fpetrutiu wrote:

https://www.metro.us/delta-hints-at-the/

Ed Bastian: “We’re talking to Boeing about lots of different things, the Max included,” ... “If there is an opportunity where we would feel comfortable acquiring the MAX we’d have no hesitation doing that,”

This is interesting, however I highly doubt it. I think it would make more sense for DL to stick to Airbus right now, they are not pressed for having these planes immediately. I am sure they would get a kick ass deal from Boeing, but I just don't really see this making a lot of sense (an I am a Boeing fan)...

Thoughts?

Sounds just like WN "looking" at Airbus. I just don't see it. Not when they already have a massive A320 family fleet. Delta has already started retiring their very young 737's. Why would they order new ones? They could also reject the 717 leases if they file for bankruptcy.

TTailedTiger wrote:

fpetrutiu wrote:

https://www.metro.us/delta-hints-at-the/

Ed Bastian: “We’re talking to Boeing about lots of different things, the Max included,” ... “If there is an opportunity where we would feel comfortable acquiring the MAX we’d have no hesitation doing that,”

This is interesting, however I highly doubt it. I think it would make more sense for DL to stick to Airbus right now, they are not pressed for having these planes immediately. I am sure they would get a kick ass deal from Boeing, but I just don't really see this making a lot of sense (an I am a Boeing fan)...

Thoughts?

Sounds just like WN "looking" at Airbus. I just don't see it. Not when they already have a massive A320 family fleet. Delta has already started retiring their very young 737's. Why would they order new ones? They could also reject the 717 leases if they file for bankruptcy.

Delta is only retired the small 737-700 fleet which was only 10

Delta has 69 737-800s and 115 737-900s.

Delta has no plans to retire there remaining 737s.

The 737 Max is the most tested, inspected aircraft under the latest methods. That is a silver lining coming out of the grounding. With white tails being available, a shrewd airline could get brand new narrow bodies at at very good rate.

Delta's A319/320 fleet is half of the 737 fleet. With almost 100 more 737s on property. During the Wuhu crazy, there are almost 100 more 737s operational for Delta than A319/320s. This means there are a massive number more 737 guys current and flying than A319/320. Additionally, with the cut to A319/320 flying, the pilots of that type rating have more than likely lost currency OR transferred to another type. So, the ability, to restart the A319/320 fleet is much harder than bringing on more 737 guys. This is also on top of the fact that the A319/320 fleet is on average, double the age of the 737 fleet.

So, Delta has an ability to pick up new 737s, at a great discounted rate, with plenty of people on property that have the type rating. They can replace the ancient A319/320 fleet and hold on to the 737-800s. Then, turn and replace the 737-800s. Leaving DL with an extremely young fleet of 737-900s, 737MAXs and A321s.

Ed Bastian: “We’re talking to Boeing about lots of different things, the Max included,

Wonder if those talks about lots of different things include widebodies, some 787-10s maybe?

130 739 and 77 738 none of which are to be retired soon. 739 are 0-6 years old last one was just delivered last year.

This rumor / thread needs to die.
The gate and relative timing of the 717 has been given by DL.
26 are already removed from from the fleet. Of the remaining 65,
DL has ~49 active.
Leases are expiring as they mature.

DL has a ton of capacity on order and deferred with Airbus. They have no need for any incremental capacity that Boeing could offer for the next
3+ years.

The max rumors At DL need to die for the time being.

CX747 wrote:

The 737 Max is the most tested, inspected aircraft under the latest methods. That is a silver lining coming out of the grounding. With white tails being available, a shrewd airline could get brand new narrow bodies at at very good rate.

Delta's A319/320 fleet is half of the 737 fleet. With almost 100 more 737s on property. During the Wuhu crazy, there are almost 100 more 737s operational for Delta than A319/320s. This means there are a massive number more 737 guys current and flying than A319/320. Additionally, with the cut to A319/320 flying, the pilots of that type rating have more than likely lost currency OR transferred to another type. So, the ability, to restart the A319/320 fleet is much harder than bringing on more 737 guys. This is also on top of the fact that the A319/320 fleet is on average, double the age of the 737 fleet.

So, Delta has an ability to pick up new 737s, at a great discounted rate, with plenty of people on property that have the type rating. They can replace the ancient A319/320 fleet and hold on to the 737-800s. Then, turn and replace the 737-800s. Leaving DL with an extremely young fleet of 737-900s, 737MAXs and A321s.

A lot of incorrect stuff here.

The same pilot category flies the A319, A320, A321.

Same as the 738, 739, and now gone 73G



Currently DL is operating :
~43 / 57 A319
~40 / 52 A320 (10 that were due for HMV were retired this year)
~96 / 104 A321

The 319 fleet is actually the same age as the 738s.

The argument about pilots and fleet age doesn’t hold water. Plus there is massive displacement on all fleet types driven by the retirement of the 777, and MD88/MD90

Stop.....stop.

No Max rumors
No 787 Rumors

Stop the insanity!

Boof02671 wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

fpetrutiu wrote:

https://www.metro.us/delta-hints-at-the/

Ed Bastian: “We’re talking to Boeing about lots of different things, the Max included,” ... “If there is an opportunity where we would feel comfortable acquiring the MAX we’d have no hesitation doing that,”

This is interesting, however I highly doubt it. I think it would make more sense for DL to stick to Airbus right now, they are not pressed for having these planes immediately. I am sure they would get a kick ass deal from Boeing, but I just don't really see this making a lot of sense (an I am a Boeing fan)...

Thoughts?

Sounds just like WN "looking" at Airbus. I just don't see it. Not when they already have a massive A320 family fleet. Delta has already started retiring their very young 737's. Why would they order new ones? They could also reject the 717 leases if they file for bankruptcy.

Delta is only retired the small 737-700 fleet which was only 10

Delta has 69 737-800s and 115 737-900s.

Delta has no plans to retire there remaining 737s.

One resent rumor was that Delta was looking at replacing the 737-800 with 737-8Max. Just a somebody heard something kind of thing. Makes sense in my mind though, and after all isn't that what AA is kind of doing?

fcogafa wrote:

Ed Bastian: “We’re talking to Boeing about lots of different things, the Max included,

Wonder if those talks about lots of different things include widebodies, some 787-10s maybe?

If I was a betting man.........The 787-8 and the 737-8 looks great in Delta colors. JMHO

Replacing 738 with Max is very possible but it’s not worth talking about now since that isn’t happening until 2026+

FlyingViking wrote:

Boof02671 wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

Sounds just like WN "looking" at Airbus. I just don't see it. Not when they already have a massive A320 family fleet. Delta has already started retiring their very young 737's. Why would they order new ones? They could also reject the 717 leases if they file for bankruptcy.

Delta is only retired the small 737-700 fleet which was only 10

Delta has 69 737-800s and 115 737-900s.

Delta has no plans to retire there remaining 737s.

One resent rumor was that Delta was looking at replacing the 737-800 with 737-8Max. Just a somebody heard something kind of thing. Makes sense in my mind though, and after all isn't that what AA is kind of doing?

Maybe about 25 of the oldest. That was the precovid plan

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Stop.....stop.

No Max rumors
No 787 Rumors

Stop the insanity!

Isn't it impossible???
DL will acquire the 787 and the MAX as if Boeing gives a good enough deal for Delta.
That is how business works: deals and benefits first, safety and relationship might not the first priority.

Again, no insanity here as if DL orders some Boeings. There is no rule forcing DL to be a full-Airbus carrier. And as I mention, it is all about the deals.

"Good enough deals"? As Boeing is said negotiating with DL to sell dozens of whitetails for a dirt-cheap price, let see if that "dirt cheap price" can be a "good enough deal" for DL. The same thing goes with the 787.

TTailedTiger wrote:

fpetrutiu wrote:

https://www.metro.us/delta-hints-at-the/

Ed Bastian: “We’re talking to Boeing about lots of different things, the Max included,” ... “If there is an opportunity where we would feel comfortable acquiring the MAX we’d have no hesitation doing that,”

This is interesting, however I highly doubt it. I think it would make more sense for DL to stick to Airbus right now, they are not pressed for having these planes immediately. I am sure they would get a kick ass deal from Boeing, but I just don't really see this making a lot of sense (an I am a Boeing fan)...

Thoughts?

Sounds just like WN "looking" at Airbus. I just don't see it. Not when they already have a massive A320 family fleet. Delta has already started retiring their very young 737's. Why would they order new ones? They could also reject the 717 leases if they file for bankruptcy.

My opinion: some (34) of their A320s are very old (30ish years old), and the rest are around 20 (give or take). Some of their 738s are also getting up there in age (most are around 20). An order of say 100-150 7M8s would cover some 717 and 320 lift (and probably some 738s as they get older) over the next few years. So, short term, it’d be to cover the 717s and A320s. 5-10 years out I could see all their 320s and most of their 738s gone with a NB fleet consisting of A221/223, 7M8/739 (maybe some 738s), and A321/3N1.

It’s pretty darn near impossible in the next 5 years with all the purchase commitments they already have with Airbus, additional capacity they don’t need, and the cap ex constraint and other austerity measures they will need to dig out of the debt from the Covid downturn.

More fleet types and even more capacity in the near term doesn’t solve these issues.

HMVs on A320, 738, and 757 is far cheaper in the next 5 Years that getting Even more new airplanes.

Again zero need for the Max at DL 2026+.

I’d love to see the math the rest of you are thinking that would suggest otherwise.

FlyingViking wrote:

One resent rumor was that Delta was looking at replacing the 737-800 with 737-8Max. Just a somebody heard something kind of thing. Makes sense in my mind though, and after all isn't that what AA is kind of doing?

DL is focused on rebuilding its network for the post-COVID era; Ed Bastian recently said that he thinks that there will be a permanent reduction of between 10% and 20% in business travel revenues. DL has lots of planes on order, many of which likely will be deferred into the second half of the decade. Replacing the 738 is not on DL's radar status quo. That DL is negotiating for MAX... is just wishful thinking.

Recall that the last several years have been turbulent on a.net regarding A350gate. There were literally hundreds of "rumors" that DL absolutely hated the A350 because it couldn't perform the LAX-SYD -- the (a.net) self-proclaimed crown jewel of the DL network -- and was getting ready to trade the aircraft in for 787. How quickly all was forgotten when DL opted to retire the 777 (the plane DL purchased to fly routes like LAX-SYD) and schedule the 359 on LAX-SYD! Turns out, all those "rumors" were really wishful thinking. Just like now...

Please refer to the shear number of A221, A223, A321Ceo, A321NEO, A339, and A359 with purchase commitments over the next 5 years and tell me how in the heck there is any need or financial commitment necessary for the MAX in this timeframe?

As noted in several previous posts Delta is deferring new aircraft deliveries for at least one year. Delta has an excess of aircraft which puts Delta in the position that it does not need to acquire new aircraft. As previously stated in earlier posts the majority of the leases expire on the 717s within the next two and a half years. I am sure that Delta could extend those leases on a month to month basis or have a clause on the lease extensions that allow Delta to give a 30 or 60 day notice that it intendeds to return the aircraft. If Boeing does not agree Delta will return the aircraft. With the exception of Hawaiian Airlines there are not other airlines that may have any interest in the 717. When Delta returns those aircraft they will be flown to the desert and be used as feed stock for any 717s that Delta and Hawaiian may still operate. Other than engines, cockpit instrumentation and electronic equipment there will be little value left on the airframe and scraping them will be a loss on the expense to do so. Delta will not add 737 MAX aircraft. If it does, which I doubt, Delta will wait until the 737 MAX has flown accident and incident free for at least two to three years. Delta would just keep flying the aircraft it does not need to retire while encouraging both Boeing and Airbus to build a suitable new generation replacement.

Agree! Well put and succinct. I'm not saying that Delta will NEVER fly the MAX, there simply isn't a huge need for it at this moment. Delta really wants a new generation type. They'll poke and prod Boeing to build the 797, while quietly whispering into Airbus' ear to upgrade the A320NEO family even further. In the end, Delta will be the winner, probably the launch customer for whatever comes next from either manufacturer, in an enviable position to influence both producers to build what Delta wants, and capable of securing lucrative and timely build slots. I totally agree with your assessment.

Aptivaboy wrote:

As noted in several previous posts Delta is deferring new aircraft deliveries for at least one year. Delta has an excess of aircraft which puts Delta in the position that it does not need to acquire new aircraft. As previously stated in earlier posts the majority of the leases expire on the 717s within the next two and a half years. I am sure that Delta could extend those leases on a month to month basis or have a clause on the lease extensions that allow Delta to give a 30 or 60 day notice that it intendeds to return the aircraft. If Boeing does not agree Delta will return the aircraft. With the exception of Hawaiian Airlines there are not other airlines that may have any interest in the 717. When Delta returns those aircraft they will be flown to the desert and be used as feed stock for any 717s that Delta and Hawaiian may still operate. Other than engines, cockpit instrumentation and electronic equipment there will be little value left on the airframe and scraping them will be a loss on the expense to do so. Delta will not add 737 MAX aircraft. If it does, which I doubt, Delta will wait until the 737 MAX has flown accident and incident free for at least two to three years. Delta would just keep flying the aircraft it does not need to retire while encouraging both Boeing and Airbus to build a suitable new generation replacement.

Agree! Well put and succinct. I'm not saying that Delta will NEVER fly the MAX, there simply isn't a huge need for it at this moment. Delta really wants a new generation type. They'll poke and prod Boeing to build the 797, while quietly whispering into Airbus' ear to upgrade the A320NEO family even further. In the end, Delta will be the winner, probably the launch customer for whatever comes next from either manufacturer, in an enviable position to influence both producers to build what Delta wants, and capable of securing lucrative and timely build slots. I totally agree with your assessment.

I have a feeling Boeing knows better than to put too much weight into what Delta tells them. They got burned on the 787 order. And Boeing would have already started working on a new design if there were engines available to power it. But there won't be any new engines available for that size category for quite some time.

lightsaber wrote:

Unlikely rumor. Delta is not taking on debt now. Delta has mid-term contracts on the 717 for parts.

I do expect DL to order the MAX, but later and after brutal negotiations.

Lightsaber

They probably will after the MAX has proven it can go several years with a clean safety record. I wonder if there is still some bitterness towards Boeing given they shafted DL with the A220 tariffs?

Dominion301 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Unlikely rumor. Delta is not taking on debt now. Delta has mid-term contracts on the 717 for parts.

I do expect DL to order the MAX, but later and after brutal negotiations.

Lightsaber

They probably will after the MAX has proven it can go several years with a clean safety record. I wonder if there is still some bitterness towards Boeing given they shafted DL with the A220 tariffs?

It's just my opinion but I think the bad blood started before that. Richard Anderson claimed the resale value of a 777 was only about $7 million and that they had bought one at that price. What Anderson neglected to say was that it was only purchased for parts. Anderson also referred to the 777X as a "paper airplane" but then praised the A330neo which at that point in time hadn't moved beyond the drawing board either. I have no idea if Bastian is legitimately trying to improve relations with Boeing or just putting on a show to maybe get better pricing from Airbus.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

CX747 wrote:

The 737 Max is the most tested, inspected aircraft under the latest methods. That is a silver lining coming out of the grounding. With white tails being available, a shrewd airline could get brand new narrow bodies at at very good rate.

Delta's A319/320 fleet is half of the 737 fleet. With almost 100 more 737s on property. During the Wuhu crazy, there are almost 100 more 737s operational for Delta than A319/320s. This means there are a massive number more 737 guys current and flying than A319/320. Additionally, with the cut to A319/320 flying, the pilots of that type rating have more than likely lost currency OR transferred to another type. So, the ability, to restart the A319/320 fleet is much harder than bringing on more 737 guys. This is also on top of the fact that the A319/320 fleet is on average, double the age of the 737 fleet.

So, Delta has an ability to pick up new 737s, at a great discounted rate, with plenty of people on property that have the type rating. They can replace the ancient A319/320 fleet and hold on to the 737-800s. Then, turn and replace the 737-800s. Leaving DL with an extremely young fleet of 737-900s, 737MAXs and A321s.

A lot of incorrect stuff here.

The same pilot category flies the A319, A320, A321.

Same as the 738, 739, and now gone 73G



Currently DL is operating :
~43 / 57 A319
~40 / 52 A320 (10 that were due for HMV were retired this year)
~96 / 104 A321

The 319 fleet is actually the same age as the 738s.

The argument about pilots and fleet age doesn’t hold water. Plus there is massive displacement on all fleet types driven by the retirement of the 777, and MD88/MD90

Far more 737s are being operated than A319/320s... Correct statement.

Far more 737 guys from the pool current than Airbus pool drivers... Corrrect statement.

More guys displaced from A319/320 than 737 and in need of a JOB to do... Correct statement.

Age of A319/320 average, double that of the 737 fleet... Correct statement.

Get rid of all your old A319/320s just like other older types like the MD-80. Replace them with younger, more efficient aircraft, at a fantastic price. Then turn and replace your eldest 737s. A completely refreshed fleet of 737s and newish A321s to come at the market, as the Wuhu crazy begins to fade....

Management will worry about Airbus orders down the road. Any current "orders" that were on the books aren't worth holding your breath over. You have no idea if they are looking to dump all the A319/320s and replace every two frames with a new 737. Bargain basement price on a brand new asset and two older clunkers off your books. You start getting lawyers involved in future "orders" from Pre-Wuhu and everything becomes negotiable.

At the end of the day, it's the Delta CEO making this noise. Whether you like it or not, that's going to draw attention to remarks made.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Again zero need for the Max at DL 2026+.

I’d love to see the math the rest of you are thinking that would suggest otherwise.

The CEO made the comments. I understand frustration when someone out of the blue on a website makes claims but sorry, the Chief Indian is making these statements.

You have no idea what actual numbers he is looking at. He could be getting brand new 737s, for a cut rate deal, at the same time dumping ancient A319/320s and the 717 fleet. Basically having Boeing replace 3 current birds, with 1 new bird.

CX747 wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

CX747 wrote:

The 737 Max is the most tested, inspected aircraft under the latest methods. That is a silver lining coming out of the grounding. With white tails being available, a shrewd airline could get brand new narrow bodies at at very good rate.

Delta's A319/320 fleet is half of the 737 fleet. With almost 100 more 737s on property. During the Wuhu crazy, there are almost 100 more 737s operational for Delta than A319/320s. This means there are a massive number more 737 guys current and flying than A319/320. Additionally, with the cut to A319/320 flying, the pilots of that type rating have more than likely lost currency OR transferred to another type. So, the ability, to restart the A319/320 fleet is much harder than bringing on more 737 guys. This is also on top of the fact that the A319/320 fleet is on average, double the age of the 737 fleet.

So, Delta has an ability to pick up new 737s, at a great discounted rate, with plenty of people on property that have the type rating. They can replace the ancient A319/320 fleet and hold on to the 737-800s. Then, turn and replace the 737-800s. Leaving DL with an extremely young fleet of 737-900s, 737MAXs and A321s.

A lot of incorrect stuff here.

The same pilot category flies the A319, A320, A321.

Same as the 738, 739, and now gone 73G



Currently DL is operating :
~43 / 57 A319
~40 / 52 A320 (10 that were due for HMV were retired this year)
~96 / 104 A321

The 319 fleet is actually the same age as the 738s.

The argument about pilots and fleet age doesn’t hold water. Plus there is massive displacement on all fleet types driven by the retirement of the 777, and MD88/MD90

Far more 737s are being operated than A319/320s... Correct statement.

Far more 737 guys from the pool current than Airbus pool drivers... Corrrect statement.

More guys displaced from A319/320 than 737 and in need of a JOB to do... Correct statement.

Age of A319/320 average, double that of the 737 fleet... Correct statement.

Get rid of all your old A319/320s just like other older types like the MD-80. Replace them with younger, more efficient aircraft, at a fantastic price. Then turn and replace your eldest 737s. A completely refreshed fleet of 737s and newish A321s to come at the market, as the Wuhu crazy begins to fade....

Management will worry about Airbus orders down the road. Any current "orders" that were on the books aren't worth holding your breath over. You have no idea if they are looking to dump all the A319/320s and replace every two frames with a new 737. Bargain basement price on a brand new asset and two older clunkers off your books. You start getting lawyers involved in future "orders" from Pre-Wuhu and everything becomes negotiable.

At the end of the day, it's the Delta CEO making this noise. Whether you like it or not, that's going to draw attention to remarks made.

If you want to count that way, maybe use the 737 numbers without the -900ER. So you have 77 frames with an average age of 19,3 years. This is the same logic you're using on the A320 family by simply ignoring 105 A321s. So PSU.DTW.SCE was totally correct with his statements. You have a total fleet of 214 aircraft for the A32x fleet and 207 for the 737 fleet. This is a real world comparison! If you want to make compare, please use fair numbers.

TTailedTiger wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Unlikely rumor. Delta is not taking on debt now. Delta has mid-term contracts on the 717 for parts.

I do expect DL to order the MAX, but later and after brutal negotiations.

Lightsaber

They probably will after the MAX has proven it can go several years with a clean safety record. I wonder if there is still some bitterness towards Boeing given they shafted DL with the A220 tariffs?

It's just my opinion but I think the bad blood started before that. Richard Anderson claimed the resale value of a 777 was only about $7 million and that they had bought one at that price. What Anderson neglected to say was that it was only purchased for parts. Anderson also referred to the 777X as a "paper airplane" but then praised the A330neo which at that point in time hadn't moved beyond the drawing board either. I have no idea if Bastian is legitimately trying to improve relations with Boeing or just putting on a show to maybe get better pricing from Airbus.

No before that, when Delta was going through Bankruptcy Boeing played hardball as a creditor. Delta was none too happy.

Delta is smart to go for the best deal. Period. If Airbus is giving the best deals to Delta then so be it. That is how it should be.

william wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

They probably will after the MAX has proven it can go several years with a clean safety record. I wonder if there is still some bitterness towards Boeing given they shafted DL with the A220 tariffs?

It's just my opinion but I think the bad blood started before that. Richard Anderson claimed the resale value of a 777 was only about $7 million and that they had bought one at that price. What Anderson neglected to say was that it was only purchased for parts. Anderson also referred to the 777X as a "paper airplane" but then praised the A330neo which at that point in time hadn't moved beyond the drawing board either. I have no idea if Bastian is legitimately trying to improve relations with Boeing or just putting on a show to maybe get better pricing from Airbus.

No before that, when Delta was going through Bankruptcy Boeing played hardball as a creditor. Delta was none too happy.

Delta is smart to go for the best deal. Period. If Airbus is giving the best deals to Delta then so be it. That is how it should be.

Plenty of moves and counter moves. Delta is a shrewd carrier. Think about their massive MD80/717 fleet that went on for years. Park them when not needed, run them back out there when you do. Dumped the 787 order, jumped on Airbus for a heck of a deal. All at a time when they supposedly didn't like Boeing but were gobbling up 737-900s at an enormous rate. Even moving around tariffs on Airbus deliveries. Times are indeed tight but a good business man looks for opportunity when others are running. An overwhelming portion of the A319 and A320 fleet is old. The 737-800 fleet is on average a little younger but still getting on.

You could get rid of old maintenance hog A319/320s, which you don't have guys for anyway and be able to replace them with brand new machinery at amazing prices. The same can be done for the 717 and 737-800 fleets. I think they can get top dollar for the 737-800 as the conversion market will snap them up very quickly.

fpetrutiu wrote:

https://www.metro.us/delta-hints-at-the/

Ed Bastian: “We’re talking to Boeing about lots of different things, the Max included,” ... “If there is an opportunity where we would feel comfortable acquiring the MAX we’d have no hesitation doing that,”

This is interesting, however I highly doubt it. I think it would make more sense for DL to stick to Airbus right now, they are not pressed for having these planes immediately. I am sure they would get a kick ass deal from Boeing, but I just don't really see this making a lot of sense (an I am a Boeing fan)...

Thoughts?

There are more than 120 A320s and 737-800s at Delta that need replacement over the next 10 years. The 737-8 is an ideal replacement, especially given that Delta also has relatively new 130 737-900ERs, so the 737 will be in Deltas fleet anyway over the next few decades. For an Airline the size of Delta is does NOT make sense to have airplanes from only one manufacturer.

DLHAM wrote:

fpetrutiu wrote:

https://www.metro.us/delta-hints-at-the/

Ed Bastian: “We’re talking to Boeing about lots of different things, the Max included,” ... “If there is an opportunity where we would feel comfortable acquiring the MAX we’d have no hesitation doing that,”

This is interesting, however I highly doubt it. I think it would make more sense for DL to stick to Airbus right now, they are not pressed for having these planes immediately. I am sure they would get a kick ass deal from Boeing, but I just don't really see this making a lot of sense (an I am a Boeing fan)...

Thoughts?

There are more than 120 A320s and 737-800s at Delta that need replacement over the next 10 years. The 737-8 is an ideal replacement, especially given that Delta also has relatively new 130 737-900ERs, so the 737 will be in Deltas fleet anyway over the next few decades. For an Airline the size of Delta is does NOT make sense to have airplanes from only one manufacturer.

What about the A320neo?

Could we please discuss the topic and keep the off topic and personal comments out of the discussion. For those users trying to derail the thread to get it locked, just stop, either add to the topic in a constructive and meaningful way or move on to the next topic. Those who continue to act in this manner will find themselves on the end of a warning or ban

LHA320 wrote:

CX747 wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

A lot of incorrect stuff here.

The same pilot category flies the A319, A320, A321.

Same as the 738, 739, and now gone 73G



Currently DL is operating :
~43 / 57 A319
~40 / 52 A320 (10 that were due for HMV were retired this year)
~96 / 104 A321

The 319 fleet is actually the same age as the 738s.

The argument about pilots and fleet age doesn’t hold water. Plus there is massive displacement on all fleet types driven by the retirement of the 777, and MD88/MD90

Far more 737s are being operated than A319/320s... Correct statement.

Far more 737 guys from the pool current than Airbus pool drivers... Corrrect statement.

More guys displaced from A319/320 than 737 and in need of a JOB to do... Correct statement.

Age of A319/320 average, double that of the 737 fleet... Correct statement.

Get rid of all your old A319/320s just like other older types like the MD-80. Replace them with younger, more efficient aircraft, at a fantastic price. Then turn and replace your eldest 737s. A completely refreshed fleet of 737s and newish A321s to come at the market, as the Wuhu crazy begins to fade....

Management will worry about Airbus orders down the road. Any current "orders" that were on the books aren't worth holding your breath over. You have no idea if they are looking to dump all the A319/320s and replace every two frames with a new 737. Bargain basement price on a brand new asset and two older clunkers off your books. You start getting lawyers involved in future "orders" from Pre-Wuhu and everything becomes negotiable.

At the end of the day, it's the Delta CEO making this noise. Whether you like it or not, that's going to draw attention to remarks made.

If you want to count that way, maybe use the 737 numbers without the -900ER. So you have 77 frames with an average age of 19,3 years. This is the same logic you're using on the A320 family by simply ignoring 105 A321s. So PSU.DTW.SCE was totally correct with his statements. You have a total fleet of 214 aircraft for the A32x fleet and 207 for the 737 fleet. This is a real world comparison! If you want to make compare, please use fair numbers.

It isn't an apples to apples comparison all the time when looking at aircraft. Plus it is not always just an airplane we are discussing but the crews needed to fly it. As discussed later, there is a large portion of AA, DL and UA putting applications in with freight companies. I've heard/seen several conversations of AA/DL/UA guys looking to see where they would rack and stack if they applied for an FO position with Atlas on the 747.

The DL 737-800 fleet is on average 3 years younger than the A319/320 fleet. Those fleets are the fleets in question, along with the 717 fleet when discussing replacement. There have been more A319/320 aircraft parked than 737s. That's another fact that makes the A319/320 a better candidate to potentially head out prior to the 737. As said before, some of the A319/320 pilots of just 4 months ago could be card carrying, loving it every second DL 757 pilots today. Heck, they could have bailed on DL and are now somewhere westward over the Pacific on an Atlas Air 747-400F as a newly minted First Officer.

One argument I could see for replacing the 737-800s prior to the A319/320 is sales price. 737-800s are very, very hot commodities right now for the P2F market and DL takes great care of their machinery. Used A319/320s are not going to hold the same value. The current play by DL right now may be swing an A319/320/738/717 replacement with one, still smells brand new, 737-8 fleet, at a greatly discounted rate

CX747 wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Again zero need for the Max at DL 2026+.

I’d love to see the math the rest of you are thinking that would suggest otherwise.

The CEO made the comments. I understand frustration when someone out of the blue on a website makes claims but sorry, the Chief Indian is making these statements.

You have no idea what actual numbers he is looking at. He could be getting brand new 737s, for a cut rate deal, at the same time dumping ancient A319/320s and the 717 fleet. Basically having Boeing replace 3 current birds, with 1 new bird.

Unless the CEO just wanted A.netters to resurrect this thread, I can't picture him making a statement like this kind out of the blue. Something is up. JMHO

CX747 wrote:

One argument I could see for replacing the 737-800s prior to the A319/320 is sales price. 737-800s are very, very hot commodities right now for the P2F market and DL takes great care of their machinery. Used A319/320s are not going to hold the same value. The current play by DL right now may be swing an A319/320/738/717 replacement with one, still smells brand new, 737-8 fleet, at a greatly discounted rate

While it's a capable aircraft, the 737-8 will not be a replacement for all of the types that you listed. Let's look at the aircraft and their seat counts in a Delta configuration:
B717: 110 seats
A319: 132 seats
A320: 157 seats
B738: 160 seats

American squeezes 172 seats into their Max 8's, and Delta would likely have somewhere between 160 and 172 seats in a Max 8. While this would only be a slight upgauge for the A320s and 738s, it would be a significant upgauge for the B717s and A319s. I can't see Delta making that large of a capacity increase for these bodies, especially when they have the A220-series aircraft. If they need to replace the A319, it would likely be with more A223s, not the Max 8.

That's not to say that the Max 8 will never appear in Delta colors. It's just that Delta already has a capacity glut, is still losing millions of dollars every day due to the reduction in travel, and is deferring all new aircraft deliveries for a year. That doesn't strike me as a candidate to buy up white tails.

FlyingViking wrote:

Unless the CEO just wanted A.netters to resurrect this thread, I can't picture him making a statement like this kind out of the blue. Something is up. JMHO

This kind of speculation happens a lot around here. It doesn't mean anything is afoot. It could just be corporate due diligence, or keeping Airbus honest.

For more examples of this, see any thread about Southwest talking to Airbus about the A220.

Spend millions for new planes when Delta has a very good deal on the 717 makes zero sense. I was with Delta in 2007. They said we are going to stick with what we have. Refresh all interiors,paint wifi and entertainment. And it worked we started making money. Most of the public have no clue what they fly in nor do they care. If they refresh the interior they have wifi and an outlet the sheeple are content. I’ve heard people say oh we are on a new plane. And it would be a refreshed 75. You think they check to see that the MD-88 they were on was 30 years old. Nooooooo

One thing that I'm not sure about. Delta just struck a deal with Airbus, deferring a lot of planes towards later delivery dates. Because of adversity, facing Delta.
Now, folks here talk about Delta taking a bunch of MAX'es, if the deal is right.
Are we to think that Airbus sales and legal teams are blind and silly, and would not formulate the deferral terms in a way, that once adversity is dissipating sufficiently (and placing new orders elsewhere could be construed as a signal adversity is no longer there), deferrals also dissipate, and Delta should start taking delivery of already ordered Airbuses?

CX747 wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Again zero need for the Max at DL 2026+.

I’d love to see the math the rest of you are thinking that would suggest otherwise.

The CEO made the comments. I understand frustration when someone out of the blue on a website makes claims but sorry, the Chief Indian is making these statements.

You have no idea what actual numbers he is looking at. He could be getting brand new 737s, for a cut rate deal, at the same time dumping ancient A319/320s and the 717 fleet. Basically having Boeing replace 3 current birds, with 1 new bird.

No, he didn't. A FT reporter asked him something along the lines of 'you've been buying Airbus... blah blah blah... in light of Boeing's problems, do you see yourself using them as a vendor again?' and he responded with a generic 'we talk with Boeing about a lot of things; should we come across the right deal, we'd have no problem purchasing the MAX.' While I'm aware that thirsty Boeing fan boys want to give life to his comments, let's be rational: to weather COVID, DL took on a huge amount of debt. DL has over 200 aircraft on order, representing several billion dollars in purchase commitments; these aircraft were suppose to be on property by 2025, but DL will likely defer many into the second half of the decade. Put simply... DL isn't negotiating for MORE aircraft when it can't even take delivery of the planes it's already ordered.

CX747 wrote:

The DL 737-800 fleet is on average 3 years younger than the A319/320 fleet. Those fleets are the fleets in question, along with the 717 fleet when discussing replacement. There have been more A319/320 aircraft parked than 737s. That's another fact that makes the A319/320 a better candidate to potentially head out prior to the 737. As said before, some of the A319/320 pilots of just 4 months ago could be card carrying, loving it every second DL 757 pilots today. Heck, they could have bailed on DL and are now somewhere westward over the Pacific on an Atlas Air 747-400F as a newly minted First Officer.

One argument I could see for replacing the 737-800s prior to the A319/320 is sales price. 737-800s are very, very hot commodities right now for the P2F market and DL takes great care of their machinery. Used A319/320s are not going to hold the same value. The current play by DL right now may be swing an A319/320/738/717 replacement with one, still smells brand new, 737-8 fleet, at a greatly discounted rate

Deceptive -- if you remove the handful of remaining early 1990s build A320, the 319/320 fleet is slightly younger than the 738. DL just took on a mountain of debt... the 319/320 & 738 fleets may shrink but they'll be around for a long while.

WidebodyPTV wrote:

Deceptive -- if you remove the handful of remaining early 1990s build A320, the 319/320 fleet is slightly younger than the 738. DL just took on a mountain of debt... the 319/320 & 738 fleets may shrink but they'll be around for a long while.

That statement is a bit deceptive too— 34 of DL’s 52 A320s are from 1993 or early. It’s a bit more than a “handful”.

The MAX at Delta is inevitable really. I’m more interested in the “lots of different things” lots of different things like what?

Well, with all the A350's inbound where is the best place to get pilots to fly those a/c, from the 737 fleet of guys flying non-FBW a/c or from the Airbus fleet of guys already flying FBW a/c and side sticks?
Is that something different, having some focus on the human element versus pure machine interface with the company?

Ok I will try to be nicer this morning but I am going to present my final case:

DL reached an agreement with Airbus that resulted in the deferral and revised delivery schedule on ~200 narrowbody aircraft.

Purchase commitments:
Aircraft Type Purchase Commitments
A220-100 14
A220-300 50
A321-200 24
A321-200neo 100
A330-900neo 30
A350-900 20
CRJ-900 2
Total 240

In $:
Our future aircraft purchase commitments totaled approximately $14.2 billion at September 30, 2020:

(in millions) Revised 9/2020 versus 12/2019 figure (pre-COVID)
2020 $ 380 vs 2,980
2021 1,310 vs 3,740
2022 2,460 vs 3,390
2023 2,310 vs 1,640
2024 2,960 vs 500
Thereafter 4,810 vs 1,440
Total $ 14,230 vs 13,690

These figures above illustrate just how much DL was deferred out over the next decade of its original purchase commitments from Airbus. DL and Airbus have not yet publically disclosured the details and revised delivery schedules yet, as the heavily redacted details from an agreement reached in July 2020 were attached to the 10-K filing.
Prior to COVID, DL's purchase commitments were essentially solidified out through 2023, with the need for additional orders needed beyond that timeframe. With the revised purchase commitments, they are essentially solidified out through at least 2025+. Unverified at this point, but deliveries in 2021 will mostly a smaller number of A220, A321CEO, and a couple of A339s. A321NEOs may be pushed out to 2022 or 2023.

DL and Airbus view each other as strategic partners, and relationships are often solidified during times of adversity. Both parties reached an agreement / settlement that is tough for both sides but obviously has some degree of compromise to accommodate the dire condition both parties are in at this time.
There is zero need for additional aircraft orders / purchase commitments for the next 5+ years by DL.

DL has made clear of its near-term fleet changes which on the narrowbody side has included:
47 MD88 - were to be gone by end of 2020 anyways
30 MD90 - were to be gone by end of 2022
10 B73G - small sub-fleet, high CASM, that were coming due for heavy maintenance
10 A320s - 10 from the older trance that were next-up for heavy maintenance checks in 2020

The fate of the 717 fleet was made official with them all to be retired by the end of 2025
26 B717s already removed from the fleet that aren't going to be reactivated
49 are currently in-service

Yes, the A319, A320, 738, and 757s will all be scheduled for retirement over the next decade.
Yes, there will be an opportunity for a potential MAX order at some point
However, that time is not now.
Not when DL is burning through $20M/day in cash
Not when they just increased their debt load by $16B (or something like that)
Not when they deferred over $10 B of aircraft purchase commitments.

For the routes that DL primarily use their A319, A320, 738s, there is minimal efficiency gain of the MAX. DL has a disproportionate number of <2 hour routes, if not <1 hour routes with mid-sized mainline aircraft from ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC. Its a lot more cost-effective in the near-term put them through their last and final HMVs that to invest in new aircraft with money that frankly doesn't exist at this time.

The most plausible window for the MAX at DL is 2026+, when they get through most of the existing Airbus purchase commitments, and likely go through an RFP process when they are looking at replacing the bulk of the 738 fleet, along with A319 & 757s

DL757NYC wrote:

Spend millions for new planes when Delta has a very good deal on the 717 makes zero sense. I was with Delta in 2007. They said we are going to stick with what we have. Refresh all interiors,paint wifi and entertainment. And it worked we started making money. Most of the public have no clue what they fly in nor do they care. If they refresh the interior they have wifi and an outlet the sheeple are content. I’ve heard people say oh we are on a new plane. And it would be a refreshed 75. You think they check to see that the MD-88 they were on was 30 years old. Nooooooo

The 717s are already being partially retired. Due to poor economics of scale, the parts cost more. Going from memory, the engines are only certified for 8500 cycles between overhauls. RR was supposed to increase that as part of the DL acquisition, but I've heard nothing more. The CFM-56 and V2500 are good for 20k cycles. The Leap and PW1100G are designed for more, but new engines need a few PiPs to achieve target (even the venerable CF-34-8 and CF-34-10).

As the A220s receive their PiPs, there just won't be any competition once demand returns. The A220s were sold so cheap, break even is at about 5 hours a day of utilization per my back of the envelope calculations.

This is a case where replacing might be cheep enough. I believe the $38 million for the MAX is accurate:
https://leehamnews.com/2020/11/09/ponti ... ts-plunge/

That dramatically shortens the breakeven timeframe versus the older $45 or $46 million price for a MAX -8. The reported $41 for the -9 would be very attractive for DL.

It depends on financing.

Look at the Airbus pricing. A $38 million -8 MAX will reach break even in replacing an old aircraft much faster than a $52 million A321NEO.

There is a business case to differ one and go out and buy the other. I fully expect the US4 to be enticed by the MAX during the recovery. AS too. (I guess that would be US5?)

DL will retire the 717s in 2025. That means lease returns and no more heavy maintenance visits. That just means part of the 717 supply chain is done; there just aren't enough to sustain it without Delta. It means engine overhauls are almost done too (although the business jets help, a lot). I love the Douglas T-Tails, but it will be only scavanged parts going forward. That works until it doesn't.


Lightsaber

par13del wrote:

Well, with all the A350's inbound where is the best place to get pilots to fly those a/c, from the 737 fleet of guys flying non-FBW a/c or from the Airbus fleet of guys already flying FBW a/c and side sticks?
Is that something different, having some focus on the human element versus pure machine interface with the company?

What matters is the real world at union airlines like DL is pilot seniority / bidding, not what a/c they currently fly.

Pilots bid the plane and the base, and if their seniority holds it, they get it.

Senior 737 guys will beat out less senior A320 guys if both bid on the A350 flying from the same base.

Of course they may be beat out by even more senior guys who just lost their seats on 777, etc.

par13del wrote:

Well, with all the A350's inbound where is the best place to get pilots to fly those a/c, from the 737 fleet of guys flying non-FBW a/c or from the Airbus fleet of guys already flying FBW a/c and side sticks?
Is that something different, having some focus on the human element versus pure machine interface with the company?

The pilots would come from wherever they bid off of at Delta. There is some magical process to allow Delta to just move pilots where they want, it’s called seniority.

And don’t forget the will park all the 763s by 2025

lightsaber wrote:

DL757NYC wrote:

Spend millions for new planes when Delta has a very good deal on the 717 makes zero sense. I was with Delta in 2007. They said we are going to stick with what we have. Refresh all interiors,paint wifi and entertainment. And it worked we started making money. Most of the public have no clue what they fly in nor do they care. If they refresh the interior they have wifi and an outlet the sheeple are content. I’ve heard people say oh we are on a new plane. And it would be a refreshed 75. You think they check to see that the MD-88 they were on was 30 years old. Nooooooo

The 717s are already being partially retired. Due to poor economics of scale, the parts cost more. Going from memory, the engines are only certified for 8500 cycles between overhauls. RR was supposed to increase that as part of the DL acquisition, but I've heard nothing more. The CFM-56 and V2500 are good for 20k cycles. The Leap and PW1100G are designed for more, but new engines need a few PiPs to achieve target (even the venerable CF-34-8 and CF-34-10).

As the A220s receive their PiPs, there just won't be any competition once demand returns. The A220s were sold so cheap, break even is at about 5 hours a day of utilization per my back of the envelope calculations.

This is a case where replacing might be cheep enough. I believe the $38 million for the MAX is accurate:
https://leehamnews.com/2020/11/09/ponti ... ts-plunge/

That dramatically shortens the breakeven timeframe versus the older $45 or $46 million price for a MAX -8. The reported $41 for the -9 would be very attractive for DL.

It depends on financing.

Look at the Airbus pricing. A $38 million -8 MAX will reach break even in replacing an old aircraft much faster than a $52 million A321NEO.

There is a business case to differ one and go out and buy the other. I fully expect the US4 to be enticed by the MAX during the recovery. AS too. (I guess that would be US5?)

DL will retire the 717s in 2025. That means lease returns and no more heavy maintenance visits. That just means part of the 717 supply chain is done; there just aren't enough to sustain it without Delta. It means engine overhauls are almost done too (although the business jets help, a lot). I love the Douglas T-Tails, but it will be only scavanged parts going forward. That works until it doesn't.


Lightsaber

$38 mil per -8 frame? I just got to 99.9% in my JMHB that it will be in Delta colors maybe 2021/22?

Different airline of course, and from another thread, Alaska just ordered 13 Maxes. Are they the only ones that get deals they can't refuse?

I agree that Delta has all the Airbus orders they need, and I'm sure as being a large important customer has been able to restructure their orders with enough flexibility to align as much as possible with their view of the future. But why would same large airline that's a known screwed negotiater that's not afraid to walk (787-8) if they dont see the econimics in it, put all thier future procurement eggs in one manufactures basket? Boeing is hurting obviously, but part of the hurt just got recertified, covid vacines are on the doorstep, it's byers market right now, but for how long? Boeing is obviously dealing,

This may not be a rumor any longer:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3638662-b ... king_alpha

Boeing and Delta in talks about 737 Max program
Nov. 23, 2020 8:52 AM ETThe Boeing Company (BA)By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor25 Comments
A little bit of good news for Boeing (NYSE:BA) was delivered by Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) CEO Ed Bastian.
"We're talking to Boeing about lots of different things, the Max included," Delta's top exec told the Financial Times over the weekend.
The disclosure is notable because Delta did not have the Boeing 737 MAX in its fleet when the plane was grounded in 2019.
"If there is an opportunity where we would feel comfortable acquiring the MAX we'd have no hesitation doing that," stated Bastian.

I don't understand why some seem to think just because Delta makes an order for the MAX that it means they will start taking delivery of these next month. IF an order for MAXs comes along I am sure the first deliveries will be 1-2 years away and something that could help Delta recover if things turn around quicker than expected add to this pilots will more than likely need to go through some extra sim training for the MAXs and you see this as being a long term plan.

CX747 wrote:

LHA320 wrote:

CX747 wrote:

Far more 737s are being operated than A319/320s... Correct statement.

Far more 737 guys from the pool current than Airbus pool drivers... Corrrect statement.

More guys displaced from A319/320 than 737 and in need of a JOB to do... Correct statement.

Age of A319/320 average, double that of the 737 fleet... Correct statement.

Get rid of all your old A319/320s just like other older types like the MD-80. Replace them with younger, more efficient aircraft, at a fantastic price. Then turn and replace your eldest 737s. A completely refreshed fleet of 737s and newish A321s to come at the market, as the Wuhu crazy begins to fade....

Management will worry about Airbus orders down the road. Any current "orders" that were on the books aren't worth holding your breath over. You have no idea if they are looking to dump all the A319/320s and replace every two frames with a new 737. Bargain basement price on a brand new asset and two older clunkers off your books. You start getting lawyers involved in future "orders" from Pre-Wuhu and everything becomes negotiable.

At the end of the day, it's the Delta CEO making this noise. Whether you like it or not, that's going to draw attention to remarks made.

If you want to count that way, maybe use the 737 numbers without the -900ER. So you have 77 frames with an average age of 19,3 years. This is the same logic you're using on the A320 family by simply ignoring 105 A321s. So PSU.DTW.SCE was totally correct with his statements. You have a total fleet of 214 aircraft for the A32x fleet and 207 for the 737 fleet. This is a real world comparison! If you want to make compare, please use fair numbers.

It isn't an apples to apples comparison all the time when looking at aircraft. Plus it is not always just an airplane we are discussing but the crews needed to fly it. As discussed later, there is a large portion of AA, DL and UA putting applications in with freight companies. I've heard/seen several conversations of AA/DL/UA guys looking to see where they would rack and stack if they applied for an FO position with Atlas on the 747.

The DL 737-800 fleet is on average 3 years younger than the A319/320 fleet. Those fleets are the fleets in question, along with the 717 fleet when discussing replacement. There have been more A319/320 aircraft parked than 737s. That's another fact that makes the A319/320 a better candidate to potentially head out prior to the 737. As said before, some of the A319/320 pilots of just 4 months ago could be card carrying, loving it every second DL 757 pilots today. Heck, they could have bailed on DL and are now somewhere westward over the Pacific on an Atlas Air 747-400F as a newly minted First Officer.

One argument I could see for replacing the 737-800s prior to the A319/320 is sales price. 737-800s are very, very hot commodities right now for the P2F market and DL takes great care of their machinery. Used A319/320s are not going to hold the same value. The current play by DL right now may be swing an A319/320/738/717 replacement with one, still smells brand new, 737-8 fleet, at a greatly discounted rate

The number of Delta pilots applying at Atlas is probably the same number of pilots applying at Breeze. Pretty much just a handful of those thinking they were going to get furloughed so they were lining up future employment. To infer that there is this big shift of pilots going to the freight companies from the big three that would cause staffing issues at the big three is just not based in reality. A career at the big three is better financially then at Atlas.

And if pilots lose currency (landings, recurrent training etc) all it takes is a one or two day sim event to get them current. So not a hurdle that would drive retiring a fleet, especially now when you have an excess of pilots for the amount of flying being done.

Phosphorus wrote:

One thing that I'm not sure about. Delta just struck a deal with Airbus, deferring a lot of planes towards later delivery dates. Because of adversity, facing Delta.
Now, folks here talk about Delta taking a bunch of MAX'es, if the deal is right.
Are we to think that Airbus sales and legal teams are blind and silly, and would not formulate the deferral terms in a way, that once adversity is dissipating sufficiently (and placing new orders elsewhere could be construed as a signal adversity is no longer there), deferrals also dissipate, and Delta should start taking delivery of already ordered Airbuses?

Stop making sense and adding common sense to this discussion.

ILNFlyer wrote:

This may not be a rumor any longer:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3638662-b ... king_alpha

Boeing and Delta in talks about 737 Max program
Nov. 23, 2020 8:52 AM ETThe Boeing Company (BA)By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor25 Comments
A little bit of good news for Boeing (NYSE:BA) was delivered by Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) CEO Ed Bastian.
"We're talking to Boeing about lots of different things, the Max included," Delta's top exec told the Financial Times over the weekend.
The disclosure is notable because Delta did not have the Boeing 737 MAX in its fleet when the plane was grounded in 2019.
"If there is an opportunity where we would feel comfortable acquiring the MAX we'd have no hesitation doing that," stated Bastian.

Forget about the Max part of the news, the "lots of different things" makes for interesting imagination and possibilities.