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leghorn
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Thu May 21, 2020 9:03 pm

even if you were right do you think that having the greens in power instead of the SPD will make it easier for the taxpayer to get a return on their involuntary investment?
 
fraT
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Thu May 21, 2020 10:14 pm

leghorn wrote:
even if you were right do you think that having the greens in power instead of the SPD will make it easier for the taxpayer to get a return on their involuntary investment?


I actually see no big difference - in this point.
But that is just my personal opinion. Currently I am not that sad that the greens are not part of the government.......
 
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Executor
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Thu May 21, 2020 11:19 pm

fraT wrote:
leghorn wrote:
even if you were right do you think that having the greens in power instead of the SPD will make it easier for the taxpayer to get a return on their involuntary investment?


I actually see no big difference - in this point.
But that is just my personal opinion. Currently I am not that sad that the greens are not part of the government.......


Probably (though they will never admit it) the greens are also not that sad not to be part of the government. This way, they can criticize the bailout plan without having to take responsibility for the job losses either way.
 
Amsterdam
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 1:36 pm

News is coming in that the german government demands LH does not cancel any Airbus orders.

Well there you go. Things like this happens when government gets power in companies.
 
leghorn
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 1:45 pm

Well they can only buy so many A350s for the government fleet themselves.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 1:48 pm

Amsterdam wrote:
News is coming in that the german government demands LH does not cancel any Airbus orders.

Well there you go. Things like this happens when government gets power in companies.


Obvious decision, as the German government would be stake holders in Airbus and LH, so thats that. If this is good or bad is one decision but it is the obvious call for the government. Saves jobs in both companies that both employ German citizens.
 
leghorn
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 3:10 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... SFWN2D40JO
As mentioned earlier Airbus Order pre-conditons for Lufthansa aid.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 3:22 pm

So I guess this means the 77X order will be dumped? 787 order? No more Boeings at LH? Great day for Airbus.
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 3:24 pm

Did AF/KLM/IG/BA make similar demands to buy Airbus only? Can Boeing take this to the WTO if their orders are dropped?

In my opinion, Trump should retaliate: Airbus orders should be dropped for any of the US# receiving taxpayer funds.
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 3:31 pm

As the government becomes a shareholder, it can do as any shareholder desires and formulate demands for the management.
 
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Terrier79
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 3:36 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Did AF/KLM/IG/BA make similar demands to buy Airbus only? Can Boeing take this to the WTO if their orders are dropped?

In my opinion, Trump should retaliate: Airbus orders should be dropped for any of the US# receiving taxpayer funds.

This story - if true - makes no statement about Boeing orders to be dropped.
It just says that the German government wishes Lufthansa should take up all open Airbus orders.

Still likely that even without this being a condition for the bailout both manufacturers will be hit by cancelled or postponed orders. LH plans to have 100 aircraft less in the air than before the crisis...
 
LJ
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 3:40 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Did AF/KLM/IG/BA make similar demands to buy Airbus only? Can Boeing take this to the WTO if their orders are dropped?


This has been mentioned by some French politicians, but was not a condition. This is not a surprise as the French already owned part of AF/KL before this crisis and it's the group which purchases the aircraft. Moreover, the Dutch government probably likes Boeing more and has an almost equal share in AF/KL.

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
In my opinion, Trump should retaliate: Airbus orders should be dropped for any of the US# receiving taxpayer funds.


You mean Airbus orders not made at the Mobile plant? Anyway, they're not requiring LH to buy Airbus, just not to drop it (one can always defer the order).

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
So I guess this means the 77X order will be dumped? 787 order? No more Boeings at LH? Great day for Airbus.


I don't think Airbus will see it that way.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 3:42 pm

This will result in more A350 orders. Perhaps even some A330 NEO orders down the road.
Good moaning!
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 3:52 pm

If LH can't balance its fleet needs in the most efficient manner while have to buy from only one vendor, Boeing will obviously get the short end of the stick. While I guess more Germans will remain employed by Airbus, the German taxpayers will be paying more for planes.

I hope Trump retaliates: Boeing orders only as a condition of future bailout funds.
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
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Terrier79
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 4:10 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
If LH can't balance its fleet needs in the most efficient manner while have to buy from only one vendor, Boeing will obviously get the short end of the stick. While I guess more Germans will remain employed by Airbus, the German taxpayers will be paying more for planes.

I hope Trump retaliates: Boeing orders only as a condition of future bailout funds.

I’m not a fan of this extra condition at all. Airlines should be able to order the aircraft they find most suitable for them and conduct fleet planning according to their needs.

But when I hear talks about retaliation, let’s not forget the KC-45 story and also not the game that was played around Delta’s CS order...
 
blueflyer
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 4:45 pm

seahawk wrote:
As the government becomes a shareholder, it can do as any shareholder desires and formulate demands for the management.

You are both right and wrong at the same time. It isn't a shareholder making a demand of management, but a future investor conditioning its investment to a management promise to take (or not take) a certain future action to the benefit of another company in which it has a stake. That is business as usual... Many investors want the companies they invest in to buy from one another (exclusively) to the extent possible.

The major difference is in the enforcement mechanism. Whereas a private investor would have to balance the cost and judgment risk against the potential benefits of seeking relief from civil courts, governments have far more options to deal with perceived or real transgressions from their decrees, starting with nearly unlimited funds for legal action without significant concern over the outcome, all the way to, in some instances, relying on the criminal justice system to punish individuals. With a private investor, Lufthansa could potentially get away with vague promises or even a contract and take a chance and do the opposite a year or two later… but with the government as shareholder, the degree will be followed to the letter until it expires (if an expiration date is set) or until the government issues another decree to nullify the first.

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
I hope Trump retaliates: Boeing orders only as a condition of future bailout funds.

Wouldn't be so much a retaliation as an escalation since the German government did not explicitly state that Boeing orders should be canceled (though the net effect is probably the same). That said, Trump isn't known for its measured approach and I do think that if he were to intervene, escalation would be his approach. The thing is, I think the pandemic and Trump's total unpredictability (going from all bite no bark to totally reversing the world order and back on a whim) have changed European governments' attitude, especially Germany. If Trump escalates, the best outcome would be for the EU to sit and wait out the results of the election in November. I wouldn't be surprised if EU governments choose not to and slap their own ban on Boeing aircraft sales in the EU. Add to it that China has been threatening to cancel all Boeing orders (and for once, thanks to the pandemic it is a threat they can afford to act upon), and Boeing will need a massive bailout from the US government to survive.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 4:50 pm

The risks and benefits analysis is reasonable from the point of view of the government. Airbus is providing jobs for many persons in Germany, Boeing does much less. So if LH is forced to take Airbuses the money is serving the interest of the government, which wants to keep the Airbus employees employed. It is an risky trend for the industry though.
 
fcogafa
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 5:18 pm

The article says the talks are stalled on the issue so many seem to be jumping the gun again
 
Noshow
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 6:45 pm

It's close to become some telenovela hopefully not a drama finally. Today they wanted to greenlight the final deal now monday is set as the new date for it.
Let's see what happens? To now still opt for chapter 11 mode instead of the government rescue package would be some dangerous gamble for LH. It could cost the entire company in no time. Weekends would be a typical time senior leaders like Angela Merkel look at non moving deals like this with a final word.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 7:56 pm

seahawk wrote:
As the government becomes a shareholder, it can do as any shareholder desires and formulate demands for the management.


Not all governments are involved with management. Look at KLM.
Good moaning!
 
leghorn
Posts: 1297
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Fri May 22, 2020 7:59 pm

https://www.airliners.de/bundesregierun ... buch/55543
German text.

148 Airbus airframes in play.
 
leghorn
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sat May 23, 2020 11:18 am

Altmaier, the Finance Minister is on TV this morning swearing they'll be in and out of Lufthansa in a jiffy and wont' be there for the long run.
How they expect any business to be able to clear 9 to 10 Billion of equity\debt in the space of a few years is beyond me. This company has a market capitalization of 3.8 billion.
They must just expect that investors will forget the basics of investing and just throw money away.
Despite its stranglehold on the DACH region, Lufthansa hasn't been particularly profitable even in good times.
 
RvA
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sat May 23, 2020 11:54 am

leghorn wrote:
Altmaier, the Finance Minister is on TV this morning swearing they'll be in and out of Lufthansa in a jiffy and wont' be there for the long run.
How they expect any business to be able to clear 9 to 10 Billion of equity\debt in the space of a few years is beyond me. This company has a market capitalization of 3.8 billion.
They must just expect that investors will forget the basics of investing and just throw money away.
Despite its stranglehold on the DACH region, Lufthansa hasn't been particularly profitable even in good times.


3B plus profit in the past 2 years alone. Not that will happen again any time soon but once up and running and profitable they will be able to clear this in the coming decade and a half. Provided of course the industry doesn’t again go on its arse.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sat May 23, 2020 4:46 pm

Any update on the Airbus condition today?
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1900
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sat May 23, 2020 4:51 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Any update on the Airbus condition today?

Not expecting any decision or even public debate on a holiday weekend.
 
Blerg
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 5:25 am

Altmaier, German finance minister, said that they don't intend on restricting Lufthansa's domestic network in favor of Deutsche Bahn. I guess it comes as no surprise, economic interests always trump ecological ones. After all, Lufthansa would be at a loss here.

Source: https://www.airliners.de/altmaier-einst ... egen/55551
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 6:22 am

mxaxai wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Any update on the Airbus condition today?

Not expecting any decision or even public debate on a holiday weekend.


Which German holiday is going on this weekend?
 
Noshow
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Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 6:37 am

Last thursday was a religious national holiday (Ascension of Christ) that many people used to "bridge" including the weekend. Some perfect quiet time to finally get this deal done.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 7:09 am

Noshow wrote:
Last thursday was a religious national holiday (Ascension of Christ) that many people used to "bridge" including the weekend. Some perfect quiet time to finally get this deal done.


That makes sense. I looked up German holidays before asking the question and saw it, but thought it was too far back to be it for some reason.
 
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Terrier79
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 7:58 am

Originally, the LH supervisory board was supposed to sign off the deal last Friday. Due to the additional requirement to take up all Airbus frames, this meeting was canceled and is now planned for tomorrow.

So I’d expect that there actually are negotiations ongoing right now despite the holiday weekend. The crisis knows no holidays.
 
Noshow
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 8:24 am

You can bet that they will just rubber stamp the final deal that is negotiated higher up right now. That will be the LH-CEO, some cabinet level staff and possibly Merkel for the final nod herself and the EU.
 
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Terrier79
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 8:47 am

Noshow wrote:
You can bet that they will just rubber stamp the final deal that is negotiated higher up right now. That will be the LH-CEO, some cabinet level staff and possibly Merkel for the final nod herself and the EU.

It’s a formal act, but it’s a mandatory formal act. So it can only be done once the final deal has been negotiated. And as I expect that they have no intention to postpone their meeting once again, I’m pretty sure some people are very busy getting the deal done this weekend.
 
Noshow
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 9:24 am

They will meet as many times as required whenever this is needed. Formally they will need to sign it buy guess what their answer will be?
This rescue plan financing is some higher level topic now not a e question of internal company administration. This is a national topic now.
 
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Terrier79
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Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 10:03 am

They need to to agree on the details. They need to get it approved by the supervisory board. The supervisory board has to schedule an extraordinary general meeting with 4 weeks lead time. The shareholders have to agree. There is word on the street that the shareholder’s approval is not set in stone.

For plan B (voluntary administration chapter 11 style), Lufthansa cannot wait until the bitter end. This option is only available as long as there is liquidity in the company, so this is not going to be a neverending story. The time window to agree on a bailout deal with the state is closing quickly.
 
Noshow
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 10:16 am

This is why it now went to some higher level to solve this. The supervisory board is just lower level drama not relevant to solve this anymore. They have had their show crying for help and then demanding unconditional taxpayer billions being a private company. Many people are fed up with this attitude.
 
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Terrier79
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 10:27 am

Noshow wrote:
This is why it now went to some higher level to solve this. The supervisory board is just lower level drama not relevant to solve this anymore. They have had their show crying for help and then demanding unconditional taxpayer billions being a private company. Many people are fed up with this attitude.

Uhm - no?

The negotiations may have been lifted to higher levels on government side maybe. Not sure how deep and early Merkel herself was involved during the process or whether she only engaged personally recently as the talks stalled.

On company side, it was always the executive board negotiating the deal. The supervisory board is the highest (but non-executive) instance of a German „AG“ and has to approve the executive board‘s suggestions of such dimensions. It is nowhere close to „lower level“.
 
Noshow
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 10:29 am

Compared to the now relevant Altmeier, Scholz, Merkel and von der Leyen it is.
They will sign whatever they get. Trust me.
 
Blerg
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 10:40 am

Anyone know what's going on with Austrian Airlines? Are there any updates on their state aid? Let's see if they further delay their return to the skies.
 
leghorn
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 11:29 am

RvA wrote:
leghorn wrote:
Altmaier, the Finance Minister is on TV this morning swearing they'll be in and out of Lufthansa in a jiffy and wont' be there for the long run.
How they expect any business to be able to clear 9 to 10 Billion of equity\debt in the space of a few years is beyond me. This company has a market capitalization of 3.8 billion.
They must just expect that investors will forget the basics of investing and just throw money away.
Despite its stranglehold on the DACH region, Lufthansa hasn't been particularly profitable even in good times.


3B plus profit in the past 2 years alone. Not that will happen again any time soon but once up and running and profitable they will be able to clear this in the coming decade and a half. Provided of course the industry doesn’t again go on its arse.

It is simply not possible to return investment to the Government in the near future while maintaining infrastructure spend within Lufthansa.
It is simply not possible to inflate their equity holding in the short or medium term to the point where they are fully re-imbursed the cost of acquiring that shareholding.
This is a bad deal for the German Taxpayer but such acts of hubris on a massive scale by arrogant, ignorant German Politicians are not unprecedented; https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/sozia ... 74185.html
 
RvA
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 12:46 pm

leghorn wrote:
RvA wrote:
leghorn wrote:
Altmaier, the Finance Minister is on TV this morning swearing they'll be in and out of Lufthansa in a jiffy and wont' be there for the long run.
How they expect any business to be able to clear 9 to 10 Billion of equity\debt in the space of a few years is beyond me. This company has a market capitalization of 3.8 billion.
They must just expect that investors will forget the basics of investing and just throw money away.
Despite its stranglehold on the DACH region, Lufthansa hasn't been particularly profitable even in good times.


3B plus profit in the past 2 years alone. Not that will happen again any time soon but once up and running and profitable they will be able to clear this in the coming decade and a half. Provided of course the industry doesn’t again go on its arse.

It is simply not possible to return investment to the Government in the near future while maintaining infrastructure spend within Lufthansa.
It is simply not possible to inflate their equity holding in the short or medium term to the point where they are fully re-imbursed the cost of acquiring that shareholding.
This is a bad deal for the German Taxpayer but such acts of hubris on a massive scale by arrogant, ignorant German Politicians are not unprecedented; https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/sozia ... 74185.html


Alrighty.
 
leghorn
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 12:54 pm

So you admit you are wrong and you are suffering the same irrational exuberance as the Politicians involved in this sh!tshow.. Alright.
 
Blerg
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 1:08 pm

Lufthansa cabin crew union UFO fears that now that the government did not get a blocking majority, there might be layoffs at LH.

https://www.aero.de/news-35509/Ufo-fuer ... hansa.html
 
leghorn
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 1:25 pm

Blerg wrote:
Lufthansa cabin crew union UFO fears that now that the government did not get a blocking majority, there might be layoffs at LH.

https://www.aero.de/news-35509/Ufo-fuer ... hansa.html

...because a lean, competitive company would be a bad thing.
 
Blerg
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 1:41 pm

leghorn wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Lufthansa cabin crew union UFO fears that now that the government did not get a blocking majority, there might be layoffs at LH.

https://www.aero.de/news-35509/Ufo-fuer ... hansa.html

...because a lean, competitive company would be a bad thing.


I wasn't under the impression LH had a bloated workforce?
 
leghorn
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 1:49 pm

Do you expect them to carry the 135000 workers for the next two to three years while revenue and passenger numbers have fallen off a cliff and the Politicians are promising that the investment of 10Bn will be returned to taxpayers.
 
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Terrier79
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 3:28 pm

Blerg wrote:
Lufthansa cabin crew union UFO fears that now that the government did not get a blocking majority, there might be layoffs at LH.

https://www.aero.de/news-35509/Ufo-fuer ... hansa.html


Of course there will be layoffs, and of course cabin crew will be the most affected group of employees. Lufthansa plans with 300 aircraft less in the air than before the crisis in 2021, 200 less in 2022 and eventually after the expected recovery from Corona in 2023, still with 100 aircraft less. Less aircraft = less crews - simple equation. In total 10.000 employees less across the whole group as already announced by Lufthansa. I personally doubt this would be significantly different with more state influence. This sounds more like wishful thinking of a socialist union leader.
 
blueflyer
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 6:13 pm

Terrier79 wrote:
For plan B (voluntary administration chapter 11 style), Lufthansa cannot wait until the bitter end. This option is only available as long as there is liquidity in the company, so this is not going to be a neverending story. The time window to agree on a bailout deal with the state is closing quickly.

So what would happen if the company waits too long? Forced liquidation of all assets and Lufthansa winds down?
I can't imagine the government would allow that to happen.
 
RvA
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 7:11 pm

leghorn wrote:
So you admit you are wrong and you are suffering the same irrational exuberance as the Politicians involved in this sh!tshow.. Alright.


Haha sure thing bud whatever you say you and the Kool Aid brigade know best.
 
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Terrier79
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 8:17 pm

The Airbus condition is off the table or at least very much softened. But now the EU seems to have asked for some adjustments. (Sorry Link in German, Google translate is you friend)

https://app.handelsblatt.com/unternehme ... 55674.html
 
leghorn
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Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Sun May 24, 2020 8:20 pm

No really, I have to take you to task on this; there is absolutely no way that the company can return the additional debt\equity and still keep the business on an even keel but you are asserting that it is entirely possible. Somebody may be drinking the Kool Aid but it isn't me.
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Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos