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aviationlover7
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TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 02, 2020 9:46 am

Hi,

It seems like the Portuguese Government is not happy with David Neeleman's proposal to get bank loans with Gov. guarantees. Is nationalization the only option left?

Source (only in Portuguese):
https://expresso.pt/economia/2020-05-01 ... para-a-TAP
 
Cointrin330
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 02, 2020 11:27 am

Or liquidation. TAP benefited from Portugal's popularity as a destination in its own right and as a stop over and transit point. Non absolutely essential travel, for 2020 at least, is dead. Portugal isn't a massive business destination. I just don't see TP survive without full nationalization down the road.
 
airbazar
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 02, 2020 12:50 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
Or liquidation. TAP benefited from Portugal's popularity as a destination in its own right and as a stop over and transit point. Non absolutely essential travel, for 2020 at least, is dead. Portugal isn't a massive business destination. I just don't see TP survive without full nationalization down the road.

Yes all true because the Internet says so and also, the world is ending as we know it and we'll all be replaced by 3-headed aliens.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 02, 2020 1:07 pm

airbazar wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Or liquidation. TAP benefited from Portugal's popularity as a destination in its own right and as a stop over and transit point. Non absolutely essential travel, for 2020 at least, is dead. Portugal isn't a massive business destination. I just don't see TP survive without full nationalization down the road.

Yes all true because the Internet says so and also, the world is ending as we know it and we'll all be replaced by 3-headed aliens.


Agreed. Lol
 
RvA
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 02, 2020 1:43 pm

airbazar wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Or liquidation. TAP benefited from Portugal's popularity as a destination in its own right and as a stop over and transit point. Non absolutely essential travel, for 2020 at least, is dead. Portugal isn't a massive business destination. I just don't see TP survive without full nationalization down the road.

Yes all true because the Internet says so and also, the world is ending as we know it and we'll all be replaced by 3-headed aliens.


You forgot to add that those aliens will exclusively be flying Ryanair.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 02, 2020 1:45 pm

airbazar wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Or liquidation. TAP benefited from Portugal's popularity as a destination in its own right and as a stop over and transit point. Non absolutely essential travel, for 2020 at least, is dead. Portugal isn't a massive business destination. I just don't see TP survive without full nationalization down the road.

Yes all true because the Internet says so and also, the world is ending as we know it and we'll all be replaced by 3-headed aliens.


Do you want to offer traffic estimates and a viable business plan instead of sarcasm?
 
SCQ83
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Mon May 04, 2020 9:55 pm

TAP has relaunched some routes:

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-30apr20/

Routes that are not restarting are immediately are:

From LIS: Alicante, Banjul, Boa Vista, Bologna, Budapest, Caracas, Chicago, Fes, Florence, London Gatwick, Moscow, Nantes, Naples, New York JFK, Porto Alegre, San Francisco, Tangier, Washington.

From OPO: Amsterdam, Brussels, Geneva, Luxembourg, Madrid, Milan, Munich, Newark, Ponta Delgada, Rio de Janeiro, Sal, São Paulo, Zürich

From LIS, in addition to the US and some countries that might be still totally or partially closed (Russia, Cabo Verde, Venezuela), could the other ones be underperforming routes and prime candidates to be chopped?: Alicante, Banjul, Bologna, Budapest, Fes, Florence, LGW, Nantes, Naples, Porto Alegre, Tangiers.

From OPO they only keep LON, PAR, LIS and Madeira. Will TAP close their mini hub at OPO? The only reason for OPO as a second TAP hub was LIS being full. Now that is not a problem anymore.
 
Blerg
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 4:52 am

One good thing for TP is that LIS will not be as congested as before. They could use this opportunity to take some good slots they could use in the future. I am sure Lisbon won't be among the first destinations where airlines will flock, especially not with tourism on hold for the time being.
 
airbazar
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 12:56 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Do you want to offer traffic estimates and a viable business plan instead of sarcasm?

Nope, not wasting my time with trolls.

Blerg wrote:
One good thing for TP is that LIS will not be as congested as before. They could use this opportunity to take some good slots they could use in the future. I am sure Lisbon won't be among the first destinations where airlines will flock, especially not with tourism on hold for the time being.

They are currently expanding and modernizing the airport so if anything now would be the time to try and make the most progress on that project.
And while I suspect that cross-border travel will be a coordinated effort across the EU, I think Portugal will be seen as one of the safest places to visit in southern Europe given that they handled and continue to handle this Pandemic better than just about anyone in the region, and their visitor numbers should rebound fairly quickly.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 1:55 pm

This is where TAP got caught in a bad spot renewing its fleet now, although it was needed. The A21N might end up being a workhorse to Africa (besides Maputo) and North America (besides Miami). The A321XLR could potentially make Maputo.
 
airhansa
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 2:03 pm

East Asians are generally disappointed with the response by western countries to the pandemic and their perception of western healthcare standards has been tarnished, and sadly one of the main views circulating is that the poorly funded healthcare systems of Southern Europe are less safe - so a toxic mix of "lower western standards" and "poor healthcare infrastructure" isn't going to help Portugal from an eastern perspective.

Furthermore, the bulk of economic growth in 2020 and 2021 will be in Asia, not the West, especially considering China and especially India are expected to grow.
 
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vhtje
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 2:12 pm

airhansa wrote:
East Asians are generally disappointed with the response by western countries to the pandemic and their perception of western healthcare standards has been tarnished, and sadly one of the main views circulating is that the poorly funded healthcare systems of Southern Europe are less safe - so a toxic mix of "lower western standards" and "poor healthcare infrastructure" isn't going to help Portugal from an eastern perspective.

Furthermore, the bulk of economic growth in 2020 and 2021 will be in Asia, not the West, especially considering China and especially India are expected to grow.


What does it have to do with TAP? TAP don't fly to Asia.
I only turn left when boarding aircraft. Well, mostly. All right, sometimes. OH OKAY - rarely.
 
asuflyer
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 2:20 pm

airhansa wrote:
East Asians are generally disappointed with the response by western countries to the pandemic and their perception of western healthcare standards has been tarnished, and sadly one of the main views circulating is that the poorly funded healthcare systems of Southern Europe are less safe - so a toxic mix of "lower western standards" and "poor healthcare infrastructure" isn't going to help Portugal from an eastern perspective.

Furthermore, the bulk of economic growth in 2020 and 2021 will be in Asia, not the West, especially considering China and especially India are expected to grow.


Capital Airlines flew from PEK to LIS. It didn't last very long. Portugal does not see tourism from China on the likes of Italy or France, although it was increasing slightly so it is not really relevant here. The main increase in tourism came from the US, Canada, Brazil and Spain.

TAP is really in a hole here. Their turnaround plan continued to lose money.
 
goosebayguy
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 4:37 pm

I visited TLS last summer and was really surprised by the large number of aircraft in TP colours. I then looked up what they had ordered and was again surprised. My thoughts were how can they possibly be buying all these A330's? Portugal has a very small economy so even the Government would struggle to keep TP supported.
 
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airportugal310
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 4:54 pm

airbazar wrote:
They are currently expanding and modernizing the airport so if anything now would be the time to try and make the most progress on that project.
And while I suspect that cross-border travel will be a coordinated effort across the EU, I think Portugal will be seen as one of the safest places to visit in southern Europe given that they handled and continue to handle this Pandemic better than just about anyone in the region, and their visitor numbers should rebound fairly quickly.


I'd probably have to agree...Portugal largely stayed out of the news in this regard, unlike their neighbors on the peninsula, so it could bode well. Could, being the operative word of course...
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
santos
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 4:58 pm

asuflyer wrote:
airhansa wrote:
East Asians are generally disappointed with the response by western countries to the pandemic and their perception of western healthcare standards has been tarnished, and sadly one of the main views circulating is that the poorly funded healthcare systems of Southern Europe are less safe - so a toxic mix of "lower western standards" and "poor healthcare infrastructure" isn't going to help Portugal from an eastern perspective.

Furthermore, the bulk of economic growth in 2020 and 2021 will be in Asia, not the West, especially considering China and especially India are expected to grow.


Capital Airlines flew from PEK to LIS. It didn't last very long. Portugal does not see tourism from China on the likes of Italy or France, although it was increasing slightly so it is not really relevant here. The main increase in tourism came from the US, Canada, Brazil and Spain.

TAP is really in a hole here. Their turnaround plan continued to lose money.


Loads on PEK flight were 90%+ ,as for yields I don’t have any info on that! It operated for a full year via Xian.
It came back seasonal and even operated a few flights this year.
Route is on sale again from 22nd May 2020.
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... perations/
 
SCQ83
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 5:32 pm

asuflyer wrote:
Capital Airlines flew from PEK to LIS. It didn't last very long. Portugal does not see tourism from China on the likes of Italy or France, although it was increasing slightly so it is not really relevant here. The main increase in tourism came from the US, Canada, Brazil and Spain.


It is the other way around. Portugal tried very actively to capitalise and attract Chinese tourism, residents and investors, with programs like the Golden Visa. Hence why those flights between PEK and LIS.
 
airbazar
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 5:40 pm

airhansa wrote:
East Asians are generally disappointed with the response by western countries to the pandemic and their perception of western healthcare standards has been tarnished, and sadly one of the main views circulating is that the poorly funded healthcare systems of Southern Europe are less safe - so a toxic mix of "lower western standards" and "poor healthcare infrastructure" isn't going to help Portugal from an eastern perspective.


Interesting comments considering where this originated, and where previous SARS and MERS outbreaks have originated. They can have all the perception they want but at the end of the day I know where I want to to be when the proverbial s* hits the fan and I can tell you with 100% certainty, it is not in East Asia.

asuflyer wrote:
Capital Airlines flew from PEK to LIS. It didn't last very long. Portugal does not see tourism from China on the likes of Italy or France, although it was increasing slightly so it is not really relevant here. The main increase in tourism came from the US, Canada, Brazil and Spain.

TAP is really in a hole here. Their turnaround plan continued to lose money.


Lots of inaccuracies in this post so let me try to address them.

EVERY airline is in a hole. That shouldn't be news. Lufthansa, just to name 1 example needs a 10 billion rescue from the government and may actually file for some sort bankruptcy protection.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN22A0IU

Capital Airlines suspended their flight between October 2018 and August 2019. AFAIK they still intend to resume the flight this year.
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... es-in-s20/

As for tourists, Portugal is a very small country so obviously you can't compare absolute number of visitors with the likes of France or Italy. Portugal received 27 million tourists in 2019.
The largest number of visitors came from the UK (19.2%), followed by Germans (5.88%), and then Spaniards (5.22%).
The largest growth came from: Americans (29,2%), Canadians (27,6%), and Irish (26%).
https://eco.sapo.pt/2020/02/14/portugal ... s-em-2019/
Not referenced in that article is the fact that Portugal had over 380,000 Chinese visitors in 2019, a ~16% increase from 2018. Not a huge number but not insignificant either especially when Chinese visitors spend 3x more than the average European visitor. Americans are the second largest spenders.

SCQ83 wrote:
It is the other way around. Portugal tried very actively to capitalise and attract Chinese tourism, residents and investors, with programs like the Golden Visa. Hence why those flights between PEK and LIS.

It's highly unlikely that those people (residents and investors), use that flight. That flight is predominantly used by tourists on all-inclusive bucket tours, usually in combination with a visit to Spain.
 
airhansa
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Wed May 06, 2020 3:13 pm

The meaning behind the comments was that Asian tourists, who will likely be less economically affected in comparison to Western tourists, are going to be more distrusting of western healthcare systems and hence more likely to stay within their regions post-pandemic. You also overlook that the histories of SARS and MERS mean that Asians are less likely to be worried about leaving the house after the pandemic subsides.
 
abrelosojos
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Wed May 06, 2020 5:11 pm

I actually am finding TAP to be among the most mature and dynamic in handling the crisis along with potentially Emirates and SQ. Instead of flying to politically high profile places like Brasil and Angola, they immediately suspended their operations aligned with government rules, and likely balance sheet. I never thought I'd see a day where TP would stop Brasil, while LH/AF continued!

If you follow their pricing policies close in, they are clearly testing markets, and having no issues walking away from things that don't make sense. I am also finding their pricing higher on several core routes than competitors which reflect that they clearly do not believe consumers are buying air tickets and finding discounting pointless.

They have a very good management, so besides the usual left wing rhetoric we see in Portugal, I am sure TAP may actually be one of the winners here. The 321-LR is arguably the right aircraft to begin operations, especially to North America, North East Brasil, and Africa. No other airline can achieve that without exposing high gauge widebody fleet.

Saludos,
Alex
Live, and let live.
 
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Embajador3
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Wed May 06, 2020 5:43 pm

airhansa wrote:
The meaning behind the comments was that Asian tourists, who will likely be less economically affected in comparison to Western tourists, are going to be more distrusting of western healthcare systems and hence more likely to stay within their regions post-pandemic.

[twoid][/twoid]
Is this backed up by a reputable study or did you just make it up yourself? IMHO those are very unfortunate comments based on prejudice, not the truth.

Back on topic, I think TAP will need to downsize a lot (like all existing airlines) and cut a lot of routes.
Flying Together
 
continental004
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Wed May 06, 2020 5:50 pm

I was in LIS in December 2018 and I saw a LOT of Asian tourists - more than the previous two times I went there in 2016.
 
airbazar
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Wed May 06, 2020 7:11 pm

airhansa wrote:
The meaning behind the comments was that Asian tourists, who will likely be less economically affected in comparison to Western tourists, are going to be more distrusting of western healthcare systems and hence more likely to stay within their regions post-pandemic. You also overlook that the histories of SARS and MERS mean that Asians are less likely to be worried about leaving the house after the pandemic subsides.

That is true for just about everyone. Coming out of this Pandemic most people will chose to take vacations closer to home, where they feel more comfortable. That is true whether you are Asian, European, or American.
You are right to a point, that SARS and MERS prepared some of these countries for this pandemic. There is no arguing that South Korea in particular was very well prepared. But being less prepared for a once in a century Pandemic in no way represents the quality of a health care system. When the Saudi royal family 747SP stops coming to Boston and starts going to China or Seoul, then you might have a point :)
 
Tdan
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 07, 2020 11:41 am

abrelosojos wrote:
I actually am finding TAP to be among the most mature and dynamic in handling the crisis along with potentially Emirates and SQ. Instead of flying to politically high profile places like Brasil and Angola, they immediately suspended their operations aligned with government rules, and likely balance sheet. I never thought I'd see a day where TP would stop Brasil, while LH/AF continued!

If you follow their pricing policies close in, they are clearly testing markets, and having no issues walking away from things that don't make sense. I am also finding their pricing higher on several core routes than competitors which reflect that they clearly do not believe consumers are buying air tickets and finding discounting pointless.

They have a very good management, so besides the usual left wing rhetoric we see in Portugal, I am sure TAP may actually be one of the winners here. The 321-LR is arguably the right aircraft to begin operations, especially to North America, North East Brasil, and Africa. No other airline can achieve that without exposing high gauge widebody fleet.

Saludos,
Alex


Their issue is not tactical in nature, but rather timing and broader strategy. The cash cost of the fleet rollover is at its most critical period when utilization should be ~17h on the A330NEOs. Add to that the mixed funding mechanisms required to roll the fleet in such a short period of time and you have an airline that has no choice but to fly. The pricing and tactics you describe make a difference at the margin but do not materially impact the current cash burn rate.

Not sure I see how TAP survives without nationalization or significant reinvestment without a Summer season. They needed to print cash more than anything this summer and will not have that opportunity. Portugal is in a tough spot to come up with the funds and I’m not sure Neeleman is as engaged as before with Breeze sitting on a golden opportunity in the states.
We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
 
airbazar
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 07, 2020 12:08 pm

Tdan wrote:
Not sure I see how TAP survives without nationalization or significant reinvestment without a Summer season. They needed to print cash more than anything this summer and will not have that opportunity. Portugal is in a tough spot to come up with the funds and I’m not sure Neeleman is as engaged as before with Breeze sitting on a golden opportunity in the states.

Right now nationalization appears to be off the table. From what I gather there's little appetite in Portugal to nationalize the airline. All indicators point to a rescue plan by the government like all other governments are doing for their home airlines. I suspect the delay has more to do with regional politics than actual financial factor as in Portugal every time there is a discussion around TAP, the Porto vs. Lisbon politics tend to drag things longer than necessary.

And on the topic of foreign visitors to Portugal, this article in Forbes shows that the country is well ahead of anyone else in the region when it comes to opening up for tourism. Whether the tourists will come or not is a different story.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/annabel/20 ... 18a3542bb2
 
SCQ83
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 07, 2020 12:30 pm

Tdan wrote:
Not sure I see how TAP survives without nationalization or significant reinvestment without a Summer season. They needed to print cash more than anything this summer and will not have that opportunity. Portugal is in a tough spot to come up with the funds and I’m not sure Neeleman is as engaged as before with Breeze sitting on a golden opportunity in the states.


They lost money in 2019 where everybody else was in positive numbers.

viewtopic.php?t=1431749

I see a government rescue as problematic with the current TAP and Portugal within the EU. TAP is a huge carrier for a small country like Portugal; more akin to Emirates or KLM than to Lufthansa or Iberia.

Germany has to rescue Lufthansa. Portugal has to rescue TAP. The problem with Portugal rescuing somebody is that that money ultimately comes from the EU (aka Germany). Will Germany allow Portugal to rescue TAP so TAP can keep undercutting Lufthansa's fares?

Not saying that TAP will disappear, but they might obligate them to return to a more "ratiional" size. And not the current TAP that was to have 5 daily New York flights this summer.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 07, 2020 1:11 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Tdan wrote:
Not sure I see how TAP survives without nationalization or significant reinvestment without a Summer season. They needed to print cash more than anything this summer and will not have that opportunity. Portugal is in a tough spot to come up with the funds and I’m not sure Neeleman is as engaged as before with Breeze sitting on a golden opportunity in the states.


They lost money in 2019 where everybody else was in positive numbers.

viewtopic.php?t=1431749

I see a government rescue as problematic with the current TAP and Portugal within the EU. TAP is a huge carrier for a small country like Portugal; more akin to Emirates or KLM than to Lufthansa or Iberia.

Germany has to rescue Lufthansa. Portugal has to rescue TAP. The problem with Portugal rescuing somebody is that that money ultimately comes from the EU (aka Germany). Will Germany allow Portugal to rescue TAP so TAP can keep undercutting Lufthansa's fares?

Not saying that TAP will disappear, but they might obligate them to return to a more "ratiional" size. And not the current TAP that was to have 5 daily New York flights this summer.


5 daily flights to New York? I know it was EWR (2x LIS, 1x OPO), and JFK-LIS (OPO A21N, everything else A339), but where was the 5th frequency? At least they got some sense and are down-sizing to just 1 daily (from July) A21N, but they now have way too many wide-bodies (19 A339s and 7 A332s)...and not enough long-haul configured A21Ns (although theoretically, some of the Europe-configured Cabin Flex frames could be reconfigured internationally).
 
airbazar
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 07, 2020 2:22 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Germany has to rescue Lufthansa. Portugal has to rescue TAP. The problem with Portugal rescuing somebody is that that money ultimately comes from the EU (aka Germany). Will Germany allow Portugal to rescue TAP so TAP can keep undercutting Lufthansa's fares?

Not saying that TAP will disappear, but they might obligate them to return to a more "ratiional" size. And not the current TAP that was to have 5 daily New York flights this summer.


That's a pretty ignorant statement.
For starters Portugal buys far more from Germany than Germany buys from Portugal. That shiny new Airbus fleet didn't come cheap.
In 2018 the EU (not Germany) spent 5 billion Euros in Portugal, or the equivalent of 2.55% of GDP.
By contrast travel and tourism accounted for 19.1% of GDP in 2018.
The Netherlands was/is the largest per capita contributor to the EU budget (not Germany). So I suppose, according to your thought process the Dutch should deny Germany's rescue to Lufthansa :lol:
It's not that black and white. That's the whole point of a Union. It goes both ways.
As for the 5 daily flights to NYC, it's just as absurd as the LH group's 5 daily flights they were planning to BOS for this Summer. Personally I don't think either is absurd if the market exists.
 
SCQ83
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 07, 2020 4:58 pm

Of course, you are right, as usual. Portugal has the same bargain power as Germany in the EU. What else. And pigs fly.

The issue with Portugal (compared to Italy, France, Spain or Greece which are the usual suspects), is that TAP Portugal is the only national carrier that does not match the size of the country it serves (compared to Alitalia, Air France, Iberia, Aegean), as TAP has gone into wild connectivity Turkish/Emirates-style. So it becomes more problematic that Portugal (via EU money) bails out a carrier that does not only serve its country (Portugal) but that does some highly questionable practices - bombing prices while losing money to gain market share -that compete with their "core" carriers (read Lufthansa Group, KLM) that are also now in need of money.

Another additional point is that Portugal is a very tiny country with little to bargain. Not that Italy or Spain are very well regarded in the EU (Germany), but a Greek solution to Spain/Italy would be the termination of the EU. Portugal is just the same population/GDP/size as Greece...
 
danipawa
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 14, 2020 8:02 pm

Airbus A320 -214 2178 CS-TNP TAP Air Portugal for return to lessor mid-jun20, parked at FAO (+ A321‑211 1713 CS-TJG in late-jun20, parked at LIS) ex 9H-AER

https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb.main?LC=nav4
 
airbazar
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 15, 2020 11:50 am

SCQ83 wrote:
The issue with Portugal (compared to Italy, France, Spain or Greece which are the usual suspects), is that TAP Portugal is the only national carrier that does not match the size of the country it serves (compared to Alitalia, Air France, Iberia, Aegean), as TAP has gone into wild connectivity Turkish/Emirates-style.

Ironic comment. Does EK match the size of the country it serves? It's exactly because Portugal is a small country that any airline based there needs to tap into connecting markets. There's nothing wrog with that and you see it all over the place: EK, SQ, QR, EY, ET, etc...

Another additional point is that Portugal is a very tiny country with little to bargain. Not that Italy or Spain are very well regarded in the EU (Germany), but a Greek solution to Spain/Italy would be the termination of the EU. Portugal is just the same population/GDP/size as Greece...

I think NATO would disagree with you in regards to bargaining leverage.
What would you rather have in the Azores? A U.S. base or a Chinese base?
This is not hypothetical. It's real.
https://observador.pt/2016/10/12/costa- ... das-lajes/
 
TYCOON
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 15, 2020 12:23 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Of course, you are right, as usual. Portugal has the same bargain power as Germany in the EU. What else. And pigs fly.

The issue with Portugal (compared to Italy, France, Spain or Greece which are the usual suspects), is that TAP Portugal is the only national carrier that does not match the size of the country it serves (compared to Alitalia, Air France, Iberia, Aegean), as TAP has gone into wild connectivity Turkish/Emirates-style. So it becomes more problematic that Portugal (via EU money) bails out a carrier that does not only serve its country (Portugal) but that does some highly questionable practices - bombing prices while losing money to gain market share -that compete with their "core" carriers (read Lufthansa Group, KLM) that are also now in need of money.

Another additional point is that Portugal is a very tiny country with little to bargain. Not that Italy or Spain are very well regarded in the EU (Germany), but a Greek solution to Spain/Italy would be the termination of the EU. Portugal is just the same population/GDP/size as Greece...


And let's not forget KLM... an airline that also "does not match the size..." for whatever that's worth...
 
