You are absolutely right in that regard. I also think when the A321s get delivered, we will be far from the current economic crisis. My overall point was that right now and for the foreseeable future, market fragmentation is dead. We will more than likely see airlines bring back certain flights, (CDG flying for example) but in a very different format. Rather than using 3 seperate 757/A321s on the route from three seperate airports, we will see consolidation into one CDG route, with one 787, that serves the market maybe three times a week. So where we used to see BOS-CDG, EWR-CDG and IAD-CDG, we may now see just EWR-CDG and that be flown 3 times a week. Less crew, less fuel and an attempt to maximize passenger loads. That trickle down effect could see three 737 flights replaced with 1 A321 and 3 E-190 flights replaced with 1 737 flight.
I'm not sure how that would work in practice though. My airport of choice for international travel is BOS. If I needed to get to CDG I'm not sure I'd expose myself to the road journey to EWR or a 2nd flight BOS-EWR to get to CDG. I'd prefer to wait for a once weekly CDG-BOS if the real concern is building up pax load to get a 787 full. BOS may still find with light loads they are better off just serving BOS-CDG with narrow body.
They may very well indeed do that BUT it leads to additional aircraft, crews, landing fees etc. In essence you need two crew of three pilots to get you from EWR/BOS-CDG. You will probably see a reduced BOS-EWR pattern. I'm just spitballing but maybe two daily BOS-EWR flights with a 737. 1000 and 1600. That lines you up for the 2200 EWR-LHR either way you slice it.
I completely understand not wanting to connect...I think that will actually see less competition occur. UA will dominate EWR but lose out at MIA, where AA truly becomes king of the roost. Airlines just won't have the finances to offer the flights and connections like before.
Slight deviation, before the crisis trying to get from EWR to Florida destinations was very easy and non-stop with United. It was next to impossible with AA as everything connected somewhere else. So, in that regard, I bet we see almost no presence at EWR for AA as things open up. Under great conditions, they couldn't or didn't want to make NJ-FL flights work. Why would they try to do it now?
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower