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Boof02671
Posts: 2443
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:53 pm

You do realize airlines are a low profit margin business?
 
Opus99
Posts: 1295
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:57 pm

KingB123 wrote:
Galwayman wrote:
If Virgin hasnt been able to make profits and build up reserves over all these years , it’s time to let it go ...


Wasn't Virgin in the red? (or still is?). I agree, the UK can survive without Virgin, survival of the fittest and no matter how many fan boys on here try to defend it. It's time to put it to rest.

Virgin is still in the red and going into this situation they only had about 82M pounds in reserves
 
anstar
Posts: 3310
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 3:49 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:59 pm

Virgin have been loss making for several years now. Why should the government prop up a company that was already losing money in the good times?
 
KingB123
Posts: 191
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:30 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:04 pm

anstar wrote:
Virgin have been loss making for several years now. Why should the government prop up a company that was already losing money in the good times?


Yup just let it float like how they let flybe float. No loss to the UK at all.
King B
 
KingB123
Posts: 191
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:30 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:05 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
You do realize airlines are a low profit margin business?



Of course I do, if you play the business right you can make your money. IAG have around £8BILLION in its reserves, enough to last it through the crisis. Others.. Well they've brought it on themselves in poor management and choices (not talking about corona)
King B
 
VS11
Posts: 1682
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2001 6:34 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:16 pm

skipness1E wrote:
As for SRB, well he burned his bridges on Brexit.


This is the real reason why VS won't be assisted.
 
delimit
Posts: 840
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:08 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:31 pm

KingB123 wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
You do realize airlines are a low profit margin business?



Of course I do, if you play the business right you can make your money. IAG have around £8BILLION in its reserves, enough to last it through the crisis. Others.. Well they've brought it on themselves in poor management and choices (not talking about corona)

IAG is posturing. 8 Billion will not be enough to last it through the crisis. It will last it long enough for Virgin to fail before they have to ask though.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5696
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:33 pm

delimit wrote:
KingB123 wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
You do realize airlines are a low profit margin business?



Of course I do, if you play the business right you can make your money. IAG have around £8BILLION in its reserves, enough to last it through the crisis. Others.. Well they've brought it on themselves in poor management and choices (not talking about corona)

IAG is posturing. 8 Billion will not be enough to last it through the crisis. It will last it long enough for Virgin to fail before they have to ask though.


Do you have IAG's burnt rate? Where did you arrive to the conclusion 8 billion is not enough?
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1445
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:37 pm

delimit wrote:
KingB123 wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
You do realize airlines are a low profit margin business?



Of course I do, if you play the business right you can make your money. IAG have around £8BILLION in its reserves, enough to last it through the crisis. Others.. Well they've brought it on themselves in poor management and choices (not talking about corona)

IAG is posturing. 8 Billion will not be enough to last it through the crisis. It will last it long enough for Virgin to fail before they have to ask though.


Indeed and the 8 bilion are not all on BA's accounts.
VS and BA should be allowed to enter administration and be fully nationalised until all of this is over and they can be privatised again, either as separate entities or as a merged entity.
 
delimit
Posts: 840
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:08 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:37 pm

tphuang wrote:
delimit wrote:
KingB123 wrote:


Of course I do, if you play the business right you can make your money. IAG have around £8BILLION in its reserves, enough to last it through the crisis. Others.. Well they've brought it on themselves in poor management and choices (not talking about corona)

IAG is posturing. 8 Billion will not be enough to last it through the crisis. It will last it long enough for Virgin to fail before they have to ask though.


Do you have IAG's burnt rate? Where did you arrive to the conclusion 8 billion is not enough?


I don't. They could be the the special flower I guess; but I'd be enormously surprised given that the rest of the industry is a dumpster fire right now.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2301
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:41 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Virgin is still in the red and going into this situation they only had about 82M pounds in reserves


Seriously? That's pitiful. Sorry for their staff but the writing should have been on the wall. I wonder how much money Delta and SRB have been sinking into them to keep them afloat?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5696
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:44 pm

delimit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
delimit wrote:
IAG is posturing. 8 Billion will not be enough to last it through the crisis. It will last it long enough for Virgin to fail before they have to ask though.


Do you have IAG's burnt rate? Where did you arrive to the conclusion 8 billion is not enough?


I don't. They could be the the special flower I guess; but I'd be enormously surprised given that the rest of the industry is a dumpster fire right now.


