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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 6:24 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
AVB wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
You may be right but such an outcome will mean QF International will not be profitable for years to come. It wil be unable to shed costs fast enough to cope with such a massive drop in revenue. Such an outcome will require QF to retrench many thousands of employees.


I believe there will be redundancies announced soon. Don’t know the exact numbers but quite a few international cabin crew, pilots and international ops for a much smaller long haul. It’s highly probable 6 A380’s to leave the fleet... watch this space.


Have they got enough 787s to cover the US West Coast, Dallas, New York services, Santiago, and Heathrow, not to mention Johannesburg and the seasonal Vancouver service? Asia is covered with their 330s and their South pacific services with their 737s not that Qantas has a rely big presence in the South Pacific.

Some of those services may not come back. Realistically, between now and the end of the year, all that will operate will be some services to NZ and maybe a skeleton service to Singapore from around September. As 2021 opens up, hopefully ports such as LHR (maybe daily from SYD initially with a 789 growing to an A380 then extra service from MEL) and LAX (maybe daily with an A380), JNB (5 times a week with 789) and HKG (maybe daily with A330) will come back. SFO, SCL, DFW, CGK, PVG etc will not come back quickly at all; probably around this time next year. Short of a vaccine becoming available, JQ's international services to DPS and HKT are probably unlikely to resume even then.
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 6:34 am

Also to add the TransPacific corridor between Australia and the USA may potentially be facing less competitors once COVID restrictions start to ease and borders slowly start to open (it won't happen overnight but it'll happen eventually).

In addition to the questioned futures of both DL and VA on the TransPacific corridor, Reports of UA's recent decision to close the LAX long-haul crew base on the web sparked rumours of them pulling out of SYD-LAX, leaving only their SFO flights.

SYD-LAX may potentially be facing a QF/AA monopoly (with only 1-stop competition from NZ, AC, HA, UA, etc) , ditto with SYD-SFO on UA as both carriers may be looking at retreating to hubs.
 
xiaotung
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 6:46 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Also to add the TransPacific corridor between Australia and the USA may potentially be facing less competitors once COVID restrictions start to ease and borders slowly start to open (it won't happen overnight but it'll happen eventually).

In addition to the questioned futures of both DL and VA on the TransPacific corridor, Reports of UA's recent decision to close the LAX long-haul crew base on the web sparked rumours of them pulling out of SYD-LAX, leaving only their SFO flights.

SYD-LAX may potentially be facing a QF/AA monopoly (with only 1-stop competition from NZ, AC, HA, UA, etc) , ditto with SYD-SFO on UA as both carriers may be looking at retreating to hubs.


I would love NZ taking over and codesharing with UA on SYD-LAX if NZ found it hard to fill all their widebodies with not enough demand ex AKL.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 7:37 am

xiaotung wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Also to add the TransPacific corridor between Australia and the USA may potentially be facing less competitors once COVID restrictions start to ease and borders slowly start to open (it won't happen overnight but it'll happen eventually).

In addition to the questioned futures of both DL and VA on the TransPacific corridor, Reports of UA's recent decision to close the LAX long-haul crew base on the web sparked rumours of them pulling out of SYD-LAX, leaving only their SFO flights.

SYD-LAX may potentially be facing a QF/AA monopoly (with only 1-stop competition from NZ, AC, HA, UA, etc) , ditto with SYD-SFO on UA as both carriers may be looking at retreating to hubs.


I would love NZ taking over and codesharing with UA on SYD-LAX if NZ found it hard to fill all their widebodies with not enough demand ex AKL.


Surely if NZ couldn’t fill the widebodies ex AKL with SYD feed they couldn’t fill one in SYD-LAX non stop? Sure it’s a bigger market ex SYD but it doesn’t make sense to me, NZ will use a 789 ex AKL if they can’t fill a 77W, and park or retire the 77W.
 
xiaotung
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 7:50 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
xiaotung wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Also to add the TransPacific corridor between Australia and the USA may potentially be facing less competitors once COVID restrictions start to ease and borders slowly start to open (it won't happen overnight but it'll happen eventually).

In addition to the questioned futures of both DL and VA on the TransPacific corridor, Reports of UA's recent decision to close the LAX long-haul crew base on the web sparked rumours of them pulling out of SYD-LAX, leaving only their SFO flights.

SYD-LAX may potentially be facing a QF/AA monopoly (with only 1-stop competition from NZ, AC, HA, UA, etc) , ditto with SYD-SFO on UA as both carriers may be looking at retreating to hubs.


I would love NZ taking over and codesharing with UA on SYD-LAX if NZ found it hard to fill all their widebodies with not enough demand ex AKL.


Surely if NZ couldn’t fill the widebodies ex AKL with SYD feed they couldn’t fill one in SYD-LAX non stop? Sure it’s a bigger market ex SYD but it doesn’t make sense to me, NZ will use a 789 ex AKL if they can’t fill a 77W, and park or retire the 77W.


I am not comparing SYD-LAX with AKL-LAX. If NZ can't go back to EZE with the rest of the long haul network not running in full capacity, there is going to be supply surplus. Is parking aircraft better than doing SYD-LAX? If UA and VA both pulled out, surely there could be a business case.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 8:03 am

xiaotung wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
xiaotung wrote:

I would love NZ taking over and codesharing with UA on SYD-LAX if NZ found it hard to fill all their widebodies with not enough demand ex AKL.


Surely if NZ couldn’t fill the widebodies ex AKL with SYD feed they couldn’t fill one in SYD-LAX non stop? Sure it’s a bigger market ex SYD but it doesn’t make sense to me, NZ will use a 789 ex AKL if they can’t fill a 77W, and park or retire the 77W.


I am not comparing SYD-LAX with AKL-LAX. If NZ can't go back to EZE with the rest of the long haul network not running in full capacity, there is going to be supply surplus. Is parking aircraft better than doing SYD-LAX? If UA and VA both pulled out, surely there could be a business case.


If DL also proceeds to axe SYD-LAX. there might (or might not) be a business case for NZ, if it's DL only (and/or flying on behalf of a VA Mk 2 'alliance') the business case for NZ reduces.
 
Deano969
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 8:11 am

A lot of theory's as to when international routes will open up
Aside from NZ and the proposed bubble
Most have mentioned US, UK and Asia
Please have a look at the covid-19 numbers for these countries
US over 1.2 million and add 25000-30000 new cases per day
UK nearly 200,000 with 4000-4000 daily new cases
Even Singapore with nearly 20000 cases and adding around 500 per day

I don't see these out of control numbers being addressed for over a year especially the US and UK
Australia may well end the travel ban to such countries, but they will ( or should ) keep the 14 day isolation stipulation in place
So forget any tourism and 95% of business trips
Plus, who from Oz would want to take the risk of traveling to any of these countries and pick up the virus

I think that some are being somewhat optimistic in thinking that international flights will return for QF any time soon

I have left out China as their virus numbers can be taken with a grain of salt...
 
QF742
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 8:12 am

QF’s international network will presumably continue operating as a skeleton network for quite some time. My guess is NZ will open up before the end of the year and I think you will see MEL/SYD/BNE connected with AKL and ZQN. Not necessarily all daily. People will want holidays around Spring / Xmas and NZ will be the only international option!

Once border closures ease and possible vaccine, I imagine the govt will continue to subsidise QF international services. This will be vital to restore international tourism and trade. I expect you will see SYD/MEL/BNE-LAX/SIN/HKG/HND (again, not all daily) and PER-LHR. Possibly a couple weekly flights to JNB/SCL ex SYD.

Depending on how the virus tracks and if there is a vaccine, I don’t see why a whole lot more routes wouldn’t open back up. Low air fares and hotels desperate for revenue will surely stimulate leisure traffic at the very least.

I think it will take years for there to be expansion beyond this point, largely because airlines that do survive will be heavily indebted and have limited capex capability.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 8:27 am

I read today among a variety of news sources that the “Trans-Tasman Bubble”, currently being discussed between Australia and New Zealand, may be widened to become a “South Pacific Bubble”. Many small states in this region including, but not limited to, Fiji, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Cook Islands, would be included within the zone to encourage increased financial activities such as physical trade and tourism.

A CNN political commentator also suggested it would be a strong geopolitical move by both Australia and New Zealand to counter efforts by the Chinese government who in recent years has been making influences to many of those countries through cheap loans or building infrastructure.

Personally I don’t want to venture into the political debate as I see it being far to complex and also out of the scope of an airline forum.

However the idea of escaping some of the winter coldness in Fiji does seem appealing.

**edit: typos**
Cheers,
C1973


B707, B717, B727, B734, B737, B738, B743, B77W, A300, A320, A332, A333, A339, A388, BAe146, Cessna 206.
 
ArtV
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 8:46 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
I read today among a variety of news sources that the “Trans-Tasman Bubble”, currently being discussed between Australia and New Zealand, may be widened to become a “South Pacific Bubble”. Many small states in this region including, but not limited to, Fiji, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Cook Islands, would be included within the zone to encourage increased financial activities such as physical trade and tourism.

A CNN political commentator also suggested it would be a strong geopolitical move by both Australia and New Zealand to counter efforts by the Chinese government who in recent years has been making influences to many of those countries through cheap loans or building infrastructure.

Personally I don’t want to venture into the political debate as I see it being far to complex and also out of the scope of an airline forum.

However the idea of escaping some of the winter coldness in Fiji does seem appealing.

**edit: typos**


From the "South Pacific Bubble", you can then move to include other countries that have limited Covid cases - Taiwan and Vietnam....both have stopped community transmission and are the leading countries in the world containing the virus, and they would also play into your (non-political debate) scenario too.

All hypothetical, but it does give a model on how international travel could restart, in small steps, with limited community risks.
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 8:48 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
I read today among a variety of news sources that the “Trans-Tasman Bubble”, currently being discussed between Australia and New Zealand, may be widened to become a “South Pacific Bubble”. Many small states in this region including, but not limited to, Fiji, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Cook Islands, would be included within the zone to encourage increased financial activities such as physical trade and tourism.

A CNN political commentator also suggested it would be a strong geopolitical move by both Australia and New Zealand to counter efforts by the Chinese government who in recent years has been making influences to many of those countries through cheap loans or building infrastructure.

Personally I don’t want to venture into the political debate as I see it being far to complex and also out of the scope of an airline forum.

However the idea of escaping some of the winter coldness in Fiji does seem appealing.

**edit: typos**


The biggest thing would be making sure that mainland (Australia/New Zealand) had an very low chance of importing any cases into the Pacific Islands. I'd expect the trail run would be open the Tasman first, then look to including the Pacific Islands, I could see that one that want to protect the Pacific Islands from COVID-19, but at the same time they need tourist from Australia and New Zealand to provide them with income.

The Cook Islands would be simple to include in the Tasman Bubble, they are technically an New Zealand overseas terorirty.
 
chonetsao
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 8:49 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
I read today among a variety of news sources that the “Trans-Tasman Bubble”, currently being discussed between Australia and New Zealand, may be widened to become a “South Pacific Bubble”. Many small states in this region including, but not limited to, Fiji, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Cook Islands, would be included within the zone to encourage increased financial activities such as physical trade and tourism.

**edit: typos**


I think this concept will work for 2020. When countries slowly come out from the lock down, to encourage recovery, a certain degree of flexibility in international travel should be on the agenda.

Thus, a group of country that trust each other's methods and results could come together and open to each other on certain conditions, sort like [Trusted Traveller] groups. With several trusted countries open to each other, it can slowly get expanded to a bigger pool of countries.

Thus I hope this Pacific Bubble would work out great. And it could get expanded to certain American and European countries. And realistically, I think this could be the new norm for 2020 and the early part of 2021 before total open up.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 8:54 am

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-boss-alan-joyce-signals-a-battle-of-the-balance-sheets-with-virgin-20200505-p54q0o.html

The above opinion article in Fairfax press compares QFs strong liquidity against VA may change once a sale has completed. It suggests that the born again Virgin may be more attractive financially because of leaner debt.

I’m not personally certain how to comprehend that given that I’m no expert on the administration process, and what may be the business model a new buyer may adopt.

Another point raised, both positively and negatively, is an opportunity for a carrier such as QF to look for “bargains” given that manufacturers may have trouble offloading new aircraft given the current state of the industry.

It was suggested that Alan Joyce has been “CAPEX shy” during his reign as CEO. I’m not certain that I can agree totally with that assertion given the number of A32Xneos bought it the last few years.

But if there is intent by QF for a more rapid phase out of the A380, would a purchase of a small fleet of A35Ks as a replacement be seen as risk averse? To me the advantages could be: 1) cheaper purchase price, potentially; 2) more efficient aircraft for long haul operations; 3) well established familiarity and fleet integration prior to PS. And further to the last point, when sufficient air travel exists to make a decision on PS, an A350neo may be not that far off.

Of course the obvious disadvantages are the CAPEX outlay to buy the plane and the risk that there may not be enough passengers to fill them.
Cheers,
C1973


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myki
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 8:55 am

What would need to be considered once going further than an Australia-New Zealand bubble is that everyone agrees.

For example, if Australia and New Zealand is expanded to include Vanuatu, great. If Vanuatu want to also include Fiji but New Zealand doesn't, what happens then? Kick Vanuatu out? Tough decisions ahead to be made, but yes I agree that Taiwan and Vietnam would be easy ones to include, especially being Taiwan is not the most common of places for Australian tourists to go, so perhaps new adventures await!
 
ArtV
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 8:58 am

myki wrote:
What would need to be considered once going further than an Australia-New Zealand bubble is that everyone agrees.

For example, if Australia and New Zealand is expanded to include Vanuatu, great. If Vanuatu want to also include Fiji but New Zealand doesn't, what happens then? Kick Vanuatu out? Tough decisions ahead to be made, but yes I agree that Taiwan and Vietnam would be easy ones to include, especially being Taiwan is not the most common of places for Australian tourists to go, so perhaps new adventures await!


It would give somewhere for the JQ 787's to fly to (Taiwan and Vietnam).
 
NZ801
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 9:02 am

Tasmania is considering flights from Hobart to NZ.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... tml#p50gqb
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 9:11 am

Not sure why, but it won’t let me re-edit my original post.

CNN article I was referring to:

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html
Cheers,
C1973


B707, B717, B727, B734, B737, B738, B743, B77W, A300, A320, A332, A333, A339, A388, BAe146, Cessna 206.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 9:24 am

myki wrote:
What would need to be considered once going further than an Australia-New Zealand bubble is that everyone agrees.

For example, if Australia and New Zealand is expanded to include Vanuatu, great. If Vanuatu want to also include Fiji but New Zealand doesn't, what happens then? Kick Vanuatu out? Tough decisions ahead to be made, but yes I agree that Taiwan and Vietnam would be easy ones to include, especially being Taiwan is not the most common of places for Australian tourists to go, so perhaps new adventures await!

I suspect that an NZ- Australia bubble would establish ground rules in terms of process, checks etc. If other countries wanted to join it would mean accepting the rules and the existing membership of the bubble. I don't see how a newcomer could expect to renegotiate the ground rules. They're either in or out. And the economic pressure suggests to me that they'd accept the rules and be in. It's more likely that the existing membership might take issue with potential applicants IMO.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
xiaotung
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 10:00 am

DavidByrne wrote:
myki wrote:
What would need to be considered once going further than an Australia-New Zealand bubble is that everyone agrees.

For example, if Australia and New Zealand is expanded to include Vanuatu, great. If Vanuatu want to also include Fiji but New Zealand doesn't, what happens then? Kick Vanuatu out? Tough decisions ahead to be made, but yes I agree that Taiwan and Vietnam would be easy ones to include, especially being Taiwan is not the most common of places for Australian tourists to go, so perhaps new adventures await!

I suspect that an NZ- Australia bubble would establish ground rules in terms of process, checks etc. If other countries wanted to join it would mean accepting the rules and the existing membership of the bubble. I don't see how a newcomer could expect to renegotiate the ground rules. They're either in or out. And the economic pressure suggests to me that they'd accept the rules and be in. It's more likely that the existing membership might take issue with potential applicants IMO.


That's a good point. One of the reasons why Australia and New Zealand can establish a travel bubble is the ability and experience to conduct contact tracing coming back from mitigation to containment. The ground rules should not just be about the number of existing cases but what you do if there is a cluster of new cases. The amount of testing Pacific Island nations do is among the lowest in the world. I can see making Singapore part of the bubble an easier decision than Pacific Islands.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 10:18 am

DavidByrne wrote:
myki wrote:
What would need to be considered once going further than an Australia-New Zealand bubble is that everyone agrees.

For example, if Australia and New Zealand is expanded to include Vanuatu, great. If Vanuatu want to also include Fiji but New Zealand doesn't, what happens then? Kick Vanuatu out? Tough decisions ahead to be made, but yes I agree that Taiwan and Vietnam would be easy ones to include, especially being Taiwan is not the most common of places for Australian tourists to go, so perhaps new adventures await!

I suspect that an NZ- Australia bubble would establish ground rules in terms of process, checks etc. If other countries wanted to join it would mean accepting the rules and the existing membership of the bubble. I don't see how a newcomer could expect to renegotiate the ground rules. They're either in or out. And the economic pressure suggests to me that they'd accept the rules and be in. It's more likely that the existing membership might take issue with potential applicants IMO.

Including Pacific nations would require bankrolling from Australia and NZ. These nations largely rely on aid and the current situation including the removal of cruise traffic will have only made their circumstances worse. They do need the support of the wealthier countries otherwise their situation will just decline further.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 10:26 am

xiaotung wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
xiaotung wrote:

I would love NZ taking over and codesharing with UA on SYD-LAX if NZ found it hard to fill all their widebodies with not enough demand ex AKL.


Surely if NZ couldn’t fill the widebodies ex AKL with SYD feed they couldn’t fill one in SYD-LAX non stop? Sure it’s a bigger market ex SYD but it doesn’t make sense to me, NZ will use a 789 ex AKL if they can’t fill a 77W, and park or retire the 77W.


I am not comparing SYD-LAX with AKL-LAX. If NZ can't go back to EZE with the rest of the long haul network not running in full capacity, there is going to be supply surplus. Is parking aircraft better than doing SYD-LAX? If UA and VA both pulled out, surely there could be a business case.


What is NZ's business plan or revised business plan going to look like? SYD-LAX would bring in revenue but is it enough on a 14-15hr 5th freedom flight to make it worth it? The network is going to be running at "full" capacity for a long time, I would say It is more likely aircraft will be parked than 5th freedom routes being added. We will wait and see what happens with UA and VA on the route but I still doubt NZ will do anything.

The trans tasman bubble might be interesting in the mean time when that gets going, could we see the likes of EK doing a freight run DXB-MEL/SYD then a pax run across the Tasman? Same for say TG.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 10:33 am

The trans tasman bubble might be interesting in the mean time when that gets going, could we see the likes of EK doing a freight run DXB-MEL/SYD then a pax run across the Tasman? Same for say TG.

I doubt this would make any sense. How do you manage cabin crews under such an arrangement? There isn't enough money in trans-Tasman to even bother. There is no guarantee the Tasman bubble will generate a Tasman boom; I tend to suspect it will be quite light compared with historical levels particularly if the arrangement is everyone has to wear masks and be serviced by crew in hazard suits.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 10:38 am

tullamarine wrote:
The trans tasman bubble might be interesting in the mean time when that gets going, could we see the likes of EK doing a freight run DXB-MEL/SYD then a pax run across the Tasman? Same for say TG.

I doubt this would make any sense. How do you manage cabin crews under such an arrangement? There isn't enough money in trans-Tasman to even bother. There is no guarantee the Tasman bubble will generate a Tasman boom; I tend to suspect it will be quite light compared with historical levels particularly if the arrangement is everyone has to wear masks and be serviced by crew in hazard suits.


Crew is one thing. It’s revenue and some airlines will be doing freight runs already. EK are doing MEL-AKL.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 10:54 am

UA crew in 747 days used to often fly LAX-SYD-SFO-SYD-LAX so I don't see there being really any substance to the SYD-LAX route permanently going and NZ taking their place.
 
Captdasbomb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 11:29 am

Deano969 wrote:
A lot of theory's as to when international routes will open up
Aside from NZ and the proposed bubble
Most have mentioned US, UK and Asia
Please have a look at the covid-19 numbers for these countries
US over 1.2 million and add 25000-30000 new cases per day
UK nearly 200,000 with 4000-4000 daily new cases
Even Singapore with nearly 20000 cases and adding around 500 per day

I don't see these out of control numbers being addressed for over a year especially the US and UK
Australia may well end the travel ban to such countries, but they will ( or should ) keep the 14 day isolation stipulation in place
So forget any tourism and 95% of business trips
Plus, who from Oz would want to take the risk of traveling to any of these countries and pick up the virus

I think that some are being somewhat optimistic in thinking that international flights will return for QF any time soon

I have left out China as their virus numbers can be taken with a grain of salt...


I would be very surprised if Peter Dutton lifts the travel restrictions to US or UK before the end of winter. August/September maybe for New Zealand & the Pacific. Would expect the states lifting their internal travel restrictions from next week first & give it 3-4 weeks to monitor stuff then domestic interstate resume in June/July.
 
Flyingsottsman
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 11:39 am

tullamarine wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
myki wrote:
What would need to be considered once going further than an Australia-New Zealand bubble is that everyone agrees.

For example, if Australia and New Zealand is expanded to include Vanuatu, great. If Vanuatu want to also include Fiji but New Zealand doesn't, what happens then? Kick Vanuatu out? Tough decisions ahead to be made, but yes I agree that Taiwan and Vietnam would be easy ones to include, especially being Taiwan is not the most common of places for Australian tourists to go, so perhaps new adventures await!

I suspect that an NZ- Australia bubble would establish ground rules in terms of process, checks etc. If other countries wanted to join it would mean accepting the rules and the existing membership of the bubble. I don't see how a newcomer could expect to renegotiate the ground rules. They're either in or out. And the economic pressure suggests to me that they'd accept the rules and be in. It's more likely that the existing membership might take issue with potential applicants IMO.

Including Pacific nations would require bankrolling from Australia and NZ. These nations largely rely on aid and the current situation including the removal of cruise traffic will have only made their circumstances worse. They do need the support of the wealthier countries otherwise their situation will just decline further.


I recon the Governments of Australia and New Zealand will help them out to get back on their feet, especially if they are still concerned about the Chinese influence in the South Pacific.
 
dredgy
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 11:57 am

Captdasbomb wrote:
I would be very surprised if Peter Dutton lifts the travel restrictions to US or UK before the end of winter. August/September maybe for New Zealand & the Pacific. Would expect the states lifting their internal travel restrictions from next week first & give it 3-4 weeks to monitor stuff then domestic interstate resume in June/July.


US in particular is already reopening; which is going to drag it out there and I think it would be moronic to reinstate regular flights there.

However I'm more optimistic about the speed of recovery domestically (I live outside a major city and life is almost normal here so probably colours my view). I think by the end of July we'll have domestic flights and flights to NZ. I hope the South Pacific too. Depending on any potential second wave, we're on good track to have close to 0 cases by then - we have 960 now.

And as I own a restaurant I'm actually extremely optimistic about post-virus recovery. We opened bookings for September last week and were fully booked in a few days (at limited capacity). Even enquiries for weddings and the like, so while I don't know if a September reopening will be possible, once we do reopen we're looking to do great trade. Which gives me faith in a fast recovery.
 
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VCVSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Tue May 05, 2020 5:49 pm

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
But if there is intent by QF for a more rapid phase out of the A380, would a purchase of a small fleet of A35Ks as a replacement be seen as risk averse? To me the advantages could be: 1) cheaper purchase price, potentially; 2) more efficient aircraft for long haul operations; 3) well established familiarity and fleet integration prior to PS. And further to the last point, when sufficient air travel exists to make a decision on PS, an A350neo may be not that far off.

Of course the obvious disadvantages are the CAPEX outlay to buy the plane and the risk that there may not be enough passengers to fill them.


With Project Sunrise delayed indefinitely at this point, buying a sublet of A35Ks would be unlikely (in my personal opinion). It does appear that Qantas is exploring their options at the moment regarding the retirement of the A380. Also, on a semi-related topic, it looks like they will be keeping their 747-400s until at least late October. Today, a one time MEL-HND service was filed (see link below) for October 19, 2020.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -oct-2020/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Just a normal teenager juggling AP classes and airplanes. No biggie • Love the 747 & 777-9 • Farewell KLM 747-400M
 
VH-BZF
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 4:25 am

VH-BZF wrote:
QF's minimal international network will continue I understand in a smaller way, with MEL-LAX service launching and MEL-LHR with tech stop in Perth (QF9/10) will remain. HKG & AKL will move to freight only on A330-300's in the short term. Not sure about whether BNE-LAX remains or not?


Confirmed another 4 weeks of international government sanctioned flights that Qantas will operate, including 2 x weekly MEL-LHR via PER and MEL-LAX x 1 weekly (replacing BNE-LAX), with the possibility of further government charters such as the flights already operated to LIM, EZE and JNB, with Delhi charters departing this week. B787's will continue to operate this minimum flying with A330-300's flying freight flights.

BZF
Ansett Australia - (was) One of the worlds great airlines!
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 7:00 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Also to add the TransPacific corridor between Australia and the USA may potentially be facing less competitors once COVID restrictions start to ease and borders slowly start to open (it won't happen overnight but it'll happen eventually).

In addition to the questioned futures of both DL and VA on the TransPacific corridor, Reports of UA's recent decision to close the LAX long-haul crew base on the web sparked rumours of them pulling out of SYD-LAX, leaving only their SFO flights.

SYD-LAX may potentially be facing a QF/AA monopoly (with only 1-stop competition from NZ, AC, HA, UA, etc) , ditto with SYD-SFO on UA as both carriers may be looking at retreating to hubs.


Perhaps the UA move will allow DL to stay on LAX-SYD? Ie DL LAX-SYD and UA SFO-SYD (with QF on both, and who knows what BNE and MEL might have)

It would be interesting to see the ACCC position on the AA/QF JV post corona and if it can be withdrawn given the change in circumstances?
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 7:27 am

qf2220 wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Also to add the TransPacific corridor between Australia and the USA may potentially be facing less competitors once COVID restrictions start to ease and borders slowly start to open (it won't happen overnight but it'll happen eventually).

In addition to the questioned futures of both DL and VA on the TransPacific corridor, Reports of UA's recent decision to close the LAX long-haul crew base on the web sparked rumours of them pulling out of SYD-LAX, leaving only their SFO flights.

SYD-LAX may potentially be facing a QF/AA monopoly (with only 1-stop competition from NZ, AC, HA, UA, etc) , ditto with SYD-SFO on UA as both carriers may be looking at retreating to hubs.


Perhaps the UA move will allow DL to stay on LAX-SYD? Ie DL LAX-SYD and UA SFO-SYD (with QF on both, and who knows what BNE and MEL might have)

It would be interesting to see the ACCC position on the AA/QF JV post corona and if it can be withdrawn given the change in circumstances?

Maybe we should wait to see if there actually is a UA move. At the moment it is a supposition based on a rumour.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 8:40 am

tullamarine wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Also to add the TransPacific corridor between Australia and the USA may potentially be facing less competitors once COVID restrictions start to ease and borders slowly start to open (it won't happen overnight but it'll happen eventually).

In addition to the questioned futures of both DL and VA on the TransPacific corridor, Reports of UA's recent decision to close the LAX long-haul crew base on the web sparked rumours of them pulling out of SYD-LAX, leaving only their SFO flights.

SYD-LAX may potentially be facing a QF/AA monopoly (with only 1-stop competition from NZ, AC, HA, UA, etc) , ditto with SYD-SFO on UA as both carriers may be looking at retreating to hubs.


Perhaps the UA move will allow DL to stay on LAX-SYD? Ie DL LAX-SYD and UA SFO-SYD (with QF on both, and who knows what BNE and MEL might have)

It would be interesting to see the ACCC position on the AA/QF JV post corona and if it can be withdrawn given the change in circumstances?

Maybe we should wait to see if there actually is a UA move. At the moment it is a supposition based on a rumour.


Only thing reported to be confirmed is UA closing their LAX long-haul crew base unti 'further notice'. Whether if they get rid of their remaining long-haul flights out of there (NRT, LHR, SYD) is another question entirely.

https://paxex.aero/2020/05/united-airli ... workhorse/
 
Deano969
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 9:02 am

My prediction
Domestic flights will return and as interstate border restrictions are relaxed, perhaps July-August as cv-19 will me more prevalent in the colder months. Any time earlier than this would be extremely risky
New Zealand and Pacific would be as above
Asia will depend on how their cv-19 numbers trend but one would think that some safer destinations like south Korea and Japan will be just prior to Christmas
South Africa had a late start to cv-19 cases and is likely grossly under-reported, plus heading into winter, this will be a no go for at least 12 months same goes for South America
North America, Canada will resume before the USA, but still, this will be like September 2021, as for the US, aside from a 2-3 times weekly service, it will be 2022 sometime, if they ever do get this cv-19 under control, but the US is heading down the path of 100% infections and realistically 14 day isolation will be the norm, thus killing off inbound, and outbound returns will be the same even if a vaccine is found as it will not be 100% effective for everyone
Europe and the UK will sit somewhere between US and Canada

Not a rosy picture and I would like to be proven wrong, but we are yet to see a mutation in this virus that has been predicted to be deadlier than the original, this will likely surface after the northern winter

Living in this country we are truly lucky to have dodged the bullet, our government acted swiftly considering what they were faced with
Just imagine being informed of what was coming and dealing with that.....
What they had to do with tourism, immigration and shutting down the economy and all in such a short period of time
Look at the result, we are the envy of most of the world
I truly hope that the government does free up Australia for business and domestic travel sooner rather than later, but, I also hope they keep our boarders shut to any country that posed a cv-19 risk to Australia

Cheers
 
Williamsb747
Posts: 143
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 11:05 am

Deano969 wrote:
My prediction
Domestic flights will return and as interstate border restrictions are relaxed, perhaps July-August as cv-19 will me more prevalent in the colder months. Any time earlier than this would be extremely risky
New Zealand and Pacific would be as above
Asia will depend on how their cv-19 numbers trend but one would think that some safer destinations like south Korea and Japan will be just prior to Christmas
South Africa had a late start to cv-19 cases and is likely grossly under-reported, plus heading into winter, this will be a no go for at least 12 months same goes for South America
North America, Canada will resume before the USA, but still, this will be like September 2021, as for the US, aside from a 2-3 times weekly service, it will be 2022 sometime, if they ever do get this cv-19 under control, but the US is heading down the path of 100% infections and realistically 14 day isolation will be the norm, thus killing off inbound, and outbound returns will be the same even if a vaccine is found as it will not be 100% effective for everyone
Europe and the UK will sit somewhere between US and Canada

Not a rosy picture and I would like to be proven wrong, but we are yet to see a mutation in this virus that has been predicted to be deadlier than the original, this will likely surface after the northern winter

Living in this country we are truly lucky to have dodged the bullet, our government acted swiftly considering what they were faced with
Just imagine being informed of what was coming and dealing with that.....
What they had to do with tourism, immigration and shutting down the economy and all in such a short period of time
Look at the result, we are the envy of most of the world
I truly hope that the government does free up Australia for business and domestic travel sooner rather than later, but, I also hope they keep our boarders shut to any country that posed a cv-19 risk to Australia

Cheers


"Grossly under-reported" Care to explain your reasoning or is it just because it is 'Africa'?

I for one predict the Australian domestic and New Zealand market to open up July latest
Canadian market to resume September 2020 and the opening up of the US well into 2021 at the earliest
South America around December 2020 bar Brazil which I forsee opening up beginning 2021
South Africa probably September/October 2020
Europe around the October mark as well
Asia will definitely be bit by bit, but I'm not quite sure when.

But alas Covid-19 is forever changing, so who nows what lies well into the future.


Williams-
B747>A340>A350>B777>MD11>B767>B757>MD88/90>B787>A380>A330>A220>A320>B737.
CPT JNB
 
Aviator34ID
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 12:50 pm

What is the point of this "I think this market will open in June, that market will definitely open in July, I am positive something else will happen no later than December and so on."

It is all just baseless speculation at the moment.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 12:14 am

ACCC says it'll be keeping a very close eye on the $19 SYD-MEL JQ fares suggested by Alan Joyce to promote a restart of domestic travel in order to ensure this doesn't clash with the reborn and relaunched Virgin Australia and see that airline 'killed at birth' by cheap airfares.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 54qgo.html
 
JQ321
Posts: 152
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 12:59 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
ACCC says it'll be keeping a very close eye on the $19 SYD-MEL JQ fares suggested by Alan Joyce to promote a restart of domestic travel in order to ensure this doesn't clash with the reborn and relaunched Virgin Australia and see that airline 'killed at birth' by cheap airfares.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 54qgo.html

This is ridiculous. As long as QF isn't dumping capacity, allow them to stimulate the economy. If VA MKII can't survive allow a better financially competitive and viable airline take it's place.
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 613
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 1:09 am

This editor from PointsHacks argues the costs and compares the costs of either remaining a full service or reverting back to a straight domestic LCC (meaning selling off Lounges, removing J, selling Velocity, dissolving Tigerair, etc).

He also outlines the international operations, the losses and if 'VA mk 2" was to remain full-service, why international should be reduced to only the profitable routes with strong partnerships on the other end (namely singling out AKL and LAX) 'if' the succesful bidder is a non-LCC outfit.

Title: Virgin Australia v2.0 full-service or LCC? Why only one of these makes sense
https://www.pointhacks.com.au/virgin-au ... nistration
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2561
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 1:32 am

JQ321 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
ACCC says it'll be keeping a very close eye on the $19 SYD-MEL JQ fares suggested by Alan Joyce to promote a restart of domestic travel in order to ensure this doesn't clash with the reborn and relaunched Virgin Australia and see that airline 'killed at birth' by cheap airfares.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 54qgo.html

This is ridiculous. As long as QF isn't dumping capacity, allow them to stimulate the economy. If VA MKII can't survive allow a better financially competitive and viable airline take it's place.

They can sell $19 fares but if this action is clearly uneconomic and predatory in nature, the ACCC will take action. This is not a new interpretation; this has been part of Trade Practices for years. No one seriously believes JQ can profitably offer $19 fares unless we are talking about only very few seats at the end of an otherwise profitable yield curve. All airlines have occassionally sold a few seats at very low prices to stimulate potential travellers. If JQ are suddenly selling 100 seats on an A320 at $19, eyebrows will be raised.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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qf2220
Posts: 1974
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 1:39 am

JQ321 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
ACCC says it'll be keeping a very close eye on the $19 SYD-MEL JQ fares suggested by Alan Joyce to promote a restart of domestic travel in order to ensure this doesn't clash with the reborn and relaunched Virgin Australia and see that airline 'killed at birth' by cheap airfares.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 54qgo.html

This is ridiculous. As long as QF isn't dumping capacity, allow them to stimulate the economy. If VA MKII can't survive allow a better financially competitive and viable airline take it's place.


At $19 per seat (assuming for entire planes worth of these fares) how can it not be dumping capacity?
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 1:50 am

SCFlyer wrote:
This editor from PointsHacks argues the costs and compares the costs of either remaining a full service or reverting back to a straight domestic LCC (meaning selling off Lounges, removing J, selling Velocity, dissolving Tigerair, etc).


Yes, because a guy who runs a site that's all about frequent flyer points and credit card churning is therefore qualified to be an expert aviation analyst and know all about Virgin Australia Mk II should run, has insight into all the costs etc. I think almost anyone here would know more than that bloke.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 3:24 am

Agree he's got a natural bias to a FSC with a points program.

But I think he does make some points
Namely that Velocity has value, and it loses some of that value as you head towards an LCC.
And that the golden days of Virgin Blue were in a very different competitive environment - a gap created by Ansett and no or a very small Jetstar
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 1841
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 4:38 am

qf2220 wrote:
JQ321 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
ACCC says it'll be keeping a very close eye on the $19 SYD-MEL JQ fares suggested by Alan Joyce to promote a restart of domestic travel in order to ensure this doesn't clash with the reborn and relaunched Virgin Australia and see that airline 'killed at birth' by cheap airfares.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 54qgo.html

This is ridiculous. As long as QF isn't dumping capacity, allow them to stimulate the economy. If VA MKII can't survive allow a better financially competitive and viable airline take it's place.


At $19 per seat (assuming for entire planes worth of these fares) how can it not be dumping capacity?

IIRC both JQ and TT ran $19 promotions before so honestly this is nothing new. Although this was probably 4 or 5 years ago now.

Michael
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 5:35 am

And fuel is back at record lows, so airfares should be a lot cheaper, even ignoring the need to stimulate demand
 
zkncj
Posts: 3893
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 6:07 am

Williamsb747 wrote:
I for one predict the Australian domestic and New Zealand market to open up July latest-


New Zealand domestic travel could be back operating as early as next as next Thursday morning, subject to what way Monday’s change is alert levels goes. I would expect this will be watched very closely for the Tasman bubble.

Noticed that NZ is currently selling most flights as normal on the Tasman from the start of July. So expecting they must have some inside word of the targeted date.

qf2220 wrote:
JQ321 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
ACCC says it'll be keeping a very close eye on the $19 SYD-MEL JQ fares suggested by Alan Joyce to promote a restart of domestic travel in order to ensure this doesn't clash with the reborn and relaunched Virgin Australia and see that airline 'killed at birth' by cheap airfares.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 54qgo.html

This is ridiculous. As long as QF isn't dumping capacity, allow them to stimulate the economy. If VA MKII can't survive allow a better financially competitive and viable airline take it's place.


At $19 per seat (assuming for entire planes worth of these fares) how can it not be dumping capacity?


$19 isn’t that cheap, in the weeks leading up to the lockdown NZ was selling AKL-MEL for $69 for travel dates till the end of 2020.

It’s also an pretty standard domestic sale fare in New Zealand, can’t see why it should be in Australia too!

JQ would regularly pre covid sell New Zealand domestic fares for $19-29.
 
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Chipmunk1973
Posts: 288
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 6:13 am

moa999 wrote:
And fuel is back at record lows, so airfares should be a lot cheaper, even ignoring the need to stimulate demand


The QF group had actually hedged a lot of their fuel buys when oil was much dearer per barrel. So at the moment it’s costing them more than current prices.
Cheers,
C1973


B707, B717, B727, B734, B737, B738, B743, B77W, A300, A320, A332, A333, A339, A388, BAe146, Cessna 206.
 
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qf2220
Posts: 1974
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 6:15 am

eamondzhang wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
JQ321 wrote:
This is ridiculous. As long as QF isn't dumping capacity, allow them to stimulate the economy. If VA MKII can't survive allow a better financially competitive and viable airline take it's place.


At $19 per seat (assuming for entire planes worth of these fares) how can it not be dumping capacity?

IIRC both JQ and TT ran $19 promotions before so honestly this is nothing new. Although this was probably 4 or 5 years ago now.

Michael


the difference then was that they were the ones without market power so really they could charge whatever they wanted. QF has market power and there are ACCC abilities to prevent market power abuses from being used in exactly this situaiton.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3893
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 6:35 am

qf2220 wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

At $19 per seat (assuming for entire planes worth of these fares) how can it not be dumping capacity?

IIRC both JQ and TT ran $19 promotions before so honestly this is nothing new. Although this was probably 4 or 5 years ago now.

Michael


the difference then was that they were the ones without market power so really they could charge whatever they wanted. QF has market power and there are ACCC abilities to prevent market power abuses from being used in exactly this situaiton.


NZ would often either match or undercut an JQ special, $9 domestic sales aren’t unheard of on NZ/JQ, or further an field looking to Europe 1euro fares are an thing on airlines like RyanAir.

Loss leader fares aren’t an bad thing for the market, they help motivate the market.

An person picking up an $19 SYD-MEL, is still going to do good for the economy. They are definitely going to spend allot more on there trip than just the $19, which otherwise they wouldn’t of spent.

In SYD alone if they took the train they are already paying atleast $18 into NSW.
 
anstar
Posts: 3291
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 3:49 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 6:36 am

zkncj wrote:
Williamsb747 wrote:
I for one predict the Australian domestic and New Zealand market to open up July latest-


New Zealand domestic travel could be back operating as early as next as next Thursday morning, subject to what way Monday’s change is alert levels goes. I would expect this will be watched very closely for the Tasman bubble.

Noticed that NZ is currently selling most flights as normal on the Tasman from the start of July. So expecting they must have some inside word of the targeted date..

QF and JQ were selling their international schedules up until yesterday from June and July... so I wouldn't take it as an indication they have any inside word.

A couple of Australian premiers said in their news conferences today their state borders will be the last thing to open. So if our internal borders remain shut, Im not sure we will open up to NZ.
 
moa999
Posts: 968
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 7:44 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
moa999 wrote:
And fuel is back at record lows, so airfares should be a lot cheaper, even ignoring the need to stimulate demand


The QF group had actually hedged a lot of their fuel buys when oil was much dearer per barrel. So at the moment it’s costing them more than current prices.


The Tuesday announcement said they had $145m exposure to September 2020 which was incorporated in the $40m/month costs. Beyond this it's mostly options and collars.
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