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aviationlover7
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TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 02, 2020 9:46 am

Hi,

It seems like the Portuguese Government is not happy with David Neeleman's proposal to get bank loans with Gov. guarantees. Is nationalization the only option left?

Source (only in Portuguese):
https://expresso.pt/economia/2020-05-01 ... para-a-TAP
 
Cointrin330
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 02, 2020 11:27 am

Or liquidation. TAP benefited from Portugal's popularity as a destination in its own right and as a stop over and transit point. Non absolutely essential travel, for 2020 at least, is dead. Portugal isn't a massive business destination. I just don't see TP survive without full nationalization down the road.
 
SCQ83
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Mon May 04, 2020 9:55 pm

TAP has relaunched some routes:

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-30apr20/

Routes that are not restarting are immediately are:

From LIS: Alicante, Banjul, Boa Vista, Bologna, Budapest, Caracas, Chicago, Fes, Florence, London Gatwick, Moscow, Nantes, Naples, New York JFK, Porto Alegre, San Francisco, Tangier, Washington.

From OPO: Amsterdam, Brussels, Geneva, Luxembourg, Madrid, Milan, Munich, Newark, Ponta Delgada, Rio de Janeiro, Sal, São Paulo, Zürich

From LIS, in addition to the US and some countries that might be still totally or partially closed (Russia, Cabo Verde, Venezuela), could the other ones be underperforming routes and prime candidates to be chopped?: Alicante, Banjul, Bologna, Budapest, Fes, Florence, LGW, Nantes, Naples, Porto Alegre, Tangiers.

From OPO they only keep LON, PAR, LIS and Madeira. Will TAP close their mini hub at OPO? The only reason for OPO as a second TAP hub was LIS being full. Now that is not a problem anymore.
 
Blerg
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 4:52 am

One good thing for TP is that LIS will not be as congested as before. They could use this opportunity to take some good slots they could use in the future. I am sure Lisbon won't be among the first destinations where airlines will flock, especially not with tourism on hold for the time being.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 1:55 pm

This is where TAP got caught in a bad spot renewing its fleet now, although it was needed. The A21N might end up being a workhorse to Africa (besides Maputo) and North America (besides Miami). The A321XLR could potentially make Maputo.
 
goosebayguy
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Tue May 05, 2020 4:37 pm

I visited TLS last summer and was really surprised by the large number of aircraft in TP colours. I then looked up what they had ordered and was again surprised. My thoughts were how can they possibly be buying all these A330's? Portugal has a very small economy so even the Government would struggle to keep TP supported.
 
abrelosojos
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Wed May 06, 2020 5:11 pm

I actually am finding TAP to be among the most mature and dynamic in handling the crisis along with potentially Emirates and SQ. Instead of flying to politically high profile places like Brasil and Angola, they immediately suspended their operations aligned with government rules, and likely balance sheet. I never thought I'd see a day where TP would stop Brasil, while LH/AF continued!

If you follow their pricing policies close in, they are clearly testing markets, and having no issues walking away from things that don't make sense. I am also finding their pricing higher on several core routes than competitors which reflect that they clearly do not believe consumers are buying air tickets and finding discounting pointless.

They have a very good management, so besides the usual left wing rhetoric we see in Portugal, I am sure TAP may actually be one of the winners here. The 321-LR is arguably the right aircraft to begin operations, especially to North America, North East Brasil, and Africa. No other airline can achieve that without exposing high gauge widebody fleet.

Saludos,
Alex
Live, and let live.
 
Tdan
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 07, 2020 11:41 am

abrelosojos wrote:
I actually am finding TAP to be among the most mature and dynamic in handling the crisis along with potentially Emirates and SQ. Instead of flying to politically high profile places like Brasil and Angola, they immediately suspended their operations aligned with government rules, and likely balance sheet. I never thought I'd see a day where TP would stop Brasil, while LH/AF continued!

If you follow their pricing policies close in, they are clearly testing markets, and having no issues walking away from things that don't make sense. I am also finding their pricing higher on several core routes than competitors which reflect that they clearly do not believe consumers are buying air tickets and finding discounting pointless.

They have a very good management, so besides the usual left wing rhetoric we see in Portugal, I am sure TAP may actually be one of the winners here. The 321-LR is arguably the right aircraft to begin operations, especially to North America, North East Brasil, and Africa. No other airline can achieve that without exposing high gauge widebody fleet.

Saludos,
Alex


Their issue is not tactical in nature, but rather timing and broader strategy. The cash cost of the fleet rollover is at its most critical period when utilization should be ~17h on the A330NEOs. Add to that the mixed funding mechanisms required to roll the fleet in such a short period of time and you have an airline that has no choice but to fly. The pricing and tactics you describe make a difference at the margin but do not materially impact the current cash burn rate.

Not sure I see how TAP survives without nationalization or significant reinvestment without a Summer season. They needed to print cash more than anything this summer and will not have that opportunity. Portugal is in a tough spot to come up with the funds and I’m not sure Neeleman is as engaged as before with Breeze sitting on a golden opportunity in the states.
We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
 
airbazar
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 07, 2020 12:08 pm

Tdan wrote:
Not sure I see how TAP survives without nationalization or significant reinvestment without a Summer season. They needed to print cash more than anything this summer and will not have that opportunity. Portugal is in a tough spot to come up with the funds and I’m not sure Neeleman is as engaged as before with Breeze sitting on a golden opportunity in the states.

