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dcajet
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GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:48 pm

GOL and Boeing announced that they have reached an agreement that includes monetary compensation from Boeing, the cancellation of 34 aircraft from the original order, and greater flexibility to make modifications according to GOL's future fleet needs. The cash amount was not disclosed, as in the case of other agreements signed with different airlines.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/gol ... 82.article
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Ishrion
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:55 pm

Smartwings has also cancelled 5 MAX orders along with 36 more undisclosed cancellations.
 
IWMBH
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:12 am

Still convinced that the 737MAX has a future, Airbus won't be able to built the NEO is large enough numbers fill the demand.
But, the MAX is a expensive lesson for Boeing and hopefully not just for Boeing, but for all industries that try to built a new product on the cheap.

I don't think these MAX cancelations would've taken place if the Corona virus hadn't hit.
I'm sceptical that GOL will operate the A320, so any growth plans must include the MAX.
 
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:27 am

There won't be a lot of demand in the next 5 years. There'll be no demand this year or next. And only small demand in the following years, which Airbus could easily fill.
Wait and you'll see a ton of A32x cancellations as well, as the time of 200+ plane orders are over for a while.
 
IWMBH
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:50 am

calstanford wrote:
There won't be a lot of demand in the next 5 years. There'll be no demand this year or next. And only small demand in the following years, which Airbus could easily fill.
Wait and you'll see a ton of A32x cancellations as well, as the time of 200+ plane orders are over for a while.


I still don't think Airbus is able to fill the demand, even with the economic slow down and the cancelations. The combined the A320 and the 737 have well over 10000 orders.
If Airbus want to deliver 10000 A320's it will take them around 13yrs. That is for most airlines far too long because the economy will be recovered by then.
Even if the a lot of carriers cancel their orders, they need new airplanes at some point.

And most airlines don't want Boeing to pull the plug on the MAX, it will take Boeing 5-10yrs to come up with a true new replacement for the 737.
That will give Airbus a long time monopoly, what do you think what effect this has on the prices?

No I'm absolutely convinced the MAX will fly again and that these orders are not really canceled but more kicked down the line.
GOL's NG's won't last forever and they need more MAXes in the future.
 
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scbriml
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:34 am

IWMBH wrote:
Still convinced that the 737MAX has a future, Airbus won't be able to built the NEO is large enough numbers fill the demand.
But, the MAX is a expensive lesson for Boeing and hopefully not just for Boeing, but for all industries that try to built a new product on the cheap.

I don't think these MAX cancelations would've taken place if the Corona virus hadn't hit.
I'm sceptical that GOL will operate the A320, so any growth plans must include the MAX.


MAX will RTS and still be purchased by airlines.

GOL still has a large number of MAX on order, despite this cancellation of 34 frames. They will eventually replace all their NGs with MAX, but thanks to Covid-19, it will take quite a bit longer than previously planned.
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Curiousflyer
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:37 pm

I hope Boeing can offer similar deals to its other clients, develop a new airplane and move on from the Max. I doubt they would get many new orders for that antiquated thing, their way out is to still come up with a brand new airplane ASAP. They would then offer clients a way to convert existing orders to it, delaying the deliveries and offering a good plan to extend the lives of the earlier safer models.
 
Asiaflyer
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:01 pm

IWMBH wrote:
calstanford wrote:
There won't be a lot of demand in the next 5 years. There'll be no demand this year or next. And only small demand in the following years, which Airbus could easily fill.
Wait and you'll see a ton of A32x cancellations as well, as the time of 200+ plane orders are over for a while.


I still don't think Airbus is able to fill the demand, even with the economic slow down and the cancelations. The combined the A320 and the 737 have well over 10000 orders.
If Airbus want to deliver 10000 A320's it will take them around 13yrs. That is for most airlines far too long because the economy will be recovered by then.
Even if the a lot of carriers cancel their orders, they need new airplanes at some point.

And most airlines don't want Boeing to pull the plug on the MAX, it will take Boeing 5-10yrs to come up with a true new replacement for the 737.
That will give Airbus a long time monopoly, what do you think what effect this has on the prices?

No I'm absolutely convinced the MAX will fly again and that these orders are not really canceled but more kicked down the line.
GOL's NG's won't last forever and they need more MAXes in the future.

