Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 19723
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Covid19 impact on Aircraft deliveries

Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:13 pm

As someone who works Aerospace R&D, we often ignore what is happening now and focus on what customers need. Unfortunately, it looks like a 4 year 25% drop in new aircraft demand.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... alysts-say

Among the outputs: airlines would need 6,300 new aircraft over the next five years, down from its previous forecast of 8,300.

I personally disagree with their assumption as I think long haul will be harder hit. However, I think the magnitude is about right.

The article motes:
Figures compiled by both Aviation Week and Oliver Wyman suggested that retirements were edging up even before the pandemic struck in early 2020. Preliminary figures in the Aviation Week Fleet Data Services database show that 2019 ended a five-year stretch during which total removals averaged 567 per year. The next five years will see annual figures average 1,122—a figure that will surely rise as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic’s drag on air travel demand.
I personally wouldn't be surprised if 3,000 aircraft are retired in 2020. :cry2:

Boeing CMO:
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/market ... t-outlook/

There are currently 25,830 aircraft at the start of 2019 CMO, so I am predicting a ~12% retirement. Obviously, there will be a regional variation and older aircraft will be retired first.

Obviously many parked aircraft will be converted to freighters. For those willing to buy less popular aircraft, discounts will be amazing.

For delayed programs, such as the MRJ Spacejet and C919, this gives them the needed time to fix problems found during flight testing.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
TropicalSky
Posts: 450
Joined: Fri May 05, 2017 1:37 pm

Re: Covid19 impact on Aircraft deliveries

Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:46 pm

Looking at those graphs shows interesting travel dynamics in the different markets in terms of pax
 
Scotron12
Posts: 485
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

Re: Covid19 impact on Aircraft deliveries

Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:58 pm

TropicalSky wrote:
Looking at those graphs shows interesting travel dynamics in the different markets in terms of pax


Calhoun makes an interesting comment in this ST article

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -employees

He says the size and types of products and services in the commercial market are likely to be different.

Is he talking new model aircraft?

Many carriers are going to be a lot smaller than what they are now. Many will probably collapse. Heck...how many 737MAX will this new reality support with over 400 sitting around??
 
Elementalism
Posts: 602
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:03 am

Re: Covid19 impact on Aircraft deliveries

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:01 pm

We just dont know. But I suspect this will be a tough few years for the manufacturers. Airlines are going to collapse and flood the market with available aircraft. The ones that survive will have a stockpile of them in the desert waiting to be brought back into service. And customer demand wont return overnight. An airline like Delta with 600 aircraft parked will take a year or longer to ramp back up imo. And yes they will retire some early. But they will still have a stockpile of aircraft to pull from. Are they going to take new aircraft for the sake of delivery?
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 19723
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Covid19 impact on Aircraft deliveries

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:26 pm

Elementalism wrote:
We just dont know. But I suspect this will be a tough few years for the manufacturers. Airlines are going to collapse and flood the market with available aircraft. The ones that survive will have a stockpile of them in the desert waiting to be brought back into service. And customer demand wont return overnight. An airline like Delta with 600 aircraft parked will take a year or longer to ramp back up imo. And yes they will retire some early. But they will still have a stockpile of aircraft to pull from. Are they going to take new aircraft for the sake of delivery?


Unfortunately, this is the most likely answer. Boeing and Airbus will work to keep some deliveries going (you cannot take a factory to zero and restart economically).

Oil 'spiked' up to $25/bbl. :yawn: As long as oil is below $30/bbl the incentive to buy new is low. Airlines like Allegiant, whom I think will survive, will have plenty of aircraft to choose among.

Delta will buy new if the deal is right.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 7754
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Covid19 impact on Aircraft deliveries

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:52 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Among the outputs: airlines would need 6,300 new aircraft over the next five years, down from its previous forecast of 8,300.


So, the consultants say carriers will need 6,300 aircraft in the next five years. Are they asserting that same carriers will be able to afford 6,300 aircraft in the next five years?
 
User avatar
MoKa777
Posts: 1067
Joined: Fri Oct 21, 2016 11:47 am

Re: Covid19 impact on Aircraft deliveries

Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:43 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Among the outputs: airlines would need 6,300 new aircraft over the next five years, down from its previous forecast of 8,300.


So, the consultants say carriers will need 6,300 aircraft in the next five years. Are they asserting that same carriers will be able to afford 6,300 aircraft in the next five years?


Good point.
Never be proud. Always be grateful.
 
User avatar
Antaras
Posts: 691
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Covid19 impact on Aircraft deliveries

Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:24 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Among the outputs: airlines would need 6,300 new aircraft over the next five years, down from its previous forecast of 8,300.


So, the consultants say carriers will need 6,300 aircraft in the next five years. Are they asserting that same carriers will be able to afford 6,300 aircraft in the next five years?

That is when A and B should suggest attractive discounts for customers.
I guess that the aircraft's price will be slightly dropped after this pandemic, because of A&B strategy as well as a large number of airframes which are sold are returned to the lessors.
This will be a rare chance for newbies to get new airframes as the market will be recovered (if they are still alive at that moment).
Edit signature
This is a block of text that can be added to posts you make. There is a 255 character limit.
 
User avatar
hOMSaR
Moderator
Posts: 2337
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 4:47 am

Re: Covid19 impact on Aircraft deliveries

Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Obviously many parked aircraft will be converted to freighters.



Random thought here, but does this possibly change the economics of designing new freighter conversions?

For example, with a thousand or so (don't know the actual number) 737 MAX jets grounded, and a -800 freighter conversion already designed, and many carriers not in a position to take on a new jet even when it's recertified, could someone decide that a hundred "relatively" cheap NTU MAXes at firesale prices is worthwhile to make into a freighter that might last a cargo carrier 30 years, rather than spending money to convert 15 to 20 year old jets that might only give them another 10 years of life?
I was raised by a cup of coffee.
 
User avatar
ADent
Posts: 1102
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 12:11 pm

Re: Covid19 impact on Aircraft deliveries

Thu May 28, 2020 7:41 pm

Antaras wrote:
I guess that the aircraft's price will be slightly dropped after this pandemic, because of A&B strategy as well as a large number of airframes which are sold are returned to the lessors.
This will be a rare chance for newbies to get new airframes as the market will be recovered (if they are still alive at that moment).

The other theory is that with production cuts, overhead is spread across fewer air frames-thus prices should increase.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos