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Capricorn
Posts: 202
Joined: Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:11 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:19 pm

LH is IMO very realistic what the return of demand might look like and its not a swift recovery many are hoping for. They recently announced to abort the training of 500 future pilots at their flight academy in Bremen. (source below, in German). LH sets itself up to get somehow through this disturbingly bad period and still emerge as a functioning company.

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/flugschul ... -abbrechen

Also LH still has many WB planes on order that can replace those parked / retired birds if demands returns like LH predicts, otherwise they might have to retire even more metal or delay deliveries. (Luckily the A340s can probably be easily retire by replacing them with 359s or 787s and if this C19 cluster..... manages to get somehow even worse, maybe the 747-8 by the 777-9, but that is just my wilde guess). So what the future fleet of LH is concerned, they have some flexibility, which is nice to have.

Maybe other airlines retire other planes dejure later, because of financial reasons as to absorb the loss later and safe more taxes down the road, but many of these planes might defacto already be retired. I am not a taxation or finance specialist, so I don't know.
 
BealineV953
Posts: 315
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:00 am

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:21 pm

Opus99 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
That plan is to be binned immintently, BA has not updated its winter schedule. They still have the schedule operating 6 flights to NYC on the 25 october, meanwhile the 24th has 2 flights. The 380 is most likely not coming back i'm afraid.

They wouldn't have spent the kind of money they did on the A380's during the last few months if they have no plans to bring them back. They're coming back.
https://simpleflying.com/british-airway ... intenance/

Yeah sure use simple flying as the you’re source of ensuring that.

The reality is that ultimately doesn’t matter when you want to position yourself effectively in the future. That jet even if it comes back. It will be significantly reduced. Quite frankly every A380 has an extremely low certainty of coming back. Except maybe Emirates


Reporting its Second Quarter results on 31st July, IAG said that it expected it to take until at least 2023 for passenger demand to recover to 2019 levels. IAG said that it was planning for capacity to “…increase through quarter 3 and quarter 4, to -74 per cent and -46 per cent versus 2019 respectively, but plans are highly uncertain and subject to easing lockdowns and travel restrictions".

Under "right sizing the business for the future" IAG stated that for BA:
• 4 A380s to be temporarily grounded
• 6 B777s to be temporarily grounded
• 18 narrow body aircraft to be temporarily grounded
• 13 Airbus narrow bodies to be retired early
• 747 fleet exited through early retirements
• A318 fleet exited

IAG did not say when the temporary groundings will come to an end. Given the uncertainty, this is not surprising. However, I’m pretty sure I’ve seen an IAG statement saying that aircraft may be temporarily grounded for “up to two years” (I’ve searched, but can’t find that statement now).

Recovery for the industry has been slow, and the BA winter schedule may be smaller than first planned. This may mean that grounded aircraft will return to service at a slower rate than first planned.
Returning aircraft to service at a slower rate is not the same as deciding now to retire them. I’d be surprised if since the end of July BA has decided to retire A380s. There is no rush to make that decision.

IAG shares are traded on the London Stock Exchange and the ‘Spanish Stock Exchanges’ (the stock exchanges of Madrid, Barcelona, Bilbao and Valencia). Therefore, IAG is obliged to follow strict protocols around what it says about financial performance.

Reporting its results, IAG highlighted an exceptional impairment expense of €731 million related to fleet and other assets (represented by an impairment of fleet assets of €729 million and an impairment of other assets of €2 million) together with an associated inventory impairment expense of €71 million and expenses relating to contractual end of lease payments also in respect of surplus aircraft of €6 million.
IAG said the fleet impairment relates to 55 aircraft, their associated engines and rotable inventories that have been stood down permanently and 6 further aircraft which have been impaired down to their recoverable value at June 30, 2020, which includes:
32 Boeing 747
15 Airbus A340
4 Airbus A330-200
2 Boeing 777-200
4 Airbus A320
4 Embraer E170

So, at that time there was no plan to retire the A380.

My point is, if BA does decide to retire the A380s, I would expect there to be significant further exceptional costs, and a formal public announcement would be required.

For what it is worth, I think that the A380s will return to service, but at a slow rate.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5891
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:46 pm

Polot wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
I reckon Lufthansa is much more dependent on business traffic and connections, which is/will suffer disproportionally from COVID.

British Airways, Air France or Iberia have "historical links" in other parts of the world (Americas, Africa, even Asia for AF and specially BA). But Germany and Lufthansa? Nothing.

Aside from historical links places like London, Paris, etc have far greater tourist demand than places like Frankfurt. People dream of romantic trips to Paris and whatnot. Virtually nobody dreams of someday having the chance to visit Frankfurt.


Also Germany (for reasons that are outside this thread :) ) is not a country that attracts VFR from outside Europe or its immediate area (Turkey). Leaving aside for instance Latin Americans (which overwhelmingly gather around Southern Europe for obvious historical reasons) or Commonwealth (around the UK), let's take China, which is a country which has never been colonised.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_ ... statistics

France 700,000
United Kingdom 433,150
Italy 320,794
Spain 215,970
Germany 212,000


So despite Germany being by far the most populated EU country (and all the China-Germany industrial links over the last few years), the Chinese diaspora is smaller than in Spain (with almost half the population). So even if business traffic slows down in the short/medium term (even after COVID ends), something like Paris-China will still have a major VFR+tourism component, but what about Frankfurt-China? As you say hardly any tourism (unless it is for connections) + little VFR traffic. It is pretty much all about business.

Let's talk about India. Their figures are better in comparison, but nothing astonishing. Note that many of those Indians work for Indian companies in Germany, so you could say this is somehow "business" traffic. There are fewer Indians in Germany than in Italy!

http://mea.gov.in/images/attach/NRIs-and-PIOs_1.pdf

United Kingdom 1,764,000
Italy 203,052
Germany 185,085
France 109,000
Portugal 81,393
Spain 69,988


Or another world-famous diaspora, the Filipinos (OFW), which certainly are very helpful to fill those ME3 flights. Again very small figures.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_Filipinos

United Kingdom 200,000
Italy 165,783
Spain 150,000
Germany 20,589
France 18,300
 
mxaxai
Posts: 2805
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:51 pm

max999 wrote:
So the question is: will LH management fundamentally change their strategy so they can make short haul profitable? Or will they stubbornly stick with long haul and hope that international traffic will return to normal before it's too late?

They're hoping that enough of their competitors go bankrupt or retreat from the DACH market that LH group returns to a profitable short haul network.

This has worked partially - U2 has significantly reduced their Berlin base - but not everywhere (yet): FR and W6 have increased both capacity and market share at VIE. Whether LH can pick up some leisure traffic from Tui or Condor, who are struggling too, remains to be seen. LH has also put pressure on crews, especially at Eurowings, to accept lower pay; this includes their new 'Ocean' project which is a new AOC for LH branded flights at lower cost.
 
airbazar
Posts: 10525
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:07 pm

Opus99 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
That plan is to be binned immintently, BA has not updated its winter schedule. They still have the schedule operating 6 flights to NYC on the 25 october, meanwhile the 24th has 2 flights. The 380 is most likely not coming back i'm afraid.

They wouldn't have spent the kind of money they did on the A380's during the last few months if they have no plans to bring them back. They're coming back.
https://simpleflying.com/british-airway ... intenance/

Yeah sure use simple flying as the you’re source of ensuring that. I mean BA had JUST spent millions on refurbishing on 747s and updating their cabins and guess what? They were binned.

The 744 cabin refresh started years (6?) ago, not in the midst of a pandemic and BA had no way of know what was coming. My point is that BA was performing maintenance on their A380s LAST MONTH, knowing full well what the market is like now and what it is going to be like in the near future. Sure things can change but as of last month they had no plans to retire them and I don't think the market outlook has changed all that much since last month.
 
Opus99
Posts: 2663
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:19 pm

airbazar wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
They wouldn't have spent the kind of money they did on the A380's during the last few months if they have no plans to bring them back. They're coming back.
https://simpleflying.com/british-airway ... intenance/

Yeah sure use simple flying as the you’re source of ensuring that. I mean BA had JUST spent millions on refurbishing on 747s and updating their cabins and guess what? They were binned.

The 744 cabin refresh started years (6?) ago, not in the midst of a pandemic and BA had no way of know what was coming. My point is that BA was performing maintenance on their A380s LAST MONTH, knowing full well what the market is like now and what it is going to be like in the near future. Sure things can change but as of last month they had no plans to retire them and I don't think the market outlook has changed all that much since last month.

You do know those are scheduled and paid for months in advance right?

Also the exceptional items cost will be heavy. IAG is a listed company. Even if the board themselves know the reality there will always be a carefully planned strategy towards the retirement of such a time. Look at LH saying they’re going into long terms storage only to be reactivated in the event of unexpected return in demand. That’s a nice way of saying this jet is done out here

Also the MID Js had just finished their refurb in December...

Heavy maintenance is scheduled months in advance....if the jet is to fly into long term storage for 3-4 years it becomes a scenario of what is the point of bringing them back when you have much better jets coming in. The 35K and the 779. People don’t understand that what happened to the 380 is not a matter of just demand coming back. The 380 was absolutely useless in this pandemic and it still is. Airline executives will be looking at lessons that need to be learnt from the pandemic. Fleet considerations is one of them. What kind of jets do we want to have knowing what we know. I would think they want jets that are versatile, that are low risk and can turn a profit of low demands in the event of a second economic downturn. What some are saying is that even POST pandemic in the point of economic recovery the 380 still won’t be enough. You’re hearing dates like 2023 to return. And WW said that was what even prevented them from buying more; the high price of the aircraft makes a difficult business case when you look at what happens in an economic down turn. It’s a mess
Last edited by Opus99 on Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1532
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:44 am

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:28 pm

Opus99 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
That plan is to be binned immintently, BA has not updated its winter schedule. They still have the schedule operating 6 flights to NYC on the 25 october, meanwhile the 24th has 2 flights. The 380 is most likely not coming back i'm afraid.

They wouldn't have spent the kind of money they did on the A380's during the last few months if they have no plans to bring them back. They're coming back.
https://simpleflying.com/british-airway ... intenance/

Yeah sure use simple flying as the you’re source of ensuring that. I mean BA had JUST spent millions on refurbishing on 747s and updating their cabins and guess what? They were binned.

The reality is that ultimately doesn’t matter when you want to position yourself effectively in the future. That jet even if it comes back. It will be significantly reduced. Who didn’t spend money on heavy maintenance of their 380s? Look at QF that spent millions on refurbishments. A QF 380 flew straight from refurbishment to long term storage and quite frankly every a380 has an extremely low certainty of coming back. Except maybe Emirates


I suppose one big difference with the 747’s is the fact they’re fully paid for and 20+ years old, so can be withdrawn more readily than an aircraft that’s leased or still being paid for. The 747’s were also due to go within the next 5 years anyway, so this pandemic and short-to-medium term outlook gave BA the perfect excuse to expedite their withdrawal. Similarly with VS and their (much smaller) 747 fleet. Growth to pre-COVID levels can be catered for as the 777X’s arrive or bringing back stored aircraft.

As for the A380’s, I agree that the outlook does not look good if things don’t pick up quickly soon. However, I can’t see BA giving up on them just yet unless things really are going to be dire and not recover anytime soon. It would be a much more expensive write down than the recent refurbishment of a few 747’s and would need to be weighed against other considerations such as LHR slots. That said, I see some BA A380 pilots are swapping to other types such as the A350.

Qantas’ situation is linked to their borders and it’s notable the majority of their 787’s have also joined the A380’s in the desert. However, I accept 787’s are the most logical choice to bring back first if/when demand picks up and borders reopen.
 
oldJoe
Posts: 686
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:04 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:29 pm

SCQ wrote:
So despite Germany being by far the most populated EU country (and all the China-Germany industrial links over the last few years), the Chinese diaspora is smaller than in Spain (with almost half the population). So even if business traffic slows down in the short/medium term (even after COVID ends), something like Paris-China will still have a major VFR+tourism component, but what about Frankfurt-China? As you say hardly any tourism (unless it is for connections) + little VFR traffic. It is pretty much all about business.


Really ?
I found stats from 2018 with the worlwide ranking of tourism in million :
1 France 89
2 Spain 83
3 USA 80
4 China 63
5 Italy 62
6 Turkey 46
7 Mexico 41
8 Germany 39
9 Thailand 38
So number eight worlwide is "hardly any tourism" , I guess not !
In 2019 for example the "Oktoberfest" in Munich had 6.3 million visitors from 55 different countries in three weeks.
 
cityshuttle
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2017 3:56 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:29 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Because they got 10 billion in bail outs and in about 10 to 20 million seconds, they will have nothing to show for it.
It's a ticking time bomb.

Others are not in a much better position but being the biggest (in Europe) is a heavy burden at times like these.
If you start an airline out of FRA with a good pile of cash and 20 ATR72's, you may be so successful at keeping LH grounded that you could run them out of business.


Seriously ? You are insisting that 20 ATR’s at FRA will run LH out of business ?

I was hoping that you got over your whatever personal reason to hate LH to death like you’ve already shown in the LH thread.
 
Jetty
Posts: 1403
Joined: Wed Nov 11, 2015 12:27 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:16 pm

oldJoe wrote:
SCQ wrote:
So despite Germany being by far the most populated EU country (and all the China-Germany industrial links over the last few years), the Chinese diaspora is smaller than in Spain (with almost half the population). So even if business traffic slows down in the short/medium term (even after COVID ends), something like Paris-China will still have a major VFR+tourism component, but what about Frankfurt-China? As you say hardly any tourism (unless it is for connections) + little VFR traffic. It is pretty much all about business.


Really ?
I found stats from 2018 with the worlwide ranking of tourism in million :
1 France 89
2 Spain 83
3 USA 80
4 China 63
5 Italy 62
6 Turkey 46
7 Mexico 41
8 Germany 39
9 Thailand 38
So number eight worlwide is "hardly any tourism" , I guess not !
In 2019 for example the "Oktoberfest" in Munich had 6.3 million visitors from 55 different countries in three weeks.

The claim was about Frankfurt, not Germany. So let's redo the list with international visitors (including business) to the relevant European cities:

3 London 19,233,000
6 Paris 17,560,200
25 Amsterdam 8,354,200
56 Munich 4,066,600
87 Frankfurt 2,636,000

Munich and Frankfurt combined have much less international visitors than Amsterdam. :!: Oktoberfest visitors of course mostly hail from the Munich area itself, thus that number isn't very relevant. Berlin is the most popular German city but that doesn't help Lufthansa much: no direct flights and people that need to transfer might as well do so in Paris or Amsterdam.
 
oldJoe
Posts: 686
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:04 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:02 pm

Jetty wrote:
oldJoe wrote:
SCQ wrote:
So despite Germany being by far the most populated EU country (and all the China-Germany industrial links over the last few years), the Chinese diaspora is smaller than in Spain (with almost half the population). So even if business traffic slows down in the short/medium term (even after COVID ends), something like Paris-China will still have a major VFR+tourism component, but what about Frankfurt-China? As you say hardly any tourism (unless it is for connections) + little VFR traffic. It is pretty much all about business.


Really ?
I found stats from 2018 with the worlwide ranking of tourism in million :
1 France 89
2 Spain 83
3 USA 80
4 China 63
5 Italy 62
6 Turkey 46
7 Mexico 41
8 Germany 39
9 Thailand 38
So number eight worlwide is "hardly any tourism" , I guess not !
In 2019 for example the "Oktoberfest" in Munich had 6.3 million visitors from 55 different countries in three weeks.

The claim was about Frankfurt, not Germany. So let's redo the list with international visitors (including business) to the relevant European cities:

3 London 19,233,000
6 Paris 17,560,200
25 Amsterdam 8,354,200
56 Munich 4,066,600
87 Frankfurt 2,636,000

Munich and Frankfurt combined have much less international visitors than Amsterdam. :!: Oktoberfest visitors of course mostly hail from the Munich area itself, thus that number isn't very relevant. Berlin is the most popular German city but that doesn't help Lufthansa much: no direct flights and people that need to transfer might as well do so in Paris or Amsterdam.


What matters how many internaional visitors the two towns had ? If you want to visit a place in Germany without a near international airport , where to go ? I lived in Munich for 6 years and have never visited the "Oktoberfest" even I had to walk only about 300 meters to the main entry ! Have you ever been there to provide any evidence that local people are the main visitors ? I live in the oldest town in Germany wich had about 400.000 non German visitors last year. This town doesn`t have an airport at all nearby ! I spoke with Asian ( and Australians for example ) visitors wich told me that they reached German soil at Frankfurt , and than by coach to my hometown !!! This is the same way for other destinations in Germany. And for Berlin which had 13 million visitors last year where ist the rest of the 39 million visitors ?
 
VSMUT
Posts: 5497
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:20 pm

Jetty wrote:
oldJoe wrote:
SCQ wrote:
So despite Germany being by far the most populated EU country (and all the China-Germany industrial links over the last few years), the Chinese diaspora is smaller than in Spain (with almost half the population). So even if business traffic slows down in the short/medium term (even after COVID ends), something like Paris-China will still have a major VFR+tourism component, but what about Frankfurt-China? As you say hardly any tourism (unless it is for connections) + little VFR traffic. It is pretty much all about business.


Really ?
I found stats from 2018 with the worlwide ranking of tourism in million :
1 France 89
2 Spain 83
3 USA 80
4 China 63
5 Italy 62
6 Turkey 46
7 Mexico 41
8 Germany 39
9 Thailand 38
So number eight worlwide is "hardly any tourism" , I guess not !
In 2019 for example the "Oktoberfest" in Munich had 6.3 million visitors from 55 different countries in three weeks.

The claim was about Frankfurt, not Germany. So let's redo the list with international visitors (including business) to the relevant European cities:

3 London 19,233,000
6 Paris 17,560,200
25 Amsterdam 8,354,200
56 Munich 4,066,600
87 Frankfurt 2,636,000

Munich and Frankfurt combined have much less international visitors than Amsterdam. :!: Oktoberfest visitors of course mostly hail from the Munich area itself, thus that number isn't very relevant. Berlin is the most popular German city but that doesn't help Lufthansa much: no direct flights and people that need to transfer might as well do so in Paris or Amsterdam.


You should also include the upland. It was brought up in a different thread, but if you include surrounding areas within a certain reasonable distance, the population covered by Frankfurt is just as big as its competitors, 50 million or so. With the ICE, Köln, Düsseldorf and the Ruhr area are only an hour away. Within 2 hours you have Stuttgart, Mannheim, Karlsruhe, Würzburg etc., even more once you include the autobahn. You need to find tourist numbers for much more than just Frankfurt itself.
 
United857
Posts: 127
Joined: Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:37 am

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:58 pm

upperdeckfan wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Didn't they announce last week that the entire A380 fleet was leaving permanently now? The 17 A340-300 are still there, and will probably soldier on until replaced by more A350-900s and the 787-9.


6 frames are retiring permanently, remaining 8 frames are going into log-term storage and will be brought back if demands recovery is faster than what LH currently expects,

That was the initial retirement plan. However, last week it was further updated:

"In addition to the fleet changes already communicated, the following decisions have been made: After six Airbus A380s were finally taken out of service in the spring, the remaining eight A380s and ten A340-600s, which were previously intended for flight service, will be transferred to long-term storage and removed from planning. These aircraft will only be reactivated in the event of an unexpectedly rapid market recovery. In addition, the remaining seven Airbus A340-600s will be permanently decommissioned."

See https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/newsroom/releases/lufthansa-decides-on-third-package-within-restructuring-program.html for the source.
 
RainerBoeing777
Posts: 593
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:48 am

I really do not understand Lufthansa they reduce their fleet too much, and now they launch new destinations, I still think that the reduction of fleet they are doing is too extreme a measure

https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/newsroom/releases/summer-2021-six-new-long-haul-tourist-destinations-from-frankfurt.html
 
User avatar
BA744PHX
Posts: 561
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2007 3:42 am

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:23 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
I really do not understand Lufthansa they reduce their fleet too much, and now they launch new destinations, I still think that the reduction of fleet they are doing is too extreme a measure

https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/newsroom/releases/summer-2021-six-new-long-haul-tourist-destinations-from-frankfurt.html

ANC was to launch this past June however postponed due to COVID,

ANC/PUJ/MRU 3 weekly are all Eurowings,
At the moment both LAS 3 weekly/PHX 5 weekly are also scheduled for next summer.

This should tie up most of the EW fleet, I'm assuming no more EW DUS longhaul
 
LUKAS10
Posts: 51
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:54 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:43 am

1) LH is by far the Europe's largest airlines and aviation group so the cuts are naturally more visible.

2) LH always had way too many employees! Especially in its management. So the staff reduction is another logical step.

3) While in the UK or France it's pretty clear where the commercial/cultural/financial/most populated cities are, Germany belongs to one of the most decentralised countries in Europe.

4) LH has a dual hub system; FRA and MUC are completely different cities and have both very different strategies.

5) Despite FRA being the most liveable city out of all the above-mentioned hubs, it has very little to offer to international visitors who don't intend to do business. I love Frankfurt but would never recommend anyone from the other side of the world to spend their money on a trip to that town.

6) LH is a typical German business. It means zero flexibility and a management that believes things which always worked in the past will remain working even in the future. LH is simply way too big, and in combination with a German 'risk-avoidance', unable to react in a faster pace to unexpected challenges or competition (the way Britons or Dutch can do). Germans are technocratic socialists, Britons/Dutch are pragmatic capitalists.

7) LH had been here mainly for business! Tourists/VFRs have more convent and way cheaper options of how to get to their destination. Despite many years spent in FRA, I used LH only because of my husband's staff tickets. Wherever I needed to get to, I always ended up sitting on SQ, EK or QR flight. Not just because of the price, but also because of a zero memorable experience LH provides to its customers.

8) LH cannot rely on VFR as much as its European peers can. While BA has commonwealth and AF has Africa, Germany lost all its colonial ties. There's plenty of Turks living in Germany but they rather use TK or other airlines to visit Turkey.

9) Due to its high cost structure, LH is less competitive on certain markets.

10) LH Group is huge, still looking for its identity, different airlines - different carriers - different needs. Even though they all are different, there's basically nothing what would really distinguish them; all of it right in the middle of Europe, have similar labour costs and similar hubs. OS, EW and SN are three projects which require a complete change.

... So there's nothing wrong going on with LH, the company is just looking for the right size. This has always been an unsolved issue for the company.
 
factsonly
Posts: 3188
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:08 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:11 am

A clear sign that LH is moving away from classic Business routes to more Sun destinations aimed at German tourists:

NEW - Summer 2021 - FRA - Male:
LH704 FRA2005 – 0855+1MLE 333 26
LH705 MLE1050 – 1805FRA 333 37

NEW - Summer 2021 - Frankfurt – Mombasa – Zanzibar eff 31MAR21 2 weekly A330-300
LH592 FRA1830 – 0405+1MBA0535+1 – 0630+1ZNZ 333 36
LH593 ZNZ0850 – 0945MBA1115 – 1855FRA 333 47

source: Airlineroute
 
Aither
Posts: 1315
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:28 am

I'm not sure LH is more visionary than others, I think they are more in deep trouble than others.

The german market is too fragmented so they have to operate large hubs to bring passengers from across Europe to sustain a significant network.

Problem they were already losing more than others against ME3+TK. One reason among others is smaller hubs are always less competitive than bigger ones. They were doing financially a bit better than European counterparts only because yields from Germany are higher. But now it's over. Yields will take more time to recover than traffic.

As Lukas10 also mentioned their network and customer base is less solid than those of BA or AF. The domestic market of AF for example includes the Caribbeans...

However dropping weapons now will make them the no1 loser of this crisis. They can't afford to downsize too much their hubs. LH with no strong hub would become quickly a secondary carrier, and we all know that the survival rate of secondary carriers is pretty low.
 
musapapaya
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 10:02 am

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:55 am

I am not qualified to say whether LH is in any way deeper trouble than others - however, they are a much more diverse business and have quite a few dedicated freighters, which for the moment is bringing in the revenue. And the less requirement for them to fly passenger planes for cargo only flights. Let's not forget they have LH Technik and also their own catering company, both of which is sizeable on a global scale.

It is true that they needed a government bailout and they are a complicated company, but its worth remembering that the LH Group is more than just the passenger airline, and this diversity may arguably give them some benefits and flexibility going forward.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 2805
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:59 am

musapapaya wrote:
Let's not forget they have LH Technik and also their own catering company, both of which is sizeable on a global scale.

It is true that they needed a government bailout and they are a complicated company, but its worth remembering that the LH Group is more than just the passenger airline, and this diversity may arguably give them some benefits and flexibility going forward.

They're planning to sell the catering business to repay the bailout and loans.
 
Sokes
Posts: 2773
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:33 pm

Since Berlin airport is supposed to open soon, isn't it natural that existing hubs shrink a bit?

If there will be a glut of cheap 12 year old B777-300ER, why not to retire old planes? If the market really picks up, just buy new or cheap second hand.

Add Istanbul. I assume there are lots of flights from all German cities to Istanbul. Happy to be corrected.
 
factsonly
Posts: 3188
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:08 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:44 pm

This analysis presents the 20 busiest air routes in the world in COVID 2020 versus 2019, interesting to note:

September 2020:

- LHR = 8 routes in top 20 - DXB, JFK, HKG, DOH, SIN, ORD (was 7 routes in 2019)
- AMS = 4 routes in top 20 - BKK, ATL, JFK, SIN (was 0 routes)
- CDG = 1 routes in top 20 - DXB (was 3 routes)
- FRA = 0 was 0
- MUC = 0 was 0

A strange world we live in.

https://www.anna.aero/2020/10/02/dubai- ... e-by-asks/
 
andrew1996
Posts: 163
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:41 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Sat Oct 03, 2020 5:03 am

Highly doubt BA is getting rid of the A380s; they even programmed it to start flying this winter earlier this summer in their system. Also, no announcements whatsoever or even hints from BA they are getting rid of some A380s. LHR is heavily slot restrictired and LHR will be slot constrained once the crisis is over. Unlike other airlines, BA can probably depend on O&D to/from LHR to fill up the A380s. I think with BA retiring all their 744s, that is all they plan on cutting from their fleet in order to compensate for such a huge loss of capacity over the next few years.

I wonder if LH may also be depending/betting on its JV and close star alliance partners to do more of the flying like to Singapore, USA, Canada, Japan etc? Also they may be planing on using Swiss more for more of the transit passenger traffic since Swiss has the efficient 77W.

LH aside from the A359s doesn't really have fuel efficient planes so that could be way it is cutting more too. Look at SQ and in this crisis they are currently almost only flying A359 and 78X, UA is flying their 787s a lot etc but LH is stuck with more inefficient planes
 
Capricorn
Posts: 202
Joined: Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:11 pm

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:07 pm

Some more recent LH news. The financial situation is not looking too great for LH. I guess if this situation goes on into late 2021 LH will either have to substantially downsize or ask for Bailout No. 2.

Deutsche Lufthansa is burning cash at a rate of €500m a month and is far from breaking even, the German airline's chief executive has said.

Carsten Spohr said the airlines group, hit by Europe's worsening coronavirus situation, was hoping to stop the outflow of cash once it reached a utilisation rate of about 50% for seat capacity.

"That is absolutely not foreseeable. We are happy if we can reach 20% during winter," he added



Source: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1 ... ansa-cash/

Same Statements, in German, more reliable
https://www.aerotelegraph.com/lufthansa ... auslastung
 
Blerg
Posts: 5222
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:05 pm

What I don't get is what kind of estimates were they making when they were asking for 9 billion? What was their forecast for winter 2020.
 
Noshow
Posts: 2827
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:44 pm

Hoping for just a dip the idea had been to keep the staff until traffic returns. Now the market remains flat for the winter. No recovery to write home about. So it will be another bailout AND restructuring. This will hurt many spoke places big time.
Some group within the investors from the beginning supported to better go chapter 11 to renegotiate legacy staff contracts instead of borrowing money. They might gain traction now. I see the initial tough credit conditions and interest rates being softened by the government.
 
Blerg
Posts: 5222
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:49 pm

Will other LH Group airlines need one as well? Bailout that is
 
Noshow
Posts: 2827
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:52 pm

Possible. Depends on future fleet sizes and such. We are not at the point to restart serious planning. It's just short notice day to day travel and weak business. Corona goes up in Europe including badly in Germany at this time and travel will not recover immediately.
 
Breathe
Posts: 872
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:06 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:41 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
I really do not understand Lufthansa they reduce their fleet too much, and now they launch new destinations, I still think that the reduction of fleet they are doing is too extreme a measure

https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/newsroom/releases/summer-2021-six-new-long-haul-tourist-destinations-from-frankfurt.html

ANC was to launch this past June however postponed due to COVID,

ANC/PUJ/MRU 3 weekly are all Eurowings,
At the moment both LAS 3 weekly/PHX 5 weekly are also scheduled for next summer.

This should tie up most of the EW fleet, I'm assuming no more EW DUS longhaul

The MRU flight appears to be operated by Brussels Airlines for Eurowings:

LH5430 Operated by: BRUSSELS AIRLINES FOR EUROWINGS


Is this flight going to be operated by Brussels Airlines plane or will it be a Eurowings plane registered as a Brussels Airlines aircraft?

Its a shame it won't be operated by Lufthansa mainline proper, but I guess it is cheaper to use their Eurowings and Brussels Airlines subsidiaries.
 
User avatar
BA744PHX
Posts: 561
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2007 3:42 am

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:44 pm

Breathe wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
I really do not understand Lufthansa they reduce their fleet too much, and now they launch new destinations, I still think that the reduction of fleet they are doing is too extreme a measure

https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/newsroom/releases/summer-2021-six-new-long-haul-tourist-destinations-from-frankfurt.html

ANC was to launch this past June however postponed due to COVID,

ANC/PUJ/MRU 3 weekly are all Eurowings,
At the moment both LAS 3 weekly/PHX 5 weekly are also scheduled for next summer.

This should tie up most of the EW fleet, I'm assuming no more EW DUS longhaul

The MRU flight appears to be operated by Brussels Airlines for Eurowings:

LH5430 Operated by: BRUSSELS AIRLINES FOR EUROWINGS


Is this flight going to be operated by Brussels Airlines plane or will it be a Eurowings plane registered as a Brussels Airlines aircraft?

Its a shame it won't be operated by Lufthansa mainline proper, but I guess it is cheaper to use their Eurowings and Brussels Airlines subsidiaries.


As of yesterday LH/EW pulled both PHX/LAS from schedule
 
Breathe
Posts: 872
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:06 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:46 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
Breathe wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
ANC was to launch this past June however postponed due to COVID,

ANC/PUJ/MRU 3 weekly are all Eurowings,
At the moment both LAS 3 weekly/PHX 5 weekly are also scheduled for next summer.

This should tie up most of the EW fleet, I'm assuming no more EW DUS longhaul

The MRU flight appears to be operated by Brussels Airlines for Eurowings:

LH5430 Operated by: BRUSSELS AIRLINES FOR EUROWINGS


Is this flight going to be operated by Brussels Airlines plane or will it be a Eurowings plane registered as a Brussels Airlines aircraft?

Its a shame it won't be operated by Lufthansa mainline proper, but I guess it is cheaper to use their Eurowings and Brussels Airlines subsidiaries.


As of yesterday LH/EW pulled both PHX/LAS from schedule

What does that have to do with what plane operates LH5430 :confused:
 
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BA744PHX
Posts: 561
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Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:56 pm

Breathe wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
Breathe wrote:
The MRU flight appears to be operated by Brussels Airlines for Eurowings:



Is this flight going to be operated by Brussels Airlines plane or will it be a Eurowings plane registered as a Brussels Airlines aircraft?

Its a shame it won't be operated by Lufthansa mainline proper, but I guess it is cheaper to use their Eurowings and Brussels Airlines subsidiaries.


As of yesterday LH/EW pulled both PHX/LAS from schedule

What does that have to do with what plane operates LH5430 :confused:

Same question, you replied to my post talking about service, what does LH5430 have to do with my post?
 
Breathe
Posts: 872
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:06 pm

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:03 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
Breathe wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:

As of yesterday LH/EW pulled both PHX/LAS from schedule

What does that have to do with what plane operates LH5430 :confused:

Same question, you replied to my post talking about service, what does LH5430 have to do with my post?

Your post mentioned MRU which is why I replied to it.
 
Blerg
Posts: 5222
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:31 am

Lufthansa suspends a 28 year old company agreements on social plans and the reconciliation of interests among ground staff. Lufthansa plans to fire 27.000 people, more than initially planned as demand for air travel has not picked up.

https://www.reuters.com/article/deutsch ... EKBN270221

----------------

I noticed LH has seriously downsized their MUC operations and many destinations have been shifted to FRA. Anyone knows more on this? Has MUC been considerably downsized in favor of FRA?
 
mxaxai
Posts: 2805
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:53 pm

Lufthansa Posts Negative Adj. EBIT In Q3; Sees Demand For Air Travel Remains Low

Lufthansa Group reported that its third-quarter preliminary adjusted EBIT was negative 1.262 billion euros, compared to positive 1.297 billion euros in the prior year. ...

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/lufthan ... 2020-10-20

1.262 bln. € losses in Q3 2020, but LH is confident that they'll survive for the foreseeable future. Stocks are up by up to 9% today, so the investors seem satisfied.
 
Blerg
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:35 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Lufthansa Posts Negative Adj. EBIT In Q3; Sees Demand For Air Travel Remains Low

Lufthansa Group reported that its third-quarter preliminary adjusted EBIT was negative 1.262 billion euros, compared to positive 1.297 billion euros in the prior year. ...

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/lufthan ... 2020-10-20

1.262 bln. € losses in Q3 2020, but LH is confident that they'll survive for the foreseeable future. Stocks are up by up to 9% today, so the investors seem satisfied.


I am not too worried about Lufthansa making it out alive, I doubt Germany would allow it to go under. I would be more worried about OS, EW and SN... and maybe even LX.
 
Noshow
Posts: 2827
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:48 pm

They need to brutally shrink now. That's the reality. There is less traffic to share.
It looks like the core airline will scale down, including it's wages, instead of transferring their business to lower cost divisions outside of the formerly untouchable core company.
 
RvA
Posts: 524
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:50 pm

Blerg wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
Lufthansa Posts Negative Adj. EBIT In Q3; Sees Demand For Air Travel Remains Low

Lufthansa Group reported that its third-quarter preliminary adjusted EBIT was negative 1.262 billion euros, compared to positive 1.297 billion euros in the prior year. ...

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/lufthan ... 2020-10-20

1.262 bln. € losses in Q3 2020, but LH is confident that they'll survive for the foreseeable future. Stocks are up by up to 9% today, so the investors seem satisfied.


I am not too worried about Lufthansa making it out alive, I doubt Germany would allow it to go under. I would be more worried about OS, EW and SN... and maybe even LX.


Still a fair bit of the loans available to each of them from what I read. Looking pretty precarious but I think LH is being more conservative than others looking at the schedules. I think the deciding factor, for any airline will be how Jan-Apr will be. I think Nov-Dec are already given up on. Quite a few friends of mine have already had their Christmas flights on Ryanair and several others cancelled.
 
Blerg
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:54 pm

RvA wrote:
Blerg wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/lufthan ... 2020-10-20

1.262 bln. € losses in Q3 2020, but LH is confident that they'll survive for the foreseeable future. Stocks are up by up to 9% today, so the investors seem satisfied.


I am not too worried about Lufthansa making it out alive, I doubt Germany would allow it to go under. I would be more worried about OS, EW and SN... and maybe even LX.


Still a fair bit of the loans available to each of them from what I read. Looking pretty precarious but I think LH is being more conservative than others looking at the schedules. I think the deciding factor, for any airline will be how Jan-Apr will be. I think Nov-Dec are already given up on. Quite a few friends of mine have already had their Christmas flights on Ryanair and several others cancelled.


Loans for their daughter companies? Even for SN? I remember last negotiations were very difficult in Belgium, I can't imagine them being any easier this time around. I guess the situation won't get better until we get a vaccine as we are going to go from one wave to another. It's obvious that all lockdowns and restrictions are not a long-term solution.
 
RvA
Posts: 524
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:04 pm

Blerg wrote:
RvA wrote:
Blerg wrote:

I am not too worried about Lufthansa making it out alive, I doubt Germany would allow it to go under. I would be more worried about OS, EW and SN... and maybe even LX.


Still a fair bit of the loans available to each of them from what I read. Looking pretty precarious but I think LH is being more conservative than others looking at the schedules. I think the deciding factor, for any airline will be how Jan-Apr will be. I think Nov-Dec are already given up on. Quite a few friends of mine have already had their Christmas flights on Ryanair and several others cancelled.



Loans for their daughter companies? Even for SN? I remember last negotiations were very difficult in Belgium, I can't imagine them being any easier this time around. I guess the situation won't get better until we get a vaccine as we are going to go from one wave to another. It's obvious that all lockdowns and restrictions are not a long-term solution.


The daughter companies first round of loans are apparently not depleted, not even close supposedly.
So far Europe still seems to be getting more extreme in terms of responding and locking down so hope they wise up soon before airlines and other companies start failing as a result. Fingers crossed.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 2805
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Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:04 pm

RvA wrote:
Still a fair bit of the loans available to each of them from what I read. Looking pretty precarious but I think LH is being more conservative than others looking at the schedules. I think the deciding factor, for any airline will be how Jan-Apr will be. I think Nov-Dec are already given up on. Quite a few friends of mine have already had their Christmas flights on Ryanair and several others cancelled.

Winter 20/21 will be hibernation time. Any passengers in Jan-Apr are bonus cash. What will really matter - and could very well become a bloodbath - is summer 21. If travel really reopens, all airlines will fight for marketshare but not all might have the deep reserves or the customer appeal to survive that. Another surprise event next year could easily break a few necks.
 
Capricorn
Posts: 202
Joined: Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:11 pm

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:31 pm

Noshow wrote:
They need to brutally shrink now. That's the reality. There is less traffic to share.
It looks like the core airline will scale down, including it's wages, instead of transferring their business to lower cost divisions outside of the formerly untouchable core company.


This. All airlines need to get fit for the transition period and the sad truth is that simply means a smaller industry for 2-4 years.

mxaxai wrote:
Winter 20/21 will be hibernation time. Any passengers in Jan-Apr are bonus cash. What will really matter - and could very well become a bloodbath - is summer 21. If travel really reopens, all airlines will fight for marketshare but not all might have the deep reserves or the customer appeal to survive that. Another surprise event next year could easily break a few necks.


IMO LH's usual strengths, that made them the successful company they were before C19, just became their biggest weakness. LH is too dependent on business traffic, long haul service and their core hubs. With VFR and Leisure being LH's weak links they will have some problems making money in S21. AFAIK German leisure travellers often take LCCs or DE and Tui will probably try to fill its own airline. Furthermore LH is too concentrated on FRA and MUC and with FRA and MUC having less pull as well as O&D compared to LHR, CDG. (EW is better suited as they serve more airports) And since all current predictions point to short haul travel rebounding once again the earliest once wave 2 is over, LH simply does not have the cost basis to effectively compete against FR, U2 and so on (again EW is better positioned) And unlike AFKL, LH has no oversees territories to serve nor any distant VFR traffic, like Uk to India. German VFR traffic is usually not LH's strong point. Therefore I think (my hobby analysis), that LH is in big troubles, even more than AFKL or IAG. For S21 EW would be the best positioned LH group airline to make money. Very unfortunate developments and I only hope the best for LH (had usually very good experiences with them or their group airlines)
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:46 pm

I already wrote a while back that LH will be begging for round 2 of bailouts between Christmas and Spring 2021.
They're going to start around Christmas time IMO.

It doesn't matter how they contained their losses in Q3. The question is how much cash they burned processing refunds and operating flights booked by vouchers.
Didn't they have like 4 billions in refunds pending? That plus these losses and they may already have burned through half the bailout money.

This crisis is a tragedy for all airlines and I think that the most suitable model is bankruptcy followed by nationalization, downsizing, then when things pick up, IPO privatisation and growth.

JAL went through this process in the late 2000's and was transformed into an amazing airline.

LH should stop the pursuit for size and low costs, focus on becoming the pride of Germany by offering high quality throughout their offering. Quit the EW and "fight the ME3" shenanigans and focus on offering the best possible service, hard and soft product in all their markets. A premium service at a premium price.
 
Capricorn
Posts: 202
Joined: Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:11 pm

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:37 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I already wrote a while back that LH will be begging for round 2 of bailouts between Christmas and Spring 2021.
They're going to start around Christmas time IMO.


Well they still had 10 billion in liquidity at the end of September and according to the source below (1) (thereof 6.3 billion government aid remaining) and claims are less than 300 million Euros per LH's own press release (2). So they will make it to S21, but if S21 will be indeed underwhelming (as I kind of fear unfortunately), they probably either need bailout 2.0 (of alternatively file for BK) at some point during winter 22. But that is too far ahead to make a serious prediction, there are more pressing needs in the immediate future that are affecting LH, like how to adequately downsize in this bleak business environment.

(1) https://www.aerotelegraph.com/lufthansa ... verfuegung

(2) https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/newsr ... -paid.html
 
Blerg
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Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:56 am

Thing with next summer is that many people will be worst off in terms of finances. Sure this summer many had booked their holidays either before covid or just as it was taking off. However next summer the situation might be much worse which is why I think S21 will be a much more challenging period as I doubt demand will recover and for many airlines access to finances will be a much more difficult task.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:20 am

That is a likely scenario and one no airline in Europe could survive.
 
Noshow
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Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:41 am

Not all industry is doing bad and not all people lose their jobs. This is why I don't believe in doom scenarios. Some people actually save money and are hungry to travel again. Look at home improvement stores, booming. Or car sales or car industry quarterly profits. For airlines this means business travel demand will come back and private travel as well. However both will be more cost concerned.

I see the main challenge to keep hub networks going. Smaller airports might lose their hub services as airlines need to save cost and shrink in size and this affects the entire network.
 
Flying-Tiger
Posts: 4149
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 1999 5:35 am

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:12 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I already wrote a while back that LH will be begging for round 2 of bailouts between Christmas and Spring 2021.
They're going to start around Christmas time IMO.

It doesn't matter how they contained their losses in Q3. The question is how much cash they burned processing refunds and operating flights booked by vouchers.
Didn't they have like 4 billions in refunds pending? That plus these losses and they may already have burned through half the bailout money.


Reading clearly helps... as per LH´s own ad-hoc market release:

- End of September 2020 available liquidity: 10.1 bn EUR
- thereof: 6.3 bn EUR available out of stabilization packages
- during 3rd quarter paid out 2.0 bn EUR as compensation for cancelled flights

They expect only 25% of the regular schedule (ASK) to be flown during winter... clear words: flights to be planned to make sure they have a positive cash-contribution to the company.

If cash burn does not slow it means the company has cash at hands for about another two years. However, to assume that cash burn won´t think is a pretty unrealistic assumption.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 10417
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Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:25 am

Noshow wrote:
Not all industry is doing bad and not all people lose their jobs. This is why I don't believe in doom scenarios. Some people actually save money and are hungry to travel again. Look at home improvement stores, booming. Or car sales or car industry quarterly profits. For airlines this means business travel demand will come back and private travel as well. However both will be more cost concerned.

I see the main challenge to keep hub networks going. Smaller airports might lose their hub services as airlines need to save cost and shrink in size and this affects the entire network.


COVID-19 never was a problem of people not wanting to travel but one of people not being allowed to travel without huge risks for them.
 
RvA
Posts: 524
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package

Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:26 pm

seahawk wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Not all industry is doing bad and not all people lose their jobs. This is why I don't believe in doom scenarios. Some people actually save money and are hungry to travel again. Look at home improvement stores, booming. Or car sales or car industry quarterly profits. For airlines this means business travel demand will come back and private travel as well. However both will be more cost concerned.

I see the main challenge to keep hub networks going. Smaller airports might lose their hub services as airlines need to save cost and shrink in size and this affects the entire network.


COVID-19 never was a problem of people not wanting to travel but one of people not being allowed to travel without huge risks for them.


Many people I personally know do not want to travel, even if they would be allowed to. This is echoed in many surveys.

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