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SR380
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Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 2:57 pm

East African Federation's national airline

Fri May 01, 2020 5:10 pm

Hey guys,

I was browsing through YouTube today, and I came to realized that six east African nations, which are South-Sudan, Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda are set to create a Confederation from 2023 onward.

I am not going to details this in here, but there is some articles you can find online, or this YouTube video which details the all process if you are interested.

https://youtu.be/LzvMHu-_FjE

My question is completely hypothetical, but IF these six countries national airlines are surviving the CORONA crises, do you think they would either:

Make an alliance to forme a mega career, such as LATAM?

Or operates as they do today?

If this would come to fruition in 3-5 years, this could be a threat to the giant Ethiopian right next door, isn't it?
 
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SR380
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Posts: 846
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Re: East African Federation's national airline

Fri May 01, 2020 5:21 pm

I just checked their fleet by curiosity. That would be quite an odile to merge all these airlines. If merger today, the fleet would comprise the following:

1 Fokker 50
8 Dash
6 CRJ-900
15 EMB-190
4 A220
2 A330
4 A330neo
18 B737s
10 B787s
3 B777s
 
klakzky123
Posts: 688
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:05 am

Re: East African Federation's national airline

Fri May 01, 2020 5:46 pm

SR380 wrote:
Hey guys,

I was browsing through YouTube today, and I came to realized that six east African nations, which are South-Sudan, Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda are set to create a Confederation from 2023 onward.

I am not going to details this in here, but there is some articles you can find online, or this YouTube video which details the all process if you are interested.

https://youtu.be/LzvMHu-_FjE

My question is completely hypothetical, but IF these six countries national airlines are surviving the CORONA crises, do you think they would either:

Make an alliance to forme a mega career, such as LATAM?

Or operates as they do today?

If this would come to fruition in 3-5 years, this could be a threat to the giant Ethiopian right next door, isn't it?


They've been talking about this since the 60s. At best, they'll implement some weaker version of the EU Single Market. And that's a best case scenario. So in short, countries will keep their own national airlines but you might see something like the ECAA where airlines have full rights to operate between and within member states.

But if I were a betting man, I'd bet that nothing concrete actually happens.
 
ScottB
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Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: East African Federation's national airline

Fri May 01, 2020 5:53 pm

SR380 wrote:
IF these six countries national airlines are surviving the CORONA crises, do you think they would either:

Make an alliance to forme a mega career, such as LATAM?

Or operates as they do today?

If this would come to fruition in 3-5 years, this could be a threat to the giant Ethiopian right next door, isn't it?


Even if these countries were to come together, the resulting confederation would probably look a lot more like the EU rather than the US. And given the way the aviation market in Europe has evolved, the most likely outcome will continue to be multiple national carriers. As national carriers continue to be economic development tools and symbols of national prestige, I think it's even more likely that each constituent nation will continue to retain its national carrier.

Even in a theoretical situation involving a merged carrier, that carrier really wouldn't be meaningfully larger than KQ is today -- so the situation would pretty much mirror the status quo.
 
B-HOP
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Re: East African Federation's national airline

Fri May 01, 2020 6:08 pm

They have tried this before, in the form of East African Airways, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Airways, Jamaica/Barbados among-st a few smaller island are now sharing a flag carrier,I would say they would end up making one place their hub and then connect them for intercontinental market
Live life to max!!!
 
gmcc
Posts: 332
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2006 3:54 am

Re: East African Federation's national airline

Fri May 01, 2020 6:09 pm

It has been tried before as East African Airways.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Airways
Not sure it would end any better the second time around with even more parties involved.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: East African Federation's national airline

Fri May 01, 2020 6:19 pm

B-HOP wrote:
They have tried this before, in the form of East African Airways, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Airways, Jamaica/Barbados among-st a few smaller island are now sharing a flag carrier,I would say they would end up making one place their hub and then connect them for intercontinental market

Meanwhile, the nations that don’t get the hub all complain, and threaten to withdraw at every change of government.
We have seen this road show before.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: East African Federation's national airline

Fri May 01, 2020 6:57 pm

It's been tried with EAA and if they tried again it would result in the same fate as Air Afrique.
 
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SR380
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Re: East African Federation's national airline

Fri May 01, 2020 7:48 pm

eta unknown wrote:
It's been tried with EAA and if they tried again it would result in the same fate as Air Afrique.


So, same should then apply to LATAM?
 
SurlyBonds
Posts: 383
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:24 am

Re: East African Federation's national airline

Fri May 01, 2020 8:16 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Meanwhile, the nations that don’t get the hub all complain, and threaten to withdraw at every change of government.
We have seen this road show before.


Yeah, with that failure called SAS?

Or, for that matter, airlines like EasyJet or WizzAir, which supplanted Malev?

I suspect that South Sudan realizes that Juba will never be an international hub. They would be better off pooling their resources to get connectivity via Nairobi and Kigali than going it alone.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: East African Federation's national airline

Fri May 01, 2020 9:06 pm

To paraphrase Cyril Figgis from Archer, comparing east Africa to Scandinavia, the EU, or South America is like comparing apples to nazi oranges.

The biggest comparison between Europe and Latin America to the East African Confederation is that many people in the first 2 regions can afford to travel. Next is the first 2 regions are also very politically stable and wealthy. The first 2 also have Open Skies (or near so) treaties or even a common market for aviation. The first 2 have large demand for business as well as leisure travel from all over the world.

For the kind of nations in this EAC, airlines are more of a national pride thing than a totally privatised business, with economic considerations as a means of infrastructure a distant second to said pride. Saying a EAC airline can be a threat to Ethiopian is totally laughable, since Ethiopian actually makes money and is in a economically prosperous nation that is on the up and coming on the world stage.

Comparing an EAC consolidated airline to LATAM is not valid. LATAM is based in a politically stable part of the world. Let's say they chose to shut down their Ecuador operation. Ecuador isn't the kind of nation that would get its jollies off by banning LA and making it's own airline in spite only to become a burden on their citizens when all they can muster to operate are 2 CRJ-200s or something like that.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
Dirigible
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Re: East African Federation's national airline

Sat May 02, 2020 8:42 am

If the merger was today, the 4 A330neo would not be in the fleet as both Uganda & Rwanda are still awaiting delivery of those aircraft.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: East African Federation's national airline

Sat May 02, 2020 8:53 am

SR380 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
It's been tried with EAA and if they tried again it would result in the same fate as Air Afrique.


So, same should then apply to LATAM?

No it shouldn't, and you know it. Also, read what TW772LR wrote.
 
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eastafspot
Posts: 1668
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Re: East African Federation's national airline

Sat May 02, 2020 10:46 am

SR380 wrote:
If this would come to fruition in 3-5 years, this could be a threat to the giant Ethiopian right next door, isn't it?


This idea seemed much better imho:

"Kenya Airways believes a merger between itself, Ethiopian Airlines and South African Airways is necessary to create a single large carrier representing Africa and able to compete globally. And Africa’s numerous regional airlines are looking to these three big carriers to support their growth and improve the industry’s safety performance on the continent."

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... an-and-saa

https://www.ethiosports.com/2012/12/01/ ... n-airways/
Fly with Air Burundi, Air Tanzania, Golden Wings Aviation, Kenya Airways, RwandAir and Uganda Airlines...Jumuiya ya Afrika mashariki !
 
VSMUT
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Re: East African Federation's national airline

Sat May 02, 2020 11:04 am

The biggest benefit such a deal could bring is a massive, open borders free trade market that would allow private airlines to operate freely across all member states.

A massive national carrier carrier across all states only looks good until you realise it would be run by the same types of cronies that failed to run Kenya Airways, Air Tanzania, South African Airways, Uganda Airlines, East African Airways and so on. It would be like an African Alitalia or Sabena.
 
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eastafspot
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Re: East African Federation's national airline

Sat May 02, 2020 11:04 am

SR380 wrote:
the fleet would comprise the following:


Have you included Air Burundi fleet?
- 1 Beechcraft 1900 C
- 1 Xian MA60

https://www.yaga-burundi.com/2020/air-b ... e-exister/
Fly with Air Burundi, Air Tanzania, Golden Wings Aviation, Kenya Airways, RwandAir and Uganda Airlines...Jumuiya ya Afrika mashariki !
 
VSMUT
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Re: East African Federation's national airline

Sat May 02, 2020 11:04 am

The biggest benefit such a deal could bring is a massive, open borders free trade market that would allow private airlines to operate freely across all member states.

A massive national carrier carrier across all states only looks good until you realise it would be run by the same types of cronies that failed to run Kenya Airways, Air Tanzania, South African Airways, Uganda Airlines, East African Airways and so on. It would be like an African Alitalia or Sabena.
 
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eastafspot
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Re: East African Federation's national airline

Sat May 02, 2020 11:27 am

VSMUT wrote:
A massive national carrier carrier across all states only looks good until you realise it would be run by the same types of cronies that failed to run Kenya Airways, Air Tanzania, South African Airways, Uganda Airlines, East African Airways and so on. It would be like an African Alitalia or Sabena.


Everybody already knows your point of view about (East only?) African politicians... :wink2:

That being said, there far more challenges running an airline in this region/continent than elsewhere!
Fly with Air Burundi, Air Tanzania, Golden Wings Aviation, Kenya Airways, RwandAir and Uganda Airlines...Jumuiya ya Afrika mashariki !

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