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NWAESC
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:26 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
https://www.alpa.org/advocacy/cta/covid-19-economic-relief

Grant recipients are prohibited from conducting involuntary furloughs or reducing pay rates and benefits until September 30, 2020

Any air carriers that accepts a loan must maintain its employment levels as of March 24, 2020, to the extent practicable and cannot reduce its employment levels by more than 10 percent through September 30, 2020.
Protections to preserve and maintain the integrity of collective bargaining agreements and contract protections:
For grant recipients, these protections from federal government demands for labor concessions lasts until September 30, 2020.
For loans, this protection is in effect until one year after the loan is paid.

Collective Bargaining Provisions
The collective bargaining provisions in this legislation are a significant victory for labor and are in stark contrast to the situation following 9-11 when the government demanded that carriers seek labor concessions as a condition for receiving aid. The provision does not, however, prevent management from approaching unions for concessions or from filing for bankruptcy protection. It only prevents the government from demanding that carriers that receive assistance secure contractual relief from their unions.

Part of this funding will be secured by the issuance of impacted business’ stock to the federal government.

And here is the bill

https://www.alpa.org/-/media/ALPA/Files ... .pdf?la=en


Thank you, but again, companies are still free to cut hours to whatever the minimum may be in a given CBA, all while leaving base bay intact. That meets the covenants of the Act, but is still economic harm to the employee(s).
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
Boof02671
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:28 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Regarding the AA A330 fleet---with this depressed markets, even though the A332s are titled to American and have RR Trent 772B-60, would they make sense for American to keep, or would it be better off parking them and trying to find a buyer or lessee, such as maybe National Airlines, which could use some for military charters? This would simplify the long-haul fleet to all Boeing (plus the upcoming A321XLR) and have a fleet that can rotate to all AA hubs (currently the A330s are based in Philadelphia, while all other types can potentially see DFW).

Also for AA, given that PHL relies more on connections and JFK on O&D, might JFK see more TATL flying? The flip side is that PHL and CLT are fortress hubs.

They are also based in CLT. They are keeping the 332s. The A321XLR are three years out.
 
Boof02671
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:29 pm

NWAESC wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
https://www.alpa.org/advocacy/cta/covid-19-economic-relief

Grant recipients are prohibited from conducting involuntary furloughs or reducing pay rates and benefits until September 30, 2020

Any air carriers that accepts a loan must maintain its employment levels as of March 24, 2020, to the extent practicable and cannot reduce its employment levels by more than 10 percent through September 30, 2020.
Protections to preserve and maintain the integrity of collective bargaining agreements and contract protections:
For grant recipients, these protections from federal government demands for labor concessions lasts until September 30, 2020.
For loans, this protection is in effect until one year after the loan is paid.

Collective Bargaining Provisions
The collective bargaining provisions in this legislation are a significant victory for labor and are in stark contrast to the situation following 9-11 when the government demanded that carriers seek labor concessions as a condition for receiving aid. The provision does not, however, prevent management from approaching unions for concessions or from filing for bankruptcy protection. It only prevents the government from demanding that carriers that receive assistance secure contractual relief from their unions.

Part of this funding will be secured by the issuance of impacted business’ stock to the federal government.

And here is the bill

https://www.alpa.org/-/media/ALPA/Files ... .pdf?la=en


Thank you, but again, companies are still free to cut hours to whatever the minimum may be in a given CBA, all while leaving base bay intact. That meets the covenants of the Act, but is still economic harm to the employee(s).

Full time in the CBA is 40 hours, can’t cut that. For example PT is 15 hours minimum so yes AA is cutting per the CBA not below.
 
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NWAESC
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:37 pm

Not everyone under a CBA works a straight 40 hour week.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:45 pm

tphuang wrote:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/us-airlines-cash-reserves-coronavirus/
yikes, as I posted on coronavirus thread, cash burn forecast from Raymond James
Raymond James’ “Cash Burn Forecast”

SkyWest: 11.8 months of implied cash on hand*
Allegiant: 10.6 months
Southwest: 9.4 months
Spirit: 8.8 months
JetBlue: 8.7 months
Alaska: 6.6 months
Mesa: 6.3 months
Delta: 6.2 months
United: 5.7 months
American: 4.8 months
this is without factoring in CARES. Personally, I think this is probably still a little generous on the airlines.


Terrible reporting, as they don’t take into account when the carriers bills are due or the type of debt. For example, AA has repeatedly pointed out that much of their debt doesn’t come due for 18-24 months.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:57 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
tphuang wrote:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/us-airlines-cash-reserves-coronavirus/
yikes, as I posted on coronavirus thread, cash burn forecast from Raymond James
Raymond James’ “Cash Burn Forecast”

SkyWest: 11.8 months of implied cash on hand*
Allegiant: 10.6 months
Southwest: 9.4 months
Spirit: 8.8 months
JetBlue: 8.7 months
Alaska: 6.6 months
Mesa: 6.3 months
Delta: 6.2 months
United: 5.7 months
American: 4.8 months
this is without factoring in CARES. Personally, I think this is probably still a little generous on the airlines.


Terrible reporting, as they don’t take into account when the carriers bills are due or the type of debt. For example, AA has repeatedly pointed out that much of their debt doesn’t come due for 18-24 months.


Have you looked into their report and saw that they were actually doing this or you are assuming? The number of months they listed seem to be pretty generous given that delta has said they will run out of money in June. And the burn rate for aa is higher than any other airlines.

On the other part about debt maturity, you are making the assumption that aa or other airlines will be cash positive enough to pay off their debts. That is debatable given we could be heading into a 2008 type of world wide recession.
 
Boof02671
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:16 pm

NWAESC wrote:
Not everyone under a CBA works a straight 40 hour week.

All ground employees do and pilots and flight attendants have contractual guarantees. Go ask your pilots.

How’s that $1200 less a month working out for non-union full time Delta ramp? Not happening at AA, WN, or UA.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:32 pm

tphuang wrote:
you are making the assumption that aa or other airlines will be cash positive enough to pay off their debts. That is debatable given we could be heading into a 2008 type of world wide recession.


They're also overlooking unencumbered assets that the carriers can leverage to raise capital through EETCs and so forth. Not every carrier is in the same position.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:56 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
tphuang wrote:
you are making the assumption that aa or other airlines will be cash positive enough to pay off their debts. That is debatable given we could be heading into a 2008 type of world wide recession.


They're also overlooking unencumbered assets that the carriers can leverage to raise capital through EETCs and so forth. Not every carrier is in the same position.


I don't know if they are. If the credit market is basically shut off for airlines. How much capital can these unencumbered assets raise? How much of this unencumbered assets have already been used as collateral for the multiple billion loans that AA or any other airlines have already borrowed? If AA has $10 billion in unencumbered assets, how much has not been used borrowed against and how much are the banks willing to lend on the remaining assets? Do they value these assets in the current market condition the same way that an airline accounting value them?

And given that DL has publicly said they have less than 3 months of cash left at current burn rate and this report believes they have more than 6 months left, is this report not already factoring in capital that can be raised against the unencumbered assets?
 
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NWAESC
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:02 am

Boof02671 wrote:
NWAESC wrote:
Not everyone under a CBA works a straight 40 hour week.

All ground employees do and pilots and flight attendants have contractual guarantees. Go ask your pilots.

How’s that $1200 less a month working out for non-union full time Delta ramp? Not happening at AA, WN, or UA.


You just proved my point; DL base rates haven’t changed one bit, yet people are still feeling the hit.

But hey, if you’re right, and there’s no loophole regarding hours, then we’ll all be made whole soon enough.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
United1
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:07 am

tphuang wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
tphuang wrote:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/us-airlines-cash-reserves-coronavirus/
yikes, as I posted on coronavirus thread, cash burn forecast from Raymond James
Raymond James’ “Cash Burn Forecast”

SkyWest: 11.8 months of implied cash on hand*
Allegiant: 10.6 months
Southwest: 9.4 months
Spirit: 8.8 months
JetBlue: 8.7 months
Alaska: 6.6 months
Mesa: 6.3 months
Delta: 6.2 months
United: 5.7 months
American: 4.8 months
this is without factoring in CARES. Personally, I think this is probably still a little generous on the airlines.


Terrible reporting, as they don’t take into account when the carriers bills are due or the type of debt. For example, AA has repeatedly pointed out that much of their debt doesn’t come due for 18-24 months.


Have you looked into their report and saw that they were actually doing this or you are assuming? The number of months they listed seem to be pretty generous given that delta has said they will run out of money in June. And the burn rate for aa is higher than any other airlines.

On the other part about debt maturity, you are making the assumption that aa or other airlines will be cash positive enough to pay off their debts. That is debatable given we could be heading into a 2008 type of world wide recession.


AA does seem to be in some serious trouble right now (not that any of them are in the free and clear.) Whether or not they have enough cash to pay their debt this year is debatable (AA says they do however the article says they have billions due this year.)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ameri ... yptr=yahoo

JP Morgan did a double downgrade on AA this morning as well as downgrading several other smaller airlines. Baker specifically called out AA as they are the most leveraged of any of the airlines he covers. DL and UA held onto their ratings while AS was actually upgraded.

"Baker also downgraded Spirit Airlines Inc. US:SAVE to underweight from overweight and both JetBlue Airways Corp. US:JBLU and Southwest Airlines Co. US:LUV to neutral from overweight, while upgrading Alaska Air Group Inc. US:ALK to overweight from neutral. He maintained his overweight ratings on United Airlines Holdings Inc. US:UAL and Delta Air Lines Inc. US:DAL

Despite the other airline downgrades, Baker said he was focused on American in his research note to clients “simply because it is the most leveraged major airline” that he covers."
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Boof02671
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:13 am

NWAESC wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
NWAESC wrote:
Not everyone under a CBA works a straight 40 hour week.

All ground employees do and pilots and flight attendants have contractual guarantees. Go ask your pilots.

How’s that $1200 less a month working out for non-union full time Delta ramp? Not happening at AA, WN, or UA.


You just proved my point; DL base rates haven’t changed one bit, yet people are still feeling the hit.

But hey, if you’re right, and there’s no loophole regarding hours, then we’ll all be made whole soon enough.

Only if you have a CBA, something you don’t have.
 
alfa164
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:57 am

NWAESC wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
https://www.alpa.org/advocacy/cta/covid-19-economic-relief
Grant recipients are prohibited from conducting involuntary furloughs or reducing pay rates and benefits until September 30, 2020
Any air carriers that accepts a loan must maintain its employment levels as of March 24, 2020, to the extent practicable and cannot reduce its employment levels by more than 10 percent through September 30, 2020.
Protections to preserve and maintain the integrity of collective bargaining agreements and contract protections:
For grant recipients, these protections from federal government demands for labor concessions lasts until September 30, 2020.
For loans, this protection is in effect until one year after the loan is paid.
Collective Bargaining Provisions
The collective bargaining provisions in this legislation are a significant victory for labor and are in stark contrast to the situation following 9-11 when the government demanded that carriers seek labor concessions as a condition for receiving aid. The provision does not, however, prevent management from approaching unions for concessions or from filing for bankruptcy protection. It only prevents the government from demanding that carriers that receive assistance secure contractual relief from their unions.
Part of this funding will be secured by the issuance of impacted business’ stock to the federal government.
And here is the bill
https://www.alpa.org/-/media/ALPA/Files ... .pdf?la=en


Thank you, but again, companies are still free to cut hours to whatever the minimum may be in a given CBA, all while leaving base bay intact. That meets the covenants of the Act, but is still economic harm to the employee(s).


:checkmark: Plus, that phrase, "Any air carriers that accepts a loan must maintain its employment levels as of March 24, 2020, to the extent practicable and cannot reduce its employment levels by more than 10 percent through September 30, 2020" looks like a loophole big enough to fly a 380 through.
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D L X
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:59 am

As a DC based AA flier, this is stunning. Basically, the DCA hub has drawn down, but as I look out my window and don’t see the typical plane every 60 seconds, it’s obviously not just AA.

I noticed that the DCA-LAS flight is gone. The AA DCA-LAX flight persists for now. What are the legal requirements for the beyond perimeter flights out of DCA? Is LAS gone for good?
 
Boof02671
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:03 am

alfa164 wrote:
NWAESC wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
https://www.alpa.org/advocacy/cta/covid-19-economic-relief
Grant recipients are prohibited from conducting involuntary furloughs or reducing pay rates and benefits until September 30, 2020
Any air carriers that accepts a loan must maintain its employment levels as of March 24, 2020, to the extent practicable and cannot reduce its employment levels by more than 10 percent through September 30, 2020.
Protections to preserve and maintain the integrity of collective bargaining agreements and contract protections:
For grant recipients, these protections from federal government demands for labor concessions lasts until September 30, 2020.
For loans, this protection is in effect until one year after the loan is paid.
Collective Bargaining Provisions
The collective bargaining provisions in this legislation are a significant victory for labor and are in stark contrast to the situation following 9-11 when the government demanded that carriers seek labor concessions as a condition for receiving aid. The provision does not, however, prevent management from approaching unions for concessions or from filing for bankruptcy protection. It only prevents the government from demanding that carriers that receive assistance secure contractual relief from their unions.
Part of this funding will be secured by the issuance of impacted business’ stock to the federal government.
And here is the bill
https://www.alpa.org/-/media/ALPA/Files ... .pdf?la=en


Thank you, but again, companies are still free to cut hours to whatever the minimum may be in a given CBA, all while leaving base bay intact. That meets the covenants of the Act, but is still economic harm to the employee(s).


:checkmark: Plus, that phrase, "Any air carriers that accepts a loan must maintain its employment levels as of March 24, 2020, to the extent practicable and cannot reduce its employment levels by more than 10 percent through September 30, 2020" looks like a loophole big enough to fly a 380 through.

No loophole, they can reduce employees by 10%. It’s quite clear.
 
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chepos
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OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:15 am

D L X wrote:
As a DC based AA flier, this is stunning. Basically, the DCA hub has drawn down, but as I look out my window and don’t see the typical plane every 60 seconds, it’s obviously not just AA.

I noticed that the DCA-LAS flight is gone. The AA DCA-LAX flight persists for now. What are the legal requirements for the beyond perimeter flights out of DCA? Is LAS gone for good?

As of now and obviously depending on the course of the Covid 19 the flight cuts at DCA and most of the network are for the month of April and May. Obviously that is subject to change, based on the Covid 19 and how long it last. As you mentioned this is not just AA, we are focusing this thread on AA, but most airlines have reduced their schedules.


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onwFan
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:21 pm

D L X wrote:
As a DC based AA flier, this is stunning. Basically, the DCA hub has drawn down, but as I look out my window and don’t see the typical plane every 60 seconds, it’s obviously not just AA.

I noticed that the DCA-LAS flight is gone. The AA DCA-LAX flight persists for now. What are the legal requirements for the beyond perimeter flights out of DCA? Is LAS gone for good?

I doubt if any airport is going to enforce route authority requirements for not flying empty planes in the current environment..
 
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:52 pm

alfa164 wrote:
:checkmark: Plus, that phrase, "Any air carriers that accepts a loan must maintain its employment levels as of March 24, 2020, to the extent practicable and cannot reduce its employment levels by more than 10 percent through September 30, 2020" looks like a loophole big enough to fly a 380 through.


Indeed.

I'm not sure why people insist on seeing these covenants as bulletproof. There's more than enough grey language in them. Maybe those people don't have a lot of experience watching companies manipulate language to their advantage?

To be sure, they'll help, but they don't make workers near as immune as many think.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
usflyer msp
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:46 pm

D L X wrote:
As a DC based AA flier, this is stunning. Basically, the DCA hub has drawn down, but as I look out my window and don’t see the typical plane every 60 seconds, it’s obviously not just AA.

I noticed that the DCA-LAS flight is gone. The AA DCA-LAX flight persists for now. What are the legal requirements for the beyond perimeter flights out of DCA? Is LAS gone for good?


I'm sure DCA-LAS will be back. It is a easy route to cut temporarily as who is going to LAS under the current circumstances?
 
D L X
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:23 pm

onwFan wrote:
I doubt if any airport is going to enforce route authority requirements for not flying empty planes in the current environment..


usflyer msp wrote:
D L X wrote:
As a DC based AA flier, this is stunning. Basically, the DCA hub has drawn down, but as I look out my window and don’t see the typical plane every 60 seconds, it’s obviously not just AA.

I noticed that the DCA-LAS flight is gone. The AA DCA-LAX flight persists for now. What are the legal requirements for the beyond perimeter flights out of DCA? Is LAS gone for good?


I'm sure DCA-LAS will be back. It is a easy route to cut temporarily as who is going to LAS under the current circumstances?


These aren’t authorities controlled by the airport though. They are written into law. And now that AA has had its LAS hub gone for years, DCA-LAS doesn’t actually makes less sense. That’s why I wonder if it’s toast.
 
Boof02671
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:36 pm

Local 501 Secures Stay Home with Pay During Pandemic
On 75th Anniversary, with International’s Assistance

On their 75th anniversary of becoming part of the TWU, Local 501 has secured a tremendous victory.

Local 501 members are Fleet Service and Maintenance & Related workers based in LaGuardia and JFK International Airports in New York City – which currently has the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country.

Local 501 President Victor Gonzalez explained, “We are the hotbed right now. We had a very high number of confirmed cases in our workforce, which led our members to reach out to me. In return, I reached out to the International.”

Local President Gonzalez provided International President John Samuelsen with all the details needed, such as the confirmed number of members infected, and the International was able to get results.

Local 501 came to an agreement with American Airlines to allow workers based at LaGuardia and JFK Airports to work one day out of their workweek and stay home other four days with pay, to stop the spread of the virus. The agreement covers 95% of the local.

“This is the way things should always work. Members express concern to their local, local leadership contacts the International, and members can get the assistance they need – and deserve,” President Samuelsen said. “This is a tremendous victory.”

“We did it to protect our members’ safety and livelihoods,” Gonzalez said.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:19 pm

If we remain in lock down much past 5/1 you can beat your butt the airlines are going to tell the government they can't keep all these employees on the payroll without filing Chapter 11. We are talking for example AA there's going to be capacity cuts of 80% or so for May. No business can maintain and pay a workforce that was pre this level. You can also bet your butt the government will immediately agree. Airline employees who aren't nervous (I doubt there's few of them) and thinking they have a job until 9/30 are foolish.
 
onwFan
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:48 pm

D L X wrote:
onwFan wrote:
I doubt if any airport is going to enforce route authority requirements for not flying empty planes in the current environment..


usflyer msp wrote:
D L X wrote:
As a DC based AA flier, this is stunning. Basically, the DCA hub has drawn down, but as I look out my window and don’t see the typical plane every 60 seconds, it’s obviously not just AA.

I noticed that the DCA-LAS flight is gone. The AA DCA-LAX flight persists for now. What are the legal requirements for the beyond perimeter flights out of DCA? Is LAS gone for good?


I'm sure DCA-LAS will be back. It is a easy route to cut temporarily as who is going to LAS under the current circumstances?


These aren’t authorities controlled by the airport though. They are written into law. And now that AA has had its LAS hub gone for years, DCA-LAS doesn’t actually makes less sense. That’s why I wonder if it’s toast.

Why? DCA is very much a hub for AA. LAS doesn’t need to be a hub for them to make the route work. And they are the only carrier in the WAS-LAS market from DCA. So no reason for them to let it go.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:07 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Airline employees who aren't nervous (I doubt there's few of them) and thinking they have a job until 9/30 are foolish.


The airlines haven't seen a dime yet and I'm wondering how long it will take, if ever. I'm sure that their HR departments getting anxious because if there ARE going to be staff reductions on May 1st they likely need to send out furlough notices next week. Many US states require a minimum notice for layoffs. Anyone junior on the seniority list that thinks they'll be 'kept whole' or even have a job through Sept 30th isn't looking at this logically. And come Oct 1st there will be tens of thousands on the street if even if they DO get this CARE Act straightened out.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:18 pm

D L X wrote:
As a DC based AA flier, this is stunning. Basically, the DCA hub has drawn down, but as I look out my window and don’t see the typical plane every 60 seconds, it’s obviously not just AA.

I noticed that the DCA-LAS flight is gone. The AA DCA-LAX flight persists for now. What are the legal requirements for the beyond perimeter flights out of DCA? Is LAS gone for good?


I know for NYC and LGB they have stated slot usage requirements won't be enforced, i am sure DC is the same. They don't have to use for now. Plus look at LAS demand is 0 right now the hotels are not even open. Cargo can connect. Can't blame AA for cutting a long route like this would burn way too much money.

This flight long term(after a vaccine) will definitely be back, as its printed money. Question is just when LAS demand will be back? Maybe they could operate it to PHX or LAX for a while until the tourist demand comes back to LAS. Long term i would be shocked if its not back though, this flight has been a consistent money maker year round(i know everything has changed until we have a vaccine)
 
Brickell305
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:28 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
D L X wrote:
As a DC based AA flier, this is stunning. Basically, the DCA hub has drawn down, but as I look out my window and don’t see the typical plane every 60 seconds, it’s obviously not just AA.

I noticed that the DCA-LAS flight is gone. The AA DCA-LAX flight persists for now. What are the legal requirements for the beyond perimeter flights out of DCA? Is LAS gone for good?


I know for NYC and LGB they have stated slot usage requirements won't be enforced, i am sure DC is the same. They don't have to use for now. Plus look at LAS demand is 0 right now the hotels are not even open. Cargo can connect. Can't blame AA for cutting a long route like this would burn way too much money.

This flight long term(after a vaccine) will definitely be back, as its printed money. Question is just when LAS demand will be back? Maybe they could operate it to PHX or LAX for a while until the tourist demand comes back to LAS. Long term i would be shocked if its not back though, this flight has been a consistent money maker year round(i know everything has changed until we have a vaccine)

I think what he’s trying to say that’s been missed is that DCA-LAS has nothing to do with slots but with the perimeter rule which is codified into law. AA had an exemption to operate it and he’s wondering if that will remain if it’s dropped.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:42 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
D L X wrote:
As a DC based AA flier, this is stunning. Basically, the DCA hub has drawn down, but as I look out my window and don’t see the typical plane every 60 seconds, it’s obviously not just AA.

I noticed that the DCA-LAS flight is gone. The AA DCA-LAX flight persists for now. What are the legal requirements for the beyond perimeter flights out of DCA? Is LAS gone for good?


I know for NYC and LGB they have stated slot usage requirements won't be enforced, i am sure DC is the same. They don't have to use for now. Plus look at LAS demand is 0 right now the hotels are not even open. Cargo can connect. Can't blame AA for cutting a long route like this would burn way too much money.

This flight long term(after a vaccine) will definitely be back, as its printed money. Question is just when LAS demand will be back? Maybe they could operate it to PHX or LAX for a while until the tourist demand comes back to LAS. Long term i would be shocked if its not back though, this flight has been a consistent money maker year round(i know everything has changed until we have a vaccine)


Isn't the authority for DCA-LAS city-specific, though? The question is whether AA will be willing to wait out the slump and/or for how long DOT will let them keep the slot without operating it.
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Boof02671
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:50 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Airline employees who aren't nervous (I doubt there's few of them) and thinking they have a job until 9/30 are foolish.


The airlines haven't seen a dime yet and I'm wondering how long it will take, if ever. I'm sure that their HR departments getting anxious because if there ARE going to be staff reductions on May 1st they likely need to send out furlough notices next week. Many US states require a minimum notice for layoffs. Anyone junior on the seniority list that thinks they'll be 'kept whole' or even have a job through Sept 30th isn't looking at this logically. And come Oct 1st there will be tens of thousands on the street if even if they DO get this CARE Act straightened out.

Federal law requires 60 day notice under the WARN Act or they have to pay them an additional 60 days worth of pay.
 
D L X
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:01 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
D L X wrote:
As a DC based AA flier, this is stunning. Basically, the DCA hub has drawn down, but as I look out my window and don’t see the typical plane every 60 seconds, it’s obviously not just AA.

I noticed that the DCA-LAS flight is gone. The AA DCA-LAX flight persists for now. What are the legal requirements for the beyond perimeter flights out of DCA? Is LAS gone for good?


I know for NYC and LGB they have stated slot usage requirements won't be enforced, i am sure DC is the same. They don't have to use for now. Plus look at LAS demand is 0 right now the hotels are not even open. Cargo can connect. Can't blame AA for cutting a long route like this would burn way too much money.

This flight long term(after a vaccine) will definitely be back, as its printed money. Question is just when LAS demand will be back? Maybe they could operate it to PHX or LAX for a while until the tourist demand comes back to LAS. Long term i would be shocked if its not back though, this flight has been a consistent money maker year round(i know everything has changed until we have a vaccine)


I'm not sure you guys are understanding my point... which makes sense because I'm not explaining the issue clearly. Because I'm confused myself.

Here's what I know - the beyond perimeter flights out of DCA are codified by law. I just can't find which law it is. What I do know is that some of the slots are "beyond perimeter slots" that the airline that holds it can use to fly wherever they want beyond 1250 miles. The rest of the slots are actually tied by law to a destination airport AND an airline.

Do you think that AA would have preferred to fly DCA-LAS or DCA-SFO after they drew down their LAS hub? I think they fly DCA-LAS because the law required them to do so. That's why I'm surprised that LAS got cut.

49 U.S.C. § 41718.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/49/41718

Brickell305 wrote:
I think what he’s trying to say that’s been missed is that DCA-LAS has nothing to do with slots but with the perimeter rule which is codified into law. AA had an exemption to operate it and he’s wondering if that will remain if it’s dropped.


Yes, that's what I'm trying to get at and understand more about.

I'm pretty sure LAS was encoded in the law. AA got it from US, which got it from HP, which got it from National Airlines. (Remember them?!) https://www.bizjournals.com/washington/ ... ily33.html
 
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NWAESC
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:33 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Airline employees who aren't nervous (I doubt there's few of them) and thinking they have a job until 9/30 are foolish.


There are tons of people that think this "will all be over soon," and that things will get back to normal by June. They're in for a pretty rude awakening. CARES money will help-assuming a carrier gets it- but it won't cover everything, and there is enough grey area in the language to leave a lot of workers unprotected.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
32andBelow
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:50 am

NWAESC wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Airline employees who aren't nervous (I doubt there's few of them) and thinking they have a job until 9/30 are foolish.


There are tons of people that think this "will all be over soon," and that things will get back to normal by June. They're in for a pretty rude awakening. CARES money will help-assuming a carrier gets it- but it won't cover everything, and there is enough grey area in the language to leave a lot of workers unprotected.

You don’t know when things are going to get back to normal.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:53 am

Agreed. There are a whole lot of factors that are going to impact the outcome in the long-run.
In no particular order:

1) The US-based airlines tend to fly the most capacity in Q2 and Q3, which are their biggest revenue quarters of the year. DL for example flies about 30% more ASMs in peak summer versus low-winter. While the airlines had found a way to be profitable in every quarter (unlike 10-15 years ago where they make a ton of money in Q3 and burn it all up in Q1) there is a bit of an element where the revenue of Q2 and Q3 subsidize a portion of the rest of the year.
The US airlines are going to lose almost all of Q2, and Q3 is going to be heavily, heavily impacted, particularly when likely to lose a lot of TATL demand, a lot of TATL & TPAC business traffic, and a lot domestic. Thus, going into what is going to be a slower Q4 and Q1 than normal. This is going to have implications on fleet and employees for a smaller operation.

2) US companies by nature are very risk adverse. I'm not sure how quick most companies are going to be to relax travel restrictions coming out of this. One from a cost-cutting perspective, but more importantly from a risk/employee safety standpoint. It will be tough to say people need/can travel for work if there is a risk of the virus. Its a much higher than normal risk profile than many companies will want to bear unless there is a lot more certainty around safeguards and risk of contagion While some leisure/personal travel may resume earlier, it could be well into July or August before many companies feel comfortable with putting their employees back on planes and in hotels.

3) Conferences, conventions, & discretionary business travel isn't going to happen much this year, for reasons said above. This is going impact convention-heavy destinations for the rest of the year.
Last edited by PSU.DTW.SCE on Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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NWAESC
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:53 am

32AndBelow—

Nobody does, but I’m pretty confident that flight loads in June 2020 aren’t gonna look anything like they did in 2019.
Last edited by NWAESC on Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:00 am

Considering 80% of tickets are booked within 4-5 weeks of departure, right now no one is booking anything for April or May.
The country is going to be in shelter-in-place/stay-at-home mode until at least end of April if not mid/late May.
Even then, maybe at best there is some loosening of restrictions, people aren't going to start to book travel until mid-May probably for June-July-August travel.
Granted, is some amount of advanced bookings out there for summer vacations that people may have made in early-Winter, but right now is the time that a lot of families finalize their summer vacation travels.

Its going to be a weird summer. Plus with the amount of schools that cancelled the remainder of the school year, many places are considering starting earlier than normal to make up for the lost time, more places are going to be going back to school in early-mid August in places in the Midwest / Northeast that didn't typically go back until around Labor Day.
 
acavpics
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:30 am

This may be a bit off topic, but I am really wondering what these will look like come December 2020 holiday season. It's pretty clear that summer 2020 is a washout.
 
Rdh3e
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:27 am

D L X wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
D L X wrote:
As a DC based AA flier, this is stunning. Basically, the DCA hub has drawn down, but as I look out my window and don’t see the typical plane every 60 seconds, it’s obviously not just AA.

I noticed that the DCA-LAS flight is gone. The AA DCA-LAX flight persists for now. What are the legal requirements for the beyond perimeter flights out of DCA? Is LAS gone for good?


I know for NYC and LGB they have stated slot usage requirements won't be enforced, i am sure DC is the same. They don't have to use for now. Plus look at LAS demand is 0 right now the hotels are not even open. Cargo can connect. Can't blame AA for cutting a long route like this would burn way too much money.

This flight long term(after a vaccine) will definitely be back, as its printed money. Question is just when LAS demand will be back? Maybe they could operate it to PHX or LAX for a while until the tourist demand comes back to LAS. Long term i would be shocked if its not back though, this flight has been a consistent money maker year round(i know everything has changed until we have a vaccine)


I'm not sure you guys are understanding my point... which makes sense because I'm not explaining the issue clearly. Because I'm confused myself.

Here's what I know - the beyond perimeter flights out of DCA are codified by law. I just can't find which law it is. What I do know is that some of the slots are "beyond perimeter slots" that the airline that holds it can use to fly wherever they want beyond 1250 miles. The rest of the slots are actually tied by law to a destination airport AND an airline.

Do you think that AA would have preferred to fly DCA-LAS or DCA-SFO after they drew down their LAS hub? I think they fly DCA-LAS because the law required them to do so. That's why I'm surprised that LAS got cut.

49 U.S.C. § 41718.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/49/41718

Brickell305 wrote:
I think what he’s trying to say that’s been missed is that DCA-LAS has nothing to do with slots but with the perimeter rule which is codified into law. AA had an exemption to operate it and he’s wondering if that will remain if it’s dropped.


Yes, that's what I'm trying to get at and understand more about.

I'm pretty sure LAS was encoded in the law. AA got it from US, which got it from HP, which got it from National Airlines. (Remember them?!) https://www.bizjournals.com/washington/ ... ily33.html

All it means is that they can't use that slot for something else.
Slot utilization requirements have been waived worldwide so there is no risk of it being taken away and this no reason to fly it.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:10 am

AH yeah now I'm understanding everything. Yeah you are right its probably tied to LAS not the newer beyond perimeter. I would guess then they will ride it out then. I doubt they want to lose that flight. Long term we all know the market come back its just a question of when. But it would make sense for them to not fly it now while they are not required too. Add it back right when they have too. It can feed LAX passengers also while the LAS demand is much less?
 
Miamiairport
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:01 pm

What one needs to realize is that governments are going to be forced to re-open the economy before the crisis is completely over. A Global Depression beats Covid 19 any day, particularly in Western countries. A USATODAY article pointed out that 86% of the deaths in the USA were people with health issues and/or aged. Older people and people with health issues severe enough to die from this virus (and yes 14% didn't have underlying health issues) tend not be actively involved in the economy. This might sound cruel but it's basic math of which situation will drive the most human misery.

Back to the airline industry. The business model for the past 2 decades has been to put a butt in every seat on every flight. However, are Americans going to be comfortable in short order again having some total stranger rubbing elbows with them for hours? Probably not.

The "full service airlines" (and yes in many ways that's an oxymoron) can keep capacity significantly cut, jack up fares and try to eek out a profit flying 50% full planes 1970s style with business travelers and a few leisure travelers that will pay the much higher fares. The exception might be AA in the US as far as being able to remain profitable given their weaker financial performance in good times.

But then what about the ULCCs that are totally dependent upon a price point conscious leisure flyer? How would they cope in this new at least interim world?

With respect airline workers and the guarantee of employment until the end of September if their airline takes bailout money. The most important word (and lethal word to airline employees) in that agreement is "practical." Does anyone honestly think the airlines are going to prevented from firing workers if not doing so will mean their demise. Or so they will claim. Airline employee firings are coming and sadly for airline folks it's going to be something never seen before.
 
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NWAESC
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:19 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
With respect airline workers and the guarantee of employment until the end of September if their airline takes bailout money. The most important word (and lethal word to airline employees) in that agreement is "practical." Does anyone honestly think the airlines are going to prevented from firing workers if not doing so will mean their demise. Or so they will claim. Airline employee firings are coming and sadly for airline folks it's going to be something never seen before.


People are ignoring both the CARES language and the Force Majeure clauses in their contracts (for those covered).


I don't know if it's just denial, a coping mechanism, or what. I just hope everyone has a plan for what's coming this fall.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
Rdh3e
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:02 pm

NWAESC wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
With respect airline workers and the guarantee of employment until the end of September if their airline takes bailout money. The most important word (and lethal word to airline employees) in that agreement is "practical." Does anyone honestly think the airlines are going to prevented from firing workers if not doing so will mean their demise. Or so they will claim. Airline employee firings are coming and sadly for airline folks it's going to be something never seen before.


People are ignoring both the CARES language and the Force Majeure clauses in their contracts (for those covered).


I don't know if it's just denial, a coping mechanism, or what. I just hope everyone has a plan for what's coming this fall.

What is interesting is that the law states airlines may not reduce employment more than 10%. At this time I'd bet there are a hell of a lot of people looking for new jobs because they see the writing on the wall 10/1, so theoretically an airline could naturally lose 10% of its workforce voluntarily and be in violation of that clause. I'm sure the government would waive that provision in that instance, but it is interesting that there is a separate clause on total employment in addition to the barring of involuntary separations.
 
FATFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:35 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
A USATODAY article pointed out that 86% of the deaths in the USA were people with health issues and/or aged. Older people and people with health issues severe enough to die from this virus (and yes 14% didn't have underlying health issues) tend not be actively involved in the economy. This might sound cruel but it's basic math of which situation will drive the most human misery.


I would be careful about interpreting the article that way.

First, USAToday looked only at New York deaths, not the entire US. We may or may not be able to apply that data nationwide.

What the article said was that the two most common health issues among the NY deaths were:
  • Hypertension (high blood pressure) was a preexisting condition in 55% of the NY deaths.
  • Diabetes was a preexisting condition in 37% of the NY deaths

Both of those health issues show up among the work force.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
D L X
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:59 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
A USATODAY article pointed out that 86% of the deaths in the USA were people with health issues and/or aged. Older people and people with health issues severe enough to die from this virus (and yes 14% didn't have underlying health issues) tend not be actively involved in the economy. This might sound cruel but it's basic math of which situation will drive the most human misery.


Two major problems with this line of thinking.

1) Diabetics, people with high blood pressure, and various other conditions are still frequent fliers. Everyone over 40 has some sort of condition.

2) This is just *deaths* in New York. A few hundred thousand people were put on their ass by this disease but not killed. To my knowledge, I have not caught coronavirus, but I won't be flying any time soon because I have zero interest in possibly being put on my ass by this disease, even if the odds are that it won't kill me.
 
Brickell305
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:00 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
A USATODAY article pointed out that 86% of the deaths in the USA were people with health issues and/or aged. Older people and people with health issues severe enough to die from this virus (and yes 14% didn't have underlying health issues) tend not be actively involved in the economy. This might sound cruel but it's basic math of which situation will drive the most human misery.


I would be careful about interpreting the article that way.

First, USAToday looked only at New York deaths, not the entire US. We may or may not be able to apply that data nationwide.

What the article said was that the two most common health issues among the NY deaths were:
  • Hypertension (high blood pressure) was a preexisting condition in 55% of the NY deaths.
  • Diabetes was a preexisting condition in 37% of the NY deaths

Both of those health issues show up among the work force.


Exactly. People with high blood pressure and diabetes make up significant percentages of the US workforce. Furthermore, while the elderly may no longer work, they are certainly consumers. Apart from that, healthcare and more specifically care of the elderly are both contributors to the economy.
 
HVNandrew
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:55 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
A USATODAY article pointed out that 86% of the deaths in the USA were people with health issues and/or aged. Older people and people with health issues severe enough to die from this virus (and yes 14% didn't have underlying health issues) tend not be actively involved in the economy. This might sound cruel but it's basic math of which situation will drive the most human misery.


I would be careful about interpreting the article that way.

First, USAToday looked only at New York deaths, not the entire US. We may or may not be able to apply that data nationwide.

What the article said was that the two most common health issues among the NY deaths were:
  • Hypertension (high blood pressure) was a preexisting condition in 55% of the NY deaths.
  • Diabetes was a preexisting condition in 37% of the NY deaths

Both of those health issues show up among the work force.

Doesn't something like a third to half of the adult US population have hypertension? Saying that the virus primarily effects those with underlying health issues doesn't narrow the pool that much when that high of the population base has an underlying condition like that. And to your point, a lot of people in the work force are going to have those underlying conditions.
 
FATFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:20 pm

Another one to ponder about whether or not the deaths are people not actively involved in the economy.

As of Thursday April 4, Reuters reported that 97% of the coronavirus deaths in Louisiana were people with preexisting conditions.

The Louisiana breakdown includes:
  • Diabetes was seen in 40% of the Louisiana deaths
  • Obesity in 25%
  • Chronic kidney disease in 23%
  • Cardiac problems in 21%.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-new-orleans/why-is-new-orleans-coronavirus-death-rate-twice-new-yorks-obesity-is-a-factor-idUSKBN21K1B0

Given that 42% of US adults are classified as obese or heavier, that adds another risk factor among those in the workforce.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
joeblow10
Posts: 416
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:32 am

I have a hunch UA is about to load additional May changes tomorrow. Multiple flights in markets I’ve been watching in mid May have suddenly shot up tremendously in price this afternoon (from $49 to $289 each way), and these aren’t long thin markets I expect them to suspend, they are 3x-6x daily markets.
 
alasizon
Posts: 2597
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:31 am

Rdh3e wrote:
NWAESC wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
With respect airline workers and the guarantee of employment until the end of September if their airline takes bailout money. The most important word (and lethal word to airline employees) in that agreement is "practical." Does anyone honestly think the airlines are going to prevented from firing workers if not doing so will mean their demise. Or so they will claim. Airline employee firings are coming and sadly for airline folks it's going to be something never seen before.


People are ignoring both the CARES language and the Force Majeure clauses in their contracts (for those covered).


I don't know if it's just denial, a coping mechanism, or what. I just hope everyone has a plan for what's coming this fall.

What is interesting is that the law states airlines may not reduce employment more than 10%. At this time I'd bet there are a hell of a lot of people looking for new jobs because they see the writing on the wall 10/1, so theoretically an airline could naturally lose 10% of its workforce voluntarily and be in violation of that clause. I'm sure the government would waive that provision in that instance, but it is interesting that there is a separate clause on total employment in addition to the barring of involuntary separations.


A clause stating that an airline may not reduce employment by 10% is not violated when the employees take it upon themselves to reduce it without any airline telling them to do so. If you quit, it's not the airline's fault.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
alfa164
Posts: 3608
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Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:52 am

FATFlyer wrote:
Given that 42% of US adults are classified as obese or heavier, that adds another risk factor among those in the workforce.


Ironic, I know....but I think I would change my name from FATFlyer until this blows over...

;)
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3624
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:08 pm

alasizon wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
NWAESC wrote:

People are ignoring both the CARES language and the Force Majeure clauses in their contracts (for those covered).


I don't know if it's just denial, a coping mechanism, or what. I just hope everyone has a plan for what's coming this fall.

What is interesting is that the law states airlines may not reduce employment more than 10%. At this time I'd bet there are a hell of a lot of people looking for new jobs because they see the writing on the wall 10/1, so theoretically an airline could naturally lose 10% of its workforce voluntarily and be in violation of that clause. I'm sure the government would waive that provision in that instance, but it is interesting that there is a separate clause on total employment in addition to the barring of involuntary separations.


A clause stating that an airline may not reduce employment by 10% is not violated when the employees take it upon themselves to reduce it without any airline telling them to do so. If you quit, it's not the airline's fault.

That is not what is stated in the act.
 
DeltaPSCFlyer
Posts: 77
Joined: Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/5/2020: Jaw-Dropping

Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:44 pm

alfa164 wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
Given that 42% of US adults are classified as obese or heavier, that adds another risk factor among those in the workforce.


Ironic, I know....but I think I would change my name from FATFlyer until this blows over...

;)


Or maybe he's from Fresno, CA....FAT -> Fresno Air Terminal

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