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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:52 pm

enzo011 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
However, it would not surprise me if Airbus is having discussions to end A330NEO production. The first step would be to contact the suppliers of these long lead time items to finish producing the current parts but for them to not start producing new parts. The second step would be to contact airlines and offer to change their order to A350's at a very good price.

Once the majority of the order book has shifted to the A350 then the remaining A330NEO orders will get fulfilled at the low production rate.



Do you think Boeing is thinking of doing the same for the 777X?

The A330NEO fate is in the hands of a few airlines. The largest backlog is Air Asia with 2 of 78 delivered, but accepting no more.

Delta at 5 of 35, accepting no more at this time.
Then we have Guardia, Cebu Pacific, and Virgin Atlantic.

I count 20 of 82 leased aircraft placed.

Right now the viability of the economy of scale is dependent on AirAsiaX and Delta not scaling back, so the program has risk.

The 777x is dependent on the ME3, but due to orders from LH, BA, CX, ANS, and SQ, has a better foundation for MRO work even though sales volumes are similar, but due to leasing companies, ahead for the A330NEO.

Leasing companies developed a business model of speculatively buying slots and trying to sell. I would expect CIT, ALC, Avolon, BOC, and GECAS to have force majeure clauses that have triggered.

If Delta and thus Virgin Atlantic stick it out, I expect leasing companies to stick it out and eventually place aircraft.

Leeham isn't predicting a recovery until 2022 or 2023. That really hurts the A330NEO.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/04/06/ponti ... days-take/

For the 777, it means life support on freighters until then. At this time, the logical thing for both is trickle production.


Mentioning Boeing, that link notes MAX deliveries have slid so much hundreds could be cancelled. I expect that to happen unless something is negotiated.

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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:06 pm

lhrnue wrote:
This must mean that many airlines have agreed to deferred delivery dates already.


Agreed? They are the ones that are begging for it. 80% of the world's aircraft are not flying atm.
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:29 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The A330NEO fate is in the hands of a few airlines.

The largest backlog is Air Asia with 2 of 78 delivered, but accepting no more.

Delta at 5 of 35, accepting no more at this time.

Then we have Guardia, Cebu Pacific, and Virgin Atlantic.

I count 20 of 82 leased aircraft placed.

Right now the viability of the economy of scale is dependent on AirAsiaX and Delta not scaling back, so the program has risk.

We have a whole thread on VS's problems. They asked for a government loan but they have insufficient assets to secure such a loan and the government review of their business leaves them concerned if VS could ever pay back such a loan. They are on very shaky ground right now.

I think 2/month really is a trickle rate to consume long lead parts already in the pipeline. It will be very touch and go for A330neo going forward.

It's a shame, I've been a fan of the program going back to the days when we debated if there would be an A330neo or an A380neo, and if it will have a tweaked T1000 or would be waiting for Advance or even UltraFan.

I think it will survive COVID19 but it'll be a real challenge. I think for instance DL will just retire off 767s and use A339s in their place, but it'll happen at a pretty gradual rate as the industry rebounds.
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:37 pm

I can see the 330neo getting more orders in a few years. The Chinese airlines and also for instance Cathay Dragon, Thai Airways, THY, Qantas, Air Canada have tons of 330ceo's and might find the 787-9 and A350 too big and expensive to replace them with. A production rate of 2 per month is perfectly fine, they made some profit with the 300 before building 2 a month, I think they will have a positive cash flow until demand picks up in a few years. They are much easier to be made in a small corner in a Toulouse hall, compared to the A380 which needed a whole logistics system with special ships and road transports.
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trex8
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:04 pm

Looking at graph at https://www.icf.com/insights/transporta ... t-analysis
A330 total production +/- 1-2 as graph not that easy to read exact numbers
1995. 28
1996. 7
1997. 17
1998. 22
1999. 45
2000. 41
2001. 36
2002. 41
2003. 30
2005. 58
2010. 78
2015. 110
2018. 37

Trickling at 2/month for next year or two , they've been there done that. It certainly isn't the cash printing days of the mid last decade but I suspect they wont be loosing their pants at 2/month either.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:16 pm

lightsaber wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
However, it would not surprise me if Airbus is having discussions to end A330NEO production. The first step would be to contact the suppliers of these long lead time items to finish producing the current parts but for them to not start producing new parts. The second step would be to contact airlines and offer to change their order to A350's at a very good price.

Once the majority of the order book has shifted to the A350 then the remaining A330NEO orders will get fulfilled at the low production rate.



Do you think Boeing is thinking of doing the same for the 777X?

The A330NEO fate is in the hands of a few airlines. The largest backlog is Air Asia with 2 of 78 delivered, but accepting no more.

Delta at 5 of 35, accepting no more at this time.
Then we have Guardia, Cebu Pacific, and Virgin Atlantic.

I count 20 of 82 leased aircraft placed.

Right now the viability of the economy of scale is dependent on AirAsiaX and Delta not scaling back, so the program has risk.

The 777x is dependent on the ME3, but due to orders from LH, BA, CX, ANS, and SQ, has a better foundation for MRO work even though sales volumes are similar, but due to leasing companies, ahead for the A330NEO.

Leasing companies developed a business model of speculatively buying slots and trying to sell. I would expect CIT, ALC, Avolon, BOC, and GECAS to have force majeure clauses that have triggered.

If Delta and thus Virgin Atlantic stick it out, I expect leasing companies to stick it out and eventually place aircraft.

Leeham isn't predicting a recovery until 2022 or 2023. That really hurts the A330NEO.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/04/06/ponti ... days-take/

For the 777, it means life support on freighters until then. At this time, the logical thing for both is trickle production.


Mentioning Boeing, that link notes MAX deliveries have slid so much hundreds could be cancelled. I expect that to happen unless something is negotiated.

Lightsaber


Please enlighten me how the 777X is in a better shape than the A330NEO??

Three airlines you mentioned, CX..SQ..& LH have scaled way back in their operations. Changi T2 wil be closed for 18 months.

As Leehman mentions, Boeing still lists the full 25 order from EY which supposedly they do not want. Then it mentions Tim Clark of EK, although leaving this summer, may reduce their 777X orders because of delays.

And as of right now, Airbus is producing...Boeing is not.

Just curious....cheers!!
 
Sokes
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:11 pm

Could Airbus and suppliers interrupt manufacturing until a solution is found for Covid 19/ demand picks up again?
What's the point of manufacturing at 50% when any time any of the suppliers may have to close down because of many infected employees?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:14 pm

Sokes wrote:
Could Airbus and suppliers interrupt manufacturing until a solution is found for Covid 19/ demand picks up again?
What's the point of manufacturing at 50% when any time any of the suppliers may have to close down because of many infected employees?

The real issue arises if/when a small manufacturer goes insolvent due to lack of business. It can take a very long time to find a replacement and get their parts approved by the relevant regulators. The OEMs really need to focus on avoiding that kind of problem, yet it'll probably be impossible to prevent all such issues.
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:36 pm

Revelation wrote:
...
I doubt anyone expects $1.5B to last to 2028. We also have Airbus saying they were ready to invest EUR 500M to EUR 1B in 2020 alone ( ref: https://simpleflying.com/airbus-a220-e1 ... nvestment/ ). While Airbus has its own worries, things will bounce back and the fundamentals look strong for A220 relative to its market segment. I think from Airbus's and from Canada's point of view, A220 is "too big to fail".


I think it is clear from the article below that Airbus Canada needs to fund its own operation from now on (click here).

I don't know if it is too big to fail. The A380 was considered as such.
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:48 pm

MEA-707 wrote:
A production rate of 2 per month is perfectly fine, they made some profit with the 300 before building 2 a month, I think they will have a positive cash flow until demand picks up in a few years. They are much easier to be made in a small corner in a Toulouse hall, compared to the A380 which needed a whole logistics system with special ships and road transports.

trex8 wrote:
Looking at graph at https://www.icf.com/insights/transporta ... t-analysis
A330 total production +/- 1-2 as graph not that easy to read exact numbers
1995. 28
1996. 7
1997. 17
1998. 22
1999. 45
2000. 41
2001. 36
2002. 41
2003. 30
2005. 58
2010. 78
2015. 110
2018. 37

Trickling at 2/month for next year or two , they've been there done that. It certainly isn't the cash printing days of the mid last decade but I suspect they wont be loosing their pants at 2/month either.

You have to remember to add the A340 to the historical data though. They were built on the same line so the A330 being at 2/mo didn’t necessarily mean the line was running at 2/mo. The A330 is no longer sharing production with another aircraft. It’s rate since 2011 is the entire production line/supply chain’s output.
Last edited by Polot on Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:57 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:50 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
enzo011 wrote:


Do you think Boeing is thinking of doing the same for the 777X?

The A330NEO fate is in the hands of a few airlines. The largest backlog is Air Asia with 2 of 78 delivered, but accepting no more.

Delta at 5 of 35, accepting no more at this time.
Then we have Guardia, Cebu Pacific, and Virgin Atlantic.

I count 20 of 82 leased aircraft placed.

Right now the viability of the economy of scale is dependent on AirAsiaX and Delta not scaling back, so the program has risk.

The 777x is dependent on the ME3, but due to orders from LH, BA, CX, ANS, and SQ, has a better foundation for MRO work even though sales volumes are similar, but due to leasing companies, ahead for the A330NEO.

Leasing companies developed a business model of speculatively buying slots and trying to sell. I would expect CIT, ALC, Avolon, BOC, and GECAS to have force majeure clauses that have triggered.

If Delta and thus Virgin Atlantic stick it out, I expect leasing companies to stick it out and eventually place aircraft.

Leeham isn't predicting a recovery until 2022 or 2023. That really hurts the A330NEO.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/04/06/ponti ... days-take/

For the 777, it means life support on freighters until then. At this time, the logical thing for both is trickle production.


Mentioning Boeing, that link notes MAX deliveries have slid so much hundreds could be cancelled. I expect that to happen unless something is negotiated.

Lightsaber


Please enlighten me how the 777X is in a better shape than the A330NEO??

Three airlines you mentioned, CX..SQ..& LH have scaled way back in their operations. Changi T2 wil be closed for 18 months.

As Leehman mentions, Boeing still lists the full 25 order from EY which supposedly they do not want. Then it mentions Tim Clark of EK, although leaving this summer, may reduce their 777X orders because of delays.

And as of right now, Airbus is producing...Boeing is not.

Just curious....cheers!!

Airbus is producing, but the situation in their main manufacturing country of France has yet to ease, as the coronavirus cases in France has yet to peak, what this means for Airbus is there will be a longer period of uncertainty in terms of maintaining a stable production, as the coronavirus situation in France could further worsen.

Meanwhile, Boeing played a helpful, responsible and commendable role in its own community by shutting down production. Plus, Washington state looks to have peaked, meaning, production could resume at Boeing's plants soon.
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:28 pm

VV wrote:
Revelation wrote:
...
I doubt anyone expects $1.5B to last to 2028. We also have Airbus saying they were ready to invest EUR 500M to EUR 1B in 2020 alone ( ref: https://simpleflying.com/airbus-a220-e1 ... nvestment/ ). While Airbus has its own worries, things will bounce back and the fundamentals look strong for A220 relative to its market segment. I think from Airbus's and from Canada's point of view, A220 is "too big to fail".


I think it is clear from the article below that Airbus Canada needs to fund its own operation from now on (click here).

I don't agree with your interpretation.

TFA says:

The new version of the joint venture has the capacity to borrow up to US $ 1.5 billion (C $ 2 billion) in the markets, enough to finance the investments required for the A220 to reach cruising speed. The program could lose money until 2025, according to Airbus.

"From now on, the joint venture will finance everything," Airbus chief financial officer Dominik Asam told analysts last week.

