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Nicknuzzii
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The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:39 pm

With KL and AF enduring some troubles, KL is already exploring options of a life without AF and the Skyteam alliance. VS is not a member of Skyteam but does work closely with the alliance but VS is ready to go under. Skyteam is already at risk of losing two European members. Alitalia is also set to leave the alliance. Is the future of the alliance more joint-venture oriented or will new members be attracted?
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:32 pm

At this point I would say surviving members of ST will be very dependent on each other for a couple of years, as traffic (hopefully) builds back up. I also don't see any new members to ANY alliance except for those announced pre-Covid. Joining one takes some investment, and no airlines have money for that right now when they're fighting for survival.
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Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
MIflyer12
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:48 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
With KL and AF enduring some troubles, KL is already exploring options of a life without AF and the Skyteam alliance. VS is not a member of Skyteam but does work closely with the alliance but VS is ready to go under. Skyteam is already at risk of losing two European members. Alitalia is also set to leave the alliance. Is the future of the alliance more joint-venture oriented or will new members be attracted?


AF and KL aren't going anywhere. Ten billion Euros from France and The Netherlands assure that, and there will be more if needed. Do you not understand the role of State Champions in France? Do you not understand the pathology of The Netherlands to maintain comparable standing by KL? The French government would sooner melt down the Eiffel Tower for scrap than let AF disappear.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:21 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
With KL and AF enduring some troubles, KL is already exploring options of a life without AF and the Skyteam alliance. VS is not a member of Skyteam but does work closely with the alliance but VS is ready to go under. Skyteam is already at risk of losing two European members. Alitalia is also set to leave the alliance. Is the future of the alliance more joint-venture oriented or will new members be attracted?

While alliances have definitely waned in importance from the early days of the '00s, I'm not sure why you believe one is at any more/less risk than the other two.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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usdcaguy
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:30 pm

I'm thinking KL would not want to be in any alliance involving BA or LH, unless they were to become part of IAG or the LH Group, and I don't see that happening. The strongest players in ST remain DL-AF-KL-AM-KE, and they are more cohesive because DL has pulled them into JVs. SU and MU don't contribute much outside of their home countries and I don't believe they have JVs with anyone. The other carriers are small potatoes. Whatever resources KL dedicates to alliances are most certainly going into JV planning, and 90% of its customers will rarely use other carriers. Further, KL cannot discuss things with other carriers nearly as extensively as they can with JV partners due to antitrust concerns, so planning with them will always be limited. I would say that DL-AF-KL really only need AM, KE and MU to be in the picture at this point, and arguably, they don't need MU. LA may come around someday and join ST, but they really don't have to. I would say the global players are going to stop putting time and energy into their alliances and will eventually wind up with a core of carriers that they partner with, and these carriers may change whichever way the wind blows.
 
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:37 pm

usdcaguy wrote:
I'm thinking KL would not want to be in any alliance involving BA or LH, unless they were to become part of IAG or the LH Group, and I don't see that happening. The strongest players in ST remain DL-AF-KL-AM-KE, and they are more cohesive because DL has pulled them into JVs. SU and MU don't contribute much outside of their home countries and I don't believe they have JVs with anyone. The other carriers are small potatoes. Whatever resources KL dedicates to alliances are most certainly going into JV planning, and 90% of its customers will rarely use other carriers. Further, KL cannot discuss things with other carriers nearly as extensively as they can with JV partners due to antitrust concerns, so planning with them will always be limited. I would say that DL-AF-KL really only need AM, KE and MU to be in the picture at this point, and arguably, they don't need MU. LA may come around someday and join ST, but they really don't have to. I would say the global players are going to stop putting time and energy into their alliances and will eventually wind up with a core of carriers that they partner with, and these carriers may change whichever way the wind blows.

I thought MU has a JV with AF/KL? It also has a JV with QF and another one announced with JL :-)
 
klkla
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:42 pm

I don't think SkyTeam is any better shape or worse shape than the other two alliances.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:57 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
While alliances have definitely waned in importance from the early days of the '00s, I'm not sure why you believe one is at any more/less risk than the other two.

I too question why Skyteam is singled out. OneWorld has lost SAA. All three alliances will have surviving US and European partners. The immunity if the JVs is key.

Lightsaber
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LTCM
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:58 pm

klkla wrote:
I don't think SkyTeam is any better shape or worse shape than the other two alliances.


Exactly. People are misunderstanding the kl-af news. Just because they admitted the risk doesn't change it. All the airlines in all the alliances are facing similar problems
 
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American 767
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:06 pm

lightsaber wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
While alliances have definitely waned in importance from the early days of the '00s, I'm not sure why you believe one is at any more/less risk than the other two.

