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CriticalPoint
Posts: 1015
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:01 pm

Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

Fri May 01, 2020 5:44 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
If AA (or any of the other major 4 plus B6/AS) really need to layoff staff before September it's going to happen. The airlines will simply say Chapter 11 if we are constrained by the provisions of CARES. Anyone that thinks airlines are going to be flying around 30% load factors while thousands of workers sit home and collect a paycheck have no clue about how the real world works.


The point of CARES was to pay a large portion of the payroll. That money is NOT to be used on daily operations.

So no the airlines that took the grant will not furlough before OCT 1
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 511
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

Fri May 01, 2020 6:35 pm

And you think that’s going to happen? You are naive. There’s going to be sadly massive firing well before September.
 
seatback
Posts: 607
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2002 3:00 am

Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

Fri May 01, 2020 6:50 pm

CIDFlyer wrote:
No hub closures for now. I would say if you’re not in DFW or CLT anything could be up in the air. But that’s just my humble opinion


I would add MIA, PHL and DCA. No way they're giving up LA from Miami and PHL is their only logical TATL gateway. The rest could easily go (PHX & LAX).
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 224
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

Fri May 01, 2020 9:24 pm

On CNBC Website right now (Behind a paywall) -

"Evercore ISI cuts price target for American Airlines to $1, warns debt will crowd out equity"
    300 319 320 321 707 717 720 727 72S 737 73S 734 735 73G 738 739 747 757 762 ARJ B11 C212 CRJ CR2 CR7 CR9 CV5 D8S DC9 D9S D94 D95 D10 DH8 DTO EMB EM2 E135 E145 E190 FH7 F28 F100 FTRIMTR HRN L10 L15 M80 M90 SF3 SWM YS11
     
    F9Animal
    Posts: 4397
    Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:13 am

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Fri May 01, 2020 10:05 pm

    OB1504 wrote:
    Silver1SWA wrote:
    F9Animal wrote:
    That one time Parker said the airline would never lose money ever again..... I'm all for someone being bold, but seriously... To make that claim has to be haunting him.


    Go back to the moment he said that and tell the world what will happen in 2020. You would be the crazy one.


    Even when he first said it, the consensus here was that it was a monumentally stupid thing you say because you never know what will trigger the next downturn overnight.

    viewtopic.php?t=1375009


    I know. Its like saying we will never go a night without a meal. If this situation hasn't opened people's eyes on how bad things can get, I don't know what will.

    I just hope that we will see things come back together soon. I also hope AA comes out of this better. I also hope airlines consider stashing money away and conduct practice drills for major downturns, and have plans of how to weather it. It's like the airline industry has never considered worst case scenarios, and are always caught off guard when it hits the fan. Does that make sense, or am I just babbling? Just my opinion and thoughts of course
    I Am A Different Animal!!
     
    tphuang
    Posts: 4900
    Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Fri May 01, 2020 10:58 pm

    For Evercore cut, this is what Jamie Baker said on the UA call
    “Some investors were disappointed when one of your competitors insisted that they’re wed to their current hub structure,” J.P. Morgan analyst Jamie Baker said during Friday’s call when asking if United might close a hub. “Look I get it, it’s a touchy subject — no one ever comes down and goes ‘yeah, we’re going to close Memphis.'”

    So yeah, AA's performance yesterday was not very comforting. Compared to UA, AA execs seem to just not be prepared for worst case scenarios.
     
    AAplat4life
    Posts: 322
    Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:14 am

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Sat May 02, 2020 4:19 am

    The implication of Evercore’s $1.00 per share target is that AA will be flirting with another Ch 11 bankruptcy filing. It’s not surprising given AA’s much higher debt level than its competitors, resulting in a higher cash burn rate. The next 6 to 9 months should be telling.
     
    acentauri
    Posts: 305
    Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:35 am

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Sat May 02, 2020 5:08 am

    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    On CNBC Website right now (Behind a paywall) -

    "Evercore ISI cuts price target for American Airlines to $1, warns debt will crowd out equity"

    To put this in perspective, it may be wise before "selling the store" to review the referenced Evercore ISI Analyst's Ranking from this ranking service:
    https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/duane-pfennigwerth
     
    LJ
    Posts: 5265
    Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Sat May 02, 2020 6:45 am

    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    On CNBC Website right now (Behind a paywall) -

    "Evercore ISI cuts price target for American Airlines to $1, warns debt will crowd out equity"


    Also available without a paywall

    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/american-air-shares-fall-as-evercore-isi-cuts-price-target-to-a-dollar?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-air-1-price-target-134444429.html
     
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    NWAESC
    Posts: 1442
    Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2007 1:02 pm

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Sat May 02, 2020 11:56 am

    F9Animal wrote:
    It's like the airline industry has never considered worst case scenarios, and are always caught off guard when it hits the fan. Does that make sense, or am I just babbling? Just my opinion and thoughts of course


    They planned for them, but until now, the worst-case scenario(s) was another 9/11. This pandemic has affected companies much much worse.
    "Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
     
    AA747123
    Posts: 283
    Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:15 pm

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Sat May 02, 2020 3:36 pm

    Miamiairport wrote:
    And you think that’s going to happen? You are naive. There’s going to be sadly massive firing well before September.


    Agreed, first of all the CARES act only covers UNION jobs, not management or other non union support staff. AA can fire thousands of them tomorrow and still be within the rules of the CARES act.
     
    PRAirbus
    Posts: 737
    Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 11:59 pm

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Sat May 02, 2020 3:45 pm

    Job cuts in the US Airline industry will happen after September 2020...sad to say but cuts will be in the thousands; unless the government bails out the airlines again. I think there will be another bail out, especially during elections and right before the holidays.
     
    LNCS0930
    Posts: 105
    Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Sat May 02, 2020 4:11 pm

    PRAirbus wrote:
    Job cuts in the US Airline industry will happen after September 2020...sad to say but cuts will be in the thousands; unless the government bails out the airlines again. I think there will be another bail out, especially during elections and right before the holidays.


    I’m in agreement there will be another bailout but it most likely won’t have a no furloughs or layoff stipulation. I believe the fact it’s an election year is behind the fact another bailout will occur but I won’t elaborate any further than that. In addition I believe most of the major airline layoffs actually will occur in early August due to the 1988 Warn Act. These are going to likely be in the thousands so 60 days notice would be required. I believe though that the employees would be paid for that whole 60 days. I highly doubt any carrier lets those people stay working though due to liability. So I would assume most would know by 8/15 of their status starting 10/1
     
    toltommy
    Posts: 2770
    Joined: Tue Dec 09, 2003 9:04 am

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Sat May 02, 2020 5:03 pm

    F9Animal wrote:
    It's like the airline industry has never considered worst case scenarios, and are always caught off guard when it hits the fan. Does that make sense, or am I just babbling? Just my opinion and thoughts of course


    I wouldn't say that you ate babbling, but it's close. If 90 days ago anyone would have thought that an airline had to plan for a 90% reduction in business overnight, even the most unrealistic A.nutter would have found it crazy. If any airline would have made a plan to sit on enough cash to weather a year long economic crash like we've seen, it would have gotten them pilloried. The Street would've made each carrier a hostile takeover target to get at the cash. A.nutters would've been clamoring for fleet renewals and stock buybacks. A.nutters can't even get Doug Parker's loss quote right. He said that AA was positioning the airline to avoid future losses, not simply that the airline would never lose money again. This kind of downturn was unforeseeable.

    Will there be job losses? Of course. But there won't be substantial losses at a US carrier this year. Substantial being the key word. It's an election year. 2021? All bets are off. The employees at all carriers who took long term leaves may want to come back to work once the unemployment and partial pay deals dry up. Fleets have been eliminated to support the Big 3 coming back as smaller carriers. At AA the 190 was supposed to be gone already. AA kept them for capacity due to the MAX grounding. No longer needed. The 767 was gone by the end of the year, replaced by the 787. With little Europe flying, there's no need. Gone. The 757 can be replaced with excess 321 capacity. Gone. The 333? Replaced by excess 789 capacity as they come on line. We haven't seen delivery deferrals yet. It's when those come in large numbers that it'll be time to say that the business isn't coming back.

    Personally, I expect every US major (as defined by the DOT) to take a trip through CH11. Most will have prepackaged deals that allow them to car wash debt and re-emerge immediately. AA paid creditors 100% during their last trip through. While it was the right thing to do, it was also a mistake. Creditors won't be so lucky this time around.
    A300/A310/A319/A320/A321/A332/A333 / 707/712/727/732/733/734/735/738/739/752/753
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    klm672
    Posts: 2563
    Joined: Mon Oct 04, 1999 6:09 am

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Sat May 02, 2020 5:29 pm

    Interesting.. I thought Dougie said "AA would never lose money again".
     
    LNCS0930
    Posts: 105
    Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Sat May 02, 2020 6:17 pm

    klm672 wrote:
    Interesting.. I thought Dougie said "AA would never lose money again".


    In all honesty I’m sure all the other major CEOs thought the same. He was the only one who had the guts to boldly predict it. The way the industry is set up now with so little competition and only really a big 4 there is limited ways in which the carriers can really get in trouble. An oil crisis, a massive terrorist attack, economic downturn, or viral pandemic. All airlines accounted for the possibility of a bird flu pandemic but nobody saw something such as this coming. Baseline vaccines exist should the virulent forms of bird flu mutate to go between humans and vaccines would exist in 90 days or so. The WHO and most world health agencies have been preparing for 20 years or so for it. None of these above scenarios would cause long term or even really risk yearly losses at any carrier. Instead of them taking in 4-5-6 bill they’d likely make 1-2 bill or 700 mill in a bad year if we saw an economy downturn, oil crisis etc. I was one who fully believed carriers might not see losing years again but didn’t see this coming
     
    dfw88
    Posts: 112
    Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:25 pm

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Sat May 02, 2020 9:42 pm

    AA747123 wrote:
    Miamiairport wrote:
    And you think that’s going to happen? You are naive. There’s going to be sadly massive firing well before September.


    Agreed, first of all the CARES act only covers UNION jobs, not management or other non union support staff. AA can fire thousands of them tomorrow and still be within the rules of the CARES act.


    I do not know where this false idea comes from. The bill says nothing about union/non-union. It only says that employee levels need to remain the same or can be decreased by up to 10%. Management and other non-union staff are as safe as anyone else (whatever that may mean) until 1 October.

    Here's the link. You'll find the relevant paragraph at the top of page 517. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6819239-FINAL-FINAL-CARES-ACT.html
     
    747fan
    Posts: 952
    Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 7:40 am

    Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    Sun May 03, 2020 1:24 am

    dfw88 wrote:
    AA747123 wrote:
    Miamiairport wrote:
    And you think that’s going to happen? You are naive. There’s going to be sadly massive firing well before September.


    Agreed, first of all the CARES act only covers UNION jobs, not management or other non union support staff. AA can fire thousands of them tomorrow and still be within the rules of the CARES act.


    I do not know where this false idea comes from. The bill says nothing about union/non-union. It only says that employee levels need to remain the same or can be decreased by up to 10%. Management and other non-union staff are as safe as anyone else (whatever that may mean) until 1 October.

    Here's the link. You'll find the relevant paragraph at the top of page 517. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6819239-FINAL-FINAL-CARES-ACT.html


    I believe this is correct, as otherwise I'd imagine we would've already seen numerous layoffs of non-represented employees, especially Delta with their mostly non-union front line workers. Upper management (I believe "director" level and up) did take some pay cuts at AA, so not sure where the line is drawn in regards to management but I believe those pay cuts were made before the CARES act regulations took effect.

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