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inkjet7
Posts: 169
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Re: Air France May Have To Permanently Cut Domestic Service by Half to Get Aid

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:14 pm

IWMBH wrote:
I think the concern of governments should be to get the money back for the taxpayer and maybe make some money in the proces, while making AF/KL into a successful company that safeguards French and Dutch interests in the long term.


Exactly. And all this complaining about the AF/KL holding as it is is not going to help.
 
IWMBH
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Re: Air France May Have To Permanently Cut Domestic Service by Half to Get Aid

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:23 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
I think the concern of governments should be to get the money back for the taxpayer and maybe make some money in the proces, while making AF/KL into a successful company that safeguards French and Dutch interests in the long term.


Exactly. And all this complaining about the AF/KL holding as it is is not going to help.


Agreed, an AF/KL breakup is unrealistic. It doesn’t help the interest of neither party.

But, this can change if the French or Dutch government are forcing either KL or AF to make changes that make them inherently unprofitable. In that case a breakup would be better.
 
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ro1960
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Fri May 01, 2020 7:26 am

Why reducing Air France's domestic flights is not a given
Article in French

According to this article, only three AF domestic routes don't have a 2h30 train alternative:
ORY-NTE
ORY-BOD
ORY-LYS

CDG-RNS/NTE/BOD/LYS could also be axed be they're major feeders for AF's long-haul network with more than 80% connecting passengers.

Domestic flights to ORY are also feeders to AF and other airlines' flights to the Antilles, Guyana and Reunion. The TGV Air alternative drops passengers at the Massy train station where passengers have to get on a bus or a taxi to reach ORY. An alternative that is neither practical, cheap or time-saving.

The LYS mini-hub could also be threatened by this rule. Many "transversale" lines like CFR/LYS and LYS/NCE would have no viable train alternative.

To me, it looks like the impact on CO2 emission would be close to nothing. Many French airports are well connected to the other European hubs (LHR, AMS, FRA) so passengers would probably turn to other connecting alternative for their long-haul flights.

We can't blame the French government for helping AF out of the crisis but conditioning the loans to a strong CO2 reduction seems more like an excuse at this point rather than a proper environmental strategy.
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Boair
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Fri May 01, 2020 1:24 pm

ro1960 wrote:
According to this article, only three AF domestic routes don't have a 2h30 train alternative:
ORY-NTE
ORY-BOD
ORY-LYS

CDG-RNS/NTE/BOD/LYS could also be axed be they're major feeders for AF's long-haul network with more than 80% connecting passengers.

Domestic flights to ORY are also feeders to AF and other airlines' flights to the Antilles, Guyana and Reunion. The TGV Air alternative drops passengers at the Massy train station where passengers have to get on a bus or a taxi to reach ORY. An alternative that is neither practical, cheap or time-saving.

The LYS mini-hub could also be threatened by this rule. Many "transversale" lines like CFR/LYS and LYS/NCE would have no viable train alternative.




Small correction: "only three AF domestic routes DO have a 2h30 train alternative"
For the moment, these routes would be the most affected by the new rule.

Regarding the CDG/RNS/NTE/BOD/LYS, the article says that to reach one of these cities from CDG airport, it would take more than 2h30 by train. AFAIK out of these, only LYS could be axed with a TGV leaving directly from CDG airport. For the others, you would probably have to take the RER to Paris and then take a TGV.

For LYS, my understanding is that some routes are affected (LYS-MXP or LYS-NCE) but most of the "transversale" lines (LYS-NTE/BES...) are not affected. Problem for the LYS hub would be that by axing LYS-MXP or NCE, you would lose passengers from other French cities and those cities would ended up with no train alternative (like BES-MXP) In less than 2h30.
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ro1960
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Fri May 01, 2020 2:35 pm

Boair wrote:
Small correction: "only three AF domestic routes DO have a 2h30 train alternative"
For the moment, these routes would be the most affected by the new rule.


Indeed. Thanks for the correction.

Boair wrote:
AFAIK out of these, only LYS could be axed with a TGV leaving directly from CDG airport.


Hence the push for a better air-rail integration
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Ggui9
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Fri May 01, 2020 3:19 pm

There's a difference between deleting and limiting. The media and Bruno Lemaire relayed the information that the lines were going to be closed. However, it was only decided that ticket sales to destinations within 2h30 by TGV would no longer be possible for point-to-point, but that connecting passengers would still be able to travel.

Therefore lines such as CDG-LYS (where 80% of passengers are currently connecting) will still be possible but only for connecting passengers.
 
Thibault973
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Fri May 01, 2020 6:01 pm

Ggui9 wrote:
There's a difference between deleting and limiting. The media and Bruno Lemaire relayed the information that the lines were going to be closed. However, it was only decided that ticket sales to destinations within 2h30 by TGV would no longer be possible for point-to-point, but that connecting passengers would still be able to travel.

Therefore lines such as CDG-LYS (where 80% of passengers are currently connecting) will still be possible but only for connecting passengers.


I don't know who in its right mind would fly Paris to Lyon P2P anyway. Yes, air fares are most often than not cheaper than the train but factor in the hassle to get to ORY/CDG then from LYS to Lyon (+ the 15min airportshuttle ride will set you a whooping 15,20 €) and I'd rather either pay a bit more for the 1h50 TGV ride or just stay at home.
 
Thibault973
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Fri May 01, 2020 6:12 pm

Boair wrote:

Small correction: "only three AF domestic routes DO have a 2h30 train alternative"
For the moment, these routes would be the most affected by the new rule.

Regarding the CDG/RNS/NTE/BOD/LYS, the article says that to reach one of these cities from CDG airport, it would take more than 2h30 by train. AFAIK out of these, only LYS could be axed with a TGV leaving directly from CDG airport. For the others, you would probably have to take the RER to Paris and then take a TGV.

For LYS, my understanding is that some routes are affected (LYS-MXP or LYS-NCE) but most of the "transversale" lines (LYS-NTE/BES...) are not affected. Problem for the LYS hub would be that by axing LYS-MXP or NCE, you would lose passengers from other French cities and those cities would ended up with no train alternative (like BES-MXP) In less than 2h30.


LYS-NCE by train takes 4h at best ! Marseille - Nice isn't part of the HSR network and it takes forever. It will take just a little longer to go to Paris from Marseille than to Nice. There has been talks about upgrading the Marseille - Nice segment for years (since the 90s) but it's still unknown who's gonna foot the à 26B euros bill and the whole thing is not expected to open until 2035.
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Fri May 01, 2020 6:22 pm

I bought and flew LYS-CDG last year for good reason. I was travelling from Grenoble to London outside the winter ski season

The nonstop flight LYS-London on British Airways or Easyjet was very expensive in the evening for the day of travel. I'm guessing a lot more people than normal wanted to fly specifically from Lyon to London that evening, but Paris did not see a surge in demand

The evening flight LYS-CDG on Air France arrived at CDG too late to be able to change terminals and catch a connecting onward flight to London with Air France. There was however a later (and cheap) flight with Easyjet from CDG to London

As far as Air France was concerned I flew LYS-CDG on a P2P basis. Easyjet saw me flying CDG-London as P2P
The chance of Easyjet and Air France allowing interline ticketing that is available to the public is zero
 
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ro1960
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Fri May 01, 2020 6:54 pm

Ggui9 wrote:
There's a difference between deleting and limiting. The media and Bruno Lemaire relayed the information that the lines were going to be closed. However, it was only decided that ticket sales to destinations within 2h30 by TGV would no longer be possible for point-to-point, but that connecting passengers would still be able to travel.

Therefore lines such as CDG-LYS (where 80% of passengers are currently connecting) will still be possible but only for connecting passengers.


You’re probably right but it is still very blurry as to how France is going to manage this. Can a EU member state impose such restrictions?
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davidjohnson6
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Fri May 01, 2020 7:11 pm

If Ryanair wanted to fly CDG-LYS (and obtained slots), it would likely be illegal for the French Govt to prevent this.

If Air France "of its own choice out of concern for the environment" decides to sell CDG-LYS only in conjunction with a connecting flight, then that is a decision for Air France. The fact that Air France desperately needs Govt money and the Govt thinks people should not fly CDG-LYS P2P is just a coincidence
 
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adambrau
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Re: Air France May Have To Permanently Cut Domestic Service by Half to Get Aid

Fri May 01, 2020 11:23 pm

IWMBH wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
enilria wrote:
While the U.S. DOT forces carriers to keep flying domestic routes, France tells Air France to cut domestic flights by as much as 50% by 2024. Cuckoo...cuckoo...

Air France will have to cut its carbon emissions and domestic flights as conditions for government financial support, France’s finance minister said on Wednesday.

For flights specifically in mainland France, emissions would have to be halved by 2024, which Le Maire said meant that domestic flights would be “drastically reduced” to focus on serving hubs for transfers.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN22B2EL


So governments are in the wrong for making airlines cut flights, and also in the wrong for making airlines keep making flights, as a condition of getting bailed out (as per one of your other threads, concerning B6.) Are governments expected to give them the money with no strings attached? Because I'd point out that's a standard that we've never held private investors to. Or is your position that the airlines should be allowed to fail? I mean, sure, but that implies another set of questions. Do we want to wipe the board totally clean with every economic shock? I can see that having a certain ideological appeal, but ideologies don't put food on the table. Or do we need to compel businesses to keep a rainy-day fund somehow? It clearly isn't a competitive advantage under ordinary circumstances to have one, given how airlines behaved prior to this whole mess kicking off.


I think it's good that governments have some demands if airlines or any other business need taxpayer money. But, politicians shouldn't use the support for airlines for their own political gains. If there is market demand for flights within France, why force AF to cut them? If there is a market other airlines will jump at the occasion and take the revenue AF would've made, how does this help the French economy or the environment? The lost revenue could've been paid in dividend to the French government.

And it doesn't stop there, the French government told AF to buy Airbus planes. I would be very worried as an investor that a government official decides which plane AF should fly. And although the investments in sustainable air travel is good for the environment, there should be a businesscase behind it to make it truly sustainable.

Government interference in both Air France and KLM can be bad for their long time growth, profitability and their competitive position in the market. And this undermines the whole idea behind the financial support in the first place. I think the concern of governments should be to get the money back for the taxpayer and maybe make some money in the proces, while making AF/KL into a successful company that safeguards French and Dutch interests in the long term.


Just a couple of observations.....

1. AF is going to have to repay all the loans and money it gets from the state. There are strings attached - it's not a blank cheque.
2. AF already had on order a whole bunch of A220 and A350's long before state aid was being discussed. These planes are 20-25% more fuel efficient than a318/9 and 773's. So reduce a few more French Provincial cities with a few more A220's and yes we can make a huge reduction in emissions by 2024. Int'lly we are not ever going to fly the A380 again and the A340's are gone. We have 70 777's of various types many are not flying at the moment and the A350's and perhaps a few 789's could replace half the 777's when order filled.
3. The main reason for the state aid is to support employees and avoid BK. I am getting 85% of my my normal pay. First the company will offer retirement packages, do training and transfer people to stations where they are needed. Wow, isn't that nice a company that at least makes an effort to keep staff employed. Sure we'll have to work harder, sure the future is uncertain, but hell I'd rather be at AF than BA, VS, Norwegian, EZY, Ryanair.
4. Transavia can operate out of ORY.
5. The domestic stations losing CDG service is 1.5 - 2 hours on clean fast trains. Probably nicer experience.
6. AF is committed to lessening it's carbon footprint. OK maybe the virus is giving more govt impetus but what's wrong with that?
7. France is France they do it their way - what's wrong with that? Especially when they at least try to protect their employees because I am not sure how long it's going to take to get air travel back.
8. HOP needs restructuring regardless of green endeavors. It is a money loser in the group I can't say how much but changes were coming even before the virus.
9. AF if a huge Boeing customer, just as it is for Airbus. The AF Airbus aircraft chosen were on merit, the politicians just say they pressure AF to buy Airbus but that is just to make themselves look good. AF has done well taking a pass on the Max. Transavia France is all 737-7/8's. Based in LYS and BOD potentially. KLM is mostly Boeing now.
10. For the moment all AF pilot unions have longterm contracts signed. When was the last time that happened?
11. AF was really hitting all cylinders before COVID with strong profits in last quarter of 2019. and for the year I think AFKL made 1.2 billion euros. Hard to imagine socialists can make money, pay workers fairly, invest in reducing carbon foot print, and have a good product.
12. AF/KLM did not pay off their smaller profits to shareholders and management anywhere to the degree that the US3 did. You can't compare executive compensation and share buy backs of AFKL to there American counterparts.


Just scratching the surface here....
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mig17
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Fri May 01, 2020 11:51 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
If Ryanair wanted to fly CDG-LYS (and obtained slots), it would likely be illegal for the French Govt to prevent this.

If Air France "of its own choice out of concern for the environment" decides to sell CDG-LYS only in conjunction with a connecting flight, then that is a decision for Air France. The fact that Air France desperately needs Govt money and the Govt thinks people should not fly CDG-LYS P2P is just a coincidence

Except if you live near Lyon St-Exupery and go near Paris Charles de Gaulle, you will not fly P2P between Lyon and Paris. The TGV between Lyon "Part Dieu" and Paris "gare de Lyon" takes 2h10 to go from the center of Lyon to the centre of Paris.

Same with Bordeaux 2h00 between Paris "Montparnasse" and Bordeaux "St-Jean". And same with Nantes.

The people wanting to go from those town to CDG (TGV station) or ORY (via Massy TGV and 20 minutes in a bus costing 1€90) are mostly connecting passengers to a flight.

The thing is AF and the SNCF (historical french railroad opérator) or another train operator have to developpe a partenairship to keep feeding AF hub,while AF will stop flying domestic from / to Paris. Marseilles, Montpellier, Mulhouse and Clermont-Ferrand, around 3h from Paris in TGV could also be considered to be axed. And AF will concentrate domestic flights where there is no high speed train and for transversal demand.

Now that can also be done on a larger scale in the area of London, Paris, Bruxelles, Amsterdam and maybe even Franckfurt.
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workhorse
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Sat May 02, 2020 12:36 am

Thibault973 wrote:
I don't know who in its right mind would fly Paris to Lyon P2P anyway.


Well, I have recently flown LYS-TLS-CDG and then, two days later, CDG-NCE-LYS to avoid the bloody railway strike!
 
oldJoe
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Sat May 02, 2020 12:50 am

workhorse wrote:
Thibault973 wrote:
I don't know who in its right mind would fly Paris to Lyon P2P anyway.


Well, I have recently flown LYS-TLS-CDG and then, two days later, CDG-NCE-LYS to avoid the bloody railway strike!


Is the "bloody railway strike" happening all year round ? No ! For example , I prefer the train from Luxemburg to Paris at any day given over a flight !
 
workhorse
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Sat May 02, 2020 1:03 am

oldJoe wrote:
Is the "bloody railway strike" happening all year round ?


Nope, but when it does, you are more than happy to have that flight!

If they really go through with this, next time SNCF is on strike, I will book a LYS-LGW-CDG on EasyJet. :)
 
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adambrau
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Sat May 02, 2020 3:14 am

oldJoe wrote:
workhorse wrote:
Thibault973 wrote:
I don't know who in its right mind would fly Paris to Lyon P2P anyway.


Well, I have recently flown LYS-TLS-CDG and then, two days later, CDG-NCE-LYS to avoid the bloody railway strike!


Is the "bloody railway strike" happening all year round ? No ! For example , I prefer the train from Luxemburg to Paris at any day given over a flight !


Yes the French like to strike.

But if it is not the railways, it could be ATC, airport screeners, taxi drivers, subways, etc.

French trains are very well connected to airports and city centers. And trains leave a much smaller carbon imprint on our planet. Who wouldn't want less pollution? For example, before the Channel Tunnel was built Air France and BA flew wide bodies between their respective capitals, several times a day. Once people got used to the fact how much faster and pleasant the train is air travel faded in frequency for O/D traffic. And those who connect via either CDG or LHR can still fly on a much reduced (needed) capacity.

The reality is that HOP is an unprofitable unit of Air France that will be restructured. So making easy train connections to CDG and vv is to me just as pleasant as a short, unprofitable and more polluting flight.

If you really prefer to fly I suppose Transavia France can get you from LYS and BOD to ORY (when it reopens).

My point, I suppose, is that AFKL made a (mere) profit of over 1 billion euros in 2019, so what - half of BA? On the other hand, Heathrow, who first planned to build a third runway in 2003 - is still years away from realizing completion. The British Government and Private Industry are less demanding of their infastructure policy planning. How much time have you personally wasted in life minutes circling to land or taxi out at LHR? I don't believe our airlines need to (or should be limited) as to how profitable they are for stakeholders. Unless it is at the expense of me the traveler. I live in NYC and will happily admit we are even worse than the UK with our infrastructure planning. I think there is a happy medium which France most closely excels at ;)
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Aesma
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Sat May 02, 2020 4:07 am

I flew CDG-LHR recently, for the first time (been to London via the chunnel or to the UK via ship many times), I was connecting on the A380 to SFO, and indeed we made 3 or 4 circles before landing...

About the scheme disallowing flights when train is available, it was talked about last year I think, or maybe the year before, in the National Assembly, so it isn't out of the blue. It was linked to the Yellow Vests unhappy that kerosene isn't taxed, so the idea was to ban all such flights, not just to pressure AF.
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ro1960
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Re: Air France May Have To Permanently Cut Domestic Service by Half to Get Aid

Sat May 02, 2020 10:53 am

adambrau wrote:
[
11. AF was really hitting all cylinders before COVID with strong profits in last quarter of 2019. and for the year I think AFKL made 1.2 billion euros. Hard to imagine socialists can make money, pay workers fairly, invest in reducing carbon foot print, and have a good product.


I'm no financial expert but I think what you're referring to is the operating results, not the profits. See page 21 of the presentation.

Net income is €290 million.
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IWMBH
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Re: Air France May Have To Permanently Cut Domestic Service by Half to Get Aid

Sat May 02, 2020 11:24 am

ro1960 wrote:
adambrau wrote:
[
11. AF was really hitting all cylinders before COVID with strong profits in last quarter of 2019. and for the year I think AFKL made 1.2 billion euros. Hard to imagine socialists can make money, pay workers fairly, invest in reducing carbon foot print, and have a good product.


I'm no financial expert but I think what you're referring to is the operating results, not the profits. See page 21 of the presentation.

Net income is €290 million.


This is true the net profit of AF/KL was €290.000.000 (€420 million in 2018) and the operational result (OR) was €1.2 billion, €264.000.000 down from the year before (2018).
The OR of KLM was €853.000.000 and the OR of AF was €280.000.000.
This means that AF's OR dropped €41.000.000 compared with 2018.

So I wouldn't say that AF was ''really hitting all cylinders'' .
KLM was financially doing much better, and their employees are happy too.
They actually campaigned to keep their CEO.
 
workhorse
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Re: Air France May Have To Permanently Cut Domestic Service by Half to Get Aid

Sat May 02, 2020 11:36 am

AOMlover wrote:
connecting from the TGV to Orly is not convenient (Massy TGV is not that far, but still a 15km ride). There's a lot of connecting passengers flying into Orly in order to catch a flight to the French Overseas Departments, and a train/plane combination through Orly would be extremely inefficient.


Are there any indications as to what AF plans to do with Overseas Departments and Territories flights post-covid? Currently, they are all at CDG as ORY is closed. Will they put them back to ORY when it reopens or keep them at CDG profiting from the reduced traffic there?
 
Jetty
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Re: Air France May Have To Permanently Cut Domestic Service by Half to Get Aid

Sat May 02, 2020 12:14 pm

IWMBH wrote:
ro1960 wrote:
adambrau wrote:
[
11. AF was really hitting all cylinders before COVID with strong profits in last quarter of 2019. and for the year I think AFKL made 1.2 billion euros. Hard to imagine socialists can make money, pay workers fairly, invest in reducing carbon foot print, and have a good product.


I'm no financial expert but I think what you're referring to is the operating results, not the profits. See page 21 of the presentation.

Net income is €290 million.


This is true the net profit of AF/KL was €290.000.000 (€420 million in 2018) and the operational result (OR) was €1.2 billion, €264.000.000 down from the year before (2018).
The OR of KLM was €853.000.000 and the OR of AF was €280.000.000.
This means that AF's OR dropped €41.000.000 compared with 2018.

So I wouldn't say that AF was ''really hitting all cylinders''.

:checkmark: AF net income in 2019 must have been negative and they added hundreds of millions to their debt. The reason why AFKL still made a net profit in 2019 is KL.
 
Amsterdam
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Re: Air France May Have To Permanently Cut Domestic Service by Half to Get Aid

Sat May 02, 2020 1:03 pm

adambrau wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
Newark727 wrote:

So governments are in the wrong for making airlines cut flights, and also in the wrong for making airlines keep making flights, as a condition of getting bailed out (as per one of your other threads, concerning B6.) Are governments expected to give them the money with no strings attached? Because I'd point out that's a standard that we've never held private investors to. Or is your position that the airlines should be allowed to fail? I mean, sure, but that implies another set of questions. Do we want to wipe the board totally clean with every economic shock? I can see that having a certain ideological appeal, but ideologies don't put food on the table. Or do we need to compel businesses to keep a rainy-day fund somehow? It clearly isn't a competitive advantage under ordinary circumstances to have one, given how airlines behaved prior to this whole mess kicking off.


I think it's good that governments have some demands if airlines or any other business need taxpayer money. But, politicians shouldn't use the support for airlines for their own political gains. If there is market demand for flights within France, why force AF to cut them? If there is a market other airlines will jump at the occasion and take the revenue AF would've made, how does this help the French economy or the environment? The lost revenue could've been paid in dividend to the French government.

And it doesn't stop there, the French government told AF to buy Airbus planes. I would be very worried as an investor that a government official decides which plane AF should fly. And although the investments in sustainable air travel is good for the environment, there should be a businesscase behind it to make it truly sustainable.

Government interference in both Air France and KLM can be bad for their long time growth, profitability and their competitive position in the market. And this undermines the whole idea behind the financial support in the first place. I think the concern of governments should be to get the money back for the taxpayer and maybe make some money in the proces, while making AF/KL into a successful company that safeguards French and Dutch interests in the long term.


Just a couple of observations.....

1. AF is going to have to repay all the loans and money it gets from the state. There are strings attached - it's not a blank cheque.
2. AF already had on order a whole bunch of A220 and A350's long before state aid was being discussed. These planes are 20-25% more fuel efficient than a318/9 and 773's. So reduce a few more French Provincial cities with a few more A220's and yes we can make a huge reduction in emissions by 2024. Int'lly we are not ever going to fly the A380 again and the A340's are gone. We have 70 777's of various types many are not flying at the moment and the A350's and perhaps a few 789's could replace half the 777's when order filled.
3. The main reason for the state aid is to support employees and avoid BK. I am getting 85% of my my normal pay. First the company will offer retirement packages, do training and transfer people to stations where they are needed. Wow, isn't that nice a company that at least makes an effort to keep staff employed. Sure we'll have to work harder, sure the future is uncertain, but hell I'd rather be at AF than BA, VS, Norwegian, EZY, Ryanair.
4. Transavia can operate out of ORY.
5. The domestic stations losing CDG service is 1.5 - 2 hours on clean fast trains. Probably nicer experience.
6. AF is committed to lessening it's carbon footprint. OK maybe the virus is giving more govt impetus but what's wrong with that?
7. France is France they do it their way - what's wrong with that? Especially when they at least try to protect their employees because I am not sure how long it's going to take to get air travel back.
8. HOP needs restructuring regardless of green endeavors. It is a money loser in the group I can't say how much but changes were coming even before the virus.
9. AF if a huge Boeing customer, just as it is for Airbus. The AF Airbus aircraft chosen were on merit, the politicians just say they pressure AF to buy Airbus but that is just to make themselves look good. AF has done well taking a pass on the Max. Transavia France is all 737-7/8's. Based in LYS and BOD potentially. KLM is mostly Boeing now.
10. For the moment all AF pilot unions have longterm contracts signed. When was the last time that happened?
11. AF was really hitting all cylinders before COVID with strong profits in last quarter of 2019. and for the year I think AFKL made 1.2 billion euros. Hard to imagine socialists can make money, pay workers fairly, invest in reducing carbon foot print, and have a good product.
12. AF/KLM did not pay off their smaller profits to shareholders and management anywhere to the degree that the US3 did. You can't compare executive compensation and share buy backs of AFKL to there American counterparts.


Just scratching the surface here....


I dont understand that you say this.
AF did not make a net profit in 2019 and even their operational result was low and OR profit margin was way below that of BA KL and LH.
I dont see AF paying back that debt.

Even in the last couple of years which where some of the best in the history of aviation, AF didnt come near anything to be able to pay of such a big debt. And this debt comes on top of older debts by the way.
And 7 billion might not be enough also.

Depending on the rate of industry recover and how AF specificaly will recover and how they cut costs during this crisis and how this new debt will be constructed (how its made up, how much will be banks, how much the state, what timeline to pay off, interest rate etc) there is a scenario certainly possible that AF debts become too big and unpayable. That will mean either bancruptcy and restart or nationalisation.

By no means its seems possible to repay these new debts plus the old ones the way AF is operating. These last best years of aviation history have proved that.
 
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adambrau
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Re: Air France May Have To Permanently Cut Domestic Service by Half to Get Aid

Sat May 02, 2020 2:14 pm

Amsterdam wrote:
adambrau wrote:
IWMBH wrote:

I think it's good that governments have some demands if airlines or any other business need taxpayer money. But, politicians shouldn't use the support for airlines for their own political gains. If there is market demand for flights within France, why force AF to cut them? If there is a market other airlines will jump at the occasion and take the revenue AF would've made, how does this help the French economy or the environment? The lost revenue could've been paid in dividend to the French government.

And it doesn't stop there, the French government told AF to buy Airbus planes. I would be very worried as an investor that a government official decides which plane AF should fly. And although the investments in sustainable air travel is good for the environment, there should be a businesscase behind it to make it truly sustainable.

Government interference in both Air France and KLM can be bad for their long time growth, profitability and their competitive position in the market. And this undermines the whole idea behind the financial support in the first place. I think the concern of governments should be to get the money back for the taxpayer and maybe make some money in the proces, while making AF/KL into a successful company that safeguards French and Dutch interests in the long term.


Just a couple of observations.....

1. AF is going to have to repay all the loans and money it gets from the state. There are strings attached - it's not a blank cheque.
2. AF already had on order a whole bunch of A220 and A350's long before state aid was being discussed. These planes are 20-25% more fuel efficient than a318/9 and 773's. So reduce a few more French Provincial cities with a few more A220's and yes we can make a huge reduction in emissions by 2024. Int'lly we are not ever going to fly the A380 again and the A340's are gone. We have 70 777's of various types many are not flying at the moment and the A350's and perhaps a few 789's could replace half the 777's when order filled.
3. The main reason for the state aid is to support employees and avoid BK. I am getting 85% of my my normal pay. First the company will offer retirement packages, do training and transfer people to stations where they are needed. Wow, isn't that nice a company that at least makes an effort to keep staff employed. Sure we'll have to work harder, sure the future is uncertain, but hell I'd rather be at AF than BA, VS, Norwegian, EZY, Ryanair.
4. Transavia can operate out of ORY.
5. The domestic stations losing CDG service is 1.5 - 2 hours on clean fast trains. Probably nicer experience.
6. AF is committed to lessening it's carbon footprint. OK maybe the virus is giving more govt impetus but what's wrong with that?
7. France is France they do it their way - what's wrong with that? Especially when they at least try to protect their employees because I am not sure how long it's going to take to get air travel back.
8. HOP needs restructuring regardless of green endeavors. It is a money loser in the group I can't say how much but changes were coming even before the virus.
9. AF if a huge Boeing customer, just as it is for Airbus. The AF Airbus aircraft chosen were on merit, the politicians just say they pressure AF to buy Airbus but that is just to make themselves look good. AF has done well taking a pass on the Max. Transavia France is all 737-7/8's. Based in LYS and BOD potentially. KLM is mostly Boeing now.
10. For the moment all AF pilot unions have longterm contracts signed. When was the last time that happened?
11. AF was really hitting all cylinders before COVID with strong profits in last quarter of 2019. and for the year I think AFKL made 1.2 billion euros. Hard to imagine socialists can make money, pay workers fairly, invest in reducing carbon foot print, and have a good product.
12. AF/KLM did not pay off their smaller profits to shareholders and management anywhere to the degree that the US3 did. You can't compare executive compensation and share buy backs of AFKL to there American counterparts.


Just scratching the surface here....


I dont understand that you say this.
AF did not make a net profit in 2019 and even their operational result was low and OR profit margin was way below that of BA KL and LH.
I dont see AF paying back that debt.

Even in the last couple of years which where some of the best in the history of aviation, AF didnt come near anything to be able to pay of such a big debt. And this debt comes on top of older debts by the way.
And 7 billion might not be enough also.

Depending on the rate of industry recover and how AF specificaly will recover and how they cut costs during this crisis and how this new debt will be constructed (how its made up, how much will be banks, how much the state, what timeline to pay off, interest rate etc) there is a scenario certainly possible that AF debts become too big and unpayable. That will mean either bancruptcy and restart or nationalisation.

By no means its seems possible to repay these new debts plus the old ones the way AF is operating. These last best years of aviation history have proved that.


Amsterdam,

These are the numbers an analyst at Citibank gave me for FY2019. I will take a look again. I think we all can't possibly know in our hearts what lies ahead. I think in a few months we may begin to understand the true scope of the virus impact.

EBIT for FY’19 for the company was EUR1,141mn (vs. a consensus of EUR1,098mn) driven by the net effect of resilient full-year passenger pricing (RASK constant currency) of -0.4% YoY (-0.2% YoY in Q4’19), better group unit cost performance (at constant fuel) of -0.9% YoY (-1.5% YoY in Q4’19) and worse than expected cargo performance.

In terms of outlook, we note the company has stated following:

Costs: “Unit cost reduction of between -1% and 0% at constant currency and fuel price.” In line, albeit as capacity comes down it will most like be at the 0% end of the range.
Capex: “The Group plans capital expenditures of EUR3.6bn for 2020.” In line.
Leverage: “Net debt/ EBITDA ratio of circa 1.5x.” In line.
Coronavirus: “Based on the Group announcement regarding Covid-19 (suspension of China operations in February March and possible resumption of operations starting from April 2020), the high-level estimated impact on operating result is of between -150 and -200 million euros for February to April 2020.” We have seen worse estimates in the market. The fact that management has quantified the impact to allow analysts to make it a one-off, we think will be taken well.
Fuel: “The 2020 fuel bill is expected to decrease by 300 million euros compared to 2019 to 5.2 billion euros, based on the forward curve of 14 February 2020.”

We also believe that the year has start well on pricing on an underlying basis, ex-Coronavirus (if indeed that is a feasible calculation).

The bottom line is that the fuel tailwind is essentially (for now) more than offsetting the Coronavirus impact.

We note consensus EBIT for 2020 is EUR1,273mn, which we think will remain broadly unchanged post today (as we wait to see whether the Coronavirus has detrimental impacts post April).

As investors digest this report and their own earnings bridges, we see enthusiasm building on the upside in the coming days as observers begin to appreciate that the underlying plan is still on track, in the face of a share price that has underperformed.
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adambrau
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Sat May 02, 2020 2:44 pm

https://www.airfranceklm.com/sites/default/files/afklm_results_q4-2019_en.pdf


Here are the financial breakdowns per airline on page 22. I think even though Air France had a small net loss in Q4 it was an improvement over 4Q 2018. And yes clearly KL is making the majority of net profit for the year. The analyst wrote the note on February 20th so about 3 weeks before operations became severely impacted by the virus. But finishing off the year there was optimism that Air France was finding it's footing and pilot contracts were all approved for multiple years. The signs of AF turnaround were there just before the black swan event.
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Thibault973
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Sat May 02, 2020 5:44 pm

[quote="adambrau"

French trains are very well connected to airports and city centers. And trains leave a much smaller carbon imprint on our planet. Who wouldn't want less pollution? For example, before the Channel Tunnel was built Air France and BA flew wide bodies between their respective capitals, several times a day. Once people got used to the fact how much faster and pleasant the train is air travel faded in frequency for O/D traffic. And those who connect via either CDG or LHR can still fly on a much reduced (needed) capacity. [/quote]

Yet U2 still has 8 flights a day and VY 2 between Paris and London that caters exclusively to O/D traffic. I myself have flown most often than not when going from Paris to London as air fares tend to be wayyyyy cheaper than the Eurostar but it is soooo inconvenient that I have switched to the latter a while ago.
 
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Mon May 04, 2020 4:57 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52527517

A French government plan to rescue Air France is contingent on the carrier scrapping domestic flights, the country's economy minister has said.
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ro1960
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Mon May 04, 2020 6:25 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52527517

A French government plan to rescue Air France is contingent on the carrier scrapping domestic flights, the country's economy minister has said.


I usually place BBC high on the media scale but here they got it wrong.

What Le Maire said:

"Without giving the number of lines that could be deleted, Bruno Le Maire takes for example the Bordeaux-Paris line: it is justified in only one case, "if you join the hub [airport connection platform] of Paris, to make then an international trip, a transatlantic flight or a flight to Asia. But in all other cases, if it is only to gain an hour [compared to the train] that you risk losing elsewhere transportation to the airport is not worth the cost. The cost in terms of carbon emissions is too high."

Article in French
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mercure1
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Mon May 04, 2020 6:41 pm

Air France has sold and leaseback for 34 months, 10 A318 and 6 A319 aircraft with U.S. investment group FTAI Aviation

https://www.airlinerwatch.com/2020/05/a ... ck-16.html

So I would expect these frames to depart as A220 orders start arriving.
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ro1960
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Thu May 07, 2020 6:09 am

"The Air France-KLM group suffered the first effects of the Covid-19 on its traffic with a net loss of 1.8 billion euros in the first quarter."
Article in French

Also AF to open talks with unions in June about job cuts.
Air France job cuts set to test CEO Smith's consensual style
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factsonly
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Thu May 07, 2020 6:47 am

From Financial Q1 2020 Report:

- Air France decided on 6 May to the early phase-out the Airbus 340.
- Capacity plan for 2021 at least -20% (versus 2019)
- Reduce the volume of CO2 emissions from French Domestic flights by 50% by the end of 2024 (versus 2019 )
- A drastic reduction in all domestic routes on which there is an alternative by train lasting less than 2 hours and 30 minutes (except for flights feeding Paris-CDG)
- Objective of 2% incorporation of sustainable alternative fuels by 2025, as set out in the national roadmap
- 50% reduction in CO2 emissions per passenger/km on its entire network, in 2030 compared with 2005.


Q1 2020 Capacity

AF: Capacity -11.7% Revenues 3,016 -17.8% Ops Results -536 Change -287 -17.8% Ops Margin -11.0 pt Net Debt 4,342 +401
KLM: Capacity -10.0% Revenues 2,140 -9.7% Ops Result -275 Change -228 -12.9% Ops Margin -10.9 pt Net Debt 2,542 +17
AF/KLM Group: Capacity -11.0% Revenues 5,020 -15.5% Ops results -815 Cange -529 -16.2% Ops Margin -11.4 pt Net Debt 6,584 +437

https://www.airfranceklm.com/sites/defa ... _final.pdf
 
PANAMsterdam
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Thu May 07, 2020 7:53 am

factsonly wrote:
From Financial Q1 2020 Report:

- Air France decided on 6 May to the early phase-out the Airbus 340.

I had missed this news, but i'm not surprised and welcome this very much. Good to see less 'Joon' planes around. Don't be shocked if the only flights their A380's are going to make in the coming months are to the desert.

factsonly wrote:
- A drastic reduction in all domestic routes on which there is an alternative by train lasting less than 2 hours and 30 minutes (except for flights feeding Paris-CDG)


Ehm.. aren't all domestic flights basically feeders to CDG? Or will this be a huge cut to Hop's operations at places like LYS and NCE?

factsonly wrote:
- Objective of 2% incorporation of sustainable alternative fuels by 2025, as set out in the national roadmap


That should be doable, their friends in Amsterdam have experience with bio fuel and are experimenting a lot with it.

factsonly wrote:
- 50% reduction in CO2 emissions per passenger/km on its entire network, in 2030 compared with 2005.


That's gonna be difficult, not sure how AF can achieve this. Surely, by 2030 the A340's/a380's will be gone but only the A318's/A319's are currently on schedule of being replaces by A220's, the A320CEO/A321CEO and A330CEO's are not. Have my doubts that they can all be replaced in 9 years from now. Where does the money come from to buy these new replacements and secondly: Airbus probably does not have a lot of slots left to build them.
factsonly wrote:
AF: Capacity -11.7% Revenues 3,016 -17.8% Ops Results -536 Change -287 -17.8% Ops Margin -11.0 pt Net Debt 4,342 +401
KLM: Capacity -10.0% Revenues 2,140 -9.7% Ops Result -275 Change -228 -12.9% Ops Margin -10.9 pt Net Debt 2,542 +17


Again a better performance by KLM than AF. Probably because AF doesn't have The Queen of the Skies anymore to do some heavy cargo lifting :duck:
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ro1960
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Thu May 07, 2020 9:40 am

PANAMsterdam wrote:

factsonly wrote:
- A drastic reduction in all domestic routes on which there is an alternative by train lasting less than 2 hours and 30 minutes (except for flights feeding Paris-CDG)


This has been discussed further up the thread. :-)
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PANAMsterdam
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Thu May 07, 2020 9:45 am

ro1960 wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:

factsonly wrote:
- A drastic reduction in all domestic routes on which there is an alternative by train lasting less than 2 hours and 30 minutes (except for flights feeding Paris-CDG)


This has been discussed further up the thread. :-)


Sorry! I'm following one too many AFKL threads.
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airhansa
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Thu May 07, 2020 10:14 am

PANAMsterdam wrote:
ro1960 wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:



This has been discussed further up the thread. :-)


Sorry! I'm following one too many AFKL threads.


They don't need to have feeder flights into CDG if there are alternatives by train. Changing planes and changing trains at the same airport isn't a major difference, except if you need to carry a lot of luggage, but luggage ore-drop-off services can be arranged as well if the company is smart enough.
 
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Thu May 07, 2020 12:54 pm

airhansa wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:
ro1960 wrote:

This has been discussed further up the thread. :-)


Sorry! I'm following one too many AFKL threads.


They don't need to have feeder flights into CDG if there are alternatives by train. Changing planes and changing trains at the same airport isn't a major difference, except if you need to carry a lot of luggage, but luggage ore-drop-off services can be arranged as well if the company is smart enough.


Not all cites have TGV service and not all cities with TGV service have links to CDG. Hence the need for an air-train cooperation strategic plan. This could be one of the conditions for the government aid to AF and SNCF (French national railways).
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airhansa
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Thu May 07, 2020 4:10 pm

ro1960 wrote:
airhansa wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:

Sorry! I'm following one too many AFKL threads.


They don't need to have feeder flights into CDG if there are alternatives by train. Changing planes and changing trains at the same airport isn't a major difference, except if you need to carry a lot of luggage, but luggage ore-drop-off services can be arranged as well if the company is smart enough.


Not all cites have TGV service and not all cities with TGV service have links to CDG. Hence the need for an air-train cooperation strategic plan. This could be one of the conditions for the government aid to AF and SNCF (French national railways).


I agree with that part, but the statement suggests that all feeder flights into CDG would be allowed regardless of whether there is a direct train alternative within two hours. I would say that all flights that can be replaced with a two or three hour train journey should not cancelled.
 
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Thu May 07, 2020 7:16 pm

factsonly wrote:
- A drastic reduction in all domestic routes on which there is an alternative by train lasting less than 2 hours and 30 minutes (except for flights feeding Paris-CDG)


So, does this mean that ORY-FDF, PTP, RUN and CAY will move to CDG (or rather stay there since they are currently at CDG because of the ORY closure)?
 
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Thu May 07, 2020 9:17 pm

Announced as part of today's earning release, AF has deferred 3 A350 deliveries due this year till 2021. Also one 787 due in June will be delayed to later this year result of Boeing production slowdown.

AFKL will present a revised business plan to include fleet update likely by mid-July per Ben Smith.
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Sun May 10, 2020 4:19 pm

Secretary of State for Transport, Jean-Baptiste Djebbari announced the opening of Orly could be possible by June 26.
He asked airlines including the 9 that have a base at ORY to submit proposed schedules by June 15.
The government will require that by opening time harmonized health measures with European and Mediterranean neighbors are adopted to ensure people can safely go on summer vacations.

https://www.boursorama.com/actualite-ec ... cdb317542e
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Blerg
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Sun May 10, 2020 4:27 pm

Is Air France completely grounded or are they operating some flights right now?
 
Eikie
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Sun May 10, 2020 4:44 pm

Blerg wrote:
Is Air France completely grounded or are they operating some flights right now?

They are flying somewhat. Both "regular" acheduled flights as repatriation flights for the government.

About 5 tot 10% of the normal amount, if I recall correctly.
 
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Sun May 10, 2020 4:56 pm

1) I personally think that all feeder flights within three hours direct train should not be allowed, and that BRU should be made an insignificant airport.

2) Do you think that if KLM bought SAS under its fold, and closed the current SAS long-haul hub of CPH by transferring the flights to AMS, that it would be successful? The vast majority of long haul flights on SAS fly out of CPH and most of these are to the Americas.
 
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Sun May 10, 2020 5:33 pm

Blerg wrote:
Is Air France completely grounded or are they operating some flights right now?


They still very much operate. Longhaul service continues on key routes such as ATL, CAY, ABJ, COU, DXB, FDF, LAX, MEX, YUL, JFK, PTP, GIG, RUN, GRU, NRT, FDF, etc.
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Blerg
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Sun May 10, 2020 6:54 pm

Thank you. How accurate is their current timetable for June? I am looking at some flights to BEG and I see they have double daily flights. Don't know if they will go ahead with them especially now with the state of emergency extended into July.
 
airbuster
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Mon May 11, 2020 7:45 am

Some KL A330 facts as of now:

- Lease or financing agreements on the 330 fleet havent been changed as breach of contract penalties are too high.
- CEO has stated to retain the 330’s as a hedge if the market recovers faster than expected and not be short on capacity in that case.
- Thursday it's expected to have more info on possible service resumption.
- No A350’s at KLM yet ;P
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Thibault973
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Tue May 19, 2020 5:38 pm

Blerg wrote:
Thank you. How accurate is their current timetable for June? I am looking at some flights to BEG and I see they have double daily flights. Don't know if they will go ahead with them especially now with the state of emergency extended into July.


They said today that they expect to operate 15% of their schedule by the end of June, so double daily to BEG sound very unlikely.
 
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Tue May 19, 2020 8:23 pm

airbuster wrote:
- No A350’s at KLM yet ;P

As part of Ben Smith's fleet rationalization plans, all A350s will be allocated to and operated by AF. KL will have Dreamliners (-9s and -10s). AF will keep a few 789s that had been delivered to it prior to the decision, but all future 789s for the group will be delivered to KL.
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workhorse
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Tue May 19, 2020 9:52 pm

EddieDude wrote:
AF will keep a few 789s that had been delivered to it prior to the decision, but all future 789s for the group will be delivered to KL.


Strange decision. These 789s are now oddballs in the fleet, they are flown by a separate pilot group (because there's too few of them to make all 777 pilots fly them often enough to keep their rating). Dump them! Since KLM loves Boeings so much, transfer them there to accelerate the KL 330s' retirement. With time, the AF 777s could be replaced with 359s and 351s making AF completely Boeing-free.
 
Blerg
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Re: Air France KLM - Master Thread

Wed May 20, 2020 5:06 am

Thibault973 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Thank you. How accurate is their current timetable for June? I am looking at some flights to BEG and I see they have double daily flights. Don't know if they will go ahead with them especially now with the state of emergency extended into July.


They said today that they expect to operate 15% of their schedule by the end of June, so double daily to BEG sound very unlikely.


BEG, ZAG and SOF were moved to July, LJU and BUD however are resuming in June.
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