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mercure1
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 21, 2020 6:07 pm

TAP says that it could lose up to 1,700 workers and more than 30 planes, reducing its fleet by 25% as part of restructuring.
mercure f-wtcc
 
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AECM
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 21, 2020 6:21 pm

If possible i think the reduction of the fleet will be made by accelerating the retirement of the older aircraft, TAP currently has 17 x A319 with an average age of 20,5 years and 10 x A320CEO that are between 16 and 21 years old. Also the 4 x EMB195 were also planned to leave, the 8 x AT72 will probably shrink and the remaining 7 x A332 with the operating cost of the A339 being similar can also be a possibility.
 
factsonly
Posts: 2867
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:08 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 21, 2020 7:55 pm

TYCOON wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:

The issue with Portugal (compared to Italy, France, Spain or Greece which are the usual suspects), is that TAP Portugal is the only national carrier that does not match the size of the country it serves (compared to Alitalia, Air France, Iberia, Aegean), as TAP has gone into wild connectivity Turkish/Emirates-style.



And let's not forget KLM... an airline that also "does not match the size..." for whatever that's worth...


An often repeated mistake is to look at the geographic size of a country, when it is the size of a nation's economy that determines airline size.

Global GDP RANKING:
1. USA, 2. China, 3. Japan, 4. Germany, 5. India, 6. UK, 7. France, 8. Italy, 9. Brazil, 10. Canada, 11. Russia, 12. South Korea, 13. Spain, 14. Australia, 15. Mexico, 16. Indonesia.

17. Netherlands
Netherlands Nominal GDP: $902.36 billion - Netherlands GDP (PPP): $969.23 billion
The Netherlands, the sixth largest economy in the European Union, is the 17th-largest economy in the world. Back in 1980, the Netherlands was the 12th-largest economy globally, with a GDP of $189.49 billion. Today, the country has a nominal GDP of $912.90 billion and a GDP-PPP of $969.23 billion.

The Netherlands ranks 13th on the basis of per capita income, with a GDP per capita of $53,106.38.

https://www.investopedia.com/insights/w ... economies/
 
AF022
Posts: 1854
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 10:41 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 21, 2020 8:01 pm

mercure1 wrote:
TAP says that it could lose up to 1,700 workers and more than 30 planes, reducing its fleet by 25% as part of restructuring.


What routes are most likely to be abandoned? Are they talking about giving up wide-body, narrow-body, or both?
 
airbazar
Posts: 10043
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 21, 2020 8:54 pm

AF022 wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
TAP says that it could lose up to 1,700 workers and more than 30 planes, reducing its fleet by 25% as part of restructuring.


What routes are most likely to be abandoned? Are they talking about giving up wide-body, narrow-body, or both?

No idea what routes will be given up. A 25% reduction in aircraft could also translate into fewer frequencies.
The following article states 8 long haul and 23 short haul aircraft which is in line with the suggestion that was made above by 'AECM' that they will just retire the oldest planes in the fleet.
https://rr.sapo.pt/2020/05/20/economia/ ... ia/193513/

factsonly wrote:
An often repeated mistake is to look at the geographic size of a country, when it is the size of a nation's economy that determines airline size.

In my opinion it's neither although having both a large economy and a large population should in theory help but not always. Case in point: Italy, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India, etc, etc, etc. Heck even France. When was the last time AF (without KL), turned a profit?
At the end of the day a company will succeed if it's well managed and fail if it's poorly managed. In this particular sector an airline from a small country can succeed. KLM is a good example: The majority of KLM fliers are not Dutch. Likewise, the majority of TAP's fliers are not Portuguese. ET is another good example. It's a well run and profitable airline, about the same size as TAP but based in a country where the per capita GDP is barely $1,000.
If an airline is well managed and it has a well managed supporting infrastructure, it doesn't matter where its hub is located (economically).
In the case of TAP, that doesn't happen. I think the airline is decently managed now but they are handicapped by decades of poor management and government interference, and the complete lack of anything resembling a modern and efficient hub from which to operate. It's impossible for it to even turn a profit when it constantly has to pay out penalties for delayed or cancelled flights, lost luggage, or when its labor goes on strike every year.
If the country were to fix the airport situation and the government stop pandering to labor every election year, TAP might have a chance.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5642
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 6:35 am

AF022 wrote:
What routes are most likely to be abandoned? Are they talking about giving up wide-body, narrow-body, or both?


Given how disproportionally big TAP is for a country like Portugal, I think it is easy to achieve that:

1) The OPO hub. TAP was building OPO as a second hub with some connectivity and +15 routes. For instance they were able to sell MAD-OPO-EWR with reasonable times. It is worth noting that now that flights have resumed for TAP, they have resumed most routes out of LIS and only 2 international routes out of OPO (Paris and London), plus LIS and islands. OPO was an anomaly, when you see the likes of British Airways, Iberia or Air France (in much bigger countries) not bothering with a second international hub.

2) Thin routes. Last year already TAP cut a few recent routes (CGN, BSL, FEZ, OTP, LFW, etc). Some of those routes like Fez or Lomé were what I have called before pure Turkish/Emirates style (what is the local market between Lisbon and Fes/Lomé?).

3) Over-served routes. I have mentioned previously the case of New York. TAP was to fly this summer 4 or 5 NYC flights. It should be easy to cut frequencies here and there.
 
continental004
Posts: 418
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:53 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 6:51 am

SCQ83 wrote:
AF022 wrote:
What routes are most likely to be abandoned? Are they talking about giving up wide-body, narrow-body, or both?


Given how disproportionally big TAP is for a country like Portugal, I think it is easy to achieve that:

1) The OPO hub. TAP was building OPO as a second hub with some connectivity and +15 routes. For instance they were able to sell MAD-OPO-EWR with reasonable times. It is worth noting that now that flights have resumed for TAP, they have resumed most routes out of LIS and only 2 international routes out of OPO (Paris and London), plus LIS and islands. OPO was an anomaly, when you see the likes of British Airways, Iberia or Air France (in much bigger countries) not bothering with a second international hub.

2) Thin routes. Last year already TAP cut a few recent routes (CGN, BSL, FEZ, OTP, LFW, etc). Some of those routes like Fez or Lomé were what I have called before pure Turkish/Emirates style (what is the local market between Lisbon and Fes/Lomé?).

3) Over-served routes. I have mentioned previously the case of New York. TAP was to fly this summer 4 or 5 NYC flights. It should be easy to cut frequencies here and there.


The OPO hub only got as big as it did because LIS is too small and congested for expansion in pre-Covid times.

LGW served as an secondary international hub for BA with a number of long haul routes.
 
jmmadrid
Posts: 343
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:00 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 6:53 am

SCQ83 wrote:
AF022 wrote:
What routes are most likely to be abandoned? Are they talking about giving up wide-body, narrow-body, or both?


Given how disproportionally big TAP is for a country like Portugal, I think it is easy to achieve that:

1) The OPO hub. TAP was building OPO as a second hub with some connectivity and +15 routes. For instance they were able to sell MAD-OPO-EWR with reasonable times. It is worth noting that now that flights have resumed for TAP, they have resumed most routes out of LIS and only 2 international routes out of OPO (Paris and London), plus LIS and islands. OPO was an anomaly, when you see the likes of British Airways, Iberia or Air France (in much bigger countries) not bothering with a second international hub.

2) Thin routes. Last year already TAP cut a few recent routes (CGN, BSL, FEZ, OTP, LFW, etc). Some of those routes like Fez or Lomé were what I have called before pure Turkish/Emirates style (what is the local market between Lisbon and Fes/Lomé?).

3) Over-served routes. I have mentioned previously the case of New York. TAP was to fly this summer 4 or 5 NYC flights. It should be easy to cut frequencies here and there.


In addition, TAP were always the cheapest option in those "connecting" routes they offered. It was easy to find good deals even a few days before the flight. Maybe it's a good time to focus on yields?
 
ehusmann
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2005 12:19 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 6:59 am

SCQ83 wrote:
Given how disproportionally big TAP is for a country like Portugal, I think it is easy to achieve that:


Add to that:
4) Brazil... the way that country is handling the COVID crisis, it will take a long time to recover. And with that being one of the most important markets for TAP, it will take a big hit. That could easily account for all the A332 flights that need to be scrapped.
 
abrelosojos
Posts: 4300
Joined: Sun May 29, 2005 6:48 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 7:35 am

I have said this over before, TAP has very good management, and it takes a while to turn 72 years of government run into profits in 3 years. However, like Portugal, I think TAP is vastly underrated. Kinda like how Portugal handled COVID versus Spain. Read up on the last few years of general political and economic management, and you will see what I mean about Portuguese political and economic performance versus Spain.

Antonoldo Neves (their CEO) is very good, and learnt from being a CEO at Azul. David Neeleman is anything but stupid. Their network and revenue over past 6 months has been lead by Arik De who is also very good. I have met all 3 of them personally, and if anyone can pull them out, it is them.

They are already doing all the stuff needed. From their winter planning, seems like OPO has been downsized. I am surprised they were able to pull it off politically. Connections have been tightened, and one of the smartest things I have seen is using the 321-LR on routes. For example, in NYC, I see all of their 339's being replaced by double daily EWR on a 321 LR, plus another to JFK, with some peak 339 flights. In Brasil, they seem to have cut down heavily.

Don't count them out. If anything, I am betting Air Europa is gone, especially if IAG decides not to go ahead with another Spanish conquest.

Saludos,
Alex
Live, and let live.
 
User avatar
fidelidade
Posts: 59
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:15 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 7:49 am

airbazar wrote:
AF022 wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
TAP says that it could lose up to 1,700 workers and more than 30 planes, reducing its fleet by 25% as part of restructuring.


What routes are most likely to be abandoned? Are they talking about giving up wide-body, narrow-body, or both?

No idea what routes will be given up. A 25% reduction in aircraft could also translate into fewer frequencies.
The following article states 8 long haul and 23 short haul aircraft which is in line with the suggestion that was made above by 'AECM' that they will just retire the oldest planes in the fleet.
https://rr.sapo.pt/2020/05/20/economia/ ... ia/193513/

factsonly wrote:
An often repeated mistake is to look at the geographic size of a country, when it is the size of a nation's economy that determines airline size.

In my opinion it's neither although having both a large economy and a large population should in theory help but not always. Case in point: Italy, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India, etc, etc, etc. Heck even France. When was the last time AF (without KL), turned a profit?
At the end of the day a company will succeed if it's well managed and fail if it's poorly managed. In this particular sector an airline from a small country can succeed. KLM is a good example: The majority of KLM fliers are not Dutch. Likewise, the majority of TAP's fliers are not Portuguese. ET is another good example. It's a well run and profitable airline, about the same size as TAP but based in a country where the per capita GDP is barely $1,000.
If an airline is well managed and it has a well managed supporting infrastructure, it doesn't matter where its hub is located (economically).
In the case of TAP, that doesn't happen. I think the airline is decently managed now but they are handicapped by decades of poor management and government interference, and the complete lack of anything resembling a modern and efficient hub from which to operate. It's impossible for it to even turn a profit when it constantly has to pay out penalties for delayed or cancelled flights, lost luggage, or when its labor goes on strike every year.
If the country were to fix the airport situation and the government stop pandering to labor every election year, TAP might have a chance.


abrelosojos wrote:
I have said this over before, TAP has very good management, and it takes a while to turn 72 years of government run into profits in 3 years. However, like Portugal, I think TAP is vastly underrated. Kinda like how Portugal handled COVID versus Spain. Read up on the last few years of general political and economic management, and you will see what I mean about Portuguese political and economic performance versus Spain.

Antonoldo Neves (their CEO) is very good, and learnt from being a CEO at Azul. David Neeleman is anything but stupid. Their network and revenue over past 6 months has been lead by Arik De who is also very good. I have met all 3 of them personally, and if anyone can pull them out, it is them.

They are already doing all the stuff needed. From their winter planning, seems like OPO has been downsized. I am surprised they were able to pull it off politically. Connections have been tightened, and one of the smartest things I have seen is using the 321-LR on routes. For example, in NYC, I see all of their 339's being replaced by double daily EWR on a 321 LR, plus another to JFK, with some peak 339 flights. In Brasil, they seem to have cut down heavily.

