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Sdmccray1984
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American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:16 am

Does anyone have any idea what American Airlines “is” at JFK Airport? Are they truly a HUB there? Their route network and schedule frequencies at JFK are strange, with very little domestic feed for prestigious routes such as Buenos Aires-Ezeiza and Milan-Malpensa. Just wondering if anyone understands how AA views JFK.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:23 am

It views JFK more as a destination rather than an origin.
 
Sancho99504
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Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2005 2:44 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:34 am

Sdmccray1984 wrote:
Does anyone have any idea what American Airlines “is” at JFK Airport? Are they truly a HUB there? Their route network and schedule frequencies at JFK are strange, with very little domestic feed for prestigious routes such as Buenos Aires-Ezeiza and Milan-Malpensa. Just wondering if anyone understands how AA views JFK.



JFK was a decent sized connecting hub years ago. With the high cost of operating there, they slowly shifted to focusing on O&D with some higher yield connections here and there. JFK has been evolving into a large, O&D based, focus city.
kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:59 am

Very high costs, lots of competition on everything , and other cities are way cheaper to connect people thru and less delayed.

They serve NY more because its a large business city and important for their network than anything else. It's not a connection hub, but a place they have to serve for the network.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:35 am

Sdmccray1984 wrote:
Does anyone have any idea what American Airlines “is” at JFK Airport?


Before the merger with US, New York City was a "cornerstone" hub for AA. LGA was and of course still is preferred by most pax (the higher yielding ones, anyway) whenever possible, so that "hub" handled most mainline and regional flying alike to domestic and transborder destinations throughout the Central and Eastern time zones. JFK complemented the LGA operation with a decent selection of transcon and Caribbean services, and even became AA's primary transatlantic gateway when many ORD-Europe services were reduced to seasonal or cut entirely. However, the split operation between perimeter-restricted LGA and JFK was and probably still is very off-putting to connecting travelers. I grew up in the Chicago area, and my parents were gracious enough to take me to Rome as a high school graduation present in 2006. B6 had not yet added its JFK-ORD flights, so at that time all of the flights between Chicago and NYC went into LGA or EWR rather than JFK. AA was happy to get us between Chicago and Rome on a through itinerary - so long as we transferred ourselves between JFK and LGA each way. Suffice to say we didn't even think of taking that gamble - and we can't have been the only ones to quickly choose a more palatable routing (in our case, via EWR).

Then there was the AA/US merger, which brought even more LGA slots into the fold - as well as a nearby fortress hub at PHL. In spite of an excellent economy and anchoring the world class Terminal 8 facility at JFK, AA's hub appeared to be in decline. Popular longstanding flights like JFK-MCO and JFK-SJU were cut entirely, while others like JFK-SAN were "suspended" and may never come back. American Eagle appeared to be more of a JFK slot squatting exercise than anything else. Mind you, all of those cuts happened before the pandemic wreaked havoc on Europe, New York, the aviation industry, and the economy at large. In May, JFK will offer just 11 daily flights to BDA, CLT, LAX, MIA and PHX. On June 4th, JFK-EZE/GRU/LHR are scheduled to resume - 3 routes that UA used to fly from JFK (without much success, given their incredibly weak position overall in the New York market vs. other carriers). I wonder if AA could be destined for a very similar fate to that of UA at JFK. When push comes to shove, it can't be very profitable being third or fourth fiddle pretty much across the board.

Sdmccray1984 wrote:
Are they truly a HUB there?


Absolutely not. DL and B6 both now offer much more comprehensive hubs at JFK than AA does. There's also UA's extremely strong EWR hub, although that facility in New Jersey may have little appeal to many Long Island residents.

Sdmccray1984 wrote:
Their route network and schedule frequencies at JFK are strange, with very little domestic feed for prestigious routes such as Buenos Aires-Ezeiza and Milan-Malpensa. Just wondering if anyone understands how AA views JFK.


Sadly, Argentina's ongoing debt issues and the coronavirus hitting Milan as well as New York especially hard probably do not bode well for AA's JFK-EZE/MXP services. I imagine both of those routes, like most JFK and for that matter LGA flights, probably catered overwhelmingly to O&D pax. Even the most cursory internet search will reveal to travelers near and far how delay prone and generally unpopular both NYC airports are. Surely I can't be the only traveler that goes out of their way to avoid transiting through the likes of JFK whenever possible. You're much more likely to make your connection through, say, DTW or ATL than the likes of EWR and JFK.
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8025
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:50 am

Sancho99504 wrote:
Sdmccray1984 wrote:
Does anyone have any idea what American Airlines “is” at JFK Airport? Are they truly a HUB there? Their route network and schedule frequencies at JFK are strange, with very little domestic feed for prestigious routes such as Buenos Aires-Ezeiza and Milan-Malpensa. Just wondering if anyone understands how AA views JFK.


PHL hub for TATL connections - it has a domestic destination count JFK can't rival due to AA's limited JFK slots

MIA for Caribbean and South American connections

JFK for NYC O&D, as JFK is the country's biggest international airport by passenger count (JFK, 34 million; LAX, 26 million; MIA, 21 million; SFO, million; EWR 14 million - all rounded to nearest million for 12 months ended 6/19)

https://www.transportation.gov/policy/a ... TheReports
 
Brickell305
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:53 am

Well Argentina has banned international flights until Sep 1 so don’t expect a return to EZE from JFK any time soon.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1991
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:14 pm

Before deregulation and until the early 1980s, AA was headquartered in New York (HQ moved to DFW). There is a wide and incorrect perception that American was at one time something very big at JFK. That's not really the case though its footprint there has been larger in the past than what it was pre-COVID19.

JFK was for AA a major gateway to the Caribbean and a major transcontinental station for the airline. The Caribbean routes were slowly chipped away by the arrival of B6, which brought with it lower costs and some would argue better service and planes. JFK emerged as a TATL gateway for AA in the late 1980s with the addition of flights to ORY, FRA, LYS, and ZRH. LYS lasted but a few months. FRA was dropped by the early 1990s. ORY was shifted to CDG in the mid-2000s and remains in place (though it is suspended right now) because CDG is a big market for AA and its second biggest station in Europe after LHR. ZRH was moved to PHL in 2014 or 2015. The MAD, BCN, MXP and FCO routes are legacy TWA routes inherited by AA through its 2001 acquisition of Trans World Airlines. MXP, pre COVID19, actually carriers a good amount of business traffic in spite of DL/AZ and EK being in the market (Air Italy was also there for a time). FCO is a seasonal route that was actually extended for 2020 before it was dropped due to COVID19. It actually did well. The Latin America routes have always been strong performers for AA at JFK, specifically GRU and EZE because of cargo and AA's dominance of the Latin America market POS from the US and the region. JFK-GIG existed in the 1990s, was dropped, and returned as a year round service for a number of years before being relegated to seasonal service. On the TPAC front, AA operated JFK-NRT, shifted it to HND when that airport first opened up to US flights, but the time slots were not business-friendly and the route was axed after the global financial crisis in 2008. AA code shares with JL in the NYC-Tokyo market. Other routes that existed for a time and have been dropped include BRU, MAN (started in 1992, dropped in 1993, added back in 2008 and dropped in 2014), BHX, DUB, EDI (moved from PHL post merger and then moved back to PHL), CDG was once double daily. LHR was launched in 1992 when AA acquired TW's routes to LHR and today, AA/BA share revenue on the world's only $1BN route (pre COVID of course) and in spite of AA's smaller and reducing footprint at JFK, still dominates NYC-LON traffic).

American spent billions on T8 (ground was broken before 9/11 and the post-9/11 landscape for the industry resulted in the terminal not being fully built out to spec). AA resisted Chapter 11 post 9/11 far longer than it should have and had stubbornly high costs, and older fleet, and higher wages until it finally caved to Chapter 11 in 2011 but at that point, DL, B6, and UA were all much bigger in the NY market and AA's costs would not allow it to compete. The US merger was one of convenience and last resort, and gave AA a PHL hub where it had limited competition for TATL routes. JFK suddenly was redundant, expensive, and not worth the high costs to grow. In March 2019, AA shifted all JFK TATL and international long haul to the 777 type (77W for 2 x LHR, 1 x GRU) and 772 for everything else, upping cargo capacity and offering an arguably more consistent product and load factors and demand actually grew. Vasu Raja even said on a Q2 earnings call in 2019 that JFK had turned profitable for AA.

The post-COVID landscape is hard to figure out right now. AA will likely not grow at JFK and its footprint may even be smaller than the 78 daily flights it had until February/early March. The highest it ever was hovered around 120 daily departures. The notion though that AA will close JFK completely or be reduced to what UA was there until 2014 is ridiculous. AA has a significant corporate footprint in NYC and while its #4 in traffic, it is the #2 airline at LGA in terms of slot portfolio and the bean counters at AA are well aware of how idiotic it was for UA to decamp from JFK and consolidate at EWR and how much the regret having done that (again all pre COVID). The entire industry is facing its most challenging moment since 9/11 but the NY market remains the world's largest O&D one and when things settle down and the industry recovers, AA will still be at JFK, most likely at over 50 but less than 100 daily flights.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:20 pm

Also worth noting this topic of AA at JFK comes up all the time on Airliners.net.
 
tphuang
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:20 pm

AA with its high debt coming out of this will really shrink at NYC. A year from now, they will be less than 50 flights out of JFK and less than 120 flights at LGA. Mark my words. The idea that they can maintain 70+ flights is quite laughable when the entire industry is probably going to contract by at least 25% and international demand is going to be down even more than that.
 
jasoncrh
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:56 pm

Overall solid, but a little off on the Tokyo stuff. they did NOT stop Tokyo service in 2008/ financial crisis. AA was flying to Tokyo from JFK through 2011 or 2012. AA started service to Haneda from JFK in early 2011. For a brief time in 2011 they tried serving BOTH NRT and HND, but yes, the HND service eventually went away because the slots they could get at HND were not good. Eventually they left NYC-Tokyo entirely by 2012 or 2013.

Also - AA started JFK-LHR flights in 1991, not 1992.

Cointrin330 wrote:
Before deregulation and until the early 1980s, AA was headquartered in New York (HQ moved to DFW). There is a wide and incorrect perception that American was at one time something very big at JFK. That's not really the case though its footprint there has been larger in the past than what it was pre-COVID19.

JFK was for AA a major gateway to the Caribbean and a major transcontinental station for the airline. The Caribbean routes were slowly chipped away by the arrival of B6, which brought with it lower costs and some would argue better service and planes. JFK emerged as a TATL gateway for AA in the late 1980s with the addition of flights to ORY, FRA, LYS, and ZRH. LYS lasted but a few months. FRA was dropped by the early 1990s. ORY was shifted to CDG in the mid-2000s and remains in place (though it is suspended right now) because CDG is a big market for AA and its second biggest station in Europe after LHR. ZRH was moved to PHL in 2014 or 2015. The MAD, BCN, MXP and FCO routes are legacy TWA routes inherited by AA through its 2001 acquisition of Trans World Airlines. MXP, pre COVID19, actually carriers a good amount of business traffic in spite of DL/AZ and EK being in the market (Air Italy was also there for a time). FCO is a seasonal route that was actually extended for 2020 before it was dropped due to COVID19. It actually did well. The Latin America routes have always been strong performers for AA at JFK, specifically GRU and EZE because of cargo and AA's dominance of the Latin America market POS from the US and the region. JFK-GIG existed in the 1990s, was dropped, and returned as a year round service for a number of years before being relegated to seasonal service. On the TPAC front, AA operated JFK-NRT, shifted it to HND when that airport first opened up to US flights, but the time slots were not business-friendly and the route was axed after the global financial crisis in 2008. AA code shares with JL in the NYC-Tokyo market. Other routes that existed for a time and have been dropped include BRU, MAN (started in 1992, dropped in 1993, added back in 2008 and dropped in 2014), BHX, DUB, EDI (moved from PHL post merger and then moved back to PHL), CDG was once double daily. LHR was launched in 1992 when AA acquired TW's routes to LHR and today, AA/BA share revenue on the world's only $1BN route (pre COVID of course) and in spite of AA's smaller and reducing footprint at JFK, still dominates NYC-LON traffic).

American spent billions on T8 (ground was broken before 9/11 and the post-9/11 landscape for the industry resulted in the terminal not being fully built out to spec). AA resisted Chapter 11 post 9/11 far longer than it should have and had stubbornly high costs, and older fleet, and higher wages until it finally caved to Chapter 11 in 2011 but at that point, DL, B6, and UA were all much bigger in the NY market and AA's costs would not allow it to compete. The US merger was one of convenience and last resort, and gave AA a PHL hub where it had limited competition for TATL routes. JFK suddenly was redundant, expensive, and not worth the high costs to grow. In March 2019, AA shifted all JFK TATL and international long haul to the 777 type (77W for 2 x LHR, 1 x GRU) and 772 for everything else, upping cargo capacity and offering an arguably more consistent product and load factors and demand actually grew. Vasu Raja even said on a Q2 earnings call in 2019 that JFK had turned profitable for AA.

The post-COVID landscape is hard to figure out right now. AA will likely not grow at JFK and its footprint may even be smaller than the 78 daily flights it had until February/early March. The highest it ever was hovered around 120 daily departures. The notion though that AA will close JFK completely or be reduced to what UA was there until 2014 is ridiculous. AA has a significant corporate footprint in NYC and while its #4 in traffic, it is the #2 airline at LGA in terms of slot portfolio and the bean counters at AA are well aware of how idiotic it was for UA to decamp from JFK and consolidate at EWR and how much the regret having done that (again all pre COVID). The entire industry is facing its most challenging moment since 9/11 but the NY market remains the world's largest O&D one and when things settle down and the industry recovers, AA will still be at JFK, most likely at over 50 but less than 100 daily flights.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1991
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:53 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
Overall solid, but a little off on the Tokyo stuff. they did NOT stop Tokyo service in 2008/ financial crisis. AA was flying to Tokyo from JFK through 2011 or 2012. AA started service to Haneda from JFK in early 2011. For a brief time in 2011 they tried serving BOTH NRT and HND, but yes, the HND service eventually went away because the slots they could get at HND were not good. Eventually they left NYC-Tokyo entirely by 2012 or 2013.

Also - AA started JFK-LHR flights in 1991, not 1992.

Cointrin330 wrote:
Before deregulation and until the early 1980s, AA was headquartered in New York (HQ moved to DFW). There is a wide and incorrect perception that American was at one time something very big at JFK. That's not really the case though its footprint there has been larger in the past than what it was pre-COVID19.

JFK was for AA a major gateway to the Caribbean and a major transcontinental station for the airline. The Caribbean routes were slowly chipped away by the arrival of B6, which brought with it lower costs and some would argue better service and planes. JFK emerged as a TATL gateway for AA in the late 1980s with the addition of flights to ORY, FRA, LYS, and ZRH. LYS lasted but a few months. FRA was dropped by the early 1990s. ORY was shifted to CDG in the mid-2000s and remains in place (though it is suspended right now) because CDG is a big market for AA and its second biggest station in Europe after LHR. ZRH was moved to PHL in 2014 or 2015. The MAD, BCN, MXP and FCO routes are legacy TWA routes inherited by AA through its 2001 acquisition of Trans World Airlines. MXP, pre COVID19, actually carriers a good amount of business traffic in spite of DL/AZ and EK being in the market (Air Italy was also there for a time). FCO is a seasonal route that was actually extended for 2020 before it was dropped due to COVID19. It actually did well. The Latin America routes have always been strong performers for AA at JFK, specifically GRU and EZE because of cargo and AA's dominance of the Latin America market POS from the US and the region. JFK-GIG existed in the 1990s, was dropped, and returned as a year round service for a number of years before being relegated to seasonal service. On the TPAC front, AA operated JFK-NRT, shifted it to HND when that airport first opened up to US flights, but the time slots were not business-friendly and the route was axed after the global financial crisis in 2008. AA code shares with JL in the NYC-Tokyo market. Other routes that existed for a time and have been dropped include BRU, MAN (started in 1992, dropped in 1993, added back in 2008 and dropped in 2014), BHX, DUB, EDI (moved from PHL post merger and then moved back to PHL), CDG was once double daily. LHR was launched in 1992 when AA acquired TW's routes to LHR and today, AA/BA share revenue on the world's only $1BN route (pre COVID of course) and in spite of AA's smaller and reducing footprint at JFK, still dominates NYC-LON traffic).

American spent billions on T8 (ground was broken before 9/11 and the post-9/11 landscape for the industry resulted in the terminal not being fully built out to spec). AA resisted Chapter 11 post 9/11 far longer than it should have and had stubbornly high costs, and older fleet, and higher wages until it finally caved to Chapter 11 in 2011 but at that point, DL, B6, and UA were all much bigger in the NY market and AA's costs would not allow it to compete. The US merger was one of convenience and last resort, and gave AA a PHL hub where it had limited competition for TATL routes. JFK suddenly was redundant, expensive, and not worth the high costs to grow. In March 2019, AA shifted all JFK TATL and international long haul to the 777 type (77W for 2 x LHR, 1 x GRU) and 772 for everything else, upping cargo capacity and offering an arguably more consistent product and load factors and demand actually grew. Vasu Raja even said on a Q2 earnings call in 2019 that JFK had turned profitable for AA.

The post-COVID landscape is hard to figure out right now. AA will likely not grow at JFK and its footprint may even be smaller than the 78 daily flights it had until February/early March. The highest it ever was hovered around 120 daily departures. The notion though that AA will close JFK completely or be reduced to what UA was there until 2014 is ridiculous. AA has a significant corporate footprint in NYC and while its #4 in traffic, it is the #2 airline at LGA in terms of slot portfolio and the bean counters at AA are well aware of how idiotic it was for UA to decamp from JFK and consolidate at EWR and how much the regret having done that (again all pre COVID). The entire industry is facing its most challenging moment since 9/11 but the NY market remains the world's largest O&D one and when things settle down and the industry recovers, AA will still be at JFK, most likely at over 50 but less than 100 daily flights.


Correct on LHR. AA purchased TWA's route authorities to LHR in 1990 and the deal closed in early 1991. The first service began July 1 1991. On July 1 of 1991 AA began LHR with 3 x daily from JFK, 2 x daily from ORD, and one each from BOS and EWR to LHR. I believe that two of the 3 LHR flights from JFK were operated on the 747-SP initially. On July 20 of 1991, AA launched LAX-LHR and added a short-lived JFK-LGW flight as well. MIA moved from LGW to LHR on July 1. DFW was and remained 2 x daily to LGW until 2008. RDU operated to LGW as well until I think 2008.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1991
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:55 pm

tphuang wrote:
AA with its high debt coming out of this will really shrink at NYC. A year from now, they will be less than 50 flights out of JFK and less than 120 flights at LGA. Mark my words. The idea that they can maintain 70+ flights is quite laughable when the entire industry is probably going to contract by at least 25% and international demand is going to be down even more than that.


All 3 US Airlines will shrink in NYC, not just AA. I'd agree AA's JFK presence will shrink further as things normalize, but not so much at LGA to the levels you are talking about unless they can get waivers, which they likely will. AA is a strong #2 at LGA and it is a key asset for them. Of the US3, the one staring at the biggest financial vortex is probably UA, followed by AA, then DL.
Last edited by Cointrin330 on Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:05 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA with its high debt coming out of this will really shrink at NYC. A year from now, they will be less than 50 flights out of JFK and less than 120 flights at LGA. Mark my words. The idea that they can maintain 70+ flights is quite laughable when the entire industry is probably going to contract by at least 25% and international demand is going to be down even more than that.


All 3 US Airlines will shrink in NYC, not just AA.


Hopefully. EWR is way too reliant on UA.
Last edited by Nicknuzzii on Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:05 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA with its high debt coming out of this will really shrink at NYC. A year from now, they will be less than 50 flights out of JFK and less than 120 flights at LGA. Mark my words. The idea that they can maintain 70+ flights is quite laughable when the entire industry is probably going to contract by at least 25% and international demand is going to be down even more than that.


All 3 US Airlines will shrink in NYC, not just AA.


Yes, but AA will have to shrink the most. AA has the most debt and weakest point of sale from NYC, so will have to cut capacity at its worst performing hubs (NYC/LAX) more than anyone else. As much as I dislike DL, I think they will consolidate their position in NYC coming out of this.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:10 pm

tphuang wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA with its high debt coming out of this will really shrink at NYC. A year from now, they will be less than 50 flights out of JFK and less than 120 flights at LGA. Mark my words. The idea that they can maintain 70+ flights is quite laughable when the entire industry is probably going to contract by at least 25% and international demand is going to be down even more than that.


All 3 US Airlines will shrink in NYC, not just AA.


Yes, but AA will have to shrink the most. AA has the most debt and weakest point of sale from NYC, so will have to cut capacity at its worst performing hubs (NYC/LAX) more than anyone else. As much as I dislike DL, I think they will consolidate their position in NYC coming out of this.


AA is actually not that weak POS wise in NYC. I agree LAX as it stands for AA will not look the same going forward. In NYC, AA still has a strong FF base, and retains some very big corporate contracts to/from. I'd argue the airline that stands to lose a lot of ground in NYC is actually B6. It's the smallest profit wise, is more leisure geared than business.
 
tphuang
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:18 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:

All 3 US Airlines will shrink in NYC, not just AA.


Yes, but AA will have to shrink the most. AA has the most debt and weakest point of sale from NYC, so will have to cut capacity at its worst performing hubs (NYC/LAX) more than anyone else. As much as I dislike DL, I think they will consolidate their position in NYC coming out of this.


AA is actually not that weak POS wise in NYC. I agree LAX as it stands for AA will not look the same going forward. In NYC, AA still has a strong FF base, and retains some very big corporate contracts to/from. I'd argue the airline that stands to lose a lot of ground in NYC is actually B6. It's the smallest profit wise, is more leisure geared than business.


AA is the weakest in NYC if you have seen the yield data from past 2 years I've been posting. Their yields ratio on various routes they compete with DL/B6 dropped 10% in 2 years against their competitors. That's why they were forced out of some key markets like SEA/SAN/LAS/MCO. All of which indicates a signficantly reduced ff base.

B6 at JFK runs the highest margin of any airline in NYC.
 
Pi7472000
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:30 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA with its high debt coming out of this will really shrink at NYC. A year from now, they will be less than 50 flights out of JFK and less than 120 flights at LGA. Mark my words. The idea that they can maintain 70+ flights is quite laughable when the entire industry is probably going to contract by at least 25% and international demand is going to be down even more than that.


All 3 US Airlines will shrink in NYC, not just AA.


Hopefully. EWR is way too reliant on UA.


As long as AA stays small in NYC that is fine with me! AA has awful customer service, would prefer to see them shrink and make NYC a spoke and allow Delta and United for growth.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:34 pm

Sadly, stick a fork in them at JFK...they are done.

I said a downturn would do this.

High frequency to MIA CLT LAX. PHX (on some level) Token presence to ORD DFW. BOS DCA RDU on Eagle. Token presence to SFO. LHR CDG. Possibly one off leisure like CUN and STT.

40-50 flights.

B6, if they survive, will be well positioned for growth at JFK
 
Austin787
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:48 pm

Even before Covid-19, AA was reducing JFK. At this point, I see AA serving JFK from its other hubs. 4-6 flights to MIA, CLT, PHX, and LAX each. 1-2 flights to ORD and DFW. Maybe a few regional jet flights to PHL. All other flights dropped. 20-30 flights total.
 
tphuang
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:23 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Sadly, stick a fork in them at JFK...they are done.

I said a downturn would do this.

High frequency to MIA CLT LAX. PHX (on some level) Token presence to ORD DFW. BOS DCA RDU on Eagle. Token presence to SFO. LHR CDG. Possibly one off leisure like CUN and STT.

40-50 flights.

B6, if they survive, will be well positioned for growth at JFK


totally agreed. 40 to 50 flights. I'm also not convinced they will stick around on SFO. A321T in this economy seems to be too premium.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1145
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:27 pm

tphuang wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Sadly, stick a fork in them at JFK...they are done.

I said a downturn would do this.

High frequency to MIA CLT LAX. PHX (on some level) Token presence to ORD DFW. BOS DCA RDU on Eagle. Token presence to SFO. LHR CDG. Possibly one off leisure like CUN and STT.

40-50 flights.

B6, if they survive, will be well positioned for growth at JFK


totally agreed. 40 to 50 flights. I'm also not convinced they will stick around on SFO. A321T in this economy seems to be too premium.


The biggest difference between the previous downfalls and this are the unemployment claims. Most of the claims today are for restaurant workers and cashiers while compared to 2008 it was based much more on financial workers who tend to travel more. I think the 321T is here to stay.
 
Brickell305
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:27 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Sadly, stick a fork in them at JFK...they are done.

I said a downturn would do this.

High frequency to MIA CLT LAX. PHX (on some level) Token presence to ORD DFW. BOS DCA RDU on Eagle. Token presence to SFO. LHR CDG. Possibly one off leisure like CUN and STT.

40-50 flights.

B6, if they survive, will be well positioned for growth at JFK

I don't foresee AA dropping GRU or EZE as long as there is demand for NYC from those places. Those are both strong markets for AA and having an NYC nonstop solidifies their offerings in both cities. They’d likely be more inclined to drop CDG.
 
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airzim
Posts: 1441
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:28 pm

tphuang wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Yes, but AA will have to shrink the most. AA has the most debt and weakest point of sale from NYC, so will have to cut capacity at its worst performing hubs (NYC/LAX) more than anyone else. As much as I dislike DL, I think they will consolidate their position in NYC coming out of this.


AA is actually not that weak POS wise in NYC. I agree LAX as it stands for AA will not look the same going forward. In NYC, AA still has a strong FF base, and retains some very big corporate contracts to/from. I'd argue the airline that stands to lose a lot of ground in NYC is actually B6. It's the smallest profit wise, is more leisure geared than business.


AA is the weakest in NYC if you have seen the yield data from past 2 years I've been posting. Their yields ratio on various routes they compete with DL/B6 dropped 10% in 2 years against their competitors. That's why they were forced out of some key markets like SEA/SAN/LAS/MCO. All of which indicates a signficantly reduced ff base.

B6 at JFK runs the highest margin of any airline in NYC.


I tend to ignore your analysis given it's highly flawed, but I believe you use Average Fare for your claims. There is no way you can claim to prove yield or margin off average fare alone. In fact, no publicly available data proves any comparison between carriers given you're not privy to costs, corporate deals, network cost and revenue distribution, etc. There's simply too many variables to consider.
 
tphuang
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:06 pm

airzim wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:

AA is actually not that weak POS wise in NYC. I agree LAX as it stands for AA will not look the same going forward. In NYC, AA still has a strong FF base, and retains some very big corporate contracts to/from. I'd argue the airline that stands to lose a lot of ground in NYC is actually B6. It's the smallest profit wise, is more leisure geared than business.


AA is the weakest in NYC if you have seen the yield data from past 2 years I've been posting. Their yields ratio on various routes they compete with DL/B6 dropped 10% in 2 years against their competitors. That's why they were forced out of some key markets like SEA/SAN/LAS/MCO. All of which indicates a signficantly reduced ff base.

B6 at JFK runs the highest margin of any airline in NYC.


I tend to ignore your analysis given it's highly flawed, but I believe you use Average Fare for your claims. There is no way you can claim to prove yield or margin off average fare alone. In fact, no publicly available data proves any comparison between carriers given you're not privy to costs, corporate deals, network cost and revenue distribution, etc. There's simply too many variables to consider.

i use average fare, load factor and connection % + connection fares. You don't have to believe what I say. The fact that AA has dropped so many markets out of JFK should tell you everything. My analysis has been remarkably good at anticipating which routes get dropped on jetblue and southwest network. All these AA JFK markets that got dropped, I called them before it happened.
 
onwFan
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA with its high debt coming out of this will really shrink at NYC. A year from now, they will be less than 50 flights out of JFK and less than 120 flights at LGA. Mark my words. The idea that they can maintain 70+ flights is quite laughable when the entire industry is probably going to contract by at least 25% and international demand is going to be down even more than that.


All 3 US Airlines will shrink in NYC, not just AA.


Yes, but AA will have to shrink the most. AA has the most debt and weakest point of sale from NYC, so will have to cut capacity at its worst performing hubs (NYC/LAX) more than anyone else. As much as I dislike DL, I think they will consolidate their position in NYC coming out of this.


I think AA will remove all overlapping routes from LGA/JFK and consolidate LGA as their primary NYC hub. For the North East, have PHL as the gateway and LGA/DCA for O/D.

NYC is DL’s only hub in the North East. I cannot see their BOS ops coming back in this economy. DL’s split hub strategy at JFK/LGA is not going to particularly efficient either. If JFK is going to be as empty as people on here suggest, and DL is going to expand massively there, that has got to be at the expense of LGA, especially as recovery to prior levels is going to take years.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:23 pm

Cant use LGA as a primary hub

Perimeter, no international

US Air tried this...it was a disaster for them
 
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airzim
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
airzim wrote:
tphuang wrote:

AA is the weakest in NYC if you have seen the yield data from past 2 years I've been posting. Their yields ratio on various routes they compete with DL/B6 dropped 10% in 2 years against their competitors. That's why they were forced out of some key markets like SEA/SAN/LAS/MCO. All of which indicates a signficantly reduced ff base.

B6 at JFK runs the highest margin of any airline in NYC.


I tend to ignore your analysis given it's highly flawed, but I believe you use Average Fare for your claims. There is no way you can claim to prove yield or margin off average fare alone. In fact, no publicly available data proves any comparison between carriers given you're not privy to costs, corporate deals, network cost and revenue distribution, etc. There's simply too many variables to consider.

i use average fare, load factor and connection % + connection fares. You don't have to believe what I say. The fact that AA has dropped so many markets out of JFK should tell you everything. My analysis has been remarkably good at anticipating which routes get dropped on jetblue and southwest network. All these AA JFK markets that got dropped, I called them before it happened.


You use "yield" and "margin" way too liberally on your claim of analysis. You are proving neither. You might be just lucky, or using common sense?

For example, are you taking stage length into consideration? Do you know how UA allocates revenue and cost between a passenger that flies EWR-SFO-NRT, vs AA EWR-DFW-NRT vs, just local O&D passengers?

etc, etc. etc.,
 
onwFan
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:33 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Cant use LGA as a primary hub

Perimeter, no international

US Air tried this...it was a disaster for them

If you read again, I only said overlapping routes. CLE, PIT, CMH, CVG, IND, BNA, RDU, DCA, BOS, RIC, ORF, YYZ, YUL are all served from LGA as well. There is no need to fly them from JFK as even more connection options will be available through PHL. JFK already only has major international destinations served on AA, most of which are for strategic presence and again no one needs to connect from those flights.

On the other hand, DL needs LGA/JFK to even connect passengers from all these and numerous other markets on top of O/D. So NYC is more of a necessity for DL than anything because AA/UA gained additional presence in the NorthEast through their mergers which DL didn’t.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:45 pm

It should be pretty telling knowing that AA has pushed back JFK - LHR and cut frequencies to sub daily.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
Posts: 493
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:55 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Cant use LGA as a primary hub

Perimeter, no international

US Air tried this...it was a disaster for them


US Airways was for much of its post-Piedmont, pre-America West existence a regional airline. PSA network from LAX was drawn down gradually and completely gone by the mid-1990's. Midwestern strength in Cleveland and Indianapolis eventually forfeited.

I have a Attache inflight magazine I was just looking at last night from 2005. Airport terminal map diagrams of seven airports in the back. They are of BOS, CLT, DCA, FLL, LGA, PHL, PIT. All seven of those airports are either on the east coast, cater mostly to O&D or primarily cater to north-south traffic flows in the east with the possible exception of PIT. So LGA fit their regional network as did DCA, both restricted by perimeter rules and yes both very flawed as connecting hubs.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:30 pm

LaGuardia burned money for them

That is why their terminal fell into disrepair and they had a bunch of Dash 8s slot squatting

They were the largest airline at LaGuardia. they had the most slot holdings.

Remember the duct tape holding down the rugs in the middle of the hall??

No one should try to resurrect that mess of an operation.

They should offer some high frequency shuttle service to their hubs at LaGuardia and selloff the rest of the stuff
 
onwFan
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:37 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
LaGuardia burned money for them

That is why their terminal fell into disrepair and they had a bunch of Dash 8s slot squatting

They were the largest airline at LaGuardia. they had the most slot holdings.

Remember the duct tape holding down the rugs in the middle of the hall??

No one should try to resurrect that mess of an operation.

They should offer some high frequency shuttle service to their hubs at LaGuardia and selloff the rest of the stuff

Yeah, because the situation a decade ago is the perfect analogy to the situation now.
 
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jetblastdubai
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:37 pm

tphuang wrote:

totally agreed. 40 to 50 flights. I'm also not convinced they will stick around on SFO.


If only there were an airline that was already big in SFO that wanted to get back into the JFK market.
 
tphuang
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:48 pm

airzim wrote:
tphuang wrote:
airzim wrote:

I tend to ignore your analysis given it's highly flawed, but I believe you use Average Fare for your claims. There is no way you can claim to prove yield or margin off average fare alone. In fact, no publicly available data proves any comparison between carriers given you're not privy to costs, corporate deals, network cost and revenue distribution, etc. There's simply too many variables to consider.

i use average fare, load factor and connection % + connection fares. You don't have to believe what I say. The fact that AA has dropped so many markets out of JFK should tell you everything. My analysis has been remarkably good at anticipating which routes get dropped on jetblue and southwest network. All these AA JFK markets that got dropped, I called them before it happened.


You use "yield" and "margin" way too liberally on your claim of analysis. You are proving neither. You might be just lucky, or using common sense?

For example, are you taking stage length into consideration? Do you know how UA allocates revenue and cost between a passenger that flies EWR-SFO-NRT, vs AA EWR-DFW-NRT vs, just local O&D passengers?

etc, etc. etc.,


For yield, I use publicly available data on average fare, LF, connection %, connection fare and such. I don't do international connection, since that data is not available. I used my own made up formula for allocating yield on domestic connections. This has been pretty good at figuring out how each carriers are doing vs each other on a route.

I ran a formula for both JetBlue and southwest across every route on their network based on calculated yield, normalized against aircraft used (it's a lot easier to figure out single/two-type fleet vs legacy fleets), my estimated costs for them and what the expected yield should be for that route based on stage length. For both carriers, they pretty much canceled/reduced all the worst performing routes that were not-strategic (strategic routes like BOS-ATL for B6 and LAX-SFO/SJC for WN were kept around despite being serious underperformers). That's what I use to get a sense of the margin for each of their routes. It was so obvious LGB were some of the worst performers for B6. And they cut those routes as soon as they give up on sustaining LGB. And it was so obvious stuff like BOS-ATL/FLL-JAX/SFO-PDX/MKE-CLE were terrible performers for WN and they canceled those.

When I say B6 at JFK generates good margin, it's because JFK (based on my spreadsheet) was their most profitable focus city in 2018 and 2019. It has to be several points ahead of other focus cities. And since we have actual data on what their system wide margin is, one could make a good estimate on what kind margin they generate in NYC. Nothing absolute, but I'm pretty confident they do really well in NYC as a whole, but especially JFK.

Let's see what AA does. I think DL will be very focused on increasing its hold in NYC coming out of this. B6 isn't going anywhere unless it gets into a merger. I fully expect UA to shrink at EWR in the short term, but come back to 2019 level in 3 years. I could see a real partnership between B6 and AA coming out of this. They do have a common enemy in DL.
 
NYCAAer
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:50 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
It should be pretty telling knowing that AA has pushed back JFK - LHR and cut frequencies to sub daily.


This is purely due to coronavirus.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:06 pm

[photoid][/photoid]
NYCAAer wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
It should be pretty telling knowing that AA has pushed back JFK - LHR and cut frequencies to sub daily.


This is purely due to coronavirus.


UA is still flying to LHR no problem.
 
onwFan
Posts: 434
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:12 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]
NYCAAer wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
It should be pretty telling knowing that AA has pushed back JFK - LHR and cut frequencies to sub daily.


This is purely due to coronavirus.


UA is still flying to LHR no problem.

That is UA’s only presence in the New york-London market. If you are trying to make sense of the presence of US carriers in the next few months, compare AA/BA, DL/VS and UA, unless you expect airlines to have one flight for every passenger who wants to fly.
 
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airzim
Posts: 1441
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:26 pm

tphuang wrote:
airzim wrote:
tphuang wrote:
i use average fare, load factor and connection % + connection fares. You don't have to believe what I say. The fact that AA has dropped so many markets out of JFK should tell you everything. My analysis has been remarkably good at anticipating which routes get dropped on jetblue and southwest network. All these AA JFK markets that got dropped, I called them before it happened.


You use "yield" and "margin" way too liberally on your claim of analysis. You are proving neither. You might be just lucky, or using common sense?

For example, are you taking stage length into consideration? Do you know how UA allocates revenue and cost between a passenger that flies EWR-SFO-NRT, vs AA EWR-DFW-NRT vs, just local O&D passengers?

etc, etc. etc.,


For yield, I use publicly available data on average fare, LF, connection %, connection fare and such. I don't do international connection, since that data is not available. I used my own made up formula for allocating yield on domestic connections. This has been pretty good at figuring out how each carriers are doing vs each other on a route.


I don't know where you're getting your data, and not including international connections leaves a potentially huge hole in your process. (Bolding mine) As defined by MIT Flight Transportation Lab, "Passenger Yield Measure of average fare paid per mile, per passenger, calculated by dividing passenger revenue by revenue passenger miles (RPMs). Typically the measure is presented in cents per mile and is useful measure in assessing changes in fares over time. Yield is not useful for comparisons across markets and/or airlines, as it varies dramatically by stage length and does not incorporate load factor (unlike PRASM)."

How do you calculate Load Factor? Also from MIT, "Load Factor. The number of Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs) expressed as a percentage of ASMs, either on a particular flight or for the entire system. Load factor represents the proportion of airline output that is actually consumed. To calculate this figure, divide RPMs by ASMs. Load factor for a single flight can also be calculated by dividing the number of passengers by the number of seats."

Are you looking at RPM or just the percentage of occupied seats? LF can be easily swayed by non rev and FFP travel (depending on how an airline allocates revenue to a FFP ticket).

Lastly, connection % is going to be heavily skewed based on stage length, especially international which you admit you don't have. If AA is pushing lots of connections to AU/NZ, Japan, and SE Asia via LA, the average fare is going to look artificially lower than B6 who's likely carrying mostly point to point traffic.

Route by route analysis is generally an irrelevant metric. You need to look at total network contribution. The reason UA runs hourly flights a day from EWR to SFO/IAH/ORD is not because of local demand, it's feeding downline demand through their hub networks. Plus the downline stage length is also vitally important not just a % of connections. Logically that will drive down average fares on shorter segments, but also just as likely positively contribute to network revenue.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:41 pm

onwFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:

All 3 US Airlines will shrink in NYC, not just AA.


Yes, but AA will have to shrink the most. AA has the most debt and weakest point of sale from NYC, so will have to cut capacity at its worst performing hubs (NYC/LAX) more than anyone else. As much as I dislike DL, I think they will consolidate their position in NYC coming out of this.


I think AA will remove all overlapping routes from LGA/JFK and consolidate LGA as their primary NYC hub. For the North East, have PHL as the gateway and LGA/DCA for O/D.

NYC is DL’s only hub in the North East. I cannot see their BOS ops coming back in this economy. DL’s split hub strategy at JFK/LGA is not going to particularly efficient either. If JFK is going to be as empty as people on here suggest, and DL is going to expand massively there, that has got to be at the expense of LGA, especially as recovery to prior levels is going to take years.


AA will not consolidate at LGA. That won't work with the routes they operate. I do agree that DL's BOS hublet is toast or at least shelved for a time.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1991
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:42 pm

airzim wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:

AA is actually not that weak POS wise in NYC. I agree LAX as it stands for AA will not look the same going forward. In NYC, AA still has a strong FF base, and retains some very big corporate contracts to/from. I'd argue the airline that stands to lose a lot of ground in NYC is actually B6. It's the smallest profit wise, is more leisure geared than business.


AA is the weakest in NYC if you have seen the yield data from past 2 years I've been posting. Their yields ratio on various routes they compete with DL/B6 dropped 10% in 2 years against their competitors. That's why they were forced out of some key markets like SEA/SAN/LAS/MCO. All of which indicates a signficantly reduced ff base.

B6 at JFK runs the highest margin of any airline in NYC.


I tend to ignore your analysis given it's highly flawed, but I believe you use Average Fare for your claims. There is no way you can claim to prove yield or margin off average fare alone. In fact, no publicly available data proves any comparison between carriers given you're not privy to costs, corporate deals, network cost and revenue distribution, etc. There's simply too many variables to consider.


Agreed. @tphuang has no view into AA's yield and revenue management. It's all speculation.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1991
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:44 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
It should be pretty telling knowing that AA has pushed back JFK - LHR and cut frequencies to sub daily.


DL is not operating any JFK-LHR frequencies. VS has one. BA has one. What's your point? Does that mean VS operating one of four and BA one of 10 is telling too?
 
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ojjunior
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:46 pm

In what world is a NY-Buenos Aires a prestigious route?
 
jfk777
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:58 pm

ojjunior wrote:
In what world is a NY-Buenos Aires a prestigious route?


In the USA it is not but for Aerolinias Argentinas it is a very important route, who cares if they lose $$ on it.
 
F27500
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:35 pm

ojjunior wrote:
In what world is a NY-Buenos Aires a prestigious route?


Its mire prestigious than NY-Dayton !
 
tphuang
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:45 pm

airzim wrote:
How do you calculate Load Factor? Also from MIT, "Load Factor. The number of Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs) expressed as a percentage of ASMs, either on a particular flight or for the entire system. Load factor represents the proportion of airline output that is actually consumed. To calculate this figure, divide RPMs by ASMs. Load factor for a single flight can also be calculated by dividing the number of passengers by the number of seats."

Are you looking at RPM or just the percentage of occupied seats? LF can be easily swayed by non rev and FFP travel (depending on how an airline allocates revenue to a FFP ticket).

Lastly, connection % is going to be heavily skewed based on stage length, especially international which you admit you don't have. If AA is pushing lots of connections to AU/NZ, Japan, and SE Asia via LA, the average fare is going to look artificially lower than B6 who's likely carrying mostly point to point traffic.

Route by route analysis is generally an irrelevant metric. You need to look at total network contribution. The reason UA runs hourly flights a day from EWR to SFO/IAH/ORD is not because of local demand, it's feeding downline demand through their hub networks. Plus the downline stage length is also vitally important not just a % of connections. Logically that will drive down average fares on shorter segments, but also just as likely positively contribute to network revenue.


You sure do dish out a lot of criticism for other people's work. If you don't care for my data, just ignore it.

I get my data from all public available sources with BTS. The load factor is passengers / seats for T-100. The connection % is based on the available fare data and total passenger count. I know the direct passengers and domestic connection passengers and total passengers, so international connection is just the remainder. These are all not exact, but pretty good approximation. And my revenue split for connection itineraries isn't using linear formula. It took a lot of effort before the split looked reasonable to me.

I put everything in context and people can absorb the data anyway they want. If you don't want to use it, you can go get it from one of the amazing paid sites.

Cointrin330 wrote:

Agreed. @tphuang has no view into AA's yield and revenue management. It's all speculation.


sure, AA cutting key markets left and right out of JFK is all my speculation. Sure, AA's fares going down vs competitors on major markets like JFK-LAX/SFO/PHX are all my speculation. Sure, AA going from 13x daily on JFK-LAX to 11x daily before COVID started is all on my speculation.
Last edited by tphuang on Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
dcajet
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:46 pm

jfk777 wrote:
ojjunior wrote:
In what world is a NY-Buenos Aires a prestigious route?


In the USA it is not but for Aerolinias Argentinas it is a very important route, who cares if they lose $$ on it.


Not any longer: even before the pandemic, during the last southern summer, AR had traded some of the JFK frequencies for MCO, There is more money to be made (or less to be lost) taking families and quinceañera groups to visit the Mouse than there is in flying to JFK. I doubt that we will see AR return to JFK in 2020. AA has already announced the resumption of the JFK-EZE on June 4th, although that depends on when Argentina will reopen for business. Right now the government has set that date for Sept 1. (a total arbitrary decision that has to do more with politics than with any scientific evidence).

ojjunior wrote:
In what world is a NY-Buenos Aires a prestigious route?


Who cares about prestige? AA makes beacoup bucks on the route; that's what matters for the folks at Dallas. Prestige? Well, the two cities have enjoyed nonstop service, uninterrupted, since 1963, and jet service since 1959. So I'd call that prestigious. Only Rio could match that, until they lost year round service to NYC.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
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airzim
Posts: 1441
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:07 pm

tphuang wrote:
airzim wrote:
How do you calculate Load Factor? Also from MIT, "Load Factor. The number of Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs) expressed as a percentage of ASMs, either on a particular flight or for the entire system. Load factor represents the proportion of airline output that is actually consumed. To calculate this figure, divide RPMs by ASMs. Load factor for a single flight can also be calculated by dividing the number of passengers by the number of seats."

Are you looking at RPM or just the percentage of occupied seats? LF can be easily swayed by non rev and FFP travel (depending on how an airline allocates revenue to a FFP ticket).

Lastly, connection % is going to be heavily skewed based on stage length, especially international which you admit you don't have. If AA is pushing lots of connections to AU/NZ, Japan, and SE Asia via LA, the average fare is going to look artificially lower than B6 who's likely carrying mostly point to point traffic.

Route by route analysis is generally an irrelevant metric. You need to look at total network contribution. The reason UA runs hourly flights a day from EWR to SFO/IAH/ORD is not because of local demand, it's feeding downline demand through their hub networks. Plus the downline stage length is also vitally important not just a % of connections. Logically that will drive down average fares on shorter segments, but also just as likely positively contribute to network revenue.


You sure do dish out a lot of criticism for other people's work. If you don't care for my data, just ignore it.

I get my data from all public available sources with BTS. The load factor is passengers / seats for T-100. The connection % is based on the available fare data and total passenger count. I know the direct passengers and domestic connection passengers and total passengers, so international connection is just the remainder. These are all not exact, but pretty good approximation. And my revenue split for connection itineraries isn't using linear formula. It took a lot of effort before the split looked reasonable to me.

I put everything in context and people can absorb the data anyway they want. If you don't want to use it, you can go get it from one of the amazing paid sites.

Cointrin330 wrote:

Agreed. @tphuang has no view into AA's yield and revenue management. It's all speculation.


sure, AA cutting key markets left and right out of JFK is all my speculation. Sure, AA's fares going down vs competitors on major markets like JFK-LAX/SFO/PHX are all my speculation. Sure, AA going from 13x daily on JFK-LAX to 11x daily before COVID started is all on my speculation.



You're the one that is using your own data in order to make determinations on "yield" and "margin" as definitive fact. When I pointed out you use these airline industry defined measurements inaccurately. I think its fair to dispute your analysis as flawed.

More importantly won't share the data and your formulas so we're just supposed to take it at face value.

As I said, I've ignored your analysis for as long as you posted it. Just pointing this out to you and others.
 
NYCAAer
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:08 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]
NYCAAer wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
It should be pretty telling knowing that AA has pushed back JFK - LHR and cut frequencies to sub daily.


This is purely due to coronavirus.


UA is still flying to LHR no problem.


AA has a joint business venture with BA. What few passengers, if any, are consolidated on the BA flight. Comparing the current business situation to what it was prior to COVID-19 is futile.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5184
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Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:39 pm

airzim wrote:
tphuang wrote:
airzim wrote:
How do you calculate Load Factor? Also from MIT, "Load Factor. The number of Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs) expressed as a percentage of ASMs, either on a particular flight or for the entire system. Load factor represents the proportion of airline output that is actually consumed. To calculate this figure, divide RPMs by ASMs. Load factor for a single flight can also be calculated by dividing the number of passengers by the number of seats."

Are you looking at RPM or just the percentage of occupied seats? LF can be easily swayed by non rev and FFP travel (depending on how an airline allocates revenue to a FFP ticket).

Lastly, connection % is going to be heavily skewed based on stage length, especially international which you admit you don't have. If AA is pushing lots of connections to AU/NZ, Japan, and SE Asia via LA, the average fare is going to look artificially lower than B6 who's likely carrying mostly point to point traffic.

Route by route analysis is generally an irrelevant metric. You need to look at total network contribution. The reason UA runs hourly flights a day from EWR to SFO/IAH/ORD is not because of local demand, it's feeding downline demand through their hub networks. Plus the downline stage length is also vitally important not just a % of connections. Logically that will drive down average fares on shorter segments, but also just as likely positively contribute to network revenue.


You sure do dish out a lot of criticism for other people's work. If you don't care for my data, just ignore it.

I get my data from all public available sources with BTS. The load factor is passengers / seats for T-100. The connection % is based on the available fare data and total passenger count. I know the direct passengers and domestic connection passengers and total passengers, so international connection is just the remainder. These are all not exact, but pretty good approximation. And my revenue split for connection itineraries isn't using linear formula. It took a lot of effort before the split looked reasonable to me.

I put everything in context and people can absorb the data anyway they want. If you don't want to use it, you can go get it from one of the amazing paid sites.

Cointrin330 wrote:

Agreed. @tphuang has no view into AA's yield and revenue management. It's all speculation.


sure, AA cutting key markets left and right out of JFK is all my speculation. Sure, AA's fares going down vs competitors on major markets like JFK-LAX/SFO/PHX are all my speculation. Sure, AA going from 13x daily on JFK-LAX to 11x daily before COVID started is all on my speculation.



You're the one that is using your own data in order to make determinations on "yield" and "margin" as definitive fact. When I pointed out you use these airline industry defined measurements inaccurately. I think its fair to dispute your analysis as flawed.

More importantly won't share the data and your formulas so we're just supposed to take it at face value.

As I said, I've ignored your analysis for as long as you posted it. Just pointing this out to you and others.


Wonderful, because a lot of people have found them useful. And the part about now sharing the data is just complete lie. It's all publicly available. You can go get them from BTS website yourself.

As I said, JFK down to below 50 flights a year now and LGA to under 120 flights a day.

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