That is quite a bit more cash than what Southwest is holding and southwest is contemplating not taking the bailout, which means they think they can get through with the cash on hand. Which is why I asked about burn rate. IAG is huge, but given that it's almost fully grounded, how much cash is it burning through? Witthout that knowledge, it's hard to say how long they can last exactly. And of course, IAG can also seek for help for Spanish and Irish gov't if it wants to maintain the position of no bailout from British gov't.
 
Opus99
Posts: 1295
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:51 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
delimit wrote:
KingB123 wrote:


Of course I do, if you play the business right you can make your money. IAG have around £8BILLION in its reserves, enough to last it through the crisis. Others.. Well they've brought it on themselves in poor management and choices (not talking about corona)

IAG is posturing. 8 Billion will not be enough to last it through the crisis. It will last it long enough for Virgin to fail before they have to ask though.


Indeed and the 8 bilion are not all on BA's accounts.
VS and BA should be allowed to enter administration and be fully nationalised until all of this is over and they can be privatised again, either as separate entities or as a merged entity.

There's no scenario in covid 19 in which BA enters administration, out of that 8 billion BA is about 3 billion. IF they end up needing more cash urgently if not by the credit markets the government will bail them out. BA has enough to keep itself afloat till Virgin fails, which is what they are waiting for. BA is fine, virign not so much
 
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vhtje
Posts: 1246
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 12:40 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:56 pm

VS is being supported by the UK taxpayer, like any other business in the UK: furloughed staff are eligible to have their salary covered at 80% of up to £30,000 pa.

Other area of support from Government are available to businesses, but, rightly, only as a last resort and only after all avenues of other conventional commercial arrangements have been exhausted. What is not clear to me is why VS cannot raise funds it may need through other means. Its 49% parent is still worth some £12 billion. That suggests to me there are plenty of other commercial venues available to VS: both Branson and DL ought to still be able to raise serious amounts of cash, even in the current crisis.

Treasury should look away, at this time.
I only turn left when boarding aircraft. Well, mostly. All right, sometimes. OH OKAY - rarely.
 
delimit
Posts: 840
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:08 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:00 pm

tphuang wrote:
delimit wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Do you have IAG's burnt rate? Where did you arrive to the conclusion 8 billion is not enough?


I don't. They could be the the special flower I guess; but I'd be enormously surprised given that the rest of the industry is a dumpster fire right now.


That is quite a bit more cash than what Southwest is holding and southwest is contemplating not taking the bailout, which means they think they can get through with the cash on hand. Which is why I asked about burn rate. IAG is huge, but given that it's almost fully grounded, how much cash is it burning through? Witthout that knowledge, it's hard to say how long they can last exactly. And of course, IAG can also seek for help for Spanish and Irish gov't if it wants to maintain the position of no bailout from British gov't.

Sure, we're making guesses to some extent. Southwest is rumored to object to the conditions of the bailout enough to push making a decision. The jury is out on what they will do. It also depends on how long you think this will last. The airlines asking for assistance now all seem to think this is going to last more than a few months.
 
delimit
Posts: 840
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:08 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:05 pm

vhtje wrote:
VS is being supported by the UK taxpayer, like any other business in the UK: furloughed staff are eligible to have their salary covered at 80% of up to £30,000 pa.

Other area of support from Government are available to businesses, but, rightly, only as a last resort and only after all avenues of other conventional commercial arrangements have been exhausted. What is not clear to me is why VS cannot raise funds it may need through other means. Its 49% parent is still worth some £12 billion. That suggests to me there are plenty of other commercial venues available to VS: both Branson and DL ought to still be able to raise serious amounts of cash, even in the current crisis.

Treasury should look away, at this time.

The same 12 billion parent who is bleeding money from the same crisis and is on it's way to the US government to ask for relief? That one? The one which has been consistently regarded as one of the best run airlines in the industry but still had its credit rating slashed to junk? Yes I can see how you would expect they should divert money from their own survival and contribute that to Virgin.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5696
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:14 pm

I am curious how long VS has to go. 2 weeks? a month? 2 month? What are its largest cost now that a good chunk of its staff is furloughed.
 
MON
Posts: 115
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 8:54 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:14 pm

To claim Delta is unable to financially support their 49% share in VS at this time seems to be at odds with their purchase of further shares in a far larger partner airline just a few days ago, Korean Air.
 
delimit
Posts: 840
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:08 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:17 pm

MON wrote:
To claim Delta is unable to financially support their 49% share in VS at this time seems to be at odds with their purchase of further shares in a far larger partner airline just a few days ago, Korean Air.

I can't find anything about that online. I'm surprised because it should have gotten press attention in the US. Do you have a link handy?
 
al2637
Posts: 247
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2006 1:11 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:28 pm

If Virgin need a bailout, then the UK government can buy it for £1 and invest, SRB and Delta loose their shareholding.

If BA, need a bailout, the British government can buy it for £1 and invest, IAG loose their shareholding.
If EI need a bailout, the Irish government can buy it for €1 and invest, IAG loose their shareholding.
Ditto IB.

You can see why IAG don't want any of their airlines bailed out.

Government bailout means no other parties want to invest, which means the value of the shareholding is 0.

In this event, I don't see why any shareholder in any airline gets to keep their shareholding.
 
jfk777
Posts: 7422
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:29 pm

Delta probably will no let Virgin die since they are too important to their Atlantic operation. Virgin Atlantic's slots are Delta's primary way into London Heathrow.
 
MON
Posts: 115
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 8:54 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:31 pm

Delimit, Delta had a stake of 14.9% in Hanjin (Korean Air’s parent company) by this month, up from 10% in September, while KCGI had 18.6%, up from 17.1% late last year. From a Reteurs article six days ago: https://uk.reuters.com/article/korean-a ... KL4N2BK1UM
Last edited by MON on Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
KingB123
Posts: 191
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:30 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:32 pm

Many Virgin Atlatnic flyers are already moving their points out to other partners like Hilton Hotels. The writing is on the wall. It would be a miracle if this airline survived through this. If Branson can't use his wealth to prop it up (and HE CAN BTW) then good bye VS!
King B
 
KingB123
Posts: 191
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:30 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:34 pm

delimit wrote:
vhtje wrote:
VS is being supported by the UK taxpayer, like any other business in the UK: furloughed staff are eligible to have their salary covered at 80% of up to £30,000 pa.

Other area of support from Government are available to businesses, but, rightly, only as a last resort and only after all avenues of other conventional commercial arrangements have been exhausted. What is not clear to me is why VS cannot raise funds it may need through other means. Its 49% parent is still worth some £12 billion. That suggests to me there are plenty of other commercial venues available to VS: both Branson and DL ought to still be able to raise serious amounts of cash, even in the current crisis.

Treasury should look away, at this time.

The same 12 billion parent who is bleeding money from the same crisis and is on it's way to the US government to ask for relief? That one? The one which has been consistently regarded as one of the best run airlines in the industry but still had its credit rating slashed to junk? Yes I can see how you would expect they should divert money from their own survival and contribute that to Virgin.


You need to give it up. VS has no legs in this battle and will not survive.
King B
 
VS11
Posts: 1682
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2001 6:34 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:37 pm

al2637 wrote:
If Virgin need a bailout, then the UK government can buy it for £1 and invest, SRB and Delta loose their shareholding.

If BA, need a bailout, the British government can buy it for £1 and invest, IAG loose their shareholding.
If EI need a bailout, the Irish government can buy it for €1 and invest, IAG loose their shareholding.
Ditto IB.

You can see why IAG don't want any of their airlines bailed out.

Government bailout means no other parties want to invest, which means the value of the shareholding is 0.

In this event, I don't see why any shareholder in any airline gets to keep their shareholding.


Except that current conditions are not typical market conditions. It is not just one carrier but entire industry world-wide. Air travel benefits any economy immensely and air carriers cannot be started and closed off like ice-cream stands. Letting airlines fail en mass will have serious economic repercussions. It is important to look at the big picture and long-term.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 6139
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:39 pm

They should get a bailout

It is obvious the UK doesn’t firmly grasp what is about to happen to their economy... Almost every business will need some sort of government money to keep from a complete economic collapse

Thankfully, the US realized that immediately
 
NateGreat
Posts: 501
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:02 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:47 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Delta probably will no let Virgin die since they are too important to their Atlantic operation. Virgin Atlantic's slots are Delta's primary way into London Heathrow.