Airbus and Quebec will both guarantee the debts of the joint venture.

It just says the pre-COVID expectation was that the program would be self financing, with Airbus and IQ providing loan guarantees.

It obviously says nothing about what would happen should a pandemic change the expectations.

It does say they were already prepared for the venture to lose money through 2025.

VV wrote:
I don't know if it is too big to fail. The A380 was considered as such.

A380 always had very limited market potential for positive ROI, and once it was clear the market could not support it, it was allowed to fail.

I don't think A220 is in that same place.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:34 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Agree too..in that the A330NEO did not cost AIRBUS a whole lot of investment. So producing 2 per month in this current climate is doing quite well.


And while it drives unit cost up over a lifetime they'd still be making money with it, and having competition keeps sales prices of the 787 down. So strategically it makes probably sense to keep the line open as long the numbers don't turn red.

Best regards
Thomas


It is irrational to make a product at a loss to keep your competitor from making more money. This is called a lose-lose proposition. I can't believe Airbus management is that irrational. The 787 is a superior aircraft in every way vs. the A330neo. Airbus never imagined Boeing could reduce costs as far as they did on the 787. Once Boeing reduced costs enough to compete with the A330neo directly, the A330neo was on borrowed time.
 
trex8
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:15 pm

Polot wrote:
MEA-707 wrote:
A production rate of 2 per month is perfectly fine, they made some profit with the 300 before building 2 a month, I think they will have a positive cash flow until demand picks up in a few years. They are much easier to be made in a small corner in a Toulouse hall, compared to the A380 which needed a whole logistics system with special ships and road transports.

trex8 wrote:
Looking at graph at https://www.icf.com/insights/transporta ... t-analysis
A330 total production +/- 1-2 as graph not that easy to read exact numbers
1995. 28
1996. 7
1997. 17
1998. 22
1999. 45
2000. 41
2001. 36
2002. 41
2003. 30
2005. 58
2010. 78
2015. 110
2018. 37

Trickling at 2/month for next year or two , they've been there done that. It certainly isn't the cash printing days of the mid last decade but I suspect they wont be loosing their pants at 2/month either.

You have to remember to add the A340 to the historical data though. They were built on the same line so the A330 being at 2/mo didn’t necessarily mean the line was running at 2/mo. The A330 is no longer sharing production with another aircraft. It’s rate since 2011 is the entire production line/supply chain’s output.


excellent point!
 
Sokes
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:23 am

VV wrote:
I think it is clear from the article below that Airbus Canada needs to fund its own operation from now on (click here).

From your link:
"Airbus and Quebec will both guarantee the debts of the joint venture."
Either Airbus or Quebec or both did not want yearly injections of money into the program. Nothing changes concerning risk or opportunity.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Sokes
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:14 am

Jetport wrote:
The 787 is a superior aircraft in every way vs. the A330neo.

The -800 has a range of 8150 nm as opposed to 7355 nm of the B787-8. If you wanted to send customers over the Pacific, would you order it now?
Also keep in mind that the A330-800 is longer than the B787-8. It's a nice plane for 1+2+1 business and 2+3+2 premium economy.

Zeke pointed out that the A330-200 has higher operating cost, but also higher payload than B787-8.
See post 13 of viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1441621
According to Wikipedia this payload advantage is gone in the -800. However why would the maximum payload change? Were there changes in the fuselage? Wiki further states that the OEW has increased 12 t. I believe that's a calculation based on a customized plane for United. Anyone knows the OEW of A330-800?
So the Wiki specifications concerning A330 Neo look doubtful to me. But I'm happy to be corrected.

I believe the A330-800 will be just fine, just as the B777X will be just fine. They are not crazy at Airbus or Boeing to develop these planes.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:05 am

Jetport wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Agree too..in that the A330NEO did not cost AIRBUS a whole lot of investment. So producing 2 per month in this current climate is doing quite well.


And while it drives unit cost up over a lifetime they'd still be making money with it, and having competition keeps sales prices of the 787 down. So strategically it makes probably sense to keep the line open as long the numbers don't turn red.

Best regards
Thomas


It is irrational to make a product at a loss to keep your competitor from making more money. .


And that's why I said as long it doesn't ultimately lose them money.
If the rest of your post was true the neo would have zero sales.

Best regards
Thomas
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:09 am

Scotron12 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
enzo011 wrote:


Do you think Boeing is thinking of doing the same for the 777X?

The A330NEO fate is in the hands of a few airlines. The largest backlog is Air Asia with 2 of 78 delivered, but accepting no more.

Delta at 5 of 35, accepting no more at this time.
Then we have Guardia, Cebu Pacific, and Virgin Atlantic.

I count 20 of 82 leased aircraft placed.

Right now the viability of the economy of scale is dependent on AirAsiaX and Delta not scaling back, so the program has risk.

The 777x is dependent on the ME3, but due to orders from LH, BA, CX, ANS, and SQ, has a better foundation for MRO work even though sales volumes are similar, but due to leasing companies, ahead for the A330NEO.

Leasing companies developed a business model of speculatively buying slots and trying to sell. I would expect CIT, ALC, Avolon, BOC, and GECAS to have force majeure clauses that have triggered.

If Delta and thus Virgin Atlantic stick it out, I expect leasing companies to stick it out and eventually place aircraft.

Leeham isn't predicting a recovery until 2022 or 2023. That really hurts the A330NEO.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/04/06/ponti ... days-take/

For the 777, it means life support on freighters until then. At this time, the logical thing for both is trickle production.


Mentioning Boeing, that link notes MAX deliveries have slid so much hundreds could be cancelled. I expect that to happen unless something is negotiated.

Lightsaber


Please enlighten me how the 777X is in a better shape than the A330NEO??

Three airlines you mentioned, CX..SQ..& LH have scaled way back in their operations. Changi T2 wil be closed for 18 months.

As Leehman mentions, Boeing still lists the full 25 order from EY which supposedly they do not want. Then it mentions Tim Clark of EK, although leaving this summer, may reduce their 777X orders because of delays.

And as of right now, Airbus is producing...Boeing is not.

Just curious....cheers!!

I thought my post was clear, the 777x has a broad enough sales base to survive this downturn. If we assume the 3 largest buyers back out, it can still continue.

The A330NEO is very dependent as I noted on two buyers. Many of the orders are speculative lease orders. The CEO backlog is tankers and planes I consider unlikely to be delivered.

Ironically, the 777x not being in production is an advantage. Right now frieght is doing well. The 777 line can and will keep going on the old 777F which has 50 unfilled orders, enough to keep the line going even if we completely ignore the 20 unfilled passenger 777s.

Let us turn the question. There are 541 unfilled 787 orders vs. 293 A330NEO. The market is rational, why the disparity?

Note I did not discuss the A350. That aircraft will be the first widebody, in my opinion, to increase production once we are on the other side of this downturn.

The A330NEO is being produced at the minimum rate I consider break even now. (The 748 had to take charges and A388's weren't going out at a profit.)

We haven't heard what rate the 787 and 777 will drop to. They will drop.

This is the third major downturn in my career. Unfortunately downturns end production of aircraft. If a submodel, such as 77E, no big deal. When it is a category, such as 50 seat RJs, more interesting.

This downturn will probably end the production of several aircraft families due to the magnitude.

Lightsaber
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RJMAZ
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:42 am

lightsaber wrote:
For the 777, it means life support on freighters until then. At this time, the logical thing for both is trickle production.

The 777 freighters will not be 777X though. The 777X may have blue chip customers but the timing could not be worse. First planned delivery at the peak of a global lockdown. Entry into service date planned for next year. The borders might still be shut. Some say the 757-300 had bad timing.

There is actually a huge short term demand for more freighters as air freight prices has gone through the roof. The freighter companies are simply hiring more pilots and increasing utilisation of their fleet. The increased demand is because a huge portion of freight goes in the belly of passenger planes. With the passenger planes on the ground the global freight capacity is significantly reduced. However by the time Boeing could deliver extra freighters the crisis will probably be over.

Obviously in hindsight Boeing and Airbus would have been significantly better off by just doing a basic PIP to the existing A330CEO and 777W engines. They could have used the money saved from the development costs and put that towards discounts of the older model. They would easily have secured 100+ additional sales of the old model and would probably have a larger profit overall.

A few 777X orders have already been reduced and converted to 787 orders. Boeing could easily shock us with the 777X being cancelled and most orders converted to the 787.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:40 am

Sokes wrote:
The -800 has a range of 8150 nm as opposed to 7355 nm of the B787-8. If you wanted to send customers over the Pacific, would you order it now?

Hong Kong to San Francisco is only 6000nm.
Sydney to Los Angeles is only 6500nm.

I would take the aircraft that burns less fuel which is the 787-8. Both aircraft have the same cabin area, the 787 is lighter. Most airlines say the 9ab 787 is more efficient at providing lower fares for budget passengers while still keeping comfort at an acceptable level.

Sokes wrote:
I believe the A330-800 will be just fine, just as the B777X will be just fine. They are not crazy at Airbus or Boeing to develop these planes.

They weren't crazy because they started development when there was zero indication of a global pandemic. Boeing and Airbus would be crazy to continue development of both aircraft if this pandemic continues for years and the global demand was halved for a decade.

Passenger demand going forward there is clearly a best or worst case scenario.
 
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flee
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:46 am

lightsaber wrote:
Right now the viability of the economy of scale is dependent on AirAsiaX and Delta not scaling back, so the program has risk.

Leasing companies developed a business model of speculatively buying slots and trying to sell. I would expect CIT, ALC, Avolon, BOC, and GECAS to have force majeure clauses that have triggered.

If Delta and thus Virgin Atlantic stick it out, I expect leasing companies to stick it out and eventually place aircraft.

Leeham isn't predicting a recovery until 2022 or 2023. That really hurts the A330NEO.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/04/06/ponti ... days-take/
Lightsaber

Both Airasia X and Delta will take the aircraft, but will probably push deliveries back by 2 or 3 years. It is unlikely that Airasia X will switch to the A350 or B787 because they are too much aircraft for their route network. They may also take this opportunity to restructure and renegotiate their current leases so that their current fleet of older aircraft can be returned ahead of schedule. Leasing companies not only have their own order books to place but they are also often called upon by airlines for sale and leaseback deals.

Airbus has always taken a long term view of its business and should adjust its plans accordingly. The A20Neo and A330Neo programmes did not cost them a lot money and it should not be too difficult to keep them ticking over. By constantly reviewing their backlog with customers, they can ramp up production again once there are clear signs of market recovery.
 
Sokes
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:48 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Sokes wrote:
The -800 has a range of 8150 nm as opposed to 7355 nm of the B787-8. If you wanted to send customers over the Pacific, would you order it now?

Hong Kong to San Francisco is only 6000nm.
Sydney to Los Angeles is only 6500nm.

Point taken. But is it possible that the A330-800 on very long ranges can climb higher earlier?

If the crises continues for years Airbus will have other problems than the A330.
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:44 am

Sokes wrote:
According to Wikipedia this payload advantage is gone in the -800. However why would the maximum payload change? Were there changes in the fuselage? Wiki further states that the OEW has increased 12 t. I believe that's a calculation based on a customized plane for United. Anyone knows the OEW of A330-800?
So the Wiki specifications concerning A330 Neo look doubtful to me. But I'm happy to be corrected.


As far as I know, no difference in fuselage, but heavier engines+nacelles+pylons. Not sure about the weight difference, but a total of 4 or 5t would not surprise me. Like you, I consider the 12t difference doubtful.

In any case, if MZFW remains the same or does not change much, a small decrease in payload seems to make sense to me. But again, not a huge one.
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:22 am

Sokes wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Hong Kong to San Francisco is only 6000nm.
Sydney to Los Angeles is only 6500nm.

