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afcjets
Posts: 3504
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:05 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
afcjets wrote:
If unemployment reaches 20 that wouldn't affect the other 80 percent. Businesses travel is likely to drop much more than 20 percent with the new virtual trend, even if no companies went out of business or downsized.

That's a pretty shallow view. Over 80% of households (working and not collecting a fixed income) have reported a significant drop in income. The numbers are startling -- nearly 1-in-3 rents failed to make their payment for the month (and many more didn't pay it in full), credit card companies are bracing for record defaults, etc. Don't be deceived by unemployment numbers ... many people who are working, have taken significant pay cuts or accepted a lower-paying position/job. It'll be a long while before we fully recover from this.

Meanwhile, there's no evidence of a full "virtual trend" in business. Business travel will continue to be essential to the needs of a business for multitude of reasons, and will recover much faster than that of families wishing to blow $10K on a Disney Cruise.


Yes there is. Over 45 states have stay at home in orders in place which means a significant number of businesses are set up for that now. Virtual employees can work from anywhere and will no longer be confined to weekend trips, holidays and vacation time and might travel more. Also, unlike business travel, demand for leisure travel is totally elastic and airfares and the price of oil have already dropped significantly.
 
afcjets
Posts: 3504
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:58 am

It appears Frontier is trying to raise cash by pushing their $9 fare club which has a $59 annual fee. I had never seen $9 fares actually available until now and the lowest regular fares seem to be higher than before. Not all fares are $9 but that's where they start. I was surprised NJ to MIA was only $11 which is over 1000 miles.
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 146
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:41 pm

afcjets wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
afcjets wrote:
If unemployment reaches 20 that wouldn't affect the other 80 percent. Businesses travel is likely to drop much more than 20 percent with the new virtual trend, even if no companies went out of business or downsized.

That's a pretty shallow view. Over 80% of households (working and not collecting a fixed income) have reported a significant drop in income. The numbers are startling -- nearly 1-in-3 rents failed to make their payment for the month (and many more didn't pay it in full), credit card companies are bracing for record defaults, etc. Don't be deceived by unemployment numbers ... many people who are working, have taken significant pay cuts or accepted a lower-paying position/job. It'll be a long while before we fully recover from this.

Meanwhile, there's no evidence of a full "virtual trend" in business. Business travel will continue to be essential to the needs of a business for multitude of reasons, and will recover much faster than that of families wishing to blow $10K on a Disney Cruise.


Yes there is. Over 45 states have stay at home in orders in place which means a significant number of businesses are set up for that now. Virtual employees can work from anywhere and will no longer be confined to weekend trips, holidays and vacation time and might travel more. Also, unlike business travel, demand for leisure travel is totally elastic and airfares and the price of oil have already dropped significantly.



I tend to agree. There will obviously still be business travel, but it may be reduced long term. Leisure travel will take a serious hit as well, but will return to normal levels long term. The economy is a complete wreck, and will take time to recover but keep in mind in regards to unemployment that a large amount of those unemployment claims are in industries that have been forced to close because of stay at home orders. Restaurants/bars/shops/etc will reopen as soon as they are able to and will need employees. Here in the states a lot of people will be making more on unemployment than they were at their jobs. $400 state plus $600 federal unemployment makes $1000 a week. A lot weren't making that while employed. If they are working again by August 1st when the federal unemployment stimulus runs out, they could have some extra money in the bank, especially because they aren't really able to spend it right now. It sounds a little crazy, but a number of my lower income friends have mentioned they will be making and saving more in the near future for this very reason.
This is obviously all contingent on when we are able to start opening up and getting on with life again.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:54 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
afcjets wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
That's a pretty shallow view. Over 80% of households (working and not collecting a fixed income) have reported a significant drop in income. The numbers are startling -- nearly 1-in-3 rents failed to make their payment for the month (and many more didn't pay it in full), credit card companies are bracing for record defaults, etc. Don't be deceived by unemployment numbers ... many people who are working, have taken significant pay cuts or accepted a lower-paying position/job. It'll be a long while before we fully recover from this.

Meanwhile, there's no evidence of a full "virtual trend" in business. Business travel will continue to be essential to the needs of a business for multitude of reasons, and will recover much faster than that of families wishing to blow $10K on a Disney Cruise.


Yes there is. Over 45 states have stay at home in orders in place which means a significant number of businesses are set up for that now. Virtual employees can work from anywhere and will no longer be confined to weekend trips, holidays and vacation time and might travel more. Also, unlike business travel, demand for leisure travel is totally elastic and airfares and the price of oil have already dropped significantly.



I tend to agree. There will obviously still be business travel, but it may be reduced long term. Leisure travel will take a serious hit as well, but will return to normal levels long term. The economy is a complete wreck, and will take time to recover but keep in mind in regards to unemployment that a large amount of those unemployment claims are in industries that have been forced to close because of stay at home orders. Restaurants/bars/shops/etc will reopen as soon as they are able to and will need employees. Here in the states a lot of people will be making more on unemployment than they were at their jobs. $400 state plus $600 federal unemployment makes $1000 a week. A lot weren't making that while employed. If they are working again by August 1st when the federal unemployment stimulus runs out, they could have some extra money in the bank, especially because they aren't really able to spend it right now. It sounds a little crazy, but a number of my lower income friends have mentioned they will be making and saving more in the near future for this very reason.
This is obviously all contingent on when we are able to start opening up and getting on with life again.


This is "if" business is allowed to open by the EOM. Businesses that are suffering will start to fire professional staff, even those that can work at home. You don't need all that staff is your business drops by 70%+. Most of these people make more than $52K a year. Not to mention few states have unemployment compensation of $400. In Florida it's $152 a week. And given what happened in last downturn I don't see government expanding or lengthening benefits. Those bars, restaurants, stores, etc. aren't going to re-open if they are out of business. And few business owners are going to take out loans to pay staff if they don't know when they can re-open doors.
 
xdlx
Posts: 964
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 12:29 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:01 pm

n7371f wrote:
Breeze is going forward. First E95 is about to come out of MTC in Brazil in their specs and flown to US to begin proving flights. Breeze will operate as a charter airline initially, which by the way was part of a back-up plan should the economy go into the shitter. Complete hiring freeze and everything has to go across David's desk for spend approval. But it's full aboard to earning their own certificate, getting the first plane and then operating on the periphery until economy comes around enough to begin scheduled service.

And no one knows what F9's financials actually look like - since Bill Franke owns them. Will have to wait for DOT41 docs for that...many months after.

lightsaber wrote:
Is there any indication if F9's or NK's cash burn?

MIflyer12 wrote:

We probably can forget Breeze in this capacity and fare environment - they'd blow thru start-up cash too quickly. Start-ups don't commence operations with 24-36 months cash on hand.

Obviously Breeze will start later. However, it might be better to cancel the launch.

Lightsaber


I certainly agree, IF anything; Neelman can find room to renegotiate price for the E95 as the order ebook will certainly feel the pinch on this crisis.
He can run a small efficient program to earn certification, and be ready when traffic returns.
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 146
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:22 am

Frontier files request for exemption from service obligation language in CARES act to drop 36 airports temporarily.
I think Spirit requested 26.

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0037-0055
 
joeblow10
Posts: 421
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 1:09 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
Frontier files request for exemption from service obligation language in CARES act to drop 36 airports temporarily.
I think Spirit requested 26.

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0037-0055


It’s rather funny to read the blunt language in this filing compared to Spirit’s, guess you have to admire them for trying.

On one hand - agree with Frontier, there isn’t going to be that large a public benefit from continuing to serve these points with very low load factors.

However - as legacies appear to be retreating on lowering prices in the past week, and Frontier serves a number of smaller communities with few alternatives, there may still be some albeit small benefit of them serving these cities. I know it isn’t free, but does flying 1x a week to most these cities really hurt them that badly compared to what they’d be getting in return?
 
ual777
Posts: 1642
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:18 am

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:22 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
Frontier files request for exemption from service obligation language in CARES act to drop 36 airports temporarily.
I think Spirit requested 26.

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0037-0055


It’s rather funny to read the blunt language in this filing compared to Spirit’s, guess you have to admire them for trying.

On one hand - agree with Frontier, there isn’t going to be that large a public benefit from continuing to serve these points with very low load factors.

However - as legacies appear to be retreating on lowering prices in the past week, and Frontier serves a number of smaller communities with few alternatives, there may still be some albeit small benefit of them serving these cities. I know it isn’t free, but does flying 1x a week to most these cities really hurt them that badly compared to what they’d be getting in return?


Isn't the whole point of the grant to support an essential industry? Frontier is basically arguing that they are not essential....
It is always darkest before the sun comes up.
 
TwinStarRocket
Posts: 15
Joined: Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:24 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:57 am

RWA380 wrote:
pwm2txlhopper wrote:
RWA380 wrote:

Not at $78 r/t PDX-MSP. I just got an email from one of the online sites. Another had F9 to SFO & LAX for under !00.00 r/t via DEN.


I just met a a guy at my work who flew on one of the Florida to PWM routes for $15 the other day.


That sounds fair for F9. About what we paid on NK for a PDX-DFW.


What day did you fly?
 
TwinStarRocket
Posts: 15
Joined: Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:24 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:05 am

tphuang wrote:
I'm going through NK pilot forum and they still haven't suspended their new hire classes. What are these geniuses thinking? That's a sure way to burn cash.



Our new hires are paid a whopping $1750 a month for the first 90 and with no benefits. They're a rounding error while we figure out which way is up. I'm a bit proud that we honored the CJO's that were given. I'm sure all these guys/gals had resigned from somewhere. Now they have a seniority number to claim.
 
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RWA380
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:15 am

TwinStarRocket wrote:
RWA380 wrote:
pwm2txlhopper wrote:

I just met a a guy at my work who flew on one of the Florida to PWM routes for $15 the other day.


That sounds fair for F9. About what we paid on NK for a PDX-DFW.


What day did you fly?


PDX-DFW NK 458 *09-11-12* 12:40a-6:40a / DFW-PDX NK 875 *09-12-12* 11:00p-12:50a. The only days to get the intro fare each way & my one & only experience flying NK.
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
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n7371f
Posts: 1827
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:30 am

Good catch on legacies and their pricing going sky high this past week. Pricing from DL, AA, UA is like they're running 95% load factors.

joeblow10 wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
Frontier files request for exemption from service obligation language in CARES act to drop 36 airports temporarily.
I think Spirit requested 26.

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0037-0055


It’s rather funny to read the blunt language in this filing compared to Spirit’s, guess you have to admire them for trying.

On one hand - agree with Frontier, there isn’t going to be that large a public benefit from continuing to serve these points with very low load factors.

However - as legacies appear to be retreating on lowering prices in the past week, and Frontier serves a number of smaller communities with few alternatives, there may still be some albeit small benefit of them serving these cities. I know it isn’t free, but does flying 1x a week to most these cities really hurt them that badly compared to what they’d be getting in return?
 
dstblj52
Posts: 459
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:23 am

n7371f wrote:
Good catch on legacies and their pricing going sky high this past week. Pricing from DL, AA, UA is like they're running 95% load factors.

joeblow10 wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
Frontier files request for exemption from service obligation language in CARES act to drop 36 airports temporarily.
I think Spirit requested 26.

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0037-0055


It’s rather funny to read the blunt language in this filing compared to Spirit’s, guess you have to admire them for trying.

On one hand - agree with Frontier, there isn’t going to be that large a public benefit from continuing to serve these points with very low load factors.

However - as legacies appear to be retreating on lowering prices in the past week, and Frontier serves a number of smaller communities with few alternatives, there may still be some albeit small benefit of them serving these cities. I know it isn’t free, but does flying 1x a week to most these cities really hurt them that badly compared to what they’d be getting in return?

I think the legacies have discovered that pricing isn't filling seats because no one who isn't an essential business traveler is flying so you might as well charge all you can to essential business travelers cause for most of them the company is paying so they don't individually care what the ticket costs.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 421
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:40 pm

dstblj52 wrote:
n7371f wrote:
Good catch on legacies and their pricing going sky high this past week. Pricing from DL, AA, UA is like they're running 95% load factors.

joeblow10 wrote:

It’s rather funny to read the blunt language in this filing compared to Spirit’s, guess you have to admire them for trying.

On one hand - agree with Frontier, there isn’t going to be that large a public benefit from continuing to serve these points with very low load factors.

However - as legacies appear to be retreating on lowering prices in the past week, and Frontier serves a number of smaller communities with few alternatives, there may still be some albeit small benefit of them serving these cities. I know it isn’t free, but does flying 1x a week to most these cities really hurt them that badly compared to what they’d be getting in return?

I think the legacies have discovered that pricing isn't filling seats because no one who isn't an essential business traveler is flying so you might as well charge all you can to essential business travelers cause for most of them the company is paying so they don't individually care what the ticket costs.


The interesting part to me is not that they are charging more close in (i.e. 2-4 weeks out), but that they also raised prices into summer. On one hand, it makes total sense, if the virus has started to die out by late June or July, as there could be a lot of pent up demand.

But if the virus doesn’t die out, and given the economic fallout, raising prices across the board seems to be somewhat counterintuitive. It’d be different if we were talking the one flight or the one market seeing demand in summer, but this appeared to be an across the board increase that the big guys all adopted one after another over 2-3 days.
 
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tb727
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:48 pm

TwinStarRocket wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I'm going through NK pilot forum and they still haven't suspended their new hire classes. What are these geniuses thinking? That's a sure way to burn cash.



Our new hires are paid a whopping $1750 a month for the first 90 and with no benefits. They're a rounding error while we figure out which way is up. I'm a bit proud that we honored the CJO's that were given. I'm sure all these guys/gals had resigned from somewhere. Now they have a seniority number to claim.


I think it's an awful situation to be in, but I think I'd rather be a new hire at NK than one at DL right now. I can't even imagine what's going through the minds of anyone that recently gave up a seniority number to go to the bottom at another airline anywhere right now with all the uncertainties. I almost get sick thinking of it. I know of guys that just left NK for DL, I feel really bad. They are good dudes that would have upgraded this year but I think and hope they will be ok in the long run. This is gonna be a rough year but I hope it all rebounds for everyone.
Too lazy to work, too scared to steal!
 
freakyrat
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:24 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
I had to drive out to the FedEx location at MCO today & noticed that F9 had parked 5 A320's in the remote stand normally used by long-haul airlines. Here's their fleet status:

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Frontier-Airlines

It looks like NK is not pulling their fleet down substantially, which may hurt them badly if they continue with the near-empty flights.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Spirit-Airlines


NK has a whole slew of their arcraft parked at AFW. Fort Worth Alliance.
 
toltommy
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:36 pm

HomeSlice wrote:
I'm in Las Vegas. Spirit has around 15 planes parked in a couple different locations at LAS, almost all of them in yellow trim. Frontier had 7 or 8 planes parked on the cargo ramp last time I drove by there.


A friend of mine who works for Kalitta sent me a photo this morning of at least 10 NK aircraft parked at YIP as well.
A300/A310/A319/A320/A321/A332/A333 / 707/712/727/732/733/734/735/738/739/752/753
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FLALEFTY
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:22 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
Frontier files request for exemption from service obligation language in CARES act to drop 36 airports temporarily.
I think Spirit requested 26.

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0037-0055


Here's a Flight Global article that discusses Spirit's and JetBlue's request to drop services. Interesting to read that JetBlue might be burning a $9M per day loss if their flight schedule remains the same. Spirit just said, "We are in a survival mode..."

https://www.flightglobal.com/networks/j ... 25.article
 
Woodreau
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:54 pm

freakyrat wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
I had to drive out to the FedEx location at MCO today & noticed that F9 had parked 5 A320's in the remote stand normally used by long-haul airlines. Here's their fleet status:

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Frontier-Airlines

It looks like NK is not pulling their fleet down substantially, which may hurt them badly if they continue with the near-empty flights.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Spirit-Airlines


NK has a whole slew of their arcraft parked at AFW. Fort Worth Alliance.



toltommy wrote:
HomeSlice wrote:
I'm in Las Vegas. Spirit has around 15 planes parked in a couple different locations at LAS, almost all of them in yellow trim. Frontier had 7 or 8 planes parked on the cargo ramp last time I drove by there.


A friend of mine who works for Kalitta sent me a photo this morning of at least 10 NK aircraft parked at YIP as well.


Just from tailnumber tracking this is where their planes are parked
ACY 23
AFW 14
BQN 2
DFW 9
DTW 15
FLL 7
IAH 3
LAS 9
LBE 9
LCQ 9
MCO 14
MYR 1
SBD 1
TPA 1
YIP 10
Bonus animus sit, ab experientia. Quod salvatum fuerit de malis usu venit judicium.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:07 pm

Woodreau wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
I had to drive out to the FedEx location at MCO today & noticed that F9 had parked 5 A320's in the remote stand normally used by long-haul airlines. Here's their fleet status:

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Frontier-Airlines

It looks like NK is not pulling their fleet down substantially, which may hurt them badly if they continue with the near-empty flights.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Spirit-Airlines


NK has a whole slew of their arcraft parked at AFW. Fort Worth Alliance.



toltommy wrote:
HomeSlice wrote:
I'm in Las Vegas. Spirit has around 15 planes parked in a couple different locations at LAS, almost all of them in yellow trim. Frontier had 7 or 8 planes parked on the cargo ramp last time I drove by there.


A friend of mine who works for Kalitta sent me a photo this morning of at least 10 NK aircraft parked at YIP as well.


Just from tailnumber tracking this is where their planes are parked
ACY 23
AFW 14
BQN 2
DFW 9
DTW 15
FLL 7
IAH 3
LAS 9
LBE 9
LCQ 9
MCO 14
MYR 1
SBD 1
TPA 1
YIP 10



Planespotters.net reports 39 of their A319/320/321 fleet are active and 114 are stored. However, Planespotters is struggling to keep up with all of the fleet changes and are usually a day, or two behind.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Spirit-Airlines
 
dopplerd
Posts: 105
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:28 pm

I wonder if we might see a temporary return of some milk run flights. One day a week for a flight from ORD to FLL stopping in IND, for instance, would seem to be feasible.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 157
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:25 pm

Given the amount of city suspensions that Spirit and Frontier applied for today, they might be doing worse than other airlines.
 
CALMSP
Posts: 3226
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:01 pm

ual777 wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
Frontier files request for exemption from service obligation language in CARES act to drop 36 airports temporarily.
I think Spirit requested 26.

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0037-0055


It’s rather funny to read the blunt language in this filing compared to Spirit’s, guess you have to admire them for trying.

On one hand - agree with Frontier, there isn’t going to be that large a public benefit from continuing to serve these points with very low load factors.

However - as legacies appear to be retreating on lowering prices in the past week, and Frontier serves a number of smaller communities with few alternatives, there may still be some albeit small benefit of them serving these cities. I know it isn’t free, but does flying 1x a week to most these cities really hurt them that badly compared to what they’d be getting in return?


Isn't the whole point of the grant to support an essential industry? Frontier is basically arguing that they are not essential....


I'd agree with them, they are not essential.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:48 pm

The US4 are going to have business travelers chomping at the bit to get back in the air. They tend to be addicted to the lifestyle. Now there may be a small number that do not want to fly, particularly if they have underlying health issues, and maybe even more may have employers that will still restrict flying. Although flying that generates revenues is going to come back quickly.

OTH the ULCCs will not have that type of flyer.
 
CALMSP
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:34 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
The US4 are going to have business travelers chomping at the bit to get back in the air. They tend to be addicted to the lifestyle. Now there may be a small number that do not want to fly, particularly if they have underlying health issues, and maybe even more may have employers that will still restrict flying. Although flying that generates revenues is going to come back quickly.

OTH the ULCCs will not have that type of flyer.


the second part of your statement is what's going to be the limitation. I don't see companies jumping at the immediate ability to start sending their employees out again.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5211
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:42 pm

It will be a long time before most companies will allow anything but the most essential international travel again. And as long as economy is weak and the virus is all around, domestic business travel will be significantly curtailed too.

Also, the less you fly these days the better. The more you fly, the more money you burn. NK/F9 has cut 90 to 95% of their flights to save money. Airlines should fly basically fly just a little bit more than required under the CARES grant agreements. I don't know why legacies are still flying this much and so worried about their market share when they will have trouble even making it to next year. It's craziness.
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 146
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Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:56 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
The US4 are going to have business travelers chomping at the bit to get back in the air. They tend to be addicted to the lifestyle. Now there may be a small number that do not want to fly, particularly if they have underlying health issues, and maybe even more may have employers that will still restrict flying. Although flying that generates revenues is going to come back quickly.

OTH the ULCCs will not have that type of flyer.


Curious why you think that way? The pandemic/health aspects impacts both business and leisure travelers.
The economy seems like it will be the more restrictive issue long term.
Going back to the previous recession, LCC/ULCC thrived from 2007-2012. Legacies shrank.
9/11 was the exact same scenario, as well.

Here is the increase/decrease during that time period after the great recession from 2007-2012. The difference is incredibly large.

G4 +130%
NK +49
B6 +23
F9 +3
WN +2
SY -7
AA -14
UA -15
AS -15
US -16
FL -16
DL -18

Sourced from DOT review on aviation industry performance...
https://www.oig.dot.gov/sites/default/f ... -24-12.pdf


If we want to compare to 9/11, LCCs grew their market share from 12% in 2001 to 28% in 2006. There's a lot of good information in the report below from the Business Travel Coalition, and the report was authored and published by some of the industry's leading experts.

http://businesstravelcoalition.com/statements/195.html

Just wondering why we're expecting this economic downturn to be the exact opposite?
I think B6/NK/F9/WN/AS and maybe G4 do better comparatively and might be able to gain some market share in the next 5 years.
 
Flflyer83
Posts: 69
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:40 pm

F9 operations remaining?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:58 pm

According to FlightRadar24, the only F9 flights in the air on Tuesday, 4/14 at 12:50pm are headed to Roswell... For the middle of the day, even with minimal operations, it would seem at least one passenger flight would be in operation...

FFT 9201 — TPA - ROW
FFT 9202 — TPA - ROW
FFT 9203 — TPA - ROW
FFT 9204 — TPA - ROW
FFT 9205 — TPA - ROW
FFT 9206 — TPA - ROW
FFT 9207 — TPA - ROW
FFT 9208 — MCO - ROW
FFT 9210 — TPA - ROW
FFT 9212 — DEN - ROW
FFT 9213 — DEN - ROW
FFT 9217 — DEN - ROW
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:16 pm

Because in a severe economic downturn few are going to travel either because they are hopelessly unemployed or feel threatened that they may become so. It's just not the $59 ow fare to MCO that costs money for a family; it's lodging, food, transportation, etc.

The ULCC business model really didn't take off until the worst of the 2008/2009 recession had abated. I wouldn't necessarily consider B6 or WN part of the ULCC business model. Both go after corporate contracts and business travelers.

If NK/G4/F9 have very little corporate travel (yes they might have traditionally pulled in small business owners) I have no idea where people think they'd get enough paxs to fill up their many a/c in a 20%+ unemployed economy. And I don't see big corporations turning away from the legacies to ULCC.
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 146
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:42 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Because in a severe economic downturn few are going to travel either because they are hopelessly unemployed or feel threatened that they may become so. It's just not the $59 ow fare to MCO that costs money for a family; it's lodging, food, transportation, etc.

The ULCC business model really didn't take off until the worst of the 2008/2009 recession had abated. I wouldn't necessarily consider B6 or WN part of the ULCC business model. Both go after corporate contracts and business travelers.

If NK/G4/F9 have very little corporate travel (yes they might have traditionally pulled in small business owners) I have no idea where people think they'd get enough paxs to fill up their many a/c in a 20%+ unemployed economy. And I don't see big corporations turning away from the legacies to ULCC.


B6 and WN are certainly not ULCC, but they were able to grow while the legacies shrank after the great recession so I included them. Their model will likely fare better than legacies during the upcoming economic crisis.

Regardless of when their business model took off, they grew and legacies shrank. Not just a 1 off event, as it was the same for 9/11.
20% unemployment hurts everyone. Once service industries and retail open back up, those numbers will improve. Until then, no one is really doing much traveling to begin with.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:55 pm

Looks like Spirit and Sun Country are not participating in the CARES payroll grant program. Not sure where they are going to get the money from.
 
tzadik
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:08 am

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:29 pm

tphuang wrote:
Looks like Spirit and Sun Country are not participating in the CARES payroll grant program. Not sure where they are going to get the money from.


Negotiating for a better deal with CARES it would appear. No need for more ghost flights.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 421
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:22 am

tphuang wrote:
Looks like Spirit and Sun Country are not participating in the CARES payroll grant program. Not sure where they are going to get the money from.


Appears SY submitted its requests for exemption today. Probably the most laughable application yet: requesting exemption from all but 5 of its destinations it would be required to serve, and it requests to serve all of those 5 once a week.

I get the position of these ULCC carriers, but seriously, does flying to a city 1x a week, or 3-5x a week at the few stations SY served daily, really hurt them compared to the aid they are getting? At least F9 and NK tried to look like they were still trying to serve some of their network in their applications...
 
santi319
Posts: 1021
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:10 am

joeblow10 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Looks like Spirit and Sun Country are not participating in the CARES payroll grant program. Not sure where they are going to get the money from.


Appears SY submitted its requests for exemption today. Probably the most laughable application yet: requesting exemption from all but 5 of its destinations it would be required to serve, and it requests to serve all of those 5 once a week.

I get the position of these ULCC carriers, but seriously, does flying to a city 1x a week, or 3-5x a week at the few stations SY served daily, really hurt them compared to the aid they are getting? At least F9 and NK tried to look like they were still trying to serve some of their network in their applications...


Well its that or no SY, and I hope they get approved. Would hate to see more airlines go.
 
F9Animal
Posts: 4424
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:13 am

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:05 am

santi319 wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Looks like Spirit and Sun Country are not participating in the CARES payroll grant program. Not sure where they are going to get the money from.


Appears SY submitted its requests for exemption today. Probably the most laughable application yet: requesting exemption from all but 5 of its destinations it would be required to serve, and it requests to serve all of those 5 once a week.

I get the position of these ULCC carriers, but seriously, does flying to a city 1x a week, or 3-5x a week at the few stations SY served daily, really hurt them compared to the aid they are getting? At least F9 and NK tried to look like they were still trying to serve some of their network in their applications...


Well its that or no SY, and I hope they get approved. Would hate to see more airlines go.


Laughable? Wouldn't it be more appropriate to view it as sad? Every single airline right now is dying. Some faster than others. At this point, SY is doing anything it can to survive. I'm sure F9, NK, and SY would prefer to just park everything and wait for the storm to pass. Nobody is flying, and the costs are still there during this crushing downturn.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4758
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:03 am

Miamiairport wrote:
The US4 are going to have business travelers chomping at the bit to get back in the air. They tend to be addicted to the lifestyle. Now there may be a small number that do not want to fly, particularly if they have underlying health issues, and maybe even more may have employers that will still restrict flying. Although flying that generates revenues is going to come back quickly.

OTH the ULCCs will not have that type of flyer.


Companies are very worried to put employees back in the air until there is a vaccine. There will not be a "rush" companies are too worried about their own liability and image of putting people on the road.

The airlines know it's going to be a while which is they are parking and retiring planes. They all plan to come back smaller.

The US4 I think will have a harder time than the ULCCs . Leisure travel will come back in some form before business travel and long haul is dead until there is a vaccine.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:40 am

santi319 wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Looks like Spirit and Sun Country are not participating in the CARES payroll grant program. Not sure where they are going to get the money from.


Appears SY submitted its requests for exemption today. Probably the most laughable application yet: requesting exemption from all but 5 of its destinations it would be required to serve, and it requests to serve all of those 5 once a week.

I get the position of these ULCC carriers, but seriously, does flying to a city 1x a week, or 3-5x a week at the few stations SY served daily, really hurt them compared to the aid they are getting? At least F9 and NK tried to look like they were still trying to serve some of their network in their applications...


Well its that or no SY, and I hope they get approved. Would hate to see more airlines go.

They are stopping passenger flights in order to do more flying for Amazon that they previously had already signed up.

And we will see what happens to ha and nk. At least ha has the excuse of quarantine for all their exemptions. Nk with a regular schedule should not get more exemptions than frontier or allegiant.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 421
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:51 pm

F9Animal wrote:
santi319 wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:

Appears SY submitted its requests for exemption today. Probably the most laughable application yet: requesting exemption from all but 5 of its destinations it would be required to serve, and it requests to serve all of those 5 once a week.

I get the position of these ULCC carriers, but seriously, does flying to a city 1x a week, or 3-5x a week at the few stations SY served daily, really hurt them compared to the aid they are getting? At least F9 and NK tried to look like they were still trying to serve some of their network in their applications...


Well its that or no SY, and I hope they get approved. Would hate to see more airlines go.


Laughable? Wouldn't it be more appropriate to view it as sad? Every single airline right now is dying. Some faster than others. At this point, SY is doing anything it can to survive. I'm sure F9, NK, and SY would prefer to just park everything and wait for the storm to pass. Nobody is flying, and the costs are still there during this crushing downturn.


F9 and SY have private equity behind them. If things get really bad, either the ownership will pony up, or it won’t. Indigo has shown themselves to be fairly commital to Frontier and the airline industry and has waited to take F9 public for some time, I’m not sure you can say the same for Apollo.

If these ULCC airlines get say a $300-500 million cash infusion, and are required to operate routes 1-3x a week, I really don’t feel that’s unreasonable. That should keep them afloat for quite some time given their costs compared to others. What is unreasonable is asking to suspend 90% of your cities when all the other carriers are having to play by the same rules.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2256
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:14 pm

Grabbing the popcorn! Can't wait to see how the Treasury Dept. reacts to such an outlier list of 'exceptions' for service compared to everyone else. I just don't see SY surviving this which of course would be sad...but they've been on the short list for a long time. I have to wonder how many 'long time' staff are even remaining as the writing has been on more than one wall many times.
 
tzadik
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:08 am

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:51 pm

tphuang wrote:
And we will see what happens to ha and nk. At least ha has the excuse of quarantine for all their exemptions. Nk with a regular schedule should not get more exemptions than frontier or allegiant.


It's not about whats fair, it's about what you can negotiate and it would appear as if NK leadership is trying to get a better deal for their company. I see nothing wrong with that. Could it backfire, yes. But I would think the risk of further negotiation is low.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:33 pm

tzadik wrote:
tphuang wrote:
And we will see what happens to ha and nk. At least ha has the excuse of quarantine for all their exemptions. Nk with a regular schedule should not get more exemptions than frontier or allegiant.


It's not about whats fair, it's about what you can negotiate and it would appear as if NK leadership is trying to get a better deal for their company. I see nothing wrong with that. Could it backfire, yes. But I would think the risk of further negotiation is low.


or they can just decide to not take it. The grants look a lot less attractive when 30% is loan. If they decide they are going to furlough anyways and the 70% grant is not nearly enough to pay for the pilots they need to keep on the payroll for 6 months and the additional flying they have to do, then they can just decide to not participate in it.

As I said, this deal is structured in a way that benefits those whose payroll costs are the largest proportion of the overall costs and who does high frequency flights. WN could potentially benefit from this more than anyone else. And it's easy to see ULCCs get the least benefits from this.

Let's say NK sees that 20% of payroll needs to be furloughed by Oct 1. If they don't take this, they might furlough 25% of payroll in April.

Let's do some math here and I'm sure Ted is looking into this the same way. you get 76% of your previous years total payroll for Q2/Q3 with 70% of that as grant money. Let's say your payroll goes up 5 to 10% due to rapid expansion (NK was planning 20+% growth this year). It will be 70% of your expected payroll for this year. Which means you get less than 50% of your payroll paid with grant money. So you save 50% of your original projected payroll.

Now let's say they decided to furlough 25% of payroll in April, then you save 25% of your original projected payroll. And since you are not artificially constrained by this Oct 1 deadline, you are more flexible in recalling furloughed employee down the road.

So the former is better, right? Well, that's where the additional flying factors in. Instead of flying 10% of your capacity, you might now have to fly 20 to 25% your capacity. And for NK, the cost of fuel alone is more than its payroll (not the case with non-ULCCs). And then you have landing fees, maintenance and repairs. Other costs associated with more flhing. Let's just say with cheaper fuel, the total cost of all this - earning revenue from the odd paying passengers is about the same as the original project payroll. So flying 10% would have reduced your bills here by 90%. Flying 25% would only reduce your bill here by 75%. So your cost just went up by another 15% of your original projected payroll.

So basically this saves you around 10% of original projected payroll That is still good amount of money, but a CEO may not feel like that gives NK the flexibility they need.
 
User avatar
tb727
Posts: 2219
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2005 1:40 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:35 pm

tzadik wrote:
tphuang wrote:
And we will see what happens to ha and nk. At least ha has the excuse of quarantine for all their exemptions. Nk with a regular schedule should not get more exemptions than frontier or allegiant.


It's not about whats fair, it's about what you can negotiate and it would appear as if NK leadership is trying to get a better deal for their company. I see nothing wrong with that. Could it backfire, yes. But I would think the risk of further negotiation is low.


I agree, it's a big gamble if it doesn't work but you have to try and get better terms. The Treasury Dept can't just throw a blanket set of rules to follow at a company that is a fraction the size of the big 4 and expect the same results. Every single airline should have put in for certain exemptions that fit their model and service. It's a big deal and a lot of money.
Too lazy to work, too scared to steal!
 
TwinStarRocket
Posts: 15
Joined: Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:24 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:03 pm

RWA380 wrote:
TwinStarRocket wrote:
RWA380 wrote:

That sounds fair for F9. About what we paid on NK for a PDX-DFW.


What day did you fly?


PDX-DFW NK 458 *09-11-12* 12:40a-6:40a / DFW-PDX NK 875 *09-12-12* 11:00p-12:50a. The only days to get the intro fare each way & my one & only experience flying NK.


Oh ok. I operated that turn on April 8-9, 2020. Only it's numbered 1971 DFW-PDX and 1972 PDX-DFW now but that may change in May.
 
tzadik
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:08 am

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:13 pm

tphuang wrote:
tzadik wrote:
tphuang wrote:
And we will see what happens to ha and nk. At least ha has the excuse of quarantine for all their exemptions. Nk with a regular schedule should not get more exemptions than frontier or allegiant.


It's not about whats fair, it's about what you can negotiate and it would appear as if NK leadership is trying to get a better deal for their company. I see nothing wrong with that. Could it backfire, yes. But I would think the risk of further negotiation is low.


or they can just decide to not take it. The grants look a lot less attractive when 30% is loan. If they decide they are going to furlough anyways and the 70% grant is not nearly enough to pay for the pilots they need to keep on the payroll for 6 months and the additional flying they have to do, then they can just decide to not participate in it.

As I said, this deal is structured in a way that benefits those whose payroll costs are the largest proportion of the overall costs and who does high frequency flights. WN could potentially benefit from this more than anyone else. And it's easy to see ULCCs get the least benefits from this.

Let's say NK sees that 20% of payroll needs to be furloughed by Oct 1. If they don't take this, they might furlough 25% of payroll in April.

Let's do some math here and I'm sure Ted is looking into this the same way. you get 76% of your previous years total payroll for Q2/Q3 with 70% of that as grant money. Let's say your payroll goes up 5 to 10% due to rapid expansion (NK was planning 20+% growth this year). It will be 70% of your expected payroll for this year. Which means you get less than 50% of your payroll paid with grant money. So you save 50% of your original projected payroll.

Now let's say they decided to furlough 25% of payroll in April, then you save 25% of your original projected payroll. And since you are not artificially constrained by this Oct 1 deadline, you are more flexible in recalling furloughed employee down the road.

So the former is better, right? Well, that's where the additional flying factors in. Instead of flying 10% of your capacity, you might now have to fly 20 to 25% your capacity. And for NK, the cost of fuel alone is more than its payroll (not the case with non-ULCCs). And then you have landing fees, maintenance and repairs. Other costs associated with more flhing. Let's just say with cheaper fuel, the total cost of all this - earning revenue from the odd paying passengers is about the same as the original project payroll. So flying 10% would have reduced your bills here by 90%. Flying 25% would only reduce your bill here by 75%. So your cost just went up by another 15% of your original projected payroll.

So basically this saves you around 10% of original projected payroll That is still good amount of money, but a CEO may not feel like that gives NK the flexibility they need.


Extremely interesting analysis, clearly you're not new at this. We'll see how this plays out. Clearly Ted is working on something but has said multiple times in the last few days that a deal with the treasury is imminent.
 
TwinStarRocket
Posts: 15
Joined: Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:24 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:17 pm

dopplerd wrote:
I wonder if we might see a temporary return of some milk run flights. One day a week for a flight from ORD to FLL stopping in IND, for instance, would seem to be feasible.


The May bid packet flying is a substantial increase over April and returns service to all the cities that lost such in April.
 
dopplerd
Posts: 105
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:30 pm

Re: How is Frontier and Spirit doing?

Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:18 pm

The ULCC should form a temporary alliance and code share until the shutdown passes. I've not read the details of the bailout but maybe this would be a way to serve these smaller markets, satisfy treasury, and minimize ghost flights.

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