So, you’re saying that if Virgin fails, Delta is out of LHR? Yeah, they lose their LHR based partner. But, don’t they have their own slots at LHR that they have had since before Delta and Virgin teamed up?
 
delimit
Posts: 840
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:08 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:03 pm

MON wrote:
Delimit, Delta had a stake of 14.9% in Hanjin (Korean Air’s parent company) by this month, up from 10% in September, while KCGI had 18.6%, up from 17.1% late last year. From a Reteurs article six days ago: https://uk.reuters.com/article/korean-a ... KL4N2BK1UM

News reports on the percentage seem to disagree, Seems this happened sometime in February.
https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/d ... 00.article
I wonder how to interpret this specifically:
through “acquisition of shares due to trading”.


It's interesting to look through articles about Delta (should work for other strong performers as well). Everything is rosy until it all falls off a cliff in February.
 
cedarjet
Posts: 8868
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 1:12 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:07 pm

If the U.K. government can’t afford to run the health service properly or give disabled people (including veterans) more than £94 a week in benefits, the last thing they should be doing is giving money to heavily polluting industries.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
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aemoreira1981
Posts: 3687
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:09 pm

onwFan wrote:
Experimental wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

VS is the largest single competitor to BA long-haul, is it not? Do you think passengers will be happy paying BA prices in an environment with less competition?



There are very few routes (SEA, LAS, some Caribbean) where VS is BA's only competition.

Exactly. Actually, only MIA and LAS come to my mind. In the absence of VS, DL will definitely fly SEA. And even LAS and MIA have competition from LGW through Norwegian. If I am not mistaken, there is not a single route out of LHR flown by VS that is not flown by BA.


Norwegian (Rednose) might not survive this crisis either. If the British government decides not to rescue VS, then BA may well have a monopoly, especially on long-haul holiday. Delta can't aid since its bailout money has to remain parked in the USA.
 
KingB123
Posts: 191
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:30 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:17 pm

cedarjet wrote:
If the U.K. government can’t afford to run the health service properly or give disabled people (including veterans) more than £94 a week in benefits, the last thing they should be doing is giving money to heavily polluting industries.


This! We've other priorities at the moment, either Virgin raise the cash themselves or good bye
King B
 
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zkojq
Posts: 4447
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:58 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
VS is not critical to UK economy as its routes are covered by other airlines. It should be rescued by its shareholder, not the UK government.


VS is the largest single competitor to BA long-haul, is it not? Do you think passengers will be happy paying BA prices in an environment with less competition?


Exactly. BA having even more market power in LON (especially LHR) is not in the UK's interest.

Aceskywalker wrote:
As other people have echoed, if the UK is keen to inject money, then it should come at a cost to VS and its owners Sir RB and DL.


Agreed. Any taxpayer funded loans should come with equity.

Opus99 wrote:
and then you have bransons tax issues which ministers aren’t to hot on


Not wanting to either make this political nor to excuse anything SRB has done tax wise......but really? I think probably it has the opposite effect with the current leadership.

delimit wrote:
So, essentially, we don't like Virgin so screw those guys?


Seems to be the theme for this thread.

2175301 wrote:
When you have a major stockholder that is personally wealthy... any government bailout money should be tied to some kind of match program from the wealthy owner. Perhaps £1 government money for every £2 (or 3, 4) of the wealthy owners money.


Including Delta? I'm not opposed to what you suggest btw.

cedarjet wrote:
If half of climate science is real (and it is), we should not be subsiding heavily polluting industries


Much more than half is real and you raise a good point.

lee757 wrote:
But how does the uk gov explain and position itself having to back a corporate entity which sued the NHS, the larger group headed up by a billionaire non dom.


You're suggesting that the government doesn't like billionaire non-Doms? And they could explain their position by making existing equity holders take a haircut.

Galwayman wrote:
( it’s more of a parasite than a competitor ) and it pays its cabin crew some of the poorest wages in the industry


Nope, that would be the BA Mixed Fleet....

KingB123 wrote:
IAG have around £8BILLION in its reserves, enough to last it through the crisis.


That's what market power at the most slot constrained airport in the world will do! You do realise that IAG money has to be split between BA, Iberia, Iberia Express, Vueling, BA CityFlyer, Level Openskies and Level Anisec, right?

delimit wrote:
IAG is posturing. 8 Billion will not be enough to last it through the crisis. It will last it long enough for Virgin to fail before they have to ask though.


Indeed. I just hope that the Westminster government is consistent in whether or not they provide bailout money.... somehow I suspect that they won't be.

