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LAX772LR
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:20 pm

lalib wrote:
EK should consider taking equity stakes in struggling airlines or state owned airlines such as MH, TG, PK, PL, Biman, UL, SAA. If these airlines are on the verge of collapse EK can deploy their a/c retire the existing planes of the struggling airlines and utilse EKs infrastructure to run them.

Hmm, guessing you've never heard of Swissair, if you think that's a good idea.....




NWADTWE16 wrote:
Burning even 1/100th of what we have discovered will seal our fate.

Great, now substantiate that specific number. This should be interesting.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
sibibom
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:13 am

Emirates will be a very different airline if it survives this crisis. They have only of 2 biggest commercial planes in service right now....Dubai doesn't have capability to bail the airline unlike other countries.

A380 is dead as a dodo. B777Ws with social distancing normals will also bleed money (no amount of cargo will save it with 40-50% load factor permitted). Air cargo may be lucrative now mainly cos time is of the essence right now to get medical supplies at the moment. In a few months shipping will be far more cheaper and time will not a concern in most cases, which will further depress the air cargo rates, not to mention empty planes means air cargo will have excessive capacity.

ps : If anyone has any leads on cryogenic pods that will keep me alive but asleep for next year or two, kindly DM! Depressing to see how the world's economy is falling apart!
 
KFLLCFII
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:35 am

The A380 may never fly another revenue passenger for Emirates.
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:20 am

The discussion is a bit of too much around being a fan (or not) of certain types of aircraft.

I think there there are some things that are very clear at this point, but much is also unclear and we'll have to wait to see what happens.

It is clear that all airlines will be attempting to cancel, delay or transfer their future purchases. With significantly less demand and money, there is no reason at all to get new planes. You will either not fly at all (e.g., now) or need to re-use and cannibalize your current fleet (e.g., the Emirates parts re-use plan). Or, you can buy more suitable used aircraft at cents on the dollar from the bankrupt airlines.

The same with leases. The lease runs out, it will be lease company's problem :-)

Many airlines will simply cease to exist. Some will be supported by government aid.

When the airlines get back to running at all will take some time. There will be recovery, but we don't know at how steep curve or how long it will take. It is certain that the overall demand has taken a permanent hit, in the sense of finding a lower base level and perhaps also a lower growth. Because companies have discovered virtual meetings, people scarred with the fears of the pandemic will reduce their flying, and because of the big economic hits mean less money for large numbers of people.

This will most likely cause smaller aircraft to be used on the average, although of course, the numbers may not be equally distributed. Efficiently packed A321s may still be popular and fly just less routes and less frequency, for instance. So it doesn't necessarily follow that there's more flights with A320s and A319s. Also, the surviving airlines may see some of the market shift to them from the bankrupt ones.

At this point, it is almost pointless to think about specific aircraft models and manufacturers, or airlines. Lets see who survives first, and when the first signs of recovery appear.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:47 am

[twoid][/twoid]
L0VE2FLY wrote:
Why are you ignoring Airbus?! EK has 50 A359s & 30 789s on order, on some routes the A359 would make a better 77W replacement than a 789. I haven't flown EK in years but if I did in the future I'd much rather be on an A350 than a 787, the latter's dimmable windows make it an awful choice for the true avgeek, if you're okay with the crew dimming your window against your will while you're enjoying the view, I'm NOT!


Well I’m sure Emirates will fly an aircraft to your nearest airport just based on your personal preferences and not market conditions because that’s what all successful businesses do, catering to the single internet warriors.
Thanks and best Regards
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MileHFL400
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:47 am

KFLLCFII wrote:
The A380 may never fly another revenue passenger for Emirates.


Highly doubt that.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
Noshow
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:39 am

The whole EK hub concept is based on big passenger numbers connecting at Dubai. So you need big aircraft like A380 and 777-300ER in any case to generate the visitor's volume needed. This is the DNA of Dubai as a Middle East trade and tourist place. Smaller aircraft would make this impossible.
 
Toinou
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:50 am

Emirates model worked before A380, even though this aircraft allowed this model to go a step further. QR made it work with largely smaller planes, with another difference being that they focus entirely on connection, barely trying to develop tourism.

Is they EK model put at danger by current situation? Absolutely! Will it be able to bounce in a form or another? As I already explained, I guess there are too many variables to know. But I'm sure this model can work, with some adjustments, with smaller number of passengers.
 
A330Inter
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:52 am

Toinou wrote:
Emirates model worked before A380, even though this aircraft allowed this model to go a step further. QR made it work with largely smaller planes, with another difference being that they focus entirely on connection, barely trying to develop tourism.


While I love to see so many aircraft branded EK, QR etc flying all around the skies and appreciate the value they brought to millions of travelers with cheap fares across the globe, not sure the "model works" in a sustainable manner:
- QR is not able to publish any profit,
- EK is part a wider economical project that made Dubai what it is today, an important trade, financial and tourism center which generates enough OD traffic to sustain an airline, but it remains exposed to high risks in an unstable region and works on very thin margins
 
RJMAZ
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:23 am

I actually think they will cancel the A350 and 777X orders or defer them for a very long time. The current fleet being flown at half the rate will now last twice as long. The retirement dates will be pushed out significantly.

Selling the 777W or A380's will be difficult as there are no buyers. I know Emirates likes new aircraft but I think this will change and they will last more than 15 years instead of the normal 10 years. I think they will put half of their fleet in long term storage. Fly the other half at a high rate. Then bring the stored aircraft back into service slowly.

The 777X order could in theory be deferred for as long as possible.
 
Scotron12
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:57 am

A330Inter wrote:
Toinou wrote:
Emirates model worked before A380, even though this aircraft allowed this model to go a step further. QR made it work with largely smaller planes, with another difference being that they focus entirely on connection, barely trying to develop tourism.


