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tvh
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Could KLM change their 77W order to 77F?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:57 am

Now that there is more demand for freight than passangers could they change the order or are the planes allready being build. maybe it is a good idee for Boeing to build more 777F instead of 787's.
Last edited by SQ22 on Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Typo fixed
 
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afterburner
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:41 pm

How many 777W orders backlog are there?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:52 pm

afterburner wrote:
How many 777W orders backlog are there?

Per Wikipedia, there are more 777-300ER to be delivered to KLM.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/KLM

There are 19 from all airlines per Wikipedia, plus on 77L. There are also 50 777F in the backlog.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... deliveries

The bulk of the 777 backlog is the 777x.

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boris888
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:53 pm

wish full thinking, especially in view of cash-involved. In few months cargo bonanza is over , and yield return to pre 2020 levels.
 
IWMBH
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:53 pm

If pricing doesn't matter, yes of course. But, I don't think Boeing is in a hurry to convert the order. There aren't that many 777-300ERs left on order (I think 3 (?)) and many of the parts for these aircraft have been ordered and someone has to pay for them.

Besides, the reason freighter aircraft are in high demand right now is the fact that a lot of passenger aircraft are grounded. This results in the loss of belly capacity what explains the higher need for freighter. But, there is no proof that this demands continues to exist when airlines resume normal operations.

The only reason that the 777F would be a good idea for KLM is if they decide to replace all 744F's with 777F. But I wouldn't hope for it, it looks like KLM isn't to keen about having full-freighter planes in it's portfolio.
 
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flee
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:58 pm

Buying aircraft is not a spur of the moment decision - KLM operates its aircraft until end of life (maybe 25 years). In that time the aviation industry will change many times. So to change your order due to short term factors is not really a good idea. The right decision now is probably to delay their 744 Combos' retirement and push out their 77W deliveries or convert them to 777X.
 
FlyingHonu001
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:01 pm

KL has two 77W on order which will eventually be owned through a leasing company. They were ordered in mid-2019. It was originally intended for temporary replacement capacity during the 2020/2021 phase-out of the 744. Would be very costly to do airframe conversions right now for KL
 
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afterburner
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:11 pm

IWMBH wrote:
Besides, the reason freighter aircraft are in high demand right now is the fact that a lot of passenger aircraft are grounded. This results in the loss of belly capacity what explains the higher need for freighter.

Airlines have already been using their passenger aircraft as freighters. Not only inside the cargo holds, they also put boxes on cabin seats and secure them with nets.
 
E90SLAM
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:29 pm

Simple answer is no, unless health experts determine the pandemic will last a few decades.
airlines plan their fleets for the next 5, 10-20+ years, not the current demand or even near future (1-2 years).

So if KLM converted to 77F, then the pandemic ended or softened in later 2020. While the orders are still in production, they will need to re-order 77X if 77W is no longer available and they strapped or had to sell the extra 77F in hand.
 
tvh
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:43 pm

boris888 wrote:
wish full thinking, especially in view of cash-involved. In few months cargo bonanza is over , and yield return to pre 2020 levels.


The carona crisis may be over in a few months. But passenger traffic will be lower than before the crises, which will mean less belly space. When factories restart production they will find out there is a shortage of some items, because supplier where down too. So they want the missing items quick. It will take much longer before supply chain is normal again. Therefor a think Cargo demand is going to be higher for a much longer time.

So build more freighters the coming two years and less passenger aircraft. After that it can be reversed back. In a time frame of 5 year the number of freighters build can be the same.
Total number of aircraft build will still be lower than originally planed
Last edited by tvh on Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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GCT64
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:52 pm

tvh wrote:
boris888 wrote:
wish full thinking, especially in view of cash-involved. In few months cargo bonanza is over , and yield return to pre 2020 levels.


The carona crisis may be over in a few months. But passenger traffic will be lower than before the crises, which will mean less baily space. When factories restart production they will find out there is a shortage of some items, because supplier where down too. So they want the missing items quick. It will take much longer before supply chain is normal again. Therefor a think Cargo demand is going to be higher for a much longer time.

