marcelh wrote:flee wrote:marcelh wrote:That “gone” will at least be 10-15 years from now. Also AC (After COVID19) there are enough routes to fill an A380 profitably. Not for their current fleet, but that was already planned.
A lot will depend on the price of oil - it will be gone quicker than 10 years if oil rises above USD 150 but it may stick around much longer than 10 years if oil prices are nearer USD 50.
Oil prices above USD 150 will mean there is something serious going on with oil production. In a “normal” world, the oil price won’t rise that high.
This could happen due to the actual pandemic though. The longer low demand will last the greater is the chance of high Oil prices in the middle of the decade. A lot of oil producers can not switch their wells just on and off. If there is no money made, the fields will get closed and you can not just reopen them. Then the jobs are gone the companies are gone and when demand picks up again, it will take a lot of time to restart production.
On top of that, massive producers like Iran and Venezuela are excluded from the market. This could lead to a big dependency on Saudi Arabia and Russia and they could, through OPEC, make the prices almost as high as they want.
Governments will not have enough resources to keep the producers in Europe and North America artificially alive, so they will fall first. Especially US-Oil is expensive to produce and right now producers are bleeding cash. If this goes on for a while there will be a high oil prize in the future, especially after the current storage is emptied and demand is bigger than production.