Opus99 wrote:
There's no scenario in covid 19 in which BA enters administration,


In times like this making such bold statements is very unwise and risks resulting in deep embarassment. :roll:
First to fly the 787-9
 
User avatar
zkojq
Posts: 4447
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:58 pm

VS11 wrote:
skipness1E wrote:
As for SRB, well he burned his bridges on Brexit.


This is the real reason why VS won't be assisted.


:checkmark: Ding ding ding ding ding we have a winner.
First to fly the 787-9
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2301
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:31 am

delimit wrote:
Sure, we're making guesses to some extent. Southwest is rumored to object to the conditions of the bailout enough to push making a decision. The jury is out on what they will do. It also depends on how long you think this will last. The airlines asking for assistance now all seem to think this is going to last more than a few months.


And WN claims that they are only cutting their May schedule by 40% while the rest of US domestic airlines are cutting flights by 70-80%. I think WN are not only an outlier but are making a huge mistake.
 
JAMBOJET
Posts: 290
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:23 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:31 am

Not sure I agree that Virgin should or shouldn't get a UK bailout, but the one person who knows VS' finances best, SRB, must know that it's not a good place to reinvest his own money with any kind of decent return or hope of return... Though I'll bet he's REALLY regretting turning down that AF/KL money right now. https://thepointsguy.com/news/richard-b ... -klm-pact/

When your "Return to profitability" strategy is 2-3 years away and involves Flybe, I wouldn't want my money there either... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-virg ... SKCN1RM1GT
 
Opus99
Posts: 1295
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:38 am

zkojq wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
VS is not critical to UK economy as its routes are covered by other airlines. It should be rescued by its shareholder, not the UK government.


VS is the largest single competitor to BA long-haul, is it not? Do you think passengers will be happy paying BA prices in an environment with less competition?


Exactly. BA having even more market power in LON (especially LHR) is not in the UK's interest.

Aceskywalker wrote:
As other people have echoed, if the UK is keen to inject money, then it should come at a cost to VS and its owners Sir RB and DL.


Agreed. Any taxpayer funded loans should come with equity.

Opus99 wrote:
and then you have bransons tax issues which ministers aren’t to hot on


Not wanting to either make this political nor to excuse anything SRB has done tax wise......but really? I think probably it has the opposite effect with the current leadership.

delimit wrote:
So, essentially, we don't like Virgin so screw those guys?


Seems to be the theme for this thread.

2175301 wrote:
When you have a major stockholder that is personally wealthy... any government bailout money should be tied to some kind of match program from the wealthy owner. Perhaps £1 government money for every £2 (or 3, 4) of the wealthy owners money.


Including Delta? I'm not opposed to what you suggest btw.

cedarjet wrote:
If half of climate science is real (and it is), we should not be subsiding heavily polluting industries


Much more than half is real and you raise a good point.

lee757 wrote:
But how does the uk gov explain and position itself having to back a corporate entity which sued the NHS, the larger group headed up by a billionaire non dom.


You're suggesting that the government doesn't like billionaire non-Doms? And they could explain their position by making existing equity holders take a haircut.

Galwayman wrote:
( it’s more of a parasite than a competitor ) and it pays its cabin crew some of the poorest wages in the industry


Nope, that would be the BA Mixed Fleet....

KingB123 wrote:
IAG have around £8BILLION in its reserves, enough to last it through the crisis.


That's what market power at the most slot constrained airport in the world will do! You do realise that IAG money has to be split between BA, Iberia, Iberia Express, Vueling, BA CityFlyer, Level Openskies and Level Anisec, right?

delimit wrote:
IAG is posturing. 8 Billion will not be enough to last it through the crisis. It will last it long enough for Virgin to fail before they have to ask though.


Indeed. I just hope that the Westminster government is consistent in whether or not they provide bailout money.... somehow I suspect that they won't be.

Opus99 wrote:
There's no scenario in covid 19 in which BA enters administration,


In times like this making such bold statements is very unwise and risks resulting in deep embarassment. :roll:

Its not unwise to make such a statement like actually think about it. BA entering administration? BA is not virgin, the UK economy does not need virgin, the uk economy needs BA. And if government has to bail them out they will and that’s that.

You’re clearly very hot on Virgin Atlantic surviving. Well I wish them the best. I don’t think they should be bailed out because their financials weren’t that great before covid 19 anyway and it will take time for the government to see any rerun if they invest in them
 
jfk777
Posts: 7422
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:49 am

NateGreat wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Delta probably will no let Virgin die since they are too important to their Atlantic operation. Virgin Atlantic's slots are Delta's primary way into London Heathrow.