So build more freighters the coming two years and less passenger aircraft. After that it can be reversed back. In a time frame of 5 year the number of freighters build can be the same.
Total number of aircraft build will still be lower than originally planed


But the LF of belly space was quite low prior to the crisis, so even if only ~50-60% of passenger flights returned to operation post-crisis then there would still probably be enough belly space to cover all the air freight needs
Flown in: A20N,A21N,A30B,A306,A310,A319,A320,A321,A332,A333,A343,A346,A359,A388,BA11,BU31,(..56 more types..),VC10,WESX
 
IWMBH
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:30 pm

afterburner wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
Besides, the reason freighter aircraft are in high demand right now is the fact that a lot of passenger aircraft are grounded. This results in the loss of belly capacity what explains the higher need for freighter.

Airlines have already been using their passenger aircraft as freighters. Not only inside the cargo holds, they also put boxes on cabin seats and secure them with nets.


Yeah? Whats your point?
There is less supply than there is demand so airlines and airlines are using their passenger aircraft for freight.
But, if every passenger plane was operating normally there would be enough supply because there would be enough space for freight in their belly's.
That doesn't mean that full-freighters are in much higher demand now because they are much better in hauling cargo.
 
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afterburner
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 3:16 pm

IWMBH wrote:
afterburner wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
Besides, the reason freighter aircraft are in high demand right now is the fact that a lot of passenger aircraft are grounded. This results in the loss of belly capacity what explains the higher need for freighter.

Airlines have already been using their passenger aircraft as freighters. Not only inside the cargo holds, they also put boxes on cabin seats and secure them with nets.


Yeah? Whats your point?
There is less supply than there is demand so airlines and airlines are using their passenger aircraft for freight.
But, if every passenger plane was operating normally there would be enough supply because there would be enough space for freight in their belly's.
That doesn't mean that full-freighters are in much higher demand now because they are much better in hauling cargo.

I mean, I want to know how much higher. I assume the amount of cargo needs to be transported during this Covid-19 pandemic is lower since industries are not producing in their full capacities (if not shutting down at all). So the demand is somewhat lower as well.
 
FGITD
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 3:32 pm

IWMBH wrote:

Yeah? Whats your point?
There is less supply than there is demand so airlines and airlines are using their passenger aircraft for freight.
But, if every passenger plane was operating normally there would be enough supply because there would be enough space for freight in their belly's.
That doesn't mean that full-freighters are in much higher demand now because they are much better in hauling cargo.


Great point that I think many are missing.

Freight demand isn't much higher, if at all higher, for the moment. There's just so few planes flying.

Take KLM, given this thread. Ordinarily KL cargo will fly on DL, AF, or KL flights. Currently there are 8 aircraft headed to north America between those 3. Under normal circumstances that wouldn't even cover just JFK.

If the freight demand to any particular destination was sufficient to warrant a 777F, they'd be using any aircraft they could right now.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:23 pm

The other thing to consider: how much longer does KLM plan to operate the B744 freighter? There are four remaining freighters on the active roster: PH-CKA/B/C (Boeing 747-400(ER) freighters), and PH-MPS (Boeing 747-400(BCF), Martinair livery). PH-MPS is 30 years old, and PH-CKA/B/C are approaching 18.
 
Kilopond
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:00 pm

FGITD wrote:
[...]Freight demand isn't much higher, if at all higher, for the moment.[...]


Indeed it is LOWER than it was a year ago. Some air cargo streams have even shrunk dramatically, for instance flowers.

But the logistics sector in general is more CHAOTIC than ever before. Displaced empty containers as well as displaced on-duty/off-duty seafarers all over the world are huge problems that will not be completely solved anytime soon.
 
