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asuflyer
Posts: 567
Joined: Mon Jan 01, 2007 12:48 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:47 pm

Many AA international routes from JFK are heavily supported by corporate travel contracts. Without them AA would not be able to sustain them with just O&D and VFR pax.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 704
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:53 pm

50 flights is realistically more a focus city. With the nosedive in demand and probably not coming back soon I see a major cut on RJ flights to particularly LGA..
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2076
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Fri May 01, 2020 1:32 am

tphuang wrote:
airzim wrote:
tphuang wrote:

You sure do dish out a lot of criticism for other people's work. If you don't care for my data, just ignore it.

I get my data from all public available sources with BTS. The load factor is passengers / seats for T-100. The connection % is based on the available fare data and total passenger count. I know the direct passengers and domestic connection passengers and total passengers, so international connection is just the remainder. These are all not exact, but pretty good approximation. And my revenue split for connection itineraries isn't using linear formula. It took a lot of effort before the split looked reasonable to me.

I put everything in context and people can absorb the data anyway they want. If you don't want to use it, you can go get it from one of the amazing paid sites.



sure, AA cutting key markets left and right out of JFK is all my speculation. Sure, AA's fares going down vs competitors on major markets like JFK-LAX/SFO/PHX are all my speculation. Sure, AA going from 13x daily on JFK-LAX to 11x daily before COVID started is all on my speculation.



You're the one that is using your own data in order to make determinations on "yield" and "margin" as definitive fact. When I pointed out you use these airline industry defined measurements inaccurately. I think its fair to dispute your analysis as flawed.

More importantly won't share the data and your formulas so we're just supposed to take it at face value.

As I said, I've ignored your analysis for as long as you posted it. Just pointing this out to you and others.


Wonderful, because a lot of people have found them useful. And the part about now sharing the data is just complete lie. It's all publicly available. You can go get them from BTS website yourself.

As I said, JFK down to below 50 flights a year now and LGA to under 120 flights a day.


You do realize there is a pandemic right?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5351
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Fri May 01, 2020 11:21 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
airzim wrote:


You're the one that is using your own data in order to make determinations on "yield" and "margin" as definitive fact. When I pointed out you use these airline industry defined measurements inaccurately. I think its fair to dispute your analysis as flawed.

More importantly won't share the data and your formulas so we're just supposed to take it at face value.

As I said, I've ignored your analysis for as long as you posted it. Just pointing this out to you and others.


Wonderful, because a lot of people have found them useful. And the part about now sharing the data is just complete lie. It's all publicly available. You can go get them from BTS website yourself.

As I said, JFK down to below 50 flights a year now and LGA to under 120 flights a day.


You do realize there is a pandemic right?

Fine, under 50 flights at JFK and under 120 flights at LGA by the end of 2021. We will see how long the slot waivers last. Either way, with all the debt AA will have to service, it's not at a position to fly as many routes strategically in really competitive markets like NYC and LA.
 
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BA744PHX
Posts: 384
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2007 3:42 am

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Fri May 01, 2020 11:50 am

tphuang wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Wonderful, because a lot of people have found them useful. And the part about now sharing the data is just complete lie. It's all publicly available. You can go get them from BTS website yourself.

As I said, JFK down to below 50 flights a year now and LGA to under 120 flights a day.


You do realize there is a pandemic right?

Fine, under 50 flights at JFK and under 120 flights at LGA by the end of 2021. We will see how long the slot waivers last. Either way, with all the debt AA will have to service, it's not at a position to fly as many routes strategically in really competitive markets like NYC and LA.

Just like Delta, let's see how long they can maintain both LGA & JFK, not likely
 
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airzim
Posts: 1450
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2001 7:40 am

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Fri May 01, 2020 3:06 pm

tphuang wrote:
airzim wrote:
tphuang wrote:

You sure do dish out a lot of criticism for other people's work. If you don't care for my data, just ignore it.

I get my data from all public available sources with BTS. The load factor is passengers / seats for T-100. The connection % is based on the available fare data and total passenger count. I know the direct passengers and domestic connection passengers and total passengers, so international connection is just the remainder. These are all not exact, but pretty good approximation. And my revenue split for connection itineraries isn't using linear formula. It took a lot of effort before the split looked reasonable to me.

I put everything in context and people can absorb the data anyway they want. If you don't want to use it, you can go get it from one of the amazing paid sites.



sure, AA cutting key markets left and right out of JFK is all my speculation. Sure, AA's fares going down vs competitors on major markets like JFK-LAX/SFO/PHX are all my speculation. Sure, AA going from 13x daily on JFK-LAX to 11x daily before COVID started is all on my speculation.



You're the one that is using your own data in order to make determinations on "yield" and "margin" as definitive fact. When I pointed out you use these airline industry defined measurements inaccurately. I think its fair to dispute your analysis as flawed.

More importantly won't share the data and your formulas so we're just supposed to take it at face value.

As I said, I've ignored your analysis for as long as you posted it. Just pointing this out to you and others.


Wonderful, because a lot of people have found them useful. And the part about now sharing the data is just complete lie. It's all publicly available. You can go get them from BTS website yourself.

As I said, JFK down to below 50 flights a year now and LGA to under 120 flights a day.


Glad some folks found it useful, but its about as useful as the President pitching lysol as a remedy for COVID :ashamed: Some people are actually naive enough to take at face value.

You also miss the point, while the BTS data is available, we have no viability what you're doing with the data. You admitted yourself that you've manipulated the average fare values to accommodate connections, but we have no idea how. I still contend that based on what's publicly available, there's no way you can make the statements you making with any accuracy. We don't know how the average fare is calculated in BTS, how they prorate fares across their network, we don't know how the airlines record seats occupied (how to they include pass travel, FFP, etc.) and you don't appear to accommodate stage length. I've said this already multiple times, but you have yet to defend any of these assertions.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2076
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Fri May 01, 2020 3:44 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Sadly, stick a fork in them at JFK...they are done.

I said a downturn would do this.

High frequency to MIA CLT LAX. PHX (on some level) Token presence to ORD DFW. BOS DCA RDU on Eagle. Token presence to SFO. LHR CDG. Possibly one off leisure like CUN and STT.

40-50 flights.

B6, if they survive, will be well positioned for growth at JFK


Well, a serious downturn could push B6 into AA and then AA would have the scale at JFK everyone here clamors for, at lower cost than DL or UA over at EWR, but its not likely. I don't disagree it is about to get more interesting, but I also don't see AA close JFK.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5351
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Fri May 01, 2020 3:52 pm

airzim wrote:
tphuang wrote:
airzim wrote:


You're the one that is using your own data in order to make determinations on "yield" and "margin" as definitive fact. When I pointed out you use these airline industry defined measurements inaccurately. I think its fair to dispute your analysis as flawed.

More importantly won't share the data and your formulas so we're just supposed to take it at face value.

As I said, I've ignored your analysis for as long as you posted it. Just pointing this out to you and others.


Wonderful, because a lot of people have found them useful. And the part about now sharing the data is just complete lie. It's all publicly available. You can go get them from BTS website yourself.

As I said, JFK down to below 50 flights a year now and LGA to under 120 flights a day.


Glad some folks found it useful, but its about as useful as the President pitching lysol as a remedy for COVID :ashamed: Some people are actually naive enough to take at face value.

You also miss the point, while the BTS data is available, we have no viability what you're doing with the data. You admitted yourself that you've manipulated the average fare values to accommodate connections, but we have no idea how. I still contend that based on what's publicly available, there's no way you can make the statements you making with any accuracy. We don't know how the average fare is calculated in BTS, how they prorate fares across their network, we don't know how the airlines record seats occupied (how to they include pass travel, FFP, etc.) and you don't appear to accommodate stage length. I've said this already multiple times, but you have yet to defend any of these assertions.


I'm glad that you find insulting me the right way to go here. I never said what I produced is the same formula that airlines use, but rather it's very useful in determining how well airlines are doing over time. If average fares are going up over time more than your competitors, then you are gaining point of sale on that route. If its declining over time, then you are losing point of sale on that route.

Alright, let me do address some of your concerns here, because apparently you are really interested in knowing how I get to my numbers.

