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airlinewatcher1
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How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:15 am

It seems like the news from Frontier and other U.S. ULCC's has been relatively quiet. But I did read that F9 has cut 90% of their capacity, and that the Federal bailout for the airline industry doesn't help F9 much because of the highly infrequent and seasonal operation of many of their routes.

I hope the ULCC's make it out of this intact!
 
rph99
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:55 am

I believe F9 is one of if not the most cash profitable airlines of all the US Airlines. I am no expert but I think F9 will survive this and might actually recoup pax faster than other airlines will.
 
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RWA380
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:58 am

rph99 wrote:
I believe F9 is one of if not the most cash profitable airlines of all the US Airlines. I am no expert but I think F9 will survive this and might actually recoup pax faster than other airlines will.


Not at $78 r/t PDX-MSP. I just got an email from one of the online sites. Another had F9 to SFO & LAX for under !00.00 r/t via DEN.
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BigGSFO
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:04 am

I suspect that Frontier and Spirit have a longer road to recovery, if they make it thru this, than others. They rely a lot of leisure traffic and not the higher yielding business traffic. When travel begins to come back and companies start sending folks back out into the world, business travel will probably rebound faster than leisure. Just my armchair assessment.
 
rojo
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:05 am

RWA380 wrote:
rph99 wrote:
I believe F9 is one of if not the most cash profitable airlines of all the US Airlines. I am no expert but I think F9 will survive this and might actually recoup pax faster than other airlines will.


Not at $78 r/t PDX-MSP. I just got an email from one of the online sites. Another had F9 to SFO & LAX for under !00.00 r/t via DEN.


Every airline was selling flights on routes with a lot of competition at very low fares. F9 cut its capacity by 90% for the next month and a half so they don't continue to give away their product.

F9 had one of the lowest (or the lowest) CASM in the industry (pre COVID19 Crisis). If they manage to survive, they will be able to return and be a strong competitor to the legacies and hybrids.
 
joeblow10
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:21 am

BigGSFO wrote:
I suspect that Frontier and Spirit have a longer road to recovery, if they make it thru this, than others. They rely a lot of leisure traffic and not the higher yielding business traffic. When travel begins to come back and companies start sending folks back out into the world, business travel will probably rebound faster than leisure. Just my armchair assessment.


Obviously we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out, but I suspect it’s actually the total opposite. The moment people are allowed to leave their homes and get back out there the demand for cheap getaways will pick up, and I would suspect much faster than the demand for expensive business travel given the current climate.

F9 and NK with low costs should fair pretty well, and be able to make minimal profits or break even if the demand recovers enough. The legacies can certainly compete on the price point... but it’ll hurt them a lot more
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:40 am

I had to drive out to the FedEx location at MCO today & noticed that F9 had parked 5 A320's in the remote stand normally used by long-haul airlines. Here's their fleet status:

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Frontier-Airlines

It looks like NK is not pulling their fleet down substantially, which may hurt them badly if they continue with the near-empty flights.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Spirit-Airlines
 
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sunking737
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:45 am

Coming soon, the Spirit of Frontier..
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Woodreau
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:51 am

Spirit stops flying on April 8 (only 21 stations will be served after this date). Spirit planes will be joining the frontier ones parked on the ramp.
The remaining flying will just be one daily flight between the 21 stations.
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SteveXC500
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:54 am

 
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pwm2txlhopper
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:14 am

RWA380 wrote:
rph99 wrote:
I believe F9 is one of if not the most cash profitable airlines of all the US Airlines. I am no expert but I think F9 will survive this and might actually recoup pax faster than other airlines will.


Not at $78 r/t PDX-MSP. I just got an email from one of the online sites. Another had F9 to SFO & LAX for under !00.00 r/t via DEN.


I just met a a guy at my work who flew on one of the Florida to PWM routes for $15 the other day.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:14 am

I actually believe that NK may be better off than F9, as NK has been more conservative with growth strategies and also has a lot more assets on its balance sheet than F9 (NK is about half-owned, half-leased). While F9 does order many of its frames directly, the entire fleet is leased, most via sale-leaseback. Keep in mind that NK has already suspended service into the hardest-hit areas.

I do see NK and F9 making it through.
 
Chuska
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:17 am

Frontier has at least 30 aircraft parked at ROW as of today, Apr 6. A319s, A320s, and A321s, no A320neos yet. Interestingly, each day they ferried aircraft into ROW, they sent an extra aircraft in and right back out as if it was bringing all the crew members back to their base (DEN, PHX, LAS, and MCO).
 
Chuska
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:21 am

Not to be forgotten, Allegiant is in the same boat. Anyone have some word on them?
 
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RWA380
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:40 am

pwm2txlhopper wrote:
RWA380 wrote:
rph99 wrote:
I believe F9 is one of if not the most cash profitable airlines of all the US Airlines. I am no expert but I think F9 will survive this and might actually recoup pax faster than other airlines will.


Not at $78 r/t PDX-MSP. I just got an email from one of the online sites. Another had F9 to SFO & LAX for under !00.00 r/t via DEN.


I just met a a guy at my work who flew on one of the Florida to PWM routes for $15 the other day.


That sounds fair for F9. About what we paid on NK for a PDX-DFW.
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B727skyguy
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:46 am

I'm surprised no one has mentioned Sun Country (SY). They appear to have suspended all operations at MSN. The new service they announced (e.g. MSN-PDX) isn't happening, and all of their already scheduled flights have been cancelled.

(source: Dane County Regional Airport departure and arrival screens)
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:50 am

F9 cancelled our June flights to PHL, and we now have a credit to use for a future flight. Already re-booked with AA. I think they will be around as travel demand picks up over the Summer and Fall. Now it's time to figure out where we go with those credits.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:54 am

https://thepointsguy.com/news/us-airlin ... ronavirus/

No info for Frontier as they are privately owned but G4 is in a pretty good position with cash on hand compared to peers. Spirit not too far behind. My guess is that Frontier is probably in an even better position.

As far as parking planes, it looks like Spirit may be starting to store some of their planes as well.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NKS ... /KFLL/KLCQ
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NKS8621
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NKS8632
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NKS8649
 
twaconnie
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:22 am

Let's not forget Breeze what challenges will they face, getting started.
 
tphuang
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:17 pm

G4 is in great position. Their entire model is flying when there is demand and that models works now better than any other model. They will be fine. F9 could possibly have the same model, but they have an overly aggressive growth strategy that puts in trouble. NK has a regular schedule like WN and B6. They don't really do the same model as G4/F9. They are in greater trouble here with all those new aircraft deliveries just sitting around. I'm going through NK pilot forum and they still haven't suspended their new hire classes. What are these geniuses thinking? That's a sure way to burn cash.

If they don't get the grants (since they are clearly not flying to every city they flew to before this started), then both F9 and NK are in a lot of trouble.
 
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:38 pm

twaconnie wrote:
Let's not forget Breeze what challenges will they face, getting started.


We probably can forget Breeze in this capacity and fare environment - they'd blow thru start-up cash too quickly. Start-ups don't commence operations with 24-36 months cash on hand.
 
nkops
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:50 pm

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KA ... te/airline

looks like a lot of NK planes will be stored at ACY
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rajincajun01
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:50 pm

B727skyguy wrote:
I'm surprised no one has mentioned Sun Country (SY). They appear to have suspended all operations at MSN. The new service they announced (e.g. MSN-PDX) isn't happening, and all of their already scheduled flights have been cancelled.

(source: Dane County Regional Airport departure and arrival screens)


SY CEO has said multiple times MSN has been doing and fully intends to do return this summer. SY returned their Transavia planes early and has been picking up repatriation flights. SY took delivery of the first Amazon aircraft and starts that business this month.
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lightsaber
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:11 pm

Is there any indication if F9's or NK's cash burn?

MIflyer12 wrote:
twaconnie wrote:
Let's not forget Breeze what challenges will they face, getting started.


We probably can forget Breeze in this capacity and fare environment - they'd blow thru start-up cash too quickly. Start-ups don't commence operations with 24-36 months cash on hand.

Obviously Breeze will start later. However, it might be better to cancel the launch.

Lightsaber
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tphuang
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:14 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Is there any indication if F9's or NK's cash burn?

MIflyer12 wrote:
twaconnie wrote:
Let's not forget Breeze what challenges will they face, getting started.


We probably can forget Breeze in this capacity and fare environment - they'd blow thru start-up cash too quickly. Start-ups don't commence operations with 24-36 months cash on hand.

Obviously Breeze will start later. However, it might be better to cancel the launch.

Lightsaber

I would guess it's in proportion to their overall cost?

DL Q4 cost was $10 billion, apparently burning $60 million a day
B6 Q4 cost was $1.8 billion, apparently burning more than $10 million a day
NK Q4 cost was $845 million. Based on the trends from above, they'd be burning around $4 million a day right now. Maybe less since they cut flying by 90% for April. Question is if they get any of the grant for gov't.

btw JBLU Q4 salary was $589 million and NK was around $220 million. So even if NK does get grant money, it would probably only get 1/3 of what JBLUE got or a little more than 1/20th of what DL gets (so my guess is $300 million range at best). Good to give them another 3 months of operation if things improve a little bit. If not, they are filing chapter 11 by Q4.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:15 pm

I think all airlines right now are in the same boat. The question is what will the economy look like after this is all over and how will that bode for the ULCCs? They have very little corporate travel. Some small business travel I would guess but it seems as though small businesses are going to be the most harmed and least able to cope.

I see the ULCCs emerging as smaller airlines, as well as the legacies. If we have 20% unemployment (even for months afterwards) I don't see too many people keen on going to Disney (or anywhere else).
 
ericm2031
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:45 pm

Just kind of curious, how does it work when you use a mostly outsourced frontline workforce? Do those vendor companies get paid for each flight worked or is it just a set amount for the contract? Having much a smaller payroll is probably a benefit in these times.
 
AaronPGH
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:50 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Obviously Breeze will start later. However, it might be better to cancel the launch.

Lightsaber


Who knows what lies on the other side of this thing. All this industry turbulence could create more of an opening for Breeze.
 
nws2002
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:09 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
Just kind of curious, how does it work when you use a mostly outsourced frontline workforce? Do those vendor companies get paid for each flight worked or is it just a set amount for the contract? Having much a smaller payroll is probably a benefit in these times.


Most ground handling contracts are per turn. It is usually scheduled turn though, so the ground handlers likely were paid something for the immediate cancellations. After a certain point though, the cancellations are just schedule changes, which are not paid under most contracts.
 
CALMSP
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:14 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
Just kind of curious, how does it work when you use a mostly outsourced frontline workforce? Do those vendor companies get paid for each flight worked or is it just a set amount for the contract? Having much a smaller payroll is probably a benefit in these times.


depends on the verbiage of the contract. Some have a scale where it is per turn but also based on labor where the ground handler pays the normal wage of the employee, then the airline pays 50-60% premium on top of that hourly rate.

as for NK/F9, they are in a better position as F9 outsources 100% of their airports, NK outsources all but FLL. So they are in a better position labor wise while I expect the ground handling companies to tank, shrink and consolidate/go out of business.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:05 pm

I think this crisis will force NK/F9/G4/B6 to merge into one carrier... after all they all fly A320s too.
OK... I'm just messing with everyone.... :D ... of course I don't believe that!

Six months from now it will be interesting to see how NK, F9, G4 are weathering this storm in comparison to the Big4 (WN, AA, UA, DL). As LLCs they operate a bit differently than the Big4. B6 is sooo affected by this, I wonder what they will look like in six months.
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FLALEFTY
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:10 pm

Chuska wrote:
Not to be forgotten, Allegiant is in the same boat. Anyone have some word on them?


Here's Allegiant's fleet status. Over 50% of their fleet is parked.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Allegiant-Air
 
767driver
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:58 pm

tphuang wrote:
G I'm going through NK pilot forum and they still haven't suspended their new hire classes. What are these geniuses thinking? That's a sure way to burn cash.

.


The decision was made to not rescind offers to those already scheduled for April classes. The April class will continue but will be spread out over two months in smaller class increments. There are no new hires after that.
 
freakyrat
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:14 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I actually believe that NK may be better off than F9, as NK has been more conservative with growth strategies and also has a lot more assets on its balance sheet than F9 (NK is about half-owned, half-leased). While F9 does order many of its frames directly, the entire fleet is leased, most via sale-leaseback. Keep in mind that NK has already suspended service into the hardest-hit areas.

I do see NK and F9 making it through.


NK has nine jets parked at AFW. Fort Worth Alliance.
 
freakyrat
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:17 pm

nkops wrote:
https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KACY/enroute/airline

looks like a lot of NK planes will be stored at ACY


They have 9 A320's parked at Fort Worth Alliance. AFW.
 
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tb727
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:20 pm

767driver wrote:
tphuang wrote:
G I'm going through NK pilot forum and they still haven't suspended their new hire classes. What are these geniuses thinking? That's a sure way to burn cash.

.


The decision was made to not rescind offers to those already scheduled for April classes. The April class will continue but will be spread out over two months in smaller class increments. There are no new hires after that.


lol he clearly doesn't know the starting pay at NK, that isn't exactly going to break the bank.

Lots of pilots ~800 took the month of May off with a 30% pay cut, it's a few million but it's something.

To those that think the ULCC won't make it or will have a longer time recovering are secretly just wanting us to die off and go away anyways.

Our cost structures and the way we do business is already got us prepared for a quicker rebound than the big guys. Single type fleets, pretty average employee pay and contracted services at most stations. We have been doing cheap flights since ulcc became a thing. AA, DL and UA have all put a few basic economy options out there, they are losing money doing it. Legacy costs are massive, it will all come back but people will be doing domestic leisure travel well before overseas leisure after being cooped up for a few months. I hope we all make it, I have been though enough low points in aviation, a couple that lasted a decade at a time. This one will hopefully rebound much quicker.
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tb727
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:21 pm

freakyrat wrote:
nkops wrote:
https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KACY/enroute/airline

looks like a lot of NK planes will be stored at ACY


They have 9 A320's parked at Fort Worth Alliance. AFW.


Multiple planes going to Detroit Willow Run-YIP as well, 10 in total. 17 will be parked at DTW. I think about 8-10 more to AFW.
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ericm2031
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:38 pm

CALMSP wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
Just kind of curious, how does it work when you use a mostly outsourced frontline workforce? Do those vendor companies get paid for each flight worked or is it just a set amount for the contract? Having much a smaller payroll is probably a benefit in these times.


depends on the verbiage of the contract. Some have a scale where it is per turn but also based on labor where the ground handler pays the normal wage of the employee, then the airline pays 50-60% premium on top of that hourly rate.

as for NK/F9, they are in a better position as F9 outsources 100% of their airports, NK outsources all but FLL. So they are in a better position labor wise while I expect the ground handling companies to tank, shrink and consolidate/go out of business.


nws2002 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
Just kind of curious, how does it work when you use a mostly outsourced frontline workforce? Do those vendor companies get paid for each flight worked or is it just a set amount for the contract? Having much a smaller payroll is probably a benefit in these times.


Most ground handling contracts are per turn. It is usually scheduled turn though, so the ground handlers likely were paid something for the immediate cancellations. After a certain point though, the cancellations are just schedule changes, which are not paid under most contracts.


Thank you both for the explanation, I figured it was somewhat of a per turn fee. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of them go under except the wholly owned ones. Although they can all easily cut their costs to almost zero with furloughs and then bring them back on as needed, with just a little bit of training to catch back up on as long as it hasn't lapsed too long.
 
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:32 am

joeblow10 wrote:
Obviously we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out, but I suspect it’s actually the total opposite. The moment people are allowed to leave their homes and get back out there the demand for cheap getaways will pick up, and I would suspect much faster than the demand for expensive business travel given the current climate.


I applaud your enthusiasm, but with 9 million new claims for unemployment over the last 2 weeks, I suspect people might be rebuilding their personal finances for awhile before returning to leisure travel.
 
alasizon
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:55 am

NameOmitted wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
Obviously we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out, but I suspect it’s actually the total opposite. The moment people are allowed to leave their homes and get back out there the demand for cheap getaways will pick up, and I would suspect much faster than the demand for expensive business travel given the current climate.


I applaud your enthusiasm, but with 9 million new claims for unemployment over the last 2 weeks, I suspect people might be rebuilding their personal finances for awhile before returning to leisure travel.


Depending on the state, between the state unemployment plus the federal $600/week, some people are actually making more than if they were working. The Federal $600 ends in July but still it is propping up people semi-well.
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Miamiairport
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:47 pm

My understanding the cap is $600 a week, not in addition to. Most state unemployment compensation is woefully weak. It's about $150 a week in Florida. What people don't understand is that unemployment will, and likely already is, moving up the food chain. A company with no or little revenues can't afford all the professional staff and managers even if they can work at home. Take a couple making $200K a year together and suddenly their down to $62K a year ($600 a week each) plus maybe some additional state unemployment and the hole is big enough to drive a truck through. Sure there's a few frugal people that can live on a 1/3 of their previous income but that's a rarity in today's world. Either way lots of people going to be surely hurting.

And the number of new jobs for awhile will be far and few. In 2008/2009 I personally knew 3 people that committed suicide, all highly paid professionals. When they were fired there was nothing out there. But they had the big mortgage on the big house they couldn't sell, the car payment, etc. Look at consumer debt levels since then-nothing has changed
 
hiflyeras
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:57 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
And the number of new jobs for awhile will be far and few. In 2008/2009 I personally knew 3 people that committed suicide, all highly paid professionals. When they were fired there was nothing out there. But they had the big mortgage on the big house they couldn't sell, the car payment, etc. Look at consumer debt levels since then-nothing has changed


Our neighbor, a man in his late 50's, has been out of work for months (pretty specialized field). They're prettying up their house and I have a feeling it's going on the market. But who will be buying right now? This whole thing is going to be devastating for those without enough money stashed away to get by for months and months. My airline reduced flying by nearly 90% for the remainder of April and May....lots of people not working and for how long? I don't see things picking up until fall at the soonest.

Re: NK and F9...mostly leisure me thinks so not as dependant as the majors for business travelers. I think it's actually the big 3 that will be hurt when companies realize they don't need their employees to travel as much. This was said after 9/11 but this time I think it'll stick. Skype and Zoom are the winners. And pent-up demand to travel will help the leisure carriers like these two...as well as maybe AS, B6, HA and WN.
 
afcjets
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:34 pm

BigGSFO wrote:
I suspect that Frontier and Spirit have a longer road to recovery, if they make it thru this, than others. They rely a lot of leisure traffic and not the higher yielding business traffic. When travel begins to come back and companies start sending folks back out into the world, business travel will probably rebound faster than leisure. Just my armchair assessment.


I think leisure travel will rebound faster. Vacations or trips to visit friends and family are more likely to be deferred rather than cancelled, especially after living in captivity for so long. The businesses that survive will be leaner and are already transitioning to virtual as much as possible. It's hard to do that with a vacation.
 
afcjets
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Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:39 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
Obviously we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out, but I suspect it’s actually the total opposite. The moment people are allowed to leave their homes and get back out there the demand for cheap getaways will pick up, and I would suspect much faster than the demand for expensive business travel given the current climate.
I applaud your enthusiasm, but with 9 million new claims for unemployment over the last 2 weeks, I suspect people might be rebuilding their personal finances for awhile before returning to leisure travel.


If unemployment reaches 20 that wouldn't affect the other 80 percent. Businesses travel is likely to drop much more than 20 percent with the new virtual trend, even if no companies went out of business or downsized.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 264
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:50 pm

afcjets wrote:
If unemployment reaches 20 that wouldn't affect the other 80 percent. Businesses travel is likely to drop much more than 20 percent with the new virtual trend, even if no companies went out of business or downsized.


That's a pretty shallow view. Over 80% of households (working and not collecting a fixed income) have reported a significant drop in income. The numbers are startling -- nearly 1-in-3 rents failed to make their payment for the month (and many more didn't pay it in full), credit card companies are bracing for record defaults, etc. Don't be deceived by unemployment numbers ... many people who are working, have taken significant pay cuts or accepted a lower-paying position/job. It'll be a long while before we fully recover from this.

Meanwhile, there's no evidence of a full "virtual trend" in business. Business travel will continue to be essential to the needs of a business for multitude of reasons, and will recover much faster than that of families wishing to blow $10K on a Disney Cruise.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 144
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:57 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
Obviously we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out, but I suspect it’s actually the total opposite. The moment people are allowed to leave their homes and get back out there the demand for cheap getaways will pick up, and I would suspect much faster than the demand for expensive business travel given the current climate.


I applaud your enthusiasm, but with 9 million new claims for unemployment over the last 2 weeks, I suspect people might be rebuilding their personal finances for awhile before returning to leisure travel.


Yeah, I don’t think the average person realizes how big of a situation this is. This is not 9/11 or 2008 financial crisis. This is something on a completely different level. Airline networks will look nothing close to what they looked like last year or earlier this year. And with no vaccine on the horizon until mid next year, it will be at least one more year until traffic even begins to bottom out.

People need to think about what will happen when flu season kicks up again in the fall. More quarantines? I don’t know, but it will certainly make people (and definitely businesses) double guess traveling until a vaccine is found.

Until the industry bottoms out, it begs the question do we really need the number of airlines we have today? There is no demand to support 1 airline, let alone the 8 to 10 major airlines we have in the U.S. today.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4702
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:44 am

I would not count out Breeze. They are basically just paused their payroll is nothing. They were gonna use Azul aircraft anyway their own aircraft dont arrive for a while.

Also the airlines are retiring planes like crazy. There will be opportunities with so much retiring. We all know demand will be back especially for leisure traffic eventually. That is their niche customer. I think they can find routes and their own niche.

Count their blessings they didnt just launch that would be death!! They are lucky they are not even ready yet. They were rushing since their was so much demand . They get the advantage to start fresh and what customers want in 2022 let's say, they dont have a model they have to adjust.
 
HomeSlice
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:15 am

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:17 am

I'm in Las Vegas. Spirit has around 15 planes parked in a couple different locations at LAS, almost all of them in yellow trim. Frontier had 7 or 8 planes parked on the cargo ramp last time I drove by there.
 
n7371f
Posts: 1802
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:07 am

Breeze is going forward. First E95 is about to come out of MTC in Brazil in their specs and flown to US to begin proving flights. Breeze will operate as a charter airline initially, which by the way was part of a back-up plan should the economy go into the shitter. Complete hiring freeze and everything has to go across David's desk for spend approval. But it's full aboard to earning their own certificate, getting the first plane and then operating on the periphery until economy comes around enough to begin scheduled service.

And no one knows what F9's financials actually look like - since Bill Franke owns them. Will have to wait for DOT41 docs for that...many months after.

lightsaber wrote:
Is there any indication if F9's or NK's cash burn?

MIflyer12 wrote:
twaconnie wrote:
Let's not forget Breeze what challenges will they face, getting started.


We probably can forget Breeze in this capacity and fare environment - they'd blow thru start-up cash too quickly. Start-ups don't commence operations with 24-36 months cash on hand.

Obviously Breeze will start later. However, it might be better to cancel the launch.

Lightsaber
 
joeblow10
Posts: 384
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:43 am

MrPeanut wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
Obviously we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out, but I suspect it’s actually the total opposite. The moment people are allowed to leave their homes and get back out there the demand for cheap getaways will pick up, and I would suspect much faster than the demand for expensive business travel given the current climate.


I applaud your enthusiasm, but with 9 million new claims for unemployment over the last 2 weeks, I suspect people might be rebuilding their personal finances for awhile before returning to leisure travel.


Yeah, I don’t think the average person realizes how big of a situation this is. This is not 9/11 or 2008 financial crisis. This is something on a completely different level. Airline networks will look nothing close to what they looked like last year or earlier this year. And with no vaccine on the horizon until mid next year, it will be at least one more year until traffic even begins to bottom out.

People need to think about what will happen when flu season kicks up again in the fall. More quarantines? I don’t know, but it will certainly make people (and definitely businesses) double guess traveling until a vaccine is found.

Until the industry bottoms out, it begs the question do we really need the number of airlines we have today? There is no demand to support 1 airline, let alone the 8 to 10 major airlines we have in the U.S. today.


I see two extremes in terms of scenarios for the coming months.

1. This initial wave peak passes over, and while COVID persists in the community, widespread testing, more distancing than usual, and surveillance keep the disease relatively in check and hospitals not overwhelmed. In this scenario - perhaps there are temperature checks at the airport - some demand for air travel recovers. By no means am I saying to the level it did before, but there will undoubtedly be stir craziness for travel going on for those who are able. Look at China’s internal tourism at the moment.

2. The uglier scenario: this initial peak is just the beginning, and the disease continues rampant spread for 12-18 months until we have a vaccine, especially gaining hold in underdeveloped counties where it is just getting started. The disease is only the beginning of our problems, as the economy will undoubtedly spiral into a deep depression. The collapse of airlines is going to be far from our biggest concern, even if we’re employed by them.

Reality is probably somewhere in between - but all I’m suggesting is that if (and a big if) things do gradually recover and stay relatively stable, there will be some demand for travel, and the cheapie airlines like NK and F9 may benefit most.

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