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ordbosewr
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United Airlines projects $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:54 pm

Headline from cnbc.com

UA results for Q1.

pre-tax loss of $2.1B
revenue $8B (down 17% from LY)

UA to apply for Federal Loan for $4.5B

that is all I can find and see, looked for release on hub.united.com, none found
 
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enilria
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:15 pm

They weren't supposed to post earnings today. Very confused.
 
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chepos
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:19 pm

Here is the link,

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/united- ... l-aid.html


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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ordbosewr
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:23 pm

enilria wrote:
They weren't supposed to post earnings today. Very confused.


I am confused because nothing is on the ir.united.com website and this is something that should be publicly posted immediately per SEC guidelines...

At first, I thought it was timing and my browser not working, but this is not right......
 
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lightsaber
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:37 pm

Link:
https://www.thestreet.com/.amp/investin ... oronavirus

"United Airlines (UAL) - Get Report declined Monday after the company announced it recorded a $2.1 billion pretax loss in the first quarter as the coronavirus pandemic grounded the airline industry."

This is expected. Unfortunately, all airlines will emerge smaller in my opinion.

Lightsaber
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MIflyer12
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:52 pm

enilria wrote:
They weren't supposed to post earnings today. Very confused.


The big loss isn't surprising, but I thought U.S. public firms operated to an earnings releases calendar with dates known in advance.

There is an 8-K filing today. https://ir.united.com/static-files/440c ... aff0210d3e

United.com isn't showing this under earnings releases, nor press releases.
 
United1
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:37 pm

Are the airlines under the CARES Act who received funding supposed to put out a sort of pre-earnings release? I’d have to go look up the details again but I think this is why it’s an 8k not a 10k SEC filling. It’s a very abbreviated and doesn’t contain even a fraction of the data a normal quarterly report does.

Edit: Reading through the CARES act loan application process there is a blurb about applicants needing to submit a few years worth of earnings reports including any current, audited but unreleased q1 data. Wondering if this is UAs way of getting that data to the feds while also meeting its SEC requirements to disclose that data.
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codc10
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:49 pm

This isn't an earnings release per se, but rather the 8K disclosing what UAL is seeking from the federal government under the CARES Act. Others made similar filings last week. UAL posts its earnings after DAL and AA, so maybe there is some strategic reason to release its 'bottom line' number ahead of the others?
 
tphuang
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:56 pm

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/ed ... 20208k.htm
to be fair, the $2.1 billion loss includes
$319 million on investment
$697 million Nonoperating credit loss on BRW term loan and related guarantee
which reads
"Nonoperating credit loss on BRW term loan and related guarantee. During the three months ended March 31, 2020, the Company recorded a $697 million expected credit loss allowance for the BRW Aviation Holding LLC and BRW Aviation LLC ("BRW") term loan and related guarantee. United recorded the allowance based on United's assessment of Avianca Holdings S.A.'s ("AVH") financial uncertainty due to its high level of leverage and the fact that the airline has currently ceased operations due to the COVID-19 pandemic. BRW's equity and BRW's holdings of AVH equity are secured as a pledge under the BRW term loan, which is currently in default. "

I'd imagine DL's losses on these things are even larger.

The operational losses of $1 billion was not larger than I expected. Probably close to $40 million a day in March if we assume some profits in Jan/Feb.

I don't see other airlines necessarily do better than this. Maybe a little bit.

What I think would alarm the street even more is when they come out and announce how much cash they have on hand and how they are expecting to lose going forward.

I'd imagine most airlines have to apply for CARES loans at this point.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:11 pm

I have to say I did not quite expect it to be that big given it was not til around 2/25 or so that things got bad. Prior to that the only major impact was China route cutting
 
MIflyer12
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:16 pm

tphuang wrote:
What I think would alarm the street even more is when they come out and announce how much cash they have on hand and how they are expecting to lose going forward.



Here's the liquidity statement from today's 8-K filing:


As of April 16, 2020, the Company had $6.3 billion of cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments and undrawn amounts, including $2 billion under its
undrawn revolving credit facility. As previously disclosed, in March and in early April 2020, United has borrowed an aggregate of $2.75 billion under new
secured term loan facilities each of which must be repaid in a single installment on the applicable maturity date, which, in each case, is twelve months from
the borrowing date.

I don't know if they have replaced earnings guidance, or have just withdrawn it.
 
tphuang
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:34 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
What I think would alarm the street even more is when they come out and announce how much cash they have on hand and how they are expecting to lose going forward.



Here's the liquidity statement from today's 8-K filing:


As of April 16, 2020, the Company had $6.3 billion of cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments and undrawn amounts, including $2 billion under its
undrawn revolving credit facility. As previously disclosed, in March and in early April 2020, United has borrowed an aggregate of $2.75 billion under new
secured term loan facilities each of which must be repaid in a single installment on the applicable maturity date, which, in each case, is twelve months from
the borrowing date.

I don't know if they have replaced earnings guidance, or have just withdrawn it.


Thank you so much. Interesting. If that leeham article is to be trusted, they had $6 billion in cash+equivalents/investment with $2 billion credit. So that's about $1.7 billion cash loss in 37 days. That's not as bad as I though, about $45 million a day during this time. It's not clear to me if any of that $2.75 billion is included in the $6.3 billion. If it is, then they have been burning through cash much worse than I expected or leeham article overestimated their cash position in early March. If not, then they are doing better than I expected.

If I had to guess, it would be the former. Hard to see they would have over $2 billion more cash on hand than DL at the moment.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:17 am

tphuang wrote:

I'd imagine DL's losses on these things are even larger.

The operational losses of $1 billion was not larger than I expected. Probably close to $40 million a day in March if we assume some profits in Jan/Feb.

I don't see other airlines necessarily do better than this. Maybe a little bit.



Delta's 1Q20 earnings release and 8-K filing are out this morning. DL shows a GAAP pre-tax loss of $607 million. Hard to call a loss of that scale a win.

Link to the DL 8-K: https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/C ... 55b9c8.pdf

I'll post DL highlights/lowlights to a separate thread.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:02 pm

I still do not understand why there are still so many flights operating in the US.
 
tphuang
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:24 pm

This is apparently from last night's UA town hall
- virtually zero future booking
- look for the day when daily booking > daily cancel
- both UA and DL flying 10% of planned schedule yet WN flying 50% of planned schedule
- UA lf about 13%. Majority of flight have less than 30 passengers
- WN flying many legs with 0 passengers

If anything, UA is cutting enough flights. Other airlines miffed why WN has been so slow cutting theirs.
 
ordbosewr
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:42 pm

tphuang wrote:
This is apparently from last night's UA town hall
- virtually zero future booking
- look for the day when daily booking > daily cancel
- both UA and DL flying 10% of planned schedule yet WN flying 50% of planned schedule
- UA lf about 13%. Majority of flight have less than 30 passengers
- WN flying many legs with 0 passengers

If anything, UA is cutting enough flights. Other airlines miffed why WN has been so slow cutting theirs.


I think WN is trying to set themselves up for for the growth and hurt competitors.

I don't think it has 1 part to do with making money now, but rather getting customers to be loyal when demand rebounds
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:57 pm

United Airlines has by far the most exposure internationally (most international routes, especially to the Far East, China, and Singapore), as well as the largest wide-body fleet among the US3. To be honest, this doesn't surprise me, and they can only fly so many domestic wide-body routes, plus someone has to fly the TLV route for cargo.

American: 134 wide-bodies
Delta: 155 wide-bodies
United: 203 wide-bodies

By contrast, Southwest only has 73Gs and 73Hs active and its hops are much shorter.
 
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jetblastdubai
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:05 pm

tphuang wrote:
- UA lf about 13%. Majority of flight have less than 30 passengers


Good time to keep the RJs running. If distance allow it, this would be the time to use an available plane that better fits the demand. Not sure if organized labor allows for much flexibility but if employees really want to help their employer get through these tough times this would be one way.
 
United1
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:27 pm

jetblastdubai wrote:
tphuang wrote:
- UA lf about 13%. Majority of flight have less than 30 passengers


Good time to keep the RJs running. If distance allow it, this would be the time to use an available plane that better fits the demand. Not sure if organized labor allows for much flexibility but if employees really want to help their employer get through these tough times this would be one way.


I'm actually impressed LF was 13%...last month they projected single digits.

Looking at the UA fleet website a bit over 72% of the UAX fleet is still in operation vs 22% of the NB fleet and 30% of the WB fleet. Obviously that is not the entire story as it doesn't address reduced utilization, cargo only flights for the WB fleet, ongoing mods and UA rotating aircraft in and out of service but...they do seem to be skewing towards UAX. That not entirely surprising as UA even with all of this going on UA (and all of the airlines) still have capacity purchase agreements in place so I'm sure they are paying on that. While the RJs have a higher CASM than mainline they do have a lower operating cost soooo unless they are flying cargo around RJs for the win.

I'm not sure labor would care as long as UA is paying their employees (and they have been paying all of them whether they are sitting at home or not.) Come October 1st that will unfortunately be another story.
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atcsundevil
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:15 pm

This thread is about the current financial state of United, not their customer service offerings. There are other more appropriate places for that discussion.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
capejet
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:56 am

If you think customer service has anything to do with the current situation of UA/AA/DL being in the most desperate straights in their history than you are totally misinformed.
 
Moosefire
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal

Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:55 am

atcsundevil wrote:
This thread is about the current financial state of United, not their customer service offerings. There are other more appropriate places for that discussion.

✈️ atcsundevil


I understand your point but I do think that it’s still relevant.

I am one data point, but as there are fewer traveling ill still share my persective.

I’m flying weekly in purchased (not upgraded) F. UA platinum. The service pull downs have been matched by a noticeable lack of effort by the cabin crews (wasn’t even offered a water bottle in first). You can feel the apathy onboard, feels like oldschool US.

So here I am with every incentive to fly United (chasing 1k) and what do I do this week? Book on Delta. I’m sure there are others... and that’s gonna hit the balance sheet.

The folks still flying aren’t leisure travelers, and their loyalty is gonna matter
MD-11F/C-17A Pilot
 
ordbosewr
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:33 pm

Moosefire wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
This thread is about the current financial state of United, not their customer service offerings. There are other more appropriate places for that discussion.

✈️ atcsundevil


I understand your point but I do think that it’s still relevant.

I am one data point, but as there are fewer traveling ill still share my persective.

I’m flying weekly in purchased (not upgraded) F. UA platinum. The service pull downs have been matched by a noticeable lack of effort by the cabin crews (wasn’t even offered a water bottle in first). You can feel the apathy onboard, feels like oldschool US.

So here I am with every incentive to fly United (chasing 1k) and what do I do this week? Book on Delta. I’m sure there are others... and that’s gonna hit the balance sheet.

The folks still flying aren’t leisure travelers, and their loyalty is gonna matter


Is it apathy or fear of getting sick? They don't know you or where you have been. After all, you are less than 10%, that is traveling.

Sorry, but I think getting you and the crew homes safe and healthy is more important than the crew acting perky happy and making sure all of our needs are meet. If that means you don't get service for a flight, that sounds fine to me, I will not crush them.
 
OB1504
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:31 pm

Moosefire wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
This thread is about the current financial state of United, not their customer service offerings. There are other more appropriate places for that discussion.

✈️ atcsundevil


I understand your point but I do think that it’s still relevant.

I am one data point, but as there are fewer traveling ill still share my persective.

I’m flying weekly in purchased (not upgraded) F. UA platinum. The service pull downs have been matched by a noticeable lack of effort by the cabin crews (wasn’t even offered a water bottle in first). You can feel the apathy onboard, feels like oldschool US.

So here I am with every incentive to fly United (chasing 1k) and what do I do this week? Book on Delta. I’m sure there are others... and that’s gonna hit the balance sheet.

The folks still flying aren’t leisure travelers, and their loyalty is gonna matter


Surely you can’t be serious...

Service reductions are in response to passenger numbers plummeting and are intended to reduce contact between crews and passengers.

Do you really not understand why crews might not be functioning at 100% customer service with everything going on?
 
N104HR
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:50 pm

ordbosewr wrote:
Moosefire wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
This thread is about the current financial state of United, not their customer service offerings. There are other more appropriate places for that discussion.

✈️ atcsundevil


I understand your point but I do think that it’s still relevant.

I am one data point, but as there are fewer traveling ill still share my persective.

I’m flying weekly in purchased (not upgraded) F. UA platinum. The service pull downs have been matched by a noticeable lack of effort by the cabin crews (wasn’t even offered a water bottle in first). You can feel the apathy onboard, feels like oldschool US.

So here I am with every incentive to fly United (chasing 1k) and what do I do this week? Book on Delta. I’m sure there are others... and that’s gonna hit the balance sheet.

The folks still flying aren’t leisure travelers, and their loyalty is gonna matter


Is it apathy or fear of getting sick? They don't know you or where you have been. After all, you are less than 10%, that is traveling.

Sorry, but I think getting you and the crew homes safe and healthy is more important than the crew acting perky happy and making sure all of our needs are meet. If that means you don't get service for a flight, that sounds fine to me, I will not crush them.


I’m a gate agent for UA in a smaller line station, but out on leave. The fear level is huge amongst all labor groups but even higher w/the flight attendants from my experience. Understandably so because they are the ones in a metal tube with recirculating air. It is interesting you said about “loyalty is gonna matter” because that is exactly what I said during every morning briefing. Many of us are trying to do our best but with policies changing by the hour, it is very difficult to keep up and the customer is paying for it due to a grossly top heavy amount of incompetent middle management who love to make bad decisions then change them on a whim.
 
United1
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:59 pm

OB1504 wrote:
Moosefire wrote:
atcsundevil wrote:
This thread is about the current financial state of United, not their customer service offerings. There are other more appropriate places for that discussion.

✈️ atcsundevil


I understand your point but I do think that it’s still relevant.

I am one data point, but as there are fewer traveling ill still share my persective.

I’m flying weekly in purchased (not upgraded) F. UA platinum. The service pull downs have been matched by a noticeable lack of effort by the cabin crews (wasn’t even offered a water bottle in first). You can feel the apathy onboard, feels like oldschool US.

So here I am with every incentive to fly United (chasing 1k) and what do I do this week? Book on Delta. I’m sure there are others... and that’s gonna hit the balance sheet.

The folks still flying aren’t leisure travelers, and their loyalty is gonna matter


Surely you can’t be serious...

