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mig17
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:45 pm

Aceskywalker wrote:
If CX wants to rid itself of 777X orders and go for 787, here’s an idea: go away from Boeing and go for A330neo. It is a cheaper aircraft, a direct 1:1 replacement. Pilot pools will be unified with a A350/A330/A330N fleet. Go all Airbus CX it’s the smart thing to do.

They could have done that if they didn't need it to be a Boeing product with GE engine option for swaping the 777-X order to. And to be honest, the worth investing to widebody for the futur are and already were pre Covid A350 and 787.
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whywhyzee
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:04 pm

Not that they need it for long haul flying, but considering CX runs low density configurations for the most part, the 787-10 could very easily fly almost all of their long haul flying program, save for JNB/North America. Obviously with the A350, it's not necessarily relevant, but it's another option that would slot in between the A359 and A351 for them if they wanted to run a best fit airplane for every route.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:22 pm

Aceskywalker wrote:
If CX wants to rid itself of 777X orders and go for 787, here’s an idea: go away from Boeing and go for A330neo. It is a cheaper aircraft, a direct 1:1 replacement. Pilot pools will be unified with a A350/A330/A330N fleet. Go all Airbus CX it’s the smart thing to do.


They may have a contract with GE for engines, and the A339 is exclusive to Rolls Royce. Their A321neos are coming with CFM engines. The idea may be: RR only with Cathay Dragon's wide-bodies, and everything else with GE.
 
BAorAB
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:27 pm

Makes perfect sense! Can't think of a better regional aircraft for inter Asia routes. Its the most efficient aircraft on the market for 5-8hr flights, yet capable of flying 12hrs with full passenger load. Super versatile!

Cathay have a total of 51 A330-300's in service (25 @ Cathay & 26 @ Cathay Dragon).

Singapore choose the 787-10 for Intra Asia and South Pacific and ordered 49 of them, by all accounts it was a great decision. They configured 337 in 2 class which was 38 more than their A333's and a far better Business Class product!

This is a huge win for Boeing of it happens. They lock up the mid range replacement aircraft now and when the time finally comes to replace the 55 - 777's (38 77W's and 17 773's) they win again having the best replacement product in the market.
 
airzona11
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:25 pm

There is no way this is the only move if indeed they swap 777x for 78710. The 777x and 7810 will fill entirely different roles for CX. There will have to be other A330/777/A350 shuffles. Let alone Cathay Dragon.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:32 pm

airzona11 wrote:
There is no way this is the only move if indeed they swap 777x for 78710. The 777x and 7810 will fill entirely different roles for CX. There will have to be other A330/777/A350 shuffles. Let alone Cathay Dragon.


CX is in the process of extending 20 B77W leases for 10 years.
 
airzona11
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:08 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
There is no way this is the only move if indeed they swap 777x for 78710. The 777x and 7810 will fill entirely different roles for CX. There will have to be other A330/777/A350 shuffles. Let alone Cathay Dragon.


CX is in the process of extending 20 B77W leases for 10 years.


Which makes sense on the upper/long-range end, what are your thoughts on what is getting cut for the regional flying?
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:09 pm

All airlines are going to be rethinking their orders now. Many wont see post-covid19 traffic for 3-4 years. I think all wide body orders are classified as "soft" right now. We may see quite a bit of re-shuffling of orders for some time.
 
potter787
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:29 pm

This could be the end for 777-9. With more and more airlines ordering smaller airplanes. 777-9 might suffer the same fate as A380 but much faster. I wonder if LH and SQ will change their orders for 777X given the grim market outlook. EK might be not as they need something to replace their 777 and A380
 
behramjee
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:40 pm

I totally agree with this move being examined by CX for a whole lot of reasons:

1. Cash flow savings

Capital cost of a B779 is US$104m more than a B781 at published price levels which means its about +30% more costlier. Lets say realistically you can purchase both aircraft at a 50% discount due to 21 units being ordered, it means approximately US$ 221m for the B779 and US$ 169m for the B781. That is savings of US$ 52m per aircraft unit multiplied by 21 equals over US$ 1 billion capital costs saved !

2. Long term usefulness

The B781 is a regional beast of an aircraft in terms of operating performance economics for flights under 9 hours in particular. CX's B781s will most likely seat 36J + 288Y (324 seats total) in a regional layout (having flat beds in J class) whilst the intercontinental version should have the same J class count but less Y due to a Y+ cabin being included. The B781 realistically can fly HKG-AKL, HKG-HNL and HKG-IST but it cannot do HKG-YVR/SEA/SFO.

3. Wide body long term future fleet

If this does get implemented, the WB long haul fleet in the 2030-39 decade will revolve around the A351 which is perfectly fine as it already does operate routes such as HKG-JFK nonstop. The only A351 ULH route that poses at times a payload issue for CX is IAD-HKG but this can be fixed if CX requests a modification and gets the 319T A351 MTOW variant.

4. Politics and Contracts

Someone earlier on wrote that CX should become an all Airbus carrier. Unfortunately that is not legally possible as CX must have already paid some initial deposits for the 21 B779s it had earlier ordered. In addition, CX is smart enough to realize that to be politically savy it means to maintain a decent amount of both Boeing and Airbus planes in its fleet thus not being reliant on one sole supplier. Please also note that the A339 would seat in total approximately 50-60 less pax than a B781. The A359s though same sized as the B781, are not as good of a regional aircraft and more suited to serving long haul medium density markets such as SEA, BRU, DUB, ORD etc.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:46 pm

chonetsao wrote:
CX can just keep its youngest B777-300ER much longer. Also, after the crisis, there will be a handful of cheap B777-300ER available. Also think this way, currently there are quite a few B777-300ER under CX is leased with lease will terminate soon. Leasing company will come up with great deals to entice CX to continue the lease or sell back at a steep discount. Let us face it, the demand for B777-300ER after the crisis will be very low for a while.

Personally I think B777-300ER still have a place in CX's fleet due to its first class seating, cargo ability and longevity. Although CX may reduce the number of the B777-300ER in its fleet, which is evitable.

It seems to me all those things CX values for the 77W are also true for the 779 and so it'll still be of interest if we see the market recover. Given the circumstances, gaining the A330 replacement market with 78X and shelving the 779 till demand rebounds may be the best approach for Boeing to follow. Keeping 787 production as high as possible and 779 production as low as possible would seem to make best use of available opportunities. Since the fiscal year is going to be a disaster anyway, it probably is a good time to write down a lot of R&D costs so that when the recovery happens they can book large profits.

StTim wrote:
GE must be starting to be concerned with the market for the 777X engines. We know they have had technical difficulties meaning development costs will be above expectations and now demand is falling away.

Yet they've already paid the bulk of the development costs and the first four 779 have rolled out of the factory. It's too late for them to save much if any of the R&D money. It also doesn't seem to make sense to abandon the product. Of all the options, shelving or slow rolling the product seems to be the only sensible option, along with writing down/off most of the R&D costs since the numbers already will be historically bad.
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smartplane
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:07 pm

Window dressing for financial reporting, moving short term real liabilities to medium term possible liabilities, like the mystical QF A380 top up order, and much deferred UA A350 order. No need to worry about layout or routes at this stage, though weight growth is bound to be a CX condition.

Could backfire on CX if Boeing offer the NZ order / delivery positions.
 
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:25 pm

Opus99 wrote:
The 777X already had a steep hill to climb. Covid-19 has made that hill even steeper, It certainly not looking great but i won't conclude till it (eventually) enters service and at that point if airlines don't see its value or it doesn't perform to expectation of airlines (...at this point it has to surpass their expectations) then thats a wrap.

But on the topic, the switch makes sense and is a risk averse bet. Good on CX


Seems to me that the 777X is going the way of the 764.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:18 pm

airzona11 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
There is no way this is the only move if indeed they swap 777x for 78710. The 777x and 7810 will fill entirely different roles for CX. There will have to be other A330/777/A350 shuffles. Let alone Cathay Dragon.


CX is in the process of extending 20 B77W leases for 10 years.


Which makes sense on the upper/long-range end, what are your thoughts on what is getting cut for the regional flying?


I suspect that the B78X is to reduce capacity on the regional side, with reduced B773 flying down the line until they're retired.

BN727227Ultra wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
The 777X already had a steep hill to climb. Covid-19 has made that hill even steeper, It certainly not looking great but i won't conclude till it (eventually) enters service and at that point if airlines don't see its value or it doesn't perform to expectation of airlines (...at this point it has to surpass their expectations) then thats a wrap.

But on the topic, the switch makes sense and is a risk averse bet. Good on CX


Seems to me that the 777X is going the way of the 764.


At least the B764 figure to be flown by their two operators for 25-30 years though to end-of-life. It's not like the A380, which will likely meet a shorter end.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:41 pm

With oil prices in the cellar, it makes sense to keep the 77W's flying longer, after all the metal is owned. It makes very good financial sense for CX to swap models, or more likely defer their 779's out far to the right, basically returning them to options but still allowing Boeing to count the order.

With international flight demand very likely depressed due to COVID for 1+ years, the number of long routes will decline as there will be some return to hub flying as there will be insufficient traffic for most city pairs over 10 hours apart, back to just flying to LAX rather than flights also to DEN, Chicago, etc. The route maps will retreat with the medium length being stronger than the long.

The 7810 is a very efficient machine out to its capabilities, if it takes ordering 10 to defer the current 779 order it is a win for both parties. Yes, the engines will remain GE as the 779 contract has GE. Still 2 to 3 years before the 7810's arrive for the earliest one.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:25 pm

BN727227Ultra wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
The 777X already had a steep hill to climb. Covid-19 has made that hill even steeper, It certainly not looking great but i won't conclude till it (eventually) enters service and at that point if airlines don't see its value or it doesn't perform to expectation of airlines (...at this point it has to surpass their expectations) then thats a wrap.

But on the topic, the switch makes sense and is a risk averse bet. Good on CX


Seems to me that the 777X is going the way of the 764.


The 777-X is a brand new aircraft. It will surely sell.

Exchanging the 777-X with the 787-10 is not negative for the 777-X since one is a 6500NM design range aircraft and the other is 8.000NM.

For me they want to replace their old A330 first!

The 777-X will certainly replace the 777-300ER at better times
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Checklist787
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:52 pm

For me there is nothing official...
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Do it! "...
 
ewt340
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:02 pm

As an economy class passenger, this is one of the worst idea ever for comfort.

Anyway, since they want to cancel B777-9, the only other options would be to swap it for B747-8F instead.
Last edited by ewt340 on Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:13 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Anyway, since they want to cancel B777-9, the only other options would be to swap it for B747-8F instead.


And that may not be an option as a major fuselage supplier ended production last year and sold off the tooling. Boeing may or may not have ordered parts for the four frames Volga-Dnepr just cancelled, but I am of the opinion they did not.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:40 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
BN727227Ultra wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
The 777X already had a steep hill to climb. Covid-19 has made that hill even steeper, It certainly not looking great but i won't conclude till it (eventually) enters service and at that point if airlines don't see its value or it doesn't perform to expectation of airlines (...at this point it has to surpass their expectations) then thats a wrap.

But on the topic, the switch makes sense and is a risk averse bet. Good on CX


Seems to me that the 777X is going the way of the 764.


The 777-X is a brand new aircraft. It will surely sell.

Exchanging the 777-X with the 787-10 is not negative for the 777-X since one is a 6500NM design range aircraft and the other is 8.000NM.

For me they want to replace their old A330 first!

The 777-X will certainly replace the 777-300ER at better times

Or they may just order more A35K to replace the 77W and save huge amounts of money by deleting a type from their fleet.
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:02 am

AA737-823 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
I don't know about engine choice. The bad PR on RR B787 engine problem may make CX seek other choices.


Well, considering that this is a CONVERSION of a 777X order, which was guaranteed to have GE engines, I think it's a no-brainer that this one will go to GE.
Plus Cathay has an existing relationship with GE from the 77W fleet, so it's not like this would be starting from ground zero for them.
And frankly, they'd be insane to order RR engines on a 787 at this point. In my "humble" opinion!


i mean, lufthansa ordered rr engines for their 787 fleet not so long ago, why wouldn't cathay? hopefully they dont order the rr though. although, the ge9x orders could go towards the genx...
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AvFanNJ
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:33 am

Aceskywalker wrote:
If CX wants to rid itself of 777X orders and go for 787, here’s an idea: go away from Boeing and go for A330neo. It is a cheaper aircraft, a direct 1:1 replacement. Pilot pools will be unified with a A350/A330/A330N fleet. Go all Airbus CX it’s the smart thing to do.


CX has always been careful to split its orders between both airframers; it doesn't want to be too dependent on either. So for now, I don't see A330NEOs in the mix, although A350s of both types are surely coming to replace 777s cited for phaseout in the next few years.
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:04 am

Why not 789
It is good replacement of mid-long haul a330
 
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Antaras
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:19 am

chunhimlai wrote:
Why not 789
It is good replacement of mid-long haul a330

I guess that CX needs something between the size of the 333/772 and the 773/35K.
The 787-10 is perfect for that range. However we do expect that CX might have an eye on the 789, too.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
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flee
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:32 am

ewt340 wrote:
As an economy class passenger, this is one of the worst idea ever for comfort.

I have flown in CX's A350-1000 9 abreast (3-3-3) and KA's A330-300 8 abreast (2-4-2) economy class - apart from the new plane smell of the A350, comfort in Y class was better on the A330. I have flown in 789 (3-3-3) economy class too and that was even more cramped than on the A350.

If CX were to go for the 787-10 to replace the A330, it might actually be a downgrade in Y class pax comfort!
 
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Antaras
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:33 am

It's time for B to think about an increased-MTOW version of the 787-10. Or even an ER version, whichever.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
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flee
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:50 am

Antaras wrote:
It's time for B to think about an increased-MTOW version of the 787-10. Or even an ER version, whichever.

Boeing wanted a quick entry to service for the 787-10 and decided not to strengthen certain components (e.g. landing gear) for a higher MTOW. They are also leaving room in the market for the 777-8. Boeing may have to look into this seriously if 777X cancellations become a serious problem.
 
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:18 am

Antaras wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
Why not 789
It is good replacement of mid-long haul a330

I guess that CX needs something between the size of the 333/772 and the 773/35K.
The 787-10 is perfect for that range. However we do expect that CX might have an eye on the 789, too.


Like the 359.

Not sure about the 789 for CX, not convinced they need a smaller long haul frame do they? Could have a regional 789 configuration?
 
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:23 am

Stitch wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Anyway, since they want to cancel B777-9, the only other options would be to swap it for B747-8F instead.


And that may not be an option as a major fuselage supplier ended production last year and sold off the tooling. Boeing may or may not have ordered parts for the four frames Volga-Dnepr just cancelled, but I am of the opinion they did not.


1) I had heard that Boeing put into storage the key tooling fixtures for the large diameter items (just in case something came up). They could be relocated to another shop. Lessor fixtures were apparently sold, but also much cheaper to replace. I think & my opinion is that Boeing would not restart production on the fuselage for anything less than a 10 frame order.

2) It was also my understanding that all large fuselage parts for all orders were in fact produced and shipped last year before the factory was shut down with tooling removed (sold or stored). I believe that information was in a fairly well respected news source article. I heard a roomer that there may have been 1 set of spares (no good sources). Thus, I presume that the Volga-Dnepr fuselage parts have been produced.

Either way, unless someone steps in fairly soon with a new large order the 748 production days are limited to the orders on the book before the fuselage factory shut down.

Have a great day,
 
VRHNM
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:09 am

chunhimlai wrote:
Why not 789
It is good replacement of mid-long haul a330


I don't really see a place for the 789 since its not that far off the A359 in size, and mid-long haul A330s have been increasingly replaced by the A350 (both 900 and 1000) within CX anyway.
See the replacement of 33K aircraft in Australia ^^
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:26 am

scbriml wrote:
For a customer like CX, I would expect the manufacturer to offer very similar levels of discount across their entire portfolio. Even if we assume 50% discount off list prices, that would leave a 787-10 at $169 million vs 777-9 at $221 million. Assuming a one-for-one conversion of the 21 frames, that would save CX over $1 billion. Higher discounts will obviously reduce the difference, but it's still a significant saving in difficult times.


That all makes sense and if any carrier can limit or reduce capex then why wouldn’t you at this point in time. But even though they’re taking a 787-10 in lieu of a 777-9, it still effectively means they’re making a cancellation. Wouldn’t they incur some sort of financial penalty for this?

Aeroplane purchase deals does seem like the dark arts sometimes.
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:01 am

Just a reminder to keep to the topic and keep side commentary about other users out of the discussion
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sabby
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:26 am

787-10 would be quite the right size for their Aus/NZ and EU routes as well, in addition to the Asian trunk routes.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:56 am

tullamarine wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
BN727227Ultra wrote:

Seems to me that the 777X is going the way of the 764.


The 777-X is a brand new aircraft. It will surely sell.

Exchanging the 777-X with the 787-10 is not negative for the 777-X since one is a 6500NM design range aircraft and the other is 8.000NM.

For me they want to replace their old A330 first!

The 777-X will certainly replace the 777-300ER at better times

Or they may just order more A35K to replace the 77W and save huge amounts of money by deleting a type from their fleet.



Proof that not. CX prefers to lease other 777-300ERs rather than having A350-1000s. It's very revealing... ;)
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
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zeke
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:59 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:

CX is in the process of extending 20 B77W leases for 10 years.


Do you have a source for this as public information published has CX retiring leased 77Ws ?

The last annual report had a published plan of over 20 77W retirements over the next few years (see page 9) https://www.cathaypacific.com/content/d ... rks_en.pdf

Presentations made to financial analysts indicated accelerated retirements.

Can you give a logical reason why anyone would extend leases on aircraft they cannot fly now ?
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marcelh
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:04 am

sabby wrote:
787-10 would be quite the right size for their Aus/NZ and EU routes as well, in addition to the Asian trunk routes.

And what to do with the A359?
 
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SQ22
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:21 am

Please keep this thread on topic, subject of the discussion is the mentioned swap. Thanks.
 
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:50 am

Checklist787 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

The 777-X is a brand new aircraft. It will surely sell.

Exchanging the 777-X with the 787-10 is not negative for the 777-X since one is a 6500NM design range aircraft and the other is 8.000NM.

For me they want to replace their old A330 first!

The 777-X will certainly replace the 777-300ER at better times

Or they may just order more A35K to replace the 77W and save huge amounts of money by deleting a type from their fleet.



Proof that not. CX prefers to lease other 777-300ERs rather than having A350-1000s. It's very revealing... ;)


To be fair the 77Ws aren’t old and fuel is cheap, why would they order anything in these times? It is possible in future they could convert current A351s to 4 class to replace the 4 class 77W also, or they could order more A351s. The fleet is looking more simplified going foward. For long haul

4 class 77W 294 seats
3 class 351 334 seats
3 class 359 280 seats

Removing I presume 3 class 77W 368 seats and any long haul A333 converted to regional or still used to Australia and the Middle East.
 
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Polot
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:36 am

zeke wrote:
Can you give a logical reason why anyone would extend leases on aircraft they cannot fly now ?

Can you give a logical reason why anyone would buy a new aircraft they cannot fly now? The answer to both questions is the same: presumably CX will not be effectively grounded forever, and as they start operating again they must decide what is financially wisest:

A. major fleet shrinkage (defer/cancel new planes, remove planes off lease as originally planned)

B. extending leases of planes they were planning on removing pre-covid

C. taking up all the nice new but expensive planes they have on order as originally planned pre-covid.

In reality we will probably see a mix of all three. But the desired missions for new planes for the time being may be different. Long haul may not be a profitable focus soon after ‘restart’, so CX may decide they don’t want to spend the money to take the 777X on order, and continue to use existing A350 and 77W with lease extensions for their long haul needs, while possible shifting their Boeing money to 787 to help regional needs (which to be honest, would probably be the part of CX’s operations that will fully recover first).
 
Checklist787
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:43 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Or they may just order more A35K to replace the 77W and save huge amounts of money by deleting a type from their fleet.



Proof that not. CX prefers to lease other 777-300ERs rather than having A350-1000s. It's very revealing... ;)


To be fair the 77Ws aren’t old and fuel is cheap, why would they order anything in these times? It is possible in future they could convert current A351s to 4 class to replace the 4 class 77W also, or they could order more A351s. The fleet is looking more simplified going foward. For long haul

4 class 77W 294 seats
3 class 351 334 seats
3 class 359 280 seats

Removing I presume 3 class 77W 368 seats and any long haul A333 converted to regional or still used to Australia and the Middle East.


It would seem that a 4-class 787-10 would make more sense than an A350-1000 to replace its 777-9X.
Note that a 4-class 787-10 would fly FURTHER than a 3-class 787-10

This is why, they will change (maybe, is not official) the 777-X to the 787-10 and nowhere does it mention the A350-1000

If this happens, the 787-10 would be the MOST efficient of the entire CX long haul fleet in the futur IMHO...
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
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PM
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:01 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:

The idea may be: RR only with Cathay Dragon's wide-bodies, and everything else with GE.
Except, perhaps, the odd A350 or two...
 
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zeke
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:03 am

Polot wrote:
Can you give a logical reason why anyone would buy a new aircraft they cannot fly now?


I am aware of no wide body orders for some time globally.

Polot wrote:
CX will not be effectively grounded forever


There is a possibility that CX will not last, they are not government owned.

Checklist787 wrote:
It would seem that a 4-class 787-10 would make more sense than an A350-1000 to replace its 777-9X.


How could CX replace the 777-9 if none are in service ?

Checklist787 wrote:
If this hapoens, the 787-10 would be the MOST efficient of the entire CX long haul fleet in the futur IMHO...


If CX were to get the 787-10, I would suggest it will be used similar to SQ, with no crew rest, and used on short to medium haul routes.

The 787-10 is not suitable to any carrier that hauls a lot of cargo on long haul flights.
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Polot
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:08 am

zeke wrote:
Polot wrote:
Can you give a logical reason why anyone would buy a new aircraft they cannot fly now?


I am aware of no wide body orders for some time globally.

ANA ordered 20 787s last month.

zeke wrote:
There is a possibility that CX will not last, they are not government owned.

In which case this entire discussion is moot. CX would not be extending leases, CX would not be fully carrying out all their current leases, and CX would not be taking new aircraft from both Boeing and Airbus.
 
mig17
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:14 am

zeke wrote:
Can you give a logical reason why anyone would extend leases on aircraft they cannot fly now ?

Airline management have to focus on surviving now, but they also have to be ready to restart and have a short, medium and long term plan.
Keeping some leased 77W allow them to defer new A350 and swap 777-9 to something else comming in later in short term.
In medium term, there long haul will be 77W, A359 and A35K, while adding 787 to replace A330 and 773 in regional role.
In long term, CX will invest in a large fleet of A350 and 787 for both long haul and regionnal flights.

My personnal feeling is the usefullness of 779 while also having A350 was already in question pre Covid. And Covid brought down the final argument in favor of axing it.

CX do not need another 77W replacement, but they will need an A330 CEO one sooner or latter.

It is a move to optimise fleet planing and defer major cash out for new frames.
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
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PM
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:27 am

Polot wrote:
ANA ordered 20 787s last month.


Strictly speaking, they ordered 12.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:32 am

PM wrote:
Polot wrote:
ANA ordered 20 787s last month.


Strictly speaking, they ordered 12.


Strictly speaking? That means?

https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... -aircraft/
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
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PM
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:43 am

Checklist787 wrote:
PM wrote:
Polot wrote:
ANA ordered 20 787s last month.


Strictly speaking, they ordered 12.


Strictly speaking? That means?

https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... -aircraft/

It means that if you look at Boeing's orderbook for March, it lists 12 orders.

Therefore, ANA have ordered 12 787s.

Am I going too fast for you?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:07 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
PM wrote:
Polot wrote:
ANA ordered 20 787s last month.


Strictly speaking, they ordered 12.


Strictly speaking? That means?

https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... -aircraft/


Strictly speaking, that means Boeing booked 11 x 787-10 and 1 x 787-9 for ANA on 31st March. Total 12 not 20.

Why not use Boeing as the most accurate source for information about Boeing orders? :confused:
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries
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brindabella
Posts: 625
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:13 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
With oil prices in the cellar, it makes sense to keep the 77W's flying longer, after all the metal is owned. It makes very good financial sense for CX to swap models, or more likely defer their 779's out far to the right, basically returning them to options but still allowing Boeing to count the order.

With international flight demand very likely depressed due to COVID for 1+ years, the number of long routes will decline as there will be some return to hub flying as there will be insufficient traffic for most city pairs over 10 hours apart, back to just flying to LAX rather than flights also to DEN, Chicago, etc. The route maps will retreat with the medium length being stronger than the long.

The 7810 is a very efficient machine out to its capabilities, if it takes ordering 10 to defer the current 779 order it is a win for both parties. Yes, the engines will remain GE as the 779 contract has GE. Still 2 to 3 years before the 7810's arrive for the earliest one.


:checkmark:

Nice visualisation.

cheers
Billy
 
brindabella
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Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:31 pm

VRHNM wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
Why not 789
It is good replacement of mid-long haul a330


I don't really see a place for the 789 since its not that far off the A359 in size, and mid-long haul A330s have been increasingly replaced by the A350 (both 900 and 1000) within CX anyway.
See the replacement of 33K aircraft in Australia ^^


I don't watch CX much, so you may well be right.

However a number of the comments about the "small" 789 seem to me to be referencing the historical CX profile.

If the 787X is already in the fleet, the 789 seems to me to be a very smart option.

A) the CFO will love it in any "quiet" period (AKA "downturn"), and
B) it is superbly flexible. Ideal for opening-up new routes.

The 359 is much more metal.

cheers
Billy

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