I too question why Skyteam is singled out. OneWorld has lost SAA. All three alliances will have surviving US and European partners. The immunity if the JVs is key.

Lightsaber


SAA was never a member of One World, although there was a time when AA and SA did codeshare on US-South Africa flights but that was in the mid 90s before the One World alliance was founded. SAA went to Star.
Ben Soriano
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
While alliances have definitely waned in importance from the early days of the '00s, I'm not sure why you believe one is at any more/less risk than the other two.

I too question why Skyteam is singled out. OneWorld has lost SAA. All three alliances will have surviving US and European partners. The immunity if the JVs is key.

Lightsaber


Small correction but SAA was in Star alliance, most likely the best coming out of the this.

Now if your wondering why I singled out Skyteam it’s because of the all the members currently undergoing either financial issues or restructuring. Now I’m not saying this won’t plague other alliances but Star Alliance is almost simply too big to fail and Oneworld carriers haven’t expressed much displeasure as the Skyteam carriers have.
 
AMP44
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:16 pm

There's many of AF-KLM partners that are not in any alliance: Air Corsica, Air Mauritius, Aircalin, Bangkok Airways, GOL, TAAG, Virgin Atlantic, and WestJet. I don't see Air Corsica, Bangkok Airways and GOL joining.
 
afgeneral
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:18 pm

there will likely continue to be 3 alliances as long as there are 3 main legacy carriers in the US

if either Delta/United/AA merge with each other (unlikely) then we might see one of the alliances collapsing
 
RvA
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:21 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
With KL and AF enduring some troubles, KL is already exploring options of a life without AF and the Skyteam alliance. VS is not a member of Skyteam but does work closely with the alliance but VS is ready to go under. Skyteam is already at risk of losing two European members. Alitalia is also set to leave the alliance. Is the future of the alliance more joint-venture oriented or will new members be attracted?


KL exploring life without AF or Skyteam? Do you have sources for this that are not just media saying they “heard” this from “insiders”? This is sure is one gossipy industry :)
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:25 pm

RvA wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
With KL and AF enduring some troubles, KL is already exploring options of a life without AF and the Skyteam alliance. VS is not a member of Skyteam but does work closely with the alliance but VS is ready to go under. Skyteam is already at risk of losing two European members. Alitalia is also set to leave the alliance. Is the future of the alliance more joint-venture oriented or will new members be attracted?


KL exploring life without AF or Skyteam? Do you have sources for this that are not just media saying they “heard” this from “insiders”? This is sure is one gossipy industry :)


Have you not seen the other thread yet?
 
RvA
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:37 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
RvA wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
With KL and AF enduring some troubles, KL is already exploring options of a life without AF and the Skyteam alliance. VS is not a member of Skyteam but does work closely with the alliance but VS is ready to go under. Skyteam is already at risk of losing two European members. Alitalia is also set to leave the alliance. Is the future of the alliance more joint-venture oriented or will new members be attracted?


KL exploring life without AF or Skyteam? Do you have sources for this that are not just media saying they “heard” this from “insiders”? This is sure is one gossipy industry :)


Have you not seen the other thread yet?


Did I miss KLM or AF make a public statement? Shoot let me go look
 
Thibault973
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:38 pm

usdcaguy wrote:
The strongest players in ST remain DL-AF-KL-AM-KE, and they are more cohesive because DL has pulled them into JVs. SU and MU don't contribute much outside of their home countries and I don't believe they have JVs with anyone.


MU does have a JV with AFKL + they own 8,8% of Air France-KLM and have a seat at their board of directors.

On a side note AFKL also has a JV with CZ and MF altho I don't how much longer that one will last.
 
VSMUT
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:57 pm

IMO, Skyteam is easily the most convenient alliance of the three big ones. The members tend to be more average than Oneworld and Star Alliance, but the benefits for card holders are way more standardized and fairly applied across all member airlines.
As an example, you don't get those internal Lufthansa v Singapore fights that result in barely any points earned on certain airlines. On Skyteam, the points you earn are fairly consistant across the board.

Nicknuzzii wrote:
RvA wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
With KL and AF enduring some troubles, KL is already exploring options of a life without AF and the Skyteam alliance. VS is not a member of Skyteam but does work closely with the alliance but VS is ready to go under. Skyteam is already at risk of losing two European members. Alitalia is also set to leave the alliance. Is the future of the alliance more joint-venture oriented or will new members be attracted?


KL exploring life without AF or Skyteam? Do you have sources for this that are not just media saying they “heard” this from “insiders”? This is sure is one gossipy industry :)


Have you not seen the other thread yet?


This site has a small group of fanatical IAG fans who are frothing at their mouthes every time there is even the slightest gist of an issue at AF-KLM. Take that discussion with a grain of salt.


usdcaguy wrote:
I'm thinking KL would not want to be in any alliance involving BA or LH, unless they were to become part of IAG or the LH Group, and I don't see that happening. The strongest players in ST remain DL-AF-KL-AM-KE, and they are more cohesive because DL has pulled them into JVs. SU and MU don't contribute much outside of their home countries and I don't believe they have JVs with anyone. The other carriers are small potatoes. Whatever resources KL dedicates to alliances are most certainly going into JV planning, and 90% of its customers will rarely use other carriers. Further, KL cannot discuss things with other carriers nearly as extensively as they can with JV partners due to antitrust concerns, so planning with them will always be limited. I would say that DL-AF-KL really only need AM, KE and MU to be in the picture at this point, and arguably, they don't need MU. LA may come around someday and join ST, but they really don't have to. I would say the global players are going to stop putting time and energy into their alliances and will eventually wind up with a core of carriers that they partner with, and these carriers may change whichever way the wind blows.


You are viewing Skyteam with a very US centric perspective there. As a European I just don't see how Aeromexico is anything but a fringe member, while Aeroflot is a strong partner that contributes a lot with an extensive network and easy connections between them and AF-KLM. KLM also routes way more traffic into Asia via China Eastern than on Korean Airlines, for some reason ;)
 
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lightsaber
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:58 pm

RvA wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
RvA wrote:

KL exploring life without AF or Skyteam? Do you have sources for this that are not just media saying they “heard” this from “insiders”? This is sure is one gossipy industry :)


Have you not seen the other thread yet?


Did I miss KLM or AF make a public statement? Shoot let me go look

A link to the other thread for reference. The Dutch government put conditions on the loan that end KLM from financing the syndicate until repaid:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1445279

Am I the only one thinking Skyteam wouldn't change much if KLM/AF split?

Lightsaber
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RvA
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:16 pm

lightsaber wrote:
RvA wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

Have you not seen the other thread yet?


Did I miss KLM or AF make a public statement? Shoot let me go look

A link to the other thread for reference. The Dutch government put conditions on the loan that end KLM from financing the syndicate until repaid:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1445279

Am I the only one thinking Skyteam wouldn't change much if KLM/AF split?

Lightsaber


Thanks. The article in the OP is behind a paywall but I still somehow missed the part where they (actual AFKL and not reporters) are seriously discussing splitting AF KLM up?
 
JAMBOJET
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:28 pm

klkla wrote:
I don't think SkyTeam is any better shape or worse shape than the other two alliances.

https://viewfromthewing.com/delta-ceo-s ... -carriers/

When Delta's CEO says there's little value in Skyteam, that does seem to make Skyteam in worse shape than the other two. I guess AAB said something similar about OneWorld, but he doesn't seem to have followed through with it and, instead, has bought portions of many OW airlines and strengthened QR's relationship with AA.

Bastian's comments were long before Coronavirus though. Regardless of the AF-KL relationship, I don't really see KL leaving the Delta and AF-KL Joint venture. It sounds like the worst case is a 3-way Joint venture between AF, KL, and Delta instead (and VS if they're still around in the same capacity). It's hard to imagine KLM getting the equivalent connecting feed from AA or UA as they do from Delta.

FinnAir is in the BA/IB-AA joint venture despite not being a part of IAG. There's certainly precedent for 3-way JVs and a lot of incentives all around for KL to stay within skyteam and the Delta JV with AF.
 
kavok
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:55 pm

Honest question: If DL somehow managed to get ahold of all/most of the VS slots from LHR, would things really be that different (network wise) if VS then went under and DL flew the same routes using their own metal?

Obviously I hope that doesn’t happen, and I don’t mean to sound callous as I would feel especially bad for all the jobs that would be lost at VS. But from a pure network perspective, DL/WS could then fly all the routes VS does today from LHR excluding the 3 or 4 remaining VS routes to places outside North America. DL could also sell a few slots to WS to operate some of the other Canadian routes they can’t fly. What I am saying is yes the VS soft product would go away, and it might be a bit harder with the UK point of sale, but in reality DL could operate most of VS’s network on their own metal if they got their LHR slots.
Last edited by kavok on Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:02 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
I singled out Skyteam it’s because of the all the members currently undergoing either financial issues or restructuring.

Um, what airline can you name that is NOT currently "undergoing financial issues".....?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:09 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
I singled out Skyteam it’s because of the all the members currently undergoing either financial issues or restructuring.

Um, what airline can you name that is NOT currently "undergoing financial issues".....?


The the sentence after that before twisting my words...
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:15 pm

JAMBOJET wrote:
When Delta's CEO says there's little value in Skyteam, that does seem to make Skyteam in worse shape than the other two. I guess AAB said something similar about OneWorld, but he doesn't seem to have followed through with it and, instead, has bought portions of many OW airlines and strengthened QR's relationship with AA.

Your statement is that SkyTeam is "in worse shape" because an executive said something negative.......

.......then you go on to state that an equivalent exec did the same thing about another alliance, but showed confidence by buying stakes in fellow alliance members; all while ignoring (or not knowing?) that DL also bought stakes in its alliance members as well.



Nicknuzzii wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
I singled out Skyteam it’s because of the all the members currently undergoing either financial issues or restructuring.

Um, what airline can you name that is NOT currently "undergoing financial issues".....?

The the sentence after that before twisting my words...

Not sure you quite understand that copy/pasting exactly what you wrote, as you wrote it, is not akin to "twisting your words"




And quite frankly, I did you a favor by focusing on that, as opposed to your following sentence.
But if you insist:

Nicknuzzii wrote:
but Star Alliance is almost simply too big to fail and

Even if one were to take this ridiculous statement at face value..... um, how is having 7 more members than the next largest alliance (many of whom are redundant to other regional members) render Star "almost too big to fail?"




Nicknuzzii wrote:
Oneworld carriers haven’t expressed much displeasure as the Skyteam carriers have

Remind me when publicly-expressed non-GAAP statements were predictive of airline performance stability? I'll wait.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
strfyr51
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:33 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
JAMBOJET wrote:
When Delta's CEO says there's little value in Skyteam, that does seem to make Skyteam in worse shape than the other two. I guess AAB said something similar about OneWorld, but he doesn't seem to have followed through with it and, instead, has bought portions of many OW airlines and strengthened QR's relationship with AA.

Your statement is that SkyTeam is "in worse shape" because an executive said something negative.......

.......then you go on to state that an equivalent exec did the same thing about another alliance, but showed confidence by buying stakes in fellow alliance members; all while ignoring (or not knowing?) that DL also bought stakes in its alliance members as well.



Nicknuzzii wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Um, what airline can you name that is NOT currently "undergoing financial issues".....?

The the sentence after that before twisting my words...

Not sure you quite understand that copy/pasting exactly what you wrote, as you wrote it, is not akin to "twisting your words"




And quite frankly, I did you a favor by focusing on that, as opposed to your following sentence.
But if you insist:

Nicknuzzii wrote:
but Star Alliance is almost simply too big to fail and

Even if one were to take this ridiculous statement at face value..... um, how is having 7 more members than the next largest alliance (many of whom are redundant to other regional members) render Star "almost too big to fail?"




Nicknuzzii wrote:
Oneworld carriers haven’t expressed much displeasure as the Skyteam carriers have

Remind me when publicly-expressed non-GAAP statements were predictive of airline performance stability? I'll wait.


Unfortunately? Most if not all of this thread is conjecture and speculation, and I doubt any is based on actual fact. If we're going to post innuendos? Then let's just say that up front..
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:36 pm

Again you chose to cut out my full statement in which I included how all carriers are going through hardships.

The difference in size may only be 7 members but those 7 members make Star Alliance over 25% larger...
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:00 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
The difference in size may only be 7 members but those 7 members make Star Alliance over 25% larger...

So what?

That doesn't in any way explain how they could be "almost too big to fail"... considering that you can knock out half of Star's members on any given continent, and still have very little geographical gap in coverage by its remaining members.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:05 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
The difference in size may only be 7 members but those 7 members make Star Alliance over 25% larger...

So what?

That doesn't in any way explain how they could be "almost too big to fail"... considering that you can knock out half of Star's members on any given continent, and still have very little geographical gap in coverage by its remaining members.


You literally just explained it for yourself.
 
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usdcaguy
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:24 am

VSMUT wrote:
You are viewing Skyteam with a very US centric perspective there. As a European I just don't see how Aeromexico is anything but a fringe member, while Aeroflot is a strong partner that contributes a lot with an extensive network and easy connections between them and AF-KLM. KLM also routes way more traffic into Asia via China Eastern than on Korean Airlines, for some reason ;)


That's because AF/KL do not need a partner in Asia for international transit passengers while DL does. ICN is far enough north and east to be a good connecting point for travel from the US to cities all over China as well as other markets in SE Asia. There is also more VFR traffic between the US and Korea than there is between Europe and Korea.

Meanwhile, I understand that SU and MU may cooperate with AF/KL, but they are not considered premium carriers among frequent flyers. That may change some day and in my view they offer a competitive product, but they are not yet preferred out of the US and Western Europe by those traveling on business unless they are the only nonstop or offer service to a domestic destination that the others do not serve.
 
JAMBOJET
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:27 am

LAX772LR wrote:
JAMBOJET wrote:
When Delta's CEO says there's little value in Skyteam, that does seem to make Skyteam in worse shape than the other two. I guess AAB said something similar about OneWorld, but he doesn't seem to have followed through with it and, instead, has bought portions of many OW airlines and strengthened QR's relationship with AA.

Your statement is that SkyTeam is "in worse shape" because an executive said something negative.......

.......then you go on to state that an equivalent exec did the same thing about another alliance, but showed confidence by buying stakes in fellow alliance members; all while ignoring (or not knowing?) that DL also bought stakes in its alliance members as well.

QR's stakes have mostly all been in current Oneworld members (LA was in OW at the time). Delta's have and have not been in skyteam members: AF-KL, VS, AM, LA, and KE. They also have two JVs with non-Skyteam members: WS and VA.
At no point has Delta made any attempt to bring VS, LA, WS, or VA into Skyteam. Instead, their CEO goes out and says Skyteam provides no value. That alone should be enough to be obvious how Delta feels about Skyteam if Bastian's comments weren't enough.

Sometimes it's best to just be quiet and not comment. The CEO of Delta, arguably Skyteam's most important member, said Skyteam had little value. He's backed Delta's money up with that stance by aligning with valuable skyteam members and non members and making zero attempt to bring anyone into Skyteam.

AAB says everything and has made clear with Qatar's (the country) money how obvious his reversal on that stance is.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:37 am

No, they are not going away. DL, MU, KE, VN are all strong members!
 
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Antaras
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:43 am

Ziyulu wrote:
No, they are not going away. DL, MU, KE, VN are all strong members!

VN is surviving well in the pandemic. Seems like it is one of rare carriers who still have enough money to buy a new bunch of aircraft.
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Can anyone confirm that VN has a JV with AF?
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jordanh
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:29 am

JAMBOJET wrote:
...their CEO goes out and says Skyteam provides no value. That alone should be enough to be obvious how Delta feels about Skyteam if Bastian's comments weren't enough.


Is that really what he said? Or did he say:

JAMBOJET wrote:
The CEO of Delta, arguably Skyteam's most important member, said Skyteam had little value.



Actually, he didn't exactly say either. What he said was:

"SkyTeam, of which Delta is a part, hasn’t “brought a lot of great value to customers..[or] to member airlines” and so they’re trying to create their “own international network of carriers” with Delta “as the centerpiece.”

That "network" includes many SkyTeam airlines, but also includes other valuable members. While SkyTeam alone may not have brought Delta "a lot of great value", it clearly remains an important part of their network plans.


https://viewfromthewing.com/delta-ceo-s ... -carriers/
 
A320FlyGuy
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:49 am

American 767 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
While alliances have definitely waned in importance from the early days of the '00s, I'm not sure why you believe one is at any more/less risk than the other two.

I too question why Skyteam is singled out. OneWorld has lost SAA. All three alliances will have surviving US and European partners. The immunity if the JVs is key.

Lightsaber


SAA was never a member of One World, although there was a time when AA and SA did codeshare on US-South Africa flights but that was in the mid 90s before the One World alliance was founded. SAA went to Star.


It's oneworld - one word and no capitalization.
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Antaras
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:53 am

A320FlyGuy wrote:
American 767 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I too question why Skyteam is singled out. OneWorld has lost SAA. All three alliances will have surviving US and European partners. The immunity if the JVs is key.

Lightsaber


SAA was never a member of One World, although there was a time when AA and SA did codeshare on US-South Africa flights but that was in the mid 90s before the One World alliance was founded. SAA went to Star.


It's oneworld - one word and no capitalization.

oneworld.
Bolded "one"
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xwb777
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:59 am

I see that in the future, alliances will have a very bright future. In the future, airlines will choose to partner up and enter to joint ventures with the airlines they select and choose rather than entering alliances.
 
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:43 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
I singled out Skyteam it’s because of the all the members currently undergoing either financial issues or restructuring.

Um, what airline can you name that is NOT currently "undergoing financial issues".....?

Air Koryo?
 
eurotrader85
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:30 am

lightsaber wrote:
RvA wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

Have you not seen the other thread yet?


Did I miss KLM or AF make a public statement? Shoot let me go look

A link to the other thread for reference. The Dutch government put conditions on the loan that end KLM from financing the syndicate until repaid:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1445279

Am I the only one thinking Skyteam wouldn't change much if KLM/AF split?

Lightsaber


You are not, but that is because the alliance system works well for KL IMO, so still being a member post a break-up with AF would still be a satisfactory outcome for the company.

This said I do tend to agree with the author's point. Out of the three alliances, ST has always been the weakest and that stress is starting to show:

1) DL have publicly said ST is secondary for them going forwards, hence why there was no plan for VS to join and neither for LA, just for LA to leave OW and focus on cooperation with DL.