While I love to see so many aircraft branded EK, QR etc flying all around the skies and appreciate the value they brought to millions of travelers with cheap fares across the globe, not sure the "model works" in a sustainable manner:
- QR is not able to publish any profit,
- EK is part a wider economical project that made Dubai what it is today, an important trade, financial and tourism center which generates enough OD traffic to sustain an airline, but it remains exposed to high risks in an unstable region and works on very thin margins


Thin margins maybe, but it does it's job of putting DXB on the map.

Their operation model will change, but EK were changing already, pre-covid, witnessed with their big change to their fleet last November. Will they now change again with more 787s & 350s at the expense of the 779??

It's a big possibility
 
lalib
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:34 pm

EK has FZ.

Defer/cancel existing orders if possible.

When restrictions on travel ease. EK could park half of their a/c and ramp up FZ to handle EKs regional destinations. Perfectly doable for subcontinent, middle east and africa. EK own metal to operate on long haul routes.

During the course of time say 2 years a few leased a/c will go back to the leasing company. Demand would pick up eventually after 2 years.

I just checked FZ has a fleet of 54 a/c and 234 a/c on order of the MAX 8,9 and 10.
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:58 pm

Noshow wrote:

The whole EK hub concept is based on big passenger numbers connecting at Dubai. So you need big aircraft like A380 and 777-300ER in any case to generate the visitor's volume needed. This is the DNA of Dubai as a Middle East trade and tourist place. Smaller aircraft would make this impossible.


The whole EK model is SO pre-pandemic. Going forward in the near/mid-term, the smaller plane you fly, the less money you lose. Right now in the US, bet your sweet bippy the US3 would be operating 90% RJ's right about now. But those scope clauses and such...
Next up: STL DEN PSP DEN STL
 
Gbass21
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:47 pm

A330Inter wrote:
Toinou wrote:
Emirates model worked before A380, even though this aircraft allowed this model to go a step further. QR made it work with largely smaller planes, with another difference being that they focus entirely on connection, barely trying to develop tourism.


While I love to see so many aircraft branded EK, QR etc flying all around the skies and appreciate the value they brought to millions of travelers with cheap fares across the globe, not sure the "model works" in a sustainable manner:
- QR is not able to publish any profit,
- EK is part a wider economical project that made Dubai what it is today, an important trade, financial and tourism center which generates enough OD traffic to sustain an airline, but it remains exposed to high risks in an unstable region and works on very thin margins



Exactly, and not only that. With current oil prices UAE government can´t help too much EK on its financials. An airlines which current smaller capacity aircraft is an 77W (and has well over 100 frames of the type) is not easy to sustain. That´s what I think that the 789 could be literally pure gold for them. But also they need to analized what to do with their 777X and their a350 order as well.

If I were any airline right now, I would definitely cancel all major order on the books and reduce it at its minimum the only aircraft order that I can really need in 5 years time taking in consideration that oil prices would remain low so fuel efficeny may not play a major role in this decision.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:36 pm

Emirates moved a lot (most, all?) of their orders to lease, lease backs. Do we know they can simply not renew the lease, and forget about the plane, or could they have to buy it back at the end of the lease?
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
L0VE2FLY
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:59 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
L0VE2FLY wrote:
Why are you ignoring Airbus?! EK has 50 A359s & 30 789s on order...


Do you think spending $20 Billion on new aircraft by a firm that has no or severely diminished revenues is the obvious fix?

If any big carrier is in a pickle due to lack of fleet flexibility (high trip costs), it's Emirates.


No, I don't! I was simply asking the OP why he completely ignored the A350 as a 77W replacement when EK has ordered more A350s than 787s, of course nobody knows when those birds will be delivered.


MileHFL400 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
L0VE2FLY wrote:
Why are you ignoring Airbus?! EK has 50 A359s & 30 789s on order, on some routes the A359 would make a better 77W replacement than a 789. I haven't flown EK in years but if I did in the future I'd much rather be on an A350 than a 787, the latter's dimmable windows make it an awful choice for the true avgeek, if you're okay with the crew dimming your window against your will while you're enjoying the view, I'm NOT!


Well I’m sure Emirates will fly an aircraft to your nearest airport just based on your personal preferences and not market conditions because that’s what all successful businesses do, catering to the single internet warriors.


What are you talking about?! Anyway, my home airport (SAN) is unlikely to see ME3 service due to runway length and terrain, but if it did it'll probably be a 787! :banghead:
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:58 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Emirates moved a lot (most, all?) of their orders to lease, lease backs. Do we know they can simply not renew the lease, and forget about the plane, or could they have to buy it back at the end of the lease?

Emirates does opperating leases (return aircraft at end, with an escrow account for the overhaul, often performed by EK) and finance leases (lease to own). Without a recent snapshot, I couldn't tell you what fraction is which type of lease.


Lightsaber
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JayinKitsap
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:46 am

lightsaber wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Emirates moved a lot (most, all?) of their orders to lease, lease backs. Do we know they can simply not renew the lease, and forget about the plane, or could they have to buy it back at the end of the lease?

Emirates does opperating leases (return aircraft at end, with an escrow account for the overhaul, often performed by EK) and finance leases (lease to own). Without a recent snapshot, I couldn't tell you what fraction is which type of lease.

Lightsaber


I remember discussions on A.net around 2007 indicating that EK had been doing 10 to 12 year leases, with the birds leaving after that. Now a decade+ later, EK is probably nearing the end of its lease period on a lot of A380's and 777's. The recent discussion about the 77W P2F that GECAS is involved with indicated a number of EK frames are in the first 20 that they plan to convert.

The banks will need to do a quite sweet deal to even get EK to extend leases 2 or 3 years on the A380 frames, the 77W's should retain more value coming off lease but still a tricky situation getting others to sign up. Deferring the end of lease overhaul a few years on a cheap lease rate may allow the airlines to conserve cash, nobody wants dozens of stored planes that cost money to maintain and might not fly again if they sit several years.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:18 am

RJMAZ wrote:
I actually think they will cancel the A350 and 777X orders or defer them for a very long time. The current fleet being flown at half the rate will now last twice as long. The retirement dates will be pushed out significantly.

Selling the 777W or A380's will be difficult as there are no buyers. I know Emirates likes new aircraft but I think this will change and they will last more than 15 years instead of the normal 10 years. I think they will put half of their fleet in long term storage. Fly the other half at a high rate. Then bring the stored aircraft back into service slowly.

The 777X order could in theory be deferred for as long as possible.


Many 77X could be put back, but no cancellations due to fact a few already the built.

A350s more like to be the cancel. They will keep smaller 789 due to last 77X cancel deal, but no need for a350. It will look like the first cancel.
 
mig17
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:26 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
I actually think they will cancel the A350 and 777X orders or defer them for a very long time. The current fleet being flown at half the rate will now last twice as long. The retirement dates will be pushed out significantly.

Selling the 777W or A380's will be difficult as there are no buyers. I know Emirates likes new aircraft but I think this will change and they will last more than 15 years instead of the normal 10 years. I think they will put half of their fleet in long term storage. Fly the other half at a high rate. Then bring the stored aircraft back into service slowly.

The 777X order could in theory be deferred for as long as possible.


Many 77X could be put back, but no cancellations due to fact a few already the built.

A350s more like to be the cancel. They will keep smaller 789 due to last 77X cancel deal, but no need for a350. It will look like the first cancel.

Both A350 and 787 are swaps from frim A380 and 777-X order. So all 3 orders are "firmed alike". EK will want to defer all 3 as much as possible. "Easy" with A350 and 787, much less with 777-X since EK is it's major customer … So in terms of cancellations, I suspect the first EK victim will be the 777-X (last A380 case is also problematic), they have still 115 on order and already wanted pre-covid to reduce that number. Now, at least half of them will be lost …

That is if Emirates even get through this of course.
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olle
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:09 am

Both A380 and 777W is probably good business with low oil prices if they can be deasent filled.

To take new airplanes instead of giving bacvk A380 or 777w when the contracts expires is stupidity.

I do not see Emirates to take any new airplanes they are not forced to take for the close future like the last A380 and a few 777X. The rest will be delivered after 2023 again or if the oil price getting above USD 50.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:41 am

mig17 wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
I actually think they will cancel the A350 and 777X orders or defer them for a very long time. The current fleet being flown at half the rate will now last twice as long. The retirement dates will be pushed out significantly.

Selling the 777W or A380's will be difficult as there are no buyers. I know Emirates likes new aircraft but I think this will change and they will last more than 15 years instead of the normal 10 years. I think they will put half of their fleet in long term storage. Fly the other half at a high rate. Then bring the stored aircraft back into service slowly.

The 777X order could in theory be deferred for as long as possible.


Many 77X could be put back, but no cancellations due to fact a few already the built.

A350s more like to be the cancel. They will keep smaller 789 due to last 77X cancel deal, but no need for a350. It will look like the first cancel.

Both A350 and 787 are swaps from frim A380 and 777-X order. So all 3 orders are "firmed alike". EK will want to defer all 3 as much as possible. "Easy" with A350 and 787, much less with 777-X since EK is it's major customer … So in terms of cancellations, I suspect the first EK victim will be the 777-X (last A380 case is also problematic), they have still 115 on order and already wanted pre-covid to reduce that number. Now, at least half of them will be lost …

That is if Emirates even get through this of course.


With A380 production ended, more chance EK can simply cancelled the swopped A350s with ease.

Not sure the boeing deal will let walk away with cancels unless huge pens involved.

787-9 bit smaller and better flexible, so may be a better fit for ek fleet in the futures? Who knows.

Can't see the 77x canceled. Frames made already. Balance could be deferred though. EK will survive.
 
Toinou
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:43 am

Just a wild idea:
Could they (the management or Dubai government) let EK go bankrupt while founding a "new EK" out of I'm not sure what (maybe Fly Dubai, in a Swissair-Crossair-Swiss kind of move) so that they can cancel all the contracts they want and just take "back" what they need?
Obviously Airbus and Boeing would be very unhappy and the negotiation for next order may be a bit uncomfortable but for the moment, EK have plenty of planes to use (even though there are not the fittest for present job), and at that moment builders may well be in a difficult situation too, so maybe not that unhappy for an order.
It would obviously be a creative/abusive use of bankruptcy (and I have no idea how this is working in UAE) but as it would be handled locally, I guess Dubai authorities could find how to handle that so that it may look legal.
 
lalib
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:18 pm

Toinou wrote:
Just a wild idea:
Could they (the management or Dubai government) let EK go bankrupt while founding a "new EK" out of I'm not sure what (maybe Fly Dubai, in a Swissair-Crossair-Swiss kind of move) so that they can cancel all the contracts they want and just take "back" what they need?
Obviously Airbus and Boeing would be very unhappy and the negotiation for next order may be a bit uncomfortable but for the moment, EK have plenty of planes to use (even though there are not the fittest for present job), and at that moment builders may well be in a difficult situation too, so maybe not that unhappy for an order.
It would obviously be a creative/abusive use of bankruptcy (and I have no idea how this is working in UAE) but as it would be handled locally, I guess Dubai authorities could find how to handle that so that it may look legal.


That would be a huge embarrassment for the UAE. EK is their flagship and they have a few other global businesses involved in Property, Shipping, Oil and Gas that risk a tarnished reputation. Plus EK brand is worth 6 Billion last time I heard.

It worked for the Swiss wrt Swissair but letting EK go belly up and restructure is the last thing they will do imo.

To get a better perspective where can we obtain info on the a/c leases that are due to expire?
 
CRJ900
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:29 pm

If social distancing rules remains for some time, will the 615-seat A380s be EK's best performer as they can pack in 400 people on the busiest routes and still allow decent open space around pax?
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:36 pm

CRJ900 wrote:
If social distancing rules remains for some time, will the 615-seat A380s be EK's best performer as they can pack in 400 people on the busiest routes and still allow decent open space around pax?

As long as the virus situation is such that physical distancing is required, I think it is very unlikely that there will be any international routes anywhere drawing 400 people on a flight.

V/F
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smartplane
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:15 pm

Toinou wrote:
Just a wild idea:
Could they (the management or Dubai government) let EK go bankrupt while founding a "new EK" out of I'm not sure what (maybe Fly Dubai, in a Swissair-Crossair-Swiss kind of move) so that they can cancel all the contracts they want and just take "back" what they need?
Obviously Airbus and Boeing would be very unhappy and the negotiation for next order may be a bit uncomfortable but for the moment, EK have plenty of planes to use (even though there are not the fittest for present job), and at that moment builders may well be in a difficult situation too, so maybe not that unhappy for an order.
It would obviously be a creative/abusive use of bankruptcy (and I have no idea how this is working in UAE) but as it would be handled locally, I guess Dubai authorities could find how to handle that so that it may look legal.

Many of the funding participants involved in EK leases are citizens, especially of the A380, so extremely unlikely.

At end of lease (EOL), EK can opt to switch to power by the hour, effectively offering the lessor some dollars (maybe) and free storage, at the same deferring EOL payments. Or lessor can insist on return of the aircraft, enforcing EOL conditions, which will result in dollars sunk into the aircraft with no collateral benefit to lessor or lessee.

In such situations, the lessor will want to receive an EOL payment, in lieu of the work. Won't work for EK (or LH), as lessee's discretion, reflecting they have their own engineering capability to undertake EOL work.

So the usual outcome would be the lessor takes a discounted cash payment, or forgives most / all of the EOL and signs a new lease on a new aircraft. Can't happen now, as standing in the shadows (or right out in the open), are the lessor's bankers. And which airlines want new aircraft at pre-COVID pricing? Everyone wants a re-price even on already ordered aircraft.

EK have more latitude on GE powered A380's, as these have power by the hour linked to the initial lease term on 3 yearly rollover, whereas RR is lease term plus 2 years fixed, so less costly for the lessor and lessee to exit the GE deal.

Only positive is with aircraft grounded, leased aircraft may drop into low use (cycles / hours), reducing lease costs. These are normally accumulated and deducted from the EOL payment, though many lessor's have been requested to deduct real time from monthly lease charges.
 
DCA350
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:25 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
mig17 wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

Many 77X could be put back, but no cancellations due to fact a few already the built.

A350s more like to be the cancel. They will keep smaller 789 due to last 77X cancel deal, but no need for a350. It will look like the first cancel.

Both A350 and 787 are swaps from frim A380 and 777-X order. So all 3 orders are "firmed alike". EK will want to defer all 3 as much as possible. "Easy" with A350 and 787, much less with 777-X since EK is it's major customer … So in terms of cancellations, I suspect the first EK victim will be the 777-X (last A380 case is also problematic), they have still 115 on order and already wanted pre-covid to reduce that number. Now, at least half of them will be lost …

That is if Emirates even get through this of course.


With A380 production ended, more chance EK can simply cancelled the swopped A350s with ease.

Not sure the boeing deal will let walk away with cancels unless huge pens involved.

787-9 bit smaller and better flexible, so may be a better fit for ek fleet in the futures? Who knows.

Can't see the 77x canceled. Frames made already. Balance could be deferred though. EK will survive.


This makes zero sense, the A350s are the result of cancelling the A380s. There would be massive penalties to cancel. I don't think the 787s will be cancelled, but considering EK still plans on taking 777Xs, the 787s would be a much easier cancel since the deposits could be rolled into the 777s. Unless EK plans on ordering 330Neos there is no other Airbus product to transfer said deposits.
 
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Revelation
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:24 pm

It looks like SQ is sending four A380s to the desert ( ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/sia ... 84.article ).

I guess EK is lucky to have its own desert right in its back yard!
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LAX772LR
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Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:49 pm

Revelation wrote:
I guess EK is lucky to have its own desert right in its back yard!

:shakehead: :shakehead: :shakehead:

The "sand" there is more akin to powdery dust, than to the grainy particulates that you're accustomed to seeing on a beach... it gets into everything!
Definitely not the kind of place you'd want to do long-term indefinite storage, if you could avoid it.

Under these unfortunate circumstances, there's likely nowhere else for EK to put the massive numbers. Hence so many aircraft being stored at DXB/DWC. :(
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Arion640
Posts: 3076
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:32 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I guess EK is lucky to have its own desert right in its back yard!

:shakehead: :shakehead: :shakehead:

The "sand" there is more akin to powdery dust, than to the grainy particulates that you're accustomed to seeing on a beach... it gets into everything!
Definitely not the kind of place you'd want to do long-term indefinite storage, if you could avoid it.

Under these unfortunate circumstances, there's likely nowhere else for EK to put the massive numbers. Hence so many aircraft being stored at DXB/DWC. :(


Qantas had major issues with the Trent and sand when flying out of DXB.
 
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Devilfish
Posts: 7118
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:00 pm

Here's an idea..... :idea: .....

Why not gift the many princes one A380 each to decorate the front yards of their "tents" at their favorite spots in the desert? :duck: They could do the more "mundane" things in the aircraft while enjoying the liberating openness of the surroundings. But how to move the A380 there? Maybe the "desert whale" could swim through sand when a sandstorm threatens to bury it? :swirl:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Aither
Posts: 1300
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:28 pm

I would be Emirates I would monitor all the other carriers saying "we're going to be smaller", prepare a nice network recovery planning, demonstrate today I'm the safest airline to fly long haul, and then when the rebound starts put myself as more than ever in a position of the absolute global connector.
If the plan works, they will need all their A380s... in particular considering their airport is limited and destination countries after bailing out their airline industry will not be keen to give more slots to EK.
Never trust the obvious
 
Aither
Posts: 1300
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:41 pm

Toinou wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
People will want to fly once the global travel ban is lifted.

I'm not sure this is so simple.
Many people will obviously want (or have) to travel. Some because they need it to work, some because they have family abroad they will want to see, some because they like to travel and have had to refrain for some time.
But many people will not want to fly , either at the moment or more definitively. Some people may stay scarred of being confined with many people in a closed space (I'm not saying this is a place where contamination (with any disease) can happen more easily, just that some people will think it's the case). Some people may have less money to travel as the economy will probably shrink (to what level, I have no idea and no one really has). In business, companies or already realizing that some said for years : not all travel are so indispensable that they used to think ; in some cases, you have to be there in person (for example, if you have to realize a manual work that no one else can do), but in many other cases, a phone or video call is (almost) as efficient and allows you to space time and money. Some people will want to change some aspects of how they consume produces and services (and tourism is one of them), many reasons are involved, environment being one of them (I can't say about elsewhere in the world but in western Europe, it still seems to be an important question at the moment).
The latter aspects may affect travel demand more permanently I guess, as it may some people not want to fly anymore or at least want them to fly less.

For all this reasons, I would venture predicting what future demand for travel will be. So-called economists trying to predict what future will be are making at best educated guesses (and in the worst cases, it's pure ideology).


Westerners view

The developed countries are in Asia, the rich ones are in Middle East, the developing ones are in Africa.
Europe & US are declining regions. Could soon have the status of PDC (previously developed countries).
For one European not going anymore to Phuket you will get 2 more Asians going to Paris.
That's why Emirates and air travel will be resilient.
Never trust the obvious
 
User avatar
erikgrinsvall
Posts: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 01, 2008 9:43 pm

EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 8:41 am

It is with no doubt the everyone is feeling the substantial impacts of the COVID outbreak, thus what is to be felt. However, for some it is different, and the road might be longer towards financial stability than for others. 9/11 and the volcanic eruptions were single events, where as the COVID is open ended, on-going and un-contained, which leaves airlines no other choice than to consider reconstructing their operations.

EK - which is a transit giant, equips it's routes primarily with their fleet of (115)A388/ (132)77W/(10)L's (+-118.000 seats collectively), and as they do not operate any domestic routes, the are solely dependent on global behavior from other countries, especially from the high revenue markets like India, UK, U.S. and Australia. Once boarders eases their restrictions and air travel resumes towards a "daily basis', we will be looking at record low pay loads, which is predicted to last for a few months, some fear a year.

At this stage - around 40 of their 132 B77W's are operating as cargo flights, with a few outbound and inbound (only for GCC nationals) "pax-integrated" repatriation flights along with the cargo services. The remaining B77W and all A388's at majority are stored at DWC and some at DXB. Prelimenary dates of some daily scheduled flights will recommence in July, operated by B77W.

There are other carriers that are facing similar situations, however, EK are one of the few that have ignored the narrow body path for their operations, which has been a debatable topic through the year.

At this stage, the salaries at EK have variously been cut according to grades and unpaid leave have been issued to a minority. Initially, the government "officially" announced that they were to inject liquidity into the airline.

Share your thoughts

/E
 
VSMUT
Posts: 4568
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 9:05 am

Dubai has long since reached a stage where it will remain relevant as a regional trade center. It isn't going away. There will always be a need for air transport to and from Dubai. That said, I believe it will shrink, both the airline and the city.
For Emirates, I see a smaller future where connecting Dubai and the UAE to the world is going to make up a bigger part than connecting Europe and Asia.
They will still hold a massive advantage in the developing world. In markets such as Africa to Asia and ME to anywhere they hold stronger cards than pretty much any other airline.
 
Toinou
Posts: 285
Joined: Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:21 am

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 9:18 am

Is India really considered a "high revenue market"?
 
PANAMsterdam
Posts: 268
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:45 am

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 9:32 am

I see EK as the Pan Am of my time. They are the airline everybody looks up to and compares itself to. The 747 was Pan Am's icon, as is the A380 for Emirates. But just as Pan Am, EK seems to have made the same mistake about their fleet.

Pan Am had a massive problem on its hands in the early 70's when the oil crisis begun: gigantic aircraft with not enough passengers to carry, making their operations severely unprofitable. They had too many 747's on their hands, and too many on order. Pan Am had miscalculated the industry, they thought the industry could/would only grow and never shrink. But the oil crisis swept them off their feet, and many agree that the $530 million order for 25 747's aimed to make Pan Am bigger, was ironically the first nail in their coffin.

Now EK has consolidated its fleet structure around two massive aircraft: The 777 and A380. Which makes sort of sense in good times (given their geographical location), but no sense in lesser times let alone in bad times. EK has plenty of regional destinations that would be served well with a 737/A320 (Iraq / Iran / Saudi Arabia and so on). But now that the the demand has fallen 95%, EK has suddenly the same problem as Pan Am had: gigantic aircraft to fill with not enough passengers. And this low passenger number will likely not recover in the foreseeable future.

Other airlines like QR or KL can (re)start/continue their operations with their narrow body fleet & smaller wide bodies like the A350 or 787 while parking or converting their 777's (for freight). EK can't do that. And the smallest wide body they had, the A330, left the fleet a few years ago. Now EK has realized that, by ordering A350's and 787's but far too late to help them in this corona crisis.

Additional problem for EK is that they are located in a country that lives on and breathes oil. But the unthinkable has happend: the world is suddenly not hungry for oil anymore. So that source of income for Dubai's rulers has (almost literally) dried up and makes it harder to find cash to invest in EK. They will find a way, since the growth of EK and Dubai goes hand in hand, and because Dubai isn't suddenly a poor country. But together they grew, but it seems like together they are falling too.

Always remember: anything is possible even when people are telling you it can't be! The Titanic was unsinkable, the oil price could never be negative, American Airlines would never lose money again.

History proved them all wrong.

Given recent negative experiences here on A.net I would like to state that this is just my opinion. Feel free to agree or disagree with me but please use arguments not attacks or sarcastic commentary. Thank you :pray:
Every country has an airline. The world has Pan Am.
 
Gremlinzzzz
Posts: 91
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:28 am

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 9:36 am

VSMUT wrote:
Dubai has long since reached a stage where it will remain relevant as a regional trade center. It isn't going away. There will always be a need for air transport to and from Dubai. That said, I believe it will shrink, both the airline and the city.
For Emirates, I see a smaller future where connecting Dubai and the UAE to the world is going to make up a bigger part than connecting Europe and Asia.
They will still hold a massive advantage in the developing world. In markets such as Africa to Asia and ME to anywhere they hold stronger cards than pretty much any other airline.

Their future is probably smaller more efficient aircraft which is why they were maybe interested in A330's and A350's. Emirates and other hub carriers will always have a presence in Europe, and a significant one because of how aviation is structured. Hubs are still king because even the biggest European carriers cannot justify flying point to point and long haul from some of the smaller airports.

So long as there is a premium to fly non stop, and the middle east/Asian carriers offer cheaper one stop options, there will be a significant market that they can tap onto going forward. Not to mention that their service is top quality.
 
IWMBH
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:01 pm

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 9:47 am

PANAMsterdam wrote:
I see EK as the Pan Am of my time. They are the airline everybody looks up to and compares itself to. The 747 was Pan Am's icon, as is the A380 for Emirates. But just as Pan Am, EK seems to have made the same mistake about their fleet.

Pan Am had a massive problem on its hands in the early 70's when the oil crisis begun: gigantic aircraft with not enough passengers to carry, making their operations severely unprofitable. They had too many 747's on their hands, and too many on order. Pan Am had miscalculated the industry, they thought the industry could/would only grow and never shrink. But the oil crisis swept them off their feet, and many agree that the $530 million order for 25 747's aimed to make Pan Am bigger, was ironically the first nail in their coffin.

Now EK has consolidated its fleet structure around two massive aircraft: The 777 and A380. Which makes sort of sense in good times (given their geographical location), but no sense in lesser times let alone in bad times. EK has plenty of regional destinations that would be served well with a 737/A320 (Iraq / Iran / Saudi Arabia and so on). But now that the the demand has fallen 95%, EK has suddenly the same problem as Pan Am had: gigantic aircraft to fill with not enough passengers. And this low passenger number will likely not recover in the foreseeable future.

Other airlines like QR or KL can (re)start/continue their operations with their narrow body fleet & smaller wide bodies like the A350 or 787 while parking or converting their 777's (for freight). EK can't do that. And the smallest wide body they had, the A330, left the fleet a few years ago. Now EK has realized that, by ordering A350's and 787's but far too late to help them in this corona crisis.

Additional problem for EK is that they are located in a country that lives on and breathes oil. But the unthinkable has happend: the world is suddenly not hungry for oil anymore. So that source of income for Dubai's rulers has (almost literally) dried up and makes it harder to find cash to invest in EK. They will find a way, since the growth of EK and Dubai goes hand in hand, and because Dubai isn't suddenly a poor country. But together they grew, but it seems like together they are falling too.

Always remember: anything is possible even when people are telling you it can't be! The Titanic was unsinkable, the oil price could never be negative, American Airlines would never lose money again.

History proved them all wrong.

Given recent negative experiences here on A.net I would like to state that this is just my opinion. Feel free to agree or disagree with me but please use arguments not attacks or sarcastic commentary. Thank you :pray:


The main difference between EK and Pan Am is that Pan Am wasn't the only airlines in the US, far from it in fact. So their bankruptcy had a minimal effect on the US economy and other airlines stood in line to take their place. The UAE doesn't have that, EK is vital in their growth plans. If they have the capability to save EK I'm sure they would.

That said, with the oil price it is hard for Dubai to support their businesses. And, I know that Dubai itself doesn't produce oil but the countries in de region al depend on it and it will have an effect on their economy. I think the only way for EK to survive is to get some loans off grants from the government.

If they don't then they will face bankruptcy. But, I don't know how the UAE's legal system works. If they can do a ''chapter 11'' they can shed most of their leases, orders and expensive staff and emerge as a much smaller airline.
 
KFLLCFII
Posts: 3592
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:08 am

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 9:51 am

Have they found a feasible use for recycling GLARE yet? There's gonna be alot of feedstock coming soon.
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
VSMUT
Posts: 4568
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 10:06 am

PANAMsterdam wrote:
I see EK as the Pan Am of my time. They are the airline everybody looks up to and compares itself to. The 747 was Pan Am's icon, as is the A380 for Emirates. But just as Pan Am, EK seems to have made the same mistake about their fleet.


Emirates isn't Pan Am. Pan Am was a big, private owned airline in a competitive market with multiple competitors. Emirates is a state owned flag carrier and almost has a monopoly in the regions biggest trade hub. The only real competitors are Qatar Airways and Etihad. Qatar is blockaded and Etihad is in a dire situation.


Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Their future is probably smaller more efficient aircraft which is why they were maybe interested in A330's and A350's. Emirates and other hub carriers will always have a presence in Europe, and a significant one because of how aviation is structured. Hubs are still king because even the biggest European carriers cannot justify flying point to point and long haul from some of the smaller airports.

So long as there is a premium to fly non stop, and the middle east/Asian carriers offer cheaper one stop options, there will be a significant market that they can tap onto going forward. Not to mention that their service is top quality.


I think they will have to go even smaller. The 787/A330neo/A350 interest was from before the crisis. If measures remain permanent and cost of travel prohibitive, along with a lack of willingness to travel, they may even have to look into absorbing FlyDubai's 737MAX fleet. 787-9s and A350s are still going to remain relevant to big cities, but they have a massive network to Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan and India where many destinations might only be viable on a 737.
 
