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leghorn
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737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:20 am

Now that the lower market is inundated with cheap pre-owned planes Boeing can probably afford to push the 737Max7 as a part of a suite of products from 737 Max7 thru to a 737 Max 10 to any carrier looking to modernise their fleet.
Their factory isn't going to be as busy as they had expected.
Of course they won't be making profit on them but they will soak up fixed costs.
It may not be as easy on fuel as some of the competition but at a price it can make a case for itself. Like ATRs, Q400s and A220s have shown when load is light during the year you keep flying your smaller planes and rest the bigger ones. The Max 7 would give airlines the same flexibility but with added fleet commonality.
 
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hic787
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:00 pm

Do airlines want the Max-7 seeing as the lifetime of these planes are around 15-20 years? I mean the Covid pressure and reduction in services will have a dramatic effect now and for the next two years I'd guess. Beyond that? I feel as though airlines would rather fly a Max8/A320 sized aircraft with lighter loads for now rather than flying full smaller aircraft now then have a capacity deficit in a few years.

Not to mention the aircraft hasn't even entered service yet and the Max programme is far from being ready.
 
leghorn
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:00 pm

The plane will be certified. Waiting many months while leaving the competitors free to lay the groundwork to win orders and court future Customers would be foolish.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:03 pm

I don't understand the question, the economics between the different a/c haven't changed. So why would they push the 7M if they could just push the 8M/10M?

But indeed first fix the damn thing.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
leghorn
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:16 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I don't understand the question, the economics between the different a/c haven't changed. So why would they push the 7M if they could just push the 8M/10M?

The economics have changed completely. productions slots aren't the precious commodity they once were and fuel prices are through the floor.
 
randomdude83
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:25 pm

Assuming the Max gets two properly calibrated, reliable AOA sensors and a properly working MCAS/Computers that know what to do if sensors don't work...I keep thinking the MAX7 would be the one Delta would go for after post COVID19 era. it'd make sense to have a 150 passenger in addition to the a223 but with longer range to take on more weight/distance and actually replace the a319 properly range/empty weight wise.
 
JohanTally
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:30 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I don't understand the question, the economics between the different a/c haven't changed. So why would they push the 7M if they could just push the 8M/10M?

But indeed first fix the damn thing.


With the Embraer deal officially dead the MAX 7 is competing against the E195-E2 and A220-300 so I doubt Boeing will just concede the space. It will be the best performing model of MAX as far as takeoff and range with only 3 flight attendants. Hopefully it finds it's space in the market with airlines not needing extra capacity.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:32 pm

leghorn wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I don't understand the question, the economics between the different a/c haven't changed. So why would they push the 7M if they could just push the 8M/10M?

The economics have changed completely. productions slots aren't the precious commodity they once were and fuel prices are through the floor.


They need to deliver 5.000 MAX's. Aircraft aren't being bought on a whim, so yes, oil prices are down now, sure, so is the economic situation. So the best way to deal with that is to continue to operate less efficient a/c.

The operating economics for a 7MAX and 8MAX are supposedly about the same, so who do you see would buy a 7M now, which previously didn't and could not better operate a 8M.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
leghorn
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:41 pm

The production and operating economics of a fast intel chip and a slower version of same are basically the same. Intel sells one significantly cheaper than the other to maximise profits/minimise loses. I'm saying Boeing have more of an incentive now to cut the price of the Max7 to win sales where they were never in the market to win sales with the Max8 at the price they wished to sell the Max8 at.
 
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SRQKEF
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:06 pm

leghorn wrote:
The production and operating economics of a fast intel chip and a slower version of same are basically the same. Intel sells one significantly cheaper than the other to maximise profits/minimise loses. I'm saying Boeing have more of an incentive now to cut the price of the Max7 to win sales where they were never in the market to win sales with the Max8 at the price they wished to sell the Max8 at.


You're misunderstanding the point. It's not the production economics but operating economics the airlines are worried about, and if they can have approximately the same operating cost on two aircraft types but one has 30-50 extra seats it's obvious they'll always choose the larger one. Regarding the example you cited, Intel sells the lower performing cost at about break even while the faster one offers great margins. In your scenario Boeing is already selling MAX8s close to at cost levels, so they'd actually need to be willing to lose money on every MAX7 they sold.
Nothing compares to taking off in an empty 757 with full thrust!
 
leghorn
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:13 pm

Your misunderstanding the point; acquisition costs is where it is at.
If you can't afford to acquire it then you can't buy it or lease it.
Not only the airlines but the lease companies are financially embarrassed now.

I've given real working examples in business where producers have exercised differential pricing.
It shouldn't come as a surprise to you.
It won't come as a surprise to airlines because they operate this model every day of the week for the seats that they sell to their customers.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:39 pm

leghorn wrote:
Your misunderstanding the point; acquisition costs is where it is at.
If you can't afford to acquire it then you can't buy it or lease it.
Not only the airlines but the lease companies are financially embarrassed now.

I've given real working examples in business where producers have exercised differential pricing.
It shouldn't come as a surprise to you.
It won't come as a surprise to airlines because they operate this model every day of the week for the seats that they sell to their customers.


I looked at this thread because the title intrigued me. I wanted to see what new objective facts (none) and reasoning you might bring to the subject. IMHO it's not compelling.

A MAX7 is, and was, of interest to carriers who have big fleets of 8s or 10s and want a few of something smaller but don't want a new type - no A220-300s or E2-195s for them. Better availability of slots really doesn't change that: Boeing was never going to tell UA (as an example) that it couldn't have ~50 MAX7s because Boeing wanted to sell 8s and 10s instead.

The relatively greater appeal of something smaller (a trip cost vs. CASM argument) has currency (pun intended) but you really need to look at the duration of COVID-19 (and subsequent industry restructuring) in the context of a 25-year asset life of a new MAX. You might want something smaller for a while, but do you think you want it for most of the economic life of the plane? Do you want to lock in smaller (order/take delivery now) or just fly older aircraft for 2-5 years until a view of the medium term is more settled?

Let's see how many new MAX7 orders Boeing gets in the next 24 months. Let's see how many 8/9/10 orders get converted to 7s. IMHO it won't be many.
 
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Antaras
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:46 pm

In fact the Max 7 (or the whole Max family) is not operable on short runways of domestic/regional airports.

Minium runway length for take-off of some 120-150 seats airframes:
Boeing 737-7 MAX: 7000 ft | 2100 m
Embraer E190-E2: 4760 ft | 1450 m
Airbus A319-100: 6070 ft | 1850 m ||| The neo and ceo share similar thrust and weight so I guess there would be no big difference between those 2 generations.
Airbus A220-300: 6200 ft | 1890 m

Lots of carrier use the 120-seaters on regional routes, between small airports. The regional jets, especially the E190e2 and A223, is obviously suitable for that mission. "Big jet" such as A319 was proven suitable for similar missions (Druk Air says hi). Meanwhile the Max7, obviously it can't "invade" the profitable regional market. In fact even the A321neo can take-off on the shorter runway than the Max7 (6522 ft | 1988 m).
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
leghorn
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:50 pm

There aren't many Cost Accountants here.
Boeing are going to have to make hard decisions like cutting shifts, closing production facilities, losing production capacity, incurring writedown costs, etc...
They will crunch the numbers and determine that it makes sound commercial sense for them to offer Max7s and Max10s at prices they would never have considered palatable before. The Max8 will remain the relative Cash Cow and needs to be maintained as such... it is their Intel i7. They will actively compete for sales that would otherwise have gone to Embraer or Bombardier on one end and A321 Airbus on the other end. They will go after those sales in isolation and as part of a broader package to Customers. If a Customer invites them to pitch about Max8s they will make a point of mentioning that the smaller or larger plane in that airline's fleet is not getting any younger and that they should really consider a Max7 or 10 to round out their fleet.
It wasn't a strategy they were pushing in the past because every sale they made on those was at the expense of the Cash Cow.
 
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flee
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:50 pm

Airlines will probably hold all new aircraft deliveries for the next 12 months while they wait and see. With fuel prices going rock bottom, old (fully paid up) aircraft are still economic to operate. No Capex is required.
 
HTCone
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:23 pm

flee wrote:
Airlines will probably hold all new aircraft deliveries for the next 12 months while they wait and see. With fuel prices going rock bottom, old (fully paid up) aircraft are still economic to operate. No Capex is required.


Exactly, and there’ll likely be a big number of bargain CEOs, NGs and even NEOs lying around from defunct carriers (and maybe even lessors) when things do start to pick up.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:25 pm

flee wrote:
Airlines will probably hold all new aircraft deliveries for the next 12 months while they wait and see. With fuel prices going rock bottom, old (fully paid up) aircraft are still economic to operate. No Capex is required.


Much more compelling case, yes.

If a carrier needed more lift in a hurry —puahahahah!—, the next most compelling case would be used A319s.

Then new A220s.

Then used 73Gs, if available.

Then just giving up on the routes.

The MAX7 is not a remote possibility here for any airline looking to come out ahead.
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
 
sdh9
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:14 pm

Antaras wrote:
In fact the Max 7 (or the whole Max family) is not operable on short runways of domestic/regional airports.

Minium runway length for take-off of some 120-150 seats airframes:
Boeing 737-7 MAX: 7000 ft | 2100 m
Embraer E190-E2: 4760 ft | 1450 m
Airbus A319-100: 6070 ft | 1850 m ||| The neo and ceo share similar thrust and weight so I guess there would be no big difference between those 2 generations.
Airbus A220-300: 6200 ft | 1890 m

Lots of carrier use the 120-seaters on regional routes, between small airports. The regional jets, especially the E190e2 and A223, is obviously suitable for that mission. "Big jet" such as A319 was proven suitable for similar missions (Druk Air says hi). Meanwhile the Max7, obviously it can't "invade" the profitable regional market. In fact even the A321neo can take-off on the shorter runway than the Max7 (6522 ft | 1988 m).


I’m not sure where you’re getting your data from, but prior to the grounding, MAX 8s routinely operated to airports with a shorter runway than 7000’, so obviously the shorter and lighter MAX 7 could do so. Even the -800 could operate out of SNA routinely, which is around 5000’.

Takeoff performance is heavily dependent on weight, and unless one is trying to depart with the tanks topped off, a shorter than 7000’ runway is definitely usable for takeoff.
 
FlyingViking
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:46 pm

Maersk Air of Denmark flew the 737-200 adv. in and out of the Faroe Islands daily to Copenhagen. Back in the old days the airstrip up there was 3300 feet then lengthened to 3600 feet it was 3600 in 1982, then 4100 and now 5900 feet. Runway length needed, depends among others on the T/O weight, runway condition, engine power and so on, and while talking North Atlantic: a little headwind help comes in handy as well of course. Per a Maersk Air Captain I once talked to during a cockpit visit in 1982 they had no problem leaving with a full passenger load, but basically only with fuel to reach Copenhagen.

The Max 7 is less to build and operate then a bigger 8/9/10 so it could come in handy if fleet commonality is a must, with pilots, mx, etc, how much saved though overall is the big question. So when a fully loaded Max 8 goes tech at the gate and the only thing to take it's place is a Max 7 watch for everyone in Headquarters to reach for the Malox bottle hahaha. But if a Max 7 will always leave with empty seats why step up to a Max 8. I do expect a few orders for the Max 7.
 
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par13del
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:11 pm

So the downsizing of the widebody fleets from the largest to the smallest due to COVID has no correlation to the narrow body fleet, no one will downsize routes from A321 / 737-9 to A320 / 737-8?
Ok, I defer to the experts.
 
rlwynn
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:35 pm

737-7 flies transcon from the 5700ft SNA runway.
I can drive faster than you
 
KD5MDK
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:38 pm

I think the argument is no one will buy new, more inefficient aircraft compared to operating existing aircraft. By the time the existing aircraft have to be replaced, the situation will be more clear, and it's unlikely less efficient new aircraft will look better then.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:44 pm

Antaras wrote:
Minium runway length for take-off of some 120-150 seats airframes:
Boeing 737-7 MAX: 7000 ft | 2100 m
Embraer E190-E2: 4760 ft | 1450 m
Airbus A319-100: 6070 ft | 1850 m ||| The neo and ceo share similar thrust and weight so I guess there would be no big difference between those 2 generations.
Airbus A220-300: 6200 ft | 1890 m

Curious as to where you're getting these numbers from, and at what weight?

They're obviously not accurate for day2day operations, as the 737-700 (NG) and A319CEO (and even larger variants of their respective families) routinely operate off of runways far shorter than 7000ft. Not at MTOW, but then again, these numbers don't appear to reflect those stats either.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
leghorn
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:53 am

Boeing will also tell you that it is easier to get all your pilots closer to 900 hours flying time if you are on one type instead of multiple types.
In Europe or America flying a more exotic bird might not be so difficult to maintain but somewhere more remote you might be glad to have a common or garden 737/A320
 
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Acey
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:37 am

Antaras wrote:
In fact even the A321neo can take-off on the shorter runway than the Max7 (6522 ft | 1988 m).


This statement should have been the big clue that all your numbers are completely bogus. :lol:
If a man hasn't discovered something that he will die for, he isn't fit to live. -- Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
737max8
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:35 pm

Antaras wrote:
In fact the Max 7 (or the whole Max family) is not operable on short runways of domestic/regional airports.

Minium runway length for take-off of some 120-150 seats airframes:
Boeing 737-7 MAX: 7000 ft | 2100 m
Embraer E190-E2: 4760 ft | 1450 m
Airbus A319-100: 6070 ft | 1850 m ||| The neo and ceo share similar thrust and weight so I guess there would be no big difference between those 2 generations.
Airbus A220-300: 6200 ft | 1890 m

Lots of carrier use the 120-seaters on regional routes, between small airports. The regional jets, especially the E190e2 and A223, is obviously suitable for that mission. "Big jet" such as A319 was proven suitable for similar missions (Druk Air says hi). Meanwhile the Max7, obviously it can't "invade" the profitable regional market. In fact even the A321neo can take-off on the shorter runway than the Max7 (6522 ft | 1988 m).


Lol this made me laugh so much. Someone tell WN they can't fly their maxes to MDW any more.

Has anyone ever told you 777s take off from OGG at 6,995 feet all the time too?
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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Varsity1
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:06 pm

Antaras wrote:
In fact the Max 7 (or the whole Max family) is not operable on short runways of domestic/regional airports.

Minium runway length for take-off of some 120-150 seats airframes:
Boeing 737-7 MAX: 7000 ft | 2100 m
Embraer E190-E2: 4760 ft | 1450 m
Airbus A319-100: 6070 ft | 1850 m ||| The neo and ceo share similar thrust and weight so I guess there would be no big difference between those 2 generations.
Airbus A220-300: 6200 ft | 1890 m

Lots of carrier use the 120-seaters on regional routes, between small airports. The regional jets, especially the E190e2 and A223, is obviously suitable for that mission. "Big jet" such as A319 was proven suitable for similar missions (Druk Air says hi). Meanwhile the Max7, obviously it can't "invade" the profitable regional market. In fact even the A321neo can take-off on the shorter runway than the Max7 (6522 ft | 1988 m).


You couldn't be more wrong, the max8 can get in and out of EYW, 5,000ft. It's all about weight and runway conditions.
 
Whiteguy
Posts: 1573
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Re: 737 Max7 might have some life in it.

Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:00 pm

Antaras wrote:
In fact the Max 7 (or the whole Max family) is not operable on short runways of domestic/regional airports.

Minium runway length for take-off of some 120-150 seats airframes:
Boeing 737-7 MAX: 7000 ft | 2100 m
Embraer E190-E2: 4760 ft | 1450 m
Airbus A319-100: 6070 ft | 1850 m ||| The neo and ceo share similar thrust and weight so I guess there would be no big difference between those 2 generations.
Airbus A220-300: 6200 ft | 1890 m

Lots of carrier use the 120-seaters on regional routes, between small airports. The regional jets, especially the E190e2 and A223, is obviously suitable for that mission. "Big jet" such as A319 was proven suitable for similar missions (Druk Air says hi). Meanwhile the Max7, obviously it can't "invade" the profitable regional market. In fact even the A321neo can take-off on the shorter runway than the Max7 (6522 ft | 1988 m).


Your MAX7 number of 7000 ft is takeoff distance at sea level, ISA, and MTOW.....as was pointed out, MAX8s routinely operate at lower distances.

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