Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 7
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 1127
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:51 pm

Bhoy wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
...the UK could not allow its only full service carrier to fail.

Is that the full service carrier that charges £5 for a cup of tea and scone? :duck:


Good point well made! :D
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 1127
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:59 pm

LS83 wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
Toinou wrote:
I don't think that the situation is as different as you put it. The "protection" in place in countries you listed (and many others) is mostly about keeping the airlines alive but will not allow them to keep all their workforce as demand will weaken for, at least, some rather long time. The fact airlines in other countries did not already made similar announcements just indicates that they are waiting to do it (either because they want to see how things are moving or because someone's thinking it may not be the right moment for such news) and some already did, like SAS. I don't know where you seem to see such a difference.


I agree that companies (including airlines) will emerge differently to how they entered the Covid crisis.

I don’t think it’s likely that the German government would even consider the circa 10bn euro package for Lufthansa if it was justified on grounds of laying off workers (because the government would be paying twice - first for LH to lay them off, and second For the German equivalent of Jobseeker’s Allowance).

I also don’t think airlines are delaying announcements because they are waiting for the right moment. I agree that are waiting to see how things shake out before deciding how many staff they can get rid of - part of that equation is clearly going to entail how much government support they can access.

Finally, the situation in the UK is very different to overseas as follows.


UK - the is currently no bespoke support for the industry.

USA - $25bn bespoke support Including for DL, UA, AA.

France - €7bn support for AF.

Netherlands - €2-4bn support for KL.

Germany - €10bn support for LH.

There are similar stories in Italy, Austria, and Norway.

This is why I see such a difference - and it will get worse before it gets better. The unions should (and are) ask why BA has taken this step at this time.


What stake do the respective governments have in these national airlines compared to the British government and BA?


I don’t know for all of them - I’m sure it is relatively easy to find but might not be clear cut.

For example, I am pretty sure that all the US airlines and Lufthansa are privately owned. I think the French government has a small (about 15%) stake in Air France but I’m not sure if that is in Air France itself it the joint topco which owns AF and KLM.

Of course, the position of Alitalia is well documented.

There is a situation where (I assume for self interested commercial reasons) I think BA are trying to block assistance to UK carriers for long enough that it’s competitors can fail and it will therefore emerge with a more dominant position. As I’ve said above, if it came to it, I don’t see the UK government allowing BA to fail.
 
Galwayman
Posts: 901
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:20 am

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:59 pm

Eagleboy wrote:
Galwayman wrote:
...............
Yes strongly suspect it will be aimed at the ‘heritage’ crews with the higher salaries . Difficult to see what the unions can do , no point in industrial action at the moment

Odd to see you getting involved here.
You previously stated that you have zero interest in cabin crew and actually feel that there is no use for them in the industry......



And clearly IAG agree with me , can’t wait for the EI proposals ....
 
flyjay123
Posts: 143
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:07 am

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:02 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
Bhoy wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
...the UK could not allow its only full service carrier to fail.

Is that the full service carrier that charges £5 for a cup of tea and scone? :duck:


Good point well made! :D


Yes, and the carrier that makes a significant profit LOL!
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 1127
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:14 pm

flyjay123 wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
Bhoy wrote:
Is that the full service carrier that charges £5 for a cup of tea and scone? :duck:


Good point well made! :D


Yes, and the carrier that makes a significant profit LOL!


The parent just booked a loss of €535m for Q1 of 2020 (for comparison they made a profit of €135 in the same period last year).

This is problematic because Q1 was relatively unaffected by Covid and the loss was down to poor fuel hedging.

The BoB is financially immaterial when you look at these numbers, but from a reputation perspective it may not be.
 
Westerwaelder
Posts: 240
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:27 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:27 pm

Bhoy wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
...the UK could not allow its only full service carrier to fail.

Is that the full service carrier that charges £5 for a cup of tea and scone? :duck:


The one that let's you travel from LHR, LGW and LCY instead of making you go to Satan's crotch aka LTN and STN. The food they served in the last couple of years on short haul flights was not worth having. I prefer to pay for something decent if I'm hungry or eat at the airport. The overall experience despite not giving you a free snack that the dog would refuse is still decent. Not necessarily better than U2 or FR for everyone but that depends on what you value.
 
Baexecutive
Posts: 629
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 9:29 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:32 pm

Bhoy wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
...the UK could not allow its only full service carrier to fail.

