SCQ83 wrote:abrelosojos wrote:I have said this over before, TAP has very good management, and it takes a while to turn 72 years of government run into profits in 3 years. However, like Portugal, I think TAP is vastly underrated. Kinda like how Portugal handled COVID versus Spain
Completely irrelevant other than some pieces of news. There is no country in Europe that has managed worst the crisis than the UK. And Greece has also managed it very well. It doesn't mean that business or high-end demand is going to move from London to Athens or Lisbon because of that.
Same for tourism. Portugal will likely be worse hit than Spain, France or Italy this summer because 1) their domestic market is very small (and ES, FR and IT are betting on domestic demand), 2) the number of foreigners with second homes (other than Algarve) is smaller and 3) the geographical location of Portugal is much more peripheral to Europe and a lot of people this summer is not willing to take a plane (and driving from Munich or Geneva to the French/Spanish/Italian coasts is more realistic than to Portugal).abrelosojos wrote:Read up on the last few years of general political and economic management, and you will see what I mean about Portuguese political and economic performance versus Spain.
There is nothing particularly worth noting about the last few years in Portugal. PT has benefited from:
- A tourism boom like many other countries around the world. A lot of city-break / TATL / AirBNB tourism that now will be the worst hit.
- Very advantageous tax breaks for foreign residents (including Golden Visa for non-EU citizens)
- The largest percentage of native population living abroad in the OECD (other than Mexico) that kept increasing even during the Portuguese boom. Remittances back home that will be reduced with a global crisis.
- A crazy real estate bubble linked to the three points above that now will undoubtedly crash.
I don't know why you keep thinking that. As many of the posters are noting, most people generally are of the view Portugal has been remarkably well managed over the past few years, especially when compared to the chaos that has been in Spain. The handling of the coronavirus epidemic is another example of this solid political leadership. Remember, Portugal has not suffered from all the political crisis and riots Spain has with Catalunya and all that.
Here is some information from respected global media on Portugal handling the crisis:
https://www.businessinsider.com/portugu ... sis-2020-4
https://www.spiegel.de/international/eu ... 849ff69def
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-minister
https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-20 ... index.html
(All are big famous and respectable media, and not Portuguese)
Here is some information on how most people think Portugal did better than any other countries after the Euro crisis:
https://www.spiegel.de/international/eu ... 88837.html
https://www.economist.com/europe/2018/0 ... t-portugal
https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/1 ... government
On TAP, like every airline, it will need to downsize. This is not just a Portuguese challenge. I actually think it gives them a golden opportunity to right size Oporto, and continue the transformation they are doing. I don't see any destination cancelations, and I see them playing with aircraft size and frequency. As others have said, they have a very good management team, and the turn around in revenue at the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020 was something pretty impressive.