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CraigAnderson
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Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:50 am

Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sources say Cathay Pacific is looking to shake up its Boeing order book, with a pushback on the delivery schedule of the already-delayed 777-9 and the conversion of some or even all orders to the smaller and cheaper 787-10.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... boeing-787
 
raylee67
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:09 am

That would be a creative move. And not a bad one. The current 777-300ERs can be replaced fully by A350-900 and -1000, meaning there will be more orders of those eventually in the next 10 years, as the 77Ws get older.

But then it eliminates the question of what to do with the A330-300s. Many of them are quite old and need replacements soon. 787-10 does not have the range to cover many of the current 77W routes, yet it is basically a direct replacement of the A333.

So the eventual fleet can become a mix of 787-10, A350-900, A350-1000.

It's definitely bad news for A330NEOs. I am sure Airbus is seeing CX as a main target customer for the model.
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Antaras
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:23 am

Nice move for both Boeing and Cathay. At least CX needs something to relace its aging A330s on intra-Asia routes.
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Noshow
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:25 am

Bad for the X. LH not sure and able to afford some anymore. CX downsizing. Who will need them? EK?
 
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Antaras
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:29 am

I wonder if CX wants the -8/-9 as it should need something close to its A332/333
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ZK-NBT
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:36 am

Antaras wrote:
I wonder if CX wants the -8/-9 as it should need something close to its A332/333


CX doesn’t have A332s, the 781 is a good A333 replacement within Asia, they could use it to replace the 773s aswell, those 773s do seat 438, I would think a 2 class 781 could seat 350/360 for regional use, maybe a few more.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:39 am

Makes sense if they don't want the 777X any longer. That way Boeing gets to lessen the blow a little by booking 787 orders. The downgrade in comfort in Y at CX will be quite steep if they do swap this order. From having a 9-abreast Y in the 777 to the A350, to 10-abreast Y in the 777 to the 787. To imagine the A350 would be the most comfortable Y flight at CX when they used to be one of the few to actually offer reasonable experience is some change in a relatively short time.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:47 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Antaras wrote:
I wonder if CX wants the -8/-9 as it should need something close to its A332/333


CX doesn’t have A332s, the 781 is a good A333 replacement within Asia, they could use it to replace the 773s aswell, those 773s do seat 438, I would think a 2 class 781 could seat 350/360 for regional use, maybe a few more.

Nice.
VN configures its 78X C24Y343 (367) for its regional ops. We could see CX follow that same config.
==============================================================================
I am wondering about CX's engine choice. Sure that CX will choose RR, however it is a troublesome choice and CX maybe thinking 'bout that.
Maybe the problem would be fixed at the moment CX receiving thse airframes, or CX just swap its GE9X order to GEnx-1B as if it has ordered the engines with GE.
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flee
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:54 am

enzo011 wrote:
Makes sense if they don't want the 777X any longer. That way Boeing gets to lessen the blow a little by booking 787 orders. The downgrade in comfort in Y at CX will be quite steep if they do swap this order. From having a 9-abreast Y in the 777 to the A350, to 10-abreast Y in the 777 to the 787. To imagine the A350 would be the most comfortable Y flight at CX when they used to be one of the few to actually offer reasonable experience is some change in a relatively short time.

Wasn't the B777-9 originally due to replace CX's 4-class 77Ws? If that is the case, and CX's plans for a 4 class plane are still intact, the A350-1000 should be used instead. The B787-10 can then be used as a regional aircraft replacing the older A333s - about 10 are over 16 years old.
 
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:16 am

I would have thought a few more 747-8Fs would have been their preferred conversion.
 
Aither
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:24 am

CX also use some of the long haul fleet for regional routes.
The dedicated widebody fleet for regional routes is increasingly being challenged. In particular if we see less premium cabins on long haul.
So we should expect many of the large A350s to fly regional markets. This makes the 787-10 in a difficult position : it may be too big for most of the markets the A350s won't fly to. I'm not sure there would be a big number of 787-10 needed.
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chonetsao
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:38 am

flee wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
Makes sense if they don't want the 777X any longer. That way Boeing gets to lessen the blow a little by booking 787 orders. The downgrade in comfort in Y at CX will be quite steep if they do swap this order. From having a 9-abreast Y in the 777 to the A350, to 10-abreast Y in the 777 to the 787. To imagine the A350 would be the most comfortable Y flight at CX when they used to be one of the few to actually offer reasonable experience is some change in a relatively short time.

Wasn't the B777-9 originally due to replace CX's 4-class 77Ws? If that is the case, and CX's plans for a 4 class plane are still intact, the A350-1000 should be used instead. The B787-10 can then be used as a regional aircraft replacing the older A333s - about 10 are over 16 years old.


Yes that is correct.

CX can just keep its youngest B777-300ER much longer. Also, after the crisis, there will be a handful of cheap B777-300ER available. Also think this way, currently there are quite a few B777-300ER under CX is leased with lease will terminate soon. Leasing company will come up with great deals to entice CX to continue the lease or sell back at a steep discount. Let us face it, the demand for B777-300ER after the crisis will be very low for a while.

Personally I think B777-300ER still have a place in CX's fleet due to its first class seating, cargo ability and longevity. Although CX may reduce the number of the B777-300ER in its fleet, which is evitable.
 
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:44 am

Antaras wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Antaras wrote:
I wonder if CX wants the -8/-9 as it should need something close to its A332/333


CX doesn’t have A332s, the 781 is a good A333 replacement within Asia, they could use it to replace the 773s aswell, those 773s do seat 438, I would think a 2 class 781 could seat 350/360 for regional use, maybe a few more.

Nice.
VN configures its 78X C24Y343 (367) for its regional ops. We could see CX follow that same config.
==============================================================================
I am wondering about CX's engine choice. Sure that CX will choose RR, however it is a troublesome choice and CX maybe thinking 'bout that.
Maybe the problem would be fixed at the moment CX receiving thse airframes, or CX just swap its GE9X order to GEnx-1B as if it has ordered the engines with GE.


I don't know about engine choice. The bad PR on RR B787 engine problem may make CX seek other choices.

For configuration, CX is likely to pursue C42Y29X for its regional flights. CX has been premium heavy and it is likely to continue.

CX is likely to transfer its A333 to Dragonair or retire them.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:04 am

Just re-reading through the Executive Traveller article, it states:
“ However, the size and cost of the 777-9 may no longer fit Cathay Pacific, with the airline reportedly now casting its eye over the smaller and cheaper Boeing 787-10.”

Aero manufacturers post “list prices” and I think it is well known the actual price you pay is how well you negotiate a deal and secure a damn good discount. Maybe I am misreading this or perhaps misinterpreting this but I get the impression that Boeing was “less pencil sharp” with the 777X then they have been with the 787. By which I mean the discounts on the 777X were much lower.

Is it my misunderstanding or anyone else perceive this?
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AA737-823
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:05 am

chonetsao wrote:
I don't know about engine choice. The bad PR on RR B787 engine problem may make CX seek other choices.


Well, considering that this is a CONVERSION of a 777X order, which was guaranteed to have GE engines, I think it's a no-brainer that this one will go to GE.
Plus Cathay has an existing relationship with GE from the 77W fleet, so it's not like this would be starting from ground zero for them.
And frankly, they'd be insane to order RR engines on a 787 at this point. In my "humble" opinion!
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:09 am

Aither wrote:
CX also use some of the long haul fleet for regional routes.
The dedicated widebody fleet for regional routes is increasingly being challenged. In particular if we see less premium cabins on long haul.
So we should expect many of the large A350s to fly regional markets. This makes the 787-10 in a difficult position : it may be too big for most of the markets the A350s won't fly to. I'm not sure there would be a big number of 787-10 needed.


Some yes, this is common practice among many airlines utilising long haul aircraft on short haul routes.

CX have 17 773s seating 438 for regional use, the 781 won’t seat that many, do they need it to? The 77W reconfigured I believe is considered to heavy in a regional configuration, while the 3 class 77W seats 368. The 351 seats 334.

The regional A333s seat 293 or 317. You could have 2 781 configurations, 1 around 300 seats more J seating and another with 360 or so with more Y seating.
 
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:17 am

AA737-823 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
I don't know about engine choice. The bad PR on RR B787 engine problem may make CX seek other choices.


Well, considering that this is a CONVERSION of a 777X order, which was guaranteed to have GE engines, I think it's a no-brainer that this one will go to GE.
Plus Cathay has an existing relationship with GE from the 77W fleet, so it's not like this would be starting from ground zero for them.
And frankly, they'd be insane to order RR engines on a 787 at this point. In my "humble" opinion!

CX ordered the 777X doesn't mean that CX ordered the GE engines. Those are independent contracts.
However, I do agree that RR can't be a worse choice for CX.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:25 am

Antaras wrote:
AA737-823 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
I don't know about engine choice. The bad PR on RR B787 engine problem may make CX seek other choices.


Well, considering that this is a CONVERSION of a 777X order, which was guaranteed to have GE engines, I think it's a no-brainer that this one will go to GE.
Plus Cathay has an existing relationship with GE from the 77W fleet, so it's not like this would be starting from ground zero for them.
And frankly, they'd be insane to order RR engines on a 787 at this point. In my "humble" opinion!

CX ordered the 777X doesn't mean that CX ordered the GE engines. Those are independent contracts.
However, I do agree that RR can't be a worse choice for CX.


Surely they firmed up the engines, they were meant to receive the first aircraft in 2021, it’s not like they had a choice and they ordered the 779 several years ago.
 
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:30 am

Noshow wrote:
Bad for the X. LH not sure and able to afford some anymore. CX downsizing. Who will need them? EK?


Chinese Airlines possibly? Probably the Japanese will pick a few up for their ultra-dense Domestic market/Honolulu flights.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:37 am

Insertnamehere wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Bad for the X. LH not sure and able to afford some anymore. CX downsizing. Who will need them? EK?


Chinese Airlines possibly? Probably the Japanese will pick a few up for their ultra-dense Domestic market/Honolulu flights.


ANA have ordered the 779 to replace some of the long haul 77Ws. You won’t see them on domestic to big and heavy, 787 territory where widebody capacity is needed, there are still older 777s on domestic, likely replaced by more 787s.

JAL ordered the A350 of which there are some A359s in a domestic configuration, no chance for any 77X there.
 
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:48 am

enzo011 wrote:
Makes sense if they don't want the 777X any longer. That way Boeing gets to lessen the blow a little by booking 787 orders. The downgrade in comfort in Y at CX will be quite steep if they do swap this order. From having a 9-abreast Y in the 777 to the A350, to 10-abreast Y in the 777 to the 787. To imagine the A350 would be the most comfortable Y flight at CX when they used to be one of the few to actually offer reasonable experience is some change in a relatively short time.

They don't have 9-abreast Y in 777 anymore.

Michael
 
Opus99
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:52 am

The 777X already had a steep hill to climb. Covid-19 has made that hill even steeper, It certainly not looking great but i won't conclude till it (eventually) enters service and at that point if airlines don't see its value or it doesn't perform to expectation of airlines (...at this point it has to surpass their expectations) then thats a wrap.

But on the topic, the switch makes sense and is a risk averse bet. Good on CX
 
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:01 am

Honestly in ten years or so I wouldn't be surprised if there are only four commercial aircraft types in the sky: Boeing Widebody, Boeing Narrowbody, Airbus Widebody, Airbus Narrowbody. Hell, depending on how bad the depression is I would only be mildly shocked to see Boeing consolidate to only producing 787s and Airbus to only producing A320s. (Not that I actually expect this to happen) It feels like plane spotting becomes a more boring hobby every year.
 
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:21 am

Aither wrote:
CX also use some of the long haul fleet for regional routes.
The dedicated widebody fleet for regional routes is increasingly being challenged. In particular if we see less premium cabins on long haul.
So we should expect many of the large A350s to fly regional markets. This makes the 787-10 in a difficult position : it may be too big for most of the markets the A350s won't fly to. I'm not sure there would be a big number of 787-10 needed.


Singapore Airlines makes use of both the A350-900 and 787-10 on its regional network. There's no reason why Cathay couldn't replicate that. The 787-10 isn't that much bigger than the A330-300 anyway, so flying the A350-900 and 787-10 on the regional flights shouldn't be too different from the A350-900 and A330-300. If they need to cut capacity in a hurry, they can always use the 787-10 to replace the 777-300A instead of the A330-300.

Cathay has Cathay Dragon to cater to markets that require smaller aircraft. They fly the A320 and A321 and will receive the first A321neo this year.


speedbird52 wrote:
Hell, depending on how bad the depression is I would only be mildly shocked to see Boeing consolidate to only producing 787s and Airbus to only producing A320s.


There is no way Airbus would stop producing the A350 this side of 2030.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:27 am

It looks like CX might go from - broadly - Airbus for regional (a330) / Boeing for long haul (777) to - broadly -Boeing for regional (781)/ Airbus for long haul (a350).

The only thing time doesn't change is change itself...
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:05 am

Antaras wrote:
I wonder if CX wants the -8/-9 as it should need something close to its A332/333


I think CX will also choose 789 if they decide to buy 78X. They need more long-haul destinations after the expansion of HKG after 2024, when the aviation market should resume its pre-pandemic situations.
 
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:28 am

enzo011 wrote:
Makes sense if they don't want the 777X any longer. That way Boeing gets to lessen the blow a little by booking 787 orders. The downgrade in comfort in Y at CX will be quite steep if they do swap this order. From having a 9-abreast Y in the 777 to the A350, to 10-abreast Y in the 777 to the 787. To imagine the A350 would be the most comfortable Y flight at CX when they used to be one of the few to actually offer reasonable experience is some change in a relatively short time.


We are going to see more of these decisions. While your point on Y is valid I just don't see the next several years as being anything other than trying to get as much from as little as possible. Air travel is going back to the days of being a luxury form of travel. Airlines will be focusing on the Business Customers they can keep. The vast majority of carriers that avoid liquidation over the next 18m will downsize to a point we could not have imagined 6m ago. The days of expanding simply to participate in a race to the bottom in fares are gone for as far as I can see. Even today we can only speculate just how much further the contraction will continue. The days of the quick cheap flight across the pond are gone. Period.

PAX in Y class will be secondary for many years to come.
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:35 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Just re-reading through the Executive Traveller article, it states:
“ However, the size and cost of the 777-9 may no longer fit Cathay Pacific, with the airline reportedly now casting its eye over the smaller and cheaper Boeing 787-10.”

Aero manufacturers post “list prices” and I think it is well known the actual price you pay is how well you negotiate a deal and secure a damn good discount. Maybe I am misreading this or perhaps misinterpreting this but I get the impression that Boeing was “less pencil sharp” with the 777X then they have been with the 787. By which I mean the discounts on the 777X were much lower.

Is it my misunderstanding or anyone else perceive this?


For a customer like CX, I would expect the manufacturer to offer very similar levels of discount across their entire portfolio. Even if we assume 50% discount off list prices, that would leave a 787-10 at $169 million vs 777-9 at $221 million. Assuming a one-for-one conversion of the 21 frames, that would save CX over $1 billion. Higher discounts will obviously reduce the difference, but it's still a significant saving in difficult times.
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:50 am

Antaras wrote:
AA737-823 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
I don't know about engine choice. The bad PR on RR B787 engine problem may make CX seek other choices.


Well, considering that this is a CONVERSION of a 777X order, which was guaranteed to have GE engines, I think it's a no-brainer that this one will go to GE.
Plus Cathay has an existing relationship with GE from the 77W fleet, so it's not like this would be starting from ground zero for them.
And frankly, they'd be insane to order RR engines on a 787 at this point. In my "humble" opinion!

CX ordered the 777X doesn't mean that CX ordered the GE engines. Those are independent contracts.
However, I do agree that RR can't be a worse choice for CX.


The 777-9 like the 77W are exclusively powered by GE engines.
 
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:01 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Antaras wrote:
AA737-823 wrote:

Well, considering that this is a CONVERSION of a 777X order, which was guaranteed to have GE engines, I think it's a no-brainer that this one will go to GE.
Plus Cathay has an existing relationship with GE from the 77W fleet, so it's not like this would be starting from ground zero for them.
And frankly, they'd be insane to order RR engines on a 787 at this point. In my "humble" opinion!

CX ordered the 777X doesn't mean that CX ordered the GE engines. Those are independent contracts.
However, I do agree that RR can't be a worse choice for CX.


The 777-9 like the 77W are exclusively powered by GE engines.

But it still requires an independent order for the aircraft. Carriers have to sign an order with the engine maker. I remember that VN had to independently order the engines with RR for its A359s, not a "combined order" with Airbus.

Boeing, as well as Airbus, do not sell the engines with the airframes, even tho there is only one choice.
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jfk777
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:07 pm

Antaras wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Antaras wrote:
CX ordered the 777X doesn't mean that CX ordered the GE engines. Those are independent contracts.
However, I do agree that RR can't be a worse choice for CX.


The 777-9 like the 77W are exclusively powered by GE engines.

But it still requires an independent order for the aircraft. Carriers have to sign an order with the engine maker. I remember that VN had to independently order the engines with RR for its A359s, not a "combined order" with Airbus.

Boeing, as well as Airbus, do not sell the engines with the airframes, even tho there is only one choice.


Isn't your distinction academic and largely moot ? One contract with Boeing or two with Boeing and GE, what is the difference ? More work for lawyers ?
 
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:08 pm

Antaras wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Antaras wrote:
CX ordered the 777X doesn't mean that CX ordered the GE engines. Those are independent contracts.
However, I do agree that RR can't be a worse choice for CX.


The 777-9 like the 77W are exclusively powered by GE engines.

But it still requires an independent order for the aircraft. Carriers have to sign an order with the engine maker. I remember that VN had to independently order the engines with RR for its A359s, not a "combined order" with Airbus.

Boeing, as well as Airbus, do not sell the engines with the airframes, even tho there is only one choice.

It doesn’t really matter if the engine order is independent, in fact that can make things harder for CX. CX has a contract for GE for GE90Xs. If they dump the 777X they have no use for those engines...but they still have a signed contract with GE for them. GE has no incentive to just let CX freely walk away from their contract, but they may be willing to let CX convert the contract to GEnx’s if CX decides to convert their Boeing order to 787s.

Otherwise CX may have to pay GE cancellation penalties.
 
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par13del
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:22 pm

So the issue is what, CX ordered the 777X which only comes with one engine but they never ordered an engine for a/c to be delivered in 2021?
Ok, I'm lost but ok.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:23 pm

Polot wrote:
It doesn’t really matter if the engine order is independent, in fact that can make things harder for CX.


It might make things easier - IF they were separate contracts and the contract with GE had yet been completed yet. Given the lack of engine choice on 777X, it might mean that engine contracts can proceed at a much slower pace than the order for frames. I don't know, just spitballing. I guess we'll find out in the fullness of time.
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Reddevil556
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:39 pm

AA737-823 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
I don't know about engine choice. The bad PR on RR B787 engine problem may make CX seek other choices.


Well, considering that this is a CONVERSION of a 777X order, which was guaranteed to have GE engines, I think it's a no-brainer that this one will go to GE.
Plus Cathay has an existing relationship with GE from the 77W fleet, so it's not like this would be starting from ground zero for them.
And frankly, they'd be insane to order RR engines on a 787 at this point. In my "humble" opinion!


Another thing to consider is commonality with the GE engines on the 748F. CX could be sitting with all GE engines in Boeing planes and RR on all Airbus WB.
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
Arion640
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:55 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
Honestly in ten years or so I wouldn't be surprised if there are only four commercial aircraft types in the sky: Boeing Widebody, Boeing Narrowbody, Airbus Widebody, Airbus Narrowbody. Hell, depending on how bad the depression is I would only be mildly shocked to see Boeing consolidate to only producing 787s and Airbus to only producing A320s. (Not that I actually expect this to happen) It feels like plane spotting becomes a more boring hobby every year.


Boeing:

737MAX or successor
787-9/10

Airbus
A220
A320Neo and A321neo variants
A350-900/1000
 
StTim
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:58 pm

GE must be starting to be concerned with the market for the 777X engines. We know they have had technical difficulties meaning development costs will be above expectations and now demand is falling away.
 
UnMAXed
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:10 pm

Taking into account EY's desire to scrap its entire order,
LH wish to swap it for other aircraft,
the 10 unidentified orders (what is it now, 7-8 years that they are listed as such?)
EK's desire to cancel even more of them and now the news from CX seems like just over 200 examples have a good chance of being delivered.
Looks like that the 777X program will be an even bigger financial failure for BCA than the 747-8.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:38 pm

par13del wrote:
So the issue is what, CX ordered the 777X which only comes with one engine but they never ordered an engine for a/c to be delivered in 2021?
Ok, I'm lost but ok.

The first airframe would be delivered in 2021 doesn't mean that CX had already ordered the engines for those airframes in 2020.
Vietnam Airlines signed an MoU for 10 pairs of Trent XWB in 6 September 2016: https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press-releases/2016/06-09-2016-rr-welcomes-vietnam-airlines-order-10a350xwb-aircraft.aspx
VN's first owned-A359 [MSN 056] was delivered in 29 October 2016. just nearly 2 months after the MoU (not even the order, which was signed weeks later).

Very likely that CX didn't finish its order of GE9X. However if it did then it may easily convert those GE9X to the GEnx-2B for the 748F, or just basically choose the GEnx-1B for the 787s
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Speedalive
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:11 pm

An earlier article from a few days ago on this topic: https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/04/18/cathay-pacifics-fleet-puzzle-swap-777x-for-787-dreamliners/#3ffc77cc14f5

One of the quotes I found interesting is this:
The upper end of Cathay’s regional fleet is the original 777-300 (non-ER) variant. “We’ve got 438 seats in them,” then-chairman John Slosar told the Wings Club last May. “They’re fantastic people movers on big, thick Asia routes.”

Boeing no longer sells the -300. Cathay recently obtained more by taking five ex-Emirates units. They replaced Cathay’s 777-200s, providing seat and cargo growth at constrained Asian airports.

“There were only about 50 of them built, and if we could we would probably buy all 50,” Slosar said of the -300.


This was pre-Covid of course. I imagine it would be in CX’s best interest to adjust their fleet to lower demand now, so the 78X makes sense for the regional product. It would be a modest upgrade from the 333 and a good way to adjust to lower demand by replacing the older 773’s one to one. If they’re not interested in increasing capacity on 333 routes, I suppose they could always purchase a mix of 789’s and 78X’s. It makes the most sense to go with GE as well. They have tons of experience with GE already with 747-8F’s and 77W’s and the Trent 1000 already has a tarnished reputation. In fact, the GENX-2B67 on the 747-8F is practically the same as the GENX-1B76/78 used on the 78X aside from the bleedless design on the 87.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:19 pm

Speedalive wrote:
An earlier article from a few days ago on this topic: https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/04/18/cathay-pacifics-fleet-puzzle-swap-777x-for-787-dreamliners/#3ffc77cc14f5

One of the quotes I found interesting is this:
The upper end of Cathay’s regional fleet is the original 777-300 (non-ER) variant. “We’ve got 438 seats in them,” then-chairman John Slosar told the Wings Club last May. “They’re fantastic people movers on big, thick Asia routes.”

Boeing no longer sells the -300. Cathay recently obtained more by taking five ex-Emirates units. They replaced Cathay’s 777-200s, providing seat and cargo growth at constrained Asian airports.

“There were only about 50 of them built, and if we could we would probably buy all 50,” Slosar said of the -300.


This was pre-Covid of course. I imagine it would be in CX’s best interest to adjust their fleet to lower demand now, so the 78X makes sense for the regional product. It would be a modest upgrade from the 333 and a good way to adjust to lower demand by replacing the older 773’s one to one. If they’re not interested in increasing capacity on 333 routes, I suppose they could always purchase a mix of 789’s and 78X’s. It makes the most sense to go with GE as well. They have tons of experience with GE already with 747-8F’s and 77W’s and the Trent 1000 already has a tarnished reputation. In fact, the GENX-2B67 on the 747-8F is practically the same as the GENX-1B76/78 used on the 78X aside from the bleedless design on the 87.

Agree. Despite the fact that Boeing built the 78X to directly replace the 772ER, most carriers use the 78X as something between the 333-772 and the 773-77W, especially in thick short-to-medium-haul routes.

It would make sense that CX will choose the GEnx-1B as it has facilities and experience on the similar GEnx-2B on the 748F. CX should have a call to GE for an order, or a conversion if it has ordered the GE9X.
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:31 pm

Sounds like a B773/A333 replacement, and that quite frankly was needed. Some of the A333s upon retirement will be pushing, if not past the age of, 30, most of which have spent their entire service lives with CX/KA. CX has to be concerned that some of its A330s are reaching expiration.

If they have a GE contract for the B779, I suspect that the B78X will also be GE-powered.

B77W/A359/A35K for long haul (keep in mind that CX is extending leases by 10 years on a a good number of aircraft where there were sale-leasebacks), and B78X for medium haul, with newer A333s all moved to KA.

Cathay Pacific still needs to make a significant narrow-body order though. Also, orders these days will tend to be more for necessary replacement than expansion.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:35 pm

Antaras wrote:
Agree. Despite the fact that Boeing built the 78X to directly replace the 772ER, most carriers use the 78X as something between the 333-772 and the 773-77W, especially in thick short-to-medium-haul routes.


The 787-10 is not a direct 777-200ER replacement. It simply lacks the range to reliably do what a 777-200ER does with the same payload. What the 787-10 is, is a direct 777-200A or a slightly bigger and slightly more capable A330-300 successor. That's not a bad place to be, considering that Airbus delivered almost 500 A330-300s over the past decade. It is also no coincidence that all 787-10 operators except United Airlines have been using it for regional and medium-haul flying.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:53 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Antaras wrote:
Agree. Despite the fact that Boeing built the 78X to directly replace the 772ER, most carriers use the 78X as something between the 333-772 and the 773-77W, especially in thick short-to-medium-haul routes.


The 787-10 is not a direct 777-200ER replacement. It simply lacks the range to reliably do what a 777-200ER does with the same payload. What the 787-10 is, is a direct 777-200A or a slightly bigger and slightly more capable A330-300 successor. That's not a bad place to be, considering that Airbus delivered almost 500 A330-300s over the past decade. It is also no coincidence that all 787-10 operators except United Airlines have been using it for regional and medium-haul flying.


Perhaps you missed What Air New Zealand said this about the 777-200ER and 787-10 when they ordered it last year

“The 787-10 is longer and even more fuel efficient. However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we've ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.


These new long-haul aircraft will replace Air New Zealand's fleet of eight 777-200 aircraft, which will be phased out by 2025. Combined with GE's GEnx-1B engines, they are expected to be 25 percent more fuel efficient than the aircraft they're replacing.


https://www.airnewzealand.com/press-rel ... reamliners

That’s pretty good testament for the 787-10 range since Air New Zealand uses the 777-200ER on 6000nm routes. That’s enough range to cover every city in Europe, Asia and Australia from HKG
 
Aceskywalker
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:06 pm

If CX wants to rid itself of 777X orders and go for 787, here’s an idea: go away from Boeing and go for A330neo. It is a cheaper aircraft, a direct 1:1 replacement. Pilot pools will be unified with a A350/A330/A330N fleet. Go all Airbus CX it’s the smart thing to do.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:06 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Antaras wrote:
Agree. Despite the fact that Boeing built the 78X to directly replace the 772ER, most carriers use the 78X as something between the 333-772 and the 773-77W, especially in thick short-to-medium-haul routes.


The 787-10 is not a direct 777-200ER replacement. It simply lacks the range to reliably do what a 777-200ER does with the same payload. What the 787-10 is, is a direct 777-200A or a slightly bigger and slightly more capable A330-300 successor. That's not a bad place to be, considering that Airbus delivered almost 500 A330-300s over the past decade. It is also no coincidence that all 787-10 operators except United Airlines have been using it for regional and medium-haul flying.


Perhaps you missed What Air New Zealand said this about the 777-200ER and 787-10 when they ordered it last year

“The 787-10 is longer and even more fuel efficient. However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we've ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.


These new long-haul aircraft will replace Air New Zealand's fleet of eight 777-200 aircraft, which will be phased out by 2025. Combined with GE's GEnx-1B engines, they are expected to be 25 percent more fuel efficient than the aircraft they're replacing.


https://www.airnewzealand.com/press-rel ... reamliners

That’s pretty good testament for the 787-10 range since Air New Zealand uses the 777-200ER on 6000nm routes. That’s enough range to cover every city in Europe, Asia and Australia from HKG


In fact not many carriers use the 77E with its maximum range (not many 77E's routes are close to 78X's maximum range). So in fact 78X is the perfect sucessor with the 77E, with better passaengers' experience as well as effiency.
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:14 pm

chonetsao wrote:
CX can just keep its youngest B777-300ER much longer. Also, after the crisis, there will be a handful of cheap B777-300ER available. Also think this way, currently there are quite a few B777-300ER under CX is leased with lease will terminate soon. Leasing company will come up with great deals to entice CX to continue the lease or sell back at a steep discount. Let us face it, the demand for B777-300ER after the crisis will be very low for a while.


About a week ago we learned CX has extended several 77W lease contracts, and will extend more in the coming weeks or months.

Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Good moaning!
 
chonetsao
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:23 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
CX can just keep its youngest B777-300ER much longer. Also, after the crisis, there will be a handful of cheap B777-300ER available. Also think this way, currently there are quite a few B777-300ER under CX is leased with lease will terminate soon. Leasing company will come up with great deals to entice CX to continue the lease or sell back at a steep discount. Let us face it, the demand for B777-300ER after the crisis will be very low for a while.


About a week ago we learned CX has extended several 77W lease contracts, and will extend more in the coming weeks or months.

Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order


Thanks! I thought I read it somewhere but did not know the details. Thank you for the information. I am glad CX decides to keep the B777-300ER and I hope they got a great deal.
 
VRHNM
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:33 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Sounds like a B773/A333 replacement, and that quite frankly was needed. Some of the A333s upon retirement will be pushing, if not past the age of, 30, most of which have spent their entire service lives with CX/KA. CX has to be concerned that some of its A330s are reaching expiration.

If they have a GE contract for the B779, I suspect that the B78X will also be GE-powered.

B77W/A359/A35K for long haul (keep in mind that CX is extending leases by 10 years on a a good number of aircraft where there were sale-leasebacks), and B78X for medium haul, with newer A333s all moved to KA.

Cathay Pacific still needs to make a significant narrow-body order though. Also, orders these days will tend to be more for necessary replacement than expansion.


The CX group has placed 32 A321neo aircraft to replace the A320 and A321 aircraft at Cathay Dragon. 16 of the 32 will be allocated to HK Express which leaves the remaining 16 slightly short of fully replacing the 14+8 A320s and A321s.

The first A321neo for Cathay Dragon has already been registered but seems to have its delivery delayed for now (B-HPB).
 
VRHNM
Posts: 121
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:38 pm

Aceskywalker wrote:
If CX wants to rid itself of 777X orders and go for 787, here’s an idea: go away from Boeing and go for A330neo. It is a cheaper aircraft, a direct 1:1 replacement. Pilot pools will be unified with a A350/A330/A330N fleet. Go all Airbus CX it’s the smart thing to do.


I've heard that the A339 is actually not that much better than the A333 when placed in regional ops... Can anybody verify this?
With longhaul A333 ops basically replaced by the A359, I don't really see the efficiency of advantage of the A339 being particularly useful for CX.

The remaining A333 'longhaul' ops are 1-2 frequencies (pre-Wuhan Coronavirus) to Australia, DXB and MLE (these are counted as 'medium long routes' in CX's route classification).
South Asia has historically been served mostly by A333s but have seen upgauging to 77W aircraft before the global slowdown in air traffic. Nevertheless, these routes have stage lengths of less than 7 hours.

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