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enilria
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Re: Air Canada to Cut Capacity 75% July-September

Mon May 04, 2020 4:07 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
All airlines will follow and much more coming. Alot don't want to issue cancellations because that floods their refund department and kills their cash.

No one wants to get on a plane, all of 2020 until holiday Thanksgiving I think is lost. Business can't and won't do business travel and that is alot where the money is.

Thanksgiving? A holiday where you fly to see your parents and grandparents? You can delete that one more than any.

FROM THE ARTICLE
“We’re now living through the darkest period ever in the history of commercial aviation,” Chief Executive Officer Calin Rovinescu told analysts.
 
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Polot
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 4:09 pm

DLASFlyer wrote:
Are any of the 319s new enough to be picked up by other airlines? I know UA is adding used 319s, what about Delta?

A couple are <20 years old but most were delivered in the mid to late 90s. AC was a fairly early customer for the type and actually has one of the original A319 certification planes. They got rid of a bunch of their newer ones ~10 years ago when they were about 7-8 years old.

They will probably be scrapped, as airlines wanting to grow with used metal will likely be able to find newer post COVID.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 4:15 pm

Jetport wrote:
Any chance they get rid of Rogue entirely? I would think they could keep the Air Transat name which might work better since it hasn't been associated with Air Canada in the past. Lots of customers who flew on Rogue thought they were booking Air Canada and than got a nasty surprise. Customers have even lower expectations of Air Transat than Rogue, everyone expects no frills and and a crappy experience when they book an Air Transat ticket. Air Canada should keep the Air Transat name and lower service even more (if that is possible) to cut prices/costs and give a true European style ULCC experience.


If the Air Canada takeover of Air Transat goes through, I agree that a Air Transat/Rouge merger would be a high probability (perhaps renamed something like "Transat Rouge"?). Both are effectively grounded at this time, so the government will probably want to save as much of these two operations as possible (Jobs!) and a merger could be the way forward.

Here's their latest fleet statuses:

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Air-Canada-Rouge

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Air-Transat

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Air-Canada
 
airnorth
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Re: Air Canada to Cut Capacity 75% July-September

Mon May 04, 2020 4:16 pm

ACCS300 wrote:
One of the issues here in Canada is that we have inter-provincial travel restrictions. All provinces require a 14 day isolation even if travelling from another province so domestic travel is likely affected to a greater degree than in the US.


It must be a lot different in the States, though I am not sure, maybe someone can add to this, but it sure seems like business between states is still fairly brisk. I am only assuming this from FR24, but it sure seems like there are still many many flights between states, but I have no idea what the load factors are. Maybe the 14 days of self isolation does not apply within the States?

Flights between YXY and YVR have not only seen a huge reduction in frequency, and down grades in equipment, but loads as light as 4 passengers and 118 empty seats. It goes without saying but I doubt WestJet will be flying to YXY this summer.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Air Canada to Cut Capacity 75% July-September

Mon May 04, 2020 4:26 pm

Canada is taking a much more conservative approach to the restrictions surrounding covid-19, and people for the most part are on board with it. If there is a second spike, were finished, there won't be much left to recover, it's the only logical thing to do.

Also keep in mind, it's a lot easier to add flights if demand picks up and covid stays controlled than to subtract them and suffer heavy penalties.
 
chonetsao
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Re: Air Canada to Cut Capacity 75% July-September

Mon May 04, 2020 4:28 pm

well here are the few takes I have after reading the article:

1, The middle seat free is to end on 30th June at current plan. So the JUL-SEP Q3 capacity forecast does not consider the middle seat free.
2, The up to 75% in capacity slump is not real cut yet. Air Canada had not announced the capacity cut for JUL-SEP, but they are saying the worst scenario is to cut 75% of the capacity compare with 2019.
3, Air Canada expect to take 3 years to go back or near to 2019 level. I would read it as a possible 30-50-65-75-90% gradual recovery over 2020-2023(numbers are for illustration from me only, not actual forecast in any way). So we could be looking at 45% of capacity by Q4 or even 75% all depends on whether the recovery is L, V or U shaped (Please refer to HSBC interview on CNBC today to see what these three letters mean.)
4, It is still sad to come to realisation that the normal summer peak period won't be here in 2020. I know it is happening but emotionally, as aviation enthusiast, it is still very sad and I think I am still in mental denial. I still hope that Q3 we can see things picking up.
 
Whiteguy
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Re: Air Canada to Cut Capacity 75% July-September

Mon May 04, 2020 4:29 pm

ACCS300 wrote:
One of the issues here in Canada is that we have inter-provincial travel restrictions. All provinces require a 14 day isolation even if travelling from another province so domestic travel is likely affected to a greater degree than in the US.


Not all provinces have this restriction, Quebec and most eastern provinces have it. Ontario and west don’t have the restrictions, Manitoba recommends 14 day isolation but that’s it. A few of the territories have have restrictions.
 
beechnut
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 4:38 pm

I don't think it will be a Rouge (not Rogue!) Transat merger. If the deal for Transat goes through, and AC has not pronounced itself on that yet, I think Rouge will simply go rogue and get disbanded, with its fleet scattered to the four winds with possibly the A321s being of interest to Mainline, 5 were new-build CEOs delivered originally to Rouge, delivered in 2015-2016, the rest relatively late-build used, oldest 8.2 years old, newest being the ex-WOW birds, youngest 2 years old . Transat then becomes the LCC brand for AC. It has much higher brand reputation especially in Québec.

Beech
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Air Canada to Cut Capacity 75% July-September

Mon May 04, 2020 4:50 pm

enilria wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
All airlines will follow and much more coming. Alot don't want to issue cancellations because that floods their refund department and kills their cash.

No one wants to get on a plane, all of 2020 until holiday Thanksgiving I think is lost. Business can't and won't do business travel and that is alot where the money is.

Thanksgiving? A holiday where you fly to see your parents and grandparents? You can delete that one more than any.


Don't forget that Canadian Thanksgiving is about six weeks before U.S. Thanksgiving. :D

October 12 this year.
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 5:19 pm

beechnut wrote:
I don't think it will be a Rouge (not Rogue!) Transat merger. If the deal for Transat goes through, and AC has not pronounced itself on that yet, I think Rouge will simply go rogue and get disbanded, ... Transat then becomes the LCC brand for AC. It has much higher brand reputation especially in Québec.


For what it's worth, Transat's Q1 financials still saying the deal is going ahead, so you're probably not far off the mark.

https://www.transat.com/getmedia/1e76c1 ... h.pdf.aspx

Just to note, AC not needing to provide 100% refunds to passengers surely saved their cash position (before having to further draw down on additional loan facilities) for Q1. Their 'advanced passenger sales' liability was 2,614M, while their cash position was only 2,588M. Someone with more familiarity with AC's balance sheet might need to correct me here, but it looks like they've completely drawn down on their $800M revolving credit facilities during the quarter. Hopefully AC is looking for some additional loan facilities!
 
santi319
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Re: Air Canada to Cut Capacity 75% July-September

Mon May 04, 2020 5:23 pm

Meanwhile Carnival Cruises resumes ops on August 1st.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... me-cruises

So which one is it.. everyone stays home for the rest of the year or everyone takes their chances and continues life ?

Id say the latter based on the general vibe of the population (including those vulnerable ones)
 
Alias1024
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Re: Air Canada to Cut Capacity 75% July-September

Mon May 04, 2020 5:29 pm

ACCS300 wrote:
One of the issues here in Canada is that we have inter-provincial travel restrictions. All provinces require a 14 day isolation even if travelling from another province so domestic travel is likely affected to a greater degree than in the US.


Many states have similar restrictions. Some for all out of state visitors, some only from certain areas. Texas for example only applied the 14 day isolation to arrivals from certain states, but police met the inbound flights from those areas and collected forms from passengers stating where they would be self-isolating.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
Thomaas
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 5:32 pm

beechnut wrote:
I don't think it will be a Rouge (not Rogue!) Transat merger. If the deal for Transat goes through, and AC has not pronounced itself on that yet, I think Rouge will simply go rogue and get disbanded, with its fleet scattered to the four winds with possibly the A321s being of interest to Mainline, 5 were new-build CEOs delivered originally to Rouge, delivered in 2015-2016, the rest relatively late-build used, oldest 8.2 years old, newest being the ex-WOW birds, youngest 2 years old . Transat then becomes the LCC brand for AC. It has much higher brand reputation especially in Québec.

Beech


The issue with Transat is that their cost structure is too high to profitably fly leisure routes, as evidenced by their abysmal profitability as well as the growth of Rouge since its inception. At this point, Air Canada will either keep the lower-cost Rouge unit and rebrand it as Transat, or simply fold everything into mainline flying. With the new 737 MAX coming online, an extra inch in seat pitch and a PTV are the only differentiation between LCC configs and itself. The company will have to determine whether all costs associated with maintaining a separate LCC brand outweighs the benefits that a larger scale would afford the mainline carrier.
There's something to be said about being able to increase wide body utilization during winter season by flying them to leisure destinations instead of keeping them on the ground when TATL demand decreases considerably.

Ultimately any deal for Transat is unlikely to be consumed with the terms already agreed upon, with market conditions today being vastly different then they were at the time. Air Canada would be foolish to pay as much for Transat at a time when they should be conserving resources to weather this storm.
 
beechnut
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 6:32 pm

I also don't think the deal with Transat will go through on existing terms. And I suspect Transat shareholders will happily end up swallowing a bitter pill, instead of losing almost everything in a bankruptcy.

Beech
 
yzfElite
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 7:11 pm

The retirement of the entire 767 fleet to me signals three things: 1. That AC really doesn't see the return of much of Rouge's network in the near term; 2. That the Transat deal is likely to be completed, allowing AC to continue a leisure flying with a smaller fleet going forward; and, 3. You have to think this will likely mean AC could reduce its workforce considerably as well in the near term since it won't be flying 190/767 and for that matter Max 8 or 220 until the former are cleared to fly and the latter are delivered.

In some respects with the TS deal still to be completed, the Max 8 to be certified and the 220 to be delivered, AC may be in a decent position to ramp up with the economy which is going to probably take 3-5 years or more until it reaches 2019 levels..
 
codyul
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 7:28 pm

Thomaas wrote:
bmibaby737 wrote:
Air Canada actually has 16 A319s, with 3 of those configured for Air Canada Jetz. I doubt all of Rouge’s A319s would be retired, given that it brings the total to 82 aircraft. You also have to consider that Air Canada has to to retire a few A320s that will be pushing 30 years of service in the next few months. Some of them were being stored this winter in order to keep cycles down for the busy summer travel season.


Actually, I'm very positive that it DOES mean all of R319s and that the difference of 3 aircraft are the JETZ aircraft which will be kept for sports charters, etc.
And for the 320s, the previous plan had another 21 leaving the fleet in 2020. So there is potential for a total of 100 aircraft being retired. The 79 announced today, including all 767s M&R, all e190s M and all 319s M&R (minus the 3 JETZ). And potentially a further 21, the previously planned 320s.
YUL PNC :weightlifter:
 
dr1980
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Re: Air Canada to Cut Capacity 75% July-September

Mon May 04, 2020 7:30 pm

The E190 retirement doesn’t surprise me given it was on the way out anyway. I will miss it though, I spent a lot of time on it and always appreciated the 2x2 seating.

Retirement of the whole Rouge 767 on the other hand did surprise me, it speaks volumes to expectations around resumption of leisure flying. I guess they won’t need the capacity of multiple 767’s feeding cruise ship travel at FLL any time soon.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
All airlines will follow and much more coming. Alot don't want to issue cancellations because that floods their refund department and kills their cash.


Except in Canada where the airlines are issuing questionably valuable credits for future travel rather than giving refunds. I have an $1800 travel credit for a trip that was supposed to happen in June and no idea when I’ll be able to use it or what I’ll use it on. But I digress.
Dave/CYHZ
 
hollywoodcory
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 8:40 pm

Took a glance at some of their 767 routes in 2021 and noticed YYC-NRT has already been swapped to a 788.
 
Whiteguy
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 8:56 pm

hollywoodcory wrote:
Took a glance at some of their 767 routes in 2021 and noticed YYC-NRT has already been swapped to a 788.


Nothing has really been updated for next summer, and it doesn’t usually get done until end of the year. The 767s were planned to be gone by end of this year anyway and that’s why NRT was changed. There are still A319s shown on routes next summer.
 
Moosefire
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 9:30 pm

DLASFlyer wrote:
Are any of the 319s new enough to be picked up by other airlines? I know UA is adding used 319s, what about Delta?


Shirley you must be joking
MD-11F/C-17A Pilot
 
shoelessjoe
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 10:24 pm

So, if the B767 is gone this year that will mark 37 years of operations on the 767 at AC. I am thinking off-the-top of my head, has there been any type at AC operated for that length of time (I know for regional ops the DH8 is getting there and will surpass it) - however at mainline I can't think of another type operated for as long as the 767...
 
SpaceshipDC10
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 10:41 pm

shoelessjoe wrote:
So, if the B767 is gone this year that will mark 37 years of operations on the 767 at AC. I am thinking off-the-top of my head, has there been any type at AC operated for that length of time


The closest I can come to is the DC-9 with 36 years Jan 1966 - Jan 2002. The series 10 from 1966 and the series 30 the following year.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Air Canada to Cut Capacity 75% July-September

Mon May 04, 2020 11:15 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
All airlines will follow and much more coming. Alot don't want to issue cancellations because that floods their refund department and kills their cash.

No one wants to get on a plane, all of 2020 until holiday Thanksgiving I think is lost. Business can't and won't do business travel and that is alot where the money is.


Canadian or US Thanksgiving? Either way AC see the Q3 writing on the wall. I’m doubtful much will change until sometime in 2021. Some US states are in for a rude awakening in a few weeks after prematurely reopening just because a few people equate “freedom” with getting a haircut.

Quebec wants kids to go back to school next week. Most Quebecers think this is nuts.

shoelessjoe wrote:
So, if the B767 is gone this year that will mark 37 years of operations on the 767 at AC. I am thinking off-the-top of my head, has there been any type at AC operated for that length of time (I know for regional ops the DH8 is getting there and will surpass it) - however at mainline I can't think of another type operated for as long as the 767...


If AC Caego greatly increase their cargo ops permanently, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 763s soldier on as freighters like AC did with the DC-8s.
 
beechnut
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 11:20 pm

I'd have to check but I seem to recall at one point AC had DC-9s well over 30 years old flying (all retired by 2002). While of the 767s, all of the original -200s are long gone. Some A320s are getting up there too. I'd say the DC-9, 767 and A320s have been among AC's most successful aircraft fleets.

Beech
 
CXH
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 11:24 pm

raylee67 wrote:
The E190 can be eliminated immediately because they are not flying now anyway.


They have been flying. I see an E190 flying YHZ-YYZ right now. In the last two weeks, there have been daily YYZ-YYT and YYZ-YWG flights. And probably more I haven't noticed.

That said, I could see Sky Regional's E175 and Jazz's CRJ900 replacing some of these flights in the short term, until AC re-jigs the entire schedule to face the new reality.
I've seen the future, I can't afford it. - Martin Fry
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Mon May 04, 2020 11:47 pm

Jetport wrote:
enplaned wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
It amazes me how carriers quickly wanted to dump the E190. Despite the current demand environment. Maybe it is the cheapest thing to dump (write down the least amount of scarce money).


Rule of thumb - E190s have approximately the trip cost of an A319 with many fewer seats.

Yes, that's not good.


I find that hard to believe. If the E190 has essentially the same trip cost as the A319 how did they sell any at all?

Saying E190 has similar trip cost of an A319 is underestimating. For VA and CZ both are complaining they're as costly as operating a 738, but with only half of the seats available. CF34-10's rooftop maintenance is absolutely killing the life of E190.

Michael
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Tue May 05, 2020 12:13 am

DLASFlyer wrote:
Are any of the 319s new enough to be picked up by other airlines? I know UA is adding used 319s, what about Delta?

No one will be picking up second hand birds anytime soon when all airlines are essentially trying to survive.

DL also removed/removing some 200 narrowbody fleet within the next month, guess if they ever need these A319 or not.

Michael
 
PWA732
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Tue May 05, 2020 1:40 am

Well, to each their own. I'm 72 and retired, I have high blood pressure, and a family history of cardiovascular disease. I have had a great life, but it's heartbreaking to watch my son, layed-off from a "sun destination" airline lose his job. He and his family are suffering immensely both financially and psychologically. To watch his family suffer to add a few years to my life (on a "maybe" I'll get it or not) no thanks. They will be paying for this long after I'm gone. My opinion. That's all.

Pete.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

Tue May 05, 2020 1:58 am

IIRC 37 years w/o a fatal incident - what a tremendous safety record that speaks well of the Boeing Company and the AIr Canada crews that flew and maintained them
    300 319 320 321 707 717 720 727 72S 737 73S 734 735 73G 738 739 747 757 762 ARJ B11 C212 CRJ CR2 CR7 CR9 CV5 D8S DC9 D9S D94 D95 D10 DH8 DTO EMB EM2 E135 E145 E190 FH7 F28 F100 FTRIMTR HRN L10 L15 M80 M90 SF3 SWM YS11
     
    crosscheckyyz
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    Re: Air Canada to Cut Capacity 75% July-September

    Tue May 05, 2020 1:59 am

    Dominion301 wrote:

    shoelessjoe wrote:
    So, if the B767 is gone this year that will mark 37 years of operations on the 767 at AC. I am thinking off-the-top of my head, has there been any type at AC operated for that length of time (I know for regional ops the DH8 is getting there and will surpass it) - however at mainline I can't think of another type operated for as long as the 767...


    If AC Caego greatly increase their cargo ops permanently, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 763s soldier on as freighters like AC did with the DC-8s.


    Will AC Cargo want to invest the money to convert the 767s? Is it worth it for the frames?
     
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    VCVSpotter
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    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 2:05 am

    Here's the breakdown of the 79 retirements at Air Canada:
    Mainline:
    767 - 5
    A319 - 13
    E190 - 14
    Total: 32

    Rouge:
    767 - 25
    A319 - 22
    Total: 47

    Air Canada Jetz will keep their 3 A319s.

    Source: https://twitter.com/HowardSlutsken/stat ... 7064886272
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

    Just a normal teenager juggling AP classes and airplanes. No biggie • Love the 747 & 777-9 • Farewell BA/KL 744s
     
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    aemoreira1981
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    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 2:49 am

    bmibaby737 wrote:
    CAPTYXU wrote:
    Yes it includes Rouge


    That's a huge effect on Air Canada Rouge! According to Planespotters.net they have a fleet 66, which after the reductions would take them down to something like 19 A320/A321

    Air Canada currently have:

    13 A319
    5 B763
    14 E190

    Air Canada Rouge have:

    22 A319
    25 B763

    Which is the 79x aircraft


    Probably their ancient A320s as well. But Air Canada will need some narrow bodies until the MAX 8 flies again.
     
    billsalton92
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    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 3:18 am

    Thomaas wrote:
    bmibaby737 wrote:
    CAPTYXU wrote:
    Yes it includes Rouge


    That's a huge effect on Air Canada Rouge! According to Planespotters.net they have a fleet 66, which after the reductions would take them down to something like 19 A320/A321

    Air Canada currently have:

    13 A319
    5 B763
    14 E190

    Air Canada Rouge have:

    22 A319
    25 B763

    Which is the 79x aircraft

    Air Canada actually has 16 A319s, with 3 of those configured for Air Canada Jetz. I doubt all of Rouge’s A319s would be retired, given that it brings the total to 82 aircraft. You also have to consider that Air Canada has to to retire a few A320s that will be pushing 30 years of service in the next few months. Some of them were being stored this winter in order to keep cycles down for the busy summer travel season.


    25 A320s leaving the fleet. That is supposedly NOT part of the 79 announced today, but maybe someone can confirm that. All 767s between mainline and Rouge are leaving, along with several of the oldest 319s at a slow rate over the next 2 years from what it sounds like. The exit of the E190s was part of a deal with Boeing for further discounts on the Max 8 order, so it's been in the plans for a while now.

    Bill
     
    robsaw
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    Re: Air Canada to Cut Capacity 75% July-September

    Tue May 05, 2020 4:29 am

    santi319 wrote:
    Meanwhile Carnival Cruises resumes ops on August 1st.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... me-cruises

    So which one is it.. everyone stays home for the rest of the year or everyone takes their chances and continues life ?

    Id say the latter based on the general vibe of the population (including those vulnerable ones)


    Carnival is a bad example - that release was:

    - actually an EXTENSION to the previous suspension of operations until Aug 31, except for 8 ships leaving from US ports starting Aug 1, as part of a rolling-suspension:

    - April 13 - Carnival plans to resume operations June 27
    - Mar 30 - Carnival pauses operations until May 11
    - Mar 13 - Carnival pauses operations until April 10

    But this is about Air Canada, which obviously won't be flying cruise passengers for those ships until at least August.
     
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    FiscAutTecGarte
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    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 4:47 am

    I was so bullish on the E-190/195 more than a decade ago.... I just didn't expect the CF-34-10E to require so much extra care compared to the CF-34-8E of the 170/175. Then I learned that the 8 and the 10 are substantially different. Of course a 41% boost in thrust has to come at some cost to maintenance/durability. Even the ERJ1000 sticks with a variant of the 8 instead of going to the 10..

    Back to the topic... Those are staggering fleet reductions for Air Canada. Things are rough in Canada... I heard from a friend in Alberta last week, that in the entire province there are just two (2) oil rigs operating.. Wow.
    learning never stops...

    FischAutoTechGarten is the full handle and it reflects my interest. It's abbreviated to fit A.net short usernames.
     
    C172YT
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    Re: Air Canada to Cut Capacity 75% July-September

    Tue May 05, 2020 12:01 pm

    crosscheckyyz wrote:
    Will AC Cargo want to invest the money to convert the 767s? Is it worth it for the frames?

    From yesterday's Q1 earnings call, Air Canada doesn't intend to return to the full-freighter business in the foreseeable future.
     
    ExMilitaryEng
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    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 1:01 pm

    FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
    ...Even the ERJ1000 sticks with a variant of the 8 instead of going to the 10...
    You meant the CRJ-1000 right? It indeed sticked to the 8 variant.
     
    billsalton92
    Posts: 24
    Joined: Tue Mar 26, 2013 11:12 pm

    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 1:21 pm

    billsalton92 wrote:
    Thomaas wrote:
    bmibaby737 wrote:

    That's a huge effect on Air Canada Rouge! According to Planespotters.net they have a fleet 66, which after the reductions would take them down to something like 19 A320/A321

    Air Canada currently have:

    13 A319
    5 B763
    14 E190

    Air Canada Rouge have:

    22 A319
    25 B763

    Which is the 79x aircraft

    Air Canada actually has 16 A319s, with 3 of those configured for Air Canada Jetz. I doubt all of Rouge’s A319s would be retired, given that it brings the total to 82 aircraft. You also have to consider that Air Canada has to to retire a few A320s that will be pushing 30 years of service in the next few months. Some of them were being stored this winter in order to keep cycles down for the busy summer travel season.


    25 A320s leaving the fleet. That is supposedly NOT part of the 79 announced today, but maybe someone can confirm that. All 767s between mainline and Rouge are leaving, along with several of the oldest 319s at a slow rate over the next 2 years from what it sounds like. The exit of the E190s was part of a deal with Boeing for further discounts on the Max 8 order, so it's been in the plans for a while now.

    Bill


    Update to my last post: all 319s between mainline and Rouge are done effective immediately (minus JETZ). Hope everyone got their retrojet shots.

    Bill
     
    CX747
    Posts: 6245
    Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 2:17 pm

    raylee67 wrote:
    Whiteguy wrote:
    What do you think they’ve been doing with A220s and MAXs??


    Whatever AC's plan is for the MAX, they (and all other airlines) which have been knocking on Boeing's doors chasing Boeing on MAX deliveries will for sure not chase after Boeing any more. And imagine the horror for the airlines' CEOs if Boeing starts knocking on their doors a few months from now telling them the "good" news that the MAX that they have been chasing for so long will finally be delivered to them soon. :D


    Indeed, those will be interesting conversations!!!

    Best for Boeing to be a gentleman, work through each carriers concerns and build a better relationship with them due to the MAX and COVID issues.
    "History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
     
    berari
    Posts: 901
    Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:47 pm

    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 3:38 pm

    CX747 wrote:
    raylee67 wrote:
    Whiteguy wrote:
    What do you think they’ve been doing with A220s and MAXs??


    Whatever AC's plan is for the MAX, they (and all other airlines) which have been knocking on Boeing's doors chasing Boeing on MAX deliveries will for sure not chase after Boeing any more. And imagine the horror for the airlines' CEOs if Boeing starts knocking on their doors a few months from now telling them the "good" news that the MAX that they have been chasing for so long will finally be delivered to them soon. :D


    Indeed, those will be interesting conversations!!!

    Best for Boeing to be a gentleman, work through each carriers concerns and build a better relationship with them due to the MAX and COVID issues.


    Are there exit clauses that airlines can use to get out of impending MAX orders? The aircraft has been grounded for over a year, so could AC say no mas, and get out of the MAX deal for remaining aircraft?
     
    berari
    Posts: 901
    Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:47 pm

    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 3:40 pm

    Jetport wrote:
    Any chance they get rid of Rogue entirely? I would think they could keep the Air Transat name which might work better since it hasn't been associated with Air Canada in the past. Lots of customers who flew on Rogue thought they were booking Air Canada and than got a nasty surprise. Customers have even lower expectations of Air Transat than Rogue, everyone expects no frills and and a crappy experience when they book an Air Transat ticket. Air Canada should keep the Air Transat name and lower service even more (if that is possible) to cut prices/costs and give a true European style ULCC experience.


    If they say that Rouge will be a narrowbody airline, maybe they are going to maintain it, and TS' A321NEOs will go across the pond under the Rouge emblem.

    The "I got rouged' phase came and went so quickly, and if I recall, Rouge doubled in size since that phase. Rouge has been successful, despite in my opinion being inferior to TS product.
     
    JayinKitsap
    Posts: 2166
    Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 5:52 pm

    lightsaber wrote:
    CF-34-10 engine overhauls are expensive. Part of the reason JetBlue is replacing the type is engine maintenance costs:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... st-problem

    In today's dirt cheap fuel environment, maintenance costs really matter.

    Lightsaber


    I realize this is a tangent but what are your thoughts on the BUFF (B-52) re engine RFP. I posted the below in that thread the following:
    So on the BUFF the existing TF33-P-3 has 17,000 lbf (75.62 kN) thrust, weight of 4,605 lb, 53"D x 142" long.
    The replacements proposed are:

    GE Passport: 18,900 lbf thrust, weight of 3,950 lb, 52"D x 103" long.
    GE CF-34-10: 20,360 lbf thrust, weight of 3,760 lb, 53"D x 88.7" long.
    RR F130 (BR725) 16,900 lbf thrust, weight of 3,605 lb 50"D x 130" long.
    PW 800: 18,000 lbf thrust, weight of 3,190 lb 50"D x 130" long.

    So all are lighter than the current engine, the lightest saves 5,400 lb per aircraft. Do any of these engines have a real advantage over the competition?


    Your notation that the CF-34-10 is a high cost for maintenance engine, is there enough information to judge the Passport, it seems there are so few flying it would be hard to know yet whether this is a great, good, average, or a poor engine from an operational consideration.

    I've liked the Passport, but the PW 800 seems to be the one to beat on this project.
     
    Boof02671
    Posts: 1997
    Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 5:58 pm

    jeffrey0032j wrote:
    Guess Amazon and/or CAM will be interested in some of Rouge's 767s. More choice for them with AA and AC offloading their 767s.

    Jetran has already purchased AA’s 767 before they were even retired.
     
    HJM
    Posts: 77
    Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:05 pm

    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 6:10 pm

    It may be that MAX is staying, rouge will be narrow-body Airbus only, TS still in the works, A330 will operate where B767 used to be.
     
    User avatar
    keesje
    Posts: 13835
    Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 6:20 pm

    Air Canada's enthousiam for the 737MAX might have changed after the string of quality related disclosures on the MAX since march 2019.

    The A321XLR seems a perfects fit for Air Canada’s medium haul network / cargo requirements.

    In recent years they have been snooping up A321s from everywhere, despite their MAX commitement.

    Air Canada, Rouge, Transat have 44 now and no signals they want to let them go.

    If not for Covid-19, they might already have ordered more. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/air-c ... 2019-03-19
    "Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
     
    beechnut
    Posts: 924
    Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 12:27 am

    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 6:21 pm

    The TS deal is by no means a given, Air Canada has refused to comment pending regulatory approvals. But if I were AC... paying $18 a share for an airline now fully grounded and trading at only $8.50, in today's context of a depressed market for a long time, well that just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I figure they'll either renegotiate, or let the deal fall through, let TS fail, and pick up the pieces (aka good used aircraft like the A321LRs at depressed market prices). Of course the governments will probably pressure AC to work out some kind of deal "to save jobs", but dollars to donuts it won't be anywhere near the original $18 per share. Probably closer to the original offer (I think around $12? I forget). TS shareholders will probably realize it's that, or TS fails and they get pennies on the dollar if anything at all.

    So I don't think we can speculate too much on what happens to TS vs Rouge for the time being. Maybe the merger will go through and it will be rebranded "Bleu" ;) and will concentrate on the Québec leisure market.

    As for the A320s, I think they're here for a while until the MAX issue is settled. The older ones are quietly parked saving cycles and hours, and ready to be re-deployed if the MAX fiasco drags on. That will buy them some time to scrounge up newer aircraft, probably in a buyer's market.

    Beech
     
    beechnut
    Posts: 924
    Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 12:27 am

    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 6:49 pm

    keesje wrote:
    Air Canada's enthousiam for the 737MAX might have changed after the string of quality related disclosures on the MAX since march 2019.


    The statement about the MAX in AC's quarterly update was very terse. No mention of continued commitment to the MAX, just that the return-to-service is "uncertain". Reading between the lines, I think it means that AC's patience has limits and that they may be fast approaching. Les Ailes du Québec earlier this year reported that if there was no RTS by June, AC would have to seek an alternate plan as its backup plan (extending leases, buying capacity elsewhere, keeping older aircraft) was only good until the end of the year. By then some of the back-up capacity would be ready for major overhauls, or have run out of cycles. Then the pandemic hit.

    Of course the pandemic gives some breathing room. The older aircraft are on the ground, not accumulating hours or cycles, so if flying starts to pick up again at the end of the year, the contingency plan could theoretically be extended another 6 months in normal conditions, or a full year or more in a depressed market. Right now cash is king at AC, they can afford to sit on their hands and see how things shake down.

    I myself am skeptical of the MAX RTS, and equally skeptical of AC sticking with it in the long run. If I were AC I'd go forward with the A220 deliveries (a modern aircraft in every way), and at best defer the undelivered MAXs indefinitely. Everyone else is deferring orders. But then again, I may be wrong. My ex-wife happily keeps pointing this out to me...

    Beech
     
    airnorth
    Posts: 452
    Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 7:30 am

    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 8:07 pm

    Here are some options, or scenarios and maybe they have been discussed.
    If Rouge is shut down permanently some of their narrowbody fleet has a lot of life left to replace some of the really old AC mainline fleet of 320's. It looks like the Rouge fleet of 14 321's are all fairly new, with at least 20 years left in them, and the Rouge fleet of 4 320's all have a good 12 to 15 years left in them, so that would replace 18 of the 27 very old mainline fleet of 320's. The remaining AC main line fleet of 320's are about 17 years old, so they have at least 10 years left. That is a 25% reduction in mainline fleet for the 320 family, which almost lines up perfectly with what some "experts" are saying the new reality will be for the next 3 years. This is all without the MAX coming back online. Seems like if Rouge folds, and if AC uses those newer Rouge birds, and if the traffic is expected to stay low for the next three years, AC should be looking good in the short term.
     
    codyul
    Posts: 107
    Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:43 pm

    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 8:44 pm

    Today on a web conference for employees, Calin spoke about the MAX. He said that at this point, what last year was a curse, has turned into a blessing, speaking of their grounding. But specifically to the question as to why AC are still keeping it in its plans for recovery, he mentioned how the 24 in the fleet already were paid cash. That's a big investment that they would not back out of and lose millions, just because it isn't a favorite. Also he said that if it returns, it will be safe and that it had proved itself regards reliability and being environmentally economical. He said they were not ready to easily give up on it, but that only the future would determine the ultimate outcome.
    Calin speaks very frankly and my vibe was that he certainly did not want to do anything except keep, at least, the 24 that are owned and in the fleet. I also think he would take the total order, now at 50, because much of the compensation from Boeing was in the form of price reduction for the future aircraft.
    YUL PNC :weightlifter:
     
    codyul
    Posts: 107
    Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:43 pm

    Re: Air Canada announced for Q1 2020 a $1.05B loss + retirement of 79 older aircraft

    Tue May 05, 2020 8:48 pm

    People who recognize me on this forum, know that I wish the MAX were dropped and an order for 321neo and additional 223s were added. But ^^that's^^ the vibe I got from Calin's comments.
    YUL PNC :weightlifter:

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