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BasilFawlty
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:52 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
The other thing to consider: how much longer does KLM plan to operate the B744 freighter? There are four remaining freighters on the active roster: PH-CKA/B/C (Boeing 747-400(ER) freighters), and PH-MPS (Boeing 747-400(BCF), Martinair livery). PH-MPS is 30 years old, and PH-CKA/B/C are approaching 18.

According to insiders they're satisfied with the three ERF's. They have been looking for a fourth one for a while now to replace the BCF, but there's not much available.
'Every year donkeys and mules kill more people than plane crashes'
 
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leleko747
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:45 pm

BasilFawlty wrote:
According to insiders they're satisfied with the three ERF's. They have been looking for a fourth one for a while now to replace the BCF, but there's not much available.


Funny to think they once had a 4th B747-400ERF.
PH-CKD left the fleet in 2014 and is now flying for Air Bridge Cargo as VQ-BWW.
I wonder when people will understand:
Embraer 190 or simply E190, not ERJ-190. E-Jets are NOT ERJs!
Boeing 747-8, not Boeing 747-800. Same goes for 787.
Airbus A320, not Airbus 320.
Airbii does not exist.
 
LupineChemist
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:03 am

Air traffic tends to go with the real economy.

So less air traffic, less cargo overall to ship.

Even as we are right now cargo loads are going down as economies are collapsing.
 
tvh
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:17 pm

LupineChemist wrote:
Air traffic tends to go with the real economy.

So less air traffic, less cargo overall to ship.

Even as we are right now cargo loads are going down as economies are collapsing.


I think you are wrong there. In a crisis there are less passengers, but much need for goods. When everything starts again, we will found out some things are missing.
 
Jomar777
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:56 pm

tvh wrote:
LupineChemist wrote:
Air traffic tends to go with the real economy.

So less air traffic, less cargo overall to ship.

Even as we are right now cargo loads are going down as economies are collapsing.


I think you are wrong there. In a crisis there are less passengers, but much need for goods. When everything starts again, we will found out some things are missing.


You should consider the posts here.

Freight capacity is NOT increasing as much as you think. There's a lot of things that do not circulate now.

When COVID19 does eases off, freight will increase but will still far off the present capacity. Why do you think that, pre COVID19, we did not have a flurry of sales for the B748F? Why was Boeing comfortable with their backlog levels for freight?

Besides, you miss a crucial point apart from finance (which is crucial and you missed anyway...): if KLM, for that matter, decides to convert their options to B777F, those will not be ready tomorrow (i.e. 3rd Qtr... for example...). It will take quite a while and, until then, the scenario may change again.
 
tvh
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:41 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
tvh wrote:
LupineChemist wrote:
Air traffic tends to go with the real economy.

So less air traffic, less cargo overall to ship.

Even as we are right now cargo loads are going down as economies are collapsing.


I think you are wrong there. In a crisis there are less passengers, but much need for goods. When everything starts again, we will found out some things are missing.


You should consider the posts here.

Freight capacity is NOT increasing as much as you think. There's a lot of things that do not circulate now.

When COVID19 does eases off, freight will increase but will still far off the present capacity. Why do you think that, pre COVID19, we did not have a flurry of sales for the B748F? Why was Boeing comfortable with their backlog levels for freight?

Besides, you miss a crucial point apart from finance (which is crucial and you missed anyway...): if KLM, for that matter, decides to convert their options to B777F, those will not be ready tomorrow (i.e. 3rd Qtr... for example...). It will take quite a while and, until then, the scenario may change again.