Price is fixed for the firm orders Airbus has in their orderbook for the next 5-6 years, so Airbus would not gain much if Boeing gave up on MAX and went for a clean sheet NB design instead. Airbus would eventually be forced to spend a fortune on a new design themselves down the road.
Leasing companies would on the other hand see their assets gain a lot of value and would be the big winner in my opinion.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:13 pm

So, we've got a carrier, in the midst of the sharpest downturn in aviation since WW II, that didn't have any money BEFORE the pandemic, that has force majeure because of the MAX grounding and Boeing's failure to deliver. This is an opportunistic cancellation to get out of aircraft they can't afford and don't need. How is anybody surprised by a cancellation? You don't see Gol announcing orders of A320neos nor A220s for the same delivery period, do you?
 
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zkojq
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:21 pm

How long until people try and spin this as a good thing for the MAX program due to better near term availability vs it's rival?

dcajet wrote:
GOL and Boeing announced that they have reached an agreement that includes monetary compensation from Boeing, the cancellation of 34 aircraft from the original order, and greater flexibility to make modifications according to GOL's future fleet needs.


Fascinating. I was told less than a week ago that an airline cancelling some MAXs meant that they would have significantly less contractual scope to cancel more. :spin:
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TW870
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:21 pm

I think the GOL cancellation is evidence that two things are going to happen:

1. Some airlines will use the COVID downturn and the MAX grounding to get out from under a junk airplane. Maybe this will be drastic in some cases. I have wondered if AA could dump the MAX, using the downturn to restructure in such a way as to make the narrowbody fleet centered on the 321neo for the next decade or so. But in most cases it would be smaller operators opting out of the MAX and heading to the 320neo series, 220, or just sending existing aircraft back through HMVs.

2. The MAX will get certified and return to service. This all comes down to cash flow at Boeing. There is no way in hell, especially with a widebody slump, they can afford to scrap the MAX and go clean sheet alone, because without constant MAX deliveries there just won't be enough cash to keep the operation going. The A v. B duopoly allows both plane makers to move slow on technology, and take mediocre airplanes to the bank. Neither company wants to work on a breakthrough right now, because margins would be lower than on the two warmed over airplanes that are on the market now.
 
IWMBH
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:38 pm

TW870 wrote:
I think the GOL cancellation is evidence that two things are going to happen:

1. Some airlines will use the COVID downturn and the MAX grounding to get out from under a junk airplane. Maybe this will be drastic in some cases. I have wondered if AA could dump the MAX, using the downturn to restructure in such a way as to make the narrowbody fleet centered on the 321neo for the next decade or so. But in most cases it would be smaller operators opting out of the MAX and heading to the 320neo series, 220, or just sending existing aircraft back through HMVs.


I think that AA could've dropped the MAX-orders if they wanted to.
They ordered lots of 787's, and they could've probably swapped them for 737 orders.
 
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Polot
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:47 pm

zkojq wrote:
How long until people try and spin this as a good thing for the MAX program due to better near term availability vs it's rival?

dcajet wrote:
GOL and Boeing announced that they have reached an agreement that includes monetary compensation from Boeing, the cancellation of 34 aircraft from the original order, and greater flexibility to make modifications according to GOL's future fleet needs.


Fascinating. I was told less than a week ago that an airline cancelling some MAXs meant that they would have significantly less contractual scope to cancel more. :spin:

Modifications doesn’t necessarily mean cancelations. “greater flexibility to make modifications” can easily mean better deferment terms or ability to switch between variants. GOL has/had 737-10s on order for example, they may not want planes that size any time soon in the future depending on how things shake out
 
Blerg
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:10 pm

So how many firm orders do they have now and how many have been cancelled so far?
 
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zkojq
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:11 pm

Polot wrote:
zkojq wrote:
How long until people try and spin this as a good thing for the MAX program due to better near term availability vs it's rival?

dcajet wrote:
GOL and Boeing announced that they have reached an agreement that includes monetary compensation from Boeing, the cancellation of 34 aircraft from the original order, and greater flexibility to make modifications according to GOL's future fleet needs.


Fascinating. I was told less than a week ago that an airline cancelling some MAXs meant that they would have significantly less contractual scope to cancel more. :spin:

Modifications doesn’t necessarily mean cancelations. “greater flexibility to make modifications” can easily mean better deferment terms or ability to switch between variants. GOL has/had 737-10s on order for example, they may not want planes that size any time soon in the future depending on how things shake out


Boeing has always parroted the line about customers being free to switch between different variants of the MAX. It's their supposed reason for not listening the breakdown of MAX orders by variant.
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geologyrocks
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:13 pm

Not surprised by any cancellation. Demand for new airplanes is going to be incredibly weak for the next several years.
 
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Polot
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:18 pm

zkojq wrote:
Polot wrote:
zkojq wrote:
How long until people try and spin this as a good thing for the MAX program due to better near term availability vs it's rival?



Fascinating. I was told less than a week ago that an airline cancelling some MAXs meant that they would have significantly less contractual scope to cancel more. :spin:

Modifications doesn’t necessarily mean cancelations. “greater flexibility to make modifications” can easily mean better deferment terms or ability to switch between variants. GOL has/had 737-10s on order for example, they may not want planes that size any time soon in the future depending on how things shake out


Boeing has always parroted the line about customers being free to switch between different variants of the MAX. It's their supposed reason for not listening the breakdown of MAX orders by variant.

But Boeing may have given them better pricing/terms on when they have to make a variant decision without having to pay any extra penalties, how often they can switch etc.

Also some of their orders may not have had the -10 built into the contract, if signed before that variant’s launch and that plane, and switching to/from it, may now be included with those orders.
Last edited by Polot on Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
beechnut
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:46 pm

TW870 wrote:
I think the GOL cancellation is evidence that two things are going to happen:

1. Some airlines will use the COVID downturn and the MAX grounding to get out from under a junk airplane.


I don't think the GOL order is evidence of that. If they had cancelled *all* outstanding MAX orders and replaced them with something else, I would agree with you. But all they did was *reduce* their order.

I don't think it's evidence of using the downturn to get out of a junk airplane (though I agree it's a junk airplane), I think it's evidence that airlines are both using the downturn to right-size their orders that may have been overly ambitious to begin with, or are right-sizing their orders because they see a depressed market for a very long time that modifies the underlying assumptions used to justify the order in the first place.

That said I'd love to see AC (and others) cancel their MAX, and replace them with the same capacity but distributed in an A321NEO/LR/XLR and A220-300 (and maybe -500) mix. Not only would that be modern in the sense of average fleet age, but modern in the sense of being the best available technology, which the MAX surely isn't.

Beech
 
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:55 pm

dcajet wrote:
GOL and Boeing announced that they have reached an agreement that includes monetary compensation from Boeing, the cancellation of 34 aircraft from the original order, and greater flexibility to make modifications according to GOL's future fleet needs. The cash amount was not disclosed, as in the case of other agreements signed with different airlines.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/gol ... 82.article


Another question, GOL signed a lease for 11 MAXes from Avolon. Are these still to be leased from Avolon?
 
asr0dzjq
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:55 pm

IWMBH wrote:
calstanford wrote:
There won't be a lot of demand in the next 5 years. There'll be no demand this year or next. And only small demand in the following years, which Airbus could easily fill.
Wait and you'll see a ton of A32x cancellations as well, as the time of 200+ plane orders are over for a while.


I still don't think Airbus is able to fill the demand, even with the economic slow down and the cancelations. The combined the A320 and the 737 have well over 10000 orders.
If Airbus want to deliver 10000 A320's it will take them around 13yrs. That is for most airlines far too long because the economy will be recovered by then.
Even if the a lot of carriers cancel their orders, they need new airplanes at some point.

And most airlines don't want Boeing to pull the plug on the MAX, it will take Boeing 5-10yrs to come up with a true new replacement for the 737.
That will give Airbus a long time monopoly, what do you think what effect this has on the prices?

No I'm absolutely convinced the MAX will fly again and that these orders are not really canceled but more kicked down the line.
GOL's NG's won't last forever and they need more MAXes in the future.

$1 billion for an A319neo... oh boy...
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:35 pm

scbriml wrote:
MAX will RTS and still be purchased by airlines.

GOL still has a large number of MAX on order, despite this cancellation of 34 frames. They will eventually replace all their NGs with MAX, but thanks to Covid-19, it will take quite a bit longer than previously planned.

I agree.

TFA says:

Sao Paolo-based Gol, which operates a Boeing 737-only fleet, says on 14 April that it now has 95 aircraft on order, down from its 129 previously.

So they cut around a quarter of their orders. While losing orders is never a good thing, it seems to me it could have been an even bigger cut. GOL has not been performing well for a while, and obviously COVID-19 is going to put a lot of pressure on them going forward.

TW870 wrote:
The MAX will get certified and return to service. This all comes down to cash flow at Boeing. There is no way in hell, especially with a widebody slump, they can afford to scrap the MAX and go clean sheet alone, because without constant MAX deliveries there just won't be enough cash to keep the operation going. The A v. B duopoly allows both plane makers to move slow on technology, and take mediocre airplanes to the bank. Neither company wants to work on a breakthrough right now, because margins would be lower than on the two warmed over airplanes that are on the market now.

Agree. We have a lot of a.net members who like to use their imaginations and dream up new airplanes to be built, but there's no way that happens any time soon. Boeing needs to reestablish a good relationship with customers and regulators and get a good cash flow going again before it can consider any new airplane program.

IWMBH wrote:
I think that AA could've dropped the MAX-orders if they wanted to.

AA has said that parking NGs in favor of MAX is part of their post-covid recovery plan. The pre-covid grounding means a lot of NGs are on their last legs.
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slcdeltarumd11
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:50 pm

Long term fuel looks very low. Makes no sense to replace other aircraft with MAX .

Airlines are better to prepay for fuel of they have cash and keep less fuel efficient planes. Doubt many airlines can do that but would still make more sense to buy cheap fuel than a new expensive plane.

The MAX really can't make the financial sense it did two months ago. Crazy how fast everything has changed so fast!! The max was so incredible looking Financially even with all of its design flaws. Now it really is a plane airlines don't need.

This isn't 911.......things changed so fundamentally here so fast and will be the challenge of our lifetime to get out of this nosedive for the economy. Pray for all the unemployed and soon to be laid off , this will be the fight of our lives after all the dust settles to recover
 
beechnut
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:15 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Long term fuel looks very low. Makes no sense to replace other aircraft with MAX .

Airlines are better to prepay for fuel of they have cash and keep less fuel efficient planes. Doubt many airlines can do that but would still make more sense to buy cheap fuel than a new expensive plane.

The MAX really can't make the financial sense it did two months ago. Crazy how fast everything has changed so fast!! The max was so incredible looking Financially even with all of its design flaws. Now it really is a plane airlines don't need.


It depends on the reason for replacement. AC has many A320s that are running out of cycles and/or hours. The pandemic allows them to park those without replacement but that’s not forever. If as some say aviation will never return to pre-pandemic levels, AC and others may look at downsizing orders and/or aircraft (A220?).

At this point we are all opining. We’ll all end up watching this from the bleachers. In reality nobody knows how this will play out, but I think it’s safe to say that the odds against the MAX are much higher now than a year ago.

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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:20 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
So, we've got a carrier, in the midst of the sharpest downturn in aviation since WW II, that didn't have any money BEFORE the pandemic, that has force majeure because of the MAX grounding and Boeing's failure to deliver. This is an opportunistic cancellation to get out of aircraft they can't afford and don't need. How is anybody surprised by a cancellation? You don't see Gol announcing orders of A320neos nor A220s for the same delivery period, do you?

I won't be surprised by any opportunistic cancelations. I am predicting carpet inspections to put AAB to shame.

There will be many MAX cancelations. There will be RTS and it will fly. The cost and opportunity to return to service is far better than the alternative for most parties.

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sxf24
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:54 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Long term fuel looks very low. Makes no sense to replace other aircraft with MAX .

Airlines are better to prepay for fuel of they have cash and keep less fuel efficient planes. Doubt many airlines can do that but would still make more sense to buy cheap fuel than a new expensive plane.


Airlines can't really prepay for fuel unless they have a place to store it. There are forward contracts and hedging, but that requires a counterparty and compensation for risk.

Fuel prices will go up as economic activity increases. With ESG concerns, fuel efficient, new technology aircraft are still the only long-term bet.
 
codyul
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:58 am

beechnut wrote:
TW870 wrote:
I think the GOL cancellation is evidence that two things are going to happen:

1. Some airlines will use the COVID downturn and the MAX grounding to get out from under a junk airplane.


I don't think the GOL order is evidence of that. If they had cancelled *all* outstanding MAX orders and replaced them with something else, I would agree with you. But all they did was *reduce* their order.

I don't think it's evidence of using the downturn to get out of a junk airplane (though I agree it's a junk airplane), I think it's evidence that airlines are both using the downturn to right-size their orders that may have been overly ambitious to begin with, or are right-sizing their orders because they see a depressed market for a very long time that modifies the underlying assumptions used to justify the order in the first place.

That said I'd love to see AC (and others) cancel their MAX, and replace them with the same capacity but distributed in an A321NEO/LR/XLR and A220-300 (and maybe -500) mix. Not only would that be modern in the sense of average fleet age, but modern in the sense of being the best available technology, which the MAX surely isn't.

Beech


Could not agree more. And if I was in fleet planning at AC I'd have done exactly as you suggest. Alas..
But interesting that there are another 36 yet TBD cancellations. The exact number of undelivered MAX for AC. Muhahaha just starting a wishful rumor ;)
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Insertnamehere
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:15 am

In a sick twist of fate, this crisis as averted Boeing from the limelight giving them more time to flesh out a proper RTS and not getting hit with more bad press.
 
ThalesCoelho
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:21 am

People here are just forgetting that the MAX situation was a big, a very big hit for GOL future plans. An entire businessplan was throw away with the stop of the MAX. Boeing has a great part on the problems Gol was having before Covid.
 
Toinou
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:36 am

I guess what you're pointing is essentially true about any economical system where either:
1) You have an unperfect system of concurrence, which aircraft building is with its current duopoly or;
2) A system in which financial impact of changing your provider can create costs that can go beyond what you can spare by changing it, which air transport may or may not be, I don't think there is a consensus on that aspect.

And you are true, in such a situation, a provider can enjoy a form of economical rent and can afford to produce products that are not perfect or even not really to the level you would expect in an ideal situation.
But guess what? That's how capitalism is working. Whatever economics teaching may sound like, the ideal Adam Smith situation of perfect market is exactly that: an ideal, not a reality.
 
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seahawk
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:51 am

Expect both OEMs to see about 25% of their orders cancelled and another 25-30% deferred by up to 7-8 years. And do not forget the parked 737MAX are probably the only frames in the fleet of many airlines that make money at the moment. (due to Boeing having to pay compensations)
 
beechnut
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:47 pm

I’m not suggesting a monopoly. I’m suggesting that the MAX is a half-baked piece of junk, on the face of the evidence. And the fact is that those « worn out » A320s at AC are still more technically advanced than the MAX except for engines and fuel efficiency says a lot. AC’s oldest ones are 30 years old, some of the oldest flying, and Halifax notwithstanding, have a stellar safety record at AC.

What Boeing needs to do is go back to the drawing board subito presto even if it means taking a haircut in the narrow body market for a time.

Passenger experience is one thing but to some of us it safety matters. The whole MAX certification process was vitiated.

Beech
 
beechnut
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:53 pm

codyul wrote:
beechnut wrote:
TW870 wrote:
I think the GOL cancellation is evidence that two things are going to happen:

1. Some airlines will use the COVID downturn and the MAX grounding to get out from under a junk airplane.


I don't think the GOL order is evidence of that. If they had cancelled *all* outstanding MAX orders and replaced them with something else, I would agree with you. But all they did was *reduce* their order.

I don't think it's evidence of using the downturn to get out of a junk airplane (though I agree it's a junk airplane), I think it's evidence that airlines are both using the downturn to right-size their orders that may have been overly ambitious to begin with, or are right-sizing their orders because they see a depressed market for a very long time that modifies the underlying assumptions used to justify the order in the first place.

That said I'd love to see AC (and others) cancel their MAX, and replace them with the same capacity but distributed in an A321NEO/LR/XLR and A220-300 (and maybe -500) mix. Not only would that be modern in the sense of average fleet age, but modern in the sense of being the best available technology, which the MAX surely isn't.

Beech


Could not agree more. And if I was in fleet planning at AC I'd have done exactly as you suggest. Alas..
But interesting that there are another 36 yet TBD cancellations. The exact number of undelivered MAX for AC. Muhahaha just starting a wishful rumor ;)


Interesting about those 36. The terms of the MAX compensation with AC are undisclosed and confidential. If these are indeed AC’s MAX, i wonder how they would spin the cancellations? Perhaps also as a pandemic side effect? With some bla bla about not being a lack of confidence in the aircraft an still committed to the 24 already in the fleet?

Beech
 
sxf24
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:58 pm

beechnut wrote:
codyul wrote:
beechnut wrote:

I don't think the GOL order is evidence of that. If they had cancelled *all* outstanding MAX orders and replaced them with something else, I would agree with you. But all they did was *reduce* their order.

I don't think it's evidence of using the downturn to get out of a junk airplane (though I agree it's a junk airplane), I think it's evidence that airlines are both using the downturn to right-size their orders that may have been overly ambitious to begin with, or are right-sizing their orders because they see a depressed market for a very long time that modifies the underlying assumptions used to justify the order in the first place.

That said I'd love to see AC (and others) cancel their MAX, and replace them with the same capacity but distributed in an A321NEO/LR/XLR and A220-300 (and maybe -500) mix. Not only would that be modern in the sense of average fleet age, but modern in the sense of being the best available technology, which the MAX surely isn't.

Beech


Could not agree more. And if I was in fleet planning at AC I'd have done exactly as you suggest. Alas..
But interesting that there are another 36 yet TBD cancellations. The exact number of undelivered MAX for AC. Muhahaha just starting a wishful rumor ;)


Interesting about those 36. The terms of the MAX compensation with AC are undisclosed and confidential. If these are indeed AC’s MAX, i wonder how they would spin the cancellations? Perhaps also as a pandemic side effect? With some bla bla about not being a lack of confidence in the aircraft an still committed to the 24 already in the fleet?

Beech


AC has not cancelled all of its MAX. They announced cancellation of 11.
 
beechnut
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:30 pm

We are aware of that. Codyul was simply speculating that the remaining unattributed cancellations might be the rest of AC's MAX order. It wouldn't surprise me, but if they do it will be presented as pandemic-related, not due to the aircraft itself. AC like everyone else needs to preserve cash at the moment.

EDIT: just checked, I doubt it's AC's order. After cancelling the MAX 9, they have 12 left on order, 24 delivered, not 36 on order.

Beech
 
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:57 pm

Well that is not good. Well maybe they will some day rebrand as VARIG.
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Revelation
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:31 pm

seahawk wrote:
Expect both OEMs to see about 25% of their orders cancelled and another 25-30% deferred by up to 7-8 years. And do not forget the parked 737MAX are probably the only frames in the fleet of many airlines that make money at the moment. (due to Boeing having to pay compensations)

Seattle Times ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... roduction/ ) suggests Boeing may cut production by 50% and that it may take till 2023 to build back to 2019 production levels. Another person suggested 2025 rather than 2023. It also suggests almost 2/3rds of all Boeing produced aircraft are now parked, and that load factors are 90% down on the planes still flying.

It suggests both A and B will be down to producing ~35 jets per month, but I'm having a hard time seeing who will be taking that many airplanes unless it's all due to sheer inertia.
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seahawk
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Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Expect both OEMs to see about 25% of their orders cancelled and another 25-30% deferred by up to 7-8 years. And do not forget the parked 737MAX are probably the only frames in the fleet of many airlines that make money at the moment. (due to Boeing having to pay compensations)

Seattle Times ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... roduction/ ) suggests Boeing may cut production by 50% and that it may take till 2023 to build back to 2019 production levels. Another person suggested 2025 rather than 2023. It also suggests almost 2/3rds of all Boeing produced aircraft are now parked, and that load factors are 90% down on the planes still flying.

It suggests both A and B will be down to producing ~35 jets per month, but I'm having a hard time seeing who will be taking that many airplanes unless it's all due to sheer inertia.


And in the forum we still have A vs B wars. When in reality both are knee deep in problems. I must say I am not surprised but a little scared that the Seattle times has similar numbers compared to what I wrote and heard. This is really really bad.

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