Point taken. But is it possible that the A330-800 on very long ranges can climb higher earlier?

If the crises continues for years Airbus will have other problems than the A330.

There is very limited situations where the A330-800 could have an advantage over the 787-8. Trip fuel burn and fuel burn per passenger will always be in favor of the 787-8 right up to the 7355nm brochure range.

The 787-8 can carry max payload up to 5500nm.
The A330-800 can carry max payload up to 6500nm.
So if an airline maxed out payload by always putting extra cargo in the hold and had a route over 6000nm then the A330-800 would have a slight advantage. It would have better fuel burn per kg of payload carried. On such a route the A330-800 might burn 5% more fuel on the trip but it could carry 10% more payload than a 787-8. That is very niche and is hardly a reason to buy the aircraft.
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:24 am

Sokes wrote:
They are not crazy at Airbus or Boeing to develop these planes.

A318, A342, A345, 736, 764ER, 77L, 748i..........
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:59 am

I think that the Covid-19 pandamic will increase demand for smaller aircraft. So I think A350-1000 and 777X will suffer the most and demand for 787-8 and A330NEO will increase.
During the peak of the crisis many 767s and A340s will end up at partout companies. There isn't a good replacement for the A300-600, early A330s and 767s. While I expect a lot of demand for smaller widebodies after the pandamic. The A321XLR doesn't carry the freight required for many routes.
The A320NEO involved the reenginging first followed by several improvements for the A321NEO (ACF and XLR). I always expected the same for the A330NEO, but this hasn't happened. Thus I always thought that the A330NEO wouldn't last long.
Demand for A330NEO was also hampered by trouble with the Trent1000 engines, because the trent7000 is a version of the trent1000ten.
In my oppinion Airbus should launch a A330/A340 like program, utilizing ultrafan engines. This could replace A300-600, A330CEO, A330NEO (A340-200/-300). But timing is several years out.
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:03 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Sokes wrote:
The -800 has a range of 8150 nm as opposed to 7355 nm of the B787-8. If you wanted to send customers over the Pacific, would you order it now?

Hong Kong to San Francisco is only 6000nm.
Sydney to Los Angeles is only 6500nm.

I would take the aircraft that burns less fuel which is the 787-8. Both aircraft have the same cabin area, the 787 is lighter. Most airlines say the 9ab 787 is more efficient at providing lower fares for budget passengers while still keeping comfort at an acceptable level.

Sokes wrote:
I believe the A330-800 will be just fine, just as the B777X will be just fine. They are not crazy at Airbus or Boeing to develop these planes.

They weren't crazy because they started development when there was zero indication of a global pandemic. Boeing and Airbus would be crazy to continue development of both aircraft if this pandemic continues for years and the global demand was halved for a decade.

Passenger demand going forward there is clearly a best or worst case scenario.


Hasn't Airbus already finished development of the A330neo? The A339 is certainly finished, the A338 was certified recently, wasn't it?
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:44 am

Airbus has announced plans to put on hold the new A321 assembly line at TLS

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... sinessNews
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:05 am

"Chief Executive Guillaume Faury told reporters this week that Airbus would “hibernate” new investments to save cash."

That doesn't bode well for the A220 production 'ramp up'
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:13 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Sokes wrote:
They are not crazy at Airbus or Boeing to develop these planes.

A318, A342, A345, 736, 764ER, 77L, 748i..........

The A340 was generally not so good as engines didn't perform as expected. Speaking about shrinks or stretches that only sell 20 - 50 pieces:
Why is Boeing and Airbus discussing with Qantas for a plane that flies Sydney to London non-stop? Adjustments are minor, but then we speak of maybe 12 planes Qantas considers to order. I myself am surprised this is possible. It seems customers are willing to pay crazy prices for planes with exceptional range.
Or is it a means to keep engineers busy when no major project is running/ engineering demand is low?

But with B767-400ER and A318 I have to agree with you. And I always wondered why Boeing didn't make a complete new carbon wing for B747. The A380 was too heavy even for a 80 m wing. The B747-8i including freighter demand may have made a better very large aircraft. Or was the GE-90 just too good?

Overall you are right. Just because a company does something doesn't mean it is smart. I myself have often wondered about management decisions. The way I argued was wrong.
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:11 pm

fcogafa wrote:
"Chief Executive Guillaume Faury told reporters this week that Airbus would “hibernate” new investments to save cash."

That doesn't bode well for the A220 production 'ramp up'

Airbus is in cash conservation mode. The post above yours notes that the A321 work at Toulouse is on hold, a much higher priority investment.

Airbus already announced Mirabel is dropping from 5 to 4 per month. At this time mobile remains at the 1 to 2 per month.

We probably lost the need for 1.5 to 3 years of Aircraft production in this downturn.

Now is the time for infrastructure investment.

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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:20 pm

fcogafa wrote:
"Chief Executive Guillaume Faury told reporters this week that Airbus would “hibernate” new investments to save cash."

That doesn't bode well for the A220 production 'ramp up'


That ramp is not a "new" investment. And they have a partner in that program.
Last edited by TObound on Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:24 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Sokes wrote:
They are not crazy at Airbus or Boeing to develop these planes.

A318, A342, A345, 736, 764ER, 77L, 748i..........


They are derivatives. Relatively cheaper to develop. And in most cases help secure larger orders.

Magnificent as the A380 was. Maybe that is one we can say was "crazy to develop".
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:48 pm

Will they restart A380 for EK in that lagardere plant or what will they do with it?
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:12 pm

qf789 wrote:
Airbus has announced plans to put on hold the new A321 assembly line at TLS

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... sinessNews

The union is non plussed about this:

That leaves a question over what to do with its massive Lagardere A380 production plant in Toulouse, where production of the world’s largest airliner is due to end in coming months, raising uncertainty over the role of hundreds of workers.