Don't count them out. If anything, I am betting Air Europa is gone, especially if IAG decides not to go ahead with another Spanish conquest.

Saludos,
Alex


These statements are so true. I have so much respect for TAP and their management. It is like the airline that over past few years have been able to slowly move away from the old mentality. I am actually really impressed that they have stood by with their decisions to downsize Oporto. It is not easy in Portugal.

Look at these. Only in Portuguese.

https://www.ojogo.pt/extra/noticias/ant ... 65965.html

https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-05-04 ... s-publicos

https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/empresa ... ltuosa-tap
 
IrishLessor
Posts: 40
Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:44 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 8:11 am

Abrelosojos,
IAG is committed to Air Europa deal, it is just not clear what the final deal looks like.

Reading this whole thread I found it fascinating that comments said things like basically TAP is a gonner, new expensive fleet etc. Hindsight is an exact science.

The steps it has taken were right at the time based on what was known and the trajectory the industry was going on. Like Iberia to my mind, the TAP brand has been transformed and firmly left behind its government owned legacy and associated practices. It is largely irrelevant that TAP is per se larger than it needs to be for a country of Portugal's size, what is relevant is how many people's jobs it supports who pay into the Portuguese economy coffers. Developing the connecting traffic is the only strategic option for TAP, it has firmly established itself as a network carrier. Building the brand and refleeting the airline were also right. Sadly this virus has hit everybody.
If Lufthansa deserves a bailout, then I think TAP deserves a government soft loan.

Lufthansa though another separate topic, is in my opinion a whole other animal. They've bought up a huge number of airlines around Europe, actively tried to keep competition out of Germany e.g. domestic routes and tend to be quite price aggressive, all the while not returning satisfactory margins ( like 2%) ,or something like this in low single digits. The EU as a consequence may need to completely rethink the broader airline piece and at the current deregulation model. Alternatively, we will need a perpetual state aid system, otherwise Ryanair and a few others will have most airlines for lunch...my opinions of course.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5642
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 8:44 am

abrelosojos wrote:
I have said this over before, TAP has very good management, and it takes a while to turn 72 years of government run into profits in 3 years. However, like Portugal, I think TAP is vastly underrated. Kinda like how Portugal handled COVID versus Spain


Completely irrelevant other than some pieces of news. There is no country in Europe that has managed worst the crisis than the UK. And Greece has also managed it very well. It doesn't mean that business or high-end demand is going to move from London to Athens or Lisbon because of that.

Same for tourism. Portugal will likely be worse hit than Spain, France or Italy this summer because 1) their domestic market is very small (and ES, FR and IT are betting on domestic demand), 2) the number of foreigners with second homes (other than Algarve) is smaller and 3) the geographical location of Portugal is much more peripheral to Europe and a lot of people this summer is not willing to take a plane (and driving from Munich or Geneva to the French/Spanish/Italian coasts is more realistic than to Portugal).

abrelosojos wrote:
Read up on the last few years of general political and economic management, and you will see what I mean about Portuguese political and economic performance versus Spain.


There is nothing particularly worth noting about the last few years in Portugal. PT has benefited from:

- A tourism boom like many other countries around the world. A lot of city-break / TATL / AirBNB tourism that now will be the worst hit.
- Very advantageous tax breaks for foreign residents (including Golden Visa for non-EU citizens)
- The largest percentage of native population living abroad in the OECD (other than Mexico) that kept increasing even during the Portuguese boom. Remittances back home that will be reduced with a global crisis.
- A crazy real estate bubble linked to the three points above that now will undoubtedly crash.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5642
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 8:57 am

ehusmann wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
Given how disproportionally big TAP is for a country like Portugal, I think it is easy to achieve that:


Add to that:
4) Brazil... the way that country is handling the COVID crisis, it will take a long time to recover. And with that being one of the most important markets for TAP, it will take a big hit. That could easily account for all the A332 flights that need to be scrapped.


Indeed. That looks like a logical point too.

I imagine this could mean the end of OPO-Brazil services (Azul on VCP-OPO has been already cancelled), maybe some secondary Brazilian destination falling from LIS (wasn't already Curitiba cancelled?; something like Porto Alegre or Maceió) and frequencies to major destinations like GRU and GIG readjusted.
 
Jomar777
Posts: 490
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:45 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 9:04 am

airhansa wrote:
East Asians are generally disappointed with the response by western countries to the pandemic and their perception of western healthcare standards has been tarnished, and sadly one of the main views circulating is that the poorly funded healthcare systems of Southern Europe are less safe - so a toxic mix of "lower western standards" and "poor healthcare infrastructure" isn't going to help Portugal from an eastern perspective.

Furthermore, the bulk of economic growth in 2020 and 2021 will be in Asia, not the West, especially considering China and especially India are expected to grow.


airhansa wrote:
The meaning behind the comments was that Asian tourists, who will likely be less economically affected in comparison to Western tourists, are going to be more distrusting of western healthcare systems and hence more likely to stay within their regions post-pandemic. You also overlook that the histories of SARS and MERS mean that Asians are less likely to be worried about leaving the house after the pandemic subsides.


Both comments are a bit rich coming from you. Firstly, we do not know how long ago COVID19 started neither clearly how it started so we are not able to define clearly the approach China has taken as appropriately or not. Secondly, overall, nobody - WHO included - knows yet whether the actual approach on any country was either necessary or clearly successful. Countries like South Korea managed the control of the spread really well but are now subject to a 2nd wave since they do not have heard immunization whereas Sweden has been somehow praised by passing through all this with no lockdown and economic damage of large scale. I cannot say who was right or wrong so neither does you. The future will tell and, to be honest, Asia its own problems which might or not prevent westerners going there the same way. This means that, for the average tourist - Asian or not - when we clear the pandemic, will be business as usual provided it is safe in regards to criminality, pollution, political stability and infrastructure. Just a very small proportion of tourist worldwide do so for medical reasons. You do not travel to the UK to see their NHS rather than Buckingham Palace and Houses of Parliament for that matter.

Now, back to topic - TAP was a while ago well known for poor services and old aircraft and they were trying to invest heavily to change that. Their A338s were really key for it and the A321XLR allowed them to fly NB where only a WB would reach meaning they could rationalize seat offering. I traveled with them just before the lockdown to GRU from LGW and there service was really good. Their A338 was quite a nice ride. The problem is that COVID hit them in the middle of the process just like any other airline.

They will need to cut services and personnel but look at IAG which publicly declared that did not want Government support: 12,000 job losses at BA and great part (if not all) their B747s will no fly again ever. Everyone got hit and everyone is trying to survive.

I feel TAP will be fine albeit, like many others, a smaller, leaner airliner but one with newer aircraft and better services compared to before.
 
Duartelmatos
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:33 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 10:34 am

The plan must be to retire the 7 A330-200 and keep both the 19 (+2 orders) A330neo’s and all the A321neoLR and respective orders for long haul.
For medium/ short haul, we may see a big part of the A320 CEO family going away, only keeping NEO aircrafts and respective orders. Basically it’s speeding up the retiring process already planned, starting with all the A319s.
In terms of destinations, we should expect the decrease of some frequencies and the cancellation of one or two long haul routes and no more than that, I would say.
Short/medium haul routes may have a stricter cut, from my point of view.
 
User avatar
lugie
Posts: 809
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:11 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 10:46 am

SCQ83 wrote:
abrelosojos wrote:
Read up on the last few years of general political and economic management, and you will see what I mean about Portuguese political and economic performance versus Spain.


There is nothing particularly worth noting about the last few years in Portugal. PT has benefited from:

- A tourism boom like many other countries around the world. A lot of city-break / TATL / AirBNB tourism that now will be the worst hit.
- Very advantageous tax breaks for foreign residents (including Golden Visa for non-EU citizens)
- The largest percentage of native population living abroad in the OECD (other than Mexico) that kept increasing even during the Portuguese boom. Remittances back home that will be reduced with a global crisis.
- A crazy real estate bubble linked to the three points above that now will undoubtedly crash.


I don't think that's what the original post was hinting at.
Ask any economist with some knowledge in the recovery trajectories of Southern European countries after the 2008- Euro crisis and the unanimous response will be that Portugal has handled it best. Greece is still struggling but as you had pointed out above, its small size makes it neglectable and gives the EU more leverage in steering the country.
That doesn't work for Italy and Spain, if the EU pulled a Greece on them, that would be the end of the EU (or at least the end of the Euro zone).
Italy is, economically speaking, a basket case and has been so before the onset of COVID-19.
Spain was doing better than Italy but by far not good enough yet, largely attributed to the extreme variance in willingness to implement either very harsh austerity measures (in PP years) or almost none (PSOE motivated by the success of Podemos).

The only country that seems to have found a solid middle ground of some austerity but not to the destructive degree of entirely gutting the social state was Portugal, and their economy has shown the results at least since around 2015 under the leadership of Antonio Costa.
That is what they stand to lose
Q400 E175 E190 CRJ7 CRJ9 CRJX MD88 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A359 B733 B73G B738 B739 B748 B764 B772 B77W B788 B789
FRA STR HAM TXL MUC ZRH ACE BRU BLL DUB MAN ARN MAD OPO LIS FNC AMS PHL RDU LGA CLT EWR ORD ATL SFO MDW IAD YYZ SJO PTY
 
Duartelmatos
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:33 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 10:51 am

Jomar777 wrote:
airhansa wrote:
East Asians are generally disappointed with the response by western countries to the pandemic and their perception of western healthcare standards has been tarnished, and sadly one of the main views circulating is that the poorly funded healthcare systems of Southern Europe are less safe - so a toxic mix of "lower western standards" and "poor healthcare infrastructure" isn't going to help Portugal from an eastern perspective.

Furthermore, the bulk of economic growth in 2020 and 2021 will be in Asia, not the West, especially considering China and especially India are expected to grow.


airhansa wrote:
The meaning behind the comments was that Asian tourists, who will likely be less economically affected in comparison to Western tourists, are going to be more distrusting of western healthcare systems and hence more likely to stay within their regions post-pandemic. You also overlook that the histories of SARS and MERS mean that Asians are less likely to be worried about leaving the house after the pandemic subsides.


Both comments are a bit rich coming from you. Firstly, we do not know how long ago COVID19 started neither clearly how it started so we are not able to define clearly the approach China has taken as appropriately or not. Secondly, overall, nobody - WHO included - knows yet whether the actual approach on any country was either necessary or clearly successful. Countries like South Korea managed the control of the spread really well but are now subject to a 2nd wave since they do not have heard immunization whereas Sweden has been somehow praised by passing through all this with no lockdown and economic damage of large scale. I cannot say who was right or wrong so neither does you. The future will tell and, to be honest, Asia its own problems which might or not prevent westerners going there the same way. This means that, for the average tourist - Asian or not - when we clear the pandemic, will be business as usual provided it is safe in regards to criminality, pollution, political stability and infrastructure. Just a very small proportion of tourist worldwide do so for medical reasons. You do not travel to the UK to see their NHS rather than Buckingham Palace and Houses of Parliament for that matter.

Now, back to topic - TAP was a while ago well known for poor services and old aircraft and they were trying to invest heavily to change that. Their A338s were really key for it and the A321XLR allowed them to fly NB where only a WB would reach meaning they could rationalize seat offering. I traveled with them just before the lockdown to GRU from LGW and there service was really good. Their A338 was quite a nice ride. The problem is that COVID hit them in the middle of the process just like any other airline.

They will need to cut services and personnel but look at IAG which publicly declared that did not want Government support: 12,000 job losses at BA and great part (if not all) their B747s will no fly again ever. Everyone got hit and everyone is trying to survive.

I feel TAP will be fine albeit, like many others, a smaller, leaner airliner but one with newer aircraft and better services compared to before.



TAP only has A330-900neo. ;)

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