Is that the full service carrier that charges £5 for a cup of tea and scone? :duck:


Really?
 
CometOrbit
Posts: 43
Joined: Sat May 24, 2008 5:30 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:38 pm

LS83 wrote:
What stake do the respective governments have in these national airlines compared to the British government and BA?


According to Wiki, for AF-KLM, the French and Dutch governments both own 14.3%.
Delta and China Eastern airlines both own 8.8%.

Lufthansa Group is wholly privately owned as far as I can see.
Wiki lists German investors at 68%, US 14%, with smaller percentages in Luxembourg, UK and Ireland.

IAG is also private, with 25% owned by Qatar Airways.
 
Bhoy
Posts: 548
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 1:50 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:39 pm

Westerwaelder wrote:
Bhoy wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
...the UK could not allow its only full service carrier to fail.

Is that the full service carrier that charges £5 for a cup of tea and scone? :duck:


The one that let's you travel from LHR, LGW and LCY instead of making you go to Satan's crotch aka LTN and STN. The food they served in the last couple of years on short haul flights was not worth having. I prefer to pay for something decent if I'm hungry or eat at the airport. The overall experience despite not giving you a free snack that the dog would refuse is still decent. Not necessarily better than U2 or FR for everyone but that depends on what you value.
this may come as a shock to you, but not everyone in the UK lives in London.
 
User avatar
garpd
Posts: 2530
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 9:29 am

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:53 pm

Bhoy wrote:
Is that the full service carrier that charges £5 for a cup of tea and scone? :duck:


Baexecutive wrote:
Really?


Yip, but on short haul only.
If you can't go couple of hours without a scone, you have issues!

Their long haul product is still full service and on my many flights with them over the last 10 years, I've never paid a penny on board for food or drink.
arpdesign.wordpress.com
 
Westerwaelder
Posts: 240
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:27 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:15 pm

Bhoy wrote:
Westerwaelder wrote:
Bhoy wrote:
Is that the full service carrier that charges £5 for a cup of tea and scone? :duck:


The one that let's you travel from LHR, LGW and LCY instead of making you go to Satan's crotch aka LTN and STN. The food they served in the last couple of years on short haul flights was not worth having. I prefer to pay for something decent if I'm hungry or eat at the airport. The overall experience despite not giving you a free snack that the dog would refuse is still decent. Not necessarily better than U2 or FR for everyone but that depends on what you value.
this may come as a shock to you, but not everyone in the UK lives in London.


I am aware of there is supposedly something outside the M25. But seriously, you mentioned paying for food on short haul on BA. Where would you fly to other than London on BA short haul from a non London airport? If you experience short haul on BA, it is either from or to London (if you discount the few CityFlyer services during the summer but then again food and drink are free on them). So what BA flights were you talking about where you pay for food but don't end up or start in London?
 
BAorAB
Posts: 31
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 10:11 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:09 pm

I just confirmed with a friend in London who works at BA Waterside HQ. 12,000 jobs will be at BA alone, hence why Cruz made the announcement. Cruz does not lead IAG only BA. Looks to be approx. 720 pilots, with focus on legacy contracts and 3000 cabin crew with high priority on "world wide" cabin crew contracts. These two cost areas are where BA see their biggest disadvantage against the ME3 and budget carriers. Of course Alex Cruz just found the prefect opportunity he's been wishing for to get rid of the 180K a year pilots and 40K a year cabin crew that work 50% contracts! Sad times, however the reality of the current situation.
 
BHXLOVER
Posts: 220
Joined: Mon Feb 23, 2015 2:20 pm

BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:26 pm

BA may not reopen at Gatwick once pandemic passes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52489013
 
eurotrader85
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:45 pm

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:52 pm

Just read this, WOW. While I get the idea to consolidate all operations at LHR, LGW was very profitable for the business unit, and obviously did a load of holiday destinations which there was little market for at more expensive LHR.

Acknowledge market is going to be depressed post pandemic but losing all those slots? It depends how you see the long term curve getting back to 2019 levels but they might never get back in at the hub depending who/if takes the slots. How any airline can make long term plans atm is crazy. There is no precedent, and it could be completely different to any model drawn up with cataclysmic long term consequences. Super Machiavellian comment for the debate, but do the planners see the long term build back to 2019 levels being post runway 3 at LHR when they could have moved the operations across anyway?

Awful for the pilots and crew involved. Thoughts go out.
 
Breathe
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:06 pm

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:53 pm

Very sad news for the staff if this is the case.

Mainly leisure routes based a LGW, and in the current climate it wouldn't be a surprise to see a lot of them being cut and the profitable ones being moved to LHR.

No BA at LGW is something just a few months ago would have been unimaginable. What incredible (aviation) times we live in!
 
giblets
Posts: 153
Joined: Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:34 am

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:00 pm

Sad news, but interesting at the same, time, clearly they will be a much smaller operation for a few years from now, but do they see a number of slots opening up also? Assume they are not worried about that for at least a couple of years.
146, ATR72, Q400, Saab 340, PA-46 Jetprop, Jetstream, E175/195, 707/727/737/747/757/767/777, DC-3/9/10, MD-11/80, A300/310/319/320/321/330/340/350/380 Tristar, BAC 1-11, Trident, Chipmunk, Bell 206/222, Chinook, Puma, Cessna 172, Fokker 70, 100, SRN4!
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1020
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:02 pm

Breathe wrote:
Very sad news for the staff if this is the case.

Mainly leisure routes based a LGW, and in the current climate it wouldn't be a surprise to see a lot of them being cut and the profitable ones being moved to LHR.

No BA at LGW is something just a few months ago would have been unimaginable. What incredible (aviation) times we live in!



If they do choose to consolidate at LHR, as opposed to simply dropping the LGW destinations, IMO MCO, BGI and BDA are the most likely to make the transition. I could also see ANU, PUJ, KIN and UVF surviving as well. I'm iffy on TPA with MCO just up the I-4 and possible connections on AA through MIA and CLT.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 648
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:06 pm

eurotrader85 wrote:
Just read this, WOW. While I get the idea to consolidate all operations at LHR, LGW was very profitable for the business unit, and obviously did a load of holiday destinations which there was little market for at more expensive LHR.


I thought LGW was barely profitable after a lot of cuts. They don't fly much premium routes but Sun and Sands routes. Profitability in LGW was a big problem until recently. Especially short haul in LGW (I believe Long Haul to certain Caribbean destination was profitable).

Now the question is what would happen to the previous LGW routes. I can see BA move Long Haul routes to LHR and possibly chop one or two marginal ones.

What what would happen to the LGW long hail fleet which would have a different configuration compare with the LHR and the latest business suite products.

I just don't see BA retain many of the LGW short haul routes from LHR.
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 1127
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:06 pm

eurotrader85 wrote:
do the planners see the long term build back to 2019 levels being post runway 3 at LHR when they could have moved the operations across anyway?


Runway 3 at LHR was dead even before Covid struck.

Nothing is certain in life (the present crisis should tell us this much) but if runway 3 happens in the next 50 years I would be astounded.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 648
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:11 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
Breathe wrote:
Very sad news for the staff if this is the case.

Mainly leisure routes based a LGW, and in the current climate it wouldn't be a surprise to see a lot of them being cut and the profitable ones being moved to LHR.

No BA at LGW is something just a few months ago would have been unimaginable. What incredible (aviation) times we live in!



If they do choose to consolidate at LHR, as opposed to simply dropping the LGW destinations, IMO MCO, BGI and BDA are the most likely to make the transition. I could also see ANU, PUJ, KIN and UVF surviving as well. I'm iffy on TPA with MCO just up the I-4 and possible connections on AA through MIA and CLT.


TPA happen to be a very nice airport to fly into, much easier than MCO. The flight could be downgraded to B788 if necessary. I think as long as Norwegian or Lufthansa continue to fly there, BA will continue as well. I would rather BA to keep TPA although like you said it is likely to be gone if things are not improving. That is being said, maybe MCO can be flown by B747 in mid-J configuration from LHR with reduction in frequencies?
 
User avatar
Dahlgardo
Posts: 466
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:46 am

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:27 pm

BHXLOVER wrote:
BA may not reopen at Gatwick once pandemic passes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52489013


That certainly puts the MAX commitment into question.
leave your nines at home and bring your skills to the battle
 
Westerwaelder
Posts: 240
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:27 pm

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:31 pm

eurotrader85 wrote:
Just read this, WOW. While I get the idea to consolidate all operations at LHR, LGW was very profitable for the business unit, and obviously did a load of holiday destinations which there was little market for at more expensive LHR.

Acknowledge market is going to be depressed post pandemic but losing all those slots? It depends how you see the long term curve getting back to 2019 levels but they might never get back in at the hub depending who/if takes the slots. How any airline can make long term plans atm is crazy. There is no precedent, and it could be completely different to any model drawn up with cataclysmic long term consequences. Super Machiavellian comment for the debate, but do the planners see the long term build back to 2019 levels being post runway 3 at LHR when they could have moved the operations across anyway?

Awful for the pilots and crew involved. Thoughts go out.


I don't think there will be a queue for LGW slots in the near term. BA are shrinking, U2 will not stay the same size, Norwegian is halting most flights for a year... have I missed someone big?
 
eurotrader85
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:45 pm

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:32 pm

chonetsao wrote:
eurotrader85 wrote:
Just read this, WOW. While I get the idea to consolidate all operations at LHR, LGW was very profitable for the business unit, and obviously did a load of holiday destinations which there was little market for at more expensive LHR.


I thought LGW was barely profitable after a lot of cuts. They don't fly much premium routes but Sun and Sands routes. Profitability in LGW was a big problem until recently. Especially short haul in LGW (I believe Long Haul to certain Caribbean destination was profitable).

Now the question is what would happen to the previous LGW routes. I can see BA move Long Haul routes to LHR and possibly chop one or two marginal ones.

What what would happen to the LGW long hail fleet which would have a different configuration compare with the LHR and the latest business suite products.

I just don't see BA retain many of the LGW short haul routes from LHR.


My understanding was the other way round, short haul at LHR was the bit of a problem child, but of course needed for connection feed. LGWs lower cost base meant it was a profitable point to point base across the board.

What BA's WB fleet looks like post this is anyone's guess at the moment, but you could say that about anyone. Only thing is certain is the 744s are disappearing as quickly as possible. After that guess it depends what routes migrate across. I have to say, I find this a little rash. While I get the staff cost side (obviously awful for all those concerned) and need to cut costs in the present environment, with the moratorium on losing slots due to lack of use in place at the moment, wouldn't it be wise to see how the dust settles before closing bases and operations all together? In effect you have a free option on the slots during this crisis. The one thing to come out of all of this is how quickly the situation is constantly changing, and while now it truly looks doom and gloom and little prospect for anything in the world ever again, there will eventually be an end to this, and it could be more sudden than people are visualising-who knows? But why make decisions you don't need to now when you might be more informed of the environment later down the line when you really need to make that decision.
 
BCA2005
Posts: 177
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:56 am

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:32 pm

Anyone have any idea or guesses of which current LHR longhaul routes are the weakest performing and/or likely to be cut?
 
GBL
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:14 am

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:33 pm

And at the moment its not definite that Virgin or Norwegian will survive so that's another load of slots that may become available
 
eurotrader85
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:45 pm

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:34 pm

Dahlgardo wrote:
BHXLOVER wrote:
BA may not reopen at Gatwick once pandemic passes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52489013


That certainly puts the MAX commitment into question.


Yep, that ones not happening given it was earmarked for LGW operations, and there is going to be a lot of spare NB fleet floating around the group.
 
bendewire
Posts: 122
Joined: Tue May 10, 2011 10:26 pm

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:36 pm

Whilst the Memo allegedly came from BA I would be shocked if BA pulled out of Gatwick even in these hard times an idiot would not give arch rivals a massive foothold in the same business, Easy Jet and Ryanair would snap up slots and effectively close BA's european network completely even at Heathrow BA would take a hit, I'm guessing this is a leverage tool regarding voluntary redundancies,
 
USAirALB
Posts: 2302
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:40 pm

I would argue that many routes flown ex-LGW are simply redundant at this stage (such as LGW-AMS/EDI/VCE).

I would also assume that most of the long-haul route network would make the transition. I think most of their Caribbean network is probably safe and could easily moved, as most flights are simply tag-ons, rather than flown direct from LGW. MCO and MRU are also likely safe as well, but I see TPA and TAB dropped.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
eurotrader85
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:45 pm

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:47 pm

bendewire wrote:
Whilst the Memo allegedly came from BA I would be shocked if BA pulled out of Gatwick even in these hard times an idiot would not give arch rivals a massive foothold in the same business, Easy Jet and Ryanair would snap up slots and effectively close BA's european network completely even at Heathrow BA would take a hit, I'm guessing this is a leverage tool regarding voluntary redundancies,


I agree with this, even if EZY are a bit on the back foot themselves at the moment, the infrastructure isn't getting any bigger at LGW and people will take the slots (even if others become available if VS or DY collapse). Unfortunately for BALPA the one bargaining chip they usually have, to go on strike, isn't a bargaining chip at the moment.
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 1127
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:48 pm

eurotrader85 wrote:
wouldn't it be wise to see how the dust settles before closing bases and operations all together?

