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LAX772LR
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Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:29 am

Well, the Aerion AS2 still seems to be a go.
Aviation Week reports that the company is unveiling what they're now calling the final design:

Image

https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/aeri ... jet-design


Changes include a much more delta-shaped wing; engine intakes switched from supersonic ramps to conic external compression; dual-tandem main gear; 2 wing-mounted engines + center tail, instead of 3 tail-mounted; and a length reduction of 36ft.

It's claimed to still be on track for 2024, and they've officially named parts/component suppliers:

Image


Of all the post-Concorde proposals, I've always felt that this one had the strongest chance of ever becoming a reality; tough I still won't believe it until I see one on an apron, ready to taxi out for takeoff.

Its entire purpose seems to be undercut by the current question of "Should we go there at all?" versus "Should we pay extra to go faster?" It's not dissimilar from the fate of Concorde itself, after the loss of the likes of Canter Fitzgerald.

Then again, this proposal is now 16yrs-old, and will have survived two enormous market downturns, if indeed it makes it past 2020. So I guess we'll see.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:38 am

For reference, this was the original proposed design:

Image




And this was the design that's been touted for the majority of this proposal's history:

Image
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:46 am

Like out of a sci-fi movie.

Who will be the market though, with such low capacity? Will it be only private jets for HNWI or maybe also something along the lines of the BA flight from LCY to New York?
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:58 am

Airbus747 wrote:
or maybe also something along the lines of the BA flight from LCY to New York?

BA likely has enough to worry about, than to be chasing a tentative proposal, for the sake of a business model so marginal that it couldn't sustain more than a single aircraft during even the best of times.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:04 am

First of all: Cool.

Secondly: bring back the 3-holers.

Third: oh boy, will there be a market in 2024?!
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:47 am

Nice looks... how many seats on this? How much more oil per seat than an A350? The website says it will be able to (but will not necessarily) run on biofuel and that it will go at 1,000 mph (mach 1.7?), not as fast as Concorde’s mach 2.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:16 am

Looks like I'm missing something.
They basically show a complete new plane - new wing layout, new engine mount, new inlets - but want to keep the schedule and deliver in 5 years? Given that 5 years is what it took majors to reengine 737 and 320?
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:27 am

If it reminds me of anything it must be the B-58
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:37 am

Eh, kinda reminds me of the B1, if it was scaled down to three engines, lost its variable sweep wing, and was cost optimized.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:08 pm

Id say this Might happen in 15-20 years time. Def not 2024 - though we can dream...
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:32 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Airbus747 wrote:
or maybe also something along the lines of the BA flight from LCY to New York?

BA likely has enough to worry about, than to be chasing a tentative proposal, for the sake of a business model so marginal that it couldn't sustain more than a single aircraft during even the best of times.


Doesn't LCY have noise limitations?
If this plane will ever take to the skies it will probably be too loud.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:56 pm

Aceme wrote:
Id say this Might happen in 15-20 years time. Def not 2024 - though we can dream...


If the climate deteriorates like it has this thing will not be allowed to take off in 15-20 years.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:15 pm

kalvado wrote:
Looks like I'm missing something.
They basically show a complete new plane - new wing layout, new engine mount, new inlets - but want to keep the schedule and deliver in 5 years? Given that 5 years is what it took majors to reengine 737 and 320?

I'm dubious about the dates (and the market opportunity too!) but I'm not sure the benchmark should be the "majors".

Look at how long it's taking Boeing to develop spacecraft, for instance, versus SpaceX.

I'm also not surprised about the "final" design looking very different than the early designs.

Are they still using re-built 60s/70s vintage engines?
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:18 pm

IWMBH wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Airbus747 wrote:
or maybe also something along the lines of the BA flight from LCY to New York?

BA likely has enough to worry about, than to be chasing a tentative proposal, for the sake of a business model so marginal that it couldn't sustain more than a single aircraft during even the best of times.


Doesn't LCY have noise limitations?
If this plane will ever take to the skies it will probably be too loud.


Good point... would be interesting to find out then who exactly would operate / pay to fly this and from where.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:20 pm

HNWI and possibly a few other outliers. It seats 8-12, IIRC.

https://www.aerionsupersonic.com/
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:53 pm

Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Looks like I'm missing something.
They basically show a complete new plane - new wing layout, new engine mount, new inlets - but want to keep the schedule and deliver in 5 years? Given that 5 years is what it took majors to reengine 737 and 320?

I'm dubious about the dates (and the market opportunity too!) but I'm not sure the benchmark should be the "majors".

Look at how long it's taking Boeing to develop spacecraft, for instance, versus SpaceX.

I'm also not surprised about the "final" design looking very different than the early designs.

Are they still using re-built 60s/70s vintage engines?

If anything, drastic changes in design mean that a lot of previous work has to be thrown out. If they actually have some sonic boom reduction technologies, those should dictate a lot of things about design - and with engines and wing leading edge being major flow disruptors, this casts a shadow on the existence of any boom reduction technologies. No boom reduction means business case reduced even further, if not eliminated...
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:17 pm

Thanks for sharing the Aviation Week article - it is a very good read and anyone reading this thread should definitely read the article to understand what is happening. Very interesting to see they’ve ditched the supersonic natural laminar flow wing which had been their major point of difference to other concepts. From the article it seems to be a decision driven by a change of operating model from high subsonic over land to low supersonic making use of technologies to eliminate sonic boom.

Given they are talking about 4 years to first flight (prior to disruptions caused by COVID-19), I wonder how long this significant change has been in the works for.

LAX772LR wrote:
For reference, this was the original proposed design:

Image




And this was the design that's been touted for the majority of this proposal's history:

Image

You’ve missed the two T-tail designs, first with overwing engines then with underwing, which is what the Aviation Week article references against:

Image

Image

It has definitely been an interesting road they have travelled. I wonder if between the two of us with the four previous iterations we’ve still missed some. It would be cool to draw up a timeline of this.

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Last edited by VirginFlyer on Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:26 pm

kalvado wrote:
means business case reduced even further, if not eliminated...

Hate to say it, but we were probably there before this proposal was ever made.

No aircraft, no matter how fast, will ever challenge the speed of an electronic signal.
Concorde survived because that wasn't even a factor in the '70s and '80s, and not a strong enough one in the '90s.

Come the early '00s, people had to ask themselves if paying $12,000 for a ticket was worth it when an e-signed PDF + virtual conference could accomplish 99% of anything that a supersonic day-trip could.

....and THAT, as hard as it may be to believe, was two decades go. The technology has improved by a quantum leap, and unfortunately for this proposal: so has the will to USE that tech. COVID has taken it a step further, by diminishing the value of "in person" to the point of being a liability!

**********************************
So yeah, the only real market for this thing seems to be HNWI for personal use.

But after all the Shelly Adelsons, Richard Bransons, Walton brats, and Epstein wannabes of the world have placed their orders, just how many people are going to be able/willing to slap down $100million+ just to be able to fly their underaged mistresses down to the Caribbean an hour faster?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:40 pm

1.would be amazing for LCY-JFK . Sadly I think just a dream. Would be very cool

2.timing sadly seems the most challenging ever to make financially work

With technology, lie flat beds, high speed Internet, suites with walls, unlimited on demand tv and movies it seems like less people need to get there fast imho. Can't stay productive and entertained on the flight or just sleep now. That wasn't true during Concorde. Wouldn't any super wealthy person prefer a private jet over a seat
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:45 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Can't stay productive and entertained on the flight or just sleep now. That wasn't true during Concorde. Wouldn't any super wealthy person prefer a private jet over a seat

...you just said three different contradictory things here. Which is it :confused:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:50 pm

As far as I can tell, it seems like Aerion is essentially a passion project of billionaire owner Robert Bass.

I hope they make it off the ground, and make a go of it. But wondering if it's just going to sputter along until Bass loses interest or runs out of money.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:58 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
kalvado wrote:
means business case reduced even further, if not eliminated...

Hate to say it, but we were probably there before this proposal was ever made.

No aircraft, no matter how fast, will ever challenge the speed of an electronic signal.
Concorde survived because that wasn't even a factor in the '70s and '80s, and not a strong enough one in the '90s.

Come the early '00s, people had to ask themselves if paying $12,000 for a ticket was worth it when an e-signed PDF + virtual conference could accomplish 99% of anything that a supersonic day-trip could.

....and THAT, as hard as it may be to believe, was two decades go. The technology has improved by a quantum leap, and unfortunately for this proposal: so has the will to USE that tech. COVID has taken it a step further, by diminishing the value of "in person" to the point of being a liability!

**********************************
So yeah, the only real market for this thing seems to be HNWI for personal use.

But after all the Shelly Adelsons, Richard Bransons, Walton brats, and Epstein wannabes of the world have placed their orders, just how many people are going to be able/willing to slap down $100million+ just to be able to fly their underaged mistresses down to the Caribbean an hour faster?


While I’m dubious about the SSBJ, history has lessons. Grumman thought, if they sold a G II to every identified customer, sales would total 90 frames. They sold 254 and went to sell well over a thousand of the follow-on designs. BBD designed the Global Express on a 250 plane production run, they approaching 1,000 with the G7500. Over 3,000 Lears and 3,000 Citations at the lower end of the market. Don’t fight history.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:03 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Well, the Aerion AS2 still seems to be a go.
Aviation Week reports that the company is unveiling what they're now calling the final design:

Image

https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/aeri ... jet-design


Changes include a much more delta-shaped wing; engine intakes switched from supersonic ramps to conic external compression; dual-tandem main gear; 2 wing-mounted engines + center tail, instead of 3 tail-mounted; and a length reduction of 36ft.

It's claimed to still be on track for 2024, and they've officially named parts/component suppliers:

Image


Of all the post-Concorde proposals, I've always felt that this one had the strongest chance of ever becoming a reality; tough I still won't believe it until I see one on an apron, ready to taxi out for takeoff.

Its entire purpose seems to be undercut by the current question of "Should we go there at all?" versus "Should we pay extra to go faster?" It's not dissimilar from the fate of Concorde itself, after the loss of the likes of Canter Fitzgerald.

Then again, this proposal is now 16yrs-old, and will have survived two enormous market downturns, if indeed it makes it past 2020. So I guess we'll see.


Looks very much derived from existing designs of the 1980s and 1990s as far as the wing is concerned. I guess it proves those designs were valid.

If noise restrictions become stricter, this thing is dead. The increased use of virtual meetings with the virus outbreak also makes the business case of this plane more shaky.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:44 pm

Very Funny.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:54 pm

Hard to believe an 8-12 biz jet calls for a 4 wheel bogie. It seems like they'd cut back a lot of weight going to just 2 wheels bogies. Is there any usable space in the middle fuselage?

Someone83 wrote:
If it reminds me of anything it must be the B-58

That's the first thing I thought. A B58 and a DC10 having a baby and it looks pretty cool!
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:42 am

I really like the new look, but I'm a little stunned by the realization of how large the overall aircraft is compared to the cabin.

Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Looks like I'm missing something.
They basically show a complete new plane - new wing layout, new engine mount, new inlets - but want to keep the schedule and deliver in 5 years? Given that 5 years is what it took majors to reengine 737 and 320?

I'm dubious about the dates (and the market opportunity too!) but I'm not sure the benchmark should be the "majors".

Look at how long it's taking Boeing to develop spacecraft, for instance, versus SpaceX.

I'm also not surprised about the "final" design looking very different than the early designs.

Are they still using re-built 60s/70s vintage engines?


I agree we can't benchmark against the majors, who have to optimize to a very high degree for both efficiency and manufacturing cost due to close competition in their segments.

SpaceX is less of a demonstration of the differences than they like to portray themselves as, however. The Dragon took 8 years of development to achieve functional unmanned flight. The crew capsule is so different it's almost a redesign, but it did evolve from the cargo capsule and shares some hardware. In 2006, they were bragging about being so far along they were already testing the life support systems. In 2010, they were suggesting 2-3 more years before they would be ready.

They actually received their first, small NASA contract specific to the crew version in 2011, a year after a similar small contract went to Boeing, but SpaceX had been working on crew capsule development with their own funding at the time. Overall, the SpaceX and Boeing crew capsules have been proceeding on a similar pace, and both have had significant issues come up along the way. When the largest of the contracts were issued in 2014 to complete development and fund the first in-service flights, the target date was 2017. Obviously neither company came close to that.

For Aerion, you wouldn't talk me into betting money on 2024 or even on the project being completed at all, but I will hold onto a small glimmer of hope and cheer for it regardless.

cpd wrote:
The increased use of virtual meetings with the virus outbreak also makes the business case of this plane more shaky


I'm highly amused that 2 months into the COVID-19 being a global crisis, with signs it might be possible to start relaxing at least the most severe restrictions in roughly another month in some areas, and potentially for the widespread distribution of a vaccine in 12-18 months, how many different discussions turn to unquestioned assumptions about seeing not merely lingering effects, but major disruptions 5+ years from now.

I'm dealing with virtual meetings daily, and frankly, if anything, I find the pandemic to be proving just how far short virtual meetings fall compared to face-to-face. I wouldn't worry about the future state of business travel.

Revelation wrote:
Are they still using re-built 60s/70s vintage engines?


The plan for a couple years, as I understand it, is the GE Affinity: a CFM56-derived low bypass turbofan.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:18 am

TWA772LR wrote:
Hard to believe an 8-12 biz jet calls for a 4 wheel bogie. It seems like they'd cut back a lot of weight going to just 2 wheels bogies. Is there any usable space in the middle fuselage?


Perhaps they plan to use smaller wheels? Can be optimized for higher takeoff speeds.

The plan for a couple years, as I understand it, is the GE Affinity: a CFM56-derived low bypass turbofan.
So they're turning the CFM-56 BACK into the F-100?
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:19 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
While I’m dubious about the SSBJ, history has lessons. Grumman thought, if they sold a G II to every identified customer, sales would total 90 frames. They sold 254 and went to sell well over a thousand of the follow-on designs. BBD designed the Global Express on a 250 plane production run, they approaching 1,000 with the G7500. Over 3,000 Lears and 3,000 Citations at the lower end of the market. Don’t fight history.

Not quite sure of the parallel you're seeing though:
One is just a question of whether a specific OEM's iteration would take root in a well-defined sales market.
The other is a question of whether a market is so niche that it's obsolete before it's even addressed.


TWA772LR wrote:
Hard to believe an 8-12 biz jet calls for a 4 wheel bogie. It seems like they'd cut back a lot of weight going to just 2 wheels bogies.

My thoughts as well.

The only conclusion I can arrive at is that the wheel well is so constrained that 4 small wheels fit into the contour better than two larger ones, and that the designers are just sucking up the weight penalty in order to make it work. There's one benefit in that they can theoretically get a higher tire-rotation limit with a smaller arrangement; but not sure how much benefit that'd be to a comparatively smaller plane like this.

Definitely scratching my head on that one though.



iamlucky13 wrote:
I'm highly amused that 2 months into the COVID-19 being a global crisis, with signs it might be possible to start relaxing at least the most severe restrictions in roughly another month in some areas, and potentially for the widespread distribution of a vaccine in 12-18 months, how many different discussions turn to unquestioned assumptions about seeing not merely lingering effects, but major disruptions 5+ years from now.

These "assumptions" are really just an observation of a well-established trend the market has been experiencing over the last few decades. Airlines themselves have pointed it out.

Even in its "Re-Life II" and "Project Rocket" campaigns (both launched in 1999 and predicting nominally a 2007-2009, and most optimistically a 2012-2015, service window) British Airways concluded that it'd be unlikely to justify further Concorde investment due to changes in market forces, regardless of the aircrafts' age and condition.

......and THAT was before 9/11, 2008 financial crash, and Covid19; and when much of the attributing tech was in its relative infancy.

So while nobody can predict exactly what the future would be; it isn't going out on a limb to suggest that virtual tech will continue to noticeably encroach on the concept of "being there" in a post Covid-lockdown market.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:33 am

I'll legitimately bet anyone who's willing to $2000 this is not going to happen.
 
Northwest1988
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:45 am

It was originally planned to use the JT8D. Boy that would have been nice!
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:54 am

LAX772LR wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
While I’m dubious about the SSBJ, history has lessons. Grumman thought, if they sold a G II to every identified customer, sales would total 90 frames. They sold 254 and went to sell well over a thousand of the follow-on designs. BBD designed the Global Express on a 250 plane production run, they approaching 1,000 with the G7500. Over 3,000 Lears and 3,000 Citations at the lower end of the market. Don’t fight history.

Not quite sure of the parallel you're seeing though:
One is just a question of whether a specific OEM's iteration would take root in a well-defined sales market.
The other is a question of whether a market is so niche that it's obsolete before it's even addressed.


TWA772LR wrote:
Hard to believe an 8-12 biz jet calls for a 4 wheel bogie. It seems like they'd cut back a lot of weight going to just 2 wheels bogies.

My thoughts as well.

The only conclusion I can arrive at is that the wheel well is so constrained that 4 small wheels fit into the contour better than two larger ones, and that the designers are just sucking up the weight penalty in order to make it work. There's one benefit in that they can theoretically get a higher tire-rotation limit with a smaller arrangement; but not sure how much benefit that'd be to a comparatively smaller plane like this.

Definitely scratching my head on that one though.



iamlucky13 wrote:
I'm highly amused that 2 months into the COVID-19 being a global crisis, with signs it might be possible to start relaxing at least the most severe restrictions in roughly another month in some areas, and potentially for the widespread distribution of a vaccine in 12-18 months, how many different discussions turn to unquestioned assumptions about seeing not merely lingering effects, but major disruptions 5+ years from now.

These "assumptions" are really just an observation of a well-established trend the market has been experiencing over the last few decades. Airlines themselves have pointed it out.

Even in its "Re-Life II" and "Project Rocket" campaigns (both launched in 1999 and predicting nominally a 2007-2009, and most optimistically a 2012-2015, service window) British Airways concluded that it'd be unlikely to justify further Concorde investment due to changes in market forces, regardless of the aircrafts' age and condition.

......and THAT was before 9/11, 2008 financial crash, and Covid19; and when much of the attributing tech was in its relative infancy.

So while nobody can predict exactly what the future would be; it isn't going out on a limb to suggest that virtual tech will continue to noticeably encroach on the concept of "being there" in a post Covid-lockdown market.


Parallel? That every market evolves from what it started out as. Marketing and public underestimated what the real market is in fact. No one is buying jets to have a meeting about the latest sales logo, they buy them to make or influence multi-billion dollar deals.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:15 am

This seems well poised to take over the BBJ market with extreme HNWI/Fortune 50 companies who have practically endless bank accounts. I wonder if it will be under 100k pounds for the weight limits in TEB, SDL, and other executive airports tucked away in major cities around the world.

I will still bet big bucks to anyone who thinks this thing will be lifting off on a revenue flight/charter anytime in the next decade (I really hope I'm wrong because this is one cool aircraft)
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:27 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Parallel? That every market evolves from what it started out as. Marketing and public underestimated what the real market is in fact.

But again, you keep missing the point: the question here isn't "what will the market be," it's "does such a market even exist as a concept anymore."

We see the former in aviation all the time.
Rarely do we see the latter, and even more rarely is it a good thing for an aircraft positioned in such a niche.

This one firm obviously believes the answer is yes.... let's see just how many others end up agreeing, because right now, that's looking rather tenuous.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:30 am

I would just like to point out that I have been hearing about the SST BJ for about 20 years now. And it has always been 4-5 years in the future.

We will have commercial fusion reactors before we have a SST BJ.
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mapletux
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:29 am

What are the projected numbers for fuel burn, range, payload, etc. for non-supersonic flight? If they are not too different from existing business jets then it may sell as a business jet that can go supersonic when needed.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:12 am

mapletux wrote:
What are the projected numbers for fuel burn, range, payload, etc. for non-supersonic flight? If they are not too different from existing business jets then it may sell as a business jet that can go supersonic when needed.

That's been this proposal's whole shtick since day1.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:37 pm

Spacepope wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
Hard to believe an 8-12 biz jet calls for a 4 wheel bogie. It seems like they'd cut back a lot of weight going to just 2 wheels bogies. Is there any usable space in the middle fuselage?


Perhaps they plan to use smaller wheels? Can be optimized for higher takeoff speeds.

The plan for a couple years, as I understand it, is the GE Affinity: a CFM56-derived low bypass turbofan.
So they're turning the CFM-56 BACK into the F-100?

F100 is a Pratt & Whitney engine, and they are not involved with the CFM56.
It'd be more like GE is turning the CFM-56 back to the F101; or "JT8-ing" the CFM56 since no reheat is planned.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:44 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
Hard to believe an 8-12 biz jet calls for a 4 wheel bogie. It seems like they'd cut back a lot of weight going to just 2 wheels bogies. Is there any usable space in the middle fuselage?


Perhaps they plan to use smaller wheels? Can be optimized for higher takeoff speeds.

The plan for a couple years, as I understand it, is the GE Affinity: a CFM56-derived low bypass turbofan.
So they're turning the CFM-56 BACK into the F-100?

F100 is a Pratt & Whitney engine, and they are not involved with the CFM56.
It'd be more like GE is turning the CFM-56 back to the F101; or "JT8-ing" the CFM56 since no reheat is planned.


Yes the F101, that's what I was thinking, whatever they made for the B-1. I suppose a future version could be Afterburner equipped since both the F101 and JT8D were burner capable.
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KlimaBXsst
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:46 pm

Makes me wonder if the design is so “refined,” it offers the potential to be substantially “upscaled” proportionally into a larger passenger configuration model at some point.

The aerodynamic shape looks exceptional to me and they must have some incredible number expectations for such a small passenger load.
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:57 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Parallel? That every market evolves from what it started out as. Marketing and public underestimated what the real market is in fact.

But again, you keep missing the point: the question here isn't "what will the market be," it's "does such a market even exist as a concept anymore."

We see the former in aviation all the time.
Rarely do we see the latter, and even more rarely is it a good thing for an aircraft positioned in such a niche.

This one firm obviously believes the answer is yes.... let's see just how many others end up agreeing, because right now, that's looking rather tenuous.


They’ve put together an impressive team, they have solid vendors investing in the program. I’ve spoken to them at the NBAA the last two years. They believe they have a customer base and history clearly shows past projects few thought possible went on to success.

Buyers for these planes want one commodity-time. This is another leap in reducing time in travel. Deals for billions are worth it, apparently being face to face matters, too.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:07 pm

Are they sure what they want to built? There is nothing wrong with change and optimization but there is still no final design it seems? How many times have they changed the wing shape from F-104 to Concorde, to SST and back? Even the engines are still not selected? This just takes too long and is too much show while not presenting enough hard facts over all the time spent for my taste. I certainly support innovation and progress but this looks questionable.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:19 pm

The engine is facinating. The two row fan is unique.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General ... c_Affinity

With a cruise TSFC 50% higher than a standard CFM-56, this is not an economical engine except at speed.

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Makes me wonder if the design is so “refined,” it offers the potential to be substantially “upscaled” proportionally into a larger passenger configuration model at some point.

The aerodynamic shape looks exceptional to me and they must have some incredible number expectations for such a small passenger load.

This is a private business jet killer if it makes it into the fleet.

As to a larger aircraft, that requires new engines, a new cross section, new landing gear... It would be a new albeit related aircraft.

The long takeoff runway requirement limits applicability. But there will be a market. The limit is the range of 4200 to 5200nm and how fast it can travel over land. If it achieves boomless travel at Mach 1.1 to 1.2, that will spike demand.

Lightsaber
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iamlucky13
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:42 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
I'm highly amused that 2 months into the COVID-19 being a global crisis, with signs it might be possible to start relaxing at least the most severe restrictions in roughly another month in some areas, and potentially for the widespread distribution of a vaccine in 12-18 months, how many different discussions turn to unquestioned assumptions about seeing not merely lingering effects, but major disruptions 5+ years from now.

These "assumptions" are really just an observation of a well-established trend the market has been experiencing over the last few decades. Airlines themselves have pointed it out.

Even in its "Re-Life II" and "Project Rocket" campaigns (both launched in 1999 and predicting nominally a 2007-2009, and most optimistically a 2012-2015, service window) British Airways concluded that it'd be unlikely to justify further Concorde investment due to changes in market forces, regardless of the aircrafts' age and condition.


You're speaking specifically to supersonic business travel, which I've observed you're a perpetual pessimist about. That's fine. I like to hope otherwise, but unless and until someone proves a viable market, I don't have much other than conjecture to justify my hope.

The post I was responding to, however, suggested a sharp decline in business travel as a whole. That would certainly be terrible for an SST's prospects, as the business model is in part supposed to be rationalized by growth in overall business travel demand.

The trend for several decades has, as far as I understand it, been strong growth in business travel.

The assumption I was referring to was that the current air travel situation due to the pandemic lasts for years.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:54 pm

I'm willing to bet money that this will be on time for 2024. As a sidenote, I think it will be the first SST to be economically successful being squarely aimed at the business jet market where the explicit goal is to make travel faster (and to avoid those awful peasants who can only afford first class of course). Also boom supersonic will probably work as well. They also have orders and are well underway in the construction of their scale prototype.
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ILNFlyer
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:59 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
kalvado wrote:
means business case reduced even further, if not eliminated...

Hate to say it, but we were probably there before this proposal was ever made.

No aircraft, no matter how fast, will ever challenge the speed of an electronic signal.
Concorde survived because that wasn't even a factor in the '70s and '80s, and not a strong enough one in the '90s.

Come the early '00s, people had to ask themselves if paying $12,000 for a ticket was worth it when an e-signed PDF + virtual conference could accomplish 99% of anything that a supersonic day-trip could.

....and THAT, as hard as it may be to believe, was two decades go. The technology has improved by a quantum leap, and unfortunately for this proposal: so has the will to USE that tech. COVID has taken it a step further, by diminishing the value of "in person" to the point of being a liability!

**********************************
So yeah, the only real market for this thing seems to be HNWI for personal use.

But after all the Shelly Adelsons, Richard Bransons, Walton brats, and Epstein wannabes of the world have placed their orders, just how many people are going to be able/willing to slap down $100million+ just to be able to fly their underaged mistresses down to the Caribbean an hour faster?


Agreed.
 
hohd
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:00 pm

There always will be a market for the super rich, pandemic or not, oil price low or high and the trend is oil prices are trending lower for the last 5 years. Limitations for this supersonic aircraft for commercial viability could be capacity and range.
 
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:02 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The engine is facinating. The two row fan is unique.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General ... c_Affinity

With a cruise TSFC 50% higher than a standard CFM-56, this is not an economical engine except at speed.

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Makes me wonder if the design is so “refined,” it offers the potential to be substantially “upscaled” proportionally into a larger passenger configuration model at some point.

The aerodynamic shape looks exceptional to me and they must have some incredible number expectations for such a small passenger load.

This is a private business jet killer if it makes it into the fleet.

As to a larger aircraft, that requires new engines, a new cross section, new landing gear... It would be a new albeit related aircraft.

The long takeoff runway requirement limits applicability. But there will be a market. The limit is the range of 4200 to 5200nm and how fast it can travel over land. If it achieves boomless travel at Mach 1.1 to 1.2, that will spike demand.

Lightsaber


Two comments,

Field performance might be a problem. If it can’t use KTEB, KASE, KSDL, EGGW, LFMN, PHOG, places that owners use to avoid the airline terminals, it’ll be a hard sell. Lots of owners want to go to their private ranch, arrive right near their factory or at the downtown airport. Lots of opportunities for regulatory mischief, too.

Second, if the owner needs to make frequent tech stops, it’ll be a hurdle for sales. The appeal of the G650 and G7500 is non-stop, especially legs like NYC-PEK or KLAX-YSSY. Stops are hated and I don’t always get the heartburn, but even a one hour turns are hated.

Conventional wisdom is bizjets are sold on these two characteristics. I’m not convinced it’s a winner, but they are.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:30 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Second, if the owner needs to make frequent tech stops, it’ll be a hurdle for sales. The appeal of the G650 and G7500 is non-stop, especially legs like NYC-PEK or KLAX-YSSY. Stops are hated and I don’t always get the heartburn, but even a one hour turns are hated.

I think the new, larger wing came when they realised that they need a lot more fuel for an appealing range. More wing area also helps with runway performance. The original stubby wing is great for supersonic performance but I think they would've needed drop tanks to get the range many customers want nowadays.

ULH range like LAX-SYD or NYC-PEK probably isn't really needed but at least some TPAC capability like LAX-NRT wouldn't hurt either.
 
LightningZ71
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:54 pm

I do think that there is a solid issue with the runway length requirements limiting it's desirability for it's longest range legs. Being significantly limited in airport choice will be a hit, as will the requiremofor tech stops for longer runs. Some of the fastest long range biz jets can cruise at .9+, meaning that this has, at best, a .5 Mach advantage over those jets. If you have to blow over an hour for descent from altitude, landing, fueling, take off and climb, you get maybe a one hour advantage on the longest of missions, at the cost of higher upkeep, limited airport choice, and likely other unknown costs.

For intermediate range runs, the speed advantage is also shrunk because it has less chance to outrun it's competition. If someone were to have come up with a bizjet that could cruise at Mach 1.2, but had 2000 miles more range and could use more airports, it would kill this on very long over the pond runs and also kill it for shorter runs by having more airport flexibility. At that lower speed, it could have used more efficient engines and a higher lift wing layout.

It just seems to be in an ugly position in the market and is specifically optimized for runs from the northeast US to Europe and back.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Aerion moves forward with supersonic AS2 for 2024, unveils new final design

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:46 pm

Noshow wrote:
Are they sure what they want to built? There is nothing wrong with change and optimization but there is still no final design it seems? How many times have they changed the wing shape from F-104 to Concorde, to SST and back?

Precisely once, very recently, from the F-104-esque supersonic natural laminar flow wing, to the cranked-arrow planform, for the reasons discussed in the article posted in the opening post of this thread.

Noshow wrote:
Even the engines are still not selected?

As per the article in the opening post of this thread, the engine has been selected for some time: the General Electric Affinity, which was launched in 2017 and is based on the F110, a development of the F101 which has the same core as the CFM56. Nacelles will be provided by Safran.

Noshow wrote:
This just takes too long and is too much show while not presenting enough hard facts over all the time spent for my taste. I certainly support innovation and progress but this looks questionable.

Given you’ve missed the hard facts about the wing and the engine in your post, is it possible you’ve either not followed this closely enough, or you’re confusing it with other SST proposals such as the Boom Overture, the Spike Aerospace S-512, and the Supersonic Aerospace International Quiet SST? Boom seems serious with a proof-of-concept aircraft under construction, Spike is the newest of the bunch and has been pushing back its timelines, and SAI seems to have ground to a halt.

If you haven’t already read it, I would recommend reading Guy Norris’s excellent article in Aviation Week which was linked in the opening post of this thread. It will bring you up to date on where the Aerion project stands: https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/aeri ... jet-design

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