You totaly missed my point, because of the current economic hick ups, there soon will be a shortage of many items, production of many goods have come to a stand still. the current situation is a logistic nightmare which wil take sometime to fully recover.
 
ka
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:05 pm

I think the idea of the opening post is not too far fetched.
LH for example is negotiating for delaying/ converting their B779 order to B77F with deliveries starting end of this year!
In German: <https://www.aero.de/news-34963/Lufthansa-prueft-Ausbau-von-Frachtgeschaeft.html>

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Ka.
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VSMUT
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:20 pm

I can't see KLM getting any 777-200Fs. A handful of 777-300ERSFs on the other hand might seem more realistic. They already have that single Jet Airways airframe. They recently lost the synergy of size of the 747 fleet, and the 777-300ERSF would be about the right size to replace the 747-400Fs. On the downside, the first converted 777s won't be ready for several years, EIS not being before late 2022.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:22 pm

VSMUT wrote:
I can't see KLM getting any 777-200Fs. A handful of 777-300ERSFs on the other hand might seem more realistic. They already have that single Jet Airways airframe. They recently lost the synergy of size of the 747 fleet, and the 777-300ERSF would be about the right size to replace the 747-400Fs. On the downside, the first converted 777s won't be ready for several years, EIS not being before late 2022.


Sure, but what about perhaps, after VT-JEW has fresh checks done on it and is restored to airworthy condition, if KLM isn't interested in inducting the frame into passenger service, that could be an order that KLM could start with, sending that out for a Big Twin conversion. Those B744 freighters are going to be oddballs if KLM is only interested in having two pilot groups by 2025 (when the last of the A330s leaves the fleet).
 
VSMUT
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:43 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
I can't see KLM getting any 777-200Fs. A handful of 777-300ERSFs on the other hand might seem more realistic. They already have that single Jet Airways airframe. They recently lost the synergy of size of the 747 fleet, and the 777-300ERSF would be about the right size to replace the 747-400Fs. On the downside, the first converted 777s won't be ready for several years, EIS not being before late 2022.


Sure, but what about perhaps, after VT-JEW has fresh checks done on it and is restored to airworthy condition, if KLM isn't interested in inducting the frame into passenger service, that could be an order that KLM could start with, sending that out for a Big Twin conversion. Those B744 freighters are going to be oddballs if KLM is only interested in having two pilot groups by 2025 (when the last of the A330s leaves the fleet).


IMO, the work required to fix it up and bring it back to service are so extensive and costly, it will be done from the outset with one or the other in mind. Turning it into a fully configured KLM passenger frame and then turning it into a freighter means ripping out an awful lot of costly work you just fixed, replaced and installed.
 
76er
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:43 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Those B744 freighters are going to be oddballs if KLM is only interested in having two pilot groups by 2025


The KLM 744 freighters are not flown by KLM pilots.
And the envisioned 77W cargo conversion is aimed at the high volume, low weight parcel market. KL freighters fly the heavy stuff and they would be better off with the original 77F.
 
Jomar777
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Re: Could KLM change there 77W order to 777F

Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:27 am

tvh wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
tvh wrote:

I think you are wrong there. In a crisis there are less passengers, but much need for goods. When everything starts again, we will found out some things are missing.


You should consider the posts here.

Freight capacity is NOT increasing as much as you think. There's a lot of things that do not circulate now.

When COVID19 does eases off, freight will increase but will still far off the present capacity. Why do you think that, pre COVID19, we did not have a flurry of sales for the B748F? Why was Boeing comfortable with their backlog levels for freight?

Besides, you miss a crucial point apart from finance (which is crucial and you missed anyway...): if KLM, for that matter, decides to convert their options to B777F, those will not be ready tomorrow (i.e. 3rd Qtr... for example...). It will take quite a while and, until then, the scenario may change again.


You totaly missed my point, because of the current economic hick ups, there soon will be a shortage of many items, production of many goods have come to a stand still. the current situation is a logistic nightmare which wil take sometime to fully recover.


Look around the press and you will see hat logistics (specifically in regards of shipping) is struggling as a business. There is a very reduced level of logistics operations overall and this will "normalize" only after restrictions are at least partially lifted. Shipping will be the first to show signs of recovery and then cargo flying and this is all towards previous levels - not a real increase.

Also, check out the thread about Lufthansa on A.Net which is deciding on swap their B777x order partially to the B777F - this is not certain but the estimation is that, should they do it, their first B777F frame would come only in October...

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