Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
JammyBritton27
Topic Author
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:28 pm

Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:19 pm

2019 was a year of revival when the company expanded the fleet, launched new services and initiated steps to achieve operational efficiency.

Despite heavy capital spending, Spirit ended the year with a decent cash balance of $1.1 billion, which makes it better positioned to deal with the crisis than others. The company generated cash flow of $409 million in 2019. What's your thoughts?

https://news.alphastreet.com/spirit-air ... ite-risks/
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 10252
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:29 pm

JammyBritton27 wrote:
2019 was a year of revival when the company expanded the fleet, launched new services and initiated steps to achieve operational efficiency.

Despite heavy capital spending, Spirit ended the year with a decent cash balance of $1.1 billion, which makes it better positioned to deal with the crisis than others. The company generated cash flow of $409 million in 2019. What's your thoughts?

https://news.alphastreet.com/spirit-air ... ite-risks/

IMHO F9 and NK need a vaccine to really thrive again. Both carriers are dependent on markets that are largely incompatible with social distancing.
 
User avatar
FLALEFTY
Posts: 771
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:33 am

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:18 am

JammyBritton27 wrote:
2019 was a year of revival when the company expanded the fleet, launched new services and initiated steps to achieve operational efficiency.

Despite heavy capital spending, Spirit ended the year with a decent cash balance of $1.1 billion, which makes it better positioned to deal with the crisis than others. The company generated cash flow of $409 million in 2019. What's your thoughts?

https://news.alphastreet.com/spirit-air ... ite-risks/


Spirit has taken so much heat in the past for poor service, but in recent years they have been cleaning their act up nicely. Back in coach, the gap has closed differentiating NK from the legacies. They also have a newer fleet. I really hope they have the ability to ride out this COVID crisis.

The problem is that the government rescue money is contingent on Spirit maintaining a defined level of service. They are a VFR airline, first and are not popular with business road warriors, who would be the main ones even wanting to travel now. This means they would have to burn copious amouts of cash flying near-empty planes. Not a good prospect.
 
User avatar
SierraPacific
Posts: 435
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 1:48 am

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:24 am

I am going to go against the grain here. From looking at beaches in Florida, it looks like Spirit customers will be the most eager to travel :duck:
 
Karlsands
Posts: 229
Joined: Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:53 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:32 am

SierraPacific wrote:
I am going to go against the grain here. From looking at beaches in Florida, it looks like Spirit customers will be the most eager to travel :duck:

Only one beach is open.
 
catiii
Posts: 3584
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:18 am

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:41 am

Im not sure that incredibly restricted fares with absolute minimum personal space is a winning strategy for a carrier in the new normal (whatever that is) but kudos to the OP for having an agenda and cut and pasting an "analyst" note.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 227
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:12 am

SierraPacific wrote:
I am going to go against the grain here. From looking at beaches in Florida, it looks like Spirit customers will be the most eager to travel :duck:

Well the beaches aren’t quite as packed as the media wants you to think.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19998
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:40 am

Thread title changed to reflect an aviation topic. Discussing the survivability of an airline, who will fly to where, and the resources to recover is appropriate for this forum. Please take other discussion to non aviation
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
MR27122
Posts: 133
Joined: Sat May 06, 2017 3:00 am

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:14 am

Karlsands wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
I am going to go against the grain here. From looking at beaches in Florida, it looks like Spirit customers will be the most eager to travel :duck:

Only one beach is open.


I inferred it differently. Not so much Florida Beaches as targeted Sprit Customer. Besides..wouldn't Spirt Customers be pre-conditioned upon arrival to be satisfied w/ only one beach w/ standing room only?
 
crownvic
Posts: 2689
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:16 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:01 am

enilria wrote:
JammyBritton27 wrote:
2019 was a year of revival when the company expanded the fleet, launched new services and initiated steps to achieve operational efficiency.

Despite heavy capital spending, Spirit ended the year with a decent cash balance of $1.1 billion, which makes it better positioned to deal with the crisis than others. The company generated cash flow of $409 million in 2019. What's your thoughts?

https://news.alphastreet.com/spirit-air ... ite-risks/

IMHO F9 and NK need a vaccine to really thrive again. Both carriers are dependent on markets that are largely incompatible with social distancing.


With all do respect, I have to disagree with you on that statement. It is my opinion that local travel will recover before long haul travel. That means, DL, AA and UA are more exposed to this virus, than NK, FR, WN and AS. With grounded fleets, I would rather be making payments on Toyota Camry's (aka an A320s and 737s), than making payments on a bunch of Aston Martin's (A350s, 773s and 787s). People are going to be hesitant to begin long haul travel for fear of what happened this past month with foreign laws, how they were treated and the potential for being stranded overseas. Domestic travel has much less risks when people are uneasy and they know they are going to be off the plane in a much shorter time than on a long haul flight. If there is another lock down, domestically, there is always the option to rent a car, take bus or use a train to get home. There are a lot more variables to deal with in international travel vs. domestic travel.
 
drdisque
Posts: 1319
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2007 9:57 am

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:02 am

People will want to visit their relatives who live in other cities. This type of discretionary flying will come back first. This supports their now primary strategy of "near daily flights between big cities".
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:29 am

enilria wrote:
JammyBritton27 wrote:
2019 was a year of revival when the company expanded the fleet, launched new services and initiated steps to achieve operational efficiency.

Despite heavy capital spending, Spirit ended the year with a decent cash balance of $1.1 billion, which makes it better positioned to deal with the crisis than others. The company generated cash flow of $409 million in 2019. What's your thoughts?

https://news.alphastreet.com/spirit-air ... ite-risks/

IMHO F9 and NK need a vaccine to really thrive again. Both carriers are dependent on markets that are largely incompatible with social distancing.


And their high density, high utilization business model seems especially fraught if by this time 2021 people still expect blocked middle seats and thorough cabin disinfection between every flight.
 
dopplerd
Posts: 105
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:30 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:39 am

The ULCCs came out of the great recession larger than they went in. If the current crisis is a short term health challenge followed by a longer term financial one then NK will be OK. If the health crisis carries on through the summer then all bets are off. Business and long range travel is discretionary but people will still scrape to go to weddings, birthdays, family gatherings, etc within the US. That is where NK can fill a nitch.

I think the minimum service airports can be handled fairly cheaply with a little creativity.

A few options:
Instead of overflying these cities you just have a currently scheduled route make a stop once or twice a week. There is a ton of slack in the schedule so adding 2 hours to a flight will not be an issue for the fleet.

Milk run flight that hits a bunch of the secondary cities.

Finally, and most interesting option, would be for Spirit, Jet Blue, Frontier, Alaska, and Allegiant to code share on flights to these cities so that empty capacity can be maximized (I'll admit I haven't looked with a lot of detail into how much over lap there is between carriers and cities to make this work.)
 
nkops
Posts: 2236
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2005 10:09 am

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:49 am

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronaviru ... story.html

looks like Spirit is finalizing the deal for federal aid
Turn left heading 080 contact departure
 
pmanni1
Posts: 245
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:17 am

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:28 am

SierraPacific wrote:
I am going to go against the grain here. From looking at beaches in Florida, it looks like Spirit customers will be the most eager to travel :duck:

Millions of people out of work and unable to pay mortgage or rent would indicate that there's not going to be much demand for leisure travel.
 
kaitak
Posts: 9906
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:33 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
I am going to go against the grain here. From looking at beaches in Florida, it looks like Spirit customers will be the most eager to travel :duck:

Millions of people out of work and unable to pay mortgage or rent would indicate that there's not going to be much demand for leisure travel.


But when they do, they will be very price conscious and it will be for all carriers to spur the market; Spirit and its ilk (and I include European short haulers like FR and Wizz) will be in a better position to do that ... pile 'em high and sell 'em cheap. To borrow a quote from a famous movie, they'll need bravado, a touch of derring do!

There will be some initial restrictions, such as keeping the middle seat free and getting pax to use face masks; practically all airlines will make losses for the third and fourth quarters, most likely into the first quarter of next year, but as the Covid crisis eases off and confidence returns - particularly confidence in aviation - then I think the limitations will ease off. It's going to take a long time to recover, but I think Low Cost carriers can benefit a lot more quickly than legacy carriers.
 
catiii
Posts: 3584
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:18 am

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:18 pm

kaitak wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
I am going to go against the grain here. From looking at beaches in Florida, it looks like Spirit customers will be the most eager to travel :duck:

Millions of people out of work and unable to pay mortgage or rent would indicate that there's not going to be much demand for leisure travel.


But when they do, they will be very price conscious and it will be for all carriers to spur the market; Spirit and its ilk (and I include European short haulers like FR and Wizz) will be in a better position to do that ... pile 'em high and sell 'em cheap. To borrow a quote from a famous movie, they'll need bravado, a touch of derring do!

There will be some initial restrictions, such as keeping the middle seat free and getting pax to use face masks; practically all airlines will make losses for the third and fourth quarters, most likely into the first quarter of next year, but as the Covid crisis eases off and confidence returns - particularly confidence in aviation - then I think the limitations will ease off. It's going to take a long time to recover, but I think Low Cost carriers can benefit a lot more quickly than legacy carriers.


I agree with your point on demand returning, but I disagree that a model built on the lack of flexibility in bookings, and on a lack of social distancing with 28" pitch will be a winning model.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4753
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:28 pm

Let's be honest the legacy carriers don't have Any more room betweens seats these days than spirit. They are all in the same boat.

They are all in trouble but leisure traffic has to come back sooner than business. No matter what that is a given. This works in sprits favor.

Spirit has alot of cash for their size I don't see them in the worst shape here. They are also smaller easier to consolidate flights and not as many connections to worry about rescheduling etc. This will be the largest issue they have ever faced but I see it naturally easier for them then the 3 legacy carriers. It's way more complicated for them and spirit has cash if they come up with a plan to weather the storm.
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 145
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:41 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Let's be honest the legacy carriers don't have Any more room betweens seats these days than spirit. They are all in the same boat.

They are all in trouble but leisure traffic has to come back sooner than business. No matter what that is a given. This works in sprits favor.

Spirit has alot of cash for their size I don't see them in the worst shape here. They are also smaller easier to consolidate flights and not as many connections to worry about rescheduling etc. This will be the largest issue they have ever faced but I see it naturally easier for them then the 3 legacy carriers. It's way more complicated for them and spirit has cash if they come up with a plan to weather the storm.


I agree. Is the extra 2 inches of pitch between AA/NK going to make a difference in bookings due to being "too close"? Doubtful. Especially when those 2 inches are lost as soon as someone reclines into you.
Even if middle seats were to be blocked off, an A321 for NK would still have 163 seats compared to 126 seats on AA's densest configuration.
 
UWPAviation
Posts: 144
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2016 7:36 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:46 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
I am going to go against the grain here. From looking at beaches in Florida, it looks like Spirit customers will be the most eager to travel :duck:

Millions of people out of work and unable to pay mortgage or rent would indicate that there's not going to be much demand for leisure travel.


Millions of people are out of work and unable to pay mortgages, rent, groceries etc. But there is hundreds of millions more who are largely unaffected by the crisis. I know dozens of people who had spring/early summer vacations postponed who are all very vocal bout going on vacation in the fall now.
 
Mikeer50
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:54 pm

Spirits problem may be with lower load factors their ancillary revenue will be much much lower. I don’t have the numbers, but it’s usually assumed that Spirit relies on this form of revenue more than the legacys and even the LCCs. You could put 400 seats in an 321, but if only 30 tickets are bought that’s a lot less bag, seat, drink, food, change, etc, fees that will be collected.
 
santi319
Posts: 1021
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:12 pm

Mikeer50 wrote:
Spirits problem may be with lower load factors their ancillary revenue will be much much lower. I don’t have the numbers, but it’s usually assumed that Spirit relies on this form of revenue more than the legacys and even the LCCs. You could put 400 seats in an 321, but if only 30 tickets are bought that’s a lot less bag, seat, drink, food, change, etc, fees that will be collected.

I disagree “400 seats” on an a321 does NOT mean 400 bags and 400 drinks. Lets say a family checks what? Two bags? For a family of 4 or a couple still carries a carryon bag each. Your logic makes no sense.

If anything having a 228 A321 with middle seats blocked works A LOT MORE. Than having a 190 A321 with the middle seat blocked.

Historically, LCC have always prevailed in an economic crisis, why would this be different?
 
Mikeer50
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:20 pm

santi319 wrote:
Mikeer50 wrote:
Spirits problem may be with lower load factors their ancillary revenue will be much much lower. I don’t have the numbers, but it’s usually assumed that Spirit relies on this form of revenue more than the legacys and even the LCCs. You could put 400 seats in an 321, but if only 30 tickets are bought that’s a lot less bag, seat, drink, food, change, etc, fees that will be collected.

I disagree “400 seats” on an a321 does NOT mean 400 bags and 400 drinks. Lets say a family checks what? Two bags? For a family of 4 or a couple still carries a carryon bag each. Your logic makes no sense.

If anything having a 228 A321 with middle seats blocked works A LOT MORE. Than having a 190 A321 with the middle seat blocked.

Historically, LCC have always prevailed in an economic crisis, why would this be different?


I agree with some of what you are saying, but what percentage of revenue comes from ancillary fees at Spirit? (I really don’t know exactly). If the planes are mostly empty that revenue just won’t be there. Also, this is an economic downturn unlike any other. Nothing has ever been remotely close. I don’t feel past performance is much of an indicator of what will happen this time.

Bottom line is EVERYONE is incredibly screwed. We are really splitting hairs here. It is just a battle of attrition and survival at this point.
 
santi319
Posts: 1021
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:22 pm

Mikeer50 wrote:

Bottom line is EVERYONE is incredibly screwed. We are really splitting hairs here. It is just a battle of attrition and survival at this point.


I agree, absolutely! It really could go either way.
 
CriticalPoint
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:01 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:35 pm

No one is going to give a crap about social distancing once everything opens back up. The world isn’t big enough for everyone to keep 6 feet apart. The only people that are going to “try” to social distance are the paranoid. The world doesn’t work when society social distances. Anyone who thinks that this is the new normal and that airlines will have to block all middle seats has fallen into being a sheep and is headed for the cliff at full speed. Blocking the middle seat or staying 6 feet apart does not protect you from a sneeze or a cough or the person that was just in your new space a few minutes prior to you.

Social distance is only a thing when society is locked down like today.
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1497
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:10 pm

UWPAviation wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
I am going to go against the grain here. From looking at beaches in Florida, it looks like Spirit customers will be the most eager to travel :duck:

Millions of people out of work and unable to pay mortgage or rent would indicate that there's not going to be much demand for leisure travel.


Millions of people are out of work and unable to pay mortgages, rent, groceries etc. But there is hundreds of millions more who are largely unaffected by the crisis. I know dozens of people who had spring/early summer vacations postponed who are all very vocal bout going on vacation in the fall now.



As soon as hotels are reliably open and National Parks are open, we are going on a 3 week road tour of a lifetime.
 
AEROFAN
Posts: 1859
Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:47 am

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:12 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
I am going to go against the grain here. From looking at beaches in Florida, it looks like Spirit customers will be the most eager to travel :duck:

Millions of people out of work and unable to pay mortgage or rent would indicate that there's not going to be much demand for leisure travel.


Those millions of people out of work were not going to travel anyhow as travel calls for discretionary income. Those who were going to travel will still travel and will do so after a semblance of a reasonable all clear signal.
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.” ~Harlan Ellison~
 
F9Animal
Posts: 4423
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:13 am

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:35 pm

I think we all knew a downturn was coming. I mean, it is a cycle that seems to happen in this industry. Smart airlines stacked away cash in case it did come. Unfortunately, this has to be one of the biggest downturns we have ever witnessed.

With that said, things will eventually go back up. It's gonna take some time for sure. I feel confident that Spirit will come out of this. All of the majors will too. The weak ones are the most concerning.

People will get back to work soon. And cheeks will fill seats again. I don't know about you guys, but I need a vacation something terrible after all this crap!
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
tphuang
Posts: 5199
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:51 pm

What NK does here will be really interesting.

F9 has already made their move. They are becoming a lot more like NK in their network:
1) from mostly 2x/3x/4x weekly to now 5x weekly to daily flights
2) from random dart board with too many stations to everything concentrating around DEN/LAS/Florida/CUN
3) dramatically reducing or exiting from some high cost markets in LAX/EWR

The question is can we have both F9 and NK operating basically the same strategy coming out of this into an environment where leisure travel to places that don't have social distancing might scare people.
- neither have big presence on west coast outside of flights to LAS (or DEN in F9's case)
- both do a lot of northeast or middle of country to Florida flights
- both now focus in on several key markets vs dartboard strategy everywhere.

IN a reduced market, can we really handle more ULCC capacity in the west coast to LAS or east coast to south florida/orlando than 2019?
 
User avatar
aemoreira1981
Posts: 3575
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:52 pm

Spirit does actually have a significant amount of year-round routes. I suspect that things will have somewhat recovered for the winter season when it matters. Frontier though, with virtually its entire fleet leased...and with lease payments due...could be in more trouble.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5199
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:03 pm

Keep in mind what is happening in China could be foreboding of what happens here. Domestic business demand is back. Domestic VFR is back. Domestic leisure right now is non-existence. That's why domestic demand is stuck at 45% even though they have very few cases right now.

If that replicates in America, which means people take short trips to the cottage or local beaches instead of going to Disney or vegas, large parts of NK/F9's route network will have minuscule demand.

Another reason WN is best positioned through this.
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 145
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:25 pm

tphuang wrote:
Keep in mind what is happening in China could be foreboding of what happens here. Domestic business demand is back. Domestic VFR is back. Domestic leisure right now is non-existence. That's why domestic demand is stuck at 45% even though they have very few cases right now.

If that replicates in America, which means people take short trips to the cottage or local beaches instead of going to Disney or vegas, large parts of NK/F9's route network will have minuscule demand.

Another reason WN is best positioned through this.


I definitely agree that WN is best positioned in the USA between their finances, business model, and route structure.
I don't think we'll mirror China too much though as their culture and demographics are vastly different to the USA.
And if we are at 45% pre covid levels in a few months, I think that'd be a great relief but it will very likely be lower.
According to some of what I was reading, airlines are offering fares as low as $1, running promotions such as 6 seats for the price of one for social distancing, family passes that allow a family of 3-5 to travel 12 times during the year for only $680.
If that's what it takes to get to 45%, airlines are all pretty screwed... especially those with a high cost structure.
 
n7371f
Posts: 1825
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:51 am

I would think the lavish HQ building needs to go for now.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:50 pm

Unemployed people do not travel. The question is how long we the US have sustained high unemployment? If a year or longer the ULCCs I believe are in trouble. They can't fly around even 70% full planes with $49 fares. They need a butt in every seat or just about.

Forget about social distancing. No airline is going to do that. I flew yesterday and F was completely full, no crew.
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 145
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:27 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
Unemployed people do not travel. The question is how long we the US have sustained high unemployment? If a year or longer the ULCCs I believe are in trouble. They can't fly around even 70% full planes with $49 fares. They need a butt in every seat or just about.

Forget about social distancing. No airline is going to do that. I flew yesterday and F was completely full, no crew.


I just checked about 10 different DL flights that departed this morning. Most had between 0-2 paid F pax and the rest were nonrevs. Only one had no nonrevenue customers, but 18 out of the 20 seats were complimentary upgrades.I don't think the full F cabins mean a thing for revenue right now.

And LCC/ULCC have lower break even load factors than legacies, FYI.

No one knows how this will pan out, but I would guess WN is by far in the best position. Legacies probably in the worst spot.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5954
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:30 pm

Karlsands wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
I am going to go against the grain here. From looking at beaches in Florida, it looks like Spirit customers will be the most eager to travel :duck:

Only one beach is open.



NOT TRUE AT ALL!

Some never closed.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4981
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:44 pm

dopplerd wrote:
The ULCCs came out of the great recession larger than they went in. If the current crisis is a short term health challenge followed by a longer term financial one then NK will be OK. If the health crisis carries on through the summer then all bets are off. Business and long range travel is discretionary but people will still scrape to go to weddings, birthdays, family gatherings, etc within the US. That is where NK can fill a nitch.

I think the minimum service airports can be handled fairly cheaply with a little creativity.

A few options:
Instead of overflying these cities you just have a currently scheduled route make a stop once or twice a week. There is a ton of slack in the schedule so adding 2 hours to a flight will not be an issue for the fleet.

Milk run flight that hits a bunch of the secondary cities.

Finally, and most interesting option, would be for Spirit, Jet Blue, Frontier, Alaska, and Allegiant to code share on flights to these cities so that empty capacity can be maximized (I'll I haven't looked with a lot of detail into how much over lap there is between carriers and cities to make this work.)

How about just code sharing in General? Alaska is already code sharing with American. and American already Has as many routes as all of these other guys you mention. And none of the milk runs you mention take into account the American Eagle, Delta connection , or United Express routes and feeds to the major hubs. And they fly those routes Daily!!
 
Karlsands
Posts: 229
Joined: Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:53 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:29 am

jfklganyc wrote:
Karlsands wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
I am going to go against the grain here. From looking at beaches in Florida, it looks like Spirit customers will be the most eager to travel :duck:

Only one beach is open.



NOT TRUE AT ALL!

Some never closed.

Only a few in Jacksonville. Look into it
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4753
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:05 am

Yeah frontiers strategy of becoming less like allegiant and more like spirit might be temporary though.

No matter what frontier and spirit should be easier ships to steer thru this storm in theory than the legacies.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5954
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:54 am

Karlsands wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Karlsands wrote:
Only one beach is open.



NOT TRUE AT ALL!

Some never closed.

Only a few in Jacksonville. Look into it


I dont need to look into it.

I look out at one...not in Jax. Pretty famous too
 
UPNYGuy
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 4:14 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:31 pm

Spirit is going to be fine.

I have a financials graph that I can’t upload. No idea why.

It is in here....

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433917 ... to-survive
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 145
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:21 pm

UPNYGuy wrote:
Spirit is going to be fine.

I have a financials graph that I can’t upload. No idea why.

It is in here....

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433917 ... to-survive


I think Spirit might be in a slightly better position than some other airlines, but don't think that anyone will "be fine" in the near future. Next few months should bring a little clarity to much of the industry.
Though I do think there's some good info in some seekingalpha articles, keep in mind that SA is basically the financial equivalent of A.net.
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 145
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:31 pm

I'm hearing that Spirit is tentatively planning on operating around 70% of their pre covid schedule starting in July.
That's a pretty impressive number, and if true, they could be back to 100% by the end of the year.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5199
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:45 pm

That seems unlikely viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1446987
OAG thread has their cuts for July. That does not look like a 70% pre-COVID schedule. I could see a 50% schedule though. It's also pretty hard to go from flying 15% of schedule in June to 70% in one month. Although, it does look like they are flying a lot more in July.
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 145
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:04 pm

tphuang wrote:
That seems unlikely viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1446987
OAG thread has their cuts for July. That does not look like a 70% pre-COVID schedule. I could see a 50% schedule though. It's also pretty hard to go from flying 15% of schedule in June to 70% in one month. Although, it does look like they are flying a lot more in July.


It looks like July has around 550 flights a day. I think they were around 750 pre covid.
 
santi319
Posts: 1021
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:49 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That seems unlikely viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1446987
OAG thread has their cuts for July. That does not look like a 70% pre-COVID schedule. I could see a 50% schedule though. It's also pretty hard to go from flying 15% of schedule in June to 70% in one month. Although, it does look like they are flying a lot more in July.


It looks like July has around 550 flights a day. I think they were around 750 pre covid.

So 73% of their schedule.

I guess LCC will be the first ones to bounce back.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5199
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:53 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That seems unlikely viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1446987
OAG thread has their cuts for July. That does not look like a 70% pre-COVID schedule. I could see a 50% schedule though. It's also pretty hard to go from flying 15% of schedule in June to 70% in one month. Although, it does look like they are flying a lot more in July.


It looks like July has around 550 flights a day. I think they were around 750 pre covid.

Interesting, that seems a little optimistic scheduling. We will see if that holds. Airlines only just finished making their June cuts this past week.
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2011
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:51 pm

Driving by Fort Worth Alliance it appears that Sprit may have flown a few of their parked jets out.
 
767driver
Posts: 65
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 3:42 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:09 pm

tphuang wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That seems unlikely viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1446987
OAG thread has their cuts for July. That does not look like a 70% pre-COVID schedule. I could see a 50% schedule though. It's also pretty hard to go from flying 15% of schedule in June to 70% in one month. Although, it does look like they are flying a lot more in July.


It looks like July has around 550 flights a day. I think they were around 750 pre covid.

Interesting, that seems a little optimistic scheduling. We will see if that holds. Airlines only just finished making their June cuts this past week.


June is more than 15%. On peak days it'll be at 291 flights/day
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 145
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: Spirit Airlines in this crisis

Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:08 pm

Here's a news story highlighting the 550 daily flights in July stat.
Good for them... Hope it works.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronaviru ... story.html

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos