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KFLLCFII
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 12:00 am

Simple solution to fly an A380 to capacity in the post-COVID 19 world...

Let everyone wear the oxygen masks full-time.
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
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Vio
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 1:05 am

"Sir"... I laugh every time someone uses that... Grown men with titles that are as outdated as those that bestow them.
Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
 
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AirIndia
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 5:12 am

dtw2hyd wrote:

EK's cash burn rate is way higher than any other airline in the world, with all leased/financed planes and a 400:1 bloated employee plane ratio.


employee / plane ratio is more like 222:1 based on 60K employees for 270 planes.....
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 10:57 am

AirIndia wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

EK's cash burn rate is way higher than any other airline in the world, with all leased/financed planes and a 400:1 bloated employee plane ratio.


employee / plane ratio is more like 222:1 based on 60K employees for 270 planes.....


There are 46K dnata employees, probably 30K in Dubai even if you takeout dnata foreign subsidiaries.

Like others said in the past you don't need 1 person doing the job with 4 onlookers.

Brings back another important question. Is banked hub yet another failed strategy of the Sir?

BTW, what are these 106K people doing? Are they getting paid monthly salary or just quarantine and food? Are they allowed to leave the country or no exit visa? Hope to see some leaked vlogs very soon about the living conditions.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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AirIndia
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 2:08 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:

BTW, what are these 106K people doing? Are they getting paid monthly salary or just quarantine and food? Are they allowed to leave the country or no exit visa? Hope to see some leaked vlogs very soon about the living conditions.

Exit visas was never a thing in Dubai. Anyone who can leave UAE is being allowed as long as the destination country borders are open. A lot of Indian tourists and visitors and expats were stranded and are now being repatriated back.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 2:15 pm

flee wrote:
The finance community have made their own assessments - if it was not viable for them, EK and STC would not have gotten the financing deals for their A380s. For EK, the A380 clearly worked for them and they have very few problems filling them. Lets see whether they can still fill them post Covid-19.

The financial community knows that EK is owned by the Dubai sovereign wealth fund so if push came to shove they know they would be paid. It's really the only reason why you can picture EK still being able to accept delivery of A380s once it became clear they had nil for resale value and the production line was closing.

flee wrote:
Yes, the slot congestion problem was not great enough to demand such high capacity aircraft.

And that was the major fubar of the A380 program. There was a market for some VLAs, but not a big enough market to support a clean sheet VLA with factories spread around EU in a politically balanced way, custom ships transferring cargoes to barges floating parts to trucks on closed roads through villages in the middle of the night, etc.

flee wrote:
I cannot help feeling that an A380-900 with Trent XWB engines would give pretty good CASM/CASK.

That would improve the cost side of the equation, but make the yield side worse.

Vio wrote:
"Sir"... I laugh every time someone uses that... Grown men with titles that are as outdated as those that bestow them.

I agree.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 2:32 pm

AirIndia wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

BTW, what are these 106K people doing? Are they getting paid monthly salary or just quarantine and food? Are they allowed to leave the country or no exit visa? Hope to see some leaked vlogs very soon about the living conditions.

Exit visas was never a thing in Dubai. Anyone who can leave UAE is being allowed as long as the destination country borders are open. A lot of Indian tourists and visitors and expats were stranded and are now being repatriated back.


That is a great non-answer answer. My question is not about tourists. Let me rephrase my question.

Are expat pilots and cabin crew are getting full pay? Can they withdraw from their bank accounts? Can they leave the country at will?
All posts are just opinions.
 
Vladex
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 2:58 pm

Vio wrote:
"Sir"... I laugh every time someone uses that... Grown men with titles that are as outdated as those that bestow them.


You don't want to start this , I mean Captain is a military term...
 
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PW100
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 4:05 pm

Vio wrote:
"Sir"... I laugh every time someone uses that... Grown men with titles that are as outdated as those that bestow them.


Would people who use the word "bestow" understand the meaning of outdated . . . ?
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 5:00 pm

2 years from now do we know which airlines still plan to have the 380 in their fleet?

Emirates and who else?
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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BlueSky1976
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 5:12 pm

chonetsao wrote:

B747 is the Queen of the Sky, do you mind?


I do, actually. Queen is dead. B747 IS the Whale of the Sky. Beer keg sitting on top of the plank. At least A380s wings are gracious...
The queen of the skies is dead.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 5:12 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
2 years from now do we know which airlines still plan to have the 380 in their fleet?

Emirates and who else?

SQ and QF already had cabin refresh programs in place when COVID-19 hit, so I think they are the most likely.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
marcelh
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 5:26 pm

Revelation wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
2 years from now do we know which airlines still plan to have the 380 in their fleet?

Emirates and who else?

SQ and QF already had cabin refresh programs in place when COVID-19 hit, so I think they are the most likely.

I can't see Lufthansa grounding their entire A380 fleet post COVID.
 
skipness1E
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 9:19 pm

Vio wrote:
"Sir"... I laugh every time someone uses that... Grown men with titles that are as outdated as those that bestow them.

Like “President Bush” or “President Obama” you say? Good point, well made.
 
directorguy
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Wed May 13, 2020 9:23 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
AirIndia wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

BTW, what are these 106K people doing? Are they getting paid monthly salary or just quarantine and food? Are they allowed to leave the country or no exit visa? Hope to see some leaked vlogs very soon about the living conditions.

Exit visas was never a thing in Dubai. Anyone who can leave UAE is being allowed as long as the destination country borders are open. A lot of Indian tourists and visitors and expats were stranded and are now being repatriated back.


That is a great non-answer answer. My question is not about tourists. Let me rephrase my question.

Are expat pilots and cabin crew are getting full pay? Can they withdraw