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ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Wed May 06, 2020 7:43 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
How did a thread about a quarterly report stating that AS has the reserves to survive more then a year without an improvement in the present situation shift so quickly to merger assumptions? Are people thinking that AS is daft enougufh to be wanting to buy?


To be fair, it's not like it takes that much to tip this place into merger speculation and that's when things are normal.

Just my humble opinion, but I don’t see any mergers happening.
With the inevitable huge draw downs, and more importantly, the large new pilot surplus that goes with it, I see numerous opportunities for new entrants.

While the US majors have provisions in their purchase agreements that planes they offload can never be used in the US again (aka the Western Pacific Effect), there are going to be TONS of aircraft available cheap, all over the world.

Cheap planes, cheap pilots, and opportunities...


That will all depend on timing of course. And it's not like cheap assets and desperate employees automatically mean new opportunities. With the exception of Breeze, which already had a some of the startup groundwork in place when this happened, any erstwhile entrants will need at least a few more years to go through all the necessary regulatory and operational processes before starting up. For all we know, by the time that happens the incumbent airlines could be recovered enough to fight off new challengers or maybe the public health or economic picture is still shaky enough that there isn't enough space for a new airline to grow into. And that's assuming that you can find investors in that timeframe willing to invest the requisite billions in a new carrier.

I suppose it's no secret that I'm rather bearish on the idea of new scheduled passenger airline startups in this country. Depending on how you want to measure it, the last real trailblazing startup, the last case of actually leveraging an innovative business model into something viable in the long term was either B6 or NK's transition to the ULCC model. If I were an investor and someone came to me with a plan centered around reinventing the wheel with cheap planes and labor, I'd just go home.
 
Abeam79
Posts: 325
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Wed May 06, 2020 9:55 pm

Sure, so that explains why WN became the largest carrier in Washington/Baltimore by a few million passengers a year. And product matters less than price, schedule, and network.[/quote]

BWI not the northeast, thats midatlantic, and they had zero competition after taking over, look and see how well they do in large metro areas competing with all the majors and LCC's, they don't fare out so well.
 
DLASFlyer
Posts: 121
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:06 pm

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Thu May 07, 2020 12:56 am

Photos of a 12 year old ex-AS A320 being scrapped at Marana: https://twitter.com/JLeeRed1/status/1250605336240611328

Does not bode well for the rest of the Alaska Airbus AC being returned to lessors.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Thu May 07, 2020 1:42 am

DLASFlyer wrote:
Photos of a 12 year old ex-AS A320 being scrapped at Marana: https://twitter.com/JLeeRed1/status/1250605336240611328

Does not bode well for the rest of the Alaska Airbus AC being returned to lessors.

Check the date of that Marana flight. Think this was already discussed several weeks ago.
 
umichman
Posts: 133
Joined: Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:42 am

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Thu May 07, 2020 3:59 am

DLASFlyer wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
DOJ won’t allow anymore mergers. There are too few airlines as is. The current crisis doesn’t change anything. There will be no mergers now or in the near future.


How are there too few airlines?

Exhibit A:
American
United
Delta
Southwest
JetBlue
Alaska
Spirit
Frontier
Allegiant
Hawaiian
Sun Country


+1. Any new airline merger proposals will be evaluated based on historical precedents which largely involve market overlap. Trying to simply argue "there are too few airlines" would be unprecedented and would be very unlikely to survive a challenge in court. A merger between the legacy 3 with each other or with WN would likely draw a lot of scrutiny due to overall marketplace domination. But mergers of the smaller players with each other (and a merger between a major and one of the smaller players if there is not significant market overlap) would not likely survive a court challenge if blocked.
 
Flflyer83
Posts: 52
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:40 pm

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Thu May 07, 2020 4:08 am

Abeam79 wrote:
Sure, so that explains why WN became the largest carrier in Washington/Baltimore by a few million passengers a year. And product matters less than price, schedule, and network.


BWI not the northeast, thats midatlantic, and they had zero competition after taking over, look and see how well they do in large metro areas competing with all the majors and LCC's, they don't fare out so well.[/quote]

They do pretty well at LAX, MDW, HOU, DAL, DEN, OAK, etc., etc., etc. They carry more domestic passengers than any other airline, so...
 
alfa164
Posts: 3514
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:47 am

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Thu May 07, 2020 4:21 am

Flflyer83 wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:
ScottB wrote:
Sure, so that explains why WN became the largest carrier in Washington/Baltimore by a few million passengers a year. And product matters less than price, schedule, and network.

BWI not the northeast, thats midatlantic, and they had zero competition after taking over, look and see how well they do in large metro areas competing with all the majors and LCC's, they don't fare out so well.

They do pretty well at LAX, MDW, HOU, DAL, DEN, OAK, etc., etc., etc. They carry more domestic passengers than any other airline, so...


The quote you are dismissing began with this post:

Abeam79 wrote:
B6 won’t be taken over by wn, I keep saying this. WN already can’t hack their product in the northeast, then taking over B6 will just siphon their customers to delta and united. Not for nothing but people in the markets B6 serves really are loyal to B6, and wn is just plain crap in their view.



The airports you cite are neither in the northeast, nor are they in strong B6 markets. The argument you missed was that B6 would not be a good takeover target for WN because of their weak showings when they tried to penetrate those markets previously.

No doubt Southwest is a formidable competitor, and may very well come out as the strongest of the "Big 4" airlines in the USA as air travel recovers.... but for the purpose of this discussion, that still doesn't make B6 and WN a marriage made in heaven.
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3583
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Thu May 07, 2020 5:58 am

hiflyeras wrote:
Sad times indeed. AS has the advantage of a flexible fleet of Q400 to A321 and 737-9 to right-size routes. They have little exposure to cuts in international flying like the big 3. Hard to say if mid and transcon flights will return to past levels but, on the west coast from SAN to ANC, AS will always top dog.


You must mean 737-900 & add the 737-800 as well. Thye cannot operate any 737-9 series. They are still grounded.
 
USAirKid
Posts: 623
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:42 am

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Thu May 07, 2020 6:48 am

rbavfan wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Sad times indeed. AS has the advantage of a flexible fleet of Q400 to A321 and 737-9 to right-size routes. They have little exposure to cuts in international flying like the big 3. Hard to say if mid and transcon flights will return to past levels but, on the west coast from SAN to ANC, AS will always top dog.


You must mean 737-900 & add the 737-800 as well. Thye cannot operate any 737-9 series. They are still grounded.


AS also doesn’t currently own any 737-9s. The maxes were grounded before AS took their first one.
 
onwFan
Posts: 433
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Thu May 07, 2020 1:55 pm

umichman wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
DOJ won’t allow anymore mergers. There are too few airlines as is. The current crisis doesn’t change anything. There will be no mergers now or in the near future.


How are there too few airlines?

Exhibit A:
American
United
Delta
Southwest
JetBlue
Alaska
Spirit
Frontier
Allegiant
Hawaiian
Sun Country


+1. Any new airline merger proposals will be evaluated based on historical precedents which largely involve market overlap. Trying to simply argue "there are too few airlines" would be unprecedented and would be very unlikely to survive a challenge in court. A merger between the legacy 3 with each other or with WN would likely draw a lot of scrutiny due to overall marketplace domination. But mergers of the smaller players with each other (and a merger between a major and one of the smaller players if there is not significant market overlap) would not likely survive a court challenge if blocked.

+1. In the words of the CEOs themselves, airlines are going to go back to the basics. Even the big3s might end up getting much smaller and unable to fight alone. The way things are headed, consolidation is a given, especially in view of the fact that airlines are going to be loss making for quite some time into the future...
 
sirloin
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 12:13 pm

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Thu May 07, 2020 2:30 pm

Folks, the poster clearly meant the 737-900/900ER. 737-9 was just shorthand.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2227
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Thu May 07, 2020 3:30 pm

sirloin wrote:
Folks, the poster clearly meant the 737-900/900ER. 737-9 was just shorthand.


Thanks...yes was referring to any derivative of the 739's. To my knowledge, AS still operates both the 900 and the 900ER. I wasn't aware of any grounding of all of the -900's...I don't believe they've broken it down specifically other than the 319's and some 320's as to what's been parked. Their website says they have 12 -900's and 79 -900ER's. I attended the rollout in Renton of the launch of the very first -900...an exciting day for AS! Turned out to be a not the best decision...oh well! ;-)
 
DLASFlyer
Posts: 121
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:06 pm

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Thu May 07, 2020 3:48 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
Photos of a 12 year old ex-AS A320 being scrapped at Marana: https://twitter.com/JLeeRed1/status/1250605336240611328

Does not bode well for the rest of the Alaska Airbus AC being returned to lessors.

Check the date of that Marana flight. Think this was already discussed several weeks ago.


I'm aware of the date. The point stands that the lessor being unable to find a new operator earlier in the year does not bode well for the rest of the ex-VX fleet now.
 
BigPlaneGuy13
Posts: 56
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:01 am

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Thu May 07, 2020 4:26 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
sirloin wrote:
Folks, the poster clearly meant the 737-900/900ER. 737-9 was just shorthand.


Thanks...yes was referring to any derivative of the 739's. To my knowledge, AS still operates both the 900 and the 900ER. I wasn't aware of any grounding of all of the -900's...I don't believe they've broken it down specifically other than the 319's and some 320's as to what's been parked. Their website says they have 12 -900's and 79 -900ER's. I attended the rollout in Renton of the launch of the very first -900...an exciting day for AS! Turned out to be a not the best decision...oh well! ;-)


Can confirm, both the 900 and 900ERs are still flying about the system today. Interestingly, the 321NEOs are also still flying around as of this morning. But for the most part AS has downgauged a lot of its flying to its Embraers it appears.
 
gmcc
Posts: 336
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2006 3:54 am

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

Thu May 07, 2020 6:10 pm

BigPlaneGuy13 wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
sirloin wrote:
Folks, the poster clearly meant the 737-900/900ER. 737-9 was just shorthand.


Thanks...yes was referring to any derivative of the 739's. To my knowledge, AS still operates both the 900 and the 900ER. I wasn't aware of any grounding of all of the -900's...I don't believe they've broken it down specifically other than the 319's and some 320's as to what's been parked. Their website says they have 12 -900's and 79 -900ER's. I attended the rollout in Renton of the launch of the very first -900...an exciting day for AS! Turned out to be a not the best decision...oh well! ;-)


Can confirm, both the 900 and 900ERs are still flying about the system today. Interestingly, the 321NEOs are also still flying around as of this morning. But for the most part AS has downgauged a lot of its flying to its Embraers it appears.


For AS in general larger jet better CASM and more physical space to put belly cargo in.It should also be note that several 320s are still flying mid con and Mexico routes.

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