Service reductions are in response to passenger numbers plummeting and are intended to reduce contact between crews and passengers.

Do you really not understand why crews might not be functioning at 100% customer service with everything going on?


I'm also not sure why he thinks DL, AA or anyone else will have better service right now. ALL of the airlines have cut service both in the back of the bus and in F. That was done for crew and passenger safety...

I also have NO idea on what any of this has to do with UA, AA DL or WNs results this quarter...All of the airlines were tracking towards profitable Q1s and full year prior to coronavirus. None of the airlines results are currently driven by any of the service/performance measures they track..
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:27 pm

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jfklganyc
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:55 pm

This is such an important thread

It should have 100 plus replies already

Sad state of affairs on a.net

Obviously, these loses are just the beginning at UA. They have been very aggressive about cuts, very aggressive at stating how bad this is, very aggressive about stating how they will be smaller.

They are very exposed across both oceans
 
Max Q
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:08 pm

UA’s Asia Pacific exposure is significant however that is the region where this all started, particularly China of course and these countries are likely to start loosening travel restrictions before those in Europe


I believe an announcement was recently made regarding a resumption of limited Shanghai service


So hopefully this is a faint glimmer of a slow return to more service
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
tphuang
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:44 pm

It just seems to me that UA is the most exposed airline to COVID-19. It's a much larger issue right now for coastal states and for TPAC/TATL travel. All of which hits UA disproportionately compared to AA/DL/WN. So I'm not surprised Kirby has been more affront about how bad this could be and how UA has been cutting more aggressively.

It seems to me that DEN, given its geographical location and domestic relevance, should be the bright start coming out of this. But all of the other hubs have big question marks coming out.
EWR - COVID impact on NY/NJ + being east coast TATL/TPAC hub.
IAD - reduced TATL demand + weaker demand for connection traffic in the southeast
IAH - low oil price + weaker demand to south america
ORD - a lot of COVID impact in Chicago + international hub
SFO - reduced corporate spending to TPAC/TATL
LAX - same as SFO but starting from weaker position

It seems like UA is going to be weakest of the big 4 domestically coming out of this and its corporate strength in major market is also hit the hardest compared to AA/DL. Aside from getting past this industry downturn, what else can UA do domestically to help their network? UA doesn't have a ATL/DFW megahub. Nor does it have a CLT/DTW/MSP for domestic traffic. Before this, I suggested a partnership with B6, but now it seems like B6 will have closer relation with AA/AS.
 
codc10
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:24 pm

tphuang wrote:
but now it seems like B6 will have closer relation with AA/AS.


Did I miss something?
 
tphuang
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:29 pm

codc10 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
but now it seems like B6 will have closer relation with AA/AS.


Did I miss something?


They announced an interline/reprotect agreement with AA/AS for now that could be extended.

btw, the other trouble UA faces is their debt to equity ratio is not good.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... panies.asp
which limits their ability to get additional financing in the market through bond or loans. Which is probably why they've had to get additional liquidity from issuing more shares.
 
codc10
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:42 pm

tphuang wrote:
codc10 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
but now it seems like B6 will have closer relation with AA/AS.


Did I miss something?


They announced an interline/reprotect agreement with AA/AS for now that could be extended.

btw, the other trouble UA faces is their debt to equity ratio is not good.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... panies.asp
which limits their ability to get additional financing in the market through bond or loans. Which is probably why they've had to get additional liquidity from issuing more shares.


Interesting...

As for the D/E, storm clouds are on the horizon for United. It would seem to be a two-horse race for a major carrier Chapter 11, at this point, between AA and UA. AA's balance sheet is markedly worse, but it arguably has a faster route to recovery with its domestic/mid-continent strength. As you note, UA has a lot of exposure in sectors and geographies that are sucking wind, and will be for a while.
 
anair79
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:51 pm

Will UA do a Q1 2020 quarter financial results webcast?
I didn't see any announce...
Thanks
 
AA747123
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:42 pm

One of the nations big 4 DL/UA/AA/WN will likely go out of business in the next 12 months.
 
DeltaPSCFlyer
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:51 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
This is such an important thread

It should have 100 plus replies already

Sad state of affairs on a.net

Obviously, these loses are just the beginning at UA. They have been very aggressive about cuts, very aggressive at stating how bad this is, very aggressive about stating how they will be smaller.

They are very exposed across both oceans


True, however they also have very strong/close partnerships with NH and LH, too. UA doesn't have an equity stake in either (unlike DL with VS, KE, LATAM) so that can help them with codesharing revenue until they are back at full speed themselves.

AA is in the worst shape financially.
 
onwFan
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:39 am

AA747123 wrote:
One of the nations big 4 DL/UA/AA/WN will likely go out of business in the next 12 months.

The way things are headed day by day, I think we are clearly looking at another round of mergers. Hoping the big 4 stay, at least in name!
 
winginit
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Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:49 am

onwFan wrote:
AA747123 wrote:
One of the nations big 4 DL/UA/AA/WN will likely go out of business in the next 12 months.

The way things are headed day by day, I think we are clearly looking at another round of mergers. Hoping the big 4 stay, at least in name!


For those who subscribe to Wolfe Research's aviation publications, you'll note that AA and B6 were both flagged as possibilities for bankruptcy in their worst case scenario modeling.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5318
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:58 am

winginit wrote:
onwFan wrote:
AA747123 wrote:
One of the nations big 4 DL/UA/AA/WN will likely go out of business in the next 12 months.

The way things are headed day by day, I think we are clearly looking at another round of mergers. Hoping the big 4 stay, at least in name!


For those who subscribe to Wolfe Research's aviation publications, you'll note that AA and B6 were both flagged as possibilities for bankruptcy in their worst case scenario modeling.


That's weird since B6 has the second lowest debt to equity ratio before this and have publicly said they most likely don't need the additional loans gov't is offering. By my calculation, they can get to next Q2 on their current cash level without even having to secure additional loans. And their debt level and unencumbered assets should give them plenty of assets to secure more loans/debts if they were to look for it.

$3.5 billion cash (when including nearly $1 billion CARES money) can last a long time when your burn rate is $10 million a day right now.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5999
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:57 am

tphuang wrote:
winginit wrote:
onwFan wrote:
The way things are headed day by day, I think we are clearly looking at another round of mergers. Hoping the big 4 stay, at least in name!


For those who subscribe to Wolfe Research's aviation publications, you'll note that AA and B6 were both flagged as possibilities for bankruptcy in their worst case scenario modeling.


That's weird since B6 has the second lowest debt to equity ratio before this and have publicly said they most likely don't need the additional loans gov't is offering. By my calculation, they can get to next Q2 on their current cash level without even having to secure additional loans. And their debt level and unencumbered assets should give them plenty of assets to secure more loans/debts if they were to look for it.

$3.5 billion cash (when including nearly $1 billion CARES money) can last a long time when your burn rate is $10 million a day right now.



B6 isnt a BK threat, it is a takeover target
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:52 am

AA747123 wrote:
One of the nations big 4 DL/UA/AA/WN will likely go out of business in the next 12 months.


If this mess goes on for say three years, all bets are off. Within the next year, there's still the political appetite to prevent major airline bankruptcies let alone liquidations. There are too many politically sensitive states at stake to risk letting any big airline disappear in the short term.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8256
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

United posts full agreement Payroll Support Program

Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:39 am

In an 8-K filing on 4/23/20, UA posted the full text of its agreement under the CARES Act Payroll Support Program, as Exhibit 10.1

Link to that filing: https://ir.united.com/static-files/cc19 ... a6653d114c

There are some interesting details, a few of which have been discussed generally but now appear definitively in print. Layoff protections expire 9/30/20, but destination service obligations continue to 3/1/2022.

From the definitions section:

Involuntary Termination or Furlough means the Recipient terminating the employment of one or more Employees or requiring one or more Employees to
take a temporary suspension or unpaid leave for any reason, including a shut-down or slow-down of business; provided, however, that an Involuntary
Termination or Furlough does not include a Permitted Termination or Furlough.

Permitted Termination or Furlough means, with respect to an Employee, (1) a voluntary furlough, voluntary leave of absence, voluntary resignation, or
voluntary retirement, (2) termination of employment resulting from such Employee’s death or disability, or (3) the Recipient terminating the employment of
such Employee for cause or placing such Employee on a temporary suspension or unpaid leave of absence for disciplinary reasons, in either case, as
reasonably determined by the Recipient acting in good faith.

Employee means an individual who is employed by the Recipient and whose principal place of employment is in the United States (including its territories
and possessions), including salaried, hourly, full-time, part-time, temporary, and leased employees, but excluding any individual who is a Corporate Officer
or independent contractor.


Obligations

a. Furloughs and Layoffs. The Recipient shall not conduct an Involuntary Termination or Furlough of any Employee between the date of this
Agreement and September 30, 2020.
b. Employee Salary, Wages, and Benefits
i. Salary and Wages. Except in the case of a Permitted Termination or Furlough, the Recipient shall not, between the date of this
Agreement and September 30, 2020, reduce, without the Employee’s consent, (A) the pay rate of any Employee earning a Salary, or
(B) the pay rate of any Employee earning Wages.

5. Through September 30, 2021, neither the Recipient nor any Affiliate shall, in any transaction, purchase an equity security of the Recipient or of any
direct or indirect parent company of the Recipient that, in either case, is listed on a national securities exchange.
6. Through September 30, 2021, the Recipient shall not pay dividends, or make any other capital distributions, with respect to the common stock (or
equivalent equity interest) of the Recipient.

10. If the Recipient is an air carrier, until March 1, 2022, the Recipient shall comply with any applicable requirement issued by the Secretary of
Transportation under section 4114(b) of the CARES Act to maintain scheduled air transportation service to any point served by the Recipient before
March 1, 2020.

Remedies
22. If Treasury believes that an instance of noncompliance by the Recipient or an Affiliate with (a) this Agreement, (b) sections 4114 or 4116 of the
CARES Act, or (c) the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 as it applies to the receipt of Payroll Support has occurred, Treasury may notify the Recipient in
writing of its proposed determination of noncompliance, provide an explanation of the nature of the noncompliance, and specify a proposed remedy.
Upon receipt of such notice, the Recipient shall, within seven days, accept Treasury’s proposed remedy, propose an alternative remedy, or provide
information and documentation contesting Treasury’s proposed determination. Treasury shall consider any such submission by the Recipient and make
a final written determination, which will state Treasury’s findings regarding noncompliance and the remedy to be imposed.

23. If Treasury makes a final determination under paragraph 22 that an instance of noncompliance has occurred, Treasury may, in its sole discretion,
withhold any Additional Payroll Support Payments; require the repayment of the amount of any previously disbursed Payroll Support, with appropriate
interest; require additional reporting or monitoring; initiate suspension or debarment proceedings as authorized under 2 CFR Part 180; terminate this
Agreement; or take any such other action as Treasury, in its sole discretion, deems appropriate.

Protections for Whistleblowers
34. In addition to other applicable whistleblower protections, in accordance with 41 U.S.C. § 4712, the Recipient shall not discharge, demote, or otherwise
discriminate against an Employee as a reprisal for disclosing information to a Person listed below that the Employee reasonably believes is evidence of
gross mismanagement of a Federal contract or grant, a gross waste of Federal funds, an abuse of authority relating to a Federal contract or grant, a
substantial and specific danger to public health or safety, or a violation of law, rule, or regulation related to a Federal contract (including the
competition for or negotiation of a contract) or grant:
a. A Member of Congress or a representative of a committee of Congress;
b. An Inspector General;
c. The Government Accountability Office;
d. A Treasury employee responsible for contract or grant oversight or management;
e. An authorized official of the Department of Justice or other law enforcement agency;
f. A court or grand jury; or
g. A management official or other Employee of the Recipient who has the responsibility to investigate, discover, or address misconduct


So, yes, the government has a mechanism to get its money back.

It looks like mandatory unpaid days for salaried employees are prohibited but I'm not a lawyer, nor do I play one on TV.
 
jayunited
Posts: 2958
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: United posts full agreement Payroll Support Program

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:16 pm

United reduced management employees pay long before this agreement existed. The key area or the legal loophole is "The Date of this Agreement" and the date United enter into this agreement with the government was April 20, 2020.

I now understand why Delta required their nonunion staff to take an extra day or two off without pay equaling a 25% pay cut before the agreement. Until the airline signed on the line they were free to do what ever they wanted, and United Airlines didn't enter into this agreement with the government until earlier this week anything that took place before United signed is absolute fair game this includes reducing salaried employees pay.

If United had not reduced management (salaried employees) pay prior to entering this agreement then they would not be able to reduce their pay now because now the agreement is in effect and United has the CAREs act funds.

Also keep in mind the government didn't draft this language on it own every major airline CEO was present in the White House multiple times, they were working with members of Congress Treasury, and DOT. They knew the details of the agreement long before the public, they knew what steps they needed to take before entering into the agreement with the government because they help write the agreement. I was shocked by Delta's move to reduce frontline employees hours but now it doesn't shock me any longer because every major carrier in the US help write this bailout package. What other industry in America got a chance to help write the terms of their own bailout besides big banks?
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8256
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United posts full agreement Payroll Support Program

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:45 pm

You can assert they 'helped write it.' Hey, every meaningful piece of legislation gets influenced by lobbyists.

It's a lot tougher to argue that carriers got just what they wanted. My evidence:

30% of PSP funds as loans, not grants

forced to issue stock warrants to the government at prices from 4/9/20, less than 1/3 the price of UAL's 52-week high

must continue to serve destinations

the Notices of Action that seem to come as a shock to a.netters that determine, yes, indeed, carriers must continue to serve destinations in spite of Exemption Requests
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4324
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:19 pm

Not sure why the moderators keep deleting this, as it is highly relevant.

According to the union, United is potentially attempting to reduce all employees to part-time, which violates the spirit of the CARES act.

Image

https://www.facebook.com/IAMAWDistrict1 ... 995404880/
 
jayunited
Posts: 2958
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:51 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
Not sure why the moderators keep deleting this, as it is highly relevant.

According to the union, United is potentially attempting to reduce all employees to part-time, which violates the spirit of the CARES act.



They keep deleting it because it is not true United Airlines is in negotiations with the union to discuss steps to be taken AFTER September 30th. Any changes or concessions would not take effect until after the CARES act agreement. This is why I'm happy to be out of the union because lies like these do nothing but destroy the relationship and trust United has worked to hard to build with employees. The IAM is doing this to try and gain some sort of leverage because they understand how important improving employee relations is here at United. Instead of being helpful and truthful with their membership the IAM instead decides to lie and say United is trying to reduce all employees to part-time.

The truth is this United has offered all ground unions a choice that would save a lot of jobs come October 1st. From my understanding the offer to all ground unions was to temporarily reduce all their memberships hours by half to keep as many people employed as possible. From my understanding the dispatchers union already told United no, not going to happen so the next step then becomes negotiating layoffs and pay reductions that would take effect October 1st. United is in the same discussions with the IAM as well and has made the same offer to temporarily reduce employees schedule starting October 1st to keep as many people employed as possible, if the IAM says no then negotiations will go in a different direction.

United has made it no secret that sacrifices will have to be made come October 1st. I hope the IAM is preparing its membership for the hard times ahead but this letter makes it seem like the only thing the IAM is interested in is spreading lies and destroying employee relations.
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4324
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:30 pm

jayunited wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
Not sure why the moderators keep deleting this, as it is highly relevant.

According to the union, United is potentially attempting to reduce all employees to part-time, which violates the spirit of the CARES act.



They keep deleting it because it is not true United Airlines is in negotiations with the union to discuss steps to be taken AFTER September 30th. Any changes or concessions would not take effect until after the CARES act agreement. This is why I'm happy to be out of the union because lies like these do nothing but destroy the relationship and trust United has worked to hard to build with employees. The IAM is doing this to try and gain some sort of leverage because they understand how important improving employee relations is here at United. Instead of being helpful and truthful with their membership the IAM instead decides to lie and say United is trying to reduce all employees to part-time.

The truth is this United has offered all ground unions a choice that would save a lot of jobs come October 1st. From my understanding the offer to all ground unions was to temporarily reduce all their memberships hours by half to keep as many people employed as possible. From my understanding the dispatchers union already told United no, not going to happen so the next step then becomes negotiating layoffs and pay reductions that would take effect October 1st. United is in the same discussions with the IAM as well and has made the same offer to temporarily reduce employees schedule starting October 1st to keep as many people employed as possible, if the IAM says no then negotiations will go in a different direction.

United has made it no secret that sacrifices will have to be made come October 1st. I hope the IAM is preparing its membership for the hard times ahead but this letter makes it seem like the only thing the IAM is interested in is spreading lies and destroying employee relations.


Well on our conference call yesterday this exact topic came up as a question, and senior leadership said all options are still on the table regarding cutting costs and they ended the answer with that. They didn't say it was not true, they didn't sound surprised at the question, and they gave a very generic answer. Sounds like there may be some truth to these so-called lies?
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 105
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:00 pm

jayunited wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
Not sure why the moderators keep deleting this, as it is highly relevant.

According to the union, United is potentially attempting to reduce all employees to part-time, which violates the spirit of the CARES act.



They keep deleting it because it is not true United Airlines is in negotiations with the union to discuss steps to be taken AFTER September 30th. Any changes or concessions would not take effect until after the CARES act agreement. This is why I'm happy to be out of the union because lies like these do nothing but destroy the relationship and trust United has worked to hard to build with employees. The IAM is doing this to try and gain some sort of leverage because they understand how important improving employee relations is here at United. Instead of being helpful and truthful with their membership the IAM instead decides to lie and say United is trying to reduce all employees to part-time.

The truth is this United has offered all ground unions a choice that would save a lot of jobs come October 1st. From my understanding the offer to all ground unions was to temporarily reduce all their memberships hours by half to keep as many people employed as possible. From my understanding the dispatchers union already told United no, not going to happen so the next step then becomes negotiating layoffs and pay reductions that would take effect October 1st. United is in the same discussions with the IAM as well and has made the same offer to temporarily reduce employees schedule starting October 1st to keep as many people employed as possible, if the IAM says no then negotiations will go in a different direction.

United has made it no secret that sacrifices will have to be made come October 1st. I hope the IAM is preparing its membership for the hard times ahead but this letter makes it seem like the only thing the IAM is interested in is spreading lies and destroying employee relations.


I’m somewhat surprised dispatch would say no. I guess they might eventually concede but you don’t just give in that easy in negotiations
 
jayunited
Posts: 2958
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:32 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:

Well on our conference call yesterday this exact topic came up as a question, and senior leadership said all options are still on the table regarding cutting costs and they ended the answer with that. They didn't say it was not true, they didn't sound surprised at the question, and they gave a very generic answer. Sounds like there may be some truth to these so-called lies?


Don't take this personally because it isn't a personal attack.

The terms and conditions of the CARES act are clear United can not make changes now that the agreement is in place until October 1st and people need to read the terms and conditions and the stiff penalties airlines face if they violate the terms and conditions. Leadership is correct all options are on the table starting October 1st. What the IAM has done is mix both the truth with a lie. The lie being United is trying to force changes prior to October 1st. The truth is United did approach all ground unions (not just the IAM) to discuss reducing all ground union employees to part-time starting October 1st to save as many jobs as possible. However that is not what the IAM letter states and the threat of legal action just bolsters the IAM's lie because the IAM knows that if their membership doesn't take the time to actually ready their personal contract they won't read the CARES act in its entirety. The threat of legal action is nothing more than smoke and mirrors so the IAM will appear as though they are doing something.

If I were still in the IAM my question to the IAM would be what are the details of their counter proposal? Offering to increase, expand and enhance voluntary programs will not get United Airlines to where the company needs to be come October 1st. If the IAM is leading their membership to believe that United can weather this storm past October 1st with just voluntary programs only then they are doing a disservice to their membership. The last numbers I saw concerning UA's voluntary programs were 20,000 employees have taken advantage of those programs. This means United is down to about 75,000 active employees that sounds great by itself. But when you look at next months schedule it becomes clear voluntary programs are not enough. For the entire month of May based on the updated schedule United and UAX combined will only operate a total of 572 flights.. Does the IAM really believe the company will achieve the necessary cost savings through voluntary programs come October 1st? Instead of coming up with a workable plan or a serious counter proposal for their membership the IAM has decided to lie to its membership by having them believe the company can achieve necessary cost savings through voluntary programs. The truth is there will be no significant recovery in demand by October 1st, United's May schedule represents a 90% reduction in flying. By October 1st perhaps 40% maybe 50% will have been recovered if we are lucky but last I heard United was looking at about a 40% recovery as a best case scenario by the fall.
 
jayunited
Posts: 2958
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:47 am

jetmatt777 wrote:
How are voluntary programs not enough when the entire payroll is covered by grants from Apr - Sep? At that point it doesn't matter if United operates 1 flight a day or 5,000 - the labor cost is being carried by the taxpayers.

Can you tell me where in this it mentions hour will/can not be reduced?

"Pursuant to the PSP Agreement, United and its affiliates will be required to comply with certain provisions of the CARES Act, including, among others, the requirement that all funds provided under the Payroll Support Program will be used by UAL exclusively for the continuation of payment of its employee wages, salaries and benefits; requirements to maintain employment levels through September 30, 2020; provisions prohibiting certain reductions in employee wages, salaries and benefits; provisions prohibiting the payment of dividends and the repurchase of certain equity until September 30, 2021; audit and reporting requirements; provisions to comply with certain continuation of service requirements until March 1, 2022; and provisions restricting the payment of certain executive compensation until March 24, 2022."

It doesn't. It just says jobs won't be lost. Part time has the same benefits and pay scale as full time, so a reduction to part time does not impact one's benefits or wages. I completely expect some shady maneuvering by United, they always have dealt underhanded - you should know this. I hope you are right, but history tells me the opposite with United.


United Airlines is not trying to reduce their union employees pay before October 1st. United has just started the negotiation process with all its unions trying to negotiate an agreement that will go into effect on October 1st. United is not trying to force involuntary pay cuts/reduction in hours on union employees before October 1st. In fact quite the opposite is true United is paying union employees across the system to stay home. Union employes are getting their full 40 hour/week pay check while staying home watching Netflix. United's offer was a starting point to try and keep as many employees on the job as possible. If the IAM rejects that offer (it seems as though they have) then the IAM needs to come back with a reasonable counter proposal and not say they believe the company can achieve the necessary cost saving through expanded voluntary programs because the IAM already knows voluntary programs will not be enough.

Of the 20,000 employees who are already participating in the voluntary programs how many of them are IAM represented employees? Once the CARES act protection is over will United still need 20,000+ IAM represented employees on the payroll if we are only flying 40% of our normal schedule? The IAM is deceiving its membership if they are leading them to believe they will escape this crisis unscathed through voluntary programs. If the IAM does not believe a temporary reduction from full-time to part-time is in their members best interest that is okay. However then the IAM has a duty to prepare their members for the hard truths which will include furloughs and reduction in pay. I wonder how many IAM represented employees know about the "Act of God" clause in their contract? A contract they approved overwhelmingly because of the money. United could enact the clause in all fairness enact because COVID-19 was not United Airlines fault. That clause if enacted carries with it serious repercussions that I'm not sure many IAM members understand. So instead of misleading their membership the IAM should be insisting their membership read the contract in its entirety, and the IAM should be asking its membership for helpful ideas.

In my opinion if there is no agreement by October 1st United may give negotiations an additional 30 days but after that if the situation has not improved I can see United activating the Act of God clause in the IAM's contract.

The only other way I know how to make my point is like this. If there were no CARES act and the airlines were on their own do you believe United would be paying union employees their full salary to stay home or would drastic measures have already been taken? This is what United faces come October 1st when the CARES act runs out. I can promise you this, come October 1st United will NOT be paying union employees to stay home.

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