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SpaceshipDC10
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"Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sat May 02, 2020 7:50 pm

An Air Canada vice president suggests that by the time winter holidays roll around again, Canadians will be able to board his company's planes and fly almost anywhere in the world.

But Tim Strauss said he knows that one of the biggest tasks involved in bringing air travel back to life after pandemic restrictions lift will be convincing the public it's safe to fly.

"I think by Christmas you will see a significant amount of flying again," said Strauss, vice president of cargo at Air Canada. "We'll be flying to most places around the world and certainly domestically."

There may be fewer flights available and more connections than travellers are used to, he added.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/air-ca ... -1.5551402

That's nice projection, but other questions such as how many people and how quickly will they be able to pay for such trips once it's possible to enter other countries again?
 
Cubsrule
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sat May 02, 2020 7:54 pm

Remember that some significant portion of AC’s international portfolio isn’t especially long-haul or to especially expensive destinations. This isn’t a carrier like SQ.
 
cpd
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sat May 02, 2020 8:22 pm

SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
An Air Canada vice president suggests that by the time winter holidays roll around again, Canadians will be able to board his company's planes and fly almost anywhere in the world.

But Tim Strauss said he knows that one of the biggest tasks involved in bringing air travel back to life after pandemic restrictions lift will be convincing the public it's safe to fly.

"I think by Christmas you will see a significant amount of flying again," said Strauss, vice president of cargo at Air Canada. "We'll be flying to most places around the world and certainly domestically."

There may be fewer flights available and more connections than travellers are used to, he added.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/air-ca ... -1.5551402

That's nice projection, but other questions such as how many people and how quickly will they be able to pay for such trips once it's possible to enter other countries again?


I think that is very optimistic. I can’t see flying returning to normal until at least half way through next year. We need a working vaccine first. That will make it safe enough to travel again and as a result of that restore confidence.

A third step is of course people having stable jobs so they can afford to travel.
 
AMS18C36C
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sat May 02, 2020 8:45 pm

So he's talkin about lifting of travel restrictions I suppose, rather than the public willing to fly (or being able to fly, due to the inevitable economic recession).
 
acavpics
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sat May 02, 2020 9:23 pm

cpd wrote:
SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
An Air Canada vice president suggests that by the time winter holidays roll around again, Canadians will be able to board his company's planes and fly almost anywhere in the world.

But Tim Strauss said he knows that one of the biggest tasks involved in bringing air travel back to life after pandemic restrictions lift will be convincing the public it's safe to fly.

"I think by Christmas you will see a significant amount of flying again," said Strauss, vice president of cargo at Air Canada. "We'll be flying to most places around the world and certainly domestically."

There may be fewer flights available and more connections than travellers are used to, he added.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/air-ca ... -1.5551402

That's nice projection, but other questions such as how many people and how quickly will they be able to pay for such trips once it's possible to enter other countries again?


I think that is very optimistic. I can’t see flying returning to normal until at least half way through next year. We need a working vaccine first. That will make it safe enough to travel again and as a result of that restore confidence.

A third step is of course people having stable jobs so they can afford to travel.

And what if a vaccine cannot be found? After all, the "12-18 months" thing is just speculation, NOT a guarantee. Are we expected to live like this for an indefinite period of time?

Countries will absolutely HAVE to find a way to allow life to return to at least 90% normal even without a vaccine. Remdesivir has been qualified as a treatment for COVID-19, so that will help infected people seek treatment and be kept out of circulation.

Sure, travel will probably not return to December 2019 levels. But I do see that it could return at AT LEAST 75-80% of what it was then. People are going to get absolutely sick and tired of being cooped up at home at the end of the year. Also, by then, COVID-19 will likely have mutated into a less virulent/deadly form, making it just as lethal as lets say the seasonal flu.
Last edited by acavpics on Sat May 02, 2020 9:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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NWAESC
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sat May 02, 2020 9:25 pm

I like his optimism. Let’s hope he’s right.
 
acavpics
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sat May 02, 2020 9:26 pm

SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
[
That's nice projection, but other questions such as how many people and how quickly will they be able to pay for such trips once it's possible to enter other countries again?


I'm sure that in order to sell more seats, airlines won't price their tickets as high as they usually do during Christmas.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sat May 02, 2020 9:38 pm

acavpics wrote:
cpd wrote:
SpaceshipDC10 wrote:


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/air-ca ... -1.5551402

That's nice projection, but other questions such as how many people and how quickly will they be able to pay for such trips once it's possible to enter other countries again?


I think that is very optimistic. I can’t see flying returning to normal until at least half way through next year. We need a working vaccine first. That will make it safe enough to travel again and as a result of that restore confidence.

A third step is of course people having stable jobs so they can afford to travel.

And what if a vaccine cannot be found? After all, the "12-18 months" thing is just speculation, NOT a guarantee. Are we expected to live like this for an indefinite period of time?

Countries will absolutely HAVE to find a way to allow life to return to at least 90% normal even without a vaccine. Remdesivir has been qualified as a treatment for COVID-19, so that will help infected people seek treatment and be kept out of circulation.

Sure, travel will probably not return to December 2019 levels. But I do see that it could return at AT LEAST 75-80% of what it was then. People are going to get absolutely sick and tired of being cooped up at home at the end of the year. Also, by then, COVID-19 will likely have mutated into a less virulent/deadly form, making it just as lethal as lets say the seasonal flu.


The other factor is that, unfortunately, the great majority of the job losses most places are among those who didn’t have gobs of discretionary income to begin with. Doctors, bankers, etc. should mostly be in a financial spot where they can travel in 6 or 9 months.
 
mcg
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sat May 02, 2020 10:30 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
acavpics wrote:
cpd wrote:

I think that is very optimistic. I can’t see flying returning to normal until at least half way through next year. We need a working vaccine first. That will make it safe enough to travel again and as a result of that restore confidence.

A third step is of course people having stable jobs so they can afford to travel.

And what if a vaccine cannot be found? After all, the "12-18 months" thing is just speculation, NOT a guarantee. Are we expected to live like this for an indefinite period of time?

Countries will absolutely HAVE to find a way to allow life to return to at least 90% normal even without a vaccine. Remdesivir has been qualified as a treatment for COVID-19, so that will help infected people seek treatment and be kept out of circulation.

Sure, travel will probably not return to December 2019 levels. But I do see that it could return at AT LEAST 75-80% of what it was then. People are going to get absolutely sick and tired of being cooped up at home at the end of the year. Also, by then, COVID-19 will likely have mutated into a less virulent/deadly form, making it just as lethal as lets say the seasonal flu.


The other factor is that, unfortunately, the great majority of the job losses most places are among those who didn’t have gobs of discretionary income to begin with. Doctors, bankers, etc. should mostly be in a financial spot where they can travel in 6 or 9 months.


Speaking to a couple of docs, they've had a little income over the last 6 weeks. Note they are not ER or otherwise covid related docs and we are not in a heavily impacted area. Patients are simply unwilling to come see them. They've done a little tele medicine, but that doesn't really pay the bills.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sat May 02, 2020 10:40 pm

mcg wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
acavpics wrote:
And what if a vaccine cannot be found? After all, the "12-18 months" thing is just speculation, NOT a guarantee. Are we expected to live like this for an indefinite period of time?

Countries will absolutely HAVE to find a way to allow life to return to at least 90% normal even without a vaccine. Remdesivir has been qualified as a treatment for COVID-19, so that will help infected people seek treatment and be kept out of circulation.

Sure, travel will probably not return to December 2019 levels. But I do see that it could return at AT LEAST 75-80% of what it was then. People are going to get absolutely sick and tired of being cooped up at home at the end of the year. Also, by then, COVID-19 will likely have mutated into a less virulent/deadly form, making it just as lethal as lets say the seasonal flu.


The other factor is that, unfortunately, the great majority of the job losses most places are among those who didn’t have gobs of discretionary income to begin with. Doctors, bankers, etc. should mostly be in a financial spot where they can travel in 6 or 9 months.


Speaking to a couple of docs, they've had a little income over the last 6 weeks. Note they are not ER or otherwise covid related docs and we are not in a heavily impacted area. Patients are simply unwilling to come see them. They've done a little tele medicine, but that doesn't really pay the bills.


I expect most of us in professional services have had some short term pain; I certainly have. But sooner or later people need us.
 
CALMSP
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sat May 02, 2020 10:43 pm

I mean, he could be right.....flying to most with no pax and cargo only.
 
Edax
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sat May 02, 2020 11:16 pm

cpd wrote:
SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
An Air Canada vice president suggests that by the time winter holidays roll around again, Canadians will be able to board his company's planes and fly almost anywhere in the world.

But Tim Strauss said he knows that one of the biggest tasks involved in bringing air travel back to life after pandemic restrictions lift will be convincing the public it's safe to fly.

"I think by Christmas you will see a significant amount of flying again," said Strauss, vice president of cargo at Air Canada. "We'll be flying to most places around the world and certainly domestically."

There may be fewer flights available and more connections than travellers are used to, he added.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/air-ca ... -1.5551402

That's nice projection, but other questions such as how many people and how quickly will they be able to pay for such trips once it's possible to enter other countries again?


I think that is very optimistic. I can’t see flying returning to normal until at least half way through next year. We need a working vaccine first. That will make it safe enough to travel again and as a result of that restore confidence.

A third step is of course people having stable jobs so they can afford to travel.


I think flying can be made pretty safe. A test before departure can guarantee that no contagious people get on planes or in the airport. With the right measures in place the airport is a lot safer than public transport.

What I do see coming is that the world will get divided between safe zones an zones where corona is not yet under control. Airtraffic will at first be restricted to direct flights between safe zones. I do think the hub model will take a beating because people want to fly direct. That might take a long time to restore.

For me this has been the longest time I have been between flights in years. Apart from the nuisance of arranging things overseas without being able to go there I am also itching to go somewhere again. So I guess as soon as flying is possible again I’ll be on my way to the airport.
 
acavpics
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sat May 02, 2020 11:32 pm

Edax wrote:

I think flying can be made pretty safe. A test before departure can guarantee that no contagious people get on planes or in the airport. With the right measures in place the airport is a lot safer than public transport.

What I do see coming is that the world will get divided between safe zones an zones where corona is not yet under control. Airtraffic will at first be restricted to direct flights between safe zones. I do think the hub model will take a beating because people want to fly direct. That might take a long time to restore.



I'd expect by Christmas time that most developed regions in the world would have COVID under control, despite the fact that a vaccine still won't be available. Tourist spots are without doubt going to take extra precautions to mitigate the spread because their economies can't really afford to suffer a poor Christmas on top of a washed out summer.

But I don't really agree that airlines will ditch their hubs because as we've seen in the past, airlines tend to retreat to their hubs when in financial distress.
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 3:07 am

Keep in mind their Q1 2020 financials come out on Monday. These comments might be to provide their investors with some optimism.
 
Wingtips56
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 3:56 am

acavpics wrote:
SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
[
That's nice projection, but other questions such as how many people and how quickly will they be able to pay for such trips once it's possible to enter other countries again?


I'm sure that in order to sell more seats, airlines won't price their tickets as high as they usually do during Christmas.

Maybe, maybe not. If it's perceived (real or not) to be safe to fly, flights over the Holidays could end up being packed, with everyone seeing Grandma for Christmas because they couldn't on their summer vacation. Early deals, yes, but there could be a sudden demand later on, jacking up the prices. Then it will fall off again in January.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 4:05 am

cpd wrote:
We need a working vaccine first.


I know this is CivAv, but not only do we need a working vaccine, we need a few billion doses produced and distributed. The first part of that sentence might be a lengthy prospect, or if the team in Oxford pulls it off, maybe not. But the second part of that sentence is going to be...long. A million doses sounds like a lot. But you need eight thousand times that to get everyone in the world covered.

acavpics wrote:
I'd expect by Christmas time that most developed regions in the world would have COVID under control,


*laughs in American*
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 4:21 am

NWAESC wrote:
I like his optimism. Let’s hope he’s right.

Meanwhile, the CEO of Lufthansa sounds doomy as hell, in his letter to stockholders today, saying no return to a “ New Normal”, whatever that may be.” Until at least 2023.
https://worldairlinenews.com/

And to further drive that point home, Berkshire Hathaway announced they have sold all of the shares they held of United, Delta, Southwest, and American, completely abandoning the travel sector. https://twitter.com/i/events/1256755589696221184
 
PWA732
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 4:53 am

Christmas booking is half a year away. Things will change significantly in the next three months, as they have in the past three. You had better hope, for the entire Economy's sake that we have some form of "interim" solution firmly in place by Christmas.

Antibody research is advancing quickly as are "quick testing" procedures and the search for drugs to shorten the duration and intensity of the virus. These, combined with airport screening, or rapid testing may be all we have to work with in the next 12 months. We MUST find a way to make interim procedures work as an effective widely available vaccine is likely a year off, in fact it may never be found. 2021 is way too late for most in the industry, employees and companies alike.

Pete.
 
acavpics
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 5:18 am

PWA732 wrote:
Antibody research is advancing quickly as are "quick testing" procedures and the search for drugs to shorten the duration and intensity of the virus. These, combined with airport screening, or rapid testing may be all we have to work with in the next 12 months. We MUST find a way to make interim procedures work as an effective widely available vaccine is likely a year off, in fact it may never be found. 2021 is way too late for most in the industry, employees and companies alike.

Pete.


You stole the words right out of my mouth :D
 
SnowBros
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 6:51 am

I think he means most international routes will be open. What percentage of the traffic is back is another question.

We should keep in mind that we can't live like this forever. The governments cannot afford to support people forever. Now is the time that the governments/industry think about how we are going to adjust to this new normal, how we are going to assure the passenger confidence when the covid is contained/under control. We must act now and work in parallel b/c it will take time for consumers to get used to the new normal.
 
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seahawk
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 7:14 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
NWAESC wrote:
I like his optimism. Let’s hope he’s right.

Meanwhile, the CEO of Lufthansa sounds doomy as hell, in his letter to stockholders today, saying no return to a “ New Normal”, whatever that may be.” Until at least 2023.
https://worldairlinenews.com/

And to further drive that point home, Berkshire Hathaway announced they have sold all of the shares they held of United, Delta, Southwest, and American, completely abandoning the travel sector. https://twitter.com/i/events/1256755589696221184


They might not be talking about the same thing. LH talks about a return to something the resembles 2019, AC might just mean something where most flights are allowed to operate, maybe still with big limitations.
 
Aither
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 9:27 am

We can't compare what European carriers are saying with what other carriers are saying.

Crisis often accelerates past trends. Europe was following the path of becoming an under underdeveloped region economically speaking. Add to that the very strong environmental pressures in Europe plus the alternatives of using trains or cars safely. So even before the covid crisis, many were believing air travel would decline within Europe.
You see this with the bail out of Air France : the French government is now requesting the airline to stop all the short haul flights where the train is an alternative.
 
Armodeen
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 12:56 pm

In the majority of the world healthcare workers are salaried and haven't had their wages cut.

I don't doubt we will be flying again by Christmas, but a significantly reduced schedule and with lower load factors.

Personally I would probably take flights again by then.

mcg wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
acavpics wrote:
And what if a vaccine cannot be found? After all, the "12-18 months" thing is just speculation, NOT a guarantee. Are we expected to live like this for an indefinite period of time?

Countries will absolutely HAVE to find a way to allow life to return to at least 90% normal even without a vaccine. Remdesivir has been qualified as a treatment for COVID-19, so that will help infected people seek treatment and be kept out of circulation.

Sure, travel will probably not return to December 2019 levels. But I do see that it could return at AT LEAST 75-80% of what it was then. People are going to get absolutely sick and tired of being cooped up at home at the end of the year. Also, by then, COVID-19 will likely have mutated into a less virulent/deadly form, making it just as lethal as lets say the seasonal flu.


The other factor is that, unfortunately, the great majority of the job losses most places are among those who didn’t have gobs of discretionary income to begin with. Doctors, bankers, etc. should mostly be in a financial spot where they can travel in 6 or 9 months.


Speaking to a couple of docs, they've had a little income over the last 6 weeks. Note they are not ER or otherwise covid related docs and we are not in a heavily impacted area. Patients are simply unwilling to come see them. They've done a little tele medicine, but that doesn't really pay the bills.
 
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DL717
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 1:21 pm

Domestic travel will spring back pretty quickly in North America for larger airports. Small and medium will depend on how bad the recession is. International travel not so much.
 
beechnut
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 2:03 pm

I don't think he was predicting normal traffic levels by Christmas, only the *ability* to travel to most places by then. I expect load factors to be pretty miserable beyond that except lower deck cargo. I was scheduled to go to a meeting of the planning committee for a World Congress in Rome this November as I do every year, but the we postponed the 2021 edition of the Congress to 2022 (it's held every 4 years), and this year's planning meeting, until 2021. Being nearly 62 and diabetic, I am happy with that decision. Hopefully there'll be a vaccine by then or the pandemic will have burned itself out. I certainly have no plans to travel to anywhere besides the next village (where I go to get my groceries or go to the pharmacy or hardware store) for the rest of the year.

Beech
 
acavpics
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 2:08 pm

Armodeen wrote:
I

I don't doubt we will be flying again by Christmas, but a significantly reduced schedule and with lower load factors.

Personally I would probably take flights again by then.



I think the schedule will be reduced through October and maybe even November. But I do think that as we roll through December, airlines will reinstate a vast majority (not ALL) of the flights that they would normally have at the time. Domestic travel should be more or less back to what is should be.

As for long haul international travel, I airlines resuming most profitable routes that they previously had, but maybe with a little less capacity. For example, EK and BA might downsize some of their A380's to the 777/787/A350 for a while.
 
hooverman
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 2:18 pm

Aither wrote:
Europe was following the path of becoming an under underdeveloped region economically speaking.

Nonsense. What numbers are you using?
 
ltbewr
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 3:40 pm

International travel for AC, as for all airlines, will be very limited for well into 2021 as due to the lack of testing, health care, treatment, universal vaccination and politics especially with less developed countries.
 
Vicenza
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 4:23 pm

acavpics wrote:
cpd wrote:
SpaceshipDC10 wrote:


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/air-ca ... -1.5551402

That's nice projection, but other questions such as how many people and how quickly will they be able to pay for such trips once it's possible to enter other countries again?




Remdesivir has been qualified as a treatment for COVID-19, so that will help infected people seek treatment and be kept out of circulation.

.


No it has not. It is a possible treatment and is currently in a clinical trial......but that is a long way from being "qualified as a treatment for COVID-19"
 
Dupli
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Vicenza wrote:
acavpics wrote:
cpd wrote:



Remdesivir has been qualified as a treatment for COVID-19, so that will help infected people seek treatment and be kept out of circulation.

.


No it has not. It is a possible treatment and is currently in a clinical trial......but that is a long way from being "qualified as a treatment for COVID-19"


Besides, even if it works, how many doses is gilead able to produce? Probably not more than a couple of million this year.

AC is really optimistic. To give an example: China is quarantining everyone arriving from abroad for 2 weeks. If you get covid, there is a hefty medical cost for treatment (for non Americans; for Americans probably less than treatment at home). I don't think this will change until the virus is firmly under control.

Furthermore Christmas is close to the peak of flu season. Another reason travel could be restricted even if there has been progress on suppression or treatment.
 
multimark
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 5:53 pm

Wingtips56 wrote:
acavpics wrote:
SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
[
That's nice projection, but other questions such as how many people and how quickly will they be able to pay for such trips once it's possible to enter other countries again?


I'm sure that in order to sell more seats, airlines won't price their tickets as high as they usually do during Christmas.

Maybe, maybe not. If it's perceived (real or not) to be safe to fly, flights over the Holidays could end up being packed, with everyone seeing Grandma for Christmas because they couldn't on their summer vacation. Early deals, yes, but there could be a sudden demand later on, jacking up the prices. Then it will fall off again in January.


Actually a trip to visit grandparents might be the last thing to recover, as they are most vulnerable to Covid-19. On the other hand young couple or parents in their 30-40s with young kids should have no reason to fear going on a beach trip to Hawai'i. given the statistical risks.
 
PWA732
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 7:09 pm

You have to keep timelines in mind.

This virus has really only infected North America "in force" for 6 to 8 weeks or so. There is already a "flattening of the curve" in many areas. A lot can happen in the next 8 weeks, let alone the next 30 until Christmas. We are learning a lot about the viruses spread, and how to minimize its impact. Lock-downs are already being lifted in a lot of regions, while we are safeguarding the vulnerable who reside mostly in long term care facilities.

I think that those who are projecting "doom and gloom" into next year are being overly pessimistic. Lufthansa could be using an overly negative outlook to lever concessions from certain groups.

Pete.
 
acavpics
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 8:55 pm

Dupli wrote:
Vicenza wrote:
acavpics wrote:


No it has not. It is a possible treatment and is currently in a clinical trial......but that is a long way from being "qualified as a treatment for COVID-19"


Besides, even if it works, how many doses is gilead able to produce? Probably not more than a couple of million this year.

AC is really optimistic. To give an example: China is quarantining everyone arriving from abroad for 2 weeks. If you get covid, there is a hefty medical cost for treatment (for non Americans; for Americans probably less than treatment at home). I don't think this will change until the virus is firmly under control.

Furthermore Christmas is close to the peak of flu season. Another reason travel could be restricted even if there has been progress on suppression or treatment.

.


Who said that Gilead will be the only one producing this? If/when it is actually proven to work, other pharmaceutical companies will race to produce as much as they can, given that this is an emergency situation.

Christmas is still over 7 months away. That IS a lot of time to get this virus under control. As the numbers drop throughout the summer, most nations should be sufficiently equipped and knowledgeable to contain or otherwise suppress any additional outbreaks come fall.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 9:19 pm

Buena Suerte.
 
baje427
Posts: 954
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 10:33 pm

Maybe Christmas 2021.
 
ACA772LR
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:55 pm

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 10:42 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
PWA732 wrote:
You have to keep timelines in mind.

This virus has really only infected North America "in force" for 6 to 8 weeks or so. There is already a "flattening of the curve" in many areas. A lot can happen in the next 8 weeks, let alone the next 30 until Christmas. We are learning a lot about the viruses spread, and how to minimize its impact. Lock-downs are already being lifted in a lot of regions, while we are safeguarding the vulnerable who reside mostly in long term care facilities.

I think that those who are projecting "doom and gloom" into next year are being overly pessimistic. Lufthansa could be using an overly negative outlook to lever concessions from certain groups.

Pete.


I agree, no one really knows, besides I think AC is referring to flights being allowed to operate once border restrictions are lifted, not full flights
 
ramprat320
Posts: 65
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2015 8:17 pm

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 10:59 pm

Sadly it won’t be anytime soon enough.

AC has confirmed the retirement of 79 aircraft. All E190s, All 319s and All 767s are done.
 
9252fly
Posts: 1219
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:19 am

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 11:13 pm

ramprat320 wrote:
Sadly it won’t be anytime soon enough.

AC has confirmed the retirement of 79 aircraft. All E190s, All 319s and All 767s are done.


That's almost suggesting Rouge is done? It would seem the longer term replacement for the E190s and A319s is the A223. I read in March that AC has financing in place to continue taking A223s this year as planned. Rouge has a number of A321s and A320s which I would not be surprised to see going back to mainline, with the possibility of the latter being retired depending on cycles and hours. I recall a year of so ago that AC had structured Rouge that it and its fleet in the event of a crisis it could wind it down fast.
 
lowwkjax
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:52 am

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 11:19 pm

DocLightning wrote:

I know this is CivAv, but not only do we need a working vaccine, we need a few billion doses produced and distributed.


A few billion doses? Do you mean short term or long term? Keep in mind that the number of actual infections is proven to be much higher than the number of reported cases, most probably around 50 times higher. Do the math and you’ll find out that, at least short term, you’ll be far away from “billions of doses” that will be needed short term.
 
Vicenza
Posts: 406
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Sun May 03, 2020 11:50 pm

acavpics wrote:
Dupli wrote:
Vicenza wrote:

No it has not. It is a possible treatment and is currently in a clinical trial......but that is a long way from being "qualified as a treatment for COVID-19"


Besides, even if it works, how many doses is gilead able to produce? Probably not more than a couple of million this year.

AC is really optimistic. To give an example: China is quarantining everyone arriving from abroad for 2 weeks. If you get covid, there is a hefty medical cost for treatment (for non Americans; for Americans probably less than treatment at home). I don't think this will change until the virus is firmly under control.

Furthermore Christmas is close to the peak of flu season. Another reason travel could be restricted even if there has been progress on suppression or treatment.

.



Christmas is still over 7 months away. That IS a lot of time to get this virus under control. As the numbers drop throughout the summer, most nations should be sufficiently equipped and knowledgeable to contain or otherwise suppress any additional outbreaks come fall.


With all due respect, you seem very overly optimistic (approaching the point of being somewhat flippant) about what is completely unknown. Seven months is absolutely, and most certainly, not a lot of time to bring it 'under control' and there are way too many variables to make such a definitive statement. It may possibly be artificially contained (lockdowns, isolation etc) to some extent but that is a long way to being 'under control'.
 
codyul
Posts: 171
Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:43 pm

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Mon May 04, 2020 1:34 am

ramprat320 wrote:
Sadly it won’t be anytime soon enough.

AC has confirmed the retirement of 79 aircraft. All E190s, All 319s and All 767s are done.

Hey bud, I didn't see any internal doc saying that yet? Get me the missing link.
 
NickLAX
Posts: 294
Joined: Wed Jun 12, 2013 8:48 pm

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Mon May 04, 2020 2:15 am

Perspective from a 200k miles a year biz traveller (background in tech and aviation). Most of my contacts have backed out of face to face meetings till Sept. They are working and we've moved to video conf. Even as we get closer to normal work function they've already advised to "Plan no face to face meetings till 2021" - they just don't have the appetite to expose their staff to people from outside their regions for the foreseeable future.

I travelled a lot during the first Gulf War and after 9/11. This is unprecedented right now, even the cutdown in the first Gulf War was NOT entire route shutdowns it was frequency on international to bare bones on some routes and some carriers dropping where they had competition but you could go anywhere. Even post 9/11 you took capacity to 40% in the the first few weeks when flights were allowed, with 75% of normal within 3 months.
 
codyul
Posts: 171
Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:43 pm

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Mon May 04, 2020 2:23 am

ramprat320 wrote:
Sadly it won’t be anytime soon enough.

AC has confirmed the retirement of 79 aircraft. All E190s, All 319s and All 767s are done.

Yup I saw the leaked video now :/
 
Thomaas
Posts: 724
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:52 pm

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Mon May 04, 2020 4:57 am

9252fly wrote:
ramprat320 wrote:
Sadly it won’t be anytime soon enough.

AC has confirmed the retirement of 79 aircraft. All E190s, All 319s and All 767s are done.


That's almost suggesting Rouge is done? It would seem the longer term replacement for the E190s and A319s is the A223. I read in March that AC has financing in place to continue taking A223s this year as planned. Rouge has a number of A321s and A320s which I would not be surprised to see going back to mainline, with the possibility of the latter being retired depending on cycles and hours. I recall a year of so ago that AC had structured Rouge that it and its fleet in the event of a crisis it could wind it down fast.


Looking at current fleet numbers, retiring all those planes totals 92. Given that they also have to retire some A320s that are long in the tooth, I'd say that Rouge is likely keeping some A319s for the time being, especially when you consider the 737 MAX is still grounded.
 
blooc350
Posts: 223
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:10 pm

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Mon May 04, 2020 7:03 am

COVID will return for the winter. Helloooo it’s flu season. And when it does come back, it’ll probably be deadlier.
 
JibberJim
Posts: 208
Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:33 pm

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Mon May 04, 2020 8:13 am

multimark wrote:
Actually a trip to visit grandparents might be the last thing to recover, as they are most vulnerable to Covid-19. On the other hand young couple or parents in their 30-40s with young kids should have no reason to fear going on a beach trip to Hawai'i. given the statistical risks.


The difference is though that the holiday can be done any time, postponing it a year is not a big deal, the trip to see grandparents is the time limited one, and it will have been a long time since they've done it. I certainly won't be doing any holiday flying, I will be flying to see relations as soon as it's feasible.

As you say though, the risks mean that the grandparents will not be travelling, and the testing for infection needs to be absolutely secured so you know you're not taking it to grandma and little to no risk of quarantine upon the visit or return to make it viable as a holiday.
 
Sokes
Posts: 2773
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Mon May 04, 2020 9:48 am

"An example of a tea leaf reading showing a dog and a bird on the side of the cup."

Image
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasseography
 
ACA772LR
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:55 pm

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Mon May 04, 2020 1:26 pm

blooc350 wrote:
COVID will return for the winter. Helloooo it’s flu season. And when it does come back, it’ll probably be deadlier.


Source? even the experts don’t know this...
 
acavpics
Posts: 604
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:54 am

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Mon May 04, 2020 1:38 pm

blooc350 wrote:
COVID will return for the winter. Helloooo it’s flu season. And when it does come back, it’ll probably be deadlier.


Did the New York Post tell you that?
 
ACA772LR
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:55 pm

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

Mon May 04, 2020 1:50 pm

acavpics wrote:
blooc350 wrote:
COVID will return for the winter. Helloooo it’s flu season. And when it does come back, it’ll probably be deadlier.


Did the New York Post tell you that?


LOL

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