Boeing74741R wrote:tphuang wrote:Arion640 wrote:
BA usually hover at about £300 return from heathrow but have seen it as low as £240 return.
You are far more likely to see lower fares if those LHR slots go to someone else. There is a long list on the LHR slot waiting list who are willing to come in and lower the fares.
Specifically for London-New York? Unlikely to be significantly cheaper than that I'd say, especially as APD would be reflected in the cost of the final ticket. Currently APD is £80 for Y passengers (as well as VS PE passengers) and £176 for business class or higher (or basically anything with legroom at 40" or greater). Add on top that whatever LHR's fees are which are reportedly not cheap and the cost of buying LHR slots to begin with, I'm not sure fares can go any lower to a point where it's possible to make money. Also if an airline can get away with charging more or whatever the market will bear, you bet they will.
£240 return is great if you can snag it, but I bet most of the costs on that flight would have already been earned in First/Club World so they can afford to sell Y seats cheaply as it's just profit. I've even had BA employees tell me up front is where their money is made and the back is where they just make extra profit. Compare that to an alternate airline of your choice such as a LCC who need the Y fares to cover more of the costs.
I recall tphuang mentioning JetBlue in this thread a few times in the past. Besides the fact they don't yet have the aircraft to do the flight and having little-to-no brand awareness this side of the Atlantic Ocean, it wouldn't surprise me if COVID-19 delays their TATL aspirations for a few years. Additionally, I still think JetBlue would be better off serving another London airport initially to test the market. Those who've been seeking very low TATL fares haven't grumbled at going to LGW for Norwegian or STN when Primera were still in business.
No, JetBlue is looking to get as many slots at LHR as it possibly could. It's TATL might get delayed until 2022, but that would be it. They will significantly cut the J fares if they can offer a reasonable schedule.
Keep in mind, VS itself does not offer any additional competition in the TATL market, since its JV partner will still be around and likely to get some of its slots. Aside from JetBlue, Easyjet and chinese carriers can all add additional competition which VS simply does not provide. The competition argument for VS is very weak.