Welcome to Indian Aviation Thread for May 2020. Please continue your discussion and to add your comments here.

Link to previous thread:

Indian Aviation Thread - April 2020

I was about to think that you may use the same thread till June/July as we don't have any definite clarifications from MoCA (Ministry of Civil Aviation) . Till we don't hear anything definite, there's probably no point in just making monthly threads till traffic doesn't start. We may see some odd flight here or there, as shared by some of the civil aviation enthusiasts, or maybe an airline going bust (also possible) but other than that nothing till things start. And even then as shared by somebody before, the prices will be high, I am guessing if an aircraft has 300 seats, in reality you could book only to 150 seats keeping in mind social distancing, and even then it's a big risk as far as the contagion is concerned. I hope others can share what they think will happen.

This from the OAG Thread - Thanks to poster @enilria:
*UA BOM-EWR JUN 0.9>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[0] SEP 1.0>0.8[0.8]
UA DEL-EWR JUN 0.9>0[0]
UA DEL-SFO JUN 0.4>0[0]

It is interesting that UA filed BOM all the way out to Sep but held out on DEL for beyond June. I couldn't see JFK-BOM filing in that list.

India is going to operate relief flights for stranded Indians abroad.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronav ... e-bigstory

This could set another record, although this time by SpiceJet, not Air India.

dtw2hyd wrote:

India is going to operate relief flights for stranded Indians abroad.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronav ... e-bigstory

This could set another record, although this time by SpiceJet, not Air India.

As a senior member on the forum, would love to listen to your views on something similar like CARES act in India for aviation... is it possible? Should it be done?

unnayan wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

India is going to operate relief flights for stranded Indians abroad.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronav ... e-bigstory

This could set another record, although this time by SpiceJet, not Air India.

As a senior member on the forum, would love to listen to your views on something similar like CARES act in India for aviation... is it possible? Should it be done?

I don't think there will be any bailout. A law like CARES act treats all airlines the same, present government never likes giving all equal opportunity to survive. So as usual first pick which airline be saved, frame rules to help the handpicked airline, others will be holding bin bags.

There was talk about $2B tax deferment plan in March, it was just talk, and we know who is the expert in milking tax deferments in India. Low oil prices is an issue for governments depend on oil tax revenues.

If I have to make a prediction, most regional evacuation charters will be operated by SpiceJet, leftovers will to Indigo/GoAir. Long haul will go to Air India and Vistara.

Bottom line this massive evacuation plan will decide which airlines will survive and which one will fold.

Should there be a bailout, absolutely, US didn't wait even a couple of weeks to give out $58 Billion, there is talk about 10 Billion Euros to Lufthansa, I am sure Chinese gave their airlines several $$Billions. From the true capitalists societies to fake capitalists countries and everyone in between quickly bailed out their own.

Transportation in a developing country is a necessity, it has to be subsidized, otherwise country would not grow.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Transportation in a developing country is a necessity, it has to be subsidized, otherwise country would not grow.

Barring aviation, transportation sector is heavily subsidised in India. AI too actually, due to them being a perennially loss making entity.

dtw2hyd wrote:

I don't think there will be any bailout. A law like CARES act treats all airlines the same, present government never likes giving all equal opportunity to survive. So as usual first pick which airline be saved, frame rules to help the handpicked airline, others will be holding bin bags.
........
If I have to make a prediction, most regional evacuation charters will be operated by SpiceJet, leftovers will to Indigo/GoAir. Long haul will go to Air India and Vistara.

Bottom line this massive evacuation plan will decide which airlines will survive and which one will fold.

In this process the actually sincere airlines like GoAir will suffer, and the "sick" companies i.e Air India & SpiceJet will continue to function like nothing ever happened. The govt's two favourite are also the worst performing in the country, and they are not the most deserving candidates for any bailout. When they can't make money in good days, no point saving them during the bad times. If I had to pick from the two to be saved, would say SpiceJet. Air India's losses would increase exponentially from now, and they already have massive ones to begin with. On top of that they can't downsize their employee strength and introduce pay cuts or any real cost cutting measures as they are heavily unionized.

