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PW100
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Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

Wed May 13, 2020 3:58 pm

VS11 wrote:
[I said this before but here we go again. In the next 3 years:
Is BA going to send 4 huge jets to Boston? NO.
Is BA going to send 6-8 huge jets to NYC? NO.
Is BA going to decrease its flights/capacity to Miami? YES. Same for LAX and SFO.
These are high yielding lucrative markets where BA's cuts give more room to VS


???????????????

Pre-Corona:
* If a market needed let's say 1000 seats per day;
* BA offered 800 seats per day
* VS offered 300 seats per day

Post-Corona
* Say that market now only needs 400 seats per day
* BA reduces their offering to 400 seats per day
How is that creating more room to VS? Seems to me that VS will also need to shrink proprotionally?

Or do you honestly believe that magically BA will be so kind to shrink their offering to less than 200 seats per day?

Yes, I realize that these numbers are totally fabricated.
If that is a problem, perhaps you can offer more realistic numbers we can have a go at . . .
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
VS11
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Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

Wed May 13, 2020 3:58 pm

onwFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
VS11 wrote:

I don't see BA going for frequency. They will want to focus on minimizing their operating costs and maximizing yield per flight. That means fewer flights in general. In the case of Boston, one flight per day for the next year. If demand is strong, raise fares and/or use a bigger plane but unlikely to increase frequency. The market for more frequencies will be almost non-existent. The overall market will be certainly much smaller and every player will compete fiercely. But 1 VS flight a day against 1 BA flight a day is better (for VS) than 1 VS flight a day against 4 BA flights a day.


so you are basically dreaming up of a scenario where VS will survive. I don't see why BA would give up on frequency when they have the market dominated.

Exactly. He is just dreaming of an imaginary situation where VS maintains all its capacity (at a time when they have no money to even survive) and BA keeps shrinking its operation on all routes :-P.


Not dreaming up anything. VS already published its schedule for next year. But yes, percentage-wise its capacity reduction will be less than BA’s.
 
onwFan
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Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

Wed May 13, 2020 4:02 pm

VS11 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:

so you are basically dreaming up of a scenario where VS will survive. I don't see why BA would give up on frequency when they have the market dominated.

Exactly. He is just dreaming of an imaginary situation where VS maintains all its capacity (at a time when they have no money to even survive) and BA keeps shrinking its operation on all routes :-P.


Not dreaming up anything. VS already published its schedule for next year. But yes, percentage-wise its capacity reduction will be less than BA’s.

Given that we don’t know whether the airline will even be around next year, I am sure their published schedule is so reliable!
 
Floridian
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Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

Wed May 13, 2020 4:02 pm

As I remember late last year... Branson was going to sell 32% of his Virgin Atlantic
holdings to Air France. He was to reduce his stock to 20%.
** (49% DL, 32% AF and 20% Branson). In turn Delta was to increase
their OAL holdings 10% in Air France stock purchase.

Again, and I may be incorrect, I was told Branson canceled the deal as Virgin was
expected to do a financial turnaround in 2020.

Air France may still be interested. (COVID may have changed everything).

Am I wrong?
 
VS11
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Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

Wed May 13, 2020 4:15 pm

onwFan wrote:
VS11 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Exactly. He is just dreaming of an imaginary situation where VS maintains all its capacity (at a time when they have no money to even survive) and BA keeps shrinking its operation on all routes :-P.


Not dreaming up anything. VS already published its schedule for next year. But yes, percentage-wise its capacity reduction will be less than BA’s.

Given that we don’t know whether the airline will even be around next year, I am sure their published schedule is so reliable!


At this point, it is as reliable as any other airline's schedule.
 
VS11
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Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

Wed May 13, 2020 4:19 pm

PW100 wrote:
VS11 wrote:
[I said this before but here we go again. In the next 3 years:
Is BA going to send 4 huge jets to Boston? NO.
Is BA going to send 6-8 huge jets to NYC? NO.
Is BA going to decrease its flights/capacity to Miami? YES. Same for LAX and SFO.
These are high yielding lucrative markets where BA's cuts give more room to VS


???????????????

Pre-Corona:
* If a market needed let's say 1000 seats per day;
* BA offered 800 seats per day
* VS offered 300 seats per day

Post-Corona
* Say that market now only needs 400 seats per day
* BA reduces their offering to 400 seats per day
How is that creating more room to VS? Seems to me that VS will also need to shrink proprotionally?

Or do you honestly believe that magically BA will be so kind to shrink their offering to less than 200 seats per day?

Yes, I realize that these numbers are totally fabricated.
If that is a problem, perhaps you can offer more realistic numbers we can have a go at . . .


Please see post #1296 .
 
tphuang
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Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

Wed May 13, 2020 4:27 pm

VS11 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
VS11 wrote:

I said this before but here we go again. In the next 3 years:
Is BA going to send 4 huge jets to Boston? NO.
Is BA going to send 6-8 huge jets to NYC? NO.
Is BA going to decrease its flights/capacity to Miami? YES. Same for LAX and SFO.
These are high yielding lucrative markets where BA's cuts give more room to VS.

Additionally, BA is very likely to cut its non-stop flights to Austin, New Orleans, Nashville, Charleston, Baltimore. While VS doesn't serve these, it presents opportunities to serve them via DL. These are all in the American South where Delta rules supreme (and I am saying this as an AA flyer).

So yes, VS is not going to escape the overall market conditions but it will have more opportunities.


BA will return to these smaller markets before anyone else. Your comment about DL adding AUS/MSY/BNA/CHS/BWI is not going to happen in the current climate and they don't have the slots. VS with its weak finances will be dealing with reduced demand at a time it has no money against a much better capitalized and run airline.


1. I never claimed that DL will launch non-stop flights to these smaller markets. DL can serve them from ATL.
2. VS will be better financed because Branson is putting more money into it.
3. BA is bleeding 100m euro a week. I don't see them engaging in totally unnecessary capacity and frequency dumps.


$100 million euro a week is nothing compared to what DL is losing right now. And I see DL doing plenty of unnecessary capacity in SEA.

VS getting $500 million from Branson in a best case scenario still leads them to having no money and heavily in debt in a few months.

ATL is not the optimal place to connect for the airport you mentioned there. Can you imagine someone doing BWI-ATL-LHR? Sounds pretty insane to me.
 
VS11
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Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

Wed May 13, 2020 4:29 pm

tphuang wrote:
VS11 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

BA will return to these smaller markets before anyone else. Your comment about DL adding AUS/MSY/BNA/CHS/BWI is not going to happen in the current climate and they don't have the slots. VS with its weak finances will be dealing with reduced demand at a time it has no money against a much better capitalized and run airline.


1. I never claimed that DL will launch non-stop flights to these smaller markets. DL can serve them from ATL.
2. VS will be better financed because Branson is putting more money into it.
3. BA is bleeding 100m euro a week. I don't see them engaging in totally unnecessary capacity and frequency dumps.


$100 million euro a week is nothing compared to what DL is losing right now. And I see DL doing plenty of unnecessary capacity in SEA.

VS getting $500 million from Branson in a best case scenario still leads them to having no money and heavily in debt in a few months.

ATL is not the optimal place to connect for the airport you mentioned there. Can you imagine someone doing BWI-ATL-LHR? Sounds pretty insane to me.


People fly BOS-ATL-LHR, BOS-PHL-LHR, even backtracking to ORD.
 
tphuang
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Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

Wed May 13, 2020 4:32 pm

VS11 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
VS11 wrote:

1. I never claimed that DL will launch non-stop flights to these smaller markets. DL can serve them from ATL.
2. VS will be better financed because Branson is putting more money into it.
3. BA is bleeding 100m euro a week. I don't see them engaging in totally unnecessary capacity and frequency dumps.


$100 million euro a week is nothing compared to what DL is losing right now. And I see DL doing plenty of unnecessary capacity in SEA.

VS getting $500 million from Branson in a best case scenario still leads them to having no money and heavily in debt in a few months.

ATL is not the optimal place to connect for the airport you mentioned there. Can you imagine someone doing BWI-ATL-LHR? Sounds pretty insane to me.


People fly BOS-ATL-LHR, BOS-PHL-LHR, even backtracking to ORD.

BOS-ATL-LHR is far worse backtracking than BOS-PHL-LHR. you are getting pretty low yielding traffic doing that kind of stuff.
 
SueD
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Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

Wed May 13, 2020 5:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
VS11 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

$100 million euro a week is nothing compared to what DL is losing right now. And I see DL doing plenty of unnecessary capacity in SEA.

VS getting $500 million from Branson in a best case scenario still leads them to having no money and heavily in debt in a few months.

ATL is not the optimal place to connect for the airport you mentioned there. Can you imagine someone doing BWI-ATL-LHR? Sounds pretty insane to me.


People fly BOS-ATL-LHR, BOS-PHL-LHR, even backtracking to ORD.

BOS-ATL-LHR is far worse backtracking than BOS-PHL-LHR. you are getting pretty low yielding traffic doing that kind of stuff.


What are we really talking about - that’s not how the hub and spoke model works is it

For Delta and Virgin - Atlanta is the point of entry exit for vast network of the southern and central USA indeed from a British perspective Orlando and Miami are major onward points as are New Orleans and for Alliance card holders Dallas and so on

Competition use Houston or Dallas for similar regional functionality

Need to access the North West and Mid American states you have The twin cities and Mowtown!

JFK is a major O and D market yet the pairing will get you much of New England including Boston and Manchester (the other one !) .

Seattle for the West Coast .

What ever the situation the alliance remains with Delta at the moment and whilst scaling back the two will provide a huge range of onward city pairs on the other side of the ocean.

The fact that Virgin are focusing on the Delta hubs exemplifies the necessities of the alliance going forward .
 
jomur
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Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

Wed May 13, 2020 7:47 pm

If demand across the board drops by, lets say 50%, BA can drop 1 or 2 aircraft on many routes and still fly at a profit on the remainimg aircraft.flying the route. VS on the other hand usually would have only 1 aircraft flying a routei.which now would be 50% full and highly likely it won't be making any profit.
 
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Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

Thu May 14, 2020 12:05 am

Thread has gone off topic.
Winter is coming.
 
VS11
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WSJ: Virgin Atlantic in Talks to Raise More Than $900 Million

Thu May 14, 2020 10:39 pm

The Wall Street Journal is reporting on Deutsche Bank and other institutions in talks for funds for Virgin Atlantic.

Richard Branson’s Virgin Atlantic in Talks to Raise More Than $900 Million
https://www.wsj.com/articles/richard-br ... _lead_pos3

*Goal is about GBP 750m
*Harder to gauge how much cash is needed after the 14-day quarantine on anybody seeking to enter the UK
*Fewer key lenders or investors preferred
*Different types of financing possible - equity, convertible bonds, other types of debt
*Cerberus, Apollo, Greybull are mentioned to have been in talks
 
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DL747400
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Re: WSJ: Virgin Atlantic in Talks to Raise More Than $900 Million

Fri May 15, 2020 1:02 am

I do not believe that VS will fail, nor will they be allowed to fail.

That said, if VS fails, DL loses a significant portion of their overall LHR access currently afforded by the VS slot portfolio. It would be difficult if not impossible for DL to be able to recover from this within the foreseeable future. Slots coming on the market down the road would be expensive, requiring funds DL doesn't have and likely will not have for years down the road. VS is not too large to fail, but VS does offer somewhat meaningful competition to BA in several key markets and is an important employer in the UK.
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CX747
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Re: WSJ: Virgin Atlantic in Talks to Raise More Than $900 Million

Fri May 15, 2020 2:06 am

Dump the current A330s, cancel the order for new A330s. Take that money and pay for the new A350s that are inbound and operate a 787 & A350 fleet.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
hondah35
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Re: WSJ: Virgin Atlantic in Talks to Raise More Than $900 Million

Fri May 15, 2020 2:10 am

DL747400 wrote:
I do not believe that VS will fail, nor will they be allowed to fail.

That said, if VS fails, DL loses a significant portion of their overall LHR access currently afforded by the VS slot portfolio. It would be difficult if not impossible for DL to be able to recover from this within the foreseeable future. Slots coming on the market down the road would be expensive, requiring funds DL doesn't have and likely will not have for years down the road. VS is not too large to fail, but VS does offer somewhat meaningful competition to BA in several key markets and is an important employer in the UK.


DL might not have a choice. In order to recapitalize I am guessing the investors are going to want significant equity and I'm not sure if DL has the board votes to stop an overall equity dilution. They may find themselves owning a much smaller part of the airline if they want to be involved at all, since I am sure it could be seen as a distraction DL management does not need at the moment.
 
hondah35
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Re: WSJ: Virgin Atlantic in Talks to Raise More Than $900 Million

Fri May 15, 2020 2:12 am

DL747400 wrote:
I do not believe that VS will fail, nor will they be allowed to fail.

That said, if VS fails, DL loses a significant portion of their overall LHR access currently afforded by the VS slot portfolio. It would be difficult if not impossible for DL to be able to recover from this within the foreseeable future. Slots coming on the market down the road would be expensive, requiring funds DL doesn't have and likely will not have for years down the road. VS is not too large to fail, but VS does offer somewhat meaningful competition to BA in several key markets and is an important employer in the UK.


DL might not have a choice. In order to recapitalize I am guessing the investors are going to want significant equity and I'm not sure if DL has the board votes to stop an overall equity dilution. They may find themselves owning a much smaller part of the airline if they want to be involved at all, since I am sure it could be seen as a distraction DL management does not need at the moment.
 
strfyr51
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Re: WSJ: Virgin Atlantic in Talks to Raise More Than $900 Million

Fri May 15, 2020 2:24 am

Since Delta cannot BE majority owner of VS? It appears they might not have any choice in whether they lose some stake. Or whether their stake is diluted.
That is? Unless they intend to provide the funds to keep VS afloat.(which I doubt).
 
panamair
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Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:17 pm

Looks like Virgin Atlantic has managed to secure a US$1.25bn rescue package through private funding:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/virgin-a ... 52881.html

Both Branson’s and Delta’s equity holdings (51% and 49% respectively) will not be diluted. Delta did not contribute any cash towards this but agreed to defer fees and expenses to which it was owed by Virgin. Branson himself kicked in some £200m while a hedge fund is ponying up close to £200m.
 
VS11
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:20 pm

panamair wrote:
Looks like Virgin Atlantic has managed to secure a US$1.25bn rescue package through private funding:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/virgin-a ... 52881.html

Both Branson’s and Delta’s equity holdings (51% and 49% respectively) will not be diluted. Delta did not contribute any cash towards this but agreed to defer fees and expenses to which it was owed by Virgin. Branson himself kicked in some £200m while a hedge fund is ponying up close to £200m.


This is great news! March and April were dark months but happy a lifeline has been secured!
 
tobsw
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:36 pm

Not a lot of cash investment. Big chunk of the new cash (£370m) is going to pay refunds. Moreover, VS operations in the next 6 months (at least) are not going to be profitable either... so...
 
TC957
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:50 pm

Wishing VS well. Thing is, these hedge funds will want their money back at some point - and with interest no doubt. I hope it's all not more than just a sticking plaster when an operation is needed.
 
ethernal
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:55 pm

tobsw wrote:
Not a lot of cash investment. Big chunk of the new cash (£370m) is going to pay refunds. Moreover, VS operations in the next 6 months (at least) are not going to be profitable either... so...


It's not large compared to the majors, but for an airline in the $3B USD revenue range, $1.2B is a pretty significant cash influx. Depending on how much they can scale down operations that may be enough to survive for an extra year.
 
tobsw
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:13 pm

They are not getting a 1.2b cash influx. Read read read.


It's barely 370 million new cash.

This it how the 1.2 billion sum adds up:

"Shareholders are providing c.£600m in support over the life of The Plan including a £200m investment from Virgin Group, and the deferral of c.£400m of shareholder deferrals and waivers

Virgin Atlantic welcomes new partner Davidson Kempner Capital Management LP, a global institutional investment management firm which is providing £170m of secured financing

Creditors will support the airline with over £450m of deferrals"

https://corporate.virginatlantic.com/gb ... antic.html

Lots of deferrals and waivers. 370m is not going to make VS magically profitable. That's not going to help - sorry to tell that.
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:30 pm

Sounds to me as if the airline will be mortgaged to the max for the next few years
 
skipness1E
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:46 pm

The US will be closed until the election at the earliest, winter travel will be well down on concerns around any second wave. It’s all about getting to summer 2021 alive. At least BA have domestic and European passengers to get the airline flying.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:49 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Sounds to me as if the airline will be mortgaged to the max for the next few years

They kinda were already. They were in the middle of a fleet renewal program with 787, A330neo and A350 coming aboard as A330, A340-600 and 744 left. They really had no assets to speak of, and lots of debts.

PS: I was going to make a MAX joke, but thought better of it.
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:14 pm

skipness1E wrote:
The US will be closed until the election at the earliest, winter travel will be well down on concerns around any second wave. It’s all about getting to summer 2021 alive. At least BA have domestic and European passengers to get the airline flying.


Precisely. Between now (its only July mind you) and next May, will be the toughest periods of operations for just about every airline currently operating. Virgin managed to stave off bankruptcy for a little while longer but its a long ten months ahead. Sadly, most airlines haven't even begun to feel the full effects of the pandemic. It won't hit many of them for another six months or so. Virgin got some breathing room by getting a lot of deferrals from Delta and their own controlling group that I expect will just be written off by the aforementioned partners. The loans, with half coming from SRB, are very manageable, expecting that SRB never comes calling for his own money. Cutting a third of their workforce, ceasing operations at Gatwick, and retiring old aircraft, along with the loans and deferrals should help Virgin get to May 2021.
 
VS11
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:15 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Sounds to me as if the airline will be mortgaged to the max for the next few years


That's true for any airline at the moment.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:23 pm

tobsw wrote:
They are not getting a 1.2b cash influx. Read read read.


It's barely 370 million new cash.

This it how the 1.2 billion sum adds up:

"Shareholders are providing c.£600m in support over the life of The Plan including a £200m investment from Virgin Group, and the deferral of c.£400m of shareholder deferrals and waivers

Virgin Atlantic welcomes new partner Davidson Kempner Capital Management LP, a global institutional investment management firm which is providing £170m of secured financing

Creditors will support the airline with over £450m of deferrals"

https://corporate.virginatlantic.com/gb ... antic.html

Lots of deferrals and waivers. 370m is not going to make VS magically profitable. That's not going to help - sorry to tell that.


Good points - all I’d add is that the deferrals etc do help with the cash flow over the coming months which will obviously help.

I thought credit card providers were going to release funds Previously withheld as part of this deal - there is no express reference to this in the press release but I suspect this might indicate a return to normal operations with them in the immediate to short term.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:48 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Sadly, most airlines haven't even begun to feel the full effects of the pandemic. It won't hit many of them for another six months or so.


What are you talking about? Passenger revenues don't have much farther to decline.
 
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FlyCaledonian
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:03 pm

I can't find the news article but the BBC were reporting that the private equity loan is being secured against the landing slots at LHR.
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Boof02671
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:11 pm

Looks like Delta wrote down their investment in VS and others. They posted a $5.7 billion loss this past quarter.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:13 pm

Glad to hear a package has been put together that staves off an imminent collapse. Along with the other measures recently taken such as closing LGW, immediately retiring the 747’s and the sad loss of jobs, I am hopeful this will see them through until things pick up again.

The next unknown besides how long COVID-19 affects things is the length of time the US border remains closed and their own handling of COVID-19. VS aren’t the only airline affected by this though.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:29 pm

tobsw wrote:
Not a lot of cash investment. Big chunk of the new cash (£370m) is going to pay refunds. Moreover, VS operations in the next 6 months (at least) are not going to be profitable either... so...


Yeah, so if VS is losing £8m per day this buys them about 6 extra weeks.
 
tobsw
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:44 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
Good points - all I’d add is that the deferrals etc do help with the cash flow over the coming months which will obviously help.

