Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:02 am

WayexTDI wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Antaras wrote:
Airbus cutted the production rate and we won't know is there "plenty of slots available".


Airbus are still building white tails though. For example, Air Asia's undelivered A320's are up for sale.

Are they really building white tails (a.k.a. aircraft with no pre-assigned customer when it enters FAL), or were those aircraft orphaned after going through FAL?
Sounds like the latter, where AirAsia decided to not take the aircraft after they've been completed or were in final stages of completion.

Airbus has no reason to build white-tails. In fact there would be lot of white-tails in the next few months, but mainly ntu frames.

I don't think VN will take up those white tail. VN has chosen PW1130G-JM for its current A321-272N, and I expect that VN will keep that engines option in the order (all VN's A321neos are now leased). However, that engine choice is quite rare (only NH and VN), so it is unlikely for a white-tail would be equipped with VN's ideal option.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Wed May 06, 2020 1:59 pm

VN plans to fully recover its domestic network from June: http://spirit.vietnamairlines.com/vi/tintuc/tin-tct-105/vietnam-airlines-group-tien-toi-phuc-hoi-toan-bo-mang-bay-noi-dia-7337.html
The Vietnamese domestic market is recovering very fast. We could understand why VN wants to risk and order the aircraft as soon possible.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10859
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Wed May 06, 2020 2:26 pm

Antaras wrote:

I don't think VN will take up those white tail. VN has chosen PW1130G-JM for its current A321-272N, and I expect that VN will keep that engines option in the order (all VN's A321neos are now leased). However, that engine choice is quite rare (only NH and VN), so it is unlikely for a white-tail would be equipped with VN's ideal option.

That depends. It could be a simple engine software/certification paperwork change and voila your A321-271N is now a A321-272N.
 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Wed May 06, 2020 2:43 pm

Polot wrote:
Antaras wrote:

I don't think VN will take up those white tail. VN has chosen PW1130G-JM for its current A321-272N, and I expect that VN will keep that engines option in the order (all VN's A321neos are now leased). However, that engine choice is quite rare (only NH and VN), so it is unlikely for a white-tail would be equipped with VN's ideal option.

That depends. It could be a simple engine software/certification paperwork change and voila your A321-271N is now a A321-272N.

All AirAsia's frames are CFM-powered (-251).

However, we don't know. We need some -27x whitetails first. But in fact, as mentioned on above replies, it is unlikely for VN to place an order immidiately as it needs approval from the authorities.
Maybe at the time VN's plan is approved, the coronavirus might be already beaten, the whitetails are all taken up, and the market is almost recovered.
It took nearly a year for VN to be approved ordering the 789 and 359 years ago.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10859
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Wed May 06, 2020 2:45 pm

Antaras wrote:
Polot wrote:
Antaras wrote:

I don't think VN will take up those white tail. VN has chosen PW1130G-JM for its current A321-272N, and I expect that VN will keep that engines option in the order (all VN's A321neos are now leased). However, that engine choice is quite rare (only NH and VN), so it is unlikely for a white-tail would be equipped with VN's ideal option.

That depends. It could be a simple engine software/certification paperwork change and voila your A321-271N is now a A321-272N.

All AirAsia's frames are CFM-powered (-251).

However, we don't know. We need some -27x whitetails first. But in fact, as mentioned on above replies, it is unlikely for VN to place an order immidiately as it needs approval from the authorities.
Maybe at the time VN's plan is approved, the coronavirus might be already beaten, the whitetails are all taken up, and the market is almost recovered.
It took nearly a year for VN to be approved ordering the 789 and 359 years ago.


Yes, the plane would need to be a PW powered plane. I was just pointing out it does not necessarily originally have to be a -272N to work.
 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Wed May 06, 2020 2:52 pm

Polot wrote:
Antaras wrote:
Polot wrote:
That depends. It could be a simple engine software/certification paperwork change and voila your A321-271N is now a A321-272N.

All AirAsia's frames are CFM-powered (-251).

However, we don't know. We need some -27x whitetails first. But in fact, as mentioned on above replies, it is unlikely for VN to place an order immidiately as it needs approval from the authorities.
Maybe at the time VN's plan is approved, the coronavirus might be already beaten, the whitetails are all taken up, and the market is almost recovered.
It took nearly a year for VN to be approved ordering the 789 and 359 years ago.


Yes, the plane would need to be a PW powered plane. I was just pointing out it does not necessarily originally have to be a -272N to work.

Yah I agree.
However it might be not neccessary for VN to take up ntu frames if it can't be approved soon.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1343
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Wed May 06, 2020 3:06 pm

Polot wrote:
Antaras wrote:
I don't think VN will take up those white tail. VN has chosen PW1130G-JM for its current A321-272N, and I expect that VN will keep that engines option in the order (all VN's A321neos are now leased). However, that engine choice is quite rare (only NH and VN), so it is unlikely for a white-tail would be equipped with VN's ideal option.

That depends. It could be a simple engine software/certification paperwork change and voila your A321-271N is now a A321-272N.

Yes, it is a thrust de-rate - so should be quite a simple modification.
 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 12:53 am

English report by Simple Flying: https://simpleflying.com/vietnam-airlines-plane-order/
$3.8bn for 50 airframes <=> ~$76 million / airframe, wow that is a big discount.

After the pandemic we would see a big fleet competition here in Vietnam. VJ is leading the run with 200 MAX on orders, QH eyes a double-in-size fleet at the end of this year (rumors say that QH has an eye on Vistara/Hainan's ntu 789, former-Interjet A320/A321neos as well as some former SA/TC A320-232/A321-211) besides its order of 10 789 (and 20 more 789 as well as 50 A321neo are sitting in the MoUs), and VN with its proposed orders of 50 narrowbodies + up to 20 regional jets (E190-E2/E175-E2) + its silent project of 8 A35K/B778 (?)
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19279
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 7:47 am

Antaras wrote:
English report by Simple Flying: https://simpleflying.com/vietnam-airlines-plane-order/
$3.8bn for 50 airframes <=> ~$76 million / airframe, wow that is a big discount.


Depending which frames he's talking about, the discount off list price seems pretty standard.

Antaras wrote:
QH eyes a double-in-size fleet at the end of this year (rumors say that QH has an eye on Vistara/Hainan's ntu 789, former-Interjet A320/A321neos as well as some former SA/TC A320-232/A321-211) besides its order of 10 789 (and 20 more 789 as well as 50 A321neo are sitting in the MoUs)


Bamboo seems to do a lot more talking than walking.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2688
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 8:23 am

Antaras wrote:
English report by Simple Flying: https://simpleflying.com/vietnam-airlines-plane-order/
$3.8bn for 50 airframes <=> ~$76 million / airframe, wow that is a big discount.

After the pandemic we would see a big fleet competition here in Vietnam. VJ is leading the run with 200 MAX on orders, QH eyes a double-in-size fleet at the end of this year (rumors say that QH has an eye on Vistara/Hainan's ntu 789, former-Interjet A320/A321neos as well as some former SA/TC A320-232/A321-211) besides its order of 10 789 (and 20 more 789 as well as 50 A321neo are sitting in the MoUs), and VN with its proposed orders of 50 narrowbodies + up to 20 regional jets (E190-E2/E175-E2) + its silent project of 8 A35K/B778 (?)


I don’t envy whoever has to find the space at SGNfor all these new aircraft!

I wonder how many of VJ’s order will be allocated to Thai VietJet, and if they’re considering any other foreign subsidiaries. SE Asia is very crowded, but growing fast!
 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 10:32 am

MrHMSH wrote:
Antaras wrote:
English report by Simple Flying: https://simpleflying.com/vietnam-airlines-plane-order/
$3.8bn for 50 airframes <=> ~$76 million / airframe, wow that is a big discount.

After the pandemic we would see a big fleet competition here in Vietnam. VJ is leading the run with 200 MAX on orders, QH eyes a double-in-size fleet at the end of this year (rumors say that QH has an eye on Vistara/Hainan's ntu 789, former-Interjet A320/A321neos as well as some former SA/TC A320-232/A321-211) besides its order of 10 789 (and 20 more 789 as well as 50 A321neo are sitting in the MoUs), and VN with its proposed orders of 50 narrowbodies + up to 20 regional jets (E190-E2/E175-E2) + its silent project of 8 A35K/B778 (?)


I don’t envy whoever has to find the space at SGNfor all these new aircraft!

I wonder how many of VJ’s order will be allocated to Thai VietJet, and if they’re considering any other foreign subsidiaries. SE Asia is very crowded, but growing fast!


I don't know if the construction of SGN Terminal 3 would helps anything. We all expect those airframes (from VJ and VN) would be delivered from 2022-2023, hopes that the T3 as well as the new Long Thành Airport would be able to handle something.

I have no clue on TVJ. Seems that it is still ok with a smal fleet of A320/321ceo, and I don't know if the VJ group will decide to combat on Thai domestic market (TVJ was bornt mostly to support VJ's international network from Thailand, and it rarely operates domestic flights, as well as non-Vietnam related routes). Sure that TVJ would recieve some MAX, especially the MAX 10 as the Vietnamese VJ already has a bunch of A321, which make the Max10 non-sensical in the fleet.

===================================

Rumors say that the order would be a mix of A320/321neo (including XLR), as well as the 737MAX (unknown variant)
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
VV
Posts: 1899
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 10:39 am

That's a good news for the A320neo family.
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2688
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 10:54 am

Antaras wrote:

I don't know if the construction of SGN Terminal 3 would helps anything. We all expect those airframes (from VJ and VN) would be delivered from 2022-2023, hopes that the T3 as well as the new Long Thành Airport would be able to handle something.


While I can only speculate, I do think that virtually all of VJ's flights needing buses (and a fair distance as well) is what contributes to them having such poor on-time performance. More runways/a new airport is probably the best solution. Out of interest, where at SGN is a Terminal 3 proposed to be built, is it at the Tan Son Nhat golf course?

I have no clue on TVJ. Seems that it is still ok with a smal fleet of A320/321ceo, and I don't know if the VJ group will decide to combat on Thai domestic market (TVJ was bornt mostly to support VJ's international network from Thailand, and it rarely operates domestic flights, as well as non-Vietnam related routes). Sure that TVJ would recieve some MAX, especially the MAX 10 as the Vietnamese VJ already has a bunch of A321, which make the Max10 non-sensical in the fleet.


Thai VJ's domestic routes include BKK-CNX, HKT, CEI, KBV and UTH, which I guess is fairly standard. VJ has to operate some MAX 10s themselves, they're already going to operate MAX 8s, so the MAX 10 is hardly an oddball. It'll be good for domestic flights.

===================================

Rumors say that the order would be a mix of A320/321neo (including XLR), as well as the 737MAX (unknown variant)


I'd find it strange if they did order the MAX, but then I guess VN is more politically-driven than many airlines are. You'd normally say that splitting the fleet would happen if they couldn't get enough of them in time, but with demand so low I don't think getting A32Xneos will take that long. We'll have to see! The XLR would have a place, but to be honest I'm not sure where it would fly that a normal A321neo can't reach. Japan, China, Korea and India are all within normal A321neo range. Maybe some Australian ports?
 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 1:55 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Antaras wrote:

I don't know if the construction of SGN Terminal 3 would helps anything. We all expect those airframes (from VJ and VN) would be delivered from 2022-2023, hopes that the T3 as well as the new Long Thành Airport would be able to handle something.


While I can only speculate, I do think that virtually all of VJ's flights needing buses (and a fair distance as well) is what contributes to them having such poor on-time performance. More runways/a new airport is probably the best solution. Out of interest, where at SGN is a Terminal 3 proposed to be built, is it at the Tan Son Nhat golf course?

I have no clue on TVJ. Seems that it is still ok with a smal fleet of A320/321ceo, and I don't know if the VJ group will decide to combat on Thai domestic market (TVJ was bornt mostly to support VJ's international network from Thailand, and it rarely operates domestic flights, as well as non-Vietnam related routes). Sure that TVJ would recieve some MAX, especially the MAX 10 as the Vietnamese VJ already has a bunch of A321, which make the Max10 non-sensical in the fleet.


Thai VJ's domestic routes include BKK-CNX, HKT, CEI, KBV and UTH, which I guess is fairly standard. VJ has to operate some MAX 10s themselves, they're already going to operate MAX 8s, so the MAX 10 is hardly an oddball. It'll be good for domestic flights.

===================================

Rumors say that the order would be a mix of A320/321neo (including XLR), as well as the 737MAX (unknown variant)


I'd find it strange if they did order the MAX, but then I guess VN is more politically-driven than many airlines are. You'd normally say that splitting the fleet would happen if they couldn't get enough of them in time, but with demand so low I don't think getting A32Xneos will take that long. We'll have to see! The XLR would have a place, but to be honest I'm not sure where it would fly that a normal A321neo can't reach. Japan, China, Korea and India are all within normal A321neo range. Maybe some Australian ports?


1. VN and QH are paying for bridge-use slots with ACV/VIAGS. Means that no more bridge for VJ and BL to use. As a result, those two carriers have the worst OTP, while the two big guys have the damn high OTP (95%-98%, I remember).
2. About the position of the SGN T3:
:shakehead: Nope, do not expect that stupid golf course to be moved in the next 20 years.
Image
Long Thành seems like the only solution.
3. Yeah of course VN would buy the MAX for only political purpose. Well Vietnam aviation is an Airbus-heavy market, and a large order of Boeing would make Trump happy, and this would be good for the whole Vietnam especially in those sensitive days.
4. About the A321XLR, yah I agree that VN may be eyeing Western-Aus airports such as Perth or Darwin. But don't forget Russia. Vietnamese beach cities such as Nha Trang and Phan Thiết/Mũi Né are Russians' favorite places. CXR (large int'l airport welcoming dozens of flights from Russia every month before the Pandemic) and PHH (Phan Thiết Airport, will be constructed this year alongside with Long Thành), and we would see some A321XLR flying between those airports and Rus airports in the next few years. Especially with VJ, its founder is a Russian-bias (:D), it has stakes in CXR airport (or in other world, VJ partly owns CXR), I would not suprise if VJ would like to compete with Azur's 757s and S7's A321neo on those routes.
Vietnam wants to reduce its dependence on Chinese tourists after this pandemic so, the A321XLR of VN and VJ would help this plan.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 2:15 pm

VV wrote:
That's a good news for the A320neo family.

Well VN didn't confirm the order type yet :duck:
However, agree that VN would choose the neo. Good for both Airbus and VN those days.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2688
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 2:33 pm

Antaras wrote:

1. VN and QH are paying for bridge-use slots with ACV/VIAGS. Means that no more bridge for VJ and BL to use. As a result, those two carriers have the worst OTP, while the two big guys have the damn high OTP (95%-98%, I remember).


Unsurprising. Doesn't reflect well on VJ or BL, but I guess there's little they can do about it. Always a frustration!

2. About the position of the SGN T3:
:shakehead: Nope, do not expect that stupid golf course to be moved in the next 20 years.

Long Thành seems like the only solution.


Not sure why I didn't think about where all of VJ's aircraft are parked, to be honest! I guess they'll have to demolish quite a few buildings, but then the VN government wouldn't be shy about this! I hope that the new airport gets built soon, should be a rival to BKK and KUL, but with a larger domestic market than either it'll be quite some force. Good public transport to SGN centre would be great as well.

3. Yeah of course VN would buy the MAX for only political purpose. Well Vietnam aviation is an Airbus-heavy market, and a large order of Boeing would make Trump happy, and this would be good for the whole Vietnam especially in those sensitive days.


I'm sure the MAX would do well for them, but with a relatively small fleet and A321neos on hand already it seems excessive. I guess MAX 8s make the most sense.

4. About the A321XLR, yah I agree that VN may be eyeing Western-Aus airports such as Perth or Darwin. But don't forget Russia. Vietnamese beach cities such as Nha Trang and Phan Thiết/Mũi Né are Russians' favorite places. CXR (large int'l airport welcoming dozens of flights from Russia every month before the Pandemic) and PHH (Phan Thiết Airport, will be constructed this year alongside with Long Thành), and we would see some A321XLR flying between those airports and Rus airports in the next few years. Especially with VJ, its founder is a Russian-bias (:D), it has stakes in CXR airport (or in other world, VJ partly owns CXR), I would not suprise if VJ would like to compete with Azur's 757s and S7's A321neo on those routes.
Vietnam wants to reduce its dependence on Chinese tourists after this pandemic so, the A321XLR of VN and VJ would help this plan.


I completely forgot Russia, which is weird as I know how crazy they are for CXR and PHH (didn't know they were building an airport there, but makes complete sense). A quick look at GC Mapper shows that 4500nm is sufficient to cover the entirety of Russia from CXR (except Kaliningrad), even CXR-LED just about falls within that. 4500nm is probably quite optimistic for an A321XLR, but it could be done.
 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 2:58 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
I completely forgot Russia, which is weird as I know how crazy they are for CXR and PHH (didn't know they were building an airport there, but makes complete sense). A quick look at GC Mapper shows that 4500nm is sufficient to cover the entirety of Russia from CXR (except Kaliningrad), even CXR-LED just about falls within that. 4500nm is probably quite optimistic for an A321XLR, but it could be done.


I saw S7 flying non-LR A321neo between SVO and CXR (or SGN), and Azur's 757 (-200 or -300 or both), so I think that the A321XLR won't find any problem flying from Southern Vietnam to Russia.

Or a bigger plot twist, VN could do SGN-HND/NRT/KIX-ANC-LAX. Well VN said that there might not be too much high demand on VN-US route, so an A321XLR is enough :D
(Or just a original A321neo is enough, isn't it)
Image
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2688
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 3:08 pm

Antaras wrote:

I saw S7 flying non-LR A321neo between SVO and CXR (or SGN), and Azur's 757 (-200 or -300 or both), so I think that the A321XLR won't find any problem flying from Southern Vietnam to Russia.


The XLR would certainly allow more passengers to be lifted, 4200nm seems a long way for a regular A321neo! I imagine they'd have to block some seats to SGN and CXR, but no way of knowing if that's true.

Or a bigger plot twist, VN could do SGN-HND/NRT/KIX-ANC-LAX. Well VN said that there might not be too much high demand on VN-US route, so an A321XLR is enough :D
(Or just a original A321neo is enough, isn't it)
Image


I don't think I'd want to start and end in SGN or LAX! Seems very ambitious, I'd rather they just flew a 787 or A350 nonstop.
 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 3:19 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Antaras wrote:

I saw S7 flying non-LR A321neo between SVO and CXR (or SGN), and Azur's 757 (-200 or -300 or both), so I think that the A321XLR won't find any problem flying from Southern Vietnam to Russia.


The XLR would certainly allow more passengers to be lifted, 4200nm seems a long way for a regular A321neo! I imagine they'd have to block some seats to SGN and CXR, but no way of knowing if that's true.

Yes, of course.
https://www.ruaviation.com/news/2020/4/20/14974/?h
S7's A321neo configured with C8Y195 (total 203, exactly the same with VN), but that flight holded only 178 pax, so means that S7 did block some rows for lighter load.
However, it was such a repatriation flight. IDK how is its scheduled service. If S7 actually brings the full-loaded A321neo to CXR, the only explanation would be..."Russian style"
:duck:
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 7157
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 5:58 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
I completely forgot Russia, which is weird as I know how crazy they are for CXR and PHH (didn't know they were building an airport there, but makes complete sense).

Antaras wrote:
Well VN said that there might not be too much high demand on VN-US route, so an A321XLR is enough :D

Here's something completely out of left field -- can't VN convert a handful of narrowbody orders to a couple of A338s and fly both on LAX-PKC-SGN instead? :idea:

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LAX-PKC-SGN&DU=nm


Would give them reasonable capacity and range, plus belly freight to boot...VN could fly the pair during peak season and use the XLRs on lean months. ;)
Last edited by Devilfish on Tue May 26, 2020 6:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 4645
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 6:01 pm

Antaras wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Airbus' announcement of production cuts should reflect demand for its product NET OF expected new orders and cancellations. (You can argue they cut too much. One can also question if they have cut enough in one step given the politicization of layoffs.) That means there really shouldn't be a vast surplus of available delivery slots - production should be right-sized to new demand levels.

If they really want XLRs instead of neos, they will be waiting until 2023+, anyway.

Low labor costs and a backstop of government money are nice but I really don't see SE Asia needing another hub. If they plan to cater to O&D traffic (to, from, and within Vietnam), great.


However, VN might has chance to have a damn good discount while negotiating at this moment. Agree that the VN's managers might have missed the news that Aib is cutting its production rate.
About the XLRs, VN will order a maximum of a dozen. It is ridiculous that VN will order up to 50 XLRs. Remember that Vietnamese domestic market is huge, and the regular-A321neo are simply enough.

I am doubt about the government's plan to turn the future Long Thành Int'l Airport (dozens of miles from SGN) into a new "transition hub" of ASEAN, as the region has enough hubs: SIN, BKK, HKG.
However the Viet Gov' is quite confident with that plan; that's why the gov is having some good policies to support the development of VJ, VN and QH.

If I understand correctly, Vietnam to Eastern Japan and to India can use the higher range of XLR?
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
(≧▽≦) Nyan! Nyan! Nyan! Nyan! Nyan! Nyan! Nyan! Nyan!
(≧▽≦) Meow Meow Meow! Meow Meow Meow Meow!
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 7157
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 7:23 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
I don't think I'd want to start and end in SGN or LAX! Seems very ambitious, I'd rather they just flew a 787 or A350 nonstop.

Well, VN's A332s are rather long in the tooth and their 789 or A359 may be a bit too much plane for the route. The A338 provides a cheaper, updated, right-sized, relatively fuel-efficient solution, while allowing easier transition for their A332 pilots. And as mentioned above, Airbus are motivated to sell now...it can be a less risky proposition.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=ONT-PKC-CXR&DU=nm

On the matter of O&D airports, am not sure that HAN would have more demand to/fro the U.S. than SGN...although ONT could prove to be a good alternate given it's less crowded and may offer generous incentives for VN to fly there. Can't imagine PKC to have much traffic but locals weary of the cold and isolation will welcome any chance of a tropical vacation. I put it out there mainly as a midway stopover point and don't think there will be many holding visas to travel to the U.S.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Jefford717
Posts: 59
Joined: Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:36 pm

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 7:39 pm

Devilfish wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
I completely forgot Russia, which is weird as I know how crazy they are for CXR and PHH (didn't know they were building an airport there, but makes complete sense).

Antaras wrote:
Well VN said that there might not be too much high demand on VN-US route, so an A321XLR is enough :D

Here's something completely out of left field -- can't VN convert a handful of narrowbody orders to a couple of A338s and fly both on LAX-PKC-SGN instead? :idea:

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LAX-PKC-SGN&DU=nm


Would give them reasonable capacity and range, plus belly freight to boot...VN could fly the pair during peak season and use the XLRs on lean months. ;)


Nonstop or bust. Way too many one-stop cheap alternative to LAX or USA in general in the region from established carriers with better public image than VN.
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2688
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Tue May 26, 2020 11:30 pm

Devilfish wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
I don't think I'd want to start and end in SGN or LAX! Seems very ambitious, I'd rather they just flew a 787 or A350 nonstop.

Well, VN's A332s are rather long in the tooth and their 789 or A359 may be a bit too much plane for the route. The A338 provides a cheaper, updated, right-sized, relatively fuel-efficient solution, while allowing easier transition for their A332 pilots. And as mentioned above, Airbus are motivated to sell now...it can be a less risky proposition.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=ONT-PKC-CXR&DU=nm

On the matter of O&D airports, am not sure that HAN would have more demand to/fro the U.S. than SGN...although ONT could prove to be a good alternate given it's less crowded and may offer generous incentives for VN to fly there. Can't imagine PKC to have much traffic but locals weary of the cold and isolation will welcome any chance of a tropical vacation. I put it out there mainly as a midway stopover point and don't think there will be many holding visas to travel to the U.S.


They are in fact so long in the tooth that they have been retired! I don't think VN has operated the A330 for over a year, they settled on the A350 and 787. PKC airport seems very fanciful, if they're going to start US flights then it'll be a 787 or A350, with a stop either in TPE or no stop at all.
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1343
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Wed May 27, 2020 3:02 am

I don't think any service from SGN/HAN will be operated on a narrow body. Whether the B787 or A350 is deployed depends on what kind of load VN will be carrying.
 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Wed May 27, 2020 4:41 am

Does anyone expect that VN would order some A220 (-100 most likely) or the E175/190-E2?
Months ago VN was finding for some CRJ9/E175-E2, but it couldn't find the available frames.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Wed May 27, 2020 4:42 am

Devilfish wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
I completely forgot Russia, which is weird as I know how crazy they are for CXR and PHH (didn't know they were building an airport there, but makes complete sense).

Antaras wrote:
Well VN said that there might not be too much high demand on VN-US route, so an A321XLR is enough :D

Here's something completely out of left field -- can't VN convert a handful of narrowbody orders to a couple of A338s and fly both on LAX-PKC-SGN instead? :idea:

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LAX-PKC-SGN&DU=nm


Would give them reasonable capacity and range, plus belly freight to boot...VN could fly the pair during peak season and use the XLRs on lean months. ;)


Why PKC but not some Taiwan/Korea/Japan airport.
Or even ANC, VN transitted some of its TPAC repatriation flight in ANC.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 7157
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Wed May 27, 2020 7:28 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
PKC airport seems very fanciful, if they're going to start US flights then it'll be a 787 or A350, with a stop either in TPE or no stop at all.

As I said in #70 -- the idea was something completely out of "left field"...PKC is not supposed to be much more than a tech stop with an odd chance of taking on a few passengers. Its choice was inspired by the comment about how Russians loved CXR and PHH.


Antaras wrote:
Why PKC but not some Taiwan/Korea/Japan airport.

PKC presents a workable stop for VN's 'future' XLRs. Secondly, it allows for just the right amount of fuel plus reserves to be carried on both legs by say an A338, theoretically making the trip more weight efficient (not sure though if depot refueling is available there cheaply). I had considered CTS as a more conventional stopover, but the call of adventure was strong. :cold: Didn't know a stop at ICN or TPE would be more appealing to Vietnamese than one on the mainland.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
potter787
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2016 11:06 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:35 am

VN has the fifth freedom right at KIX, TPE so they were looking at those stopovers for their proposed LAX route. They could actually do a scissor HAN/SGN/DAD - TPE/KIX - LAX. That would help them to fill up widebody with passengers from all 3 VN cities, save some fuel, and achieve their political mission i.e fly to US soil.

I believe VN is one of more commercial oriented among state-owned airlines in South East Asia. They would try to defer LAX launch as far as possible because they know it wont make money but they need to balance government mandate too.
 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:47 pm

Devilfish wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
PKC airport seems very fanciful, if they're going to start US flights then it'll be a 787 or A350, with a stop either in TPE or no stop at all.

As I said in #70 -- the idea was something completely out of "left field"...PKC is not supposed to be much more than a tech stop with an odd chance of taking on a few passengers. Its choice was inspired by the comment about how Russians loved CXR and PHH.


Antaras wrote:
Why PKC but not some Taiwan/Korea/Japan airport.

PKC presents a workable stop for VN's 'future' XLRs. Secondly, it allows for just the right amount of fuel plus reserves to be carried on both legs by say an A338, theoretically making the trip more weight efficient (not sure though if depot refueling is available there cheaply). I had considered CTS as a more conventional stopover, but the call of adventure was strong. :cold: Didn't know a stop at ICN or TPE would be more appealing to Vietnamese than one on the mainland.


In fact the "A321 to the US" thing was just a JOKE :duck:
It is no way that VN would bring that tiny narrowbody TPAC. Although VN always says that the demand might not enough, it also say that it needs the bigger 777X/A35K for its US service:

Vietnam Airlines is determined to launch services to the United States by the end of 2019, with more clarity expected soon about the country's US Federal Aviation Administration status.

The Skyteam carrier is assessing both the Boeing 777X and Airbus A350-1000 for the 7,098nm Ho Chi Minh City-Los Angeles route, says Vietnam Airlines executive vice president Le Hong Ha.

"The flight time is quite long, more than 16 hours," he says. "The sellable payload is very important to us, so we are studying what aircraft, based on performance, allows us to launch the route by the end of 2019."

The possible acquisition would entail four aircraft. Should the 777X be selected, the aircraft is only likely to be available for Vietnam Airlines in 2021.


Or at least use its existing 789/78X/359 nonstop or a stop in TPE/KIX/ICN. Those airports are main playgrounds of CI, ANA and KE, those are VN's big partners. A codeshare agreement/JV would turn the Vietnam - California route into a goldmine. The partnerships are also an advantage of VN to its main rival QH, when Bamboo is still a solo carrier with no partner airline until this moment.

====================================================================================

:whiteflag: Back to the topic of the narrowbodies, no widebodies and US things here :D
New hint about the 50-narrowbody order.

The government suggested VN to change its engine option, no more unstable PW here :D

The airline should take a cautious approach in selecting engines for the Airbus A320/321neo family when it comes to Pratt & Whitney’s aircraft engines, due to recent incidents.

https://english.thesaigontimes.vn/73236/vietnam-airlines-seeks-to-buy-50-narrow-body-jets.html


Not a very new article (since Dec 19), but an important hint. Would VN become the next big guy (after Qatar, Royal Brunei Air, China Southern, VietJet Air, Indigo) to escape from PW and become a new customer of the LEAP. Especially when there are rumours that VN is also eyeing the LEAP-powered MAX, this would make more sense.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
User avatar
Antaras
Topic Author
Posts: 1004
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:32 am

New report about VN's fleet plan, including the 50-aircraft order here

Widebodies: needs at least 1 more airframes (as comparison with the order book of 11 B789, 8 B78X and 14 A359) >> not so much
Narrowbodies: needs 50 more airframes (at least 95 airframes, with around 30 airframes would be returned/retired)
Regional jet: 6 to 20.

The narrowbodies and RJ order is questionable. Rumors say that VN may lease some dozens of E2 to "skip" the government approval.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos