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enilria
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DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:41 pm

A video I saw clarified that Delta was losing $100m per day at the end of March. I wonder where they are now? $50m? $25m?

https://www.thestreet.com/video/delta-i ... lion-a-day
 
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NWAESC
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:44 pm

Roughly $50M/day per Bastain on CNBC earlier today.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
LCDFlight
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:50 pm

Delta is a $40B/ year company. So their basic cost structure is $100M/day when they run a full schedule. If their demand fell 90%... math becomes real tough.
 
tphuang
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:05 pm

enilria wrote:
A video I saw clarified that Delta was losing $100m per day at the end of March. I wonder where they are now? $50m? $25m?

https://www.thestreet.com/video/delta-i ... lion-a-day


he said $50 million by end of June. A week ago, they were in the $60 to 70 million range. April cuts are not as severe as May/June cuts, so I think the burn rate will be in this range until May at least and then it should drop a little bit. Also, it helps that cash refund should at some point be offset or exceeded by bookings. My guess is $65 to 70 million per day in April, maybe $55 to 60 million a day in May and then $50 to 60 million a day in June.
 
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usdcaguy
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:34 pm

Terrible numbers. Hard to believe a $1.5B monthly loss is the target. I don't see the airlines getting past September without more money from the government. Layoffs are a given. If I were Bastian, I would be having each department go through their contracts to determine what they can cancel at this point. Of course, that won't be enough. You have to wonder if Ch. 11 will be on the table again so they can renegotiate their agreements to match the needs of a smaller airline and then build up once the pandemic is over.
 
0newair0
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:49 pm

tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
A video I saw clarified that Delta was losing $100m per day at the end of March. I wonder where they are now? $50m? $25m?

https://www.thestreet.com/video/delta-i ... lion-a-day


he said $50 million by end of June. A week ago, they were in the $60 to 70 million range. April cuts are not as severe as May/June cuts, so I think the burn rate will be in this range until May at least and then it should drop a little bit. Also, it helps that cash refund should at some point be offset or exceeded by bookings. My guess is $65 to 70 million per day in April, maybe $55 to 60 million a day in May and then $50 to 60 million a day in June.


Back half of April is the May schedule. Jun schedule will have less cuts than May. Part of cash burn reduction is based on assumption revenue will start to slowly come back.
That's not how this works! That's not how any of this works!
 
panamair
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
A video I saw clarified that Delta was losing $100m per day at the end of March. I wonder where they are now? $50m? $25m?

https://www.thestreet.com/video/delta-i ... lion-a-day


he said $50 million by end of June. A week ago, they were in the $60 to 70 million range. April cuts are not as severe as May/June cuts, so I think the burn rate will be in this range until May at least and then it should drop a little bit. Also, it helps that cash refund should at some point be offset or exceeded by bookings. My guess is $65 to 70 million per day in April, maybe $55 to 60 million a day in May and then $50 to 60 million a day in June.


On the earnings call today, they said that they should be hitting the $50m a day mark starting in May. They also said they are starting to see cash sales equal refunds now, so coming out of negative net sales as refunds ease up.
Last edited by panamair on Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
0newair0
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:55 pm

usdcaguy wrote:
Terrible numbers. Hard to believe a $1.5B monthly loss is the target. I don't see the airlines getting past September without more money from the government. Layoffs are a given. If I were Bastian, I would be having each department go through their contracts to determine what they can cancel at this point. Of course, that won't be enough. You have to wonder if Ch. 11 will be on the table again so they can renegotiate their agreements to match the needs of a smaller airline and then build up once the pandemic is over.


The experience reduction exercises were already done. Delta has $10 billion in liquidity and this could get pushed up to $15 billion. Layoffs will happen after September 30 as needed, but none are currently planned because the truth is no one knows what is going to happen 6 months from now. Everyone's having hard enough time figuring out what's going on 6 days from now.
That's not how this works! That's not how any of this works!
 
Lootess
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:56 pm

0newair0 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
A video I saw clarified that Delta was losing $100m per day at the end of March. I wonder where they are now? $50m? $25m?

https://www.thestreet.com/video/delta-i ... lion-a-day


he said $50 million by end of June. A week ago, they were in the $60 to 70 million range. April cuts are not as severe as May/June cuts, so I think the burn rate will be in this range until May at least and then it should drop a little bit. Also, it helps that cash refund should at some point be offset or exceeded by bookings. My guess is $65 to 70 million per day in April, maybe $55 to 60 million a day in May and then $50 to 60 million a day in June.


Back half of April is the May schedule. Jun schedule will have less cuts than May. Part of cash burn reduction is based on assumption revenue will start to slowly come back.


Well June hasn't been fully loaded, and with 250 more aircraft going to be parked soon, the math is simple.

It's not shrinking to profitability, it's shrinking to weather the storm.
 
tphuang
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:04 pm

0newair0 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
A video I saw clarified that Delta was losing $100m per day at the end of March. I wonder where they are now? $50m? $25m?

https://www.thestreet.com/video/delta-i ... lion-a-day


he said $50 million by end of June. A week ago, they were in the $60 to 70 million range. April cuts are not as severe as May/June cuts, so I think the burn rate will be in this range until May at least and then it should drop a little bit. Also, it helps that cash refund should at some point be offset or exceeded by bookings. My guess is $65 to 70 million per day in April, maybe $55 to 60 million a day in May and then $50 to 60 million a day in June.


Back half of April is the May schedule. Jun schedule will have less cuts than May. Part of cash burn reduction is based on assumption revenue will start to slowly come back.

That's fair. Cash burn is not just cost - revenues, but also cash refund from cancellations. So second half of April will have more losses even if the cuts are as deep as May.

The problem is that when there is a little more demand in the market (airlines are saying it's minimal still) and airlines schedule a few more flights, you don't burn any less cash. That's why I don't forsee DL actually running more flights in June than May. You don't cut 50% of your cost with as much fixed costs as DL unless you cut out vast majority of capex and basically stop flying. The reason they are having 50% less cost is because they cut 90% of schedule.
 
0newair0
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:06 pm

Lootess wrote:
0newair0 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

he said $50 million by end of June. A week ago, they were in the $60 to 70 million range. April cuts are not as severe as May/June cuts, so I think the burn rate will be in this range until May at least and then it should drop a little bit. Also, it helps that cash refund should at some point be offset or exceeded by bookings. My guess is $65 to 70 million per day in April, maybe $55 to 60 million a day in May and then $50 to 60 million a day in June.


Back half of April is the May schedule. Jun schedule will have less cuts than May. Part of cash burn reduction is based on assumption revenue will start to slowly come back.


Well June hasn't been fully loaded, and with 250 more aircraft going to be parked soon, the math is simple.

It's not shrinking to profitability, it's shrinking to weather the storm.
The information I offered has nothing to do with the current state of the published schedule.
That's not how this works! That's not how any of this works!
 
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NWAESC
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:59 pm

0newair0 wrote:
...because the truth is no one knows what is going to happen 6 months from now. Everyone's having hard enough time figuring out what's going on 6 days from now.


+1

At this point, I’d just like to be out of fire drill mode...
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
B757Forever
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:51 pm

NWAESC wrote:
0newair0 wrote:
...because the truth is no one knows what is going to happen 6 months from now. Everyone's having hard enough time figuring out what's going on 6 days from now.


+1

At this point, I’d just like to be out of fire drill mode...



I hear ya NWAESC. That's why I took an April LOA. I might extend it to include May also. I'm hoping the picture may be a little less fuzzy for my return to work in June...
The Rolls Royce Dart. Noise = Shaft Horsepower.
 
catiii
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:29 am

usdcaguy wrote:
I don't see the airlines getting past September without more money from the government. Layoffs are a given. If I were Bastian, I would be having each department go through their contracts to determine what they can cancel at this point.


Any additional federal funding will be tied to not laying off employees. Every CEO, CFO, FP&A, etc team at every carrier has already gone through every contract to change payment terms, reduce spending, etc.
 
geologyrocks
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:25 am

Has any airline considered running multi-stop flights? Is this a refund avoidment issue? If you have three flights all leaving at the same time to go to MLU, AEX, and LFT...could you just run 1 of them to all 3?
 
0newair0
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:30 am

geologyrocks wrote:
Has any airline considered running multi-stop flights? Is this a refund avoidment issue? If you have three flights all leaving at the same time to go to MLU, AEX, and LFT...could you just run 1 of them to all 3?
Yes, Alaska is doing this.
That's not how this works! That's not how any of this works!
 
MIflyer12
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:43 am

There were lots of remarks regarding reductions in cash burn, liquidity moves, unencumbered assets and what not on today's earnings call. Grab the audio or the transcript.

https://ir.delta.com/home/default.aspx
 
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WassbiKhalifa
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:54 am

I started with DL in 1984. Running flights that went ATL-MOB-SHV-MLU-DFW were the norm back then. It makes a lot of sense to run those types of flights again in my opinion.
 
panamair
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:44 am

This thread should probably be consolidated with this one:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1444999
since they both are discussing DL’s Q1 performance
 
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usdcaguy
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:03 pm

WassbiKhalifa wrote:
I started with DL in 1984. Running flights that went ATL-MOB-SHV-MLU-DFW were the norm back then. It makes a lot of sense to run those types of flights again in my opinion.


Interesting idea. It would have the added affect of giving people in places like MOB flights to other small cities. But the way our country works now is that most business is in the top 20 cities like NY, LA, Houston, Chicago, Atlanta, etc., so the airlines now offer a zillion competitive services between those cities, so they can't really add three stops to small places while hoping to attract passengers. They could, however, add tags like TUL-OKC to flights like ATL-TUL. etc., which was done in the past. The demand for the shorter tags, however, is likely very low given the higher speed limits we have now on the road.
 
wv399
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:52 pm

geologyrocks wrote:
Has any airline considered running multi-stop flights? Is this a refund avoidment issue? If you have three flights all leaving at the same time to go to MLU, AEX, and LFT...could you just run 1 of them to all 3?



Alaska and JetBlue have added multi-stop flights.
 
BravoOne
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Re: DL Was Losing $100m/Day in Late March

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:40 pm

Current schedule projections shows 3000 pilots are in excess. Working with alpa to determine if a early out program is feeaseable. Obviously 3000 off the top would be preferable but no one beleieves that will happen. Furlough notices to go out around July 1st and be effective in Sept. Flying not projected to return to present levels until Dec. 2022. All MD88/MD90's parked by next week.

Looking hard a 767 & 777 sell offs. 737MAX is a real rumor based on getting rid of the 717.

This information comes from an internal meeting with senior Line Check Airman which is a common Delta method of information dissemination for the pilot group. Sometimes spot on, and other times not so accurate.

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