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MIflyer12
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:16 pm

william wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
One thing that I'm not sure about. Delta just struck a deal with Airbus, deferring a lot of planes towards later delivery dates. Because of adversity, facing Delta.
Now, folks here talk about Delta taking a bunch of MAX'es, if the deal is right.
Are we to think that Airbus sales and legal teams are blind and silly, and would not formulate the deferral terms in a way, that once adversity is dissipating sufficiently (and placing new orders elsewhere could be construed as a signal adversity is no longer there), deferrals also dissipate, and Delta should start taking delivery of already ordered Airbuses?


Stop making sense and adding common sense to this discussion.


Exclusivity clauses can be problematic under U.S. law. 'And you can't buy new aircraft from anybody but us,' could be tested. Ask Intel, or Microsoft. Or Qualcomm.
 
LAOCA
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:25 pm

Timing aside for a moment, Delta recently retired close to 200 MD 88/90s. There's close to that amount of older A320/319s and 737-800s on property that are costlier to operate by today's standards. The 717s are largely irrelevant as they have been and are being replaced by A220s.

In the long run about 100 units of those fleets will be replaced by larger 321s. Some of the 319s will be replaced by A220s. The balance left is all 150/160 seats, and while the mission capabilities are different, the replacement options all have reasonably similar profiles.

Between now and 5 - 7 years all 250 (ish) will need to be replaced. There's no doubt that adding new planes today would be difficult. But will a recovery in 2022, and an opportunistic buy, it's not unthinkable that new puchases are in the cards. There are two options: 737-8 and A320neos. While the entire discussed fleet may not need to be replaced for a few, but short years, there will be a need for a slug of planes before you know it. Who do you think is hornier to make a deal: Boeing, or Airbus? Which can even fill the this likely need?

This thread maybe months old, but the subject is even more relevant now.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:57 pm

lightsaber wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
Spend millions for new planes when Delta has a very good deal on the 717 makes zero sense. I was with Delta in 2007. They said we are going to stick with what we have. Refresh all interiors,paint wifi and entertainment. And it worked we started making money. Most of the public have no clue what they fly in nor do they care. If they refresh the interior they have wifi and an outlet the sheeple are content. I’ve heard people say oh we are on a new plane. And it would be a refreshed 75. You think they check to see that the MD-88 they were on was 30 years old. Nooooooo

The 717s are already being partially retired. Due to poor economics of scale, the parts cost more. Going from memory, the engines are only certified for 8500 cycles between overhauls. RR was supposed to increase that as part of the DL acquisition, but I've heard nothing more. The CFM-56 and V2500 are good for 20k cycles. The Leap and PW1100G are designed for more, but new engines need a few PiPs to achieve target (even the venerable CF-34-8 and CF-34-10).

As the A220s receive their PiPs, there just won't be any competition once demand returns. The A220s were sold so cheap, break even is at about 5 hours a day of utilization per my back of the envelope calculations.

This is a case where replacing might be cheep enough. I believe the $38 million for the MAX is accurate:
https://leehamnews.com/2020/11/09/ponti ... ts-plunge/

That dramatically shortens the breakeven timeframe versus the older $45 or $46 million price for a MAX -8. The reported $41 for the -9 would be very attractive for DL.

It depends on financing.

Look at the Airbus pricing. A $38 million -8 MAX will reach break even in replacing an old aircraft much faster than a $52 million A321NEO.

There is a business case to differ one and go out and buy the other. I fully expect the US4 to be enticed by the MAX during the recovery. AS too. (I guess that would be US5?)

DL will retire the 717s in 2025. That means lease returns and no more heavy maintenance visits. That just means part of the 717 supply chain is done; there just aren't enough to sustain it without Delta. It means engine overhauls are almost done too (although the business jets help, a lot). I love the Douglas T-Tails, but it will be only scavanged parts going forward. That works until it doesn't.


Lightsaber


Apropos. Today AS announces it will take an additional 13 737-MAX9 through ALC (in exchange for ALC purchasing 10 A320s).
 
FlyingViking
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:54 pm

LAOCA wrote:
Timing aside for a moment, Delta recently retired close to 200 MD 88/90s. There's close to that amount of older A320/319s and 737-800s on property that are costlier to operate by today's standards. The 717s are largely irrelevant as they have been and are being replaced by A220s.

In the long run about 100 units of those fleets will be replaced by larger 321s. Some of the 319s will be replaced by A220s. The balance left is all 150/160 seats, and while the mission capabilities are different, the replacement options all have reasonably similar profiles.

Between now and 5 - 7 years all 250 (ish) will need to be replaced. There's no doubt that adding new planes today would be difficult. But will a recovery in 2022, and an opportunistic buy, it's not unthinkable that new puchases are in the cards. There are two options: 737-8 and A320neos. While the entire discussed fleet may not need to be replaced for a few, but short years, there will be a need for a slug of planes before you know it. Who do you think is hornier to make a deal: Boeing, or Airbus? Which can even fill the this likely need?

This thread maybe months old, but the subject is even more relevant now.


This is very common sense. And if there is one major international airline that has been good in playing the manufactures against each other for the lowest price I think it's Delta. When the phone rings in Chicago(Toulouse) it's a Hyde/Jekell thing the call you want but you also know it will gve you butt hurt: "Yes of course we want to sell a 100-200 jets, no we we don't like your offer, no no no we don't have the area code for France(USA), wait wait wait, let us get finance on the line".

Delta might just surprise me and order both 320NEO and 737-8. Ahhh to be the fly on the wall in the boardroom.
 
fpetrutiu
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Re: Delta hints at the possibility of purchasing Boeing’s 737 MAX: FT

Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:51 pm

snoopaloop wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
fpetrutiu wrote:
https://www.metro.us/delta-hints-at-the/

Ed Bastian: “We’re talking to Boeing about lots of different things, the Max included,” ... “If there is an opportunity where we would feel comfortable acquiring the MAX we’d have no hesitation doing that,”

This is interesting, however I highly doubt it. I think it would make more sense for DL to stick to Airbus right now, they are not pressed for having these planes immediately. I am sure they would get a kick ass deal from Boeing, but I just don't really see this making a lot of sense (an I am a Boeing fan)...

Thoughts?


There are more than 120 A320s and 737-800s at Delta that need replacement over the next 10 years. The 737-8 is an ideal replacement, especially given that Delta also has relatively new 130 737-900ERs, so the 737 will be in Deltas fleet anyway over the next few decades. For an Airline the size of Delta is does NOT make sense to have airplanes from only one manufacturer.


What about the A320neo?


I think it's going to come come down to price and availability. Boeing, I think, is probably offering a once-in-a-lifetime deal given DL history with Boeing and MAX's issues. I doubt Airbus would be come anywhere near Boeing's price on the NEO's.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:24 pm

While the theatrics and talk about random phone calls sounds cool that’s just now how it works in real life.

I guarantee there are monthly scheduled calls at the SVP level at airlines like DL with each OEM and engine manufacturer. These calls likely cover a miard of topics including deliveries, parts, support, etc and cover all relational aspects of the business. These executives know each other well. These are trusted business relationships.

Stuff like all this is covered as a routine part of business. No one is cold calling anyone.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:39 pm

Bastain has acknowledged that he believes there will be a permanent reduction of 10%-20% in business travel revenues — that’s freaking huge (and industry pundits think it’s too low).

Some people need to accept that DL will not match its 2019 size for some. There’s simply no point in discussing 1:1 replacements.

And that doesn’t even tap into the final disccusoo (re: debt load).
 
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DLHAM
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Re: Delta hints at the possibility of purchasing Boeing’s 737 MAX: FT

Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:29 pm

snoopaloop wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
fpetrutiu wrote:
https://www.metro.us/delta-hints-at-the/

Ed Bastian: “We’re talking to Boeing about lots of different things, the Max included,” ... “If there is an opportunity where we would feel comfortable acquiring the MAX we’d have no hesitation doing that,”

This is interesting, however I highly doubt it. I think it would make more sense for DL to stick to Airbus right now, they are not pressed for having these planes immediately. I am sure they would get a kick ass deal from Boeing, but I just don't really see this making a lot of sense (an I am a Boeing fan)...

Thoughts?


There are more than 120 A320s and 737-800s at Delta that need replacement over the next 10 years. The 737-8 is an ideal replacement, especially given that Delta also has relatively new 130 737-900ERs, so the 737 will be in Deltas fleet anyway over the next few decades. For an Airline the size of Delta is does NOT make sense to have airplanes from only one manufacturer.


What about the A320neo?


AFAIK the MAX8 is slightly better than the 320neo. Also the price should be muuuch better and earlier delivery positions plus some whitetails - available more or less instantly - to replace the oldest A320s.
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dampfnudel
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:56 pm

I was hoping DL would stay away from the Max, but realistically I knew that probably wouldn’t be possible given how well the Max would replace their aging B737-800 fleet.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:57 pm

DL doesn’t really need or want white tails instantly.

Keep in mind that DL has over 90 narrowbodies in storage at this time.

DL is continuing to send A320s for heavy maintenance visit.

DL is burning through 20mil/day

DL just took on 16 B in debt for
Liquidity.

DL has defferred and restructured deliveries on 10 B worth of purchase commitments.
 
FlyingViking
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:13 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
DL doesn’t really need or want white tails instantly.

Keep in mind that DL has over 90 narrowbodies in storage at this time.

DL is continuing to send A320s for heavy maintenance visit.

DL is burning through 20mil/day

DL just took on 16 B in debt for
Liquidity.

DL has defferred and restructured deliveries on 10 B worth of purchase commitments.



It's probably all speculation on everybody's part as I don't think there are any board members here at A.net.

So why would Ed Bastian make a comment like this? We know that Boeing is actively pushing the Max. Alaska just bit on another 13. Southwest was rumored to be looking at 40. Wouldn't Delta be next? Not for today or tomorrow of course but maybe middle of next year forward with lots of flexibility built in for dates and sizes. Why wouldn't they want to buy when prices are low? The 10 billion in negotiated deferred commitments might just have been inflated enough to leave some room for other purchases. I'll personally give it a year, if no Max commitment from Delta by then I'll eat crow, as I would expect the fire sale window would be rapidly closing by then. This barring any new train wrecks of course.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:48 am

Those that believe the Max is coming to DL in 2021 are entirely basing their claim on a snippet of an interview / quote taken without full context. In addition ignoring the fact as to how it’s a non descriptive milquetoast statement than is vague and non-committal at best. The CEO isn’t going to say anything of material value either way.

You cannot ignore the current status of DLs fleet, the commitments it has with Airbus, and the massive amount of debt and purchase commitments out there.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:33 am

ILNFlyer wrote:
This may not be a rumor any longer:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3638662-b ... king_alpha

Boeing and Delta in talks about 737 Max program
Nov. 23, 2020 8:52 AM ETThe Boeing Company (BA)By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor25 Comments
A little bit of good news for Boeing (NYSE:BA) was delivered by Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) CEO Ed Bastian.
"We're talking to Boeing about lots of different things, the Max included," Delta's top exec told the Financial Times over the weekend.
The disclosure is notable because Delta did not have the Boeing 737 MAX in its fleet when the plane was grounded in 2019.
"If there is an opportunity where we would feel comfortable acquiring the MAX we'd have no hesitation doing that," stated Bastian.


That’s just a word for word rehash of the FT article, nothing new. See reply #587
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VS11
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:47 am

FlyingViking wrote:
Why wouldn't they want to buy when prices are low?


Because they don’t know how/when the economic recovery will work out? Some of the previously unknown factors are known now i.e election, vaccine development but there are still plenty of other unknowns - will there be another stimulus, what kind, vaccine distribution and adoption, traffic rebound, particularly business travelers, etc. It must be hell trying to forecast/model all sorts of moving pieces. It is better to take it slow.

The potential downside is DL going back to their old and tried strategy of fixing and maintaining older aircraft if they can’t get newer ones at attractive prices. However, I seriously doubt airlines all over the world will go on a shopping spree in the next three years. The billions of dollars and euros borrowed during the crisis will have to be repaid. Airlines will actually be incentivized to keep capacity low to drive fares up as travel demand gradually builds up.
 
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Polot
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:20 pm

VS11 wrote:
FlyingViking wrote:
Why wouldn't they want to buy when prices are low?


Because they don’t know how/when the economic recovery will work out? Some of the previously unknown factors are known now i.e election, vaccine development but there are still plenty of other unknowns - will there be another stimulus, what kind, vaccine distribution and adoption, traffic rebound, particularly business travelers, etc. It must be hell trying to forecast/model all sorts of moving pieces. It is better to take it slow.

The potential downside is DL going back to their old and tried strategy of fixing and maintaining older aircraft if they can’t get newer ones at attractive prices. However, I seriously doubt airlines all over the world will go on a shopping spree in the next three years. The billions of dollars and euros borrowed during the crisis will have to be repaid. Airlines will actually be incentivized to keep capacity low to drive fares up as travel demand gradually builds up.

The potential upside is we are potentially talking about already built white tails. DL may be able to negotiate very favorable and flexible delivery dates (eg ability to push them out if recovery is slower than expected), as Boeing won’t have to deal with scheduling and filling out production slots but rather just deal with when they want to turn their attention to the parked jet and get it refreshed to DL’s specs.

I wouldn’t expect Boeing to agree to such a deal until deliveries have resumed and they have a better understanding on the logistics of how quickly they can get parked jets in customer’s hands though.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:08 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Exclusivity clauses can be problematic under U.S. law. 'And you can't buy new aircraft from anybody but us,' could be tested. Ask Intel, or Microsoft. Or Qualcomm.


Now you mention it, it's also worth remembering the days of the "gentleman's agreement" between Boeing and DL (along with AA and Continental) where they would exclusively buy from Boeing are long over.

FlyingViking wrote:
So why would Ed Bastian make a comment like this? We know that Boeing is actively pushing the Max. Alaska just bit on another 13. Southwest was rumored to be looking at 40. Wouldn't Delta be next? Not for today or tomorrow of course but maybe middle of next year forward with lots of flexibility built in for dates and sizes. Why wouldn't they want to buy when prices are low? The 10 billion in negotiated deferred commitments might just have been inflated enough to leave some room for other purchases. I'll personally give it a year, if no Max commitment from Delta by then I'll eat crow, as I would expect the fire sale window would be rapidly closing by then. This barring any new train wrecks of course.


Right now, I think DL's priority is survival. Same with their competitors. Placing large orders when they already have existing orders that have been deferred goes against that regardless of cost.

Could DL order MAX's at some point? Maybe (they have no qualms operating A320's and 737's and their post-COVID network will probably still be big enough to economically sustain a mixed fleet), but I can't see it in the short-term. I'm more interested to know if relations have since been smoothed over after Boeing's filing petition attempt a few years back when DL ordered A220's back when they were the Bombardier C-Series.

I'm going to file this topic in the "believe it when it happens" draw.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:22 pm

VS11 wrote:
FlyingViking wrote:
Why wouldn't they want to buy when prices are low?


Because they don’t know how/when the economic recovery will work out? Some of the previously unknown factors are known now i.e election, vaccine development but there are still plenty of other unknowns - will there be another stimulus, what kind, vaccine distribution and adoption, traffic rebound, particularly business travelers, etc. It must be hell trying to forecast/model all sorts of moving pieces. It is better to take it slow.


I don't think one could make a compelling argument for DL to take 215 new aircraft over the next three years (which was about their pre-pandemic purchase commitment, actually), but they could certainly place a new order for thirty or so. It's just $1 Billion, and DL doesn't have to worry about cash to make payroll eight months out. It's not the industry's financial position that's relevant - it's Delta's.

An order now could set up DL for replacement of the 320s (avg age 25.3 years), 319s (19 years), and 738s (19.3 years). The order for 50 223s will facilitate the replacement of the 117 CR2s and 91 717s (and one can quickly see that's still a big reduction in seats). That sets up the 321neo order as the 757 replacement (about 24 years) which can be effective on all but a few routes, and a conversion for twenty XLRs would fix that.

A few U.S. carriers have the financial strength to be looking more than 12 months down the road. DL is one of those.
 
Biophobe99
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:59 pm

I doubt DL will spring for white tails or order any MAX yet. As mentioned before it’s first priority is to stop the cash burn. Once that’s done I’d wager DL would look to rebuild and pay down debt by trying to utilize its current fleet to it’s fullest potential. There will be replacements from its current order list but I think any new fleet purchases are at least a year or two out. What I would expect is some opportunistic lightly used 737-800 purchases as the economy rebounds to help facilitate modest growth and to help retire some of the oldest planes in its 160 passenger fleet group.

The MAX does have the possibility of ending up in the DL fleet but I think it’ll be later on in the decade. Right now it’s too much cost to acquire and bring online.
 
777Mech
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:41 pm

Biophobe99 wrote:
I doubt DL will spring for white tails or order any MAX yet. As mentioned before it’s first priority is to stop the cash burn. Once that’s done I’d wager DL would look to rebuild and pay down debt by trying to utilize its current fleet to it’s fullest potential. There will be replacements from its current order list but I think any new fleet purchases are at least a year or two out. What I would expect is some opportunistic lightly used 737-800 purchases as the economy rebounds to help facilitate modest growth and to help retire some of the oldest planes in its 160 passenger fleet group.

The MAX does have the possibility of ending up in the DL fleet but I think it’ll be later on in the decade. Right now it’s too much cost to acquire and bring online.


I agree.

There is still the possibility of CFM screwing over Boeing by not allowing DL overhaul rights on the LEAP. That's how Airbus scored the NEO deal, with PWs help.
 
Osubuckeyes
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:11 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
While the theatrics and talk about random phone calls sounds cool that’s just now how it works in real life.

I guarantee there are monthly scheduled calls at the SVP level at airlines like DL with each OEM and engine manufacturer. These calls likely cover a miard of topics including deliveries, parts, support, etc and cover all relational aspects of the business. These executives know each other well. These are trusted business relationships.

Stuff like all this is covered as a routine part of business. No one is cold calling anyone.


I'm rolling on the floor imagining a Boeing rep cold calling a low level buyer soliciting a 737.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:26 pm

Osubuckeyes wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
While the theatrics and talk about random phone calls sounds cool that’s just now how it works in real life.

I guarantee there are monthly scheduled calls at the SVP level at airlines like DL with each OEM and engine manufacturer. These calls likely cover a miard of topics including deliveries, parts, support, etc and cover all relational aspects of the business. These executives know each other well. These are trusted business relationships.

Stuff like all this is covered as a routine part of business. No one is cold calling anyone.


I'm rolling on the floor imagining a Boeing rep cold calling a low level buyer soliciting a 737.


"Hi there! This is John from Boeing, we have some great new 737MAXes ready for delivery for a great deal just for you! Factory fresh and recent software update!"
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:35 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Osubuckeyes wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
While the theatrics and talk about random phone calls sounds cool that’s just now how it works in real life.

I guarantee there are monthly scheduled calls at the SVP level at airlines like DL with each OEM and engine manufacturer. These calls likely cover a miard of topics including deliveries, parts, support, etc and cover all relational aspects of the business. These executives know each other well. These are trusted business relationships.

Stuff like all this is covered as a routine part of business. No one is cold calling anyone.


I'm rolling on the floor imagining a Boeing rep cold calling a low level buyer soliciting a 737.


"Hi there! This is John from Boeing, we have some great new 737MAXes ready for delivery for a great deal just for you! Factory fresh and recent software update!"

No cold calls like that, but the facts are a MAX will never be cheaper than the offers prior to securing the next few years of sales.

Delta is an interesting case. They avoided buying when aircraft were overpriced. Now they are short of cash, but financing would be trivial and on good terms.

Lightsaber
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jbs2886
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:54 pm

lightsaber wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Osubuckeyes wrote:

I'm rolling on the floor imagining a Boeing rep cold calling a low level buyer soliciting a 737.


"Hi there! This is John from Boeing, we have some great new 737MAXes ready for delivery for a great deal just for you! Factory fresh and recent software update!"

No cold calls like that, but the facts are a MAX will never be cheaper than the offers prior to securing the next few years of sales.

Delta is an interesting case. They avoided buying when aircraft were overpriced. Now they are short of cash, but financing would be trivial and on good terms.

Lightsaber


I know, I was making a joke. And, I agree there will be good deals for airlines with financial ability to think long-term. For DL, its just going to be a question of need/can they make this work.
 
Elementalism
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:52 pm

I could see Delta setting up a deal for MAX's to replace the old A320s and 737-800s. Delivery date mid decade. Question, think they would opt for the -9? They seem to like the 737-900ERs.
Be interesting if they go with A321 NEO or the 737-10 for 757-200 domestic. I'd assume A321 NEO XLR for 757-200 transcon. Replacement date 2nd half of the decade.
 
Osubuckeyes
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:05 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Osubuckeyes wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
While the theatrics and talk about random phone calls sounds cool that’s just now how it works in real life.

I guarantee there are monthly scheduled calls at the SVP level at airlines like DL with each OEM and engine manufacturer. These calls likely cover a miard of topics including deliveries, parts, support, etc and cover all relational aspects of the business. These executives know each other well. These are trusted business relationships.

Stuff like all this is covered as a routine part of business. No one is cold calling anyone.


I'm rolling on the floor imagining a Boeing rep cold calling a low level buyer soliciting a 737.


"Hi there! This is John from Boeing, we have some great new 737MAXes ready for delivery for a great deal just for you! Factory fresh and recent software update!"


"We'll go ahead and get this free Yeti out to ya if you just give us the delivery address and we can set you up with 30 of our latest updated MAX models!"

More seriously, I think most everyone is overthinking it in this thread. Delta will be willing to make a deal if their risk assessment concludes that they aren't overleveraging themselves, its as simple as that. However, the whole crux of this discussion relies on Delta keeping controllable fixed costs low in the short term, and introducing a new fleet variant does not do that. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong in thinking that the MAX still has additional fixed costs of being introduced into the fleet as a new variant.
 
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william
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:20 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Osubuckeyes wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
While the theatrics and talk about random phone calls sounds cool that’s just now how it works in real life.

I guarantee there are monthly scheduled calls at the SVP level at airlines like DL with each OEM and engine manufacturer. These calls likely cover a miard of topics including deliveries, parts, support, etc and cover all relational aspects of the business. These executives know each other well. These are trusted business relationships.

Stuff like all this is covered as a routine part of business. No one is cold calling anyone.


I'm rolling on the floor imagining a Boeing rep cold calling a low level buyer soliciting a 737.


"Hi there! This is John from Boeing, we have some great new 737MAXes ready for delivery for a great deal just for you! Factory fresh and recent software update!"


Throw in some premium floor mats, extended warranty and a calendar, Delta may be interested. The Boeing salesman will have to talk to the Used Aircraft Manager about the 717 tradein. Delta is a tough negotiator. .
 
meh130
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:23 pm

Delta has a lot of old A320s. The A220s will replace the B717s and A319s, and the A321s will replace the 757-200s, but Delta has nothing on the order books to replace the A320s. That would be a good fit for 737 MAX 8s. The MAX 8 would also provide range on par with the 737-700s Delta has retired.
 
FlyingViking
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:42 am

Osubuckeyes wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Osubuckeyes wrote:

I'm rolling on the floor imagining a Boeing rep cold calling a low level buyer soliciting a 737.


"Hi there! This is John from Boeing, we have some great new 737MAXes ready for delivery for a great deal just for you! Factory fresh and recent software update!"


"We'll go ahead and get this free Yeti out to ya if you just give us the delivery address and we can set you up with 30 of our latest updated MAX models!"

More seriously, I think most everyone is overthinking it in this thread. Delta will be willing to make a deal if their risk assessment concludes that they aren't overleveraging themselves, its as simple as that. However, the whole crux of this discussion relies on Delta keeping controllable fixed costs low in the short term, and introducing a new fleet variant does not do that. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong in thinking that the MAX still has additional fixed costs of being introduced into the fleet as a new variant.


It'll cost money to introduce a new fleet of course, but they dont need to add a new type rating or pilot group, just a sim session or two or three for the 737 pilots and they will be good to go. Add in lots of savings on mx and fuel, it's a no brainer to me.

What's to say that Delta won't retire the 717 before 2025, if half are already permanently retired I wonder if it might just make sense to get rid of the fleet all together. If I'm reading their statements correctly it says that the 717 will be retired by 2025 not neccesarely in the year 2025. Again just my observation/thoughts, those frames would probably need to be replaced with a mix of A220 and something else in the 130-160 seat range......
Last edited by FlyingViking on Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
FlyingViking
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:43 am

william wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Osubuckeyes wrote:

I'm rolling on the floor imagining a Boeing rep cold calling a low level buyer soliciting a 737.


"Hi there! This is John from Boeing, we have some great new 737MAXes ready for delivery for a great deal just for you! Factory fresh and recent software update!"


Throw in some premium floor mats, extended warranty and a calendar, Delta may be interested. The Boeing salesman will have to talk to the Used Aircraft Manager about the 717 tradein. Delta is a tough negotiator. .


Don't forget 16" rims and free oil changes for a year.
 
FlyingViking
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:56 am

lightsaber wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Osubuckeyes wrote:

I'm rolling on the floor imagining a Boeing rep cold calling a low level buyer soliciting a 737.


"Hi there! This is John from Boeing, we have some great new 737MAXes ready for delivery for a great deal just for you! Factory fresh and recent software update!"

No cold calls like that, but the facts are a MAX will never be cheaper than the offers prior to securing the next few years of sales.

Delta is an interesting case. They avoided buying when aircraft were overpriced. Now they are short of cash, but financing would be trivial and on good terms.

Lightsaber


This is remisant of the A220 announcement, Bombardier was in trouble, nobody was buying, and here comes a horse named Delta riding in on stage and saves the program. Fast forward 4 1/2 years and we have almost the exact same senario. Same horse, same rider (Ed Bastian) and I think the rider just saddled the horse.
 
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:11 pm

FlyingViking wrote:
Osubuckeyes wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

"Hi there! This is John from Boeing, we have some great new 737MAXes ready for delivery for a great deal just for you! Factory fresh and recent software update!"


"We'll go ahead and get this free Yeti out to ya if you just give us the delivery address and we can set you up with 30 of our latest updated MAX models!"

More seriously, I think most everyone is overthinking it in this thread. Delta will be willing to make a deal if their risk assessment concludes that they aren't overleveraging themselves, its as simple as that. However, the whole crux of this discussion relies on Delta keeping controllable fixed costs low in the short term, and introducing a new fleet variant does not do that. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong in thinking that the MAX still has additional fixed costs of being introduced into the fleet as a new variant.


It'll cost money to introduce a new fleet of course, but they dont need to add a new type rating or pilot group, just a sim session or two or three for the 737 pilots and they will be good to go. Add in lots of savings on mx and fuel, it's a no brainer to me.

What's to say that Delta won't retire the 717 before 2025, if half are already permanently retired I wonder if it might just make sense to get rid of the fleet all together. If I'm reading their statements correctly it says that the 717 will be retired by 2025 not neccesarely in the year 2025. Again just my observation/thoughts, those frames would probably need to be replaced with a mix of A220 and something else in the 130-160 seat range......

Short term, as in 2021, I'm not sure there is a replacement need. Use up the lease and park. As demand returns, then something is needed.

Airlines won't return to 2019 traffic for a while. Planning needs to be around the changed customer profile (less business demand, more point to point).

Delta must still feed the main hubs (ATL, DTW, JFK, SLC). Everything else will have to work on O&D demand. I see small hubs at risk as they were built on business demand while liesure drives the market:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/secondary ... -iata/amp/


Cost reduction, instead of yield maximization, will be the key. I could see new aircraft to reduce costs; but only at the right price. That might be A220s and MAX. While DL will accept A321s, the NEO is too pricey for them in this environment...

Lightsaber
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:18 pm

FlyingViking wrote:
This is remisant of the A220 announcement, Bombardier was in trouble, nobody was buying, and here comes a horse named Delta riding in on stage and saves the program. Fast forward 4 1/2 years and we have almost the exact same senario. Same horse, same rider (Ed Bastian) and I think the rider just saddled the horse.

The difference is 4 1/2 years ago it was only Bombardier who was struggling, not the entire industry.
 
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:26 pm

Hi all

I'm barely 14 years old and am not that experienced into aviation, so please could someone help me and see if I'm right?

I think the 737MAX might be repetitive in their fleet. They have A220s with an average age of 1.2 years, A321s with average age of 2.5 years, 100+ A321neos coming online sometime soon, and barely 5 year old 737-900ERs. Plus, they have no imminent retirement date for A319s, A320s, 737-800s, or 757-200/300s. Since one would assume most of those aircraft are staying around, I don't really see the point for the 737MAX at this point in time. A lot of those aircraft fit in the same category of the 737MAX, and I think it'd just add more fleet complexity if they add this, as well as the A321neos.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Thanks


THE 757MAX IS HAPPENING TOMMOROW. (sorry I was just tempted.......)
Boeing is bringing back the 707 tomorrow, with Shinkai as the Chief Executive Officer and FLAIRPORT as the Chief Financial Officer.
 
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 3:31 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
Plus, they have no imminent retirement date for A319s, A320s, 737-800s, or 757-200/300s. Since one would assume most of those aircraft are staying around, I don't really see the point for the 737MAX at this point in time.


The remaining 52 A320s are old. The 100 757s are old. The 91 717s are going. The 77 738s are getting old. The 57 A319s are inefficient compared to A223s or MAX 8s. With a common pilot rating they won't keep the 753s or 764s long after the 757s and 767s are gone.

You don't snap your fingers and get ~400 narrowbody aircraft in a week. Buying a modest quantity of MAXs now sets in motion a decade-long process. DL will need a lot more narrowbody aircraft than the 100 321neos and fifty A223s on order, even if it takes five or six years to get back to 2019 domestic traffic levels.
 
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:25 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
Hi all

I'm barely 14 years old and am not that experienced into aviation, so please could someone help me and see if I'm right?

I think the 737MAX might be repetitive in their fleet. They have A220s with an average age of 1.2 years, A321s with average age of 2.5 years, 100+ A321neos coming online sometime soon, and barely 5 year old 737-900ERs. Plus, they have no imminent retirement date for A319s, A320s, 737-800s, or 757-200/300s. Since one would assume most of those aircraft are staying around, I don't really see the point for the 737MAX at this point in time. A lot of those aircraft fit in the same category of the 737MAX, and I think it'd just add more fleet complexity if they add this, as well as the A321neos.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Thanks


THE 757MAX IS HAPPENING TOMMOROW. (sorry I was just tempted.......)


I think you are a very wise young man.
 
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:13 pm

lightsaber wrote:
FlyingViking wrote:
Osubuckeyes wrote:

"We'll go ahead and get this free Yeti out to ya if you just give us the delivery address and we can set you up with 30 of our latest updated MAX models!"

More seriously, I think most everyone is overthinking it in this thread. Delta will be willing to make a deal if their risk assessment concludes that they aren't overleveraging themselves, its as simple as that. However, the whole crux of this discussion relies on Delta keeping controllable fixed costs low in the short term, and introducing a new fleet variant does not do that. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong in thinking that the MAX still has additional fixed costs of being introduced into the fleet as a new variant.


It'll cost money to introduce a new fleet of course, but they dont need to add a new type rating or pilot group, just a sim session or two or three for the 737 pilots and they will be good to go. Add in lots of savings on mx and fuel, it's a no brainer to me.

What's to say that Delta won't retire the 717 before 2025, if half are already permanently retired I wonder if it might just make sense to get rid of the fleet all together. If I'm reading their statements correctly it says that the 717 will be retired by 2025 not neccesarely in the year 2025. Again just my observation/thoughts, those frames would probably need to be replaced with a mix of A220 and something else in the 130-160 seat range......

Short term, as in 2021, I'm not sure there is a replacement need. Use up the lease and park. As demand returns, then something is needed.

Airlines won't return to 2019 traffic for a while. Planning needs to be around the changed customer profile (less business demand, more point to point).

Delta must still feed the main hubs (ATL, DTW, JFK, SLC). Everything else will have to work on O&D demand. I see small hubs at risk as they were built on business demand while liesure drives the market:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/secondary ... -iata/amp/


Cost reduction, instead of yield maximization, will be the key. I could see new aircraft to reduce costs; but only at the right price. That might be A220s and MAX. While DL will accept A321s, the NEO is too pricey for them in this environment...

Lightsaber


You are a lot better than me at typing what I'm thinking. Hehe.
 
FlyingViking
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:24 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:
Plus, they have no imminent retirement date for A319s, A320s, 737-800s, or 757-200/300s. Since one would assume most of those aircraft are staying around, I don't really see the point for the 737MAX at this point in time.


The remaining 52 A320s are old. The 100 757s are old. The 91 717s are going. The 77 738s are getting old. The 57 A319s are inefficient compared to A223s or MAX 8s. With a common pilot rating they won't keep the 753s or 764s long after the 757s and 767s are gone.

You don't snap your fingers and get ~400 narrowbody aircraft in a week. Buying a modest quantity of MAXs now sets in motion a decade-long process. DL will need a lot more narrowbody aircraft than the 100 321neos and fifty A223s on order, even if it takes five or six years to get back to 2019 domestic traffic levels.


Yeah it's not exactly like Ed Bastian just stopped by the dealer ship in the Seattle surbub of Renton and negotiated for a car that he want's delivered tonight as a surprise for his wife.

I absolutely agree, if indeed Delta goes with the Max it of course will be years and years of deliveries. It'a a buyers market I'm sure Boeing will bend over backwards to get Delta on board.
 
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:37 pm

timf wrote:
FlyingViking wrote:
This is remisant of the A220 announcement, Bombardier was in trouble, nobody was buying, and here comes a horse named Delta riding in on stage and saves the program. Fast forward 4 1/2 years and we have almost the exact same senario. Same horse, same rider (Ed Bastian) and I think the rider just saddled the horse.

The difference is 4 1/2 years ago it was only Bombardier who was struggling, not the entire industry.


Absolutely, but looking at just Delta - Boeing, isn't it the same page in the playbook though? It's just that the book got less plays in it now due to the impacts of Corona. I'm thinking specifically financing, however with Delta having the best? (WN?) balance sheet in the industry it might not be to much of a hindrance after all.
 
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:00 pm

FlyingViking wrote:
william wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

"Hi there! This is John from Boeing, we have some great new 737MAXes ready for delivery for a great deal just for you! Factory fresh and recent software update!"


Throw in some premium floor mats, extended warranty and a calendar, Delta may be interested. The Boeing salesman will have to talk to the Used Aircraft Manager about the 717 tradein. Delta is a tough negotiator. .


Don't forget 16" rims and free oil changes for a year.


And if you call now, you get a second MAX for free. Just pay shipping and handling.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:28 pm

ehaase wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:
Hi all

I'm barely 14 years old and am not that experienced into aviation, so please could someone help me and see if I'm right?

I think the 737MAX might be repetitive in their fleet. They have A220s with an average age of 1.2 years, A321s with average age of 2.5 years, 100+ A321neos coming online sometime soon, and barely 5 year old 737-900ERs. Plus, they have no imminent retirement date for A319s, A320s, 737-800s, or 757-200/300s. Since one would assume most of those aircraft are staying around, I don't really see the point for the 737MAX at this point in time. A lot of those aircraft fit in the same category of the 737MAX, and I think it'd just add more fleet complexity if they add this, as well as the A321neos.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Thanks


THE 757MAX IS HAPPENING TOMMOROW. (sorry I was just tempted.......)


I think you are a very wise young man.








Thanks. But FACE IT, you only said that because I said "THE 757MAX IS HAPPENING TOMMOROW." FACE IT.
Boeing is bringing back the 707 tomorrow, with Shinkai as the Chief Executive Officer and FLAIRPORT as the Chief Financial Officer.
 
ehaase
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:57 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:

Thanks. But FACE IT, you only said that because I said "THE 757MAX IS HAPPENING TOMMOROW." FACE IT.


No, Delta has enough options and orders for 220's and 321's to replace all the single aisle aircraft that will be over 25 years old by 2030. This 737 Max talk is preposterous to me.
 
seanpmassey
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:22 am

ehaase wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:

Thanks. But FACE IT, you only said that because I said "THE 757MAX IS HAPPENING TOMMOROW." FACE IT.


No, Delta has enough options and orders for 220's and 321's to replace all the single aisle aircraft that will be over 25 years old by 2030. This 737 Max talk is preposterous to me.


I don't remember if this has been touched on in the thread, or at least touched on lately.

How much flexibility do the current options and orders give Delta and Airbus? If it turns out that Delta needs a replacement for the 319s/320s sooner, as some have suggested, and more A220s to replace the 717s, or that business does not justify adding 100 321 Neos, how hard would it be to convert those 321 Neos to 320 Neos and A221s/223s?
 
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:27 am

ehaase wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:

Thanks. But FACE IT, you only said that because I said "THE 757MAX IS HAPPENING TOMMOROW." FACE IT.


No, Delta has enough options and orders for 220's and 321's to replace all the single aisle aircraft that will be over 25 years old by 2030. This 737 Max talk is preposterous to me.


Please show your math. The remaining Airbus narrowbody order does not cover the MD88, MD90, 717, A320, A319, 737-700, and 757 retirements.
 
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:40 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
ehaase wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:

Thanks. But FACE IT, you only said that because I said "THE 757MAX IS HAPPENING TOMMOROW." FACE IT.


No, Delta has enough options and orders for 220's and 321's to replace all the single aisle aircraft that will be over 25 years old by 2030. This 737 Max talk is preposterous to me.


Please show your math. The remaining Airbus narrowbody order does not cover the MD88, MD90, 717, A320, A319, 737-700, and 757 retirements.


200 A321neo (100 orders and 100 options)
113 A220 (63 orders remaining and 50 options)
22 A321
Total: 335 aircraft

You will note the poster said orders and options. So, if you take the much higher seat average with the A321s and exclude many MDs (most) that were already replaced, it’s not off on math. Indeed, the remaining aircraft not yet retired is about 275.

That being said, I think there is a place for the MAX in the fleet.
 
VictorKilo
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:45 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
ehaase wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:

Thanks. But FACE IT, you only said that because I said "THE 757MAX IS HAPPENING TOMMOROW." FACE IT.


No, Delta has enough options and orders for 220's and 321's to replace all the single aisle aircraft that will be over 25 years old by 2030. This 737 Max talk is preposterous to me.


Please show your math. The remaining Airbus narrowbody order does not cover the MD88, MD90, 717, A320, A319, 737-700, and 757 retirements.


Please show your understanding of how Delta operates its fleet.

A large portion of it is variable capacity - low fixed cost, fully depreciated frames that can be parked when they don’t make money and only flown when they can. Yes, the MD88 and MD90 filled this role, and they are retired, but the 757 and 320 fleets are stepping in to the role. They don’t need to be replaced quickly, because they won’t be flying that much - and that’s a feature, not a bug. Maybe if demand comes back stronger they get utilized more and DL runs out of green time on them - but in that scenario DL will have the cash to lease planes to replace them. And when the green time runs out on the 757 and 320 fleets, the 319 and 738 will fill that role, and the cycle moves forward.

If you don’t understand Delta's business model, you won’t understand their fleet replacement strategy. But if you do, you will understand why Delta won’t be taking on AA level debt on a shiny new fleet. It’s not their business model.
 
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:47 am

VictorKilo wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
ehaase wrote:

No, Delta has enough options and orders for 220's and 321's to replace all the single aisle aircraft that will be over 25 years old by 2030. This 737 Max talk is preposterous to me.


Please show your math. The remaining Airbus narrowbody order does not cover the MD88, MD90, 717, A320, A319, 737-700, and 757 retirements.


Please show your understanding of how Delta operates its fleet.

A large portion of it is variable capacity - low fixed cost, fully depreciated frames that can be parked when they don’t make money and only flown when they can. Yes, the MD88 and MD90 filled this role, and they are retired, but the 757 and 320 fleets are stepping in to the role. They don’t need to be replaced quickly, because they won’t be flying that much - and that’s a feature, not a bug. Maybe if demand comes back stronger they get utilized more and DL runs out of green time on them - but in that scenario DL will have the cash to lease planes to replace them. And when the green time runs out on the 757 and 320 fleets, the 319 and 738 will fill that role, and the cycle moves forward.

If you don’t understand Delta's business model, you won’t understand their fleet replacement strategy. But if you do, you will understand why Delta won’t be taking on AA level debt on a shiny new fleet. It’s not their business model.


Without evidence to back up your claims, it's pure speculation. Just like mine. Your airline has canceled nearly 250 flights for tomorrow. The spin has got to stop. Delta will not be in any position to take Airbus or Boeing planes anytime soon.
 
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:00 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
william wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
One thing that I'm not sure about. Delta just struck a deal with Airbus, deferring a lot of planes towards later delivery dates. Because of adversity, facing Delta.
Now, folks here talk about Delta taking a bunch of MAX'es, if the deal is right.
Are we to think that Airbus sales and legal teams are blind and silly, and would not formulate the deferral terms in a way, that once adversity is dissipating sufficiently (and placing new orders elsewhere could be construed as a signal adversity is no longer there), deferrals also dissipate, and Delta should start taking delivery of already ordered Airbuses?


Stop making sense and adding common sense to this discussion.


Exclusivity clauses can be problematic under U.S. law. 'And you can't buy new aircraft from anybody but us,' could be tested. Ask Intel, or Microsoft. Or Qualcomm.


An exclusive vendor agreement is actually quite common. Often it's negotiated as a "requirements" contract: Buyer agrees to buy. all the widgets needed from the Supplier and the Seller (supplier) agrees to provide what the buyer needs in a reasonable time.
 
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:09 am

I also find the speculation somewhat ridiculous. Not to say it won't happen, but I find it very unlikely for many reasons:
-MAX reputation
-MAX far to big to replace 717s 1 for 1. Pax want frequency
-Its another fleet type, Delta has stated repeatedly that they want to have fewer types.
-They competed the MAX against the 320 series already, and the MAX lost. What has changed?
-Airbus won't stand by and watch it happen, they'll compete
-Trump is leaving office, so the "buy American," thing is going by the wayside.
-The 321 is better than the MAX. It was winning in tbe marketplace BEFORE the crashes.
-Delta committing to expend that many resources at this time would be irresponsible.
-GE and CFM have alienated Delta
 
Opus99
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Nov 26, 2020 9:45 am

SteelChair wrote:
I also find the speculation somewhat ridiculous. Not to say it won't happen, but I find it very unlikely for many reasons:
-MAX reputation
-MAX far to big to replace 717s 1 for 1. Pax want frequency
-Its another fleet type, Delta has stated repeatedly that they want to have fewer types.
-They competed the MAX against the 320 series already, and the MAX lost. What has changed?
-Airbus won't stand by and watch it happen, they'll compete
-Trump is leaving office, so the "buy American," thing is going by the wayside.
-The 321 is better than the MAX. It was winning in tbe marketplace BEFORE the crashes.
-Delta committing to expend that many resources at this time would be irresponsible.
-GE and CFM have alienated Delta

I mean dl has a huge 737 fleet. Airbus doesn’t have the need to charge the price Boeing is going to go for. It doesn’t make any business sense. Their neo order book is about twice the size of the MAX. For aircrafts like this the price is going to be the key factor and commonality as well.

People think airlines are just here to please your aircraft demands because you like the space in a NEO. People this is a business, a profit maximisation business. If you’re giving me 320neo performance for 12 million dollars off? Are you kidding me?
MAX reputation? Please let’s be serious, then the whole of America won’t fly if it’s max reputation.

Of course DL are looking at the MAX heavily as they should.

Alaska closed a deal with the MAX 9. And some people said “oh! This doesn’t make sense!” How doesn’t it make sense? This is a business before anything else. Let us all remember that.

321 better than the MAX, over ranges they can both cover that is arguable. Neo. Even if, whatever gain you think you’re getting from the “better” 321, the lease price will wipe out that improvement from a DOC point of view.

Delta has over 200 NGS -800s and -900s. You’re giving them a 15% fuel burn break on those jets for 38-40 million.

Till date, the only thing Delta has used to replace their Boeing aircraft is the 321 for the 757 and that’s because I mean what else would you use?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:12 pm

Opus99 wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
I also find the speculation somewhat ridiculous. Not to say it won't happen, but I find it very unlikely for many reasons:
-MAX reputation
-MAX far to big to replace 717s 1 for 1. Pax want frequency
-Its another fleet type, Delta has stated repeatedly that they want to have fewer types.
-They competed the MAX against the 320 series already, and the MAX lost. What has changed?
-Airbus won't stand by and watch it happen, they'll compete
-Trump is leaving office, so the "buy American," thing is going by the wayside.
-The 321 is better than the MAX. It was winning in tbe marketplace BEFORE the crashes.
-Delta committing to expend that many resources at this time would be irresponsible.
-GE and CFM have alienated Delta

I mean dl has a huge 737 fleet. Airbus doesn’t have the need to charge the price Boeing is going to go for. It doesn’t make any business sense. Their neo order book is about twice the size of the MAX. For aircrafts like this the price is going to be the key factor and commonality as well.

People think airlines are just here to please your aircraft demands because you like the space in a NEO. People this is a business, a profit maximisation business. If you’re giving me 320neo performance for 12 million dollars off? Are you kidding me?
MAX reputation? Please let’s be serious, then the whole of America won’t fly if it’s max reputation.

Of course DL are looking at the MAX heavily as they should.

Alaska closed a deal with the MAX 9. And some people said “oh! This doesn’t make sense!” How doesn’t it make sense? This is a business before anything else. Let us all remember that.

321 better than the MAX, over ranges they can both cover that is arguable. Neo. Even if, whatever gain you think you’re getting from the “better” 321, the lease price will wipe out that improvement from a DOC point of view.

Delta has over 200 NGS -800s and -900s. You’re giving them a 15% fuel burn break on those jets for 38-40 million.

Till date, the only thing Delta has used to replace their Boeing aircraft is the 321 for the 757 and that’s because I mean what else would you use?

Eventually, Delta will need more aircraft. We can debate when, but if the domestic recovery happens by say May 2024 (I would expect normal summer travel by then), DL will need more aircraft and low cost aircraft. Options:
1. A220. I fully expect DL to negotiate for more.
2. MAX, I would expect a large order with 2022, 2023, and 2024 delivery dates. What I don't know is if -8 or -9 (probably a mix, but as Boeing allows customers to switch, I expect DL to adapt on future market demand). This depends on CFM giving DL engine overhaul and repair rights, of course.
3. Used. I fully expect DL to be an active buyer of used 737NG and CFM powered A320CEOs. Engine overhaul rights, if offered, might even push them into the deluge of V2500 powered CEOs (in particular, out of India).

DL will play everyone off against each other and do this off $$$. With all the other airlines flying MAX, the bad press will be too minimal to discuss.

I'm certain DL execs are starting negotiations. Since they have the strong hand...

Until Boeing sells a few hundred MAX, they will be hungry for orders. They and CFM need to buy into orders and only DL, FR, and IAG are known to myself (for large orders). All three will have to be offered earth moving deals.

So we cannot discount the MAX at DL. It isn't certain, but it is a deal for CFM or Boeing to lose.

Ghad, Delta will be *the* engine shop if CFM capitulates. (I think there is no choice, but not my money or bonus on the line.)

Lightsaber
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