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wjcandee
Posts: 8984
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:11 am

Spacepope wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
KFTG wrote:
The entire 764 fleet are great candidates for freighter conversion. Boeing has already studied the idea.

I doubt there's any variant that Boeing hasn't studied as such.

The question is: who'd pay for a conversion program for such a small number of aircraft, the majority of which are nearly 20yrs-old and heavily used.


I don't think age and use have much to do with it anymore. CAM has converted 763s with well over 100,000 hours on them already and age-wise they are operating line number 17.


And Line Number 6 (N740AX)!

How many pilots can say they regularly fly a single-digit line number of any model of transport category aircraft?
 
UA444
Posts: 2997
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Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:48 am

wjcandee wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
I doubt there's any variant that Boeing hasn't studied as such.

The question is: who'd pay for a conversion program for such a small number of aircraft, the majority of which are nearly 20yrs-old and heavily used.


I don't think age and use have much to do with it anymore. CAM has converted 763s with well over 100,000 hours on them already and age-wise they are operating line number 17.


And Line Number 6 (N740AX)!

How many pilots can say they regularly fly a single-digit line number of any model of transport category aircraft?

UA has a few of the early 777s (2-5, 7) and used to have 8 and 9. Also NH has line number 7 of the 787
 
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DLHAM
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Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:46 am

bfitzflyer wrote:
DL just redid the interiors on the 764 fleet, so I doubt they would retire, but we are in uncharted territory.


They did with the 777 as well -- but anyways I think that the 767-400s will stay because they are not too large and should be quite efficient / low CASM. Perfect for shorter longhaul flying (to Europe and South America).
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BrianDromey
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Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:59 am

Why does every thread descend into a DL-based discussion, or every discussion uses DL as a baseline case? There are other airlines!

The 764 and 753 are attractive on a CSAM basis and operated by DL and UA as part of the larger 757/767 fleets (with various contractual pilot groups). I think the draw-down of the 752 and 763 would make the 753/764 fairly small fleets at both airlines. So much the advantages of lower CSAM will be lost in the context of a small fleet. UA and DL both have alternative options with their 787 and A330 fleets. Travel will take a while to recover, by the time it does the 764 and 753 would already have replacements being linked up.

For Condor the future is less clear - they probably cannot afford to undertake a large-scale replacement of their 753/763 fleet. An A321/330 mix would seem suitable, however. The A330 does work in short-haul/high density configuration, but has a lot of seats in an all Y configuration. (See Jet2, Air Asia X, for example). The 739/787 could also work - but the 787 is very heavy for intra-europeans short haul. TUI UK do use 2 or 3 frames each summer this way, however.

Icelandair? Well the 757 seems perfect for them - again the 753 drawdown will be secondary to 757 withdrawal.
 
AndoAv8R
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Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:56 pm

I would assume United is planning on keeping the 753s possibly as long as until the Boeing NMA gets launched(assuming it does)? Seems like the 753 is the only 757 United is flying into Denver that ive noticed, and with Delta the primary 752s Ive seen flying overhead have been the are the last ones delivered (N821-823DX) and the ex TWA/NW birds.
 
wjcandee
Posts: 8984
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Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:25 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
Why does every thread descend into a DL-based discussion, or every discussion uses DL as a baseline case? There are other airlines!


You are correct. Which of those fly the 767-400 again?

Seriously, though, people like to talk about DL because it has for many years been the best-run US airline. Even people who hate it, and employees of other carriers kind of have to admit that.

People overestimate the value of fleet commonality at a certain point. If you have 20 of some kind of widebody, that's a big enough fleet that having more than that be common has diminishing returns.

Among other things, fleet commonality means fleet non-optimality, because all markets don't have the same loads or potential loads.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8099
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Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:33 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
Why does every thread descend into a DL-based discussion, or every discussion uses DL as a baseline case? There are other airlines!


Why? DL is a pretty good baseline case:

- it's not politically constrained to buy A or B (you know who those carriers are)

- it's had the free cash flow the past five years to buy pretty much whatever it wants (unlike Condor)

- the DL+NW merger is sufficiently distant in the past that it's been able to develop its own fleet strategy, not being stuck with previous commitments

- it's big enough - without the fragmented fleets and work forces of LH Group, AFKL, or IAG - to get economies of scale across multiple types in the same seating capacity range

- it's big enough (with FedEx) to drive a market for 757 parts for a long time. Icelandair's (to use an example) use of two 753s and four 767s is indicative of nothing.

UA is another good example, and can be a great source of contrast with Delta. (You can spend a lot of electrons trying to explain why UA went 787 and DL went with 359/339.) This is a 764 and 753 thread. DL and UA account for all 764s and the majority of 753s in operation.
 
United1
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Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:05 pm

AndoAv8R wrote:
I would assume United is planning on keeping the 753s possibly as long as until the Boeing NMA gets launched(assuming it does)? Seems like the 753 is the only 757 United is flying into Denver that ive noticed, and with Delta the primary 752s Ive seen flying overhead have been the are the last ones delivered (N821-823DX) and the ex TWA/NW birds.


I can’t tell you about DEN specifically but UA does have about half the 753s in service right now as well as 10 or so 752s. UA significantly increased flying today so it will be interesting to see if they pulled any more 757s out of storage.

The 764 fleet remains parked in ROW.
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TonyClifton
Posts: 233
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:25 pm

Assuming the 767-400 is a 30 year jet, it’s coming into its final decade. Add in the fact international isn’t planned to rebound until 2023/24, you’ve cut away almost half of that decade. Totally new interior and exterior adds up as well. In a different world, one of DL or UA could easily absorb the others fleet, but for a lack of international travel, deferred 330neo/787s make more sense building towards the future. In a world without 9/11, DL would have had around 40 767-400s... :( If only!

If you could flip a switch and get those planes up to spec, it could work to replace the oldest 763s, but it’s still on a timeline.
Last edited by TonyClifton on Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
randomdude83
Posts: 53
Joined: Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:52 pm

Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:26 pm

why can't airlines just trade fleets? Delta's 10 77L for 21 764s from UA?
Or American's a330 for Delta's 777 fleet?
 
ItnStln
Posts: 130
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:47 pm

Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:33 pm

randomdude83 wrote:
why can't airlines just trade fleets? Delta's 10 77L for 21 764s from UA?
Or American's a330 for Delta's 777 fleet?

That would be beneficial to both parties, but I doubt it would happen.
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 233
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:37 pm

randomdude83 wrote:
why can't airlines just trade fleets? Delta's 10 77L for 21 764s from UA?
Or American's a330 for Delta's 777 fleet?

As nice as that would be, the American 330 fleet wouldn’t do much for Delta. The PW powered -300s are nearly 30, older than the oldest pm-NW 330. The -200s have more life left in them, but are Trent powered, while the non Neo Delta fleet is PW and GE. If you really wanted commonality, you could have Delta grab the Virgin 330 fleet which is a mix of PW and RR and you might get a critical mass worth flying.

772LRs at United is intriguing indeed. Already have the GE-90-11x family, and a large pilot/part pool.
 
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aemoreira1981
Posts: 3586
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Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:02 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
global1 wrote:
Maybe Delta would be interested in UA's 764's? Assuming they could get them dirt cheap. They are of no use to anyone other than Delta. Would freight haulers be interested?


I suppose DL could replace its oldest 763s - to the extent it needs intercon capacity - with UA 764s. What kind of transaction price would be necessary vs. the many A330Neos on order would be an interesting study. IMHO every DL widebody delivery that can be deferred without significant penalty for the next 24 months will be deferred.

I don't see the existence of few 753/764 as being the problem; that's always been the condition. Eliminating either doesn't eliminate a pilot work group unless you retire all the 752 or 763 at the same time - which is close to crazy talk. (AA's example isn't instructive: AA is farther along with 757/763 fleet replacement.) The question is the utility of 753/764 to specific needs of DL and UA.


Delta has some B763s north of 120,000 hours though (the oldest one is likely at or over 130,000 hours, which means less than 20,000 hours left until it's out of hours). The UA B764s could definitely replace the oldest B763s.
 
FlyingMSY
Posts: 23
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:06 pm

Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:11 pm

Speaking of 753s, D-ABOP and OR of Condor have been been in MZJ for storage for some time now according to planespotters.net. Any idea of these will be picked up by either UA or DL? As far as I know these are the only 753s without a place in the fleet now.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:24 pm

FlyingMSY wrote:
Speaking of 753s, D-ABOP and OR of Condor have been been in MZJ for storage for some time now according to planespotters.net. Any idea of these will be picked up by either UA or DL? As far as I know these are the only 753s without a place in the fleet now.


Both frames are owned currently by Boeing. They or FI could strike a lease deal.
 
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AirKevin
Posts: 619
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:18 am

Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:50 pm

FlyingMSY wrote:
Speaking of 753s, D-ABOP and OR of Condor have been been in MZJ for storage for some time now according to planespotters.net. Any idea of these will be picked up by either UA or DL? As far as I know these are the only 753s without a place in the fleet now.

Don't think Delta would, given that their 757s have Pratt & Whitney engines, whereas these two would have Rolls-Royce engines.
Captain Kevin
 
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aemoreira1981
Posts: 3586
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Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:12 pm

AirKevin wrote:
FlyingMSY wrote:
Speaking of 753s, D-ABOP and OR of Condor have been been in MZJ for storage for some time now according to planespotters.net. Any idea of these will be picked up by either UA or DL? As far as I know these are the only 753s without a place in the fleet now.

Don't think Delta would, given that their 757s have Pratt & Whitney engines, whereas these two would have Rolls-Royce engines.


FI could use that lift in the future. Right now, most of their assets are owned unencumbered, except for their freighter B752s, one B763, and their grounded MAX fleet.
 
n7371f
Posts: 1830
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: 753 and 764 Survival

Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:34 am

DL is currently in the middle of the process of overhauling "midlife" interiors on the 764. DL marketing really likes this aircraft into LHR.

DLHAM wrote:
bfitzflyer wrote:
DL just redid the interiors on the 764 fleet, so I doubt they would retire, but we are in uncharted territory.


They did with the 777 as well -- but anyways I think that the 767-400s will stay because they are not too large and should be quite efficient / low CASM. Perfect for shorter longhaul flying (to Europe and South America).

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