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gdavis003
Posts: 111
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:59 am

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:35 am

United1 wrote:
gdavis003 wrote:
T5towbar wrote:

Not including the E175 type gates at Terminal C, which are a about 6 or 7, (that also get the E145 YQB flight that has to arrive in customs at B or C), and if you ran a summer peak schedule, UAX was a 21 gate operation for E145 type jets (16 gates at Term A; 5 hardstand gates at C) Out of those 16 Gates at A, 6 could be used for E175 type aircraft without shutting down a adjacent gate. If needed and UAX was shut down due to weather, Terminal A could handle 5 or 6 737/320 type aircraft, by shutting down adjacent gates. Which has been done before when UAX was shut down and mainline needed gates for arrivals. A couple of those gates could also handle a 757 as well. I'm quite sure that any new gates needed would be a mix of mainline and express. I think that C5 was in the process of a small build up since ExpressJet was supposed to fly the E175, but that was changed, and those aforementioned carriers was to team up to fly those planes. Republic and GoJet would fly the larger aircraft. 16 E145 gates that can also handle 6 E170/C550 without any gate closure would fit into a 10 gate mainline footprint. That is what A-2 is/was at present. Now everything is in C for the foreseeable future.

Oh, and that fiasco with Gate 40-41 was IIRC, had something to do with the leaving of JFK, and DL received the slots which let UA use those two gates. Someone with more knowledge of the deal, help me out. It lasted for 1 summer, and DL took back the gates.


When did UA use 40-41? Last time I was there flying DL, those gates were being used by Spirit


Last summer UA used them for a few flights as A2 and C gates were packed. They are common use gates so theoretically UA could still use them but they didn't plan on needing them this year even before Covid19.

Right now UA is using C for all departures and domestic arrivals. UAs international arrivals are going into B as the C FIS is temporarily closed.


Ah I see. Yeah when I flew to LHR in January, I flew out of C on UA and then flew into B when arriving back at EWR from LIS
 
United1
Posts: 4164
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:50 am

gdavis003 wrote:
United1 wrote:
gdavis003 wrote:

When did UA use 40-41? Last time I was there flying DL, those gates were being used by Spirit


Last summer UA used them for a few flights as A2 and C gates were packed. They are common use gates so theoretically UA could still use them but they didn't plan on needing them this year even before Covid19.

Right now UA is using C for all departures and domestic arrivals. UAs international arrivals are going into B as the C FIS is temporarily closed.


Ah I see. Yeah when I flew to LHR in January, I flew out of C on UA and then flew into B when arriving back at EWR from LIS


Closing Cs' FIS is new and happened after your flights in January. UA normally has international flights arrive at both C and B as neither has enough capacity for all of UAs international service. This change is temporary and is related to FIS staffing at EWR and because there simply isn't enough international service at EWR to justify keeping both open.

Normally:
Terminal A2 - UAX arrivals and departures
Terminal B2/B3 - some UA international arrivals
Terminal C - All UA mainline departures, most UA international arrivals as well as UAX arrivals and departures.

Right now:
Terminal A2 - temporarily closed
Terminal B2/B3 - all UA international arrivals
Terminal C - domestic UA arrivals and all UA departures
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
United1
Posts: 4164
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:54 am

ddaly241 wrote:
United1 wrote:
gdavis003 wrote:

When did UA use 40-41? Last time I was there flying DL, those gates were being used by Spirit


Last summer UA used them for a few flights as A2 and C gates were packed. They are common use gates so theoretically UA could still use them but they didn't plan on needing them this year even before Covid19.

Right now UA is using C for all departures and domestic arrivals. UAs international arrivals are going into B as the C FIS is temporarily closed.


I'm guessing that will all change when the new terminal 1 is built. United will be able to shift some of their operations into the new terminal 1, and it will give some room for terminal C.


UA will be the "anchor" Tennant in T1 and yeah it should open up a little room in TC.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:16 am

In the future, how many gates would EWR have in total by 2030 or 2040?
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:14 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
I think I’m ideal world we see 4 terminals with 6 concourses.

UA can have terminals ‘1’ and ‘2’ with 56 gates for domestic departures and another 20-28 international gates.

Foreign carriers could use terminal ‘3’ with 20 gates and United would be kept out of this terminal.

Domestic carriers could finally all Consolidate to one terminal (‘4’) with 56 gates. United would also operate an express operation from out of here.


So far, the gate operation is for the new terminal 1 at 33 gates (expandable to 45), the new terminal 2, which looks like it has 40 gates. Currently terminal C has 68 gates, which is going to be replaced by terminal 3 in the future. So before terminal 3 is built, EWR should have 153 gates max.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5201
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:29 pm

Will be interesting to see what happens at EWR post this crisis.

Things to consider:
1) Will there be slot opening up at LGA/JFK? If there are, could we see more ULCC presence in those airports? That would affect which ULCCs are interested in sticking it out at EWR
2) What is UA's presence looking like post COVID?
3) Will NK/F9 stick around at EWR post COVID?
4) Does B6 shrink post COVID and consolidate at JFK?

I'd be shocked if EWR traffic doesn't come down quite a bit for 2020/2021. After that, how much does UA dominate the airport? Will it be more/equal/less than pre-COVID?
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:38 pm

tphuang wrote:
Will be interesting to see what happens at EWR post this crisis.

Things to consider:
1) Will there be slot opening up at LGA/JFK? If there are, could we see more ULCC presence in those airports? That would affect which ULCCs are interested in sticking it out at EWR
2) What is UA's presence looking like post COVID?
3) Will NK/F9 stick around at EWR post COVID?
4) Does B6 shrink post COVID and consolidate at JFK?

I'd be shocked if EWR traffic doesn't come down quite a bit for 2020/2021. After that, how much does UA dominate the airport? Will it be more/equal/less than pre-COVID?


I've actually heard rumors that B6 would expand in EWR, but I doubt it, because EWR still is slot restricted. However, with NK and F9, I'm not sure what's going to happen. UA has about 68% of flights over the other airlines, which makes it the dominant airline. However, I'm not sure if UA will dominate EWR less or more. I would say probably more, because after when the new terminal 1 opens, they would probably be the main anchor of that terminal.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1152
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:43 pm

tphuang wrote:
Will be interesting to see what happens at EWR post this crisis.

Things to consider:
1) Will there be slot opening up at LGA/JFK? If there are, could we see more ULCC presence in those airports? That would affect which ULCCs are interested in sticking it out at EWR
2) What is UA's presence looking like post COVID?
3) Will NK/F9 stick around at EWR post COVID?
4) Does B6 shrink post COVID and consolidate at JFK?

I'd be shocked if EWR traffic doesn't come down quite a bit for 2020/2021. After that, how much does UA dominate the airport? Will it be more/equal/less than pre-COVID?


1.) There are plenty of slots open at JFK already. Why would any LCC carrier want to move to JFK? I don’t believe they would have any terminal to feed into except Terminal 4 which I’m sure DL would not allow. No LCC is ‘sticking it out’ at EWR as EWR is the largest domestic airport in the region.
2.) EWR is UA’s crown jewel and that won’t change anytime soon.
3.) Both NK and F9 constantly expand at EWR, why would they leave?
4.) B6 has added so many routes from EWR.
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:48 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Will be interesting to see what happens at EWR post this crisis.

Things to consider:
1) Will there be slot opening up at LGA/JFK? If there are, could we see more ULCC presence in those airports? That would affect which ULCCs are interested in sticking it out at EWR
2) What is UA's presence looking like post COVID?
3) Will NK/F9 stick around at EWR post COVID?
4) Does B6 shrink post COVID and consolidate at JFK?

I'd be shocked if EWR traffic doesn't come down quite a bit for 2020/2021. After that, how much does UA dominate the airport? Will it be more/equal/less than pre-COVID?


1.) There are plenty of slots open at JFK already. Why would any LCC carrier want to move to JFK? I don’t believe they would have any terminal to feed into except Terminal 4 which I’m sure DL would not allow. No LCC is ‘sticking it out’ at EWR as EWR is the largest domestic airport in the region.
2.) EWR is UA’s crown jewel and that won’t change anytime soon.
3.) Both NK and F9 constantly expand at EWR, why would they leave?
4.) B6 has added so many routes from EWR.


I agree, with F9 becoming Newark's new focus airline, F9 would definitely expand. I don't about NK or B6 becoming new focus airlines at EWR, but they should expand once the new terminal 1 in late 2021. Not only just that, but United will always be EWR's hub, and in the future, they will dominate by expanding more flights and routes out of EWR once things are settled from COVID, and once the new terminal 1 is open and possibly expanded giving more room for terminal C.
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:50 pm

ddaly241 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Will be interesting to see what happens at EWR post this crisis.

Things to consider:
1) Will there be slot opening up at LGA/JFK? If there are, could we see more ULCC presence in those airports? That would affect which ULCCs are interested in sticking it out at EWR
2) What is UA's presence looking like post COVID?
3) Will NK/F9 stick around at EWR post COVID?
4) Does B6 shrink post COVID and consolidate at JFK?

I'd be shocked if EWR traffic doesn't come down quite a bit for 2020/2021. After that, how much does UA dominate the airport? Will it be more/equal/less than pre-COVID?


1.) There are plenty of slots open at JFK already. Why would any LCC carrier want to move to JFK? I don’t believe they would have any terminal to feed into except Terminal 4 which I’m sure DL would not allow. No LCC is ‘sticking it out’ at EWR as EWR is the largest domestic airport in the region.
2.) EWR is UA’s crown jewel and that won’t change anytime soon.
3.) Both NK and F9 constantly expand at EWR, why would they leave?
4.) B6 has added so many routes from EWR.


I agree, with F9 becoming Newark's new focus airline, F9 would definitely expand. I don't about NK or B6 becoming new focus airlines at EWR, but they should expand once the new terminal 1 in late 2021. Not only just that, but United will always be EWR's hub, and in the future, they will dominate by expanding more flights and routes out of EWR once things are settled from COVID, and once the new terminal 1 is open and possibly expanded giving more room for terminal C.


correction: they should expand once the new terminal 1 opens in late 2021.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5201
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:14 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Will be interesting to see what happens at EWR post this crisis.

Things to consider:
1) Will there be slot opening up at LGA/JFK? If there are, could we see more ULCC presence in those airports? That would affect which ULCCs are interested in sticking it out at EWR
2) What is UA's presence looking like post COVID?
3) Will NK/F9 stick around at EWR post COVID?
4) Does B6 shrink post COVID and consolidate at JFK?

I'd be shocked if EWR traffic doesn't come down quite a bit for 2020/2021. After that, how much does UA dominate the airport? Will it be more/equal/less than pre-COVID?


1.) There are plenty of slots open at JFK already. Why would any LCC carrier want to move to JFK? I don’t believe they would have any terminal to feed into except Terminal 4 which I’m sure DL would not allow. No LCC is ‘sticking it out’ at EWR as EWR is the largest domestic airport in the region.
2.) EWR is UA’s crown jewel and that won’t change anytime soon.
3.) Both NK and F9 constantly expand at EWR, why would they leave?
4.) B6 has added so many routes from EWR.


ULCCs have not had slots so far to get into JFK. That's why NK filed a complaint to DOT about AA squatting. Coming out of this, there is a good chance slot will be lifted at JFK and maybe more slots will become available at LGA for economical reasons.

EWR maybe UA's crown jewel, but in the short term, there will be a lot of reduction there. UA has made it clear that middle of the country hubs will get less cut than the coastal ones due to the belief that international will come back slower than domestic.

Why do you think NK/F9 will continue to expand at EWR? Do you think this virus changes nothing in demand? If UA can chase WN out of EWR, there is no reason in time of weaker demand, NK/F9 won't be forced to scale back their original schedules. Everyone will emerge smaller out of this.

And all of this assumes NK/F9 both survive this as independent airlines, which looks highly unlikely at the moment.

As for B6, they will cut back at EWR coming out of this, because they are at best going to be stagnant in size coming out of this. Long term, they will grow at EWR, but that's 2 or 3 years away.
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:02 pm

tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Will be interesting to see what happens at EWR post this crisis.

Things to consider:
1) Will there be slot opening up at LGA/JFK? If there are, could we see more ULCC presence in those airports? That would affect which ULCCs are interested in sticking it out at EWR
2) What is UA's presence looking like post COVID?
3) Will NK/F9 stick around at EWR post COVID?
4) Does B6 shrink post COVID and consolidate at JFK?

I'd be shocked if EWR traffic doesn't come down quite a bit for 2020/2021. After that, how much does UA dominate the airport? Will it be more/equal/less than pre-COVID?


1.) There are plenty of slots open at JFK already. Why would any LCC carrier want to move to JFK? I don’t believe they would have any terminal to feed into except Terminal 4 which I’m sure DL would not allow. No LCC is ‘sticking it out’ at EWR as EWR is the largest domestic airport in the region.
2.) EWR is UA’s crown jewel and that won’t change anytime soon.
3.) Both NK and F9 constantly expand at EWR, why would they leave?
4.) B6 has added so many routes from EWR.


ULCCs have not had slots so far to get into JFK. That's why NK filed a complaint to DOT about AA squatting. Coming out of this, there is a good chance slot will be lifted at JFK and maybe more slots will become available at LGA for economical reasons.

EWR maybe UA's crown jewel, but in the short term, there will be a lot of reduction there. UA has made it clear that middle of the country hubs will get less cut than the coastal ones due to the belief that international will come back slower than domestic.

Why do you think NK/F9 will continue to expand at EWR? Do you think this virus changes nothing in demand? If UA can chase WN out of EWR, there is no reason in time of weaker demand, NK/F9 won't be forced to scale back their original schedules. Everyone will emerge smaller out of this.

And all of this assumes NK/F9 both survive this as independent airlines, which looks highly unlikely at the moment.

As for B6, they will cut back at EWR coming out of this, because they are at best going to be stagnant in size coming out of this. Long term, they will grow at EWR, but that's 2 or 3 years away.


I do agree with B6 growing out of EWR, but after the corona virus has settled, then UA would be able to get all their routes and flights back, but the question is, how long will it take for all of these airlines including UA to get all the flights back, and will some airlines leave or stay at EWR?
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1152
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:09 pm

tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Will be interesting to see what happens at EWR post this crisis.

Things to consider:
1) Will there be slot opening up at LGA/JFK? If there are, could we see more ULCC presence in those airports? That would affect which ULCCs are interested in sticking it out at EWR
2) What is UA's presence looking like post COVID?
3) Will NK/F9 stick around at EWR post COVID?
4) Does B6 shrink post COVID and consolidate at JFK?

I'd be shocked if EWR traffic doesn't come down quite a bit for 2020/2021. After that, how much does UA dominate the airport? Will it be more/equal/less than pre-COVID?


1.) There are plenty of slots open at JFK already. Why would any LCC carrier want to move to JFK? I don’t believe they would have any terminal to feed into except Terminal 4 which I’m sure DL would not allow. No LCC is ‘sticking it out’ at EWR as EWR is the largest domestic airport in the region.
2.) EWR is UA’s crown jewel and that won’t change anytime soon.
3.) Both NK and F9 constantly expand at EWR, why would they leave?
4.) B6 has added so many routes from EWR.


ULCCs have not had slots so far to get into JFK. That's why NK filed a complaint to DOT about AA squatting. Coming out of this, there is a good chance slot will be lifted at JFK and maybe more slots will become available at LGA for economical reasons.

EWR maybe UA's crown jewel, but in the short term, there will be a lot of reduction there. UA has made it clear that middle of the country hubs will get less cut than the coastal ones due to the belief that international will come back slower than domestic.

Why do you think NK/F9 will continue to expand at EWR? Do you think this virus changes nothing in demand? If UA can chase WN out of EWR, there is no reason in time of weaker demand, NK/F9 won't be forced to scale back their original schedules. Everyone will emerge smaller out of this.

And all of this assumes NK/F9 both survive this as independent airlines, which looks highly unlikely at the moment.

As for B6, they will cut back at EWR coming out of this, because they are at best going to be stagnant in size coming out of this. Long term, they will grow at EWR, but that's 2 or 3 years away.


You are making things up. NK filed a lawsuit to the DOT about WN’s slots use at EWR. Nothing was ever mentioned about AA. With IAD and ORD both losing their international routes in the short term I could see UA using EWR as a connecter for their transatlantic flights. I never said NK and F9 would expand at EWR in the future but I wouldn’t be shocked.
 
codc10
Posts: 2869
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:16 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
I never said NK and F9 would expand at EWR in the future but I wouldn’t be shocked.


I'm not terribly optimistic about F9's prospects.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5201
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:25 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

1.) There are plenty of slots open at JFK already. Why would any LCC carrier want to move to JFK? I don’t believe they would have any terminal to feed into except Terminal 4 which I’m sure DL would not allow. No LCC is ‘sticking it out’ at EWR as EWR is the largest domestic airport in the region.
2.) EWR is UA’s crown jewel and that won’t change anytime soon.
3.) Both NK and F9 constantly expand at EWR, why would they leave?
4.) B6 has added so many routes from EWR.


ULCCs have not had slots so far to get into JFK. That's why NK filed a complaint to DOT about AA squatting. Coming out of this, there is a good chance slot will be lifted at JFK and maybe more slots will become available at LGA for economical reasons.

EWR maybe UA's crown jewel, but in the short term, there will be a lot of reduction there. UA has made it clear that middle of the country hubs will get less cut than the coastal ones due to the belief that international will come back slower than domestic.

Why do you think NK/F9 will continue to expand at EWR? Do you think this virus changes nothing in demand? If UA can chase WN out of EWR, there is no reason in time of weaker demand, NK/F9 won't be forced to scale back their original schedules. Everyone will emerge smaller out of this.

And all of this assumes NK/F9 both survive this as independent airlines, which looks highly unlikely at the moment.

As for B6, they will cut back at EWR coming out of this, because they are at best going to be stagnant in size coming out of this. Long term, they will grow at EWR, but that's 2 or 3 years away.


You are making things up. NK filed a lawsuit to the DOT about WN’s slots use at EWR. Nothing was ever mentioned about AA. With IAD and ORD both losing their international routes in the short term I could see UA using EWR as a connecter for their transatlantic flights. I never said NK and F9 would expand at EWR in the future but I wouldn’t be shocked.


There was definitely a complaint filed by NK regarding AA's slot squatting, hence all the efforts by JetBlue to use its JFK slots prior to the current situation. Whether they intend to try JFK after this is a whole different story.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1152
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:30 pm

tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:

ULCCs have not had slots so far to get into JFK. That's why NK filed a complaint to DOT about AA squatting. Coming out of this, there is a good chance slot will be lifted at JFK and maybe more slots will become available at LGA for economical reasons.

EWR maybe UA's crown jewel, but in the short term, there will be a lot of reduction there. UA has made it clear that middle of the country hubs will get less cut than the coastal ones due to the belief that international will come back slower than domestic.

Why do you think NK/F9 will continue to expand at EWR? Do you think this virus changes nothing in demand? If UA can chase WN out of EWR, there is no reason in time of weaker demand, NK/F9 won't be forced to scale back their original schedules. Everyone will emerge smaller out of this.

And all of this assumes NK/F9 both survive this as independent airlines, which looks highly unlikely at the moment.

As for B6, they will cut back at EWR coming out of this, because they are at best going to be stagnant in size coming out of this. Long term, they will grow at EWR, but that's 2 or 3 years away.


You are making things up. NK filed a lawsuit to the DOT about WN’s slots use at EWR. Nothing was ever mentioned about AA. With IAD and ORD both losing their international routes in the short term I could see UA using EWR as a connecter for their transatlantic flights. I never said NK and F9 would expand at EWR in the future but I wouldn’t be shocked.


There was definitely a complaint filed by NK regarding AA's slot squatting, hence all the efforts by JetBlue to use its JFK slots prior to the current situation. Whether they intend to try JFK after this is a whole different story.


Even if the complaint is true, it is only a complaint which is nothing compared to the lawsuit about EWR.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5201
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:47 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

You are making things up. NK filed a lawsuit to the DOT about WN’s slots use at EWR. Nothing was ever mentioned about AA. With IAD and ORD both losing their international routes in the short term I could see UA using EWR as a connecter for their transatlantic flights. I never said NK and F9 would expand at EWR in the future but I wouldn’t be shocked.


There was definitely a complaint filed by NK regarding AA's slot squatting, hence all the efforts by JetBlue to use its JFK slots prior to the current situation. Whether they intend to try JFK after this is a whole different story.


Even if the complaint is true, it is only a complaint which is nothing compared to the lawsuit about EWR.

hence the question of whether or not they will want to fly out of JFK once this is over. If they do, it will certainly change the equation about their NYC strategy. And that's still assuming they don't merge with someone.
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:04 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

1.) There are plenty of slots open at JFK already. Why would any LCC carrier want to move to JFK? I don’t believe they would have any terminal to feed into except Terminal 4 which I’m sure DL would not allow. No LCC is ‘sticking it out’ at EWR as EWR is the largest domestic airport in the region.
2.) EWR is UA’s crown jewel and that won’t change anytime soon.
3.) Both NK and F9 constantly expand at EWR, why would they leave?
4.) B6 has added so many routes from EWR.


ULCCs have not had slots so far to get into JFK. That's why NK filed a complaint to DOT about AA squatting. Coming out of this, there is a good chance slot will be lifted at JFK and maybe more slots will become available at LGA for economical reasons.

EWR maybe UA's crown jewel, but in the short term, there will be a lot of reduction there. UA has made it clear that middle of the country hubs will get less cut than the coastal ones due to the belief that international will come back slower than domestic.

Why do you think NK/F9 will continue to expand at EWR? Do you think this virus changes nothing in demand? If UA can chase WN out of EWR, there is no reason in time of weaker demand, NK/F9 won't be forced to scale back their original schedules. Everyone will emerge smaller out of this.

And all of this assumes NK/F9 both survive this as independent airlines, which looks highly unlikely at the moment.

As for B6, they will cut back at EWR coming out of this, because they are at best going to be stagnant in size coming out of this. Long term, they will grow at EWR, but that's 2 or 3 years away.


You are making things up. NK filed a lawsuit to the DOT about WN’s slots use at EWR. Nothing was ever mentioned about AA. With IAD and ORD both losing their international routes in the short term I could see UA using EWR as a connecter for their transatlantic flights. I never said NK and F9 would expand at EWR in the future but I wouldn’t be shocked.


Do you still mean UA as a more of an O and D hub or more of a connecting hub like DFW and IAH?
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:05 am

tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Will be interesting to see what happens at EWR post this crisis.

Things to consider:
1) Will there be slot opening up at LGA/JFK? If there are, could we see more ULCC presence in those airports? That would affect which ULCCs are interested in sticking it out at EWR
2) What is UA's presence looking like post COVID?
3) Will NK/F9 stick around at EWR post COVID?
4) Does B6 shrink post COVID and consolidate at JFK?

I'd be shocked if EWR traffic doesn't come down quite a bit for 2020/2021. After that, how much does UA dominate the airport? Will it be more/equal/less than pre-COVID?


1.) There are plenty of slots open at JFK already. Why would any LCC carrier want to move to JFK? I don’t believe they would have any terminal to feed into except Terminal 4 which I’m sure DL would not allow. No LCC is ‘sticking it out’ at EWR as EWR is the largest domestic airport in the region.
2.) EWR is UA’s crown jewel and that won’t change anytime soon.
3.) Both NK and F9 constantly expand at EWR, why would they leave?
4.) B6 has added so many routes from EWR.


ULCCs have not had slots so far to get into JFK. That's why NK filed a complaint to DOT about AA squatting. Coming out of this, there is a good chance slot will be lifted at JFK and maybe more slots will become available at LGA for economical reasons.

EWR maybe UA's crown jewel, but in the short term, there will be a lot of reduction there. UA has made it clear that middle of the country hubs will get less cut than the coastal ones due to the belief that international will come back slower than domestic.

Why do you think NK/F9 will continue to expand at EWR? Do you think this virus changes nothing in demand? If UA can chase WN out of EWR, there is no reason in time of weaker demand, NK/F9 won't be forced to scale back their original schedules. Everyone will emerge smaller out of this.

And all of this assumes NK/F9 both survive this as independent airlines, which looks highly unlikely at the moment.

As for B6, they will cut back at EWR coming out of this, because they are at best going to be stagnant in size coming out of this. Long term, they will grow at EWR, but that's 2 or 3 years away.


In my opinion, B6 and UA will be the main tenants of the new terminal 1. In that way, when the corona virus has settled, and when the new terminal is built completely in 2022, then that's when both airlines could expand.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5201
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:17 am

ddaly241 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

1.) There are plenty of slots open at JFK already. Why would any LCC carrier want to move to JFK? I don’t believe they would have any terminal to feed into except Terminal 4 which I’m sure DL would not allow. No LCC is ‘sticking it out’ at EWR as EWR is the largest domestic airport in the region.
2.) EWR is UA’s crown jewel and that won’t change anytime soon.
3.) Both NK and F9 constantly expand at EWR, why would they leave?
4.) B6 has added so many routes from EWR.


ULCCs have not had slots so far to get into JFK. That's why NK filed a complaint to DOT about AA squatting. Coming out of this, there is a good chance slot will be lifted at JFK and maybe more slots will become available at LGA for economical reasons.

EWR maybe UA's crown jewel, but in the short term, there will be a lot of reduction there. UA has made it clear that middle of the country hubs will get less cut than the coastal ones due to the belief that international will come back slower than domestic.

Why do you think NK/F9 will continue to expand at EWR? Do you think this virus changes nothing in demand? If UA can chase WN out of EWR, there is no reason in time of weaker demand, NK/F9 won't be forced to scale back their original schedules. Everyone will emerge smaller out of this.

And all of this assumes NK/F9 both survive this as independent airlines, which looks highly unlikely at the moment.

As for B6, they will cut back at EWR coming out of this, because they are at best going to be stagnant in size coming out of this. Long term, they will grow at EWR, but that's 2 or 3 years away.


In my opinion, B6 and UA will be the main tenants of the new terminal 1. In that way, when the corona virus has settled, and when the new terminal is built completely in 2022, then that's when both airlines could expand.


I have a couple of theories here. I think long term, B6 is either going to cooperate more deeply with AA or UA. If it's the later, I don't see B6 expanding much at EWR. If it's the former, then I think they will first build up their JFK a little more with leased slots from AA, but will then move to EWR after that. At this point, I see B6 as the only airline outside of UA that can have a decent size operation at EWR. I don't know how many gates they will have or if they will get additional flight "time slots" when they are ready to expand again. But could I see a flight 40 to 50 flight operation for them by 2023? sure.
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:04 am

tphuang wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

ULCCs have not had slots so far to get into JFK. That's why NK filed a complaint to DOT about AA squatting. Coming out of this, there is a good chance slot will be lifted at JFK and maybe more slots will become available at LGA for economical reasons.

EWR maybe UA's crown jewel, but in the short term, there will be a lot of reduction there. UA has made it clear that middle of the country hubs will get less cut than the coastal ones due to the belief that international will come back slower than domestic.

Why do you think NK/F9 will continue to expand at EWR? Do you think this virus changes nothing in demand? If UA can chase WN out of EWR, there is no reason in time of weaker demand, NK/F9 won't be forced to scale back their original schedules. Everyone will emerge smaller out of this.

And all of this assumes NK/F9 both survive this as independent airlines, which looks highly unlikely at the moment.

As for B6, they will cut back at EWR coming out of this, because they are at best going to be stagnant in size coming out of this. Long term, they will grow at EWR, but that's 2 or 3 years away.


In my opinion, B6 and UA will be the main tenants of the new terminal 1. In that way, when the corona virus has settled, and when the new terminal is built completely in 2022, then that's when both airlines could expand.


I have a couple of theories here. I think long term, B6 is either going to cooperate more deeply with AA or UA. If it's the later, I don't see B6 expanding much at EWR. If it's the former, then I think they will first build up their JFK a little more with leased slots from AA, but will then move to EWR after that. At this point, I see B6 as the only airline outside of UA that can have a decent size operation at EWR. I don't know how many gates they will have or if they will get additional flight "time slots" when they are ready to expand again. But could I see a flight 40 to 50 flight operation for them by 2023? sure.


I do agree with B6 expanding some of their service in EWR. What about UA and F9, will they expand?
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:09 am

ddaly241 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:

In my opinion, B6 and UA will be the main tenants of the new terminal 1. In that way, when the corona virus has settled, and when the new terminal is built completely in 2022, then that's when both airlines could expand.


I have a couple of theories here. I think long term, B6 is either going to cooperate more deeply with AA or UA. If it's the later, I don't see B6 expanding much at EWR. If it's the former, then I think they will first build up their JFK a little more with leased slots from AA, but will then move to EWR after that. At this point, I see B6 as the only airline outside of UA that can have a decent size operation at EWR. I don't know how many gates they will have or if they will get additional flight "time slots" when they are ready to expand again. But could I see a flight 40 to 50 flight operation for them by 2023? sure.


I do agree with B6 expanding some of their service in EWR. What about UA and F9, will they expand?


Here's another theory of mine, once the new terminal one is built and hopefully expanded to 45 gates, UAX and B6 can definitely expand their service. Once the new terminal 2 is built, which is supposed to have about 40 gates, F9 can expand their service, and definitely UA can expand their service from the new terminal 2.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1152
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:24 am

tphuang wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

ULCCs have not had slots so far to get into JFK. That's why NK filed a complaint to DOT about AA squatting. Coming out of this, there is a good chance slot will be lifted at JFK and maybe more slots will become available at LGA for economical reasons.

EWR maybe UA's crown jewel, but in the short term, there will be a lot of reduction there. UA has made it clear that middle of the country hubs will get less cut than the coastal ones due to the belief that international will come back slower than domestic.

Why do you think NK/F9 will continue to expand at EWR? Do you think this virus changes nothing in demand? If UA can chase WN out of EWR, there is no reason in time of weaker demand, NK/F9 won't be forced to scale back their original schedules. Everyone will emerge smaller out of this.

And all of this assumes NK/F9 both survive this as independent airlines, which looks highly unlikely at the moment.

As for B6, they will cut back at EWR coming out of this, because they are at best going to be stagnant in size coming out of this. Long term, they will grow at EWR, but that's 2 or 3 years away.


In my opinion, B6 and UA will be the main tenants of the new terminal 1. In that way, when the corona virus has settled, and when the new terminal is built completely in 2022, then that's when both airlines could expand.


I have a couple of theories here. I think long term, B6 is either going to cooperate more deeply with AA or UA. If it's the later, I don't see B6 expanding much at EWR. If it's the former, then I think they will first build up their JFK a little more with leased slots from AA, but will then move to EWR after that. At this point, I see B6 as the only airline outside of UA that can have a decent size operation at EWR. I don't know how many gates they will have or if they will get additional flight "time slots" when they are ready to expand again. But could I see a flight 40 to 50 flight operation for them by 2023? sure.


Well their peak operation this year was supposed to be around 36 flights so 40 shouldn’t be anywhere out of the question. But something interesting to note is that AA has taken over as the #2 carrier at EWR.
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:30 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:

In my opinion, B6 and UA will be the main tenants of the new terminal 1. In that way, when the corona virus has settled, and when the new terminal is built completely in 2022, then that's when both airlines could expand.


I have a couple of theories here. I think long term, B6 is either going to cooperate more deeply with AA or UA. If it's the later, I don't see B6 expanding much at EWR. If it's the former, then I think they will first build up their JFK a little more with leased slots from AA, but will then move to EWR after that. At this point, I see B6 as the only airline outside of UA that can have a decent size operation at EWR. I don't know how many gates they will have or if they will get additional flight "time slots" when they are ready to expand again. But could I see a flight 40 to 50 flight operation for them by 2023? sure.


Well their peak operation this year was supposed to be around 36 flights so 40 shouldn’t be anywhere out of the question. But something interesting to note is that AA has taken over as the #2 carrier at EWR.


That is interesting, I think eventually B6 in the future will either be number 2 or 3 in the future between F9, which is the new focus airline for EWR. I expect it will change. Another question I have though, is how many passengers in the future will UA, B6 and F9 carry?
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1152
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:42 am

ddaly241 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I have a couple of theories here. I think long term, B6 is either going to cooperate more deeply with AA or UA. If it's the later, I don't see B6 expanding much at EWR. If it's the former, then I think they will first build up their JFK a little more with leased slots from AA, but will then move to EWR after that. At this point, I see B6 as the only airline outside of UA that can have a decent size operation at EWR. I don't know how many gates they will have or if they will get additional flight "time slots" when they are ready to expand again. But could I see a flight 40 to 50 flight operation for them by 2023? sure.


Well their peak operation this year was supposed to be around 36 flights so 40 shouldn’t be anywhere out of the question. But something interesting to note is that AA has taken over as the #2 carrier at EWR.


That is interesting, I think eventually B6 in the future will either be number 2 or 3 in the future between F9, which is the new focus airline for EWR. I expect it will change. Another question I have though, is how many passengers in the future will UA, B6 and F9 carry?


Once travel recovers (late 2021- early 2022) I expect the numbers to be somewhat like this;

UA - 30-32,000,000 currently at 30,000,000
AA- 2.4-2,600,000
B6- 2-2,700,000
DL- 1.9-2,300,000
F9- 1.8-2,500,000
NK- 1.5-2,400,000
 
N649DL
Posts: 966
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:56 am

codc10 wrote:
T5towbar wrote:
Oh, and that fiasco with Gate 40-41 was IIRC, had something to do with the leaving of JFK, and DL received the slots which let UA use those two gates. Someone with more knowledge of the deal, help me out. It lasted for 1 summer, and DL took back the gates.


40/41 are PANYNJ common use gates. NW historically had them on a preferential basis, which Delta “inherited”. After a while, Delta usage fell below thresholds to keep preferential status and United lobbied to use them, mostly as a way to gate-squat and keep NK out. NK received gates anyway, and the UA ceded its access once gate reshuffling began to accommodate T1 construction.

It ended up an operational headache for UA.
EWR pax were confused by which terminal to use for landside services, connecting pax didn’t know how to get to their gates, and UA didn’t want to permanently staff ticket counters and bag service for a handful of daily flights. Even when the gates were used for high O&D flights (Florida) with predominantly local pax, aircraft turns were extended, and the location of the gates, tucked into a tow-in position in an alley, was troublesome.

Overall, a complicated setup that proved too difficult to manage without any real operational benefit, and Spirit got in anyway.


IIRC, that JFK VS. EWR Delta and UAL slop swap got blocked by the Department of Transportation as some sort of a 1:1 monopoly scenario at each airport. This happened right after Smisek got caught in the "Chairman's Flight" scandal at EWR and got forced out of United as well. So that gate 40-41 temporary swap was IIRC handled offline between UA and DL.

IMHO, that was a dumb situation for UAL to even begin with in chopping off a single gate at Terminal B from DL. A total waste of resources and an ridiculous for connecting passengers. IIRC, Gate 40 has been notoriously unreliable and has even been shut down by DL from time to time. It broke while pulling up to the gate on a DL 717 from ATL where we got stuck there for over 30 minutes. It might be that gate 41 is only operational right now and not 40 for Spirit.

Once DL and NW combined, they "gate squatted" for a few years in B-1 and realized that they had space to give up. At this point *Maybe* (assuming we get back to normal PAX loads) it probably makes sense for DL to resume the entire B-1 concourse with the new EWR-BOS flights. But regardless, that entire concourse at EWR is dominated by DL minus a gate or two.
Last edited by N649DL on Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
len90
Posts: 1150
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2006 1:03 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:57 am

Just read through this thread and a lot of weird speculation and planning that is far from factual.

Moving rental car lots to the to the closed Computer store and Toys R Us. The computer store is now a Raymour and Flanagin outlet store. The Toys R Us has been converted into a Floor and Decor. Construction was progressing nicely on that but has been halted due to the coronavirus.

As of a few days ago there was still work being done on Terminal 1.

Newark does not really have much space to grow. East of the airfield is the NJ Turnpike which you can't interrupt as that is a traffic nightmare. North of the airfield is interchange 14 where I-78, US 1/9 meet the turnpike. South of the airfield is Interchange 13A with US 1/9 and airport access. West of the airfield is US 1/9. You have some of the lots that you can push the terminal buildings further west a bit to free up taxiway and ramp space. That's about it.

As for how this all plays out with the ULCCs. B6 was doing well with Latin America routes and Florida flying out of EWR. I foresee that demand resuming. NK and F9 had made a lot of dramatic growth and were being pretty bullish with their moves at EWR. I think we see both of those come back with a little smaller set up at first and ramp up operations as demand returns.

UA will have it hard with the with the transatlantic flying.

When all is said and done and we have both the vaccine and antibody testing available. Antibody testing is coming out now will allow us to see how many asymptomatic carriers we really have and when we are reaching that possible herd immunity scale. Vaccine will also help in reducing the fear of this. Within a year we will see people return to the skies knowing that they are "safe"
Last edited by len90 on Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
Len90
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:58 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

Well their peak operation this year was supposed to be around 36 flights so 40 shouldn’t be anywhere out of the question. But something interesting to note is that AA has taken over as the #2 carrier at EWR.


That is interesting, I think eventually B6 in the future will either be number 2 or 3 in the future between F9, which is the new focus airline for EWR. I expect it will change. Another question I have though, is how many passengers in the future will UA, B6 and F9 carry?


Once travel recovers (late 2021- early 2022) I expect the numbers to be somewhat like this;

UA - 30-32,000,000 currently at 30,000,000
AA- 2.4-2,600,000
B6- 2-2,700,000
DL- 1.9-2,300,000
F9- 1.8-2,500,000
NK- 1.5-2,400,000


That seems reasonable. I know UA can double up their pax by like 2040. I don't know what you guys think, but it should be reasonable in the future for UA to have 60,000,000 or something like that by 2040.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1152
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:03 am

ddaly241 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:

That is interesting, I think eventually B6 in the future will either be number 2 or 3 in the future between F9, which is the new focus airline for EWR. I expect it will change. Another question I have though, is how many passengers in the future will UA, B6 and F9 carry?


Once travel recovers (late 2021- early 2022) I expect the numbers to be somewhat like this;

UA - 30-32,000,000 currently at 30,000,000
AA- 2.4-2,600,000
B6- 2-2,700,000
DL- 1.9-2,300,000
F9- 1.8-2,500,000
NK- 1.5-2,400,000


That seems reasonable. I know UA can double up their pax by like 2040. I don't know what you guys think, but it should be reasonable in the future for UA to have 60,000,000 or something like that by 2040.


It’s certainly doable but I think a lot of the infrastructure projects would need to be completed.
 
N649DL
Posts: 966
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:04 am

ddaly241 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:

That is interesting, I think eventually B6 in the future will either be number 2 or 3 in the future between F9, which is the new focus airline for EWR. I expect it will change. Another question I have though, is how many passengers in the future will UA, B6 and F9 carry?


Once travel recovers (late 2021- early 2022) I expect the numbers to be somewhat like this;

UA - 30-32,000,000 currently at 30,000,000
AA- 2.4-2,600,000
B6- 2-2,700,000
DL- 1.9-2,300,000
F9- 1.8-2,500,000
NK- 1.5-2,400,000


That seems reasonable. I know UA can double up their pax by like 2040. I don't know what you guys think, but it should be reasonable in the future for UA to have 60,000,000 or something like that by 2040.


Whoa? Seriously AA is now #2 at EWR over DL and B6? I don't think they've even been in that position before at EWR, except perhaps a few years in the early 1990s.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1152
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:08 am

N649DL wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

Once travel recovers (late 2021- early 2022) I expect the numbers to be somewhat like this;

UA - 30-32,000,000 currently at 30,000,000
AA- 2.4-2,600,000
B6- 2-2,700,000
DL- 1.9-2,300,000
F9- 1.8-2,500,000
NK- 1.5-2,400,000


That seems reasonable. I know UA can double up their pax by like 2040. I don't know what you guys think, but it should be reasonable in the future for UA to have 60,000,000 or something like that by 2040.


Whoa? Seriously AA is now #2 at EWR over DL and B6? I don't think they've even been in that position before at EWR, except perhaps a few years in the early 1990s.


DL really got hurt when they dropped AMS and CDG.
 
N649DL
Posts: 966
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:42 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
N649DL wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:

That seems reasonable. I know UA can double up their pax by like 2040. I don't know what you guys think, but it should be reasonable in the future for UA to have 60,000,000 or something like that by 2040.


Whoa? Seriously AA is now #2 at EWR over DL and B6? I don't think they've even been in that position before at EWR, except perhaps a few years in the early 1990s.


DL really got hurt when they dropped AMS and CDG.


Yeah, I wasn't happy about that. They seemed to shift the aircraft to IND-CDG (good luck for DL on that one) after EWR-AMS was a long-lived NW route. LHR was also briefly served out of EWR by DL in like 2015. They even had their own check-in area at EWR for Int'l departures.

That said, it seems like DL has done a good job shifting capacity at EWR as a result by starting service to RDU and BOS and expanding frequency to DTW and MSP. So they're into playing at EWR, despite their massive presence at LGA and JFK.
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:04 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

Once travel recovers (late 2021- early 2022) I expect the numbers to be somewhat like this;

UA - 30-32,000,000 currently at 30,000,000
AA- 2.4-2,600,000
B6- 2-2,700,000
DL- 1.9-2,300,000
F9- 1.8-2,500,000
NK- 1.5-2,400,000


That seems reasonable. I know UA can double up their pax by like 2040. I don't know what you guys think, but it should be reasonable in the future for UA to have 60,000,000 or something like that by 2040.


It’s certainly doable but I think a lot of the infrastructure projects would need to be completed.



So what I was thinking was this , terminal 1 would have 45 gates. Terminal 2 to replace terminal B would have about 40 gates. Then terminal 3 to replace terminal C, would have 3 midfield concourses just like a DEN layout with a total between 80-100 gates. The first concourse could have 25-30 gates, the second concourse could have 30-40 gates, and the third concourse could have 25-30 gates. What do you guys think?
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:10 am

ddaly241 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:

That seems reasonable. I know UA can double up their pax by like 2040. I don't know what you guys think, but it should be reasonable in the future for UA to have 60,000,000 or something like that by 2040.


It’s certainly doable but I think a lot of the infrastructure projects would need to be completed.



So what I was thinking was this , terminal 1 would have 45 gates. Terminal 2 to replace terminal B would have about 40 gates. Then terminal 3 to replace terminal C, would have 3 midfield concourses just like a DEN layout with a total between 80-100 gates. The first concourse could have 25-30 gates, the second concourse could have 30-40 gates, and the third concourse could have 25-30 gates. What do you guys think?


I also was thinking as well, terminal 3 would have to overlap with runway 11/29. But what they can do though is that they can make a tunnel for routes 1/9 for an additional 2 runways. I don't think it's possible, but like I said, whatever your opinions are, I'll definitely support.
 
codc10
Posts: 2869
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:05 am

N649DL wrote:
codc10 wrote:
T5towbar wrote:
Oh, and that fiasco with Gate 40-41 was IIRC, had something to do with the leaving of JFK, and DL received the slots which let UA use those two gates. Someone with more knowledge of the deal, help me out. It lasted for 1 summer, and DL took back the gates.


40/41 are PANYNJ common use gates. NW historically had them on a preferential basis, which Delta “inherited”. After a while, Delta usage fell below thresholds to keep preferential status and United lobbied to use them, mostly as a way to gate-squat and keep NK out. NK received gates anyway, and the UA ceded its access once gate reshuffling began to accommodate T1 construction.

It ended up an operational headache for UA.
EWR pax were confused by which terminal to use for landside services, connecting pax didn’t know how to get to their gates, and UA didn’t want to permanently staff ticket counters and bag service for a handful of daily flights. Even when the gates were used for high O&D flights (Florida) with predominantly local pax, aircraft turns were extended, and the location of the gates, tucked into a tow-in position in an alley, was troublesome.

Overall, a complicated setup that proved too difficult to manage without any real operational benefit, and Spirit got in anyway.


IIRC, that JFK VS. EWR Delta and UAL slop swap got blocked by the Department of Transportation as some sort of a 1:1 monopoly scenario at each airport. This happened right after Smisek got caught in the "Chairman's Flight" scandal at EWR and got forced out of United as well. So that gate 40-41 temporary swap was IIRC handled offline between UA and DL.

IMHO, that was a dumb situation for UAL to even begin with in chopping off a single gate at Terminal B from DL. A total waste of resources and an ridiculous for connecting passengers. IIRC, Gate 40 has been notoriously unreliable and has even been shut down by DL from time to time. It broke while pulling up to the gate on a DL 717 from ATL where we got stuck there for over 30 minutes. It might be that gate 41 is only operational right now and not 40 for Spirit.

Once DL and NW combined, they "gate squatted" for a few years in B-1 and realized that they had space to give up. At this point *Maybe* (assuming we get back to normal PAX loads) it probably makes sense for DL to resume the entire B-1 concourse with the new EWR-BOS flights. But regardless, that entire concourse at EWR is dominated by DL minus a gate or two.


It makes for a fun fairy tale, but use of gates 40/41A/41B wasn’t “handled offline” between UA and DL. Delta relinquished access and UA/NK pushed the PA for them. Now that gates are closing for T1 construction, there has been further reshuffling, including UA stopping the B-1 operation.

Once DL ended its TATL flying from EWR and stopped handling Alaska, it just hasn’t needed all the B-1 gates.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4982
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:35 am

ddaly241 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:
If United invest into the new terminal C, EWR may be the biggest United hub if they expand and get more additional gates into a new facility in the new terminal C.


By flight count last summer, EWR was a long, long way behind ORD - and IAH and DEN. viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1420611


Right now, EWR is a long way behind those airports, but probably in the future probably before 2030, they might be the biggest United hub if they invest in a new terminal C and that new terminal would definitely have additional gates since United is very corrupt in the current terminal C that they use.

I would think this is why United still has the IAD hub. They cannot for sure move back into JFK unless some incumbent carrier there goes Belly up.
 
N649DL
Posts: 966
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:49 am

codc10 wrote:
N649DL wrote:
codc10 wrote:

40/41 are PANYNJ common use gates. NW historically had them on a preferential basis, which Delta “inherited”. After a while, Delta usage fell below thresholds to keep preferential status and United lobbied to use them, mostly as a way to gate-squat and keep NK out. NK received gates anyway, and the UA ceded its access once gate reshuffling began to accommodate T1 construction.

It ended up an operational headache for UA.
EWR pax were confused by which terminal to use for landside services, connecting pax didn’t know how to get to their gates, and UA didn’t want to permanently staff ticket counters and bag service for a handful of daily flights. Even when the gates were used for high O&D flights (Florida) with predominantly local pax, aircraft turns were extended, and the location of the gates, tucked into a tow-in position in an alley, was troublesome.

Overall, a complicated setup that proved too difficult to manage without any real operational benefit, and Spirit got in anyway.


IIRC, that JFK VS. EWR Delta and UAL slop swap got blocked by the Department of Transportation as some sort of a 1:1 monopoly scenario at each airport. This happened right after Smisek got caught in the "Chairman's Flight" scandal at EWR and got forced out of United as well. So that gate 40-41 temporary swap was IIRC handled offline between UA and DL.

IMHO, that was a dumb situation for UAL to even begin with in chopping off a single gate at Terminal B from DL. A total waste of resources and an ridiculous for connecting passengers. IIRC, Gate 40 has been notoriously unreliable and has even been shut down by DL from time to time. It broke while pulling up to the gate on a DL 717 from ATL where we got stuck there for over 30 minutes. It might be that gate 41 is only operational right now and not 40 for Spirit.

Once DL and NW combined, they "gate squatted" for a few years in B-1 and realized that they had space to give up. At this point *Maybe* (assuming we get back to normal PAX loads) it probably makes sense for DL to resume the entire B-1 concourse with the new EWR-BOS flights. But regardless, that entire concourse at EWR is dominated by DL minus a gate or two.


It makes for a fun fairy tale, but use of gates 40/41A/41B wasn’t “handled offline” between UA and DL. Delta relinquished access and UA/NK pushed the PA for them. Now that gates are closing for T1 construction, there has been further reshuffling, including UA stopping the B-1 operation.

Once DL ended its TATL flying from EWR and stopped handling Alaska, it just hasn’t needed all the B-1 gates.


Was it? Then what happened exactly to Smisek?

OHHHH!: https://money.cnn.com/2016/04/06/news/c ... index.html

FAKE NEWS CODC10!
 
codc10
Posts: 2869
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:33 am

N649DL wrote:
codc10 wrote:
N649DL wrote:

IIRC, that JFK VS. EWR Delta and UAL slop swap got blocked by the Department of Transportation as some sort of a 1:1 monopoly scenario at each airport. This happened right after Smisek got caught in the "Chairman's Flight" scandal at EWR and got forced out of United as well. So that gate 40-41 temporary swap was IIRC handled offline between UA and DL.

IMHO, that was a dumb situation for UAL to even begin with in chopping off a single gate at Terminal B from DL. A total waste of resources and an ridiculous for connecting passengers. IIRC, Gate 40 has been notoriously unreliable and has even been shut down by DL from time to time. It broke while pulling up to the gate on a DL 717 from ATL where we got stuck there for over 30 minutes. It might be that gate 41 is only operational right now and not 40 for Spirit.

Once DL and NW combined, they "gate squatted" for a few years in B-1 and realized that they had space to give up. At this point *Maybe* (assuming we get back to normal PAX loads) it probably makes sense for DL to resume the entire B-1 concourse with the new EWR-BOS flights. But regardless, that entire concourse at EWR is dominated by DL minus a gate or two.


It makes for a fun fairy tale, but use of gates 40/41A/41B wasn’t “handled offline” between UA and DL. Delta relinquished access and UA/NK pushed the PA for them. Now that gates are closing for T1 construction, there has been further reshuffling, including UA stopping the B-1 operation.

Once DL ended its TATL flying from EWR and stopped handling Alaska, it just hasn’t needed all the B-1 gates.


Was it? Then what happened exactly to Smisek?

OHHHH!: https://money.cnn.com/2016/04/06/news/c ... index.html

FAKE NEWS CODC10!


Slots =/= gates.

Don’t peddle nonsense. Did you even read the linked article, Tommy?
 
blacksoviet
Posts: 1676
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Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:55 am

Why did Continental take 20 years to build Terminal C?
 
User avatar
Polot
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Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:58 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
Why did Continental take 20 years to build Terminal C?

They didn’t.

Terminal C was started in the 1970s with the other terminals (with a planned similar design) but at the time EWR didn’t need the capacity so construction stopped. As PEOPLExpress grew in the 80s work started on C again and it was completed in 1988, a year after CO bought People. PEOPLExpress was planning on fully moving out of the North terminal and using the new C.
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:43 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

By flight count last summer, EWR was a long, long way behind ORD - and IAH and DEN. viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1420611


Right now, EWR is a long way behind those airports, but probably in the future probably before 2030, they might be the biggest United hub if they invest in a new terminal C and that new terminal would definitely have additional gates since United is very corrupt in the current terminal C that they use.

I would think this is why United still has the IAD hub. They cannot for sure move back into JFK unless some incumbent carrier there goes Belly up.


IAD has the United hub for connecting flights instead of O and D flights, for EWR United operate mostly O and D flights, but I could definitely see EWR having more Express flights for connecting flights to atlantic routes. Ex. ROA-EWR then EWR-DUB.
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
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Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:06 pm

Hi everyone, I have a quick question, what future international airlines could come to ewr?
 
T5towbar
Posts: 489
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2009 2:06 am

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:11 pm

ddaly241 wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I have a couple of theories here. I think long term, B6 is either going to cooperate more deeply with AA or UA. If it's the later, I don't see B6 expanding much at EWR. If it's the former, then I think they will first build up their JFK a little more with leased slots from AA, but will then move to EWR after that. At this point, I see B6 as the only airline outside of UA that can have a decent size operation at EWR. I don't know how many gates they will have or if they will get additional flight "time slots" when they are ready to expand again. But could I see a flight 40 to 50 flight operation for them by 2023? sure.


I do agree with B6 expanding some of their service in EWR. What about UA and F9, will they expand?


Here's another theory of mine, once the new terminal one is built and hopefully expanded to 45 gates, UAX and B6 can definitely expand their service. Once the new terminal 2 is built, which is supposed to have about 40 gates, F9 can expand their service, and definitely UA can expand their service from the new terminal 2.


B6 wants to expand more probably does F9, but the only thing that will slow them down won't be gate space...... it will be slots. Congestion problems during prime hours was the problem. On clear days ATC was called because of it. Before the crisis, no carrier was given WN's slots after they left, because it was to ease congestion. Once things get back to a normal pace, those problems will remain, and that's the problem with EWR and why it is slot restricted.

F9 is supposed to be in the new Terminal One as well. Along with Spirit.


Who has the bigger operation between B6 and AA? AA flies to their hubs and have more gates at present than B6. And who is the second biggest tenant at EWR between AA; DL; or B6?
A comment from an Ex CON: Work Hard.....Fly Standby!
 
T5towbar
Posts: 489
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2009 2:06 am

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:33 pm

ddaly241 wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:

Right now, EWR is a long way behind those airports, but probably in the future probably before 2030, they might be the biggest United hub if they invest in a new terminal C and that new terminal would definitely have additional gates since United is very corrupt in the current terminal C that they use.

I would think this is why United still has the IAD hub. They cannot for sure move back into JFK unless some incumbent carrier there goes Belly up.


IAD has the United hub for connecting flights instead of O and D flights, for EWR United operate mostly O and D flights, but I could definitely see EWR having more Express flights for connecting flights to Atlantic routes. Ex. ROA-EWR then EWR-DUB.




EWR is and always be an O&D hub. That is it's role in the UA network. There will be enough feed for the International (Europe and Asia) flights locally and regionally thru express. IAD would be better suited for connections alongside of their International stuff. Especially in bad weather, IAD can do a whole lot to relieve EWR. If we all heard what Kirby said and take to heart, there will be less 50 seaters in the system, but probably will be larger gauge express flights and select E145 flights going to certain destinations, depending on a new mainline pilots contract and how much scope the will give up for more 76 seaters. (That in itself is a big challenge for mainline to give up scope - they've been screwed before) IMHO, I think that XJT and C5 might merge in some form to handle any E145 flying in the Northeast (EWR & IAD).

EWR is an important hub, but it will never be the biggest in flights. Give that honor to ORD (and possibly DEN).
A comment from an Ex CON: Work Hard.....Fly Standby!
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:33 pm

T5towbar wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:

I do agree with B6 expanding some of their service in EWR. What about UA and F9, will they expand?


Here's another theory of mine, once the new terminal one is built and hopefully expanded to 45 gates, UAX and B6 can definitely expand their service. Once the new terminal 2 is built, which is supposed to have about 40 gates, F9 can expand their service, and definitely UA can expand their service from the new terminal 2.


B6 wants to expand more probably does F9, but the only thing that will slow them down won't be gate space...... it will be slots. Congestion problems during prime hours was the problem. On clear days ATC was called because of it. Before the crisis, no carrier was given WN's slots after they left, because it was to ease congestion. Once things get back to a normal pace, those problems will remain, and that's the problem with EWR and why it is slot restricted.

F9 is supposed to be in the new Terminal One as well. Along with Spirit.


Who has the bigger operation between B6 and AA? AA flies to their hubs and have more gates at present than B6. And who is the second biggest tenant at EWR between AA; DL; or B6?


Once the new terminal 1 is built, hopefully it won't be slot restricted anymore. I do believe that B6 will get more gates than AA in the future terminal 1. So in my opinion, B6 would be the second largest tenant.
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:37 pm

T5towbar wrote:
ddaly241 wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
I would think this is why United still has the IAD hub. They cannot for sure move back into JFK unless some incumbent carrier there goes Belly up.


IAD has the United hub for connecting flights instead of O and D flights, for EWR United operate mostly O and D flights, but I could definitely see EWR having more Express flights for connecting flights to Atlantic routes. Ex. ROA-EWR then EWR-DUB.




EWR is and always be an O&D hub. That is it's role in the UA network. There will be enough feed for the International (Europe and Asia) flights locally and regionally thru express. IAD would be better suited for connections alongside of their International stuff. Especially in bad weather, IAD can do a whole lot to relieve EWR. If we all heard what Kirby said and take to heart, there will be less 50 seaters in the system, but probably will be larger gauge express flights and select E145 flights going to certain destinations, depending on a new mainline pilots contract and how much scope the will give up for more 76 seaters. (That in itself is a big challenge for mainline to give up scope - they've been screwed before) IMHO, I think that XJT and C5 might merge in some form to handle any E145 flying in the Northeast (EWR & IAD).

EWR is an important hub, but it will never be the biggest in flights. Give that honor to ORD (and possibly DEN).


But what about the future, when United will open up a new terminal 3 and open up a new terminal 2. United will be able to expand their flights with these new infrastructure projects. We'll see what happens next, I guess.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5201
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:43 pm

EWR will never have the most number of flights simply because NY airspace is crowded and FAA will put slots in place if things get too delayed.
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:10 pm

tphuang wrote:
EWR will never have the most number of flights simply because NY airspace is crowded and FAA will put slots in place if things get too delayed.


If UA or any other airline wanted to expand out of EWR, how will they solve that problem with slot restrictions with NY airspace?
 
ddaly241
Topic Author
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:43 pm

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:23 pm

ddaly241 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
EWR will never have the most number of flights simply because NY airspace is crowded and FAA will put slots in place if things get too delayed.


If UA or any other airline wanted to expand out of EWR, how will they solve that problem with slot restrictions with NY airspace?


I'm guessing they should reduce taxi times and put slots outside between 4-8pm.
 
leader1
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:44 am

Re: Newark Airport Future

Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:36 pm

A few things I should clear up because there is a lot of erroneous information on this thread. Lots of posts seem to be in dreamland here with no basis in reality.

First of all, EWR is not slot-controlled anymore. It used to be, but the FAA relaxed them because the delay situation improved enough and they were getting concerned that UA had a monopoly and new carriers were more or less blocked from entering. EWR is still monitored as it is a Level 2 Slot Coordinated airport, which means the FAA has to review and approve all schedules. So, while not officially slot-controlled, it is still regulated and they’re not going to allow things to go out of control like they were before. Last I heard, they wanted to keep flights per hour in the 74-76 range.

Also, EWR is not getting a new runway. Period. Let’s put this to bed right now. When I worked at PANYNJ (specifically on EWR capital projects), there were no plans to add a new runway then and I haven’t heard of any plans to add one since I left. The RPA proposal is just urbanist fantasy that will most likely never see fruition. Granted, RPA does get some funding from PANYNJ, but much of what they propose has no basis in reality. Other than the new terminal, some facility improvements, taxiway and runway repairs and the new end-arounds, there won’t be much else done to improve airside capacity. The end-arounds will improve ground movement so arriving planes won’t have to cross the departure runway, but it won’t do anything to increase the airport’s capacity. Which leads me to...

And even if EWR does get a new runway, it won’t be all that useful because of the surrounding airspace. NYC airspace is complex in that you have several major airports that are within 20 miles or less of each other. With regards to EWR, you have TEB up north and LGA’s airspace which starts along the Hudson River to the east. This severely impacts what ATC can do with regards to moving the planes in and out of the airport. For instance, because LGA’s airspace is so close to the east, you can’t have parallel arrivals because there’s just one approach path that leads to the airport. EWR does have procedures that allow staggered approaches on the 4s, but they’re rarely used because it would interfere too much with departing traffic and arrival and departing traffic are generally evenly balanced throughout the day. That’s just one example of the ATC limitations at EWR - there are many others.

And EWR’s airfield layout is terrible and can’t realistically accommodate that many more flights. The main parallels are too close together and then you have the airspace issues that I highlighted above. The traffic level before this pandemic is probably what you will see in the future, if it ever returns. Even if you add more gates, not much else can be done with the current layout that will lead to an increase in flights. Even in good weather conditions, the airport often runs on a Ground Delay Program (GDP), which is almost everyday!
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