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SpaceshipDC10
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"Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:55 pm

The airport announced on Friday it is now forecasting a 40% to 50% year-over-year decline in passengers in 2020,
(…)

Currently, the airport is experiencing between 10,000 and 20,000 passengers per day — down from the 70,000 per day it typically sees during the busy March spring break period.

“These numbers will continue to decline as Canadians finally make their way home, our visitors leave the country, and as other restrictions take effect around the world,” warned Craig Richmond, president and CEO of YVR.

He expects US transborder and international passenger volumes to further drop to near zero in the weeks to come, while domestic traffic will fall to about 30% of its normal volume.


https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouv ... rus-impact

https://www.yvr.ca/en/about-yvr/facts-and-stats

If passenger volume do indeed decline 40 to 50%, that will make a total somewhere between 13.2 and 15.84 millions, as in 1995 and 1999 respectively; and the reduction to 30% of domestic traffic makes a total of about 3.8 millions insteed of last year's 12.6.

It's only the beginning of hard times, but I wonder how long, how many years will it take to recover to the pre-Covid-19 level?
 
whywhyzee
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:37 pm

If you look at 2008, traffic rebounded fairly quickly. 9/11 took a bit longer, but that was a different event entirely. From a financial perspective, there's nothing to say things won't start back on the upswing this year. It's a question of getting the general public back onto planes and I think that will come fairly quick. Won't be this year, but by S21, I imagine things will be much closer to normal, if that word even exists anymore.
 
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cirrusdragoon
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:22 pm

The underlying global integration, economic growth and increasing consumer incomes and leisure time that has driven demand for these services faster than GDP growth for decades should continue to do so as the world recovers from the Covid-19 shock. How the industry serves that growth as it evolves out of the crisis will depend on several key factors .

Volume will probably not regain its peak for at least 3-5 years depending on the distance segment.
Pricing recovery could lag volume recovery by at least a year.
Business travel could recover more quickly than leisure travel, but at a permanently lower level.
Long-haul narrow body aircraft could change the nature of international networks by replacing hub and spoke models with point-to-point flying.
Regional travel could move from an expensive business-oriented model to a cheaper leisure-oriented model.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:59 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
If you look at 2008, traffic rebounded fairly quickly. 9/11 took a bit longer, but that was a different event entirely. From a financial perspective, there's nothing to say things won't start back on the upswing this year. It's a question of getting the general public back onto planes and I think that will come fairly quick. Won't be this year, but by S21, I imagine things will be much closer to normal, if that word even exists anymore.

The issue is global small businesses under lockdown. Too many won't rebound quickly.

Summer season is the profit season. If missed (likely), the earliest recovery back to full traffic is going into summer 2021.


Airlines must be conservative on service offered at the restart. They are unlikely to grow beyond 70% of prior capacity in 2020.

SARS effected a small portion of global GNP. 9/11 was one country. Add to that the lack of personal and small to midsize corporate savings and many won't fly.

I've flown into Vancouver to go on a cruise. What arr everyone's predictions for 2020 cruise demand?

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
ual4life
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:12 am

whywhyzee wrote:
If you look at 2008, traffic rebounded fairly quickly. 9/11 took a bit longer, but that was a different event entirely. From a financial perspective, there's nothing to say things won't start back on the upswing this year. It's a question of getting the general public back onto planes and I think that will come fairly quick. Won't be this year, but by S21, I imagine things will be much closer to normal, if that word even exists anymore.


There are multiple bridges for sale that I can sell you.
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ACCS300
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:17 am

Took a drive along the terminal loop the other day, total ghost town, maybe 3 -5 vehicles along the entire length of the international and domestic terminals, a sight we'll likely never see again.

1995 levels would take the traffic back to when there was only the present-day domestic terminal as the international terminal came online in 1996.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:36 am

whywhyzee wrote:
If you look at 2008, traffic rebounded fairly quickly. 9/11 took a bit longer, but that was a different event entirely. From a financial perspective, there's nothing to say things won't start back on the upswing this year. It's a question of getting the general public back onto planes and I think that will come fairly quick. Won't be this year, but by S21, I imagine things will be much closer to normal, if that word even exists anymore.

The flaw in that analysis, is failure to take into account to advance of other technologies, and the increase in capability of those tech since 2001/2008.

When e-commerce grabs portions of the former aviation business, history tells us that it doesn't let go.
Where are family travel agents and contract air-couriers nowadays? Essentially non-existent.

There'll always been some need for business travel. But the longer people meet/email/exchange from home, the lower and lower that need will be.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
smokeybandit
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:17 am

whywhyzee wrote:
If you look at 2008, traffic rebounded fairly quickly. 9/11 took a bit longer, but that was a different event entirely. From a financial perspective, there's nothing to say things won't start back on the upswing this year. It's a question of getting the general public back onto planes and I think that will come fairly quick. Won't be this year, but by S21, I imagine things will be much closer to normal, if that word even exists anymore.


This will be more like 9/11 than 2008 since there's a fear factor involved. It will take a lot of people a long time to feel comfortable in a confined space, even in a bar or restaurant, none the less a plane.
 
9252fly
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:10 am

lightsaber wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
If you look at 2008, traffic rebounded fairly quickly. 9/11 took a bit longer, but that was a different event entirely. From a financial perspective, there's nothing to say things won't start back on the upswing this year. It's a question of getting the general public back onto planes and I think that will come fairly quick. Won't be this year, but by S21, I imagine things will be much closer to normal, if that word even exists anymore.

The issue is global small businesses under lockdown. Too many won't rebound quickly.

Summer season is the profit season. If missed (likely), the earliest recovery back to full traffic is going into summer 2021.


Airlines must be conservative on service offered at the restart. They are unlikely to grow beyond 70% of prior capacity in 2020.

SARS effected a small portion of global GNP. 9/11 was one country. Add to that the lack of personal and small to midsize corporate savings and many won't fly.

I've flown into Vancouver to go on a cruise. What arr everyone's predictions for 2020 cruise demand?

Lightsaber


Based on the number of cruise ships being forced to stay out at sea due ports refusing to accept them, I would say the horror stories of these covid death ships will put a damper on the cruise season.
 
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seahawk
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:01 am

smokeybandit wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
If you look at 2008, traffic rebounded fairly quickly. 9/11 took a bit longer, but that was a different event entirely. From a financial perspective, there's nothing to say things won't start back on the upswing this year. It's a question of getting the general public back onto planes and I think that will come fairly quick. Won't be this year, but by S21, I imagine things will be much closer to normal, if that word even exists anymore.


This will be more like 9/11 than 2008 since there's a fear factor involved. It will take a lot of people a long time to feel comfortable in a confined space, even in a bar or restaurant, none the less a plane.


This is correct. As long a as flying poses a real risk to your health, people will avoid to fly.
 
SCQ83
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:37 am

whywhyzee wrote:
If you look at 2008, traffic rebounded fairly quickly. Won't be this year, but by S21, I imagine things will be much closer to normal, if that word even exists anymore.


cirrusdragoon wrote:
Volume will probably not regain its peak for at least 3-5 years depending on the distance segment..


It took MAD 10 years to recover (2007 - 52,110,787 / 2017 - 53,402,506), so thinking that things will go back to normal in S21 is quite naive. Unemployment in Spain during the 2008 crisis hit what now is said countries like the US will get to now.

That not taking into consideration things like teleworking or ecological reasons, and of course the health issues. On top of that YVR seems like a city that will be particularly hit because of all the Chinese connections (now China is in an economic recession for the first time in +30 years).

So maybe Vancouver will recover the 2019 figures only many years in the future. If ever.
 
Toinou
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:16 am

SCQ83 wrote:
That not taking into consideration things like teleworking or ecological reasons, and of course the health issues.

I think you're perfectly showing the impressive array of factors making this to possibly be a turning point. Many people seems to be in denial those days.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:17 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
It took MAD 10 years to recover (2007 - 52,110,787 / 2017 - 53,402,506), so thinking that things will go back to normal in S21 is quite naive.


Naive is the word you want? LAX had surpassed 2007 passenger levels by 2012, and fell off by only 10% between 2007 and the trough 2009. SEA actually grew in 2008 and had regained 2007 traffic levels by 2009.
 
robsaw
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:34 pm

9252fly wrote:

Based on the number of cruise ships being forced to stay out at sea due ports refusing to accept them, I would say the horror stories of these covid death ships will put a damper on the cruise season.