Hope sense prevails with the current govt and they have a fair approach to save the aviation industry.

Three Qantas flights to pick up Aussies stranded in India: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 54pjz.html

2 x DEL-SYD
1 x DEL-MEL

Favorites are not if Spice Jet get a bailout, Indigo, GoAir and other airlines will get one too. They are not going to keep quiet if Spice Jet gets any money. And GoAir needs a bail out desperately more than Spice Jet now.

Like I said, it won't be a bailout, so no scope to complaints.

Hypothetically, one airline could win most of the evacuation charter flight bids, on the up and up earning decent revenue, how can others complain? Modi has no family, no kids, pure as a fresh water pearl. How can any one complain of wrong doing.

dtw2hyd wrote:

India is going to operate relief flights for stranded Indians abroad.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronav ... e-bigstory

This could set another record, although this time by SpiceJet, not Air India.

Hope all of you are doing well and staying healthy. Do you know about the relief flights ex USA to India? I am in the USA and have no leads. Is the only option to contact the Consulate/Embassy?

Thank you

auserhasnoname wrote:

Hope all of you are doing well and staying healthy. Do you know about the relief flights ex USA to India? I am in the USA and have no leads. Is the only option to contact the Consulate/Embassy?

Thank you

You need to go to the Embassy website and register on a form. If I find a workable link i will share. I had one on my WA but it is not working right now. I think that is how they are collecting info for the volume needed for mounting the ops.

VTORD wrote:

auserhasnoname wrote:

Hope all of you are doing well and staying healthy. Do you know about the relief flights ex USA to India? I am in the USA and have no leads. Is the only option to contact the Consulate/Embassy?

Thank you

You need to go to the Embassy website and register on a form. If I find a workable link i will share. I had one on my WA but it is not working right now. I think that is how they are collecting info for the volume needed for mounting the ops.

Thank you @vtord I will try and find the form but if you have a working link please let me know

auserhasnoname wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

India is going to operate relief flights for stranded Indians abroad.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronav ... e-bigstory

This could set another record, although this time by SpiceJet, not Air India.

Hope all of you are doing well and staying healthy. Do you know about the relief flights ex USA to India? I am in the USA and have no leads. Is the only option to contact the Consulate/Embassy?

Thank you

Sorry, I don't have any additional info. There is a tweet by PIB, not many details, also nothing on Indian Embassy site in USA. On one of the Michigan Indian forums, there was a reference to R2I (Return to India) site, but no link.

https://twitter.com/PIBHomeAffairs/stat ... 73/photo/1

VTORD wrote:

auserhasnoname wrote:

Hope all of you are doing well and staying healthy. Do you know about the relief flights ex USA to India? I am in the USA and have no leads. Is the only option to contact the Consulate/Embassy?

Thank you

You need to go to the Embassy website and register on a form. If I find a workable link i will share. I had one on my WA but it is not working right now. I think that is how they are collecting info for the volume needed for mounting the ops.

Thank you I found the link

https://indianembassyusa.gov.in/reg_indian_nationals

dtw2hyd wrote:

auserhasnoname wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

India is going to operate relief flights for stranded Indians abroad.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronav ... e-bigstory

This could set another record, although this time by SpiceJet, not Air India.

Hope all of you are doing well and staying healthy. Do you know about the relief flights ex USA to India? I am in the USA and have no leads. Is the only option to contact the Consulate/Embassy?

Thank you

Sorry, I don't have any additional info. There is a tweet by PIB, not many details, also nothing on Indian Embassy site in USA. On one of the Michigan Indian forums, there was a reference to R2I (Return to India) site, but no link.

https://twitter.com/PIBHomeAffairs/stat ... 73/photo/1

Thank you

Singapore Airlines commits to Vistara, no obligation to Virgin Australia

In a written response to shareholders questions ahead of the meeting published on April 29, SIA decline to discuss Virgin Australia's recent announcement on voluntary administration saying that it is too early for any further comment. SIA owns 20 per cent of Virgin Australia. It however said that it has no obligations or requirement to put in capital for Virgin Australia, that the equity investment is fully provided for in its books, and it has made no loans to the stricken Australian airline.

At the same time, it stated that Vistara, its 49 per cent owned joint venture airline with Tata, is well-positioned for recovery post Covid-19 and remains committed to support Vistara in its fleet plans.

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 476_1.html

No sign of bailout from govt yet, GoAir promoters tell employees
Wadia group promoters Nusli Wadia and son Jeh said there have been no signs of help from the Centre and banks to bail out the aviation sector. The Wadia group owns low-cost airline GoAir, which has sent 90 per cent of its employees on leave without pay till May 4.
The group stated this in a letter to the airlines’ employees on May 3.

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 562_1.html

The pandemic is primarily a western problem. China managed to mostly contain the outbreak to a few central provinces, as can be seen from the lack of infections in Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Most of the infections in East Asia can be traced back through Europe and the US, stating the successes of East Asian healthcare policy.

East Asia consequently is also less economically affected than the West. India is expected to have the highest economic growth in 2020 as well. I think that air travel can rebound quickly in Asia for this reason.

dtw2hyd wrote:

If I have to make a prediction, most regional evacuation charters will be operated by SpiceJet, leftovers will to Indigo/GoAir. Long haul will go to Air India and Vistara.

As pe the latest, only Air India and AIX have got the mandate for evacuation. A full schedule is published as covered in the link below.

https://english.manoramaonline.com/news ... us-uk.html

airhansa wrote:

The pandemic is primarily a western problem. China managed to mostly contain the outbreak to a few central provinces, as can be seen from the lack of infections in Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Most of the infections in East Asia can be traced back through Europe and the US, stating the successes of East Asian healthcare policy.

East Asia consequently is also less economically affected than the West. India is expected to have the highest economic growth in 2020 as well. I think that air travel can rebound quickly in Asia for this reason.

are you living in India brother or living in la-la-land somewhere ? The way the economy has been hit and the way rampant profiteering has been taking place it's going to take a long time to get things fixed. I just had talked to a doctor who is now retired, used to work in Canada in the field of epidolomogy and his gut feel was atleast have the lockdown for 3-4 months more, till there isn't a working vaccine, not something which is in trials or done at lab but something that people will know will work. Of course this is going to create havoc with people's finances, health everything but this is the way it is going to be for few months now. How they will package it, is something we would have to see.

AirIndia wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

If I have to make a prediction, most regional evacuation charters will be operated by SpiceJet, leftovers will to Indigo/GoAir. Long haul will go to Air India and Vistara.

As pe the latest, only Air India and AIX have got the mandate for evacuation. A full schedule is published as covered in the link below.

https://english.manoramaonline.com/news ... us-uk.html

I am sure seeing an article claiming Air India was going to get most of the Jet Airways slots. SOP of Modi's misinformation campaign. Several hundred thousands, if not more than a million need to be bought back home, 15000 is a drop in the bucket. Wait until it is over.

pune wrote:

airhansa wrote:

The pandemic is primarily a western problem. China managed to mostly contain the outbreak to a few central provinces, as can be seen from the lack of infections in Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Most of the infections in East Asia can be traced back through Europe and the US, stating the successes of East Asian healthcare policy.

East Asia consequently is also less economically affected than the West. India is expected to have the highest economic growth in 2020 as well. I think that air travel can rebound quickly in Asia for this reason.

are you living in India brother or living in la-la-land somewhere ? The way the economy has been hit and the way rampant profiteering has been taking place it's going to take a long time to get things fixed. I just had talked to a doctor who is now retired, used to work in Canada in the field of epidolomogy and his gut feel was atleast have the lockdown for 3-4 months more, till there isn't a working vaccine, not something which is in trials or done at lab but something that people will know will work. Of course this is going to create havoc with people's finances, health everything but this is the way it is going to be for few months now. How they will package it, is something we would have to see.

I'm not Indian but it's important to remember that the pandemic has hit western countries harder than Asian countries. India has been relatively spared (compared to its large population) in terms of health impact (I believe deaths overall are less during the lockdown due to fewer work/commute related deaths) and furthermore its touted as being the fastest growing economy in 2020. It will become a major haven for inward money flows from investors fleeing western countries and Chinese firms looking to find new sources of revenue (not to mention that China is also still expected to grow). The recession is by far something that will hurt westerners more than easterners.

Furthermore, the initial outbreak in Wuhan was mostly confined to the central Chinese provinces, and this can be seen from the lack of infections in Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan (if you don't believe the Chinese figures). The infections in South Korea were due to Christian missionaries who flew to Wuhan against collective Korean protocol. The majority of infections in East Asia, including Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, can be traced back through Europe and the US. The vast majority of East Asia does not practice social distancing and the lockdowns are very weak (most of China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, South Korea and Indochina was not locked down. Japan has an advisory lockdown but its very weak and most establishments remain open.)

India does not need to be locked down. Just keep the elderly under curfew and support them financially/socially, because we can see from the Singapore situation that younger people being infected doesn't really matter. If anything, India may help lead the world out of the coroanvirus recession, with the help of China.

airhansa wrote:

I'm not Indian but it's important to remember that the pandemic has hit western countries harder than Asian countries. India has been relatively spared (compared to its large population) in terms of health impact (I believe deaths overall are less during the lockdown due to fewer work/commute related deaths) and furthermore its touted as being the fastest growing economy in 2020. It will become a major haven for inward money flows from investors fleeing western countries and Chinese firms looking to find new sources of revenue (not to mention that China is also still expected to grow). The recession is by far something that will hurt westerners more than easterners.

Furthermore, the initial outbreak in Wuhan was mostly confined to the central Chinese provinces, and this can be seen from the lack of infections in Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan (if you don't believe the Chinese figures). The infections in South Korea were due to Christian missionaries who flew to Wuhan against collective Korean protocol. The majority of infections in East Asia, including Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, can be traced back through Europe and the US. The vast majority of East Asia does not practice social distancing and the lockdowns are very weak (most of China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, South Korea and Indochina was not locked down. Japan has an advisory lockdown but its very weak and most establishments remain open.)

India does not need to be locked down. Just keep the elderly under curfew and support them financially/socially, because we can see from the Singapore situation that younger people being infected doesn't really matter. If anything, India may help lead the world out of the coroanvirus recession, with the help of China.

I am sorry, I know my reply is off-topic but where did you get this information. BJP-CCP IT cell annual conference or some monthly publication??

AirIndia wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

If I have to make a prediction, most regional evacuation charters will be operated by SpiceJet, leftovers will to Indigo/GoAir. Long haul will go to Air India and Vistara.

As pe the latest, only Air India and AIX have got the mandate for evacuation. A full schedule is published as covered in the link below.

https://english.manoramaonline.com/news ... us-uk.html

Are there likely to be additional evacuation flights USA-India?

AirIndia wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

If I have to make a prediction, most regional evacuation charters will be operated by SpiceJet, leftovers will to Indigo/GoAir. Long haul will go to Air India and Vistara.

As pe the latest, only Air India and AIX have got the mandate for evacuation. A full schedule is published as covered in the link below.

https://english.manoramaonline.com/news ... us-uk.html

AI is supported by GoI and it is no surprise that most and if not all the evacuation flights will be run by AI or AIX. This way AI can get some revenues, by recovering whatever money from the passengers returning home.

hohd wrote:

AI is supported by GoI and it is no surprise that most and if not all the evacuation flights will be run by AI or AIX. This way AI can get some revenues, by recovering whatever money from the passengers returning home.

If generating revenue for AI is the goal. Charging air evacuees is another smoke screen to deflect the blame for trying to collect rail fare from poor migrant workers, which backfired miserably.

I doubt India will deny travel for non-payment, because most countries mandate removal of Indian citizens. AI is not going to sell tickets to evacuees. The key phrase is "they are expected to pay". Government will pay for the chartered flight. If it is Air India invoice will be paid over next few years, if it is a favorite airline, government payment will be instant.

Favorite airline also operating a decent number of COVID-19 cargo flights. This won't be any different.

auserhasnoname wrote:

AirIndia wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

If I have to make a prediction, most regional evacuation charters will be operated by SpiceJet, leftovers will to Indigo/GoAir. Long haul will go to Air India and Vistara.

