I also find the speculation somewhat ridiculous. Not to say it won't happen, but I find it very unlikely for many reasons:
-MAX far to big to replace 717s 1 for 1. Pax want frequency
-Its another fleet type, Delta has stated repeatedly that they want to have fewer types.
-They competed the MAX against the 320 series already, and the MAX lost. What has changed?
-Airbus won't stand by and watch it happen, they'll compete
-Trump is leaving office, so the "buy American," thing is going by the wayside.
-The 321 is better than the MAX. It was winning in tbe marketplace BEFORE the crashes.
-Delta committing to expend that many resources at this time would be irresponsible.
-GE and CFM have alienated Delta
I mean dl has a huge 737 fleet. Airbus doesn’t have the need to charge the price Boeing is going to go for. It doesn’t make any business sense. Their neo order book is about twice the size of the MAX. For aircrafts like this the price is going to be the key factor and commonality as well.
People think airlines are just here to please your aircraft demands because you like the space in a NEO. People this is a business, a profit maximisation business. If you’re giving me 320neo performance for 12 million dollars off? Are you kidding me?
MAX reputation? Please let’s be serious, then the whole of America won’t fly if it’s max reputation.
Of course DL are looking at the MAX heavily as they should.
Alaska closed a deal with the MAX 9. And some people said “oh! This doesn’t make sense!” How doesn’t it make sense? This is a business before anything else. Let us all remember that.
321 better than the MAX, over ranges they can both cover that is arguable. Neo. Even if, whatever gain you think you’re getting from the “better” 321, the lease price will wipe out that improvement from a DOC point of view.
Delta has over 200 NGS -800s and -900s. You’re giving them a 15% fuel burn break on those jets for 38-40 million.
Till date, the only thing Delta has used to replace their Boeing aircraft is the 321 for the 757 and that’s because I mean what else would you use?
Eventually, Delta will need more aircraft. We can debate when, but if the domestic recovery happens by say May 2024 (I would expect normal summer travel by then), DL will need more aircraft and low cost aircraft. Options:
1. A220. I fully expect DL to negotiate for more.
2. MAX, I would expect a large order with 2022, 2023, and 2024 delivery dates. What I don't know is if -8 or -9 (probably a mix, but as Boeing allows customers to switch, I expect DL to adapt on future market demand). This depends on CFM giving DL engine overhaul and repair rights, of course.
3. Used. I fully expect DL to be an active buyer of used 737NG and CFM powered A320CEOs. Engine overhaul rights, if offered, might even push them into the deluge of V2500 powered CEOs (in particular, out of India).
DL will play everyone off against each other and do this off $$$. With all the other airlines flying MAX, the bad press will be too minimal to discuss.
I'm certain DL execs are starting negotiations. Since they have the strong hand...
Until Boeing sells a few hundred MAX, they will be hungry for orders. They and CFM need to buy into orders and only DL, FR, and IAG are known to myself (for large orders). All three will have to be offered earth moving deals.
So we cannot discount the MAX at DL. It isn't certain, but it is a deal for CFM or Boeing to lose.
Ghad, Delta will be *the* engine shop if CFM capitulates. (I think there is no choice, but not my money or bonus on the line.)
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.