...

while now it truly looks doom and gloom and little prospect for anything in the world ever again, there will eventually be an end to this, and it could be more sudden than people are visualising-who knows?.


I think (and this is my speculation) that BA are holding off from seeking state aid for as long as possible in order to: (1) get rid of their most expensive staff; and (2) allow competitors to fail first knowing that if they make it through without state aid they are in a strong position (lower costs, less competition, no state interference) but if not there is likely the safety net of state aid as it is highly unlikely the UK government would allow BA to fail.
 
User avatar
Momo1435
Posts: 1164
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:33 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:53 pm

Could it be that the LGW leisure traffic will just be transferred from BA to Level and Vueling? With those 2 taking over the most profitable European routes. This way it could just be an internal reorganization within IAG, with BA and IB focusing on the business market and long haul and the having the other taking over the majority of leisure traffic in the group.
 
JumboMaiden
Posts: 41
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2017 9:28 am

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:57 pm

One of their (LGW) crewmours (we crew are famous for rumor mongering but sometimes there's heat under the smoke) a while back was that ?IAG/Waterside? had wanted to have a Level/Vueling operation from LGW so perhaps this is an opportunity for them to do all the things that had been thought about anyway but the obstacles in the way before all of this grief were too difficult to get around. Are LGW included in the 12000?
 
a350lover
Topic Author
Posts: 874
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:21 am

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:58 pm

I think BA is approaching this whole crisis being a bit too "pessimistic". Probably that responds to a strategy to gain support both from inside and outside the organization. I understand the whole business of BA is highly dependent on international travel demand (which has now vanished), but loosing the whole structure of their second hub in London considering how constraint Heathrow is...

I can't imagine IAG without a plan to quickly move backwards towards LGW once this crisis is over.

I suspected IAG announcements were due after all big groups in Europe made theirs' in recent weeks. However, don't you see more questionable businesses across the whole group to be put into consideration in current times? (i.e LEVEL Europe, LEVEL ORY, LEVEL/IB BCN Long haul....).
 
skipness1E
Posts: 4813
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:21 pm

Closing BA LGW just means the long haul routes moved to LHR to protect slots and selected short haul support long haul connections once more. As for LGW-GLA/EDI/AMS where they compete to some extent with LHR, like LCY, I suspect they’ll be dropped. LGW pretty much is easyJet now anyway, as D8 have retrenched.
 
FCAFLYBOY
Posts: 686
Joined: Sun Nov 05, 2006 5:03 am

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:28 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
eurotrader85 wrote:
wouldn't it be wise to see how the dust settles before closing bases and operations all together?

...

while now it truly looks doom and gloom and little prospect for anything in the world ever again, there will eventually be an end to this, and it could be more sudden than people are visualising-who knows?.


I think (and this is my speculation) that BA are holding off from seeking state aid for as long as possible in order to: (1) get rid of their most expensive staff; and (2) allow competitors to fail first knowing that if they make it through without state aid they are in a strong position (lower costs, less competition, no state interference) but if not there is likely the safety net of state aid as it is highly unlikely the UK government would allow BA to fail.


Bingo - it's precisely this IMO. Wait for VS to collapse, which is getting close, and BA are watching like vultures. they'll probably pick off a few 789's and 350's too, on a good deal from their lessor, given no one really wants new WB aircraft now anyway. Then we'll see BA back at LGW to re-establish itself, after they pick up a raft of VS's slots at LHR. Whilst LHR has limited availability of slots at good times, that problem disappears for BA if VS folds, they'll be choosy and pick the ones they want only, and further expand at LHR. The Caribbean routes can run from LHR for a while at odd times, there's no need to have perfect flight times leaving at 09:00-12:00 in the morning if you are offering the only direct flight to a long-haul sun destination direct from London. Then when the time is right, back to Gatwick with a sweet deal to re-establish a base for the current routes, on good terms as LGW will be a relative ghost town for some time to come, especially if Norwegian fold too.
 
RvA
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:32 pm

JumboMaiden wrote:
One of their (LGW) crewmours (we crew are famous for rumor mongering but sometimes there's heat under the smoke) a while back was that ?IAG/Waterside? had wanted to have a Level/Vueling operation from LGW so perhaps this is an opportunity for them to do all the things that had been thought about anyway but the obstacles in the way before all of this grief were too difficult to get around. Are LGW included in the 12000?


This is exactly what I thought when I read this. Transition LGW over to Level, Vueling or maybe a UK flavoured brand based on Level (assuming in the future they may need to (re)activate a UK AOC). That could mean lower cost base and focus BA only on LHR. Kind of like LH did when they focused only on their primary hubs and left DUS long haul (and non FRA/MUC) to Eurowings.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1020
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:15 pm

USAirALB wrote:
I would argue that many routes flown ex-LGW are simply redundant at this stage (such as LGW-AMS/EDI/VCE).

I would also assume that most of the long-haul route network would make the transition. I think most of their Caribbean network is probably safe and could easily moved, as most flights are simply tag-ons, rather than flown direct from LGW. MCO and MRU are also likely safe as well, but I see TPA and TAB dropped.

I don’t see the current tag-ons surviving. At least not initially. If leisure traffic drops as I suspect it will, instead of ANU or UVF being “strong enough” to carry their tag destinations, they may have to consolidate those in order to make flights worthwhile. In essence, instead of flying LGW-ANU-PLS, they may now have to fly LGW-ANU-UVF as demand to secondary tag destinations (GND, PLS, POS, SKB, TAB) may no longer be worth it and demand to the primary tag destinations drop where they can be consolidated.
 
AAMDanny
Posts: 322
Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 4:06 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:22 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:

AAMDanny wrote:
IMHO this is the situation BA needed to spearhead the changes they wanted to create 10 years ago with the old legacy contract Cabin Crew. The inefficient operation of 3 separate Cabin Crew fleets in operation at LHR can finally merge and synergise to create a leaner more robust operational Cabin Crew workforce. It's something BA have wanted to do for years.


BA were embroiled in industrial relations issues when the Mixed Fleet grade was introduced and again within the last few years over their pay and conditions. I suspect the unions may be wise to any attempts to do this . I don't know if BA have the appetite to open that Pandora's box again.

.


Things are different now, BA are not making the Millions and Billions of profit. Whenever they tried to streamline LHR Cabin Crew Operations they have been halted by the TU's. Having 3 separate fleets of CC is not the most efficient way of working, and the fact the Airline is going to HAVE to adapt and are facing a substantial operating loss, the TU's protecting the legacy Crew's won't have the leverage they have always had when BA have been highly profitable. The legacy crews are on substantially more than the new 'mixed fleet' Cabin Crew. Now would be the perfect time to open Pandora's box. Because by the looks of it, BA will have to run a tighter ship on the opposite side of this, and doing it then would cost more.
 
jomur
Posts: 353
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:36 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:20 pm

skipness1E wrote:
Closing BA LGW just means the long haul routes moved to LHR to protect slots and selected short haul support long haul connections once more. As for LGW-GLA/EDI/AMS where they compete to some extent with LHR, like LCY, I suspect they’ll be dropped. LGW pretty much is easyJet now anyway, as D8 have retrenched.


Most of the pax on the GLA/EDI to LGW routes are connecting passengers to the long haul flights, both BA and VS ones. I wouldn't say they competed with the flights to LHR.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 648
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:27 pm

JumboMaiden wrote:
One of their (LGW) crewmours (we crew are famous for rumor mongering but sometimes there's heat under the smoke) a while back was that ?IAG/Waterside? had wanted to have a Level/Vueling operation from LGW so perhaps this is an opportunity for them to do all the things that had been thought about anyway but the obstacles in the way before all of this grief were too difficult to get around. Are LGW included in the 12000?


That would be me as a customer to say goodbye to Gatwick airport in IAG. Won't fly Vueling if you paid me. Level? No thanks neither.
 
Canuck600
Posts: 289
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:24 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:36 pm

How do people expect them to be getting rid of their most expensive staff when layoffs start at the bottom of the seniority list? They would have to off the senior people a buyout/really good severance package for them to leave? Or are union contracts Europe very different then they are in Canada?
 