As pe the latest, only Air India and AIX have got the mandate for evacuation. A full schedule is published as covered in the link below.

https://english.manoramaonline.com/news ... us-uk.html

Are there likely to be additional evacuation flights USA-India?

There is apparently going to be a second round of flights to bring PIOs. But just a rumor at this point.

dtw2hyd wrote:

airhansa wrote:

I'm not Indian but it's important to remember that the pandemic has hit western countries harder than Asian countries. India has been relatively spared (compared to its large population) in terms of health impact (I believe deaths overall are less during the lockdown due to fewer work/commute related deaths) and furthermore its touted as being the fastest growing economy in 2020. It will become a major haven for inward money flows from investors fleeing western countries and Chinese firms looking to find new sources of revenue (not to mention that China is also still expected to grow). The recession is by far something that will hurt westerners more than easterners.

Furthermore, the initial outbreak in Wuhan was mostly confined to the central Chinese provinces, and this can be seen from the lack of infections in Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan (if you don't believe the Chinese figures). The infections in South Korea were due to Christian missionaries who flew to Wuhan against collective Korean protocol. The majority of infections in East Asia, including Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, can be traced back through Europe and the US. The vast majority of East Asia does not practice social distancing and the lockdowns are very weak (most of China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, South Korea and Indochina was not locked down. Japan has an advisory lockdown but its very weak and most establishments remain open.)

India does not need to be locked down. Just keep the elderly under curfew and support them financially/socially, because we can see from the Singapore situation that younger people being infected doesn't really matter. If anything, India may help lead the world out of the coroanvirus recession, with the help of China.

I am sorry, I know my reply is off-topic but where did you get this information. BJP-CCP IT cell annual conference or some monthly publication??

I'm not Indian but I find the obsession with partisan politics in India perplexing. The economy is expected to grow and the pandemic has hit far less compared with the West. The mood going around East Asia is that the West will be far harder hit due to their poor handling of the pandemic response.

airhansa wrote:

I'm not Indian but I find the obsession with partisan politics in India perplexing. The economy is expected to grow and the pandemic has hit far less compared with the West. The mood going around East Asia is that the West will be far harder hit due to their poor handling of the pandemic response.

Fitch puts India's growth at 0.8% and Moody puts at 0.2%.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr

dtw2hyd wrote:

hohd wrote:

AI is supported by GoI and it is no surprise that most and if not all the evacuation flights will be run by AI or AIX. This way AI can get some revenues, by recovering whatever money from the passengers returning home.

If generating revenue for AI is the goal. Charging air evacuees is another smoke screen to deflect the blame for trying to collect rail fare from poor migrant workers, which backfired miserably.

I doubt India will deny travel for non-payment, because most countries mandate removal of Indian citizens. AI is not going to sell tickets to evacuees. The key phrase is "they are expected to pay". Government will pay for the chartered flight. If it is Air India invoice will be paid over next few years, if it is a favorite airline, government payment will be instant.

Favorite airline also operating a decent number of COVID-19 cargo flights. This won't be any different.

If the Govt enforces those "expected to pay" especially for non-Middle East travelers by holding up passport renewals, then all will pay up as long as the cost is reasonable. US has collected a promissory note for US citizen evacuees from India by stating that they need to pay in the future or their passport renewals will be held up, with a reported cost was around $2000 from India to US one way.

For migrant laborers from Middle East it is entirely different, may be GoI has to eat the cost. And payment over several years to AI wont do AI any good, as it is the expectation that it will be sold next year.

And yes, trying to collect rail fare from migrant laborers has been a disaster, with railway officials backtracking their initial demands. Let this be a lesson for Modi government.

airhansa wrote:

I'm not Indian but I find the obsession with partisan politics in India perplexing. The economy is expected to grow and the pandemic has hit far less compared with the West. The mood going around East Asia is that the West will be far harder hit due to their poor handling of the pandemic response.

Ironically under the socialist system the airlines were not even companies but Soviet style arms of the Aviation ministry. Just like the Railways are with its own ministry.

Every incremental move that is taken will be judged solely from a very partisan viewpoint.

When would scheduled International flights resume from India? I've heard about projections into September and such...

VTORD wrote:

This from the OAG Thread - Thanks to poster @enilria:
*UA BOM-EWR JUN 0.9>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[0] SEP 1.0>0.8[0.8]
UA DEL-EWR JUN 0.9>0[0]
UA DEL-SFO JUN 0.4>0[0]

It is interesting that UA filed BOM all the way out to Sep but held out on DEL for beyond June. I couldn't see JFK-BOM filing in that list.

Probably because they wanted to show the start date of that route. It starts daily on Sept 08 as of today. As for EWR-DEL, that starts daily on July 06 and SFO-DEL also starts 3x weekly on July 06 operating Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays.

Vistara S20 International operations as of 03MAY20

Planned operation listed below remains subject to change.

Delhi – Colombo eff 01JUN20 6 weekly
Delhi – Kathmandu eff 18MAY20 1 daily
Delhi – Singapore eff 18MAY20 4 weekly (1 daily from 01JUN20)
Mumbai – Colombo eff 01JUN20 6 weekly
Mumbai – Dubai eff 18MAY20 1 daily
Mumbai – Singapore eff 01JUN20 1 daily

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-03may20/

Air India May 2020 Preliminary International Network as of 03MAY20
Looks like US and UK network remains at pre-COVID levels

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... ir%20india

VTORD wrote:

Vistara S20 International operations as of 03MAY20

Planned operation listed below remains subject to change.

Delhi – Colombo eff 01JUN20 6 weekly
Delhi – Kathmandu eff 18MAY20 1 daily
Delhi – Singapore eff 18MAY20 4 weekly (1 daily from 01JUN20)
Mumbai – Colombo eff 01JUN20 6 weekly
Mumbai – Dubai eff 18MAY20 1 daily
Mumbai – Singapore eff 01JUN20 1 daily

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-03may20/

Continuing from the previous thread.

What you are suggesting here seems to be a network driven by NB's. Really no different than IndiGo. The question becomes, at what point someone will be willing to pay a premium for Vistara.

CaliAtenza wrote:

When would scheduled International flights resume from India? I've heard about projections into September and such...

Projections for domestic travel within India is for June and international for July.

vadodara wrote:

Continuing from the previous thread.

What you are suggesting here seems to be a network driven by NB's. Really no different than IndiGo. The question becomes, at what point someone will be willing to pay a premium for Vistara.

Yes NBs all. What I was suggesting in the previous thread was:
Delhi – Singapore: A320 >> goes to B787-9
Mumbai – Dubai: B737(??) >> goes to A321
Mumbai – Singapore: A320 >> goes to A321

Something to watch is what they do with the 7 x 737s which were to exit the fleet by 2022-23. Does anyone know which routes Vistara runs their B737s?

dtw2hyd wrote:

airhansa wrote:

I'm not Indian but it's important to remember that the pandemic has hit western countries harder than Asian countries. India has been relatively spared (compared to its large population) in terms of health impact (I believe deaths overall are less during the lockdown due to fewer work/commute related deaths) and furthermore its touted as being the fastest growing economy in 2020. It will become a major haven for inward money flows from investors fleeing western countries and Chinese firms looking to find new sources of revenue (not to mention that China is also still expected to grow). The recession is by far something that will hurt westerners more than easterners.

Furthermore, the initial outbreak in Wuhan was mostly confined to the central Chinese provinces, and this can be seen from the lack of infections in Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan (if you don't believe the Chinese figures). The infections in South Korea were due to Christian missionaries who flew to Wuhan against collective Korean protocol. The majority of infections in East Asia, including Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, can be traced back through Europe and the US. The vast majority of East Asia does not practice social distancing and the lockdowns are very weak (most of China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, South Korea and Indochina was not locked down. Japan has an advisory lockdown but its very weak and most establishments remain open.)

India does not need to be locked down. Just keep the elderly under curfew and support them financially/socially, because we can see from the Singapore situation that younger people being infected doesn't really matter. If anything, India may help lead the world out of the coroanvirus recession, with the help of China.

I am sorry, I know my reply is off-topic but where did you get this information. BJP-CCP IT cell annual conference or some monthly publication??

The BJP??? More like the Chinese communist party propaganda. This original post is either seriously misguided or just trying to spread misinformation. But hey lets wait and see if there is a sudden surge in air travel to “safe” china. IMHO - don’t hold your breadth. As for India, the virus will seriously affect growth in 2020. Air travel to/from India will also be hit hard until there is a vaccine. Ask mentioned in one thread, I think AI’s June schedule is way too optimistic and unlike any airline I have seen. I think this will be the first Xmas in years that my family doesn’t make the trip back to Bombay. If people like us that find India totally safe and are not turned off by the poor hygiene and chaos are thinking about not going, forget about the general public. And we already cancelled our trip in July.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

airhansa wrote:

I'm not Indian but it's important to remember that the pandemic has hit western countries harder than Asian countries. India has been relatively spared (compared to its large population) in terms of health impact (I believe deaths overall are less during the lockdown due to fewer work/commute related deaths) and furthermore its touted as being the fastest growing economy in 2020. It will become a major haven for inward money flows from investors fleeing western countries and Chinese firms looking to find new sources of revenue (not to mention that China is also still expected to grow). The recession is by far something that will hurt westerners more than easterners.

Furthermore, the initial outbreak in Wuhan was mostly confined to the central Chinese provinces, and this can be seen from the lack of infections in Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan (if you don't believe the Chinese figures). The infections in South Korea were due to Christian missionaries who flew to Wuhan against collective Korean protocol. The majority of infections in East Asia, including Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, can be traced back through Europe and the US. The vast majority of East Asia does not practice social distancing and the lockdowns are very weak (most of China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, South Korea and Indochina was not locked down. Japan has an advisory lockdown but its very weak and most establishments remain open.)

India does not need to be locked down. Just keep the elderly under curfew and support them financially/socially, because we can see from the Singapore situation that younger people being infected doesn't really matter. If anything, India may help lead the world out of the coroanvirus recession, with the help of China.

I am sorry, I know my reply is off-topic but where did you get this information. BJP-CCP IT cell annual conference or some monthly publication??

The BJP??? More like the Chinese communist party propaganda. This original post is either seriously misguided or just trying to spread misinformation. But hey lets wait and see if there is a sudden surge in air travel to “safe” china. IMHO - don’t hold your breadth. As for India, the virus will seriously affect growth in 2020. Air travel to/from India will also be hit hard until there is a vaccine. Ask mentioned in one thread, I think AI’s June schedule is way too optimistic and unlike any airline I have seen. I think this will be the first Xmas in years that my family doesn’t make the trip back to Bombay. If people like us that find India totally safe and are not turned off by the poor hygiene and chaos are thinking about not going, forget about the general public. And we already cancelled our trip in July.

I fly through various airports in East Asia regularly and can see the differences in western perceptions of East Asia and the reality on the ground.

The coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan barely spread outside the central provinces, which can be reflected in the lack of infections in Taiwan, Macau and Hong Kong. Even Japan and Singapore had relatively few cases until the pandemic spread from Italy. South Korea was mostly due to Christian missionaries visiting Wuhan during the outbreak there. The bulk of the pandemic started only due to lack of containment by Italy and other western countries.

India is most likely be the least affected by the coronavirus because it's been less affected healthwise and also because its economy is less defendant on western investment. China and India are still expected to grow economically in 2020, which means there will be less jobs being lost, especially if the banking system in India is kept in order (loans etc...).

CaliguyNYC wrote:

Ask mentioned in one thread, I think AI’s June schedule is way too optimistic and unlike any airline I have seen.

Yep...coupled with the repat flights and the projections for the number of people to be eventually repatriated under Vande Bharat, the schedule makes even less sense.

May be private carriers are having crew issues. With never ending harassment by neighbors and homeowners associations, airline crew is no longer a sought out job, may be.

Also, if the crew roster has to accommodate quarantine periods, productivity will be way down for any private carrier to operate profitably.

I read for Vande BJP flights, crew has to quarantines before and after each flight. Huge cost.

VTORD wrote:

Yes NBs all. What I was suggesting in the previous thread was:
Delhi – Singapore: A320 >> goes to B787-9
Mumbai – Dubai: B737(??) >> goes to A321
Mumbai – Singapore: A320 >> goes to A321

Something to watch is what they do with the 7 x 737s which were to exit the fleet by 2022-23. Does anyone know which routes Vistara runs their B737s?

AFAIK, by and large, the 737 fleet operated Vistara's BOM-centered system.

5 AI pilots test positive..they were flying cargo missions to China

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.timesofi ... 655012.cms

unnayan wrote:

5 AI pilots test positive..they were flying cargo missions to China

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.timesofi ... 655012.cms

Feel bad for the pilots (and great full they helped bring supplies into India). What are the odds that 5 pilots flying to china test positive when China doesn’t have that many new cases. Perplexing...

airhansa wrote:

India is most likely be the least affected by the coronavirus because it's been less affected healthwise

That is not completely true. Going by the number of cases until now, it does appear that India is less affected. However, I do not think those are true numbers and the actual numbers are probably higher. Numbers are being reported from major cities and urban centers, but have we heard of numbers outside of those areas rather than just assuming cases are negligible in rural areas or smaller cities? Also another indicator is the curve shows no signs of flattening in India even after almost 2 months in a lockdown. The number of cases/deaths being reported everyday show that India does not have it under control yet.

DTWLAX wrote:

airhansa wrote:

India is most likely be the least affected by the coronavirus because it's been less affected healthwise

That is not completely true. Going by the number of cases until now, it does appear that India is less affected. However, I do not think those are true numbers and the actual numbers are probably higher. Numbers are being reported from major cities and urban centers, but have we heard of numbers outside of those areas rather than just assuming cases are negligible in rural areas or smaller cities? Also another indicator is the curve shows no signs of flattening in India even after almost 2 months in a lockdown. The number of cases/deaths being reported everyday show that India does not have it under control yet.

Overall deaths are actually lower than the normal death rate, because so few people have been killed by road accidents etc... and Singapore shows that a large number of young Indians being infected isn't such a cause for concern. The curve isn't flattening because it's already low (look at Japan). And regardless, India will still be the least affected by the coronavirus simply because everyone else is more affected, and India already has the history of dealing with (passively) both MERS and SARS, so it wouldn't take long for Indians to leave their houses and for economic activity to rebound. The west is going to face a far deeper recession than the east.

VTORD wrote:

vadodara wrote:

Continuing from the previous thread.

What you are suggesting here seems to be a network driven by NB's. Really no different than IndiGo. The question becomes, at what point someone will be willing to pay a premium for Vistara.

Yes NBs all. What I was suggesting in the previous thread was:
Delhi – Singapore: A320 >> goes to B787-9
Mumbai – Dubai: B737(??) >> goes to A321
Mumbai – Singapore: A320 >> goes to A321

Something to watch is what they do with the 7 x 737s which were to exit the fleet by 2022-23. Does anyone know which routes Vistara runs their B737s?

Yes, I concur. They are better off starting multiple frequency to business destinations such as Singapore, Dubai, and so forth on NB's.

The talk was Vistara purchasing multiple 787's and going the Jet Airway's route. Especially after Jet's history, that would be a bit insane.

"Going the Jet Airways' route"? Thats strange. If you read the threads, some people here were actually bashing Vistara for NOT going taking up Jet's FSC network!! Vistara has been super-cautious compared to Jet Airways....


Anyway.. some opinions regarding air traffic levels returning back after COVID19...

When will air traffic in India return to pre-COVID-19 levels?

While there are ongoing debates on the economic recovery being U-shaped, V-shaped or W-shaped, the lack of clarity on the future of aviation has made it “O” shaped – moving in circles without an exit path from the current crisis. A month and a half has passed since the last commercial flight took off in India. Now, it looks as if airline operations would be absent in half of the first quarter of FY21, if not more.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 49111.html