Given that foreign passenger ships over 500 person capacity are currently banned until at least July 1 (i.e. Alaska cruise season from Vancouver) and the Port of Seattle has indefinitely closed their cruise terminal, combined with the fear-factor, will either seriously diminish or wipe-out the 2020 Alaska Cruise Season. I have serious doubts that Canada will lift the passenger ship ban on July 1.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:26 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
If you look at 2008, traffic rebounded fairly quickly. 9/11 took a bit longer, but that was a different event entirely. From a financial perspective, there's nothing to say things won't start back on the upswing this year. It's a question of getting the general public back onto planes and I think that will come fairly quick. Won't be this year, but by S21, I imagine things will be much closer to normal, if that word even exists anymore.



This is totally different than 9/11 or the 2008 downturn. For one the economy is taking a beating much worse. Look at unemployment last week people won't have income for a long time for leisure to come back. Leisure people are going to drive for trips the rest of the year. The main difference is people were not afraid of the actual planes in those situations.

Until there is a vaccine business cannot make people fly. Period. Also video conferencing as become alot more familiar and works for at least half of what people use to travel for.

Leisure people huge amount will just be afraid to fly, and a huge amount will be recovering from months of no income. This will take a long long time to recover. There will not be a quick bounce back at all.
 
SpaceshipDC10
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:52 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Leisure people huge amount will just be afraid to fly, and a huge amount will be recovering from months of no income. This will take a long long time to recover. There will not be a quick bounce back at all.


Not only leisure people are afraid of flying, but when you think of all the crowded destinations they usually travel to, this will not help them, besides the money matters.
 
SpaceshipDC10
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:40 pm

Lately, only 3,000 passengers each day are going through YVR. That's 4% of the usual volume. At the rate, the airport will see, give or take, 90,000 travellers in April.


https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouv ... ril-7-2020
 
Dominion301
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:54 pm

I think the thread title needs to be revised to read '1965 levels'.

YVR at 3,000/day is proportional to YYZ's reported 5,000/day, which is proportional to YOW's reported 300-800/day, which is proportional to 0-100/day for smaller airports.

Excluding Jan/Feb, YYZ will still be the busiest airport, but will be on par with YQB, while YVR will look like what YXX was in their record-setting 2019, while YOW will look like YKA or YDF.
 
raylee67
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Re: "Vancouver (YVR) passenger volumes to return to 1995 levels this year"

Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:17 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
I think the thread title needs to be revised to read '1965 levels'..


Yes, I fully agree that we are looking at "1965 level" here, if not "1945 level". And not just YVR. We are going to see 1965 or 1945 level globally. HKG is receiving less than 1000 arrivals daily. For an airport that carried 71 million passengers in 2019 (and that's already a reduction from 2018 due to severe civil unrest locally), that translates to 30,000 arrivals a month, i.e. a 99% drop.

Travel is not going to rebound soon, because
1. people were told to stay home, and that will most likely continue until late May or early June for Canada
2. most people have lost their jobs or afraid of losing their jobs, so even after the crisis passes, they are not going to spend on non-essential items like vacationing
3. the disease is not going away soon, so people will be wary of getting stranded in the middle of their travel (by sudden border closure and flight cancellation, etc.), even after this outbreak passes and business returns with the "new normal" with low number of cases continuing in the background
4. business travel will drop a lot in the immediate term as businesses cut back on expenses, even after business resumes
5. the worst part is that business travel demands will drop even in the long term since
(a) business found that it's actually not too bad to video conference, and although there are things that really cannot be done and deals that really cannot be closed without personal meetings, the crisis would prove that some (or actually many) so-called essential meetings and business travels are really not
(b) business starts to re-think their supply chains and reduce reliance on global supply chain, so more goods and components will be sourced closer to where the consumers are, reducing the need to travel, especially long range travel
(c) countries re-think about their national security (e.g. no one will want to have to fight to get PPEs from other countries any more), so there will be more products that will be classified as strategic items and will be produced domestically (e.g. medical equipment, pharmaceutical components, drugs), reducing international trades and thus the need for business travel for those industries

My last flight was on Feb 5, from ORD to HKG. The outbreak had not reached US at that time (or may be it's just it's not discovered yet at that time), but I wiped down the seat, the table, PTV screen, the seat belt and even the handle of the overhead bin with 70% alcohol wipes before I sat down and opened the bin. I don't want to have to clean the plane every time I fly. Many people will probably have the same thought. Personal and business travels will be depressed severely for a long time.
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