Sokes
Posts: 1638
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:04 pm

Canuck600 wrote:
How do people expect them to be getting rid of their most expensive staff when layoffs start at the bottom of the seniority list? They would have to off the senior people a buyout/really good severance package for them to leave? Or are union contracts Europe very different then they are in Canada?

Can you expand on this? Is this a legally binding agreement with unions? When will this agreement expire?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Canuck600
Posts: 289
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:24 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:13 pm

From what I've seen/heard even in non union places it's always the most junior people that get let go first so I was wondering how people seem to think that they can pick & choose who they lay off?
 
GDB
Posts: 13758
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:16 pm

Dahlgardo wrote:
BHXLOVER wrote:
BA may not reopen at Gatwick once pandemic passes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52489013


That certainly puts the MAX commitment into question.


Always a decision many of us thought deeply wrong headed, albeit in a different world to the one we are in now.
That's not a commentary on BA at LGW, much less the staff who must be very worried.
 
Johnwaynebobbet
Posts: 209
Joined: Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:25 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:21 pm

Canuck600 wrote:
How do people expect them to be getting rid of their most expensive staff when layoffs start at the bottom of the seniority list? They would have to off the senior people a buyout/really good severance package for them to leave? Or are union contracts Europe very different then they are in Canada?


That is not the criteria they will be using.
 
User avatar
usdcaguy
Posts: 1522
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2004 12:41 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:24 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
usdcaguy wrote:
747megatop wrote:
It's going to take more than a year for it to recover. The Vaccine needs to come and be available to the general public in large numbers.


Perhaps that's true, but it's not clear whether "redundancy" in this case means putting more people on furlough or completely shutting them out. Regardless, the unions should be very careful not to give in too quickly. Early-outs, leaves of absence, etc. should be considered before discussing any layoffs. This is not a time to subject people to an uncertain future when many of them may already be sick.

Not sure if this is something lost in translation from British to American English but making someone or a position redundant is the equivalent of a permanent layoff.


Thanks for the clarification!
 
GDB
Posts: 13758
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:26 pm

Canuck600 wrote:
How do people expect them to be getting rid of their most expensive staff when layoffs start at the bottom of the seniority list? They would have to off the senior people a buyout/really good severance package for them to leave? Or are union contracts Europe very different then they are in Canada?


I have had very limited, informal communications with colleagues taking time out to contact.
While nothing is confirmed, none of the above seems to be on the table, for now.
Likely across the board, across departments and bases, with as much consultation as possible, though at least one Cabin Crew member contacted the BBC to say they feel betrayed.
While I understand the feeling if they are LGW based, it's far too early to comment.
The airline are laying out the worst case.
Though when we are barely flying severance packages surely are off the table.
 
mattyfitzg
Posts: 263
Joined: Sun Sep 04, 2016 4:50 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:17 pm

I have a feeling that BA Cityflyer might actually benefit from this unfortunate set of events we see ourselves in.
Cityflyer are not part of the announced BA staff cuts, and have no plans to make anybody redundant, yet anyway.
With BA looking to consolidate/retreat it’s Mainline fleet back to LHR and close off LGW, and with BA Management telling BALPA that they wish to edit the scope clause (Part of the pilots contracts which states something along the lines of Cityflyer not being allowed aircraft over 100 seats, and not flying to LHR/LGW), I could see Cityflyer making gains possibly with routes out of Gatwick, or perhaps a long shot at even LHR if they really want to consolidate the fleets?
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Fri May 01, 2020 12:29 am

From my perspective the western aviation industry is more likely to be affected long-term than the Asian aviation industry because East Asians have the history of SARS to compare with (e.g. knowing everything will be fine for them) especially since the pandemic didn't hit so hard in Asia despite its initial discovery in China.
 
airzona11
Posts: 1753
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: BA could make up to 12.000 employees redundant

Fri May 01, 2020 12:37 am

airhansa wrote:
From my perspective the western aviation industry is more likely to be affected long-term than the Asian aviation industry because East Asians have the history of SARS to compare with (e.g. knowing everything will be fine for them) especially since the pandemic didn't hit so hard in Asia despite its initial discovery in China.


I think it will be interesting to see what the rest of the year looks like. As you mentioned SARS was a limited depression of the markets. If that is the case in the EU and North America (and there is just as much data to say this will not be catastrophic as there is to say it will be), structurally the economies can recover quickly.

That is also not to say airline might use this time to clean the balance sheets and right size, making it only tangentially related to COVID.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 7

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos