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crownvic
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Virgin and the 747...

Tue May 05, 2020 9:07 pm

So with the announcement today that Virgin is finished with their 747's what happens to a city like Orlando which had 5-6 747 visits a day?. I realize that it will never be the same again at least not in the forseeable future, but there was an article in the Orlando Senitnel that the Brits are still itching to come back to Orlando as soon as possible and that despite what is happening now in Great Britain some still have money saved for that Florida dream vacation...Is it possible they may reinstate them down the road?
 
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VCVSpotter
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Re: Virgin and the 747...

Tue May 05, 2020 9:13 pm

I know exactly what you mean about Orlando, during last summer I saw 5 747s come in on one day to my delight. I highly doubt they'll be brought back as the press release was clear that they would be retired, I would guess about 5 or maybe even less A330s. Leisure travel, despite all of those Brits wanting to go to Florida, will still take some time to build back up. I think that for now A330s would suffice, though I don't know what will happen later down the road in 5+ years.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Just a normal teenager juggling AP classes and airplanes. No biggie • Love the 747 & 777-9 • Farewell BA/KL 744s
 
oldJoe
Posts: 185
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:04 pm

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Tue May 05, 2020 9:18 pm

crownvic wrote:
So with the announcement today that Virgin is finished with their 747's what happens to a city like Orlando which had 5-6 747 visits a day?. I realize that it will never be the same again at least not in the forseeable future, but there was an article in the Orlando Senitnel that the Brits are still itching to come back to Orlando as soon as possible and that despite what is happening now in Great Britain some still have money saved for that Florida dream vacation...Is it possible they may reinstate them down the road?


No ! Keep in mind the UK have now the highest number of COVID19 deaths in Europe !
I think a survival mode is actually more important than travel to Orlando !?
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8027
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Tue May 05, 2020 9:23 pm

I expect A333s and 787-9s will do fine. I'm not sure VS needs to spend a lot of time at the moment on a five-year fleet plan.
 
TC957
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Joined: Wed May 23, 2012 1:12 pm

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Tue May 05, 2020 9:59 pm

MCO will likely get the higher-density A350's regularly once VS get them.
 
KFTG
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Re: Virgin and the 747...

Tue May 05, 2020 10:02 pm

MCO getting the high-density A350-1000 (the 747-400 replacement) was always the plan. The plan has just been accelerated.
 
FlyerTalkUserNa
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Re: Virgin and the 747...

Tue May 05, 2020 10:42 pm

Just hoping the GLA flight makes a return at some point.
 
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JannEejit
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Re: Virgin and the 747...

Tue May 05, 2020 11:01 pm

FlyerTalkUserNa wrote:
Just hoping the GLA flight makes a return at some point.


Well if it doesn't there's a lot of people going to need bussed to MAN. Forward bookings are strong, I gather.
 
777Mech
Posts: 958
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Re: Virgin and the 747...

Tue May 05, 2020 11:05 pm

oldJoe wrote:
crownvic wrote:
So with the announcement today that Virgin is finished with their 747's what happens to a city like Orlando which had 5-6 747 visits a day?. I realize that it will never be the same again at least not in the forseeable future, but there was an article in the Orlando Senitnel that the Brits are still itching to come back to Orlando as soon as possible and that despite what is happening now in Great Britain some still have money saved for that Florida dream vacation...Is it possible they may reinstate them down the road?


No ! Keep in mind the UK have now the highest number of COVID19 deaths in Europe !
I think a survival mode is actually more important than travel to Orlando !?


Calm down. Seriously. He asked about reinstating them later on.
 
jfk777
Posts: 7353
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Tue May 05, 2020 11:10 pm

A sad day at Virgin since the 747 had so much to do with their founding at Gatwick and growth at Heathrow. It was the first plane for them to LAX, JFK and Tokyo. A340 were not quite as exciting. Long may Virgin fly with or without Delta.
 
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flee
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Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 2:48 am

I think Virgin Atlantic has taken some positive steps to survive. Right now - and maybe for the rest of 2020 - the UK is on the US travel ban list. As such traffic from the UK to US is likely to be limited to non-existent. However, for the future, the A350-1000 will replace the B747-400 - if the route is restarted before deliveries, the A330s would probably fill the role as the fleet will not be as highly utilised as before Covid-19.
 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1398
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Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 7:41 am

crownvic wrote:
So with the announcement today that Virgin is finished with their 747's what happens to a city like Orlando which had 5-6 747 visits a day?. I realize that it will never be the same again at least not in the forseeable future, but there was an article in the Orlando Senitnel that the Brits are still itching to come back to Orlando as soon as possible and that despite what is happening now in Great Britain some still have money saved for that Florida dream vacation...Is it possible they may reinstate them down the road?


I think the 747's are now done for good. A330's followed by A350's once the higher density versions are delivered 2021/22 is the best MCO can expect once the UK is removed from the current COVID-19 travel ban list.

As an aside, it's a pity the current predicament means there won't be an opportunity to do something special to mark the 747's departure from the VS fleet. They've been a feature since day one.
 
OMAAbound
Posts: 217
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Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 8:38 am

The 747’s to MCO were so low yielding, that without them going full, or 90%, they struggled to make any money. Only 14 Upper Seats are hardly going to turn much profit, when the majority of people are looking to ‘jut get there’ in economy.

I’d say going forward, Virgin won’t send any aircraft to MCO, let alone an A330 or a return of a 747.

Just my 10 cents

OMAA
 
caaardiff
Posts: 203
Joined: Sat Jul 15, 2006 3:14 am

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 8:42 am

Once things return to normal how will Virgin Holidays get their customers to MCO?
If they can send 5 747s during the peak I can't imagine the Tour Operator arm filling thousands of seats on rival carriers.
 
jomur
Posts: 353
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:36 pm

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 8:46 am

oldJoe wrote:
crownvic wrote:
So with the announcement today that Virgin is finished with their 747's what happens to a city like Orlando which had 5-6 747 visits a day?. I realize that it will never be the same again at least not in the forseeable future, but there was an article in the Orlando Senitnel that the Brits are still itching to come back to Orlando as soon as possible and that despite what is happening now in Great Britain some still have money saved for that Florida dream vacation...Is it possible they may reinstate them down the road?


No ! Keep in mind the UK have now the highest number of COVID19 deaths in Europe !
I think a survival mode is actually more important than travel to Orlando !?

Without going off topic but its the way things are reported that make a huge difference in numbers.. the UK puts down as Covid19 any deaths that have been or suspected of having it whereas other countries put down the original ailment regardless of the person having Covid19.
 
jomur
Posts: 353
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:36 pm

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 8:49 am

OMAAbound wrote:
The 747’s to MCO were so low yielding, that without them going full, or 90%, they struggled to make any money. Only 14 Upper Seats are hardly going to turn much profit, when the majority of people are looking to ‘jut get there’ in economy.

I’d say going forward, Virgin won’t send any aircraft to MCO, let alone an A330 or a return of a 747.

Just my 10 cents

OMAA


If Virgin don't fly any aircraft to MCO it would go bankrupt very quickly as they can not afford to refund those who have already been cancelled let alone all the other advance bookings they have.
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 1127
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 10:27 am

OMAAbound wrote:
I’d say going forward, Virgin won’t send any aircraft to MCO, let alone an A330 or a return of a 747.


I’d be very surprised if VS disappeared from MCO - I was anticipating they would use a leisure configured A350 from MAN and LHR.

Kudos if your prediction is correct!
 
APYu
Posts: 515
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2007 10:23 pm

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 10:32 am

DobboDobbo wrote:
OMAAbound wrote:
I’d say going forward, Virgin won’t send any aircraft to MCO, let alone an A330 or a return of a 747.


I’d be very surprised if VS disappeared from MCO - I was anticipating they would use a leisure configured A350 from MAN and LHR.

Kudos if your prediction is correct!


When US travel restrictions end there’ll be a daily LHR MCO flight and probably a second on some days, using slots currently used for destinations with multiple frequencies which won’t be needed for a few years.

Virgin ho,idays is being trimmed by 15%, if Orlando was being canned this figure would be MUCH higher.
We'd like to welcome in particular our Executive Club members and those joining us from our Oneworld alliance partners.
 
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LTU330
Posts: 257
Joined: Sun Jun 05, 2005 4:40 pm

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 10:56 am

jomur wrote:
oldJoe wrote:
crownvic wrote:
So with the announcement today that Virgin is finished with their 747's what happens to a city like Orlando which had 5-6 747 visits a day?. I realize that it will never be the same again at least not in the forseeable future, but there was an article in the Orlando Senitnel that the Brits are still itching to come back to Orlando as soon as possible and that despite what is happening now in Great Britain some still have money saved for that Florida dream vacation...Is it possible they may reinstate them down the road?


No ! Keep in mind the UK have now the highest number of COVID19 deaths in Europe !
I think a survival mode is actually more important than travel to Orlando !?

Without going off topic but its the way things are reported that make a huge difference in numbers.. the UK puts down as Covid19 any deaths that have been or suspected of having it whereas other countries put down the original ailment regardless of the person having Covid19.


I imagine that as they are pulling out of LGW completely, but keeping the Slots, then it is likely that the MCO route will be re-instated eventually. As for your comment on the reporting of Covid-19. Sorry, but that's complete BS. The UK only started including deaths outside of hospitals a week ago, and the ONS figures for the "abnormally high death rates" have not been included in any figures so far. Many Countries have always included were Covid-19 is even suspected. Anyway, let's hope Virgin pulls through this. I don't ever see them operating MCO out of LHR, and it will be very interesting to see what happens with MAN in the long term. I bet Norwegian can't believe their luck (if they also pull thorough) with BA also toying with the idea of leaving LGW.
 
jfk777
Posts: 7353
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 11:04 am

The beach fleet 744 had only 14 Upper class seats but about 50 premium economy seats. a different market than JFK or LAX but not the dog some male out to be. What airline would send 5 744 a day to a city not making $$ ?
 
TC957
Posts: 3809
Joined: Wed May 23, 2012 1:12 pm

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 11:19 am

OMAAbound wrote:
The 747’s to MCO were so low yielding, that without them going full, or 90%, they struggled to make any money. Only 14 Upper Seats are hardly going to turn much profit, when the majority of people are looking to ‘jut get there’ in economy.

I’d say going forward, Virgin won’t send any aircraft to MCO, let alone an A330 or a return of a 747.

Just my 10 cents

OMAA

Really ? have you seen what the fares were especially in peak summer season ? Often PE on some US routes was less than standard Y to MCO.
 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1398
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:44 am

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 11:32 am

jfk777 wrote:
The beach fleet 744 had only 14 Upper class seats but about 50 premium economy seats. a different market than JFK or LAX but not the dog some male out to be. What airline would send 5 744 a day to a city not making $$ ?


Indeed. The config was 14 Upper, 66 PE and 375 Y. PE is a popular cabin and prices are normally double that of Y. I know this isn't reflective of all year round, however the last few times I've flown MAN-MCO they have all been outside the school holiday period and the 747's were over 90% full. On one flight, nearly every seat was occupied. I also see lots of reports of FC members travelling to MCO going via ATL etc. because they can't get any reward seats in Upper or PE on the direct flights. Clearly they wouldn't make reward seats available if VS could sell it instead to somebody paying with money and clearly they wouldn't have ordered as many A350's as they have to replace the 747's if it was low yielding and they can't profitably fill the plane - something that should theoretically be easier on an A350 anyway compared to a 747-400.

LTU330 wrote:
I don't ever see them operating MCO out of LHR, and it will be very interesting to see what happens with MAN in the long term.


I do. Last year they had up to 3 flights operating LGW-MCO. Combined with the immediate withdrawal from LGW, I would say MCO is too big of a market for both VS and Virgin Holidays to turn their backs on if their London ops are consolidated at LHR for the foreseeable future. I suspect MCO will be safe, albeit with less frequencies in the short-term. There's a few slots already available with EWR permanently cancelled and GRU launch aborted, plus I suspect they may also reduce the multiple frequencies to JFK and other places to reflect weakened demand in the short-term. It's probably one reason why they decided to withdraw from LGW as there will probably be enough slots available to serve the LGW destinations from LHR.

As for MAN, I did fear we would be back to the early-2000's when it was a solitary MCO route (anybody remember the two 747-200's VS sold to Air Atlanta and leased back specifically for this route?) or worse a total withdrawal, but after yesterday's announcement it was good to see a commitment to the MAN market. There is a Clubhouse due to open this year, one major competitor in the MAN-US market is not around anymore and I saw last week the DEL route launching in October on a seasonal basis is now going to be a year-round route, so if VS do survive they're going to have a good go at it.

What will be interesting is how long it will be before they ever return to LGW given they're holding on to the slots. I presume they will be leased out in the meantime.
 
simonriat
Posts: 169
Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2010 8:03 pm

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 12:20 pm

Well that was lucky for us then. And a big thank you to all a netters, who helped my family choose.

Last Marchish, I came on here to ask for our trip to Orlando, in October (2019), which we should choose. Virgin 747 upper deck, or Tui 787. We chose the 744 upper deck. Looks like that experience will never be repeated again.

Once the UK is back flying again properly, it will be interesting to see numbers from the UK returning to the USA. I wonder how much Trumps handling / comments on the crisis, has hindered tourism?
 
jomur
Posts: 353
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:36 pm

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 3:09 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
The beach fleet 744 had only 14 Upper class seats but about 50 premium economy seats. a different market than JFK or LAX but not the dog some male out to be. What airline would send 5 744 a day to a city not making $$ ?


Indeed. The config was 14 Upper, 66 PE and 375 Y. PE is a popular cabin and prices are normally double that of Y. I know this isn't reflective of all year round, however the last few times I've flown MAN-MCO they have all been outside the school holiday period and the 747's were over 90% full. On one flight, nearly every seat was occupied. I also see lots of reports of FC members travelling to MCO going via ATL etc. because they can't get any reward seats in Upper or PE on the direct flights. Clearly they wouldn't make reward seats available if VS could sell it instead to somebody paying with money and clearly they wouldn't have ordered as many A350's as they have to replace the 747's if it was low yielding and they can't profitably fill the plane - something that should theoretically be easier on an A350 anyway compared to a 747-400.

LTU330 wrote:
I don't ever see them operating MCO out of LHR, and it will be very interesting to see what happens with MAN in the long term.


I do. Last year they had up to 3 flights operating LGW-MCO. Combined with the immediate withdrawal from LGW, I would say MCO is too big of a market for both VS and Virgin Holidays to turn their backs on if their London ops are consolidated at LHR for the foreseeable future. I suspect MCO will be safe, albeit with less frequencies in the short-term. There's a few slots already available with EWR permanently cancelled and GRU launch aborted, plus I suspect they may also reduce the multiple frequencies to JFK and other places to reflect weakened demand in the short-term. It's probably one reason why they decided to withdraw from LGW as there will probably be enough slots available to serve the LGW destinations from LHR.

As for MAN, I did fear we would be back to the early-2000's when it was a solitary MCO route (anybody remember the two 747-200's VS sold to Air Atlanta and leased back specifically for this route?) or worse a total withdrawal, but after yesterday's announcement it was good to see a commitment to the MAN market. There is a Clubhouse due to open this year, one major competitor in the MAN-US market is not around anymore and I saw last week the DEL route launching in October on a seasonal basis is now going to be a year-round route, so if VS do survive they're going to have a good go at it.

What will be interesting is how long it will be before they ever return to LGW given they're holding on to the slots. I presume they will be leased out in the meantime.


So who would be interested in leasing slots when its highly likely they would be able to get slots free from the airport itself considering Norwegian would be in the same situation re slots as they are not due to fly again from LGW until April '21 at the earliest if the survive that long. And BA would have slots to lease out/give back as well.
 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1398
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:44 am

Re: Virgin and the 747...

Wed May 06, 2020 4:00 pm

simonriat wrote:
Well that was lucky for us then. And a big thank you to all a netters, who helped my family choose.

Last Marchish, I came on here to ask for our trip to Orlando, in October (2019), which we should choose. Virgin 747 upper deck, or Tui 787. We chose the 744 upper deck. Looks like that experience will never be repeated again.

Once the UK is back flying again properly, it will be interesting to see numbers from the UK returning to the USA. I wonder how much Trumps handling / comments on the crisis, has hindered tourism?


Glad you enjoyed the 747 experience. Agreed about the upper deck, the 'bubble' is a nice cabin to travel in and on VS you were usually one of the first off before the rest of Economy downstairs thanks to the front half of the upper deck having PE seats and the stairs being by door L2 that was typically used for boarding/alighting from experience.

I suspect British folk will be keen to return to the USA once it's safe to do so. How quickly that recovers will obviously depend how long the UK remains on the travel ban list along with Ireland and other European nations. In the case of Florida, it will also depend when the parks reopen. I don't really know how Disney, Universal etc. intend to manage crowds when it comes to social distancing and I guess it won't be as simple as capping how many people are allowed in at a time.

jomur wrote:
So who would be interested in leasing slots when its highly likely they would be able to get slots free from the airport itself considering Norwegian would be in the same situation re slots as they are not due to fly again from LGW until April '21 at the earliest if the survive that long. And BA would have slots to lease out/give back as well.


I don't really know how it works and how much LGW charge if taken directly from them, but I guess it will depend how lucrative the slots are in terms of timings. I only mentioned leasing slots out as an option if some sort of "use it or lose it" rule is imposed.

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