Right now nationalization appears to be off the table. From what I gather there's little appetite in Portugal to nationalize the airline. All indicators point to a rescue plan by the government like all other governments are doing for their home airlines. I suspect the delay has more to do with regional politics than actual financial factor as in Portugal every time there is a discussion around TAP, the Porto vs. Lisbon politics tend to drag things longer than necessary.

And on the topic of foreign visitors to Portugal, this article in Forbes shows that the country is well ahead of anyone else in the region when it comes to opening up for tourism. Whether the tourists will come or not is a different story.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/annabel/20 ... 18a3542bb2
 
SCQ83
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 07, 2020 12:30 pm

Tdan wrote:
Not sure I see how TAP survives without nationalization or significant reinvestment without a Summer season. They needed to print cash more than anything this summer and will not have that opportunity. Portugal is in a tough spot to come up with the funds and I’m not sure Neeleman is as engaged as before with Breeze sitting on a golden opportunity in the states.


They lost money in 2019 where everybody else was in positive numbers.

viewtopic.php?t=1431749

I see a government rescue as problematic with the current TAP and Portugal within the EU. TAP is a huge carrier for a small country like Portugal; more akin to Emirates or KLM than to Lufthansa or Iberia.

Germany has to rescue Lufthansa. Portugal has to rescue TAP. The problem with Portugal rescuing somebody is that that money ultimately comes from the EU (aka Germany). Will Germany allow Portugal to rescue TAP so TAP can keep undercutting Lufthansa's fares?

Not saying that TAP will disappear, but they might obligate them to return to a more "ratiional" size. And not the current TAP that was to have 5 daily New York flights this summer.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 07, 2020 1:11 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Tdan wrote:
Not sure I see how TAP survives without nationalization or significant reinvestment without a Summer season. They needed to print cash more than anything this summer and will not have that opportunity. Portugal is in a tough spot to come up with the funds and I’m not sure Neeleman is as engaged as before with Breeze sitting on a golden opportunity in the states.


They lost money in 2019 where everybody else was in positive numbers.

viewtopic.php?t=1431749

I see a government rescue as problematic with the current TAP and Portugal within the EU. TAP is a huge carrier for a small country like Portugal; more akin to Emirates or KLM than to Lufthansa or Iberia.

Germany has to rescue Lufthansa. Portugal has to rescue TAP. The problem with Portugal rescuing somebody is that that money ultimately comes from the EU (aka Germany). Will Germany allow Portugal to rescue TAP so TAP can keep undercutting Lufthansa's fares?

Not saying that TAP will disappear, but they might obligate them to return to a more "ratiional" size. And not the current TAP that was to have 5 daily New York flights this summer.


5 daily flights to New York? I know it was EWR (2x LIS, 1x OPO), and JFK-LIS (OPO A21N, everything else A339), but where was the 5th frequency? At least they got some sense and are down-sizing to just 1 daily (from July) A21N, but they now have way too many wide-bodies (19 A339s and 7 A332s)...and not enough long-haul configured A21Ns (although theoretically, some of the Europe-configured Cabin Flex frames could be reconfigured internationally).
 
airbazar
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 07, 2020 2:22 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Germany has to rescue Lufthansa. Portugal has to rescue TAP. The problem with Portugal rescuing somebody is that that money ultimately comes from the EU (aka Germany). Will Germany allow Portugal to rescue TAP so TAP can keep undercutting Lufthansa's fares?

Not saying that TAP will disappear, but they might obligate them to return to a more "ratiional" size. And not the current TAP that was to have 5 daily New York flights this summer.


That's a pretty ignorant statement.
For starters Portugal buys far more from Germany than Germany buys from Portugal. That shiny new Airbus fleet didn't come cheap.
In 2018 the EU (not Germany) spent 5 billion Euros in Portugal, or the equivalent of 2.55% of GDP.
By contrast travel and tourism accounted for 19.1% of GDP in 2018.
The Netherlands was/is the largest per capita contributor to the EU budget (not Germany). So I suppose, according to your thought process the Dutch should deny Germany's rescue to Lufthansa :lol:
It's not that black and white. That's the whole point of a Union. It goes both ways.
As for the 5 daily flights to NYC, it's just as absurd as the LH group's 5 daily flights they were planning to BOS for this Summer. Personally I don't think either is absurd if the market exists.
 
danipawa
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 14, 2020 8:02 pm

Airbus A320 -214 2178 CS-TNP TAP Air Portugal for return to lessor mid-jun20, parked at FAO (+ A321‑211 1713 CS-TJG in late-jun20, parked at LIS) ex 9H-AER

https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb.main?LC=nav4
 
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mercure1
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 21, 2020 6:07 pm

TAP says that it could lose up to 1,700 workers and more than 30 planes, reducing its fleet by 25% as part of restructuring.
mercure f-wtcc
 
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AECM
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 21, 2020 6:21 pm

If possible i think the reduction of the fleet will be made by accelerating the retirement of the older aircraft, TAP currently has 17 x A319 with an average age of 20,5 years and 10 x A320CEO that are between 16 and 21 years old. Also the 4 x EMB195 were also planned to leave, the 8 x AT72 will probably shrink and the remaining 7 x A332 with the operating cost of the A339 being similar can also be a possibility.
 
AF022
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 21, 2020 8:01 pm

mercure1 wrote:
TAP says that it could lose up to 1,700 workers and more than 30 planes, reducing its fleet by 25% as part of restructuring.


What routes are most likely to be abandoned? Are they talking about giving up wide-body, narrow-body, or both?
 
airbazar
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Thu May 21, 2020 8:54 pm

AF022 wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
TAP says that it could lose up to 1,700 workers and more than 30 planes, reducing its fleet by 25% as part of restructuring.


What routes are most likely to be abandoned? Are they talking about giving up wide-body, narrow-body, or both?

No idea what routes will be given up. A 25% reduction in aircraft could also translate into fewer frequencies.
The following article states 8 long haul and 23 short haul aircraft which is in line with the suggestion that was made above by 'AECM' that they will just retire the oldest planes in the fleet.
https://rr.sapo.pt/2020/05/20/economia/ ... ia/193513/

factsonly wrote:
An often repeated mistake is to look at the geographic size of a country, when it is the size of a nation's economy that determines airline size.

In my opinion it's neither although having both a large economy and a large population should in theory help but not always. Case in point: Italy, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India, etc, etc, etc. Heck even France. When was the last time AF (without KL), turned a profit?
At the end of the day a company will succeed if it's well managed and fail if it's poorly managed. In this particular sector an airline from a small country can succeed. KLM is a good example: The majority of KLM fliers are not Dutch. Likewise, the majority of TAP's fliers are not Portuguese. ET is another good example. It's a well run and profitable airline, about the same size as TAP but based in a country where the per capita GDP is barely $1,000.
If an airline is well managed and it has a well managed supporting infrastructure, it doesn't matter where its hub is located (economically).
In the case of TAP, that doesn't happen. I think the airline is decently managed now but they are handicapped by decades of poor management and government interference, and the complete lack of anything resembling a modern and efficient hub from which to operate. It's impossible for it to even turn a profit when it constantly has to pay out penalties for delayed or cancelled flights, lost luggage, or when its labor goes on strike every year.
If the country were to fix the airport situation and the government stop pandering to labor every election year, TAP might have a chance.
 
SCQ83
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 6:35 am

AF022 wrote:
What routes are most likely to be abandoned? Are they talking about giving up wide-body, narrow-body, or both?


Given how disproportionally big TAP is for a country like Portugal, I think it is easy to achieve that:

1) The OPO hub. TAP was building OPO as a second hub with some connectivity and +15 routes. For instance they were able to sell MAD-OPO-EWR with reasonable times. It is worth noting that now that flights have resumed for TAP, they have resumed most routes out of LIS and only 2 international routes out of OPO (Paris and London), plus LIS and islands. OPO was an anomaly, when you see the likes of British Airways, Iberia or Air France (in much bigger countries) not bothering with a second international hub.

2) Thin routes. Last year already TAP cut a few recent routes (CGN, BSL, FEZ, OTP, LFW, etc). Some of those routes like Fez or Lomé were what I have called before pure Turkish/Emirates style (what is the local market between Lisbon and Fes/Lomé?).

3) Over-served routes. I have mentioned previously the case of New York. TAP was to fly this summer 4 or 5 NYC flights. It should be easy to cut frequencies here and there.
 
continental004
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 6:51 am

SCQ83 wrote:
AF022 wrote:
What routes are most likely to be abandoned? Are they talking about giving up wide-body, narrow-body, or both?


Given how disproportionally big TAP is for a country like Portugal, I think it is easy to achieve that:

1) The OPO hub. TAP was building OPO as a second hub with some connectivity and +15 routes. For instance they were able to sell MAD-OPO-EWR with reasonable times. It is worth noting that now that flights have resumed for TAP, they have resumed most routes out of LIS and only 2 international routes out of OPO (Paris and London), plus LIS and islands. OPO was an anomaly, when you see the likes of British Airways, Iberia or Air France (in much bigger countries) not bothering with a second international hub.

2) Thin routes. Last year already TAP cut a few recent routes (CGN, BSL, FEZ, OTP, LFW, etc). Some of those routes like Fez or Lomé were what I have called before pure Turkish/Emirates style (what is the local market between Lisbon and Fes/Lomé?).

3) Over-served routes. I have mentioned previously the case of New York. TAP was to fly this summer 4 or 5 NYC flights. It should be easy to cut frequencies here and there.


The OPO hub only got as big as it did because LIS is too small and congested for expansion in pre-Covid times.

LGW served as an secondary international hub for BA with a number of long haul routes.
 
jmmadrid
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 6:53 am

SCQ83 wrote:
AF022 wrote:
What routes are most likely to be abandoned? Are they talking about giving up wide-body, narrow-body, or both?


Given how disproportionally big TAP is for a country like Portugal, I think it is easy to achieve that:

1) The OPO hub. TAP was building OPO as a second hub with some connectivity and +15 routes. For instance they were able to sell MAD-OPO-EWR with reasonable times. It is worth noting that now that flights have resumed for TAP, they have resumed most routes out of LIS and only 2 international routes out of OPO (Paris and London), plus LIS and islands. OPO was an anomaly, when you see the likes of British Airways, Iberia or Air France (in much bigger countries) not bothering with a second international hub.

2) Thin routes. Last year already TAP cut a few recent routes (CGN, BSL, FEZ, OTP, LFW, etc). Some of those routes like Fez or Lomé were what I have called before pure Turkish/Emirates style (what is the local market between Lisbon and Fes/Lomé?).

3) Over-served routes. I have mentioned previously the case of New York. TAP was to fly this summer 4 or 5 NYC flights. It should be easy to cut frequencies here and there.


In addition, TAP were always the cheapest option in those "connecting" routes they offered. It was easy to find good deals even a few days before the flight. Maybe it's a good time to focus on yields?
 
ehusmann
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 6:59 am

SCQ83 wrote:
Given how disproportionally big TAP is for a country like Portugal, I think it is easy to achieve that:


Add to that:
4) Brazil... the way that country is handling the COVID crisis, it will take a long time to recover. And with that being one of the most important markets for TAP, it will take a big hit. That could easily account for all the A332 flights that need to be scrapped.
 
abrelosojos
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 7:35 am

I have said this over before, TAP has very good management, and it takes a while to turn 72 years of government run into profits in 3 years. However, like Portugal, I think TAP is vastly underrated. Kinda like how Portugal handled COVID versus Spain. Read up on the last few years of general political and economic management, and you will see what I mean about Portuguese political and economic performance versus Spain.

Antonoldo Neves (their CEO) is very good, and learnt from being a CEO at Azul. David Neeleman is anything but stupid. Their network and revenue over past 6 months has been lead by Arik De who is also very good. I have met all 3 of them personally, and if anyone can pull them out, it is them.

They are already doing all the stuff needed. From their winter planning, seems like OPO has been downsized. I am surprised they were able to pull it off politically. Connections have been tightened, and one of the smartest things I have seen is using the 321-LR on routes. For example, in NYC, I see all of their 339's being replaced by double daily EWR on a 321 LR, plus another to JFK, with some peak 339 flights. In Brasil, they seem to have cut down heavily.

Don't count them out. If anything, I am betting Air Europa is gone, especially if IAG decides not to go ahead with another Spanish conquest.

Saludos,
Alex
Live, and let live.
 
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fidelidade
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 7:49 am

airbazar wrote:
AF022 wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
TAP says that it could lose up to 1,700 workers and more than 30 planes, reducing its fleet by 25% as part of restructuring.


What routes are most likely to be abandoned? Are they talking about giving up wide-body, narrow-body, or both?

No idea what routes will be given up. A 25% reduction in aircraft could also translate into fewer frequencies.
The following article states 8 long haul and 23 short haul aircraft which is in line with the suggestion that was made above by 'AECM' that they will just retire the oldest planes in the fleet.
https://rr.sapo.pt/2020/05/20/economia/ ... ia/193513/

factsonly wrote:
An often repeated mistake is to look at the geographic size of a country, when it is the size of a nation's economy that determines airline size.

In my opinion it's neither although having both a large economy and a large population should in theory help but not always. Case in point: Italy, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India, etc, etc, etc. Heck even France. When was the last time AF (without KL), turned a profit?
At the end of the day a company will succeed if it's well managed and fail if it's poorly managed. In this particular sector an airline from a small country can succeed. KLM is a good example: The majority of KLM fliers are not Dutch. Likewise, the majority of TAP's fliers are not Portuguese. ET is another good example. It's a well run and profitable airline, about the same size as TAP but based in a country where the per capita GDP is barely $1,000.
If an airline is well managed and it has a well managed supporting infrastructure, it doesn't matter where its hub is located (economically).
In the case of TAP, that doesn't happen. I think the airline is decently managed now but they are handicapped by decades of poor management and government interference, and the complete lack of anything resembling a modern and efficient hub from which to operate. It's impossible for it to even turn a profit when it constantly has to pay out penalties for delayed or cancelled flights, lost luggage, or when its labor goes on strike every year.
If the country were to fix the airport situation and the government stop pandering to labor every election year, TAP might have a chance.


abrelosojos wrote:
I have said this over before, TAP has very good management, and it takes a while to turn 72 years of government run into profits in 3 years. However, like Portugal, I think TAP is vastly underrated. Kinda like how Portugal handled COVID versus Spain. Read up on the last few years of general political and economic management, and you will see what I mean about Portuguese political and economic performance versus Spain.

Antonoldo Neves (their CEO) is very good, and learnt from being a CEO at Azul. David Neeleman is anything but stupid. Their network and revenue over past 6 months has been lead by Arik De who is also very good. I have met all 3 of them personally, and if anyone can pull them out, it is them.

They are already doing all the stuff needed. From their winter planning, seems like OPO has been downsized. I am surprised they were able to pull it off politically. Connections have been tightened, and one of the smartest things I have seen is using the 321-LR on routes. For example, in NYC, I see all of their 339's being replaced by double daily EWR on a 321 LR, plus another to JFK, with some peak 339 flights. In Brasil, they seem to have cut down heavily.

Don't count them out. If anything, I am betting Air Europa is gone, especially if IAG decides not to go ahead with another Spanish conquest.

Saludos,
Alex


These statements are so true. I have so much respect for TAP and their management. It is like the airline that over past few years have been able to slowly move away from the old mentality. I am actually really impressed that they have stood by with their decisions to downsize Oporto. It is not easy in Portugal.

Look at these. Only in Portuguese.

https://www.ojogo.pt/extra/noticias/ant ... 65965.html

https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-05-04 ... s-publicos

https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/empresa ... ltuosa-tap
 
IrishLessor
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 8:11 am

Abrelosojos,
IAG is committed to Air Europa deal, it is just not clear what the final deal looks like.

Reading this whole thread I found it fascinating that comments said things like basically TAP is a gonner, new expensive fleet etc. Hindsight is an exact science.

The steps it has taken were right at the time based on what was known and the trajectory the industry was going on. Like Iberia to my mind, the TAP brand has been transformed and firmly left behind its government owned legacy and associated practices. It is largely irrelevant that TAP is per se larger than it needs to be for a country of Portugal's size, what is relevant is how many people's jobs it supports who pay into the Portuguese economy coffers. Developing the connecting traffic is the only strategic option for TAP, it has firmly established itself as a network carrier. Building the brand and refleeting the airline were also right. Sadly this virus has hit everybody.
If Lufthansa deserves a bailout, then I think TAP deserves a government soft loan.

Lufthansa though another separate topic, is in my opinion a whole other animal. They've bought up a huge number of airlines around Europe, actively tried to keep competition out of Germany e.g. domestic routes and tend to be quite price aggressive, all the while not returning satisfactory margins ( like 2%) ,or something like this in low single digits. The EU as a consequence may need to completely rethink the broader airline piece and at the current deregulation model. Alternatively, we will need a perpetual state aid system, otherwise Ryanair and a few others will have most airlines for lunch...my opinions of course.
 
SCQ83
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 8:57 am

ehusmann wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
Given how disproportionally big TAP is for a country like Portugal, I think it is easy to achieve that:


Add to that:
4) Brazil... the way that country is handling the COVID crisis, it will take a long time to recover. And with that being one of the most important markets for TAP, it will take a big hit. That could easily account for all the A332 flights that need to be scrapped.


Indeed. That looks like a logical point too.

I imagine this could mean the end of OPO-Brazil services (Azul on VCP-OPO has been already cancelled), maybe some secondary Brazilian destination falling from LIS (wasn't already Curitiba cancelled?; something like Porto Alegre or Maceió) and frequencies to major destinations like GRU and GIG readjusted.
 
Duartelmatos
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 10:34 am

The plan must be to retire the 7 A330-200 and keep both the 19 (+2 orders) A330neo’s and all the A321neoLR and respective orders for long haul.
For medium/ short haul, we may see a big part of the A320 CEO family going away, only keeping NEO aircrafts and respective orders. Basically it’s speeding up the retiring process already planned, starting with all the A319s.
In terms of destinations, we should expect the decrease of some frequencies and the cancellation of one or two long haul routes and no more than that, I would say.
Short/medium haul routes may have a stricter cut, from my point of view.
 
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lugie
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 10:46 am

SCQ83 wrote:
abrelosojos wrote:
Read up on the last few years of general political and economic management, and you will see what I mean about Portuguese political and economic performance versus Spain.


There is nothing particularly worth noting about the last few years in Portugal. PT has benefited from:

- A tourism boom like many other countries around the world. A lot of city-break / TATL / AirBNB tourism that now will be the worst hit.
- Very advantageous tax breaks for foreign residents (including Golden Visa for non-EU citizens)
- The largest percentage of native population living abroad in the OECD (other than Mexico) that kept increasing even during the Portuguese boom. Remittances back home that will be reduced with a global crisis.
- A crazy real estate bubble linked to the three points above that now will undoubtedly crash.


I don't think that's what the original post was hinting at.
Ask any economist with some knowledge in the recovery trajectories of Southern European countries after the 2008- Euro crisis and the unanimous response will be that Portugal has handled it best. Greece is still struggling but as you had pointed out above, its small size makes it neglectable and gives the EU more leverage in steering the country.
That doesn't work for Italy and Spain, if the EU pulled a Greece on them, that would be the end of the EU (or at least the end of the Euro zone).
Italy is, economically speaking, a basket case and has been so before the onset of COVID-19.
Spain was doing better than Italy but by far not good enough yet, largely attributed to the extreme variance in willingness to implement either very harsh austerity measures (in PP years) or almost none (PSOE motivated by the success of Podemos).

The only country that seems to have found a solid middle ground of some austerity but not to the destructive degree of entirely gutting the social state was Portugal, and their economy has shown the results at least since around 2015 under the leadership of Antonio Costa.
That is what they stand to lose
Q400 E175 E190 CRJ7 CRJ9 CRJX MD88 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A359 B733 B73G B738 B739 B748 B764 B772 B77W B788 B789
FRA STR HAM TXL MUC ZRH ACE BRU BLL DUB MAN ARN MAD OPO LIS FNC AMS PHL RDU LGA CLT EWR ORD ATL SFO MDW IAD YYZ SJO PTY
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 995
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 12:36 pm

Did TAP pull out of JFK?
 
airbazar
Posts: 10080
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 1:25 pm

jmmadrid wrote:

In addition, TAP were always the cheapest option in those "connecting" routes they offered. It was easy to find good deals even a few days before the flight. Maybe it's a good time to focus on yields?

That's driven in part because TAP has one of the cheapest operating costs in Europe, second only to TK I believe. There's a reason why TK often has the cheapest fares.
Having a per capita GDP that is half of that of the Netherlands helps because it means that your labor costs are also half.

SCQ83 wrote:
Same for tourism. Portugal will likely be worse hit than Spain, France or Italy this summer because 1) their domestic market is very small (and ES, FR and IT are betting on domestic demand), 2) the number of foreigners with second homes (other than Algarve) is smaller and 3) the geographical location of Portugal is much more peripheral to Europe and a lot of people this summer is not willing to take a plane (and driving from Munich or Geneva to the French/Spanish/Italian coasts is more realistic than to Portugal).


Humm, really? We shall see. Portugal already announced they are open for tourism starting June 6th, including visitors from the U.S., Canada, and Brazil. Remind me again what other country in Europe is open by that date? None. If you think that Portugal's tourism will be hit harder than Spain or France, i think you'll be mistaken. Being a smaller tourist destination also means they don't need a huge number of tourists in order to see a decent rebound.

But this is not necessarily good news for TAP. As stated, TP relies heavily on connecting traffic and if the rest of Europe isn't open, that's not very good for them.

France and Spain for example are far more reliant on Asian and American tourists than Portugal is, 2 groups that are unlikely to travel this Summer so it's hard for me to imagine those 2 countries ending this year with a better rebound in visitors.At the end of the day however I think we're splitting hairs. Everyone in Europe and around the world will suffer greatly and there's no getting away from that.
 
Jetport
Posts: 121
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2015 4:23 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 4:00 pm

Duartelmatos wrote:
The plan must be to retire the 7 A330-200 and keep both the 19 (+2 orders) A330neo’s and all the A321neoLR and respective orders for long haul.
For medium/ short haul, we may see a big part of the A320 CEO family going away, only keeping NEO aircrafts and respective orders. Basically it’s speeding up the retiring process already planned, starting with all the A319s.
In terms of destinations, we should expect the decrease of some frequencies and the cancellation of one or two long haul routes and no more than that, I would say.
Short/medium haul routes may have a stricter cut, from my point of view.


Is TAP really going to take the last 2 A330-900's? I'm sure some of the A330-900's they already have will be parked for a very long time, why in the world would they take more to send to storage for a few years?
 
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AECM
Posts: 308
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:52 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 4:04 pm

Jetport wrote:
Duartelmatos wrote:
The plan must be to retire the 7 A330-200 and keep both the 19 (+2 orders) A330neo’s and all the A321neoLR and respective orders for long haul.
For medium/ short haul, we may see a big part of the A320 CEO family going away, only keeping NEO aircrafts and respective orders. Basically it’s speeding up the retiring process already planned, starting with all the A319s.
In terms of destinations, we should expect the decrease of some frequencies and the cancellation of one or two long haul routes and no more than that, I would say.
Short/medium haul routes may have a stricter cut, from my point of view.


Is TAP really going to take the last 2 A330-900's? I'm sure some of the A330-900's they already have will be parked for a very long time, why in the world would they take more to send to storage for a few years?


The last two i think were only to be deliver later this year or in 2021 and if this is the case they can try to delay or even change for more A321LR, who knows.
 
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airportugal310
Posts: 3603
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 12:49 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 7:38 pm

AECM wrote:
Jetport wrote:
Duartelmatos wrote:
The plan must be to retire the 7 A330-200 and keep both the 19 (+2 orders) A330neo’s and all the A321neoLR and respective orders for long haul.
For medium/ short haul, we may see a big part of the A320 CEO family going away, only keeping NEO aircrafts and respective orders. Basically it’s speeding up the retiring process already planned, starting with all the A319s.
In terms of destinations, we should expect the decrease of some frequencies and the cancellation of one or two long haul routes and no more than that, I would say.
Short/medium haul routes may have a stricter cut, from my point of view.


Is TAP really going to take the last 2 A330-900's? I'm sure some of the A330-900's they already have will be parked for a very long time, why in the world would they take more to send to storage for a few years?


The last two i think were only to be deliver later this year or in 2021 and if this is the case they can try to delay or even change for more A321LR, who knows.


I think that's completely possible, considering the aircraft aren't likely to be in the FAL yet if delivery is later this year
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
Duartelmatos
Posts: 54
Joined: Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:33 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 11:47 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Did TAP pull out of JFK?


JFK is returning either in November 2020 or in January 2021.

Jetport wrote:
Duartelmatos wrote:
The plan must be to retire the 7 A330-200 and keep both the 19 (+2 orders) A330neo’s and all the A321neoLR and respective orders for long haul.
For medium/ short haul, we may see a big part of the A320 CEO family going away, only keeping NEO aircrafts and respective orders. Basically it’s speeding up the retiring process already planned, starting with all the A319s.
In terms of destinations, we should expect the decrease of some frequencies and the cancellation of one or two long haul routes and no more than that, I would say.
Short/medium haul routes may have a stricter cut, from my point of view.


Is TAP really going to take the last 2 A330-900's? I'm sure some of the A330-900's they already have will be parked for a very long time, why in the world would they take more to send to storage for a few years?


I think it makes sense those aircraft to be delivered as they’re only expected to arrive in 2021. TAP will have 7 A330-200 retired. Keep in mind that TAP has some destinations which have high demand from Portugal. The demand will come sooner or later and they must have aircrafts to fly. Cancun and Johannesburg are still expected to open in November.
As they are getting rid of many smaller aircrafts, I wouldn’t be surprised if they started flying some A339 in Europe again.
 
Duartelmatos
Posts: 54
Joined: Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:33 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Fri May 22, 2020 11:48 pm

I meant Cape Town instead of Johannesburg
 
airbazar
Posts: 10080
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 23, 2020 1:14 pm

AECM wrote:
The last two i think were only to be deliver later this year or in 2021 and if this is the case they can try to delay or even change for more A321LR, who knows.

I would hope they wait for the XLR. The LR isn't quite what they expected it to be. This past Winter it had to make quite a few refueling stops on the LIS-IAD route.
 
airhansa
Posts: 347
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Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 23, 2020 1:18 pm

I would prefer to see a consolidation of national airlines in Europe, ideally dropping their national branding. TAP has a small market and unremarkable seat product. I'd rather have the airline merged into another airline unless it expanded significantly outside Portugal within Europe.
 
User avatar
AECM
Posts: 308
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:52 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 23, 2020 1:27 pm

airbazar wrote:
AECM wrote:
The last two i think were only to be deliver later this year or in 2021 and if this is the case they can try to delay or even change for more A321LR, who knows.

I would hope they wait for the XLR. The LR isn't quite what they expected it to be. This past Winter it had to make quite a few refueling stops on the LIS-IAD route.
Yes the XLR would be a good improvement. I remember some fuel stops for TP47 LIS-BEL in Canarias or Cabo Verde. I did a very small flight from LIS to OPO in one of TAP A321LR and I liked the concept.
 
kipfilet
Posts: 97
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:44 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 23, 2020 3:24 pm

airhansa wrote:
I would prefer to see a consolidation of national airlines in Europe, ideally dropping their national branding. TAP has a small market and unremarkable seat product. I'd rather have the airline merged into another airline unless it expanded significantly outside Portugal within Europe.

Someone likes to pay a lot for their airfare!
 
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aemoreira1981
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 23, 2020 5:28 pm

The other issue now for TP is its reliance on the Brazil market. With COVID-19 there out of control, I cannot see TAP resuming any operations to Brazil for the foreseeable future, which would likely free up an A21N that would have gone to BEL. For the foreseeable future (most of the rest of NS20), I would suggest that TP only fly destinations reachable with a narrow body, plus MPM, sub-daily if need be (i.e., 3x weekly to BOS and 4x weekly to EWR, and YYZ and LAD also sharing a plane.) One or two A339s would be needed for MPM.
 
Duartelmatos
Posts: 54
Joined: Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:33 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sat May 23, 2020 7:33 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
The other issue now for TP is its reliance on the Brazil market. With COVID-19 there out of control, I cannot see TAP resuming any operations to Brazil for the foreseeable future, which would likely free up an A21N that would have gone to BEL. For the foreseeable future (most of the rest of NS20), I would suggest that TP only fly destinations reachable with a narrow body, plus MPM, sub-daily if need be (i.e., 3x weekly to BOS and 4x weekly to EWR, and YYZ and LAD also sharing a plane.) One or two A339s would be needed for MPM.


São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro started this week with 3 and 2 weekly flights.
 
Kikko19
Posts: 675
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2017 4:45 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sun May 24, 2020 7:46 am

Duartelmatos wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
The other issue now for TP is its reliance on the Brazil market. With COVID-19 there out of control, I cannot see TAP resuming any operations to Brazil for the foreseeable future, which would likely free up an A21N that would have gone to BEL. For the foreseeable future (most of the rest of NS20), I would suggest that TP only fly destinations reachable with a narrow body, plus MPM, sub-daily if need be (i.e., 3x weekly to BOS and 4x weekly to EWR, and YYZ and LAD also sharing a plane.) One or two A339s would be needed for MPM.


São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro started this week with 3 and 2 weekly flights.


before south America, TP should start to shuttle scandinavian tourists (except swedish still trying to get autoimmune) and later germans to own houses in south portugal, before Easyjet and FR will do the same. I wonder if DY will resume international ops this year.
 
factsonly
Posts: 2912
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:08 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sun May 24, 2020 9:00 am

For the time being TAP Air Portugal operates some pretty interesting routes like:

May 24, 2020: XMN - OPO TP9192 A339 CS-TUQ non-stop 13hrs49min:

https://www.flightradar24.com/TAP9192/248e067f
 
User avatar
AECM
Posts: 308
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:52 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sun May 24, 2020 9:45 am

factsonly wrote:
For the time being TAP Air Portugal operates some pretty interesting routes like:

May 24, 2020: XMN - OPO TP9192 A339 CS-TUQ non-stop 13hrs49min:

https://www.flightradar24.com/TAP9192/248e067f
TAP has been doing almost every week flights to China to bring medical equipment. Today there was a flight PEK-LIS and this from XMN-OPO
 
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fidelidade
Posts: 59
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:15 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sun May 24, 2020 3:25 pm

Smart ramp up plan being launched by TAP. At OPO, they are just maintaining LIS, FNC, and OPO.
 
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fidelidade
Posts: 59
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:15 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sun May 24, 2020 3:29 pm

Kikko19 wrote:
Duartelmatos wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
The other issue now for TP is its reliance on the Brazil market. With COVID-19 there out of control, I cannot see TAP resuming any operations to Brazil for the foreseeable future, which would likely free up an A21N that would have gone to BEL. For the foreseeable future (most of the rest of NS20), I would suggest that TP only fly destinations reachable with a narrow body, plus MPM, sub-daily if need be (i.e., 3x weekly to BOS and 4x weekly to EWR, and YYZ and LAD also sharing a plane.) One or two A339s would be needed for MPM.


São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro started this week with 3 and 2 weekly flights.


before south America, TP should start to shuttle scandinavian tourists (except swedish still trying to get autoimmune) and later germans to own houses in south portugal, before Easyjet and FR will do the same. I wonder if DY will resume international ops this year.


I see their plan for July, and it is exactly what they are doing. Re-banked all their operation so double daily Germany connect with Islands and domestic. No much capacity for Brasil, and very pessimistic about Spain. Interestingly, lots of Italian service resumption’s.
 
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airportugal310
Posts: 3603
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 12:49 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sun May 24, 2020 9:39 pm

fidelidade wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
Duartelmatos wrote:

São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro started this week with 3 and 2 weekly flights.


before south America, TP should start to shuttle scandinavian tourists (except swedish still trying to get autoimmune) and later germans to own houses in south portugal, before Easyjet and FR will do the same. I wonder if DY will resume international ops this year.


I see their plan for July, and it is exactly what they are doing. Re-banked all their operation so double daily Germany connect with Islands and domestic. No much capacity for Brasil, and very pessimistic about Spain. Interestingly, lots of Italian service resumption’s.


Thoughts on Boston?
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
User avatar
aemoreira1981
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sun May 24, 2020 9:53 pm

Duartelmatos wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
The other issue now for TP is its reliance on the Brazil market. With COVID-19 there out of control, I cannot see TAP resuming any operations to Brazil for the foreseeable future, which would likely free up an A21N that would have gone to BEL. For the foreseeable future (most of the rest of NS20), I would suggest that TP only fly destinations reachable with a narrow body, plus MPM, sub-daily if need be (i.e., 3x weekly to BOS and 4x weekly to EWR, and YYZ and LAD also sharing a plane.) One or two A339s would be needed for MPM.


São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro started this week with 3 and 2 weekly flights.


I would hope the EU steps in there, given that the USA has just banned entry for non-Americans from Brazil...GIG and GRU should only be for cargo.

airportugal310 wrote:
fidelidade wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:

before south America, TP should start to shuttle scandinavian tourists (except swedish still trying to get autoimmune) and later germans to own houses in south portugal, before Easyjet and FR will do the same. I wonder if DY will resume international ops this year.


I see their plan for July, and it is exactly what they are doing. Re-banked all their operation so double daily Germany connect with Islands and domestic. No much capacity for Brasil, and very pessimistic about Spain. Interestingly, lots of Italian service resumption’s.


Thoughts on Boston?


BOS should be quick to resume as well, from both PDL and LIS. At least CS-TJM/N should be ETOPS equipped, as they were with Primera Air previously and TP kept the Primera Air configuration, giving TP currently six ETOPS-equipped A21Ns (two non-LR and four-LR)...CS-TJM/N and CS-TXA/B/C/D, with -E/F due soon. PDL-BOS could be on TJM/N.
Last edited by aemoreira1981 on Sun May 24, 2020 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User001
Posts: 1058
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:18 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sun May 24, 2020 9:57 pm

Some UK and Eire news for TAP post covid

One of 2 OPO-LGW flights moves to LHR (nightstopper) from July 1st.

DUB: 4 weekly nightstopper added from 25th October. Some days have 3 daily but overall frequency remains 14 weekly.

MAN: 4 weekly nightstopper added from 25th October. Frequency increases from the 12 weekly of W19 to 15 weekly this winter. Some days see 3 daily flights.
 
User avatar
AECM
Posts: 308
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:52 am

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Sun May 24, 2020 10:49 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:


BOS should be quick to resume as well, from both PDL and LIS. At least CS-TJM/N should be ETOPS equipped, as they were with Primera Air previously and TP kept the Primera Air configuration, giving TP currently six ETOPS-equipped A21Ns (two non-LR and four-LR)...CS-TJM/N and CS-TXA/B/C/D, with -E/F due soon. PDL-BOS could be on TJM/N.


I think that TJM/TJN kept the Primera cabin but the aux tanks were removed. Currently there are two more A321LR in XFW that should be ready for flight testing and delivery.
 
9Patch
Posts: 523
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: TAP Air Portugal's post COVID-19 crisis

Mon May 25, 2020 2:06 am

airbazar wrote:

Humm, really? We shall see. Portugal already announced they are open for tourism starting June 6th, including visitors from the U.S., Canada, and Brazil. Remind me again what other country in Europe is open by that date? None. If you think that Portugal's tourism will be hit harder than Spain or France, i think you'll be mistaken. Being a smaller tourist destination also means they don't need a huge number of tourists in order to see a decent rebound.


Just because Portugal is open June 6, doesn't mean tourists will come.
I would love to visit Portugal some day and I imagine there are great deals to be had on Airbnb. But no, I don't feel comfortable taking a long flight to go anywhere this year.

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