2) AZ, whom you would have thought would have more to gain from their position, now openly questioning whether to stay.

3) UX, whatever form an IAG takeover eventually looks like will eventually mean being integrated into IB and OW, and is a big loss to the ST for Europe-Latin America connections.

4) CZ, leaving was a big blow to one of the ST's big selling points, its connectivity in China.

Acknowledged nobody is going through a good time in the industry atm, but compared to the other two alliances, the important core grouping, is not as strong at ST as they are at OW/*A, and thus if that loses interest where is the future?
 
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:02 am

eurotrader85 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
RvA wrote:

Did I miss KLM or AF make a public statement? Shoot let me go look

A link to the other thread for reference. The Dutch government put conditions on the loan that end KLM from financing the syndicate until repaid:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1445279

Am I the only one thinking Skyteam wouldn't change much if KLM/AF split?

Lightsaber


You are not, but that is because the alliance system works well for KL IMO, so still being a member post a break-up with AF would still be a satisfactory outcome for the company.

This said I do tend to agree with the author's point. Out of the three alliances, ST has always been the weakest and that stress is starting to show:

1) DL have publicly said ST is secondary for them going forwards, hence why there was no plan for VS to join and neither for LA, just for LA to leave OW and focus on cooperation with DL.

2) AZ, whom you would have thought would have more to gain from their position, now openly questioning whether to stay.

3) UX, whatever form an IAG takeover eventually looks like will eventually mean being integrated into IB and OW, and is a big loss to the ST for Europe-Latin America connections.

4) CZ, leaving was a big blow to one of the ST's big selling points, its connectivity in China.

Acknowledged nobody is going through a good time in the industry atm, but compared to the other two alliances, the important core grouping, is not as strong at ST as they are at OW/*A, and thus if that loses interest where is the future?


Spot on! I would like to add that in addition to the recent exits; every year, we hear some member questioning the point of staying in SkyTeam (RO, KQ, SU are recent ones that come to my mind). Of course, there is DL that proactively sets out ‘real’ partners from dummy partners. Most members do not even have any meaningful partnership. For example - does DL even interline with Xiamen Air? Their only US partner is AA... At the very least, most Star and oneworld members have decent interline rates. The biggest joke was of course when CZ, MU, MF and CI were all in the same alliance.
 
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:28 am

American 767 wrote:

SAA was never a member of One World, although there was a time when AA and SA did codeshare on US-South Africa flights but that was in the mid 90s before the One World alliance was founded. SAA went to Star.



Interesting. I wonder... Do you know if that Codeshare was before during or after that IAD-JNB USAfrica project? I know those planes came from AA & IIRC, AA were pretty unreasonable about not changing configurations, etc...

Anyway, I recall SAA being somewhat brutal WRT competition as well.
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:39 am

Another issue for them is the uncertainty over Tarom. Ok, they don't have the best network but at least they offered some coverage to SkyTeam in the Balkans. Maybe it's time for SkyTeam to start courting Air Serbia. They are currently in expansion mode and they cover all of Balkans and they have started consolidating their position in southern Russia with destinations such as Krasnodar and Rostov. They could play a nice and useful role for SkyTeam.
 
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:48 am

I would say this situation has saved skyteam or at least bought them some time. All airlines will be rebuilding here. They cannot handle the planning and logistics of breaking up with skyteam right now. Ain't gonna happen.

AF/KLM breaking up is totally different then skyteam breaking up.
 
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:54 am

eurotrader85 wrote:
You are not, but that is because the alliance system works well for KL IMO, so still being a member post a break-up with AF would still be a satisfactory outcome for the company.

This said I do tend to agree with the author's point. Out of the three alliances, ST has always been the weakest and that stress is starting to show:

1) DL have publicly said ST is secondary for them going forwards, hence why there was no plan for VS to join and neither for LA, just for LA to leave OW and focus on cooperation with DL.

2) AZ, whom you would have thought would have more to gain from their position, now openly questioning whether to stay.

3) UX, whatever form an IAG takeover eventually looks like will eventually mean being integrated into IB and OW, and is a big loss to the ST for Europe-Latin America connections.

4) CZ, leaving was a big blow to one of the ST's big selling points, its connectivity in China.


I would say OneWorld is weaker, but that may just be because they have very little presence where I live and work. That's a point that seems to affect the opinions on alliances for many, but an alliance isn't worthless just because it isn't strong where you live.

1) Delta's statement was from before the crisis. With cutdowns and less passengers to go around, cooperation through alliances is going to be more important going forward.

2) Alitalia doesn't really give the alliance anything that other members can't do as well. A bunch of domestic Italian flights and some minor destinations perhaps, but all the big places see regular flights by KLM and Air France, and Delta has an extensive network to the major Italian airports. In fact, pretty much every Skyteam airline except Aeromexico, Garuda, Vietnam Airlines and Xiamen serves Italy.

3) That is true, but SkyTeam isn't completely eradicated from South America. There is still Aeromexico and Aerolineas Argentinas. Delta can fire back with LATAM JVs. KLM and AF have a bunch of Europe-South America routes, as does Delta. In the grand scheme of things, Air Europa wasn't a big player to begin with.

4) They still have China Eastern and Xiamen Air. The former actually flies to more destinations than China Southern.
 
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Antaras
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:44 am

Blerg wrote:
Another issue for them is the uncertainty over Tarom. Ok, they don't have the best network but at least they offered some coverage to SkyTeam in the Balkans. Maybe it's time for SkyTeam to start courting Air Serbia. They are currently in expansion mode and they cover all of Balkans and they have started consolidating their position in southern Russia with destinations such as Krasnodar and Rostov. They could play a nice and useful role for SkyTeam.

To be honest, Tarom stands out of all other ST members.
It has small fleet, the routes network... well besides ten domestic routes, it has a number of international routes serving EU places which are mostly served by other ST member. In other world, Tarom brings little network benefit to other ST members.

The existence of Tarom in Skyteam is...doubtful, at least with me.
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Embajador3
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:07 am

Antaras wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Another issue for them is the uncertainty over Tarom. Ok, they don't have the best network but at least they offered some coverage to SkyTeam in the Balkans. Maybe it's time for SkyTeam to start courting Air Serbia. They are currently in expansion mode and they cover all of Balkans and they have started consolidating their position in southern Russia with destinations such as Krasnodar and Rostov. They could play a nice and useful role for SkyTeam.

To be honest, Tarom stands out of all other ST members.
It has small fleet, the routes network... well besides ten domestic routes, it has a number of international routes serving EU places which are mostly served by other ST member. In other world, Tarom brings little network benefit to other ST members.

The existence of Tarom in Skyteam is...doubtful, at least with me.


What about OK? Sure it was a founding member of ST, but its network offers very little to the alliance. Czech Airlines (PRG) and Tarom (OTP) are dwarves surrounded by many giants (OS - VIE, LH - MUC - FRA & TK - IST).
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Blerg
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:39 pm

Embajador3 wrote:
Antaras wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Another issue for them is the uncertainty over Tarom. Ok, they don't have the best network but at least they offered some coverage to SkyTeam in the Balkans. Maybe it's time for SkyTeam to start courting Air Serbia. They are currently in expansion mode and they cover all of Balkans and they have started consolidating their position in southern Russia with destinations such as Krasnodar and Rostov. They could play a nice and useful role for SkyTeam.

To be honest, Tarom stands out of all other ST members.
It has small fleet, the routes network... well besides ten domestic routes, it has a number of international routes serving EU places which are mostly served by other ST member. In other world, Tarom brings little network benefit to other ST members.

The existence of Tarom in Skyteam is...doubtful, at least with me.


What about OK? Sure it was a founding member of ST, but its network offers very little to the alliance. Czech Airlines (PRG) and Tarom (OTP) are dwarves surrounded by many giants (OS - VIE, LH - MUC - FRA & TK - IST).


I think OK as a major international player won't happen, it's too late now and they are sandwiched between OS and LO. On top of that, their business model is kind of confused and messy right now. Tarom did have some ambitions to grow some years ago. They planned Zagreb and Skopje, launched seasonal flights to Dubrovnik... and then it all failed. More recently they tried it again in the other direction with flights to Odessa, Yerevan, Tbilisi... and those didn't work out either. Their European and regional network is too weak, OTP is not fit to be a hub (terms of capacity and overall passenger experience) and they just can't keep up with competition.

That's where JU would be a much better fit especially as it could offer a nice alternative to Austrian Airlines and Vienna. JU's Balkan network is pretty solid.
 
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American 767
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:13 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
American 767 wrote:

SAA was never a member of One World, although there was a time when AA and SA did codeshare on US-South Africa flights but that was in the mid 90s before the One World alliance was founded. SAA went to Star.



Interesting. I wonder... Do you know if that Codeshare was before during or after that IAD-JNB USAfrica project? I know those planes came from AA & IIRC, AA were pretty unreasonable about not changing configurations, etc...

Anyway, I recall SAA being somewhat brutal WRT competition as well.