French unions said they would fight for the plant.

“Unlike Guillaume Faury who wants to halt non-essential investment, we think the arrival of a new A321 line in the Lagardere factory must be maintained,” said CGT union official Xavier Petrachi.

-

Vladex wrote:
Will they restart A380 for EK in that lagardere plant or what will they do with it?

As far as we know they did not stop A380 production yet. Last I read the last full A380 convoy (wings + fuse) has happened, and there is one more final partial A380 convoy (fuse) that was supposed to happen this month. Eventually the last new A380s will leave TLS for XFW this year and take a few months at XFW to be finished.

The link above suggests they will just suspend development of the new A321 line and resume once economic conditions allow.
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:57 pm

Easyjet deferring 24xA320 and new A321 line at Toulouse "paused"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... risis-hits
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:10 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Easyjet deferring 24xA320 and new A321 line at Toulouse "paused"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... risis-hits

Stellios got his way, so it seems.
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:21 pm

Stelios wanted them cancelled, there is a shareholders meeting coming up to 'discuss' it and vote on calls to remove some decision makers

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/eas ... 41.article
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:04 pm

flee wrote:
AFAIK, they cancelled 5 x A359s and postponed their first A338 delivery.

Elsewhere it was implied that cancellation of the last 5 A359s insured the A338 order. Stirring the pot does bring to the surface choice broth morsels. It bears watching if KU would push through with all eight...or if Airbus would indeed continue its production. Not that additional orders would change the overall picture much. :scratchchin:


RJMAZ wrote:
So if an airline maxed out payload by always putting extra cargo in the hold and had a route over 6000nm then the A330-800 would have a slight advantage. It would have better fuel burn per kg of payload carried. On such a route the A330-800 might burn 5% more fuel on the trip but it could carry 10% more payload than a 787-8. That is very niche and is hardly a reason to buy the aircraft.

So, if they plan on using it i.e., between SEA and MNL where time aloft stretches much during winter and pax habitually pack everything they could...wouldn't you say that cheaper option is right smack on that niche and a sane acquisition? Of course - not during this crisis when the carrier is in some financial straits.


Revelation wrote:
Eventually the last new A380s will leave TLS for XFW this year and take a few months at XFW to be finished.

I wonder if some ME Sheik would still have the fortitude to pick up one of this unborn "whales" should Airbus offer it at a stonking price...and there's a completion center daring enough to convert it into his "flying palace"..... :cloudnine:
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:34 pm

Devilfish wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Eventually the last new A380s will leave TLS for XFW this year and take a few months at XFW to be finished.

I wonder if some ME Sheik would still have the fortitude to pick up one of this unborn "whales" should Airbus offer it at a stonking price...and there's a completion center daring enough to convert it into his "flying palace"..... :cloudnine:

I enjoy the vision, but it seems OPEC just announced a 23% production cut so it would take a lot of fortitude indeed to decide to outfit an A380 fit for a king in today's climate.

It seems Airbus has written off the one and only A380 targeted for VVIP use.

One paragraph of interest:

Airbus further clarified the fate of the aircraft, telling AIN, “In past years there have been many articles saying that the interior has this or that inside it, and that it cost X or Y to complete. The articles are all pure speculation (and wrong), because the aircraft was never delivered and never outfitted.”

Ref: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... a380-order

So, it seems all those blogger posts about the opulence of the jet were utter shite, according to Airbus it never had a stitch of finishing work done to it.

And that's not all that hard to understand, since an A380 is not really a convenient VVIP aircraft since each airport it flies to needs to have been approved for A380 operation and many are not.
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:04 pm

qf789 wrote:
Airbus has announced plans to put on hold the new A321 assembly line at TLS

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... sinessNews

The article has been updated 3 time now, and the content is leaning into the issue with regards to labor concerns:

The move could rekindle a debate over the balance of jobs between French and German plants at the company, founded as a European consortium 51 years ago.

Airlines are shifting more towards single-aisle jets like the Hamburg-assembled A321 at the expense of wide-body jets put together in Toulouse, leaving French workers on edge.

When the recovery does come, small jets are expected to lead the way because they are easier to fill and trip costs are low.
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
And that's not all that hard to understand, since an A380 is not really a convenient VVIP aircraft since each airport it flies to needs to have been approved for A380 operation and many are not.


This is a red herring. You could use any airport that is A380 diversion ready for VVIP operations and there are 400 of those around the world.
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:02 pm

lightsaber wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
"Chief Executive Guillaume Faury told reporters this week that Airbus would “hibernate” new investments to save cash."

That doesn't bode well for the A220 production 'ramp up'

Airbus is in cash conservation mode. The post above yours notes that the A321 work at Toulouse is on hold, a much higher priority investment.

Airbus already announced Mirabel is dropping from 5 to 4 per month. At this time mobile remains at the 1 to 2 per month.

We probably lost the need for 1.5 to 3 years of Aircraft production in this downturn.

Now is the time for infrastructure investment.

Lightsaber


Exactly. Finishing the construction at Mirabel and Mobile will position them to do fantastically well beyond this crisis. And without the added pressure of running the ramp up at the same time.
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:22 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
And that's not all that hard to understand, since an A380 is not really a convenient VVIP aircraft since each airport it flies to needs to have been approved for A380 operation and many are not.


This is a red herring. You could use any airport that is A380 diversion ready for VVIP operations and there are 400 of those around the world.

Right, so if the Sheik wants to go to Goose Bay or Midway Atoll he's all set, or maybe he favors Ascension Island or Shemya instead? Enewetak and Irkutsk are so underrated!

A lot of these 'diversion airports' require either closing a runway while the A380 sits on the end of it (since taxiways aren't adequate) or closing taxiways whilst it moves (since spacing is not adequate).

As I said, this makes it an inconvenient VVIP aircraft.

And since zero are now in that role, we have plenty of evidence to support the notion that whatever advantages it has are outweighed by its disadvantages.
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:34 pm

In addition to cancelled and deferred orders, the global downturn brings some other issues top of mind, that Airbus has been wrestling with, some without clear direction or success.

A320. Becomes even more pivotal and THE cash cow for the foreseeable future. Airbus has been adding volume, but without achieving any real economies for scale, This hasn't been a problem, because margins have been fattened for in demand models like the 321.

But now margins are going South. Every existing customer with the financial ability to take delivery wants a re-price. And a MAX RTS adds even more pressure.

A220. A model enjoying inflated prices riding on the coat tails of the A320 family, but still achieving optimistic zero margins as Airbus work through 'launch' and 'volume launch' deals. With lower A320 pricing, will Airbus prefer to sell an A319NEO (or even develop an A318NEO)? For how long can Airbus afford to carry the A220? Are there any 'get out of jail' clauses that permit Airbus to reverse equity interests in the project?

A330NEO. A model with an inflated list price and consistently degraded capabilities to protect A350 sales and pricing. A model still preferred by lessors and smaller operators compared to the 787 (management software is considered too complex). Is the A330 unleashed or canned? Are A330NEO freight versions offered? If the model is canned, what impact on military sales?

A350. Does the focus switch from bigger to smaller variants, even though equivalent / comparable A330NEO variants are more profitable and as capable?

While Airbus have squandered opportunities to achieve economies of scale, Boeing has done the opposite, squeezing the supply chain from every direction. How many suppliers will take the opportunity to exit the aviation market, requiring Boeing to bring yet more MAX and 787 work in-house?

Engine OEM rationalisation has been on the cards for a decade. Does anyone have the funding or appetite to make it happen? Never cheaper or politically more acceptable, but................. At least OEM's generate cash flow on WB engine maintenance contracts, even if engines are stored, providing customers can afford to pay. Could Safran buy GE commercial aero engines? Could PW buy / merge with RR commercial aero engines? Could RR buy PW commercial aero engines? Could Safran buy RR aero engines?

Finance. What will become of Boeing Capital, carrying undelivered military and civil aircraft? Will the commercial scene reset 20-30 years, with higher credit standards, and only OEM's writing green fields business? How impaired will relevant EXIM's be?
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:48 pm

Just a month ago there were confident posters saying that A320 NE0 is completely sold out for 5 years at least and no one can order it. Now it's completely opened up.and yet those same people are keeping their old story.
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:34 pm

smartplane wrote:
In addition to cancelled and deferred orders, the global downturn brings some other issues top of mind, that Airbus has been wrestling with, some without clear direction or success.

A320. Becomes even more pivotal and THE cash cow for the foreseeable future. Airbus has been adding volume, but without achieving any real economies for scale, This hasn't been a problem, because margins have been fattened for in demand models like the 321.

But now margins are going South. Every existing customer with the financial ability to take delivery wants a re-price. And a MAX RTS adds even more pressure.

A220. A model enjoying inflated prices riding on the coat tails of the A320 family, but still achieving optimistic zero margins as Airbus work through 'launch' and 'volume launch' deals. With lower A320 pricing, will Airbus prefer to sell an A319NEO (or even develop an A318NEO)? For how long can Airbus afford to carry the A220? Are there any 'get out of jail' clauses that permit Airbus to reverse equity interests in the project?

A330NEO. A model with an inflated list price and consistently degraded capabilities to protect A350 sales and pricing. A model still preferred by lessors and smaller operators compared to the 787 (management software is considered too complex). Is the A330 unleashed or canned? Are A330NEO freight versions offered? If the model is canned, what impact on military sales?

A350. Does the focus switch from bigger to smaller variants, even though equivalent / comparable A330NEO variants are more profitable and as capable?

While Airbus have squandered opportunities to achieve economies of scale, Boeing has done the opposite, squeezing the supply chain from every direction. How many suppliers will take the opportunity to exit the aviation market, requiring Boeing to bring yet more MAX and 787 work in-house?

Engine OEM rationalisation has been on the cards for a decade. Does anyone have the funding or appetite to make it happen? Never cheaper or politically more acceptable, but................. At least OEM's generate cash flow on WB engine maintenance contracts, even if engines are stored, providing customers can afford to pay. Could Safran buy GE commercial aero engines? Could PW buy / merge with RR commercial aero engines? Could RR buy PW commercial aero engines? Could Safran buy RR aero engines?

Finance. What will become of Boeing Capital, carrying undelivered military and civil aircraft? Will the commercial scene reset 20-30 years, with higher credit standards, and only OEM's writing green fields business? How impaired will relevant EXIM's be?

Lets start with the easy. The A319NEO is too heavy and the engines are run at such a low fraction of their 35k design thrust, it is not a competitive platform.

The A220 has a backlog. The ramp will slow.

Leasing companies liked the deals they received on the A330NEO. As I pisted posted before, either DL or AirAsia X could do significant damage to the type. We've been in a widebody glut for 18 months and for less profitable models, going forward will be brutal.

As to engine consolidation, UTC is huge, RR couldn't afford them and Pratt is very unlikely to spin off. UTC buying Raytheon for defense revenue is suddenly brilliant.

RR is in trouble. Deep trouble. They rely on power by the hour. They might be bought.

Airbus or Boeing lack the cash to buy GE or UTC.

I won't worry about finance. Central banks are printing money. All the finance companies, including Boeing capital, will be fine.

Boeing lost economy of scale on the MAX. Since the line is already shut down, it is just a debate on restart.

Aviation will recover, but going forward will be brutal.

All airlines will negotiate lower purchase pricing to some degree. Ok, unlikely DL on A330NEO and A220, but everything else is up for grabs.

A220 won't break even as early.
A320 profits will drop, but not go away.
A330NEO is in a bind. I expect AirAsiaX to talk to Boeing again.
A350 will have to reduce costs
A380 is basically done anyway, last parts in Toulouse, soon shut down Toulouse, and just cabin in Hamburg.

737 MAX production will restart at a slower rate breaking economy of scale.
747 is on the final production. Freight is ok, but too late for more.
767 tanker/freight sales are ironically pretty safe
787 will slow and the cash cow will be much less profitable.
777 will have to rely on freighters. The 777x probably be delayed.

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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
So, it seems all those blogger posts about the opulence of the jet were utter shite, according to Airbus it never had a stitch of finishing work done to it.

Nonetheless the renderings, gaudy as they were, fueled endless discussions here to the delight of the peanut gallery. :biggrin:


Revelation wrote:
Right, so if the Sheik wants to go to Goose Bay or Midway Atoll he's all set, or maybe he favors Ascension Island or Shemya instead?

Perhaps the Sheik is an avid birdwatcher - in which case a couple at least of those diversions could cater to his pleasure, as well as ensure that plenty of the feathered creatures are present to do battle with the four GP7000s on the whale's wings. Being "utterly loaded" certainly has its perks, though I doubt it includes casually flying into restricted airfields?...but I digress. ;)
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:03 am

Sokes wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Sokes wrote:
They are not crazy at Airbus or Boeing to develop these planes.

A318, A342, A345, 736, 764ER, 77L, 748i..........

The A340 was generally not so good as engines didn't perform as expected.

Huh? The engines performed exactly as expected.

The issue you're probably thinking of, is that Airbus didn't get the IAE SuperFan engine that they'd originally planned for the A340. But once that was no longer an option, the CFM56 did everything for the A340 that the OEMs planned for it too.



TObound wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Sokes wrote:
They are not crazy at Airbus or Boeing to develop these planes.

A318, A342, A345, 736, 764ER, 77L, 748i

They are derivatives. Relatively cheaper to develop. And in most cases help secure larger orders.

I'm aware, seeing as the post is in response to the creation of derivatives.......
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:03 am

lightsaber wrote:
smartplane wrote:
In addition to cancelled and deferred orders, the global downturn brings some other issues top of mind, that Airbus has been wrestling with, some without clear direction or success.

A320. Becomes even more pivotal and THE cash cow for the foreseeable future. Airbus has been adding volume, but without achieving any real economies for scale, This hasn't been a problem, because margins have been fattened for in demand models like the 321.

But now margins are going South. Every existing customer with the financial ability to take delivery wants a re-price. And a MAX RTS adds even more pressure.

A220. A model enjoying inflated prices riding on the coat tails of the A320 family, but still achieving optimistic zero margins as Airbus work through 'launch' and 'volume launch' deals. With lower A320 pricing, will Airbus prefer to sell an A319NEO (or even develop an A318NEO)? For how long can Airbus afford to carry the A220? Are there any 'get out of jail' clauses that permit Airbus to reverse equity interests in the project?

A330NEO. A model with an inflated list price and consistently degraded capabilities to protect A350 sales and pricing. A model still preferred by lessors and smaller operators compared to the 787 (management software is considered too complex). Is the A330 unleashed or canned? Are A330NEO freight versions offered? If the model is canned, what impact on military sales?

A350. Does the focus switch from bigger to smaller variants, even though equivalent / comparable A330NEO variants are more profitable and as capable?

While Airbus have squandered opportunities to achieve economies of scale, Boeing has done the opposite, squeezing the supply chain from every direction. How many suppliers will take the opportunity to exit the aviation market, requiring Boeing to bring yet more MAX and 787 work in-house?

Engine OEM rationalisation has been on the cards for a decade. Does anyone have the funding or appetite to make it happen? Never cheaper or politically more acceptable, but................. At least OEM's generate cash flow on WB engine maintenance contracts, even if engines are stored, providing customers can afford to pay. Could Safran buy GE commercial aero engines? Could PW buy / merge with RR commercial aero engines? Could RR buy PW commercial aero engines? Could Safran buy RR aero engines?

Finance. What will become of Boeing Capital, carrying undelivered military and civil aircraft? Will the commercial scene reset 20-30 years, with higher credit standards, and only OEM's writing green fields business? How impaired will relevant EXIM's be?

Lets start with the easy. The A319NEO is too heavy and the engines are run at such a low fraction of their 35k design thrust, it is not a competitive platform.

The A220 has a backlog. The ramp will slow.

Leasing companies liked the deals they received on the A330NEO. As I pisted posted before, either DL or AirAsia X could do significant damage to the type. We've been in a widebody glut for 18 months and for less profitable models, going forward will be brutal.

As to engine consolidation, UTC is huge, RR couldn't afford them and Pratt is very unlikely to spin off. UTC buying Raytheon for defense revenue is suddenly brilliant.

RR is in trouble. Deep trouble. They rely on power by the hour. They might be bought.

Airbus or Boeing lack the cash to buy GE or UTC.

I won't worry about finance. Central banks are printing money. All the finance companies, including Boeing capital, will be fine.

Boeing lost economy of scale on the MAX. Since the line is already shut down, it is just a debate on restart.

Aviation will recover, but going forward will be brutal.

All airlines will negotiate lower purchase pricing to some degree. Ok, unlikely DL on A330NEO and A220, but everything else is up for grabs.

A220 won't break even as early.
A320 profits will drop, but not go away.
A330NEO is in a bind. I expect AirAsiaX to talk to Boeing again.
A350 will have to reduce costs
A380 is basically done anyway, last parts in Toulouse, soon shut down Toulouse, and just cabin in Hamburg.

737 MAX production will restart at a slower rate breaking economy of scale.
747 is on the final production. Freight is ok, but too late for more.
767 tanker/freight sales are ironically pretty safe
787 will slow and the cash cow will be much less profitable.
777 will have to rely on freighters. The 777x probably be delayed.

Lightsaber

Would there really be that much benefit in AirAsia talking to Boeing? They can't get those aircraft sooner than A339s, but I don't think the A339 is the problem anyway, it works well for their network (9ab helps economics). Their problems are more with their finances and passenger numbers, aren't they? I just don't see the benefit.

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