So, you’re saying that if Virgin fails, Delta is out of LHR? Yeah, they lose their LHR based partner. But, don’t they have their own slots at LHR that they have had since before Delta and Virgin teamed up?


Delta has a limited portfolio of LHR slots themselves. Delta flights tend to be from their hubs to Heathrow, Virgin gives them cities like LAX. SFO and Miami where Delta doesn't have their own flights. Delta needs Virgin far more than Virgin needing Delta.
 
skipness1E
Posts: 4877
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:03 am

jfk777 wrote:
NateGreat wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Delta probably will no let Virgin die since they are too important to their Atlantic operation. Virgin Atlantic's slots are Delta's primary way into London Heathrow.

So, you’re saying that if Virgin fails, Delta is out of LHR? Yeah, they lose their LHR based partner. But, don’t they have their own slots at LHR that they have had since before Delta and Virgin teamed up?


Delta has a limited portfolio of LHR slots themselves. Delta flights tend to be from their hubs to Heathrow, Virgin gives them cities like LAX. SFO and Miami where Delta doesn't have their own flights. Delta needs Virgin far more than Virgin needing Delta.

With Delta, VS just about make money as they have a partner. WITHOUT Delta, no one major feeds VS at the US end, whereas BA have American and United and Delta have huge onward networks. Without Delta, VS are a point to point carrier competing with network carriers in a cut throat market, marginalised and at a competitive disadvantage. Medium term, without Delta or a.n.other, VS will be squeezed out, they’re gonna die. The only reason VS bounced back, was Delta gave them focus and connections!
Last edited by skipness1E on Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
skipness1E
Posts: 4877
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:03 am

skipness1E wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
NateGreat wrote:
So, you’re saying that if Virgin fails, Delta is out of LHR? Yeah, they lose their LHR based partner. But, don’t they have their own slots at LHR that they have had since before Delta and Virgin teamed up?


Delta has a limited portfolio of LHR slots themselves. Delta flights tend to be from their hubs to Heathrow, Virgin gives them cities like LAX. SFO and Miami where Delta doesn't have their own flights. Delta needs Virgin far more than Virgin needing Delta.

With Delta, VS just about make money as they have a partner. WITHOUT Delta, no one feed VS at the US end, whereas BA have American and United and Delta have huge onward networks. Without Delta, VS are a point to point carrier competing with network carriers in a cut throat market, marginalised and at a competitive disadvantage. Medium term, without Delta or a.n.other, VS will be squeezed out, they’re gonna die. The only reason VS bounced back, was Delta gave them focus and connections!
 
Caymanair
Posts: 508
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:43 am

The idea that VS shouldn't be supported in this crisis because a major shareholder is wealthy and lives overseas is ridiculous. Get over it.

The company plays a role in the British economy, and an outsized one as a very large firm. The decision to provide a lifeline from government funds must be made based on the level f public good arising from such assistance vs the negative effects of not doing so. Flybe and Thomas Cook were unfortunate but this is a substantively different scenario.
 
anstar
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Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:54 am

jfk777 wrote:
Delta probably will no let Virgin die since they are too important to their Atlantic operation. Virgin Atlantic's slots are Delta's primary way into London Heathrow.


Not that important. Delta could essentially just replace all the USA-LHR with their flights and take the slots. Not much left of VS after that.

Caymanair wrote:
The idea that VS shouldn't be supported in this crisis because a major shareholder is wealthy and lives overseas is ridiculous. Get over it.

The company plays a role in the British economy, and an outsized one as a very large firm. The decision to provide a lifeline from government funds must be made based on the level f public good arising from such assistance vs the negative effects of not doing so. Flybe and Thomas Cook were unfortunate but this is a substantively different scenario.


VS aren't that big. They only have about 40 odd aircraft. In terms of pax carried they carry about 5m a year. Flybe carried 9m and Thomas cook uk around 8m per year and they were allowed to fail.
 
Caymanair
Posts: 508
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:30 am

anstar wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Delta probably will no let Virgin die since they are too important to their Atlantic operation. Virgin Atlantic's slots are Delta's primary way into London Heathrow.


Not that important. Delta could essentially just replace all the USA-LHR with their flights and take the slots. Not much left of VS after that.

Caymanair wrote:
The idea that VS shouldn't be supported in this crisis because a major shareholder is wealthy and lives overseas is ridiculous. Get over it.

The company plays a role in the British economy, and an outsized one as a very large firm. The decision to provide a lifeline from government funds must be made based on the level f public good arising from such assistance vs the negative effects of not doing so. Flybe and Thomas Cook were unfortunate but this is a substantively different scenario.


VS aren't that big. They only have about 40 odd aircraft. In terms of pax carried they carry about 5m a year. Flybe carried 9m and Thomas cook uk around 8m per year and they were allowed to fail.



At the time that Thomas Cook failed, you could have reasonably assumed that the free market would provide any services required to fill the void. You could have also reasonably assumed that the employees would be able to find new employment within a year. Thomas Cook's mission also wasn't economy-critical in the same manner... Brits heading out on cheap package holidays take more from the economy than they put back in. Flybe perhaps collapsed too early for it's own good.. I might have stepped in to save them, but the government made the judgement that their demise would cause only short term hurt.

The situation today is much different. Unemployment is soaring and the prospects for the newly unemployed aren't good... that's a significant cost to government. We can't reasonably expect any company to grow in the short to medium term to fill voids that don't yet exist, and the likelihood of 8,500 airline workers finding new jobs in the next 2 years is slim. One can argue this isn't the time to let market economics dictate things exclusively. I'm not saying VS should or shouldn't be bailed out and I'm not even making a judgement as to how that should be done, but the lay of the land today means that governments have to re-evaluate how involved they are in the economy and whether it is, on balance, more beneficial to spend money bailing out the economy for 12-24 months or dealing with the economic fallout for 5+ years.
 
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zkojq
Posts: 4447
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:33 am

Caymanair wrote:
The idea that VS shouldn't be supported in this crisis because a major shareholder is wealthy and lives overseas is ridiculous. Get over it.

:checkmark: Anyone else feeling a theme here that people's opinion on whether or not VS recieves government help depends on how much they like/dislike SRB (and inturn how angry they are with him for opposing a certain recent UK political event). Would be interesting to map support/opposition for that event with support/opposition to government help for VS actually. :scratchchin:

Opus99 wrote:
Its not unwise to make such a statement like actually think about it. BA entering administration? BA is not virgin, the UK economy does not need virgin, the uk economy needs BA.


The words of a fanboy. :roll:

Opus99 wrote:
You’re clearly very hot on Virgin Atlantic surviving.


I'm actually fairly neutral on the matter, other than not wanting lots of people to lose their jobs and not wanting BA to have even more market power.

Same with VA. If it collapses and QF benifits, then that benifits me, but I'm mature enough to be able to take a step back and know that QF having more market power isn't going to be good for consumers nor the economy.

Opus99 wrote:
Well I wish them the best.


Yeah based on your comments here I'm finding that hard to believe.


anstar wrote:
They only have about 40 odd aircraft. In terms of pax carried they carry about 5m a year. Flybe carried 9m and Thomas cook uk around 8m per year and they were allowed to fail.


Yes but that's not exactly an apple for apple comparison though, is it.
First to fly the 787-9
 
Byrdluvs747
Posts: 2540
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 5:25 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:39 am

anstar wrote:

Not that important. Delta could essentially just replace all the USA-LHR with their flights and take the slots. Not much left of VS after that.


What makes you think Branson (51% owner) would just let DL strip VS of its slot portfolio? Sorry but DL becomes a small player in LHR if VS collapses.
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
NateGreat
Posts: 501
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:02 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:39 am

jfk777 wrote:
NateGreat wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Delta probably will no let Virgin die since they are too important to their Atlantic operation. Virgin Atlantic's slots are Delta's primary way into London Heathrow.

So, you’re saying that if Virgin fails, Delta is out of LHR? Yeah, they lose their LHR based partner. But, don’t they have their own slots at LHR that they have had since before Delta and Virgin teamed up?


Delta has a limited portfolio of LHR slots themselves. Delta flights tend to be from their hubs to Heathrow, Virgin gives them cities like LAX. SFO and Miami where Delta doesn't have their own flights. Delta needs Virgin far more than Virgin needing Delta.

I mean, true, for LHR routes to the US that DL does serve. They do however have ATL, JFK, BOS, DTW, MSP, SLC, PDX, and soon SEA again. Yeah, they may not be as lucrative as Washington, Miami, Chicago, Dallas, or San Francisco, depending on how O&D based all of those are. Even though DL may not be as big at LHR as AA and UA, they at least have a nice handful of daily flights from their US hubs to LHR. I wouldn’t be too surprised if DL’s LHR flights have more O&D than AMS and CDG.
 
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Antaras
Posts: 1148
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:41 am

3 months ago, VS said that it wants to be UK's second flag carrier.
Now...oops.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
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Antaras
Posts: 1148
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:48 am

It seems like flag carriers' direct opponents now are in big trouble.
The list includes AirAsia (><Malaysia AL), Virgin Atl (>< British AW), Virgin Aus (><Qantas), Hong Kong AL (>< Cathay), Bamboo AW (>< Vietnam AL). What else do I miss?
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
NateGreat
Posts: 501
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:02 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:51 am

skipness1E wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
NateGreat wrote:
So, you’re saying that if Virgin fails, Delta is out of LHR? Yeah, they lose their LHR based partner. But, don’t they have their own slots at LHR that they have had since before Delta and Virgin teamed up?


Delta has a limited portfolio of LHR slots themselves. Delta flights tend to be from their hubs to Heathrow, Virgin gives them cities like LAX. SFO and Miami where Delta doesn't have their own flights. Delta needs Virgin far more than Virgin needing Delta.

With Delta, VS just about make money as they have a partner. WITHOUT Delta, no one major feeds VS at the US end, whereas BA have American and United and Delta have huge onward networks. Without Delta, VS are a point to point carrier competing with network carriers in a cut throat market, marginalised and at a competitive disadvantage. Medium term, without Delta or a.n.other, VS will be squeezed out, they’re gonna die. The only reason VS bounced back, was Delta gave them focus and connections!

Wait, BA has UA? They’re not even in the same alliance.
 
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zkojq
Posts: 4447
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:53 am

Caymanair wrote:
The situation today is much different. Unemployment is soaring and the prospects for the newly unemployed aren't good... that's a significant cost to government. We can't reasonably expect any company to grow in the short to medium term to fill voids that don't yet exist, and the likelihood of 8,500 airline workers finding new jobs in the next 2 years is slim.


Well said. And it's also unrealistic to think that someone is going going to buy all VS' slots and start a hub at LHR to become a BA competitor. No-one believes that's going to happen (though somebody on the IB/UX thread a few weeks ago insisted that it will in MAD :lol: ). A hub is much more valuable than the sum of it's parts.

Caymanair wrote:
One can argue this isn't the time to let market economics dictate things exclusively.

Indeed. The truth is that failings to address market failure is itself anti-free-market. And that is the situation when it results in one one company gaining significant monopolistic power.

I've been very consistent on this regarding IB/UX. And on AB, come to think of it.

Whatever happens regarding VS, I hope that Easyjet is able to acquire a tonne of LHR slots.

Caymanair wrote:
the lay of the land today means that governments have to re-evaluate how involved they are in the economy and whether it is, on balance, more beneficial to spend money bailing out the economy for 12-24 months or dealing with the economic fallout for 5+ years.

:checkmark: Unfortunately every day of the pandemic is making this clearer.
First to fly the 787-9
 
onwFan
Posts: 510
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic facing collapse

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:59 am

skipness1E wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
NateGreat wrote:
So, you’re saying that if Virgin fails, Delta is out of LHR? Yeah, they lose their LHR based partner. But, don’t they have their own slots at LHR that they have had since before Delta and Virgin teamed up?


Delta has a limited portfolio of LHR slots themselves. Delta flights tend to be from their hubs to Heathrow, Virgin gives them cities like LAX. SFO and Miami where Delta doesn't have their own flights. Delta needs Virgin far more than Virgin needing Delta.

With Delta, VS just about make money as they have a partner. WITHOUT Delta, no one major feeds VS at the US end, whereas BA have American and United and Delta have huge onward networks. Without Delta, VS are a point to point carrier competing with network carriers in a cut throat market, marginalised and at a competitive disadvantage. Medium term, without Delta or a.n.other, VS will be squeezed out, they’re gonna die. The only reason VS bounced back, was Delta gave them focus and connections!

DL offers not just feed, they have a JV. And still they make a loss. In fact, all (every single one?) of DL’s JV partners are loss-making (and about to collapse), when DL is the most profitable airline in the world. Still people keep saying DL is a fantastic partner for them despite evidence being contradictory.
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