The AA/SA codeshare deal started in 1994/95, when US Africa was flying out of IAD with MD-11 aircraft. It ended in the late 90s.
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usdcaguy
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:23 pm

Blerg wrote:
Embajador3 wrote:
Antaras wrote:
To be honest, Tarom stands out of all other ST members.
It has small fleet, the routes network... well besides ten domestic routes, it has a number of international routes serving EU places which are mostly served by other ST member. In other world, Tarom brings little network benefit to other ST members.

The existence of Tarom in Skyteam is...doubtful, at least with me.


What about OK? Sure it was a founding member of ST, but its network offers very little to the alliance. Czech Airlines (PRG) and Tarom (OTP) are dwarves surrounded by many giants (OS - VIE, LH - MUC - FRA & TK - IST).


I think OK as a major international player won't happen, it's too late now and they are sandwiched between OS and LO. On top of that, their business model is kind of confused and messy right now. Tarom did have some ambitions to grow some years ago. They planned Zagreb and Skopje, launched seasonal flights to Dubrovnik... and then it all failed. More recently they tried it again in the other direction with flights to Odessa, Yerevan, Tbilisi... and those didn't work out either. Their European and regional network is too weak, OTP is not fit to be a hub (terms of capacity and overall passenger experience) and they just can't keep up with competition.

That's where JU would be a much better fit especially as it could offer a nice alternative to Austrian Airlines and Vienna. JU's Balkan network is pretty solid.


OTP definitely needs more capacity and air bridges. RO also struggles with its bad image from the 90’s when in many places it was considered the “cheap” carrier and not the preferred one. They do offer good service and a competitive product now, but this has not translated into profitable expansion, likely due to its hub issues.

It really is a shame that OK hasn’t been more aggressive at expanding, but it faces a lot of LCC competition on short-haul routes. Years ago, DL was flying OK* codeshares year-round on JFK-PRG and seasonal ATL-PRG that would have given them feed, but those flights didn’t stick around except for seasonal JFK-PRG. The OK-operated flight to JFK has never come back, either.

Adding JU to ST might be a good idea, but it offers little service to markets that aren’t currently served by other ST partners. Interior ex-Yugoslav markets aren’t exactly a goldmine, either. After AZ leaves the alliance, I JU might make a better fit. I’m not sure JU would want to be in an alliance dominated by an American carrier, however.
 
Blerg
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Re: The future of Skyteam - is there any?

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:13 pm

usdcaguy wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Embajador3 wrote:

What about OK? Sure it was a founding member of ST, but its network offers very little to the alliance. Czech Airlines (PRG) and Tarom (OTP) are dwarves surrounded by many giants (OS - VIE, LH - MUC - FRA & TK - IST).


I think OK as a major international player won't happen, it's too late now and they are sandwiched between OS and LO. On top of that, their business model is kind of confused and messy right now. Tarom did have some ambitions to grow some years ago. They planned Zagreb and Skopje, launched seasonal flights to Dubrovnik... and then it all failed. More recently they tried it again in the other direction with flights to Odessa, Yerevan, Tbilisi... and those didn't work out either. Their European and regional network is too weak, OTP is not fit to be a hub (terms of capacity and overall passenger experience) and they just can't keep up with competition.

That's where JU would be a much better fit especially as it could offer a nice alternative to Austrian Airlines and Vienna. JU's Balkan network is pretty solid.


OTP definitely needs more capacity and air bridges. RO also struggles with its bad image from the 90’s when in many places it was considered the “cheap” carrier and not the preferred one. They do offer good service and a competitive product now, but this has not translated into profitable expansion, likely due to its hub issues.

It really is a shame that OK hasn’t been more aggressive at expanding, but it faces a lot of LCC competition on short-haul routes. Years ago, DL was flying OK* codeshares year-round on JFK-PRG and seasonal ATL-PRG that would have given them feed, but those flights didn’t stick around except for seasonal JFK-PRG. The OK-operated flight to JFK has never come back, either.

Adding JU to ST might be a good idea, but it offers little service to markets that aren’t currently served by other ST partners. Interior ex-Yugoslav markets aren’t exactly a goldmine, either. After AZ leaves the alliance, I JU might make a better fit. I’m not sure JU would want to be in an alliance dominated by an American carrier, however.


Well Air Serbia isn't all about ex-Yugoslav routes, they have quite a decent network beyond this region for an airline their size. This summer they were supposed to have the following destinations in the Balkans:

OTP 11x
SOF 7x
TIA 14x
IST 7x
SKG 14x
ATH 14x

And then add to that the ex-YU destinations: LJU, ZAG, PUY, RJK, SPU, DBV, ZAD, SJJ, BNX, TGD, TIV and SKP.

They also fly to Larnaca, Beirut, Cairo, Krasnodar and this summer they seem to be going ahead with the introduction of Amman, Rostov, Lviv and Kishinev.

So I do believe that they do have a nice niche market that SkyTeam could profit from.

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