I thought credit card providers were going to release funds Previously withheld as part of this deal - there is no express reference to this in the press release but I suspect this might indicate a return to normal operations with them in the immediate to short term.


That´s true, but i don´t think it´s applicable in this case. Remember, Virgins revenue is down 80-95%, so the income they have is meaningless.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:10 pm

tobsw wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
Good points - all I’d add is that the deferrals etc do help with the cash flow over the coming months which will obviously help.

I thought credit card providers were going to release funds Previously withheld as part of this deal - there is no express reference to this in the press release but I suspect this might indicate a return to normal operations with them in the immediate to short term.


That´s true, but i don´t think it´s applicable in this case. Remember, Virgins revenue is down 80-95%, so the income they have is meaningless.


Yes - albeit the deferrals must relate to reducing the level of outgoing cash flow.
 
skipness1E
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:49 pm

I suspect the reason BA haven’t formally withdrawn the B744 yet is the idea that Virgin won’t survive the winter and with Norwegian effectively nowhere, they want to be in a position to grab market share for summer 2021. It’ll be a long road back, but with the summer gone and winter likely dominated by fears of a second wave, I can’t see a way back for VS. They’re just too exposed to the US market and the US isn’t going to be on mass market radar for months, certainly not going into the winter.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:21 pm

It’s good for Virgin, but as posted the long-term outlook isn’t great. As a long-haul airlines focussed on O&D traffic between the UK and USA COVID strikes right to the heart of their business. Getting through the winter will be a challenge, but they must if they have any hope at long-term prosperity.

Virgin are a great brand, but their market has been decimated and they have the air of being financially wounded. I fear this is a similar scenario to Monarch, Thomas Cook and flyBe.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:38 pm

VS keeps highlighting that they plan to return to all of their 2019 destinations by 2022. Does this include EWR?
 
tobsw
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:54 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
VS keeps highlighting that they plan to return to all of their 2019 destinations by 2022. Does this include EWR?


Don't know whether to believe that. They should check whether their calculator is still ok. But getting rid off one third of your staff + all your 346 and 747 planes... rather difficult to match the same number of flights in 2022 vs 2019.

It's just not believable.
 
AirBourne
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Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:59 pm

skipness1E wrote:
I suspect the reason BA haven’t formally withdrawn the B744 yet is the idea that Virgin won’t survive the winter and with Norwegian effectively nowhere, they want to be in a position to grab market share for summer 2021. It’ll be a long road back, but with the summer gone and winter likely dominated by fears of a second wave, I can’t see a way back for VS. They’re just too exposed to the US market and the US isn’t going to be on mass market radar for months, certainly not going into the winter.


I think the MAN base will almost certainly be pulled next. ATL and JFK could easily be picked up by DL again with suitably smaller aircraft when demand recovers.
 
gaystudpilot
Posts: 266
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2007 10:55 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:07 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
Glad to hear a package has been put together that staves off an imminent collapse. Along with the other measures recently taken such as closing LGW, immediately retiring the 747’s and the sad loss of jobs, I am hopeful this will see them through until things pick up again.

The next unknown besides how long COVID-19 affects things is the length of time the US border remains closed and their own handling of COVID-19. VS aren’t the only airline affected by this though.


A lot of folks are mentioning the impact of COVID-19. The US economy was in a recession prior to COVID-19 being declared a pandemic. The pandemic has exacerbated the US recession and unknowns include how many other non-US economies are in recession and the depth and length of those recessions.

COVID-19 will certainly be challenging over the next couple of years while more effective treatments and vaccines are developed. The impact of floundering economic sectors will have a huge impact on leisure and business travel budgets well into 2024.

Niche carriers like VS will likely not survive — and COVID-19 will be only one reason or current “unknown.”
 
CWL757
Posts: 116
Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:43 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:12 pm

AirBourne wrote:
skipness1E wrote:
I suspect the reason BA haven’t formally withdrawn the B744 yet is the idea that Virgin won’t survive the winter and with Norwegian effectively nowhere, they want to be in a position to grab market share for summer 2021. It’ll be a long road back, but with the summer gone and winter likely dominated by fears of a second wave, I can’t see a way back for VS. They’re just too exposed to the US market and the US isn’t going to be on mass market radar for months, certainly not going into the winter.


I think the MAN base will almost certainly be pulled next. ATL and JFK could easily be picked up by DL again with suitably smaller aircraft when demand recovers.

I really can’t see MCO being dropped from MAN. That’s VS’s bread and butter. I’d imagine it will be operated the same way they operate the flights from GLA and BFS if they do close the base. I sincerely hope for MAN and the staffs sake they don’t close the base though, yet another blow to MAN and local jobs.
A319, A320, 738, 743, 744, 752, 772, 788, C150, E175, E190, F70, R22
 
Coexstud
Posts: 89
Joined: Sun Mar 16, 2008 9:48 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:27 pm

Sounds too me VA is gong to go belly up and tinker belle down sos
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13278
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:50 pm

CWL757 wrote:
I really can’t see MCO being dropped from MAN. That’s VS’s bread and butter.

Though that point is arguable; if indeed an airline's bread&butter was shuttling deal-seeking families on Mouse runs-- then that ain't gonna fly in the immediate post-COVID era, and quite frankly, neither will they. :(
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
WAC
Posts: 145
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2008 10:31 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 10:00 pm

CWL757 wrote:
AirBourne wrote:
skipness1E wrote:
I suspect the reason BA haven’t formally withdrawn the B744 yet is the idea that Virgin won’t survive the winter and with Norwegian effectively nowhere, they want to be in a position to grab market share for summer 2021. It’ll be a long road back, but with the summer gone and winter likely dominated by fears of a second wave, I can’t see a way back for VS. They’re just too exposed to the US market and the US isn’t going to be on mass market radar for months, certainly not going into the winter.


I think the MAN base will almost certainly be pulled next. ATL and JFK could easily be picked up by DL again with suitably smaller aircraft when demand recovers.

I really can’t see MCO being dropped from MAN. That’s VS’s bread and butter. I’d imagine it will be operated the same way they operate the flights from GLA and BFS if they do close the base. I sincerely hope for MAN and the staffs sake they don’t close the base though, yet another blow to MAN and local jobs.


Might be top 10 routes for VS but LHR-JFK/LAX/SFO/SEA/BOS are far more high yielding and important. Maybe a top route/destination for Virgin Holidays.
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 1141
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 10:04 pm

CWL757 wrote:
AirBourne wrote:
skipness1E wrote:
I suspect the reason BA haven’t formally withdrawn the B744 yet is the idea that Virgin won’t survive the winter and with Norwegian effectively nowhere, they want to be in a position to grab market share for summer 2021. It’ll be a long road back, but with the summer gone and winter likely dominated by fears of a second wave, I can’t see a way back for VS. They’re just too exposed to the US market and the US isn’t going to be on mass market radar for months, certainly not going into the winter.


I think the MAN base will almost certainly be pulled next. ATL and JFK could easily be picked up by DL again with suitably smaller aircraft when demand recovers.

I really can’t see MCO being dropped from MAN. That’s VS’s bread and butter. I’d imagine it will be operated the same way they operate the flights from GLA and BFS if they do close the base. I sincerely hope for MAN and the staffs sake they don’t close the base though, yet another blow to MAN and local jobs.


It’s a bizarre comment - unless you are going to argue that VS should close LHR before MAN of course MAN would be the next domino to fall. For now, thankfully, it seems that is some way off but VS will have to negotiate difficult conditions for some time to come but it is as well pleased as it reasonably can be to survive.
 
x1234
Posts: 909
Joined: Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:50 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:23 pm

Do VS destinations like PVG, HKG, DEL, BOM, TLV, LOS, JNB, CPT make money? I heard it was DL who asked VS to start BOM in addition to DEL for US connections which also feed TLV, JNB, CPT & LOS.
 
NWADTWE16
Posts: 717
Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2012 5:12 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic secures rescue package

Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:47 am

typical responses, do you all work for BA? at least get some scratch for your trolling for them sheesh. Nice one VS, live on!
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