- stage length - This only matters when looking at system wide performances to sort out which routes are the most profitable.

It doesn't matter for performance of carriers on the same route. For example, the stage length of JFK-LAX doesn't matter when comparing competitors. So my comments about AA losing POS at JFK is based on their performances vs competitors on some high volume routes JFK-LAX/SFO/PHX/SEA/SAN/MCO/RDU/LAS. I compare those quarters vs quarters and year vs year. I get a yield for each carrier and then measure the yield gap between the carriers. And then I compare the yield gap quarter vs quarter and quarter vs previous year and quarter vs 2 years prior. That tells me whether the yield gap is increasing or decreasing. And the number comes out to be what I would expect. Which is yield gap going in the wrong direction for AA and going in the right direction for DL. That matches what I see on flyertalk forum of mass departure of AA ff to DL. It also matches what I see in AA's action in cutting MCO/LAS/SEA/SAN.

Now in terms of system wide performance and stage length. That you have to look at individual airline. Get a list of all the routes, their yield and their distance. Establish what the expected yield would be for a 0 distance flight (since there is always a set fixed cost for take off/landing/crews showing up/having aircraft turned around and such) based on the shortest routes and what their yields are. and then every route's expected yield = base line yield + distance * factor. And then I calculate that factor by summing system wide capacity and system wide (yield - 0 distance yield) * distance * capacity on each route. That gives me what to use as factor. That allows me to know approximately what's expected for a route of certain stage length use. And then I subtract that the actual yield to get how far or below system expectation is for a route. Again, this is far from perfect and i have to look at the data with its limitations in mind, but it gives a pretty good idea of how well a route is doing vs normal expectations. Let's just say every flight that B6 and WN cut in the past couple of years made a lot of sense compared to my spread sheet.

- Fare. We have raw fare data for 10% of all itineraries from domestic flights. Using that, I have a filter logic to ignore fare data that seems to be award ticket (if fare is below expectation for a certain stage length) and use that to get average fare data. I tweaked this until the numbers I got matched what BTS had for average fares for each of the carriers to be confident that the filter is pretty close to accurate. For example, ULCCs will generally have different filters than legacies. A $50 transcon fare might be possible on F9, but it's not really possible on legacy carrier.

- LF uses T-100 data which has number of passengers vs seats available.

- average fare - need to get average fare from non-stop and connection itinerary. For non-stop, it's pretty simple, just take the average fare of the non-stop itineraries. For connection, it's a lot harder. I take the connection fare and do a weighted calculation to give a portion to each leg of the itinerary. There is a penalization of 5% of fare for 1-stop and 10% of fare for 2+ stops. I added distance of 1200 on each leg of the itinerary and then do prorated calculation on that. So if itinerary is 500 mile in leg 1 and 1000 mile in leg 2. Leg 1 will get (500 + 1200) / (1500+2400) of the fare after penalization of 5%. Why did I use 1200? I tried a bunch of numbers and the results from using 1200 made the most sense to me. So then I take the average of the connection itinerary.

- Connection % - Take the number of non-stop itineraries * 10 / passengers. That's the baseline way of calculating connection %. Alternative way is taking non-stop fare / (total number of fares). Problem with first is that the number of itineraries could end up being more than 10% of passengers. Problem with second is that it lacks international connection. A final way is taking a combination of that. For airports that have a lot of international connection like MIA/FLL/JFK/EWR, the best way is to just directly use the first 1. For airports that have mostly domestic connections, second way is better. For airports with a decent amount of international, I use a mix or first and second. Again, not perfect but the numbers made a lot of sense. I tweak the ratio of using first and second until it looked reasonable to me.

- Yield = LF * ( average non stop fare * ( 1- conn%) + average conn fare * ( conn%))
 
AmericanAir88
Posts: 70
Joined: Wed May 27, 2020 8:59 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:29 am

Does anyone have an update on AA at JFK. How many flights are going out of there and how are load factors there? It is a big terminal and I really hope AA is at least adding some things back. I will be there for a JFK-CLT flight soon, but I am wondering how it is doing right now.
 
rjbesikof
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:21 am

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:09 am

AmericanAir88 wrote:
Does anyone have an update on AA at JFK. How many flights are going out of there and how are load factors there? It is a big terminal and I really hope AA is at least adding some things back. I will be there for a JFK-CLT flight soon, but I am wondering how it is doing right now.


Currently, I have no idea how AA domestic does at JFK. However, AA will be working with JetBlue over the next few years to rebuild JFK.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 258
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:46 am

AmericanAir88 wrote:
Does anyone have an update on AA at JFK. How many flights are going out of there and how are load factors there? It is a big terminal and I really hope AA is at least adding some things back. I will be there for a JFK-CLT flight soon, but I am wondering how it is doing right now.

Anecdotally (I am in the AA JFK terminal about 8x a month) it’s been a ghost town lately. As far as LF/daily departures, I can’t say. Significantly low, but not much different than B6 and DL on both counts. But hey, taxi times are quick and there aren’t many delays.
 
panamair
Posts: 4344
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:55 am

AA is currently at about 13-14 flights a day at JFK. All domestic (LAX,SFO,PHX,CLT) except for one LHR.

Depending on day of week, B6 could be as low as 46 flights (on a Wednesday) or as high as 75 on a peak day (eg Thursday). DL is running an average of 70 departures a day out of JFK this month.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2076
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:48 am

JoseSalazar wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
Does anyone have an update on AA at JFK. How many flights are going out of there and how are load factors there? It is a big terminal and I really hope AA is at least adding some things back. I will be there for a JFK-CLT flight soon, but I am wondering how it is doing right now.

Anecdotally (I am in the AA JFK terminal about 8x a month) it’s been a ghost town lately. As far as LF/daily departures, I can’t say. Significantly low, but not much different than B6 and DL on both counts. But hey, taxi times are quick and there aren’t many delays.


Terminal 8 is almost always a joy to fly out of even before COVID19 and had been a relatively quiet place before the pandemic, with late afternoon/early evening being the busiest, but nothing compared to how awful and clogged T4 and T1 had been. All of JFK's biggest operators, including B6 and DL are way down in departures, though the numbers have rebounded a bit since NY reopened, reflecting the drop in demand (it will stay that way for a while) and quarantine requirements for those entering NY from most other US states. AA ramped up LAX and SFO frequency a bit since June, is flying again to CLT and PHX, and restored one of four LHR nonstops (AA 106). The plan for AA is/was to restore CDG next (as far as international service goes), and then MXP, MAD, and GRU/EZE starting in late September, but most of that seems highly unlikely for the time being.

As for other international carriers operating at T8, QF is not flying at all at the moment and not expected to until March 2021 so there's no JFK-LAX-SYD/BNE/MEL, QF is operating a few times a week only, same goes for Finnair and QR, and RJ is I believe cargo only, once a week.
 
patdt146
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:49 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:26 pm

rjbesikof wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
Does anyone have an update on AA at JFK. How many flights are going out of there and how are load factors there? It is a big terminal and I really hope AA is at least adding some things back. I will be there for a JFK-CLT flight soon, but I am wondering how it is doing right now.


Currently, I have no idea how AA domestic does at JFK. However, AA will be working with JetBlue over the next few years to rebuild JFK.


Why should AA rebuild domestically? They might as well farm it all out to B6 in the domestic market! The same can be said for LAX, where B6 is bulking up and AS has a substantial hub there, so I wouldn't be surprised to find a similar practice emerge down there as well. I know that the AS partnership seems to put a lot of privilege on SEA, but there's no reason that couldn't expand, especially given their upcoming Oneworld status.
 
ryby92
Posts: 39
Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:34 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:45 pm

patdt146 wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
Does anyone have an update on AA at JFK. How many flights are going out of there and how are load factors there? It is a big terminal and I really hope AA is at least adding some things back. I will be there for a JFK-CLT flight soon, but I am wondering how it is doing right now.


Currently, I have no idea how AA domestic does at JFK. However, AA will be working with JetBlue over the next few years to rebuild JFK.


Why should AA rebuild domestically? They might as well farm it all out to B6 in the domestic market! The same can be said for LAX, where B6 is bulking up and AS has a substantial hub there, so I wouldn't be surprised to find a similar practice emerge down there as well. I know that the AS partnership seems to put a lot of privilege on SEA, but there's no reason that couldn't expand, especially given their upcoming Oneworld status.


Farm it all out including flights to AA hubs? For real?
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 6010
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:24 pm

panamair wrote:
AA is currently at about 13-14 flights a day at JFK. All domestic (LAX,SFO,PHX,CLT) except for one LHR.

Depending on day of week, B6 could be as low as 46 flights (on a Wednesday) or as high as 75 on a peak day (eg Thursday). DL is running an average of 70 departures a day out of JFK this month.



Are they really down to 46 flights? my god! they were supposed to be at 97
 
tphuang
Posts: 5351
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:29 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
panamair wrote:
AA is currently at about 13-14 flights a day at JFK. All domestic (LAX,SFO,PHX,CLT) except for one LHR.

Depending on day of week, B6 could be as low as 46 flights (on a Wednesday) or as high as 75 on a peak day (eg Thursday). DL is running an average of 70 departures a day out of JFK this month.



Are they really down to 46 flights? my god! they were supposed to be at 97

For today:
AA 15
B6 46
DL 70

for tomorrow:
AA 16
B6 70
DL 76

B6 really took the sledgehammer onto the off peakdays for August. A lot of routes on 2 or 4 weekly flights.
 
AmericanAir88
Posts: 70
Joined: Wed May 27, 2020 8:59 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:47 pm

It is really sad to see that AA only has 15 flights a day. I love T8 and I remember the glorious days of when almost every gate was occupied and businesses were thriving.

What is AA’s plan for NYC. Are they adding back in future months?
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 617
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 8:54 pm

patdt146 wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
Does anyone have an update on AA at JFK. How many flights are going out of there and how are load factors there? It is a big terminal and I really hope AA is at least adding some things back. I will be there for a JFK-CLT flight soon, but I am wondering how it is doing right now.


Currently, I have no idea how AA domestic does at JFK. However, AA will be working with JetBlue over the next few years to rebuild JFK.


Why should AA rebuild domestically? They might as well farm it all out to B6 in the domestic market! The same can be said for LAX, where B6 is bulking up and AS has a substantial hub there, so I wouldn't be surprised to find a similar practice emerge down there as well. I know that the AS partnership seems to put a lot of privilege on SEA, but there's no reason that couldn't expand, especially given their upcoming Oneworld status.


Agree. American basically did not have the energy to compete against a superior JetBlue experience at JFK. I think they can compete against Delta if they put their mind to it, but with JetBlue in the game it would pretty much add too much capacity in the mix to be successful.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8297
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:18 pm

patdt146 wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
Does anyone have an update on AA at JFK. How many flights are going out of there and how are load factors there? It is a big terminal and I really hope AA is at least adding some things back. I will be there for a JFK-CLT flight soon, but I am wondering how it is doing right now.


Currently, I have no idea how AA domestic does at JFK. However, AA will be working with JetBlue over the next few years to rebuild JFK.


Why should AA rebuild domestically? They might as well farm it all out to B6 in the domestic market! The same can be said for LAX, where B6 is bulking up and AS has a substantial hub there, so I wouldn't be surprised to find a similar practice emerge down there as well.


Why? Because there's really no precedent for a U.S. network carrier to shrink its way to profitability. Think about farming out domestic flying to two carriers with limited service offerings: AS without t-con lie-flats, and B6 with very few routes seeing F cabins. That AA can't make money in the country's two largest O&D markets just speaks volumes to the deficiencies of products and cost structure.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/436183 ... c-failures

These are the first steps in the parting out of AA, similar to Pan Am selling its TPAC routes and TWA selling three London routes. When the carrier is run by financial 'engineers' instead of network engineers, watch out.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5351
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:30 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
patdt146 wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:

Currently, I have no idea how AA domestic does at JFK. However, AA will be working with JetBlue over the next few years to rebuild JFK.


Why should AA rebuild domestically? They might as well farm it all out to B6 in the domestic market! The same can be said for LAX, where B6 is bulking up and AS has a substantial hub there, so I wouldn't be surprised to find a similar practice emerge down there as well.


Why? Because there's really no precedent for a U.S. network carrier to shrink its way to profitability. Think about farming out domestic flying to two carriers with limited service offerings: AS without t-con lie-flats, and B6 with very few routes seeing F cabins. That AA can't make money in the country's two largest O&D markets just speaks volumes to the deficiencies of products and cost structure.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/436183 ... c-failures

These are the first steps in the parting out of AA, similar to Pan Am selling its TPAC routes and TWA selling three London routes. When the carrier is run by financial 'engineers' instead of network engineers, watch out.


Well Tim Dunn does make a habit out of saying AA is going bankrupt.

You've seen AA's current cash situation. They just added enough new debt since this started to require $500 million in additional interest payments a year. Not exactly at a position where they can take continued loses in NYC/LAX right now.

Back when COVID first hit, I said they were going to downsize dramatically in JFK/LGA/LAX and some people disagreed with me. Well, it looks like this is exactly what's happening. At least, they got a couple of partners to help them keep their network in tact. It was either this or abandoning the markets entirely.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2076
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:21 pm

tphuang wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
patdt146 wrote:

Why should AA rebuild domestically? They might as well farm it all out to B6 in the domestic market! The same can be said for LAX, where B6 is bulking up and AS has a substantial hub there, so I wouldn't be surprised to find a similar practice emerge down there as well.


Why? Because there's really no precedent for a U.S. network carrier to shrink its way to profitability. Think about farming out domestic flying to two carriers with limited service offerings: AS without t-con lie-flats, and B6 with very few routes seeing F cabins. That AA can't make money in the country's two largest O&D markets just speaks volumes to the deficiencies of products and cost structure.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/436183 ... c-failures

These are the first steps in the parting out of AA, similar to Pan Am selling its TPAC routes and TWA selling three London routes. When the carrier is run by financial 'engineers' instead of network engineers, watch out.


Well Tim Dunn does make a habit out of saying AA is going bankrupt.

You've seen AA's current cash situation. They just added enough new debt since this started to require $500 million in additional interest payments a year. Not exactly at a position where they can take continued loses in NYC/LAX right now.

Back when COVID first hit, I said they were going to downsize dramatically in JFK/LGA/LAX and some people disagreed with me. Well, it looks like this is exactly what's happening. At least, they got a couple of partners to help them keep their network in tact. It was either this or abandoning the markets entirely.


ALL the airlines are downsizing in different places and in different ways, including B6, which at 70 departures at JFK right now is just about where AA was as the pandemic hit. There will be permanent cuts for sure, but if you're writing AA's epitaph, put the entire industry on your wish list.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 174
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:47 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
patdt146 wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:

Currently, I have no idea how AA domestic does at JFK. However, AA will be working with JetBlue over the next few years to rebuild JFK.


Why should AA rebuild domestically? They might as well farm it all out to B6 in the domestic market! The same can be said for LAX, where B6 is bulking up and AS has a substantial hub there, so I wouldn't be surprised to find a similar practice emerge down there as well.


Why? Because there's really no precedent for a U.S. network carrier to shrink its way to profitability. Think about farming out domestic flying to two carriers with limited service offerings: AS without t-con lie-flats, and B6 with very few routes seeing F cabins. That AA can't make money in the country's two largest O&D markets just speaks volumes to the deficiencies of products and cost structure.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/436183 ... c-failures

These are the first steps in the parting out of AA, similar to Pan Am selling its TPAC routes and TWA selling three London routes. When the carrier is run by financial 'engineers' instead of network engineers, watch out.


That would assume the resources taken out of LAX/JFK are not reallocated elsewhere. Southwest does an excellent job recognizing where they are weak (ie. Boston), reducing their exposure, and reallocating those resources elsewhere in their network where they can leverage their strengths AND make a profit. Southwest carries the most domestic passengers even though they significantly reduced their presence in some major markets that did not meet their expectations.

AA needs to acknowledge the weaknesses in their network, address it by adjusting capacity, and reallocate their resources to areas of their network where they are strong and can generate a profit. Unfortunately AA’s culture is unwilling to look at things from this perspective and is another reason why they lag in financial performance compared to the DL/UA/WN.
 
patdt146
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:49 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:49 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Why? Because there's really no precedent for a U.S. network carrier to shrink its way to profitability. Think about farming out domestic flying to two carriers with limited service offerings: AS without t-con lie-flats, and B6 with very few routes seeing F cabins. That AA can't make money in the country's two largest O&D markets just speaks volumes to the deficiencies of products and cost structure.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/436183 ... c-failures

These are the first steps in the parting out of AA, similar to Pan Am selling its TPAC routes and TWA selling three London routes. When the carrier is run by financial 'engineers' instead of network engineers, watch out.


Well Tim Dunn does make a habit out of saying AA is going bankrupt.

You've seen AA's current cash situation. They just added enough new debt since this started to require $500 million in additional interest payments a year. Not exactly at a position where they can take continued loses in NYC/LAX right now.

Back when COVID first hit, I said they were going to downsize dramatically in JFK/LGA/LAX and some people disagreed with me. Well, it looks like this is exactly what's happening. At least, they got a couple of partners to help them keep their network in tact. It was either this or abandoning the markets entirely.


ALL the airlines are downsizing in different places and in different ways, including B6, which at 70 departures at JFK right now is just about where AA was as the pandemic hit. There will be permanent cuts for sure, but if you're writing AA's epitaph, put the entire industry on your wish list.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3340
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:29 am

rjbesikof wrote:
However, AA will be working with JetBlue over the next few years to rebuild JFK.


Not technically. AA can't work with B6 on where to add capacity or how much. They'll codeshare and have FF reciprocity, but AA and B6 cannot cooperate on network/schedule planning stuff as they don't have ATI.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26254
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:48 am

tphuang wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
patdt146 wrote:

Why should AA rebuild domestically? They might as well farm it all out to B6 in the domestic market! The same can be said for LAX, where B6 is bulking up and AS has a substantial hub there, so I wouldn't be surprised to find a similar practice emerge down there as well.


Why? Because there's really no precedent for a U.S. network carrier to shrink its way to profitability. Think about farming out domestic flying to two carriers with limited service offerings: AS without t-con lie-flats, and B6 with very few routes seeing F cabins. That AA can't make money in the country's two largest O&D markets just speaks volumes to the deficiencies of products and cost structure.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/436183 ... c-failures

These are the first steps in the parting out of AA, similar to Pan Am selling its TPAC routes and TWA selling three London routes. When the carrier is run by financial 'engineers' instead of network engineers, watch out.


Well Tim Dunn does make a habit out of saying AA is going bankrupt.

You've seen AA's current cash situation. They just added enough new debt since this started to require $500 million in additional interest payments a year. Not exactly at a position where they can take continued loses in NYC/LAX right now.

Back when COVID first hit, I said they were going to downsize dramatically in JFK/LGA/LAX and some people disagreed with me. Well, it looks like this is exactly what's happening. At least, they got a couple of partners to help them keep their network in tact. It was either this or abandoning the markets entirely.


Zero proof any of this is happening, yet you continue to make things up about how its true. Its so odd.
a.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6010
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:55 am

tphuang wrote:
airzim wrote:
tphuang wrote:

You sure do dish out a lot of criticism for other people's work. If you don't care for my data, just ignore it.

I get my data from all public available sources with BTS. The load factor is passengers / seats for T-100. The connection % is based on the available fare data and total passenger count. I know the direct passengers and domestic connection passengers and total passengers, so international connection is just the remainder. These are all not exact, but pretty good approximation. And my revenue split for connection itineraries isn't using linear formula. It took a lot of effort before the split looked reasonable to me.

I put everything in context and people can absorb the data anyway they want. If you don't want to use it, you can go get it from one of the amazing paid sites.



sure, AA cutting key markets left and right out of JFK is all my speculation. Sure, AA's fares going down vs competitors on major markets like JFK-LAX/SFO/PHX are all my speculation. Sure, AA going from 13x daily on JFK-LAX to 11x daily before COVID started is all on my speculation.



You're the one that is using your own data in order to make determinations on "yield" and "margin" as definitive fact. When I pointed out you use these airline industry defined measurements inaccurately. I think its fair to dispute your analysis as flawed.

More importantly won't share the data and your formulas so we're just supposed to take it at face value.

As I said, I've ignored your analysis for as long as you posted it. Just pointing this out to you and others.


Wonderful, because a lot of people have found them useful. And the part about now sharing the data is just complete lie. It's all publicly available. You can go get them from BTS website yourself.

As I said, JFK down to below 50 flights a year now and LGA to under 120 flights a day.


yes...but we are in a very different scenario than when this thread started.

The slots, the gates, the flying are going to be shifted to a partner. They aren’t walking away altogether
Last edited by jfklganyc on Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
patdt146
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:49 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:55 am

ryby92 wrote:
patdt146 wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:

Currently, I have no idea how AA domestic does at JFK. However, AA will be working with JetBlue over the next few years to rebuild JFK.


Why should AA rebuild domestically? They might as well farm it all out to B6 in the domestic market! The same can be said for LAX, where B6 is bulking up and AS has a substantial hub there, so I wouldn't be surprised to find a similar practice emerge down there as well. I know that the AS partnership seems to put a lot of privilege on SEA, but there's no reason that couldn't expand, especially given their upcoming Oneworld status.


Farm it all out including flights to AA hubs? For real?


Definitely not; I should have said farm much of it out. The transcons and the hub routes work, and there may be some useful feed on other routes, but JFK–ORF/RIC/BWI (for instance), which AA serves with ER4s, seem hardly worth it considering B6 operates to Kennedy and AA itself does so to LGA. Routes like JFK–AUS are interesting, but even there, it's not as if there isn't the opportunity to feed it into DFW or just rely on B6. Routes to hubs, the transcons with their very nice A321 products, and a select few other domestic routes make sense, but a good number of others do not IMO.
 
OB1504
Posts: 3982
Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2004 5:10 am

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:44 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Why? Because there's really no precedent for a U.S. network carrier to shrink its way to profitability. Think about farming out domestic flying to two carriers with limited service offerings: AS without t-con lie-flats, and B6 with very few routes seeing F cabins. That AA can't make money in the country's two largest O&D markets just speaks volumes to the deficiencies of products and cost structure.


With the retirement of the 757, AA’s only narrowbody with lie flats is the A321T, which only flies JFK-LAX/SFO. Every other market flown will a narrowbody will be subjected to Oasis, in which case AS has a superior F offering.

On the B6 routes with no F, B6’s Even More Space seats have the same or better legroom as F on an AA Oasis aircraft.

Farming out to AS and B6 will result in customers getting an improved onboard experience, and I agree that it shows how poor AA’s product has become.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5351
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American Airlines at JFK

Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:09 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Why? Because there's really no precedent for a U.S. network carrier to shrink its way to profitability. Think about farming out domestic flying to two carriers with limited service offerings: AS without t-con lie-flats, and B6 with very few routes seeing F cabins. That AA can't make money in the country's two largest O&D markets just speaks volumes to the deficiencies of products and cost structure.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/436183 ... c-failures

These are the first steps in the parting out of AA, similar to Pan Am selling its TPAC routes and TWA selling three London routes. When the carrier is run by financial 'engineers' instead of network engineers, watch out.


Well Tim Dunn does make a habit out of saying AA is going bankrupt.

You've seen AA's current cash situation. They just added enough new debt since this started to require $500 million in additional interest payments a year. Not exactly at a position where they can take continued loses in NYC/LAX right now.

Back when COVID first hit, I said they were going to downsize dramatically in JFK/LGA/LAX and some people disagreed with me. Well, it looks like this is exactly what's happening. At least, they got a couple of partners to help them keep their network in tact. It was either this or abandoning the markets entirely.


Zero proof any of this is happening, yet you continue to make things up about how its true. Its so odd.


hmm, that's what Vasu said in AA townhall.

Let's see, AS add markets out of LAX, AA cuts some of the same markets. AA pulling out of a few LGA markets and run fewer than 50 total flights a day out of 3 NY airports, JetBlue doing large NYC expansion. Just wait until the AA/B6 partnership passes through DOT review.

Why don't you give a number on how many flights you think these stations will have by summer 2022 then? I've said JFK at most 50, LGA at most 120 and LAX at most 150.

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