B777LRF
Posts: 2711
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 4:23 am

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 10:16 am

Just a point of order: Dubai has no oil or gas worth mentioning.

You need to think of Dubai as a corporation, where the biggest sources of income stems from their ability to attract foreign companies who hires expat workers in their hundreds of thousands, and tourism.

The first part is exceedingly important, and is the reason why Ek have not laid off staff. Should they do so, the expats would forfeit their residency permit and would leave in huge droves, torpedoing large parts of the service economy and wrecking havoc with real estate business. Ipso facto, if companies in Dubai starts laying off staff in large numbers, the Dubai economy would completely implode.

Dubai can survive on a reduced number of tourists (having been in there numerous times on business, the attraction as a tourist destination utterly escapes me, but I digress), but it cannot survive without millions of expats. That EK makes most of its money being a transit carrier, where only a small portion of their pax actually visit Dubai, only speaks to the size the airline has managed to grow into; it can survive on a much smaller scale, catering mainly to the expat and tourist business.

For that reason alone EK will have to survive, albeit not necessarily in its present form.
Signature. You just read one.
 
ewt340
Posts: 1273
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 10:45 am

Well, the answer might be cargo. With cargo compatible configurations currently available, this might be a good strategy, and again, Dubai location is just in the middle between Asia and Africa/Europe. Many of the flights are short enough for them to maximize the cargo payload using long-range aircraft like B777-300ER.
 
AsoRock
Posts: 173
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 4:00 pm

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 10:48 am

Emirates is not going away but will vastly come out of the tunnel a wholy different looking airline. Perhaps with half or less of its original A380 fleet, the 77W and new A350/787.

It will also require massive assistance and I suspect either Abu Dhabi or the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) will come to the rescue with the latter searching for bargain deals to take advantage of the situation. Emirates is the crown jewel of Dubai’s whole being and existence, both economically and strategically. Dubai’s government will not allow them to fold under any circumstance especially considering the airline has been one of the best run airlines in the world delivering profits , no matter how you look at it.

With the business model having been turned upside down they will just have to go back to the drawing board and innovate like they’ve always done. There will be more focus on premium economy travel and less on high end travel where lounges and lavish premium cabin service onboard won’t be the reality for a while.

Cheers
 
Gremlinzzzz
Posts: 91
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:28 am

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 11:19 am

PANAMsterdam wrote:
I see EK as the Pan Am of my time. They are the airline everybody looks up to and compares itself to. The 747 was Pan Am's icon, as is the A380 for Emirates. But just as Pan Am, EK seems to have made the same mistake about their fleet.

Pan Am had a massive problem on its hands in the early 70's when the oil crisis begun: gigantic aircraft with not enough passengers to carry, making their operations severely unprofitable. They had too many 747's on their hands, and too many on order. Pan Am had miscalculated the industry, they thought the industry could/would only grow and never shrink. But the oil crisis swept them off their feet, and many agree that the $530 million order for 25 747's aimed to make Pan Am bigger, was ironically the first nail in their coffin.

Now EK has consolidated its fleet structure around two massive aircraft: The 777 and A380. Which makes sort of sense in good times (given their geographical location), but no sense in lesser times let alone in bad times. EK has plenty of regional destinations that would be served well with a 737/A320 (Iraq / Iran / Saudi Arabia and so on). But now that the the demand has fallen 95%, EK has suddenly the same problem as Pan Am had: gigantic aircraft to fill with not enough passengers. And this low passenger number will likely not recover in the foreseeable future.

Other airlines like QR or KL can (re)start/continue their operations with their narrow body fleet & smaller wide bodies like the A350 or 787 while parking or converting their 777's (for freight). EK can't do that. And the smallest wide body they had, the A330, left the fleet a few years ago. Now EK has realized that, by ordering A350's and 787's but far too late to help them in this corona crisis.

Additional problem for EK is that they are located in a country that lives on and breathes oil. But the unthinkable has happend: the world is suddenly not hungry for oil anymore. So that source of income for Dubai's rulers has (almost literally) dried up and makes it harder to find cash to invest in EK. They will find a way, since the growth of EK and Dubai goes hand in hand, and because Dubai isn't suddenly a poor country. But together they grew, but it seems like together they are falling too.

Always remember: anything is possible even when people are telling you it can't be! The Titanic was unsinkable, the oil price could never be negative, American Airlines would never lose money again.

History proved them all wrong.

Given recent negative experiences here on A.net I would like to state that this is just my opinion. Feel free to agree or disagree with me but please use arguments not attacks or sarcastic commentary. Thank you :pray:


1. Oil is not negative. What happened is that producers usually sell to speculators in the oil futures markets. The said speculators then usually look to sell to someone else; in this way, oil producers get paid regardless of where the oil price goes. It is in the futures market that problems exist, and the futures market only in the USA. This is because in prior times, you had to have storage for fuel you bought, but deregulation of this industry meant that you could speculate without having storage.

So long as there was demand, this was never an issue because oil would always find a home. When the demand tanked because of Covid 19, the expiry of these futures contracts meant that oil needed to be delivered at the contracted date. These speculators, not having a place to store the oil needed to pay someone to take it off them. It is this that people think is oil being negative when in reality it is not, and consumers have no way of taking advantage of this........because like speculators, where are you going to store oil?

2. Demand for oil an petroleum products will go up once economies worldwide start again. Travel will take time to come back online, but this is not an issue that is isolated to Emirates, it is an issue that is going to be faced by every airline that has significant wide body coverage along the network. Even narrow body fleets that traverse different countries will have issues when it comes to how staggered countries will open their airspace to international travel.

Every single hub carrier will run into these issues, and point to point carriers albeit running smaller jets may struggle to even see that type of demand that makes their ventures profitable.
 
Gremlinzzzz
Posts: 91
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:28 am

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 11:58 am

VSMUT wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:
I see EK as the Pan Am of my time. They are the airline everybody looks up to and compares itself to. The 747 was Pan Am's icon, as is the A380 for Emirates. But just as Pan Am, EK seems to have made the same mistake about their fleet.


Emirates isn't Pan Am. Pan Am was a big, private owned airline in a competitive market with multiple competitors. Emirates is a state owned flag carrier and almost has a monopoly in the regions biggest trade hub. The only real competitors are Qatar Airways and Etihad. Qatar is blockaded and Etihad is in a dire situation.


Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Their future is probably smaller more efficient aircraft which is why they were maybe interested in A330's and A350's. Emirates and other hub carriers will always have a presence in Europe, and a significant one because of how aviation is structured. Hubs are still king because even the biggest European carriers cannot justify flying point to point and long haul from some of the smaller airports.

So long as there is a premium to fly non stop, and the middle east/Asian carriers offer cheaper one stop options, there will be a significant market that they can tap onto going forward. Not to mention that their service is top quality.


I think they will have to go even smaller. The 787/A330neo/A350 interest was from before the crisis. If measures remain permanent and cost of travel prohibitive, along with a lack of willingness to travel, they may even have to look into absorbing FlyDubai's 737MAX fleet. 787-9s and A350s are still going to remain relevant to big cities, but they have a massive network to Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan and India where many destinations might only be viable on a 737.
I can tell you for a fact that in Africa they will have a viable business with the wide body fleet. They do not have much in way of competition and route network coverage. In this area, even Ethiopian does not compete when it comes to a one stop strategy or the multitude of bunks that Emirates operates.

Their competition in India isn't great either, or in Pakistan when it comes to routing to Europe, the America's or even Africa when you consider who the full service carriers are, and how their service is sometimes lacking.

They will keep the A380's for some time, there is no way for them to untangle themselves from it. Plus people forget what it does for them especially in slot constrained airports......they will keep them flying as they wait for demand to pick up. To do any different is to cede market share to competition.
 
tayaramecanici
Posts: 255
Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:03 am

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 12:00 pm

PANAMsterdam wrote:
I see EK as the Pan Am of my time. They are the airline everybody looks up to and compares itself to. The 747 was Pan Am's icon, as is the A380 for Emirates. But just as Pan Am, EK seems to have made the same mistake about their fleet. .

Always remember: anything is possible even when people are telling you it can't be! The Titanic was unsinkable, the oil price could never be negative, American Airlines would never lose money again.

History proved them all wrong.

Given recent negative experiences here on A.net I would like to state that this is just my opinion. Feel free to agree or disagree with me but please use arguments not attacks or sarcastic commentary. Thank you :pray:


Fully agree with everything you say, i left EK in Dec 1999. The fleets was less than 35 aircrafts then. This story of the largest airline in the world started in 1998, Noel Forgeard visited dubai and met Sheikh Mohammed, he was then only a crown prince, immediately the day after the meeting AIRBUS announced the plan for the A380 programme taking off the drawing board.
In 1999 or There about Jiang Jemin had visited Dubai. EK had 2 x dailies to HKG. The sheikhs of dubai had sold their souls to the communist red devils and created this huge monolith. The sheikh of Dubai was enamoured by the CCP.

Real estate registrations was allowed for expats in DXB from 2002, same as in CCP China. In 2002 immediately after the 9/11 EK put in its large order costing $20B, the GDP of Dubai was less than $60B then. In 2003 US invaded Iraq. In 2004 Haliburton moved their HQ to DXB, The rest as they say is "history with $100+/bl". Every small time sheikh was investing his money in the new BEIRUT (ala Paris of middle east) i,e Dubai.

The day i saw Jiang Jemin in Dubai, i had mentioned USA will destroy china. The USA has taken his time.............but done a lot good for the world in the mean time.There will be some collateral damage alongside.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
tayaramecanici
Posts: 255
Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:03 am

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 12:20 pm

B777LRF wrote:
Just a point of order: Dubai has no oil or gas worth mentioning.

You need to think of Dubai as a corporation, where the biggest sources of income stems from their ability to attract foreign companies who hires expat workers in their hundreds of thousands, and tourism.

The first part is exceedingly important, and is the reason why Ek have not laid off staff. Should they do so, the expats would forfeit their residency permit and would leave in huge droves, torpedoing large parts of the service economy and wrecking havoc with real estate business. Ipso facto, if companies in Dubai starts laying off staff in large numbers, the Dubai economy would completely implode.

Dubai can survive on a reduced number of tourists (having been in there numerous times on business, the attraction as a tourist destination utterly escapes me, but I digress), but it cannot survive without millions of expats. That EK makes most of its money being a transit carrier, where only a small portion of their pax actually visit Dubai, only speaks to the size the airline has managed to grow into; it can survive on a much smaller scale, catering mainly to the expat and tourist business.

For that reason alone EK will have to survive, albeit not necessarily in its present form.


There will be massisve changes in the middle east.
EK, infact the state of Dubai's creation was the doing of the UK Foreign Office. They, UKFO supported Dubai all the way since its foundation. Right now the state of UK is facing its own survival and there will be limited support from the UKFO.
The big brother AbuDhabi, might make a move on taking over all the the 7 emirates into its fold. Sheikh Mohammed of DXB has been wounded lately in the UK crown courts. I do agree with your analysis, AUH soveright fund might take over EK and the state of Dubai.
Don't be surprised if Qatar joins this new state alongwith UAE.
Saudi are wasted lot, Their future is dependent of Israel.
Iran, Iraq and Syria will have another Desert Spring revolution with the major religion reduced in these countries.
Aviation will take a break in this time.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
User avatar
b727fan
Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2004 8:54 am

Re: EK's possible future?

Fri May 01, 2020 1:15 pm

"jaws music" and then Abu Dhabi strikes!!
Financial power in the UAE is in Abu Dhabi and with the Expo 2020 revenues now projected even less than expected, coupled with the fact that Dubai is still in major debt (mostly to the Zayed family) take over as in merger of Etihad / Emirates is possible.
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Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos