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IWMBH
Posts: 626
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:01 pm

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:22 pm

Polot wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
par13del wrote:
Hopefully someone remembers that Boeing has 400+ MAX a/c sitting around and a number of them will have been cancelled, so will it really be in Boeing's best interest to take a DL order for 100 a/c to be delivered in 5 years time over a 5 year span when they can fill that complete order in 6 months?

It may be easier for Boeing to simply renegotiate the lease rates versus book an order which DL will ultimately defer, defer then cancel. In my opinion this to DL is more of a paper transaction.


I do believe that just about every one of those new MAX aircraft that are stored still have a customer on the hook. Most of the cancellations I have seen are for future to be built aircraft. A lot can change obviously with the uncertainty of the MAX certification and Covid-19 but for now the vast majority of assembled aircraft have a home.

There are now orphaned aircraft built but not delivered for the likes of Jet Airways, Air Italy, and I’m sure a few more.

That said even this comes to fruition I doubt all 100 would come from current feedstock, as things recover there will be other airlines looking to deal as well.


There are a some orphaned planes but if I look on Planespotters there are no more than 6. And, remember that there is no saying when the MAX flies again. So I don’t think DL is ordering the MAX because they can get their hands on them quickly.

I’ve no doubt that DL eventually orders the MAX. But with the current financial situation it just sounds weird to me.
 
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william
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:05 pm

AirwayBill wrote:
william wrote:

And people are stuck at home worrying about this pandemic and their livelyhoods. When things start to return the normal people will not know or care what a MAX is. People are worrying about more pressing matters now.


All true, until the media frenzy kicks in again to cover the possible MAX RTS, which won’t happen before the corona crisis is over and the general public is back to its old habits. When it happens, get the popcorn ready... :spin:

Corona pandemic isn’t the magical cure to the MAX abysmal reputation, the worst ever gained by a commercial airliner: the game has been basically put on pause, no more, no less.


Boeing is hoping the MAX is re certified this summer, just when COVID19 restrictions should be easing. Really do not think people will be glued to the news as they are now. Yeah, the media will start its frenzy, just do not think it will create the hysteria they hope for. For those afraid of flying the plane, it will be the most scrutinized aircraft ever, and if that is not enough, there are plenty of Airbus only carriers for you to fly.

The worst airplane mantra belongs to the DC10. There are enough references about the plane and the poor engineering, just Google it. Some of us Anetters are old enough to remember the last straw, AA flight 191.
 
Lootess
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:08 pm

Forbes chart gives unloading the 717 some legs. If you were the CFO in all this hot mess, you'd be asking when are big 717 leases up? Oh it's with Boeing Capital? I hear they are suffering now...

You have to remember an order for a MAX isn't something that happens tomorrow even if it were true. We could be talking about a MOU kind of deal where they pick up some later slots. Second, there is such a thing as having too few aircraft at the end of a pandemic, next thing you know your competition like AS, AA, and WN has replaced the domestic capacity you gave up. You can't just look at the picture today, but what does DL look like when we are done even if it's "smaller" it can't be drastically smaller.

Image
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:45 pm

It really sounds like doing a trade in when a new car is purchased. Delta gets out of payments now for planes that will all be parked soon, saving precious $ now. Instead of paying these lease costs, Delta gets a high value for their trade in, gets planes on order at great prices set out 5 years say. Delta is probably getting the better end of the bargain, but it is a win-win as Boeing fills in its production schedule.
 
Jetport
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:07 pm

micstatic wrote:
the less 737's of any kind the better. That's my vote


Why only less 737's? if I was King, I would ban single aisle 6 across aircraft, the worst layout currently flying for passengers, and unfortunately they are growing market share. Can you imagine being on a packed A321XLR for 9 hours, pure torture! Other than the IFE on the A321, I greatly preferred flying on Delta's MD88/90's to the new A321's which Delta bought with slightly too small overhead bins (still can't figure out how that happened, another Delta great deal?).

I really hope Delta keeps the 717's, they are far better for passengers than any single aisle 6 across aircraft.
 
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par13del
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:37 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
It really sounds like doing a trade in when a new car is purchased. Delta gets out of payments now for planes that will all be parked soon, saving precious $ now. Instead of paying these lease costs, Delta gets a high value for their trade in, gets planes on order at great prices set out 5 years say. Delta is probably getting the better end of the bargain, but it is a win-win as Boeing fills in its production schedule.

Based on the billions Boeing has already lost with the MAX and the cost is still growing, I would think Boeing needs all the money that they can get now, they may not be around in 5 years time to worry about filling production slots. So far I don't think they have accepted any federal funds, just commercial loans.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:39 pm

RalXWB wrote:
They already have a replacement for the 717....the A220. Looking Forward to Dozens of pages of speculations.


Post Co-VID I would expect Delta to hang on to low lease cost 717s.

I doubt they’ll leave the fleet for many a year.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:51 pm

Southwest leased 88 B717 to DL: 78 that were leased via Boeing Capital were subleased, and 10 that were owned were leased direct.

Per WN's 2019 10K filing:
- three leases expired in 2018, and eight more in 2019.
- DL outright purchased the 10 B717 that had were owned by WN.
- as of 12-31-19, 67 leases were still active, with maturities ranging from one month to five years.
- DL is paying WN $78M in 2020, $41M in 2021, $17M in 2022, $7M in 2023 and $1M in 2024.

Per DL's 2019 10K filing, the aircraft that came off lease from WN and were subsequently re-leased directly through Boeing Capital are classified as finance leases.

Thus, it doesn't look like DL executed a new leasing agreement for the B717, but rather is signing a new (finance) leasing agreement with Boeing as the WN leases mature. So, it would make sense that should DL wish to dispose of these aircraft, that they'd have to negotiate a MAX order. I believe there's credence to this rumor -- DL's looking to dump the 717 now in exchange for agreeing to buy the MAX later -- but the phase out would likely take a few years.

JayinKitsap wrote:
It really sounds like doing a trade in when a new car is purchased. Delta gets out of payments now for planes that will all be parked soon, saving precious $ now. Instead of paying these lease costs, Delta gets a high value for their trade in, gets planes on order at great prices set out 5 years say. Delta is probably getting the better end of the bargain, but it is a win-win as Boeing fills in its production schedule.


You receive credit for a trade-in only when you have equity in an asset. It's extremely rare to potentially have equity with an operating lease. Generally, if you trade-in an asset that's leased, you're stuck paying the remaining payments (typically in a lump sum). DL would merely be able to receive some relief in exchange for a MAX order.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:42 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
UWPAviation wrote:
If Delta does order the MAX, which I think we all believe is inevitable, the US flyer who is petrified of this plane wont have much choices. DL, AA, UA, WN, AS all flying this plane.


Really, you want to go there?

People got back on DC-10s after AA's maintenance failures killed 273 people on AA 191 in 1979.

People got back on MD-8Xs after Alaska's maintenance failures killed 88 people on AS 261 in 2000.

People got back on Bombardier Q400s after repeated landing gear collapses.

People got back on A330s after AF 447 killed 228 passengers and crew.

People got back on DC-10s operated by U.S. carriers for more than a decade after UA 232 in Sioux City.

The guys who argue that MAX crashes will make material numbers of passengers avoid the type are ignorant of flight incident histories or willfully misrepresent them.


The MAX has dropped out of the news, most topics that drop out for an extended time tend to stay dropped or are seen as old news with a lot less interest. Thanks to all the news since DM walked the plank I would guess it is a non-event to most of the public now. Like your items above the 787 battery and other issues vanished as the plane got out there in quantity.
 
randomdude83
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:42 am

I feel like we're twisting how this deal will actually work without facts. Delta may not even need to put a single dime in it from any GOV money in the end.

I think its unfair to think Delta will use the GOV money to make this deal and not pay their employee.

That is probably FAR from the truth and the fact that they're trying to trade and seal a deal that will probably result in the max's not getting delivered for another 4 years...is a GREAT move and gets you out of a bad lease NOW. and plus, you all do it with your own cars...why not let delta do it with 100 717s...and good credit while they have it lol
 
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NWAROOSTER
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:13 am

Boeing may have already built their last 737 MAX. Boeing may find that too many of the undelivered 737 MAXs will not be going to the original purchaser and my need to sell them at fire sale prices while developing the new narrow body aircraft they should have if they do not find themselves in insolvency. :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
n7371f
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:05 am

Delta is essentially asking Boeing to forgo cash flow when it needs it the most - for an order down the road. And ask yourself, who in the world right now would take the 717's? Not sure Boeing is in a position to bend over for Delta.

For Delta's perspective, as usual, it only helps them. They find a way to drop 91 aircraft from a bloated fleet, erasing a standalone aircraft-type. Then, a handful of years down the road when the business should have rebounded, Delta starts receiving the 7M8 as a 1-for-1 replacement of the 738 and/or 320 fleet.

On the other hand...right now Delta's up gauge of aircraft size domestically the past half-decade it a real pain in the a**. There's a reason the entire CS1 fleet is still flying. It matches the market place right now. The 717 does as well. Having a current fleet of 100+ 321's with another 130 coming creates numerous challenges in the immediate years given the expected soft travel market.
 
Lootess
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:08 am

n7371f wrote:
Delta is essentially asking Boeing to forgo cash flow when it needs it the most - for an order down the road. And ask yourself, who in the world right now would take the 717's? Not sure Boeing is in a position to bend over for Delta.

For Delta's perspective, as usual, it only helps them. They find a way to drop 91 aircraft from a bloated fleet, erasing a standalone aircraft-type. Then, a handful of years down the road when the business should have rebounded, Delta starts receiving the 7M8 as a 1-for-1 replacement of the 738 and/or 320 fleet.

On the other hand...right now Delta's up gauge of aircraft size domestically the past half-decade it a real pain in the a**. There's a reason the entire CS1 fleet is still flying. It matches the market place right now. The 717 does as well. Having a current fleet of 100+ 321's with another 130 coming creates numerous challenges in the immediate years given the expected soft travel market.


Well over half the 717s are currently parked, they don't work for every mission. So it's not like they are a saving grace. The A321s work just fine and continue to do so when things rebound for those high density routes like ATL-Florida since they had no problems filling wide bodies on the routes.

Boeing is suing for cancelled MAX payments right now, so it's obvious they would like anything to guarantee sales in the pipeline. If anything a deal could reduce or break some 717 leases in the short term for DL cost in-return for a MOU.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:23 am

I really don't see why DL has anything larger than a 738 flying at this time. But even the capacity of the 738 isn't needed but it can reach anywhere in the 48 states and Alaska. The 717 and A220 could cover the majority of routes though.
 
Lootess
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:32 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
I really don't see why DL has anything larger than a 738 flying at this time. But even the capacity of the 738 isn't needed but it can reach anywhere in the 48 states and Alaska. The 717 and A220 could cover the majority of routes though.


It's a complicated matter. Pilot groups, like MDs don't fly 717s. Upcoming maintenance cycles means a plane is getting parked, parts are not to be outsourced. Then there is cycles. Like you really can't go 6 months running one type and when things go back to normal you rapidly depreciated an aircraft type, that may explain why the entire A320 fleet was parked.

But with 250 more planes gong to be parked in the coming months, the airline may look closer to what you mention. Probably expect most of the 321s/739s/757s to be parked next.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:41 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
and that rather than parking the 777, it could sell the 77L to a freight company

What would a freight company want with a 77L?


UWPAviation wrote:
If Delta does order the MAX, which I think we all believe is inevitable, the US flyer who is petrified of this plane wont have much choices. DL, AA, UA, WN, AS all flying this plane.

Much as I hate the thought of that, you are correct. :cry:


1337Delta764 wrote:
IMO the feds need to put a No-Airbus clause in their bailout rules. That will help the U.S. economy better.

Which is of course, a patently ridiculous statement; seeing as many Airbuses are now made here in the US, employing US workers, constructed with US metal, featuring US-made parts and common components by US manufacturers... all of which sustain US jobs and generate tax revenue to the USA government.


N776AU wrote:
I was really hoping flying Delta would become much easier since I soon wouldn’t have to avoid the MD-88. Don’t tell me I will have another aircraft to stay away from. I’ve always been very passionate about being alive.

I'm about as anti-737MAX as one can get, but what is your quarrel with MD88s?


Jetport wrote:
Can you imagine being on a packed A321XLR for 9 hours, pure torture!

Which is all that it is: your imagination.

Those of us who've actually DONE longhauls in narrowbodies with any frequency, realize that the difference is just in your head; especially in coach.

  • You still have a maximum of two seats between you and an aisle at all times, whether you're in a narrowbody or widebody.
  • How is a single aisle blocked by a beverage cart, different from a twin aisle blocked by two carts?
  • And you'll have more shoulder and headroom in a 737/A321 than you would in the upper decks of 747/A380s that people here get so giddy about.

Thus really not sure what you're pretending to be so outraged over.
Heck, if you're that poor sucker stuck in the last row of an arriving A321XLR, at least you won't be 400th in line at the customs queue.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:48 am

n7371f wrote:
Delta is essentially asking Boeing to forgo cash flow when it needs it the most - for an order down the road. And ask yourself, who in the world right now would take the 717's? Not sure Boeing is in a position to bend over for Delta.

For Delta's perspective, as usual, it only helps them. They find a way to drop 91 aircraft from a bloated fleet, erasing a standalone aircraft-type. Then, a handful of years down the road when the business should have rebounded, Delta starts receiving the 7M8 as a 1-for-1 replacement of the 738 and/or 320 fleet.

On the other hand...right now Delta's up gauge of aircraft size domestically the past half-decade it a real pain in the a**. There's a reason the entire CS1 fleet is still flying. It matches the market place right now. The 717 does as well. Having a current fleet of 100+ 321's with another 130 coming creates numerous challenges in the immediate years given the expected soft travel market.


We are not talking about a significant amount of money here. Nearly two-thirds of the 717 leases mature in the next 4 years. After this year, the total of those lease payments is less than what DL would pay for a single MAX8 frame. Then there’s about a dozen aircraft DL recently signed new lease agreements for — these aircraft were basically worth scrap.

It’s be a smart move for Boeing, given the profit potential of such order, not to mention the boost for the program.
 
Lootess
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:07 am

LAX772LR wrote:
UWPAviation wrote:
If Delta does order the MAX, which I think we all believe is inevitable, the US flyer who is petrified of this plane wont have much choices. DL, AA, UA, WN, AS all flying this plane.

Much as I hate the thought of that, you are correct. :cry:


Not sure why all these weird feelings considering how deep Delta is in with Airbus already, after A220 and A321s ended up on property I figure we were due for a Boeing order at some point once 739s ended, it just never crossed my mind the 717 could be a target for removal but in this environment it is plausible considering they don't own a considerable amount of them.

You know Boeing would listen to Delta about those 717s if it means they can MAX out the domestic skies. It's all about the end-game. Besides people will have moved on, plane will likely be airworthy by the time the pandemic clears.
 
gloom
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:15 am

I think someone stated above what it could possibly be.

You trade in lease for 717, get MoU on 737 as "part of replacement". Everyone seem to be happy.

DL: gets rid of 717 which are not much needed now (during corona virus), and they gain a couple of years to see how the market will shape afterwards. When they see, they will be able to evaluate and secure planes if necessary.
Boeing: secures a deal on camp where they lost every campaign during past few years. Gains traction on market (much like with that 200 MAX MoU with IAG).

I think DL is an obvious winner there. They get rid of planes they don't need at moment, giving themselves some space to reavulate and guarantee a good pricing. Whether they will buy MAXes, that's a different story. I wouldn't put a $ on that, but an option certainly.

Cheers,
Adam
 
Oliver2020
Posts: 192
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:22 am

I ran all the N numbers through the FAA website, and double checked manufacturing dates with planespotters. The following is listed by manufacturing date per the website, I'm going list the entire fleet by age notice none were manufactured in 2003.
717 fleet
1999-10
2000-24
2001-29
2002-16
2004-5
2005-5
2006-2

Delta 13ac = 1999-9, 2000-2, 2001-2
Boeing capital 12ac = 2000-5, 2001-7
Wells Fargo lease 65 AC = 1999-1, 2000-16, 2001-20, 2002-16, 2004-5, 2005-5, 2006-2
Hawker lease company 1 AC = 2000-1

Please excuse the grammar as it is 2:30am in Los Angeles.
Oliver
Last edited by Oliver2020 on Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Jomar777
Posts: 555
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:25 am

RalXWB wrote:
They already have a replacement for the 717....the A220. Looking Forward to Dozens of pages of speculations.


Fair point... I was wondering that... Despite the backlog that Airbus has (and they are not increasing production...), with COVID, you could actually order those and get them later with no disruption since you could still park your B717s now.

The lease thing I get and it might be quite simple - you go to your lessor and close the old lease in exchange for a spanking new one - no brainier. But it baffles me that DL would speak to Boeing about the MAX now with the "so called" A220 success hppening. Maybe they cannot afford to shut the lease and pay early termination costs...

Frankly, I believe that this would be (if true...) a good move for DL since, when is back in the air again, the B737 will still be a great option. Just wonder what Boeing will do...
 
brindabella
Posts: 620
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:21 pm

n7371f wrote:
Delta is essentially asking Boeing to forgo cash flow when it needs it the most - for an order down the road. And ask yourself, who in the world right now would take the 717's? Not sure Boeing is in a position to bend over for Delta.

For Delta's perspective, as usual, it only helps them. They find a way to drop 91 aircraft from a bloated fleet, erasing a standalone aircraft-type. Then, a handful of years down the road when the business should have rebounded, Delta starts receiving the 7M8 as a 1-for-1 replacement of the 738 and/or 320 fleet.

On the other hand...right now Delta's up gauge of aircraft size domestically the past half-decade it a real pain in the a**. There's a reason the entire CS1 fleet is still flying. It matches the market place right now. The 717 does as well. Having a current fleet of 100+ 321's with another 130 coming creates numerous challenges in the immediate years given the expected soft travel market.


How fast it all has changed - 5 minutes ago the biggest model in a type was all the rage:

A321neo: :checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

737-10: would have been really popular also if they could have got it into the market promptly!

B787-10: :checkmark: :checkmark: (this baby costs heaps, remember!)

Thought from left field: will UA DL and WN buying up mega numbers of 737-700 & A319 suddenly look like the deals of the century?

:eek:


cheers
Billy
 
brindabella
Posts: 620
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:36 pm

gloom wrote:
I think someone stated above what it could possibly be.

You trade in lease for 717, get MoU on 737 as "part of replacement". Everyone seem to be happy.

DL: gets rid of 717 which are not much needed now (during corona virus), and they gain a couple of years to see how the market will shape afterwards. When they see, they will be able to evaluate and secure planes if necessary.
Boeing: secures a deal on camp where they lost every campaign during past few years. Gains traction on market (much like with that 200 MAX MoU with IAG).

I think DL is an obvious winner there. They get rid of planes they don't need at moment, giving themselves some space to reavulate and guarantee a good pricing. Whether they will buy MAXes, that's a different story. I wouldn't put a $ on that, but an option certainly.

Cheers,
Adam


Hmmm.

So what exactly would be the incentive for Boeing to carve-away at their precious cash-flow, take back 717s which may/may not ever fly again, then not finally sell any MAX anyway?

Phew!

I guess that I have missed your point?

cheers
Billy
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8049
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:44 pm

geg2rap wrote:
Delta-We are so broke we need the government to pay our employees.
Also Delta- 100 new 737 Max’s please


That's an industry-wide bailout, not specific to Delta. Monies were a nice, dispassionate function of historical payroll expenses - no funny games, no favorites. If you wanted no bailout and things to proceed through Chapter 11/Chapter 7 liquidations for the ten DOT-reporting marketing carriers (Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Frontier, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit, United), be confident that DL would be one of those left standing.

I'll be a little surprised if DL starts writing big checks for new Boeing deliveries while it still has a Payroll Support Program loan outstanding - but I don't think the law prohibits it.

In the 10-Q filing and on the earnings call yesterday DL acknowledged it has $10 Billion in new aircraft purchase commitments between 1 April 20 and the end of 2022 -- and does not yet have firm agreement with Airbus for deferrals. Think of how execs choose their words very carefully. From the 10-Q 4/22/20:

We have committed to the future aircraft purchases reflected below. However, we are working with the OEMs to optimize the timing of our future aircraft
deliveries.
 
WayexTDI
Posts: 1752
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:38 pm

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:02 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
william wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Really, you want to go there?

People got back on DC-10s after AA's maintenance failures killed 273 people on AA 191 in 1979.

People got back on MD-8Xs after Alaska's maintenance failures killed 88 people on AS 261 in 2000.

People got back on Bombardier Q400s after repeated landing gear collapses.

People got back on A330s after AF 447 killed 228 passengers and crew.

People got back on DC-10s operated by U.S. carriers for more than a decade after UA 232 in Sioux City.

The guys who argue that MAX crashes will make material numbers of passengers avoid the type are ignorant of flight incident histories or willfully misrepresent them.


And people are stuck at home worrying about this pandemic and their livelyhoods. When things start to return the normal people will not know or care what a MAX is. People are worrying about more pressing matters now.

And to add with that? nO 737 max airplanes in the USA or in Europe had a problem. 2 African carriers had the crashes. And neither one had an Angle of attack indication, They couldn't ever have seen the AOA was even broken. Most of the other Max operators? Already flew the 737 which already had the AOA indication so they knew what they were looking at if the Capt's side indication went "sideways" and they got Pitch faults, They could just bypass the MCAS by disabling auto stab trim and doing it manually. BUT? You gotta know what you're looking at first and they didn't know. Boeing should never Sell another airplane without the AOA as a primary indication.

I know COVID-19 has shaken the world badly; but was it that bad that it move Indonesia to Africa???

First 737MAX crash was Lion Air Flight 610; Lion Air is an Indonesian airline, Indonesia is a country made of thousands of islands between Malaysia/the Philippines and Australia/New Zealand. That's quite a long swim before you hit Africa...
 
Elementalism
Posts: 602
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:03 am

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:04 pm

jrkmsp wrote:
This makes perfect sense to me.

Delta returns the 717s to Boeing now, with no more lease payments due, immediately shrinking its fleet by 91 frames. In exchange, it signs a purchase agreement for 100 737MAX at favorable terms that start coming on property in 2022 or later, when the grounding is just a vague memory for most consumers. Now Delta has frames it can use to replace old A320s or B738s or, perhaps, even to grow off the new baseline. And Boeing gets a marquee carrier into its order book for the MAX and resumes a relationship with the one member of the US3 who currently has no orders in Boeing’s book.

This is actually an entirely logical move, once you see the rough contours.


This makes sense. I could even see them push the delivery out further to 2024-25 as air travel finally recovers.
 
Elementalism
Posts: 602
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:03 am

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:12 pm

marcogr12 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

Participants within this thread are interpreting this rumor as DL trading the 717 one-for-one for MAX in the near future, when in practicality DL would likely be proposing turning the 717 in during the near term, and taking delivery of the MAX several years from now. DL indicated last fall that it had agreed to extend the 717 leases for another ~10 years, and they would begin cabin/cockpit upgrades shortly. They also indicated that in later years, the 717 would offer "flex" capacity (being utilized mostly during busier travel periods). Even before the pandemic, there were reports that DL was having cold feet about making that type of investment in the 717, and keeping the aircraft around that long, particularly as labor costs swelled.

During the mid-2000s to mid-2010s, DL and NW combined took delivery of roughly 50 new aircraft -- which is 2/3 of the number DL took last year alone. That, combined with the additions of late model aircraft, means that the crux of the 319, 320, 738 and 757 will be aging out by the end of the decade. The 321 CEO/NEO on order were suppose to be delivered by mid-decade; the reality is that another large (~100 frames) order for either the NEO/MAX for delivery the second half of the decade was always likely, anyway. That order was likely always Boeing's to lose, anyway, since it's probable DL would've desired to maintain strong relations with both manufacturers, and the MAX8 is a stronger option than the 320NEO.

I'm uncertain how much effort the ALPA would put into fighting DL, given that arbitrators would likely infer that the 220 meets the definition of a small narrowbody per scope (for those of us with fancy educations and real world experience; I realize some disagree, but that's why they're Starbucks baristas). It's not like the ALPA has much leverage, with DL on the brink of financial collapse and fighting for survival -- they have much more to lose should DL be forced into bankruptcy organization.

Alas, if the rumor were true, it's DL taking advantage of an opportunity to get rid of a fleet type it probably didn't want anyway and placing an order that would've been necessary, anyway. Boeing at the very least gets a much needed boost for its MAX program, even if it loses 10 years of lease payments on the 717 (it's unlikely many will be rehomed). DL owns 13 717 (it outright purchased the 10 aircraft it had been leasing directly from Southwest) and there's speculation it never signed lease renewals on the entire 717 fleet, so it's also possible that only a portion of the fleet will be removed (e.g. half, etc.) Credible pilot sources are indicating that they've been told that select 717 would be permanently withdrawn, so that would make a lot of sense.

Busyboy2 wrote:

you sure about that?


Per its latest annual filing, DL owns 13 717. The other 73 are leased through Boeing Capital, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Boeing.

DL777200LR wrote:
The 77L is going nowhere anytime soon. I don't get why there are always constant posts saying that DL is going to retire 777 fleet soon.


Because sources that have been reliable in the past are indicating that DL's considering retiring some of the 777 fleet. Given your username, it's clear your opinion is bias. It's entirely possible that DL feels that it has surplus capacity in the ~300 passenger segment, and that rather than parking the 777, it could sell the 77L to a freight company, and when the time comes, take delivery of a 330 or 350 that is more efficient for its needs. There's been reports for quite awhile that DL had looked into selling its 77L, but there was no interest in the type, particularly as freight companies were parking aircraft. With long-haul passenger flights likely to be in heavy decline over the next several years, this may be the only opportunity DL has to dispose of the type if it really doesn't want them. I don't know either way -- I'm just illustrating why they would sell the type.


I am confused..If DL never really wanted the 717s why didnt they opt for another narrowbody like the E190/195? And if this deal does go thru now, and they offload all 717s, the seat gap is big between the 717s and 737-8MAX, how will they replace it? They dont have enough A221s.. I suppose HA and QF are the only candidates that could pick some, since Volotea is looking to replace its own with A319..Could the 717s find home in Africa or S.America as cheap second-hand small/regional jets for thin/thinner routes? Asia has the similar ARJ-21 in case they are interested in sth. like that, although i have no idea if its economics are superior to the older 717


I suspect DL was fine with the 717 for another decade. Why they signed the new lease. But this pandemic has changed their view drastically. They have an opportunity to shed 91 frames with the lease payments immediately. And take delivery of the MAX years down the road when they have the demand that requires it.
 
Elementalism
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:23 pm

I dont expect the media to focus on the MAX much even as this pandemic passes. The economic mess left in the wake of this pandemic will last years.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:32 pm

geg2rap wrote:
Delta-We are so broke we need the government to pay our employees.
Also Delta- 100 new 737 Max’s please

That's not at all what is going on.

Delta to Boeing: Please let us stop paying lease payments on planes we aren't flying and take them off our hands so we can sign up to buy MAXes X years from now.

gloom wrote:
I think someone stated above what it could possibly be.

You trade in lease for 717, get MoU on 737 as "part of replacement". Everyone seem to be happy.

It will need to be an order not a MoU, IMO. Boeing is giving up valuable lease payments at a time it can use every dollar it can find. They will want something firm in exchange, IMO.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Lootess
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:17 pm

Revelation wrote:
geg2rap wrote:
Delta-We are so broke we need the government to pay our employees.
Also Delta- 100 new 737 Max’s please

That's not at all what is going on.

Delta to Boeing: Please let us stop paying lease payments on planes we aren't flying and take them off our hands so we can sign up to buy MAXes X years from now.

gloom wrote:
I think someone stated above what it could possibly be.

You trade in lease for 717, get MoU on 737 as "part of replacement". Everyone seem to be happy.

It will need to be an order not a MoU, IMO. Boeing is giving up valuable lease payments at a time it can use every dollar it can find. They will want something firm in exchange, IMO.


Large orders tend to start with a MOU. Allows both sides to get their legal ducks in a row, figure out their plane slotting, and come up with payment schedules that work to their mutual benefit, etc. A lease-trade in this manner isn't something that the lawyers are going to want to draw up right away. That doesn't mean the MOU can't come with collateral and guarantees.
 
wv399
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:50 pm

Revelation wrote:
geg2rap wrote:
Delta-We are so broke we need the government to pay our employees.
Also Delta- 100 new 737 Max’s please

That's not at all what is going on.

Delta to Boeing: Please let us stop paying lease payments on planes we aren't flying and take them off our hands so we can sign up to buy MAXes X years from now.

gloom wrote:
I think someone stated above what it could possibly be.

You trade in lease for 717, get MoU on 737 as "part of replacement". Everyone seem to be happy.

It will need to be an order not a MoU, IMO. Boeing is giving up valuable lease payments at a time it can use every dollar it can find. They will want something firm in exchange, IMO.


Exactly. Please let us stop paying for leases and storage fees on planes we don’t want, and sell us new ones down the line at an excellent price.
 
Dalmd88
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:39 pm

I've been saying all along. As soon as the MD88/90 exit the 717 is going very shortly. This is all about shedding airplanes you don't need right now that are costing you money to park.
 
marcogr12
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:51 pm

Dalmd88 wrote:
I've been saying all along. As soon as the MD88/90 exit the 717 is going very shortly. This is all about shedding airplanes you don't need right now that are costing you money to park.


Lets hope not too soon..Besides even if they do trade them for a 100 MAXs, when will these start flying? It's still a mystery for all airlines even for Boeing when it will be up in the air again safely..
Flying is breathing..no planes no life..
 
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par13del
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:10 pm

Lootess wrote:
Large orders tend to start with a MOU. Allows both sides to get their legal ducks in a row, figure out their plane slotting, and come up with payment schedules that work to their mutual benefit, etc. A lease-trade in this manner isn't something that the lawyers are going to want to draw up right away. That doesn't mean the MOU can't come with collateral and guarantees.

DL may have inherited the 787 order from NW but that was a large order too and we know where that ended up, Boeing also had to exercise its option to get DL to take the 737-9, so I think the ducks will have to be lined up first before a deal is made, Boeing is in just as much need of cash as DL.
 
Sparker
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:40 pm

Anyone reckon that QF or HA will pick up some of these 717s, as a low-capital way to:
- increase the size of, or extend the life of their existing 717 fleets, or
- push back the timeline for them needing to commit capital to an A220/E195-2/Spacejet replacement fleet in the next few years?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:55 pm

par13del wrote:
Boeing also had to exercise its option to get DL to take the 737-9, so I think the ducks will have to be lined up first before a deal is made, Boeing is in just as much need of cash as DL.

In this situation Boeing is getting cash from DL for the lease payments and it is DL that is looking to trade 717s for MAXes...

Also, DL signed the contract that gave Boeing the option to require DL to buy more 737-900s. They did it because they knew they were getting a good deal even if Boeing required them to buy more. I don't know why anyone makes a big deal out of it. If it was a bad deal, DL wouldn't have signed it. Same as for whatever MAX deal they end up making.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
strfyr51
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Re: DL looking to trade 717s for 100 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:01 am

Web500sjc wrote:
KFTG wrote:
So they want to trade 91 10-20 year-old aircraft for 100 brand new ones?
If true, another example of Delta's arrogance.


First off, I highly doubt DL is trying to make that exact trade, I think they are just trying to use the 717s they have as equity in a potential purchase. Now that we’re past that...

The bigger news is that A) DL is looking to place new aircraft orders, and B) Boeing might be able to sell 737Max to a large blue chip A320NEO customer. Boeing has had a rash of cancelations, and the 737M needs new sales and a new customer in order to reinvigorate the industrial confidence in that frame.
give them
DL on the other hand has been talking about downsizing and manically cutting costs. Placing a new order for aircraft means the C suite is confident in revenue returning and a turnaround coming.

If they are exploring this, it is good news for DL and Boeing .

Well? Delta is ALWAYS looking for a "DEAL", And? If they can get Brand new 737's at a fire sale Price? Would it NOT be a good move? What kind
of price is Airbus going to give them to NOT buy Boeing?
 
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Polot
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:09 am

par13del wrote:
Lootess wrote:
Large orders tend to start with a MOU. Allows both sides to get their legal ducks in a row, figure out their plane slotting, and come up with payment schedules that work to their mutual benefit, etc. A lease-trade in this manner isn't something that the lawyers are going to want to draw up right away. That doesn't mean the MOU can't come with collateral and guarantees.

DL may have inherited the 787 order from NW but that was a large order too and we know where that ended up

That is not really comparable. In that situation due to 787 delays Boeing was in breach of contract with NW/DL, giving the airline leverage in negotiations. In this scenario DL wanting to break 717 leases or defaulting on payments is Delta breaching their contract with Boeing. Boeing has held up their end of the contract (supplying the 717s to DL) so they would have leverage in negotiations. Which means DL’s options for an easy out in a MAX contract will be curtailed.
Last edited by Polot on Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
seanpmassey
Posts: 94
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:15 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
geg2rap wrote:
Delta-We are so broke we need the government to pay our employees.
Also Delta- 100 new 737 Max’s please


That's an industry-wide bailout, not specific to Delta. Monies were a nice, dispassionate function of historical payroll expenses - no funny games, no favorites. If you wanted no bailout and things to proceed through Chapter 11/Chapter 7 liquidations for the ten DOT-reporting marketing carriers (Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Frontier, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit, United), be confident that DL would be one of those left standing.

I'll be a little surprised if DL starts writing big checks for new Boeing deliveries while it still has a Payroll Support Program loan outstanding - but I don't think the law prohibits it.

In the 10-Q filing and on the earnings call yesterday DL acknowledged it has $10 Billion in new aircraft purchase commitments between 1 April 20 and the end of 2022 -- and does not yet have firm agreement with Airbus for deferrals. Think of how execs choose their words very carefully. From the 10-Q 4/22/20:

We have committed to the future aircraft purchases reflected below. However, we are working with the OEMs to optimize the timing of our future aircraft
deliveries.


I wonder if the 717-for-MAX trade news is being used as leverage against Airbus to renegotiate orders and deliveries. Would it be possible to renegotiate some of the existing Airbus orders to substitute larger frames for 221s and 223s?
 
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Polot
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:19 am

seanpmassey wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
geg2rap wrote:
Delta-We are so broke we need the government to pay our employees.
Also Delta- 100 new 737 Max’s please


That's an industry-wide bailout, not specific to Delta. Monies were a nice, dispassionate function of historical payroll expenses - no funny games, no favorites. If you wanted no bailout and things to proceed through Chapter 11/Chapter 7 liquidations for the ten DOT-reporting marketing carriers (Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Frontier, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit, United), be confident that DL would be one of those left standing.

I'll be a little surprised if DL starts writing big checks for new Boeing deliveries while it still has a Payroll Support Program loan outstanding - but I don't think the law prohibits it.

In the 10-Q filing and on the earnings call yesterday DL acknowledged it has $10 Billion in new aircraft purchase commitments between 1 April 20 and the end of 2022 -- and does not yet have firm agreement with Airbus for deferrals. Think of how execs choose their words very carefully. From the 10-Q 4/22/20:

We have committed to the future aircraft purchases reflected below. However, we are working with the OEMs to optimize the timing of our future aircraft
deliveries.


I wonder if the 717-for-MAX trade news is being used as leverage against Airbus to renegotiate orders and deliveries. Would it be possible to renegotiate some of the existing Airbus orders to substitute larger frames for 221s and 223s?


It’s not particularly great leverage, because either way DL still owes Boeing money as per their contract, and either way DL is going to struggle to pay for new Airbuses at the moment (I’m sure there are a lot of people at DL regretting their commitment to LATAM’s A350s right now). Delta’s size and financial situation alone is enough to kick start negotiations with Airbus- Airbus is not going to want to piss off one of their largest customers.
 
kevin5345179
Posts: 111
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:38 am

he just updated it on twitter:

I approached Delta on Apr. 14 to seek comment (citing multiple sources) on its proposed transaction involving 717s & 737 Max. They declined comment.

Article ran Apr. 21.

Apr. 23: Delta says, “we’re not currently in any such negotiations.”

We stand by every word in this report.
 
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par13del
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:48 am

Revelation wrote:
par13del wrote:
Boeing also had to exercise its option to get DL to take the 737-9, so I think the ducks will have to be lined up first before a deal is made, Boeing is in just as much need of cash as DL.

In this situation Boeing is getting cash from DL for the lease payments and it is DL that is looking to trade 717s for MAXes...

We get it, DL is looking to stop paying cash to Boeing now for a deal to pay more later.
We are only discussing whether that is in the best interest of Boeing, the Boeing of today with billions already lost on MAX, more to go and other billions tied up in MAX inventory that is grounded with still more to be spent to get RTS, and now suffering like the rest of the world with COVID is a much weaker company.
I do not see why it is wrong to speculate that Boeing may mot be willing to take the short term pain for long term gain.
 
xdlx
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Re: DL looking to trade 717s for 100 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:59 am

lightsaber wrote:
Unlikely rumor. Delta is not taking on debt now. Delta has mid-term contracts on the 717 for parts.

I do expect DL to order the MAX, but later and after brutal negotiations.

Lightsaber


Actually, after the last podcast. They want to move the leases of those 717 of the books! You d think they buy more A220 but whatever!
 
NLINK
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:03 am

I think if this is true that Delta is trying to eliminate the 717 because financial reasons, this does make since short term. I'm not 100% this is true myself. What I do think if it is true these 737-Max are just placeholders for the aircraft they really want, the MOM. With everything going on at Boeing and with COVID-19 it can't be launched yet but it rumored to be coming with CFM engines.
 
ACA772LR
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:11 am

kevin5345179 wrote:
he just updated it on twitter:

I approached Delta on Apr. 14 to seek comment (citing multiple sources) on its proposed transaction involving 717s & 737 Max. They declined comment.

Article ran Apr. 21.

Apr. 23: Delta says, “we’re not currently in any such negotiations.”

We stand by every word in this report.


Right from the horses mouth DL themselves
 
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par13del
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:12 am

NLINK wrote:
What I do think if it is true these 737-Max are just placeholders for the aircraft they really want, the MOM. With everything going on at Boeing and with COVID-19 it can't be launched yet but it rumored to be coming with CFM engines.

The current head of Boeing said they were going back to the drawing board on MOM / NMA, what we also know is that DL was one of the carriers who expressed interest in the last design, not a good start for a placeholder option for something starting from scratch.
However, anything is possible.
 
kevin5345179
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:44 am

NLINK wrote:
I think if this is true that Delta is trying to eliminate the 717 because financial reasons, this does make since short term. I'm not 100% this is true myself. What I do think if it is true these 737-Max are just placeholders for the aircraft they really want, the MOM. With everything going on at Boeing and with COVID-19 it can't be launched yet but it rumored to be coming with CFM engines.


NMA from Boeing is effectively dead .....
 
kevin5345179
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:50 am

ACA772LR wrote:
kevin5345179 wrote:
he just updated it on twitter:

I approached Delta on Apr. 14 to seek comment (citing multiple sources) on its proposed transaction involving 717s & 737 Max. They declined comment.

Article ran Apr. 21.

Apr. 23: Delta says, “we’re not currently in any such negotiations.”

We stand by every word in this report.


Right from the horses mouth DL themselves


Ed denied the A321neo until the last moment. No clue what DL is really thinking at this point ....
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:51 am

zkojq wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Really, you want to go there?

People got back on DC-10s after AA's maintenance failures killed 273 people on AA 191 in 1979.

People got back on MD-8Xs after Alaska's maintenance failures killed 88 people on AS 261 in 2000.

People got back on Bombardier Q400s after repeated landing gear collapses.

People got back on A330s after AF 447 killed 228 passengers and crew.

People got back on DC-10s operated by U.S. carriers for more than a decade after UA 232 in Sioux City.

The guys who argue that MAX crashes will make material numbers of passengers avoid the type are ignorant of flight incident histories or willfully misrepresent them.


None of those were caused by reckless negligence on the part of the OEM. None of those involved company emails being released admitting that OEM employees wouldn't let their families fly on one and that OEM employees thought that the plane was designed by morons overseen my monkeys or whatever the exact phrase was. None of those crashes happened in the social media age. None of those involved a 1.5 year grounding.

kimimm19 wrote:
micstatic wrote:
the less 737's of any kind the better. That's my vote


seconded.


Disagree. The NG is one of the greatest airplanes ever to fly. Shane that the shitty MAX had tarnished the 737's reputation.

AirwayBill wrote:
Corona pandemic isn’t the magical cure to the MAX abysmal reputation, the worst ever gained by a commercial airliner: the game has been basically put on pause, no more, no less.

:checkmark:

JoseSalazar wrote:
Cant tell if this is a serious post or a joke. But I think the tariffs already take care of that. And what about mobile produced airbuses?


Tariffs don't affect Mobile built A321s (nor CSeries). The person you're replying to is the one who wrote to their congressperson to try and stop Delta buying A330neos and A350s. :lol:

N776AU wrote:
I’ve always been very passionate about being alive.


Me too actually.

n7371f wrote:
Delta is essentially asking Boeing to forgo cash flow when it needs it the most - for an order down the road. And ask yourself, who in the world right now would take the 717's? Not sure Boeing is in a position to bend over for Delta.


Very good point. If the leases are as expensive as people seem to suggest they are then that's a great profit centre for Boeing Capital. In a time when they're nodoubt suffering from plenty of leases being in arrears, ending the 717s would not be good for the bottom line.

Of course the whole point of Boeing Capital leasing out older frames is to be able to do exactly the type of deal as suggested here.


Uh no, the DC-10 had multiple flaws and had more accidents than the 73M. And email wasn't around during the DC-10 development. You have no idea what went on.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8050
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:16 am

kevin5345179 wrote:
he just updated it on twitter:

I approached Delta on Apr. 14 to seek comment (citing multiple sources) on its proposed transaction involving 717s & 737 Max. They declined comment.

Article ran Apr. 21.

Apr. 23: Delta says, “we’re not currently in any such negotiations.”

We stand by every word in this report.

Would you really expect DL to respond either way with anything different?
Of course they are not going to respond either way to alledged rumors of potential deals.
They cannot legally respond in way that gives any sort of indication of something that is of material impact.

Don't read much into this either way. People in a position of authority aren't going to go on the record to acknowledge such confidential matters.

Its plausible conversations were had, but this thing could go any various direction from nothing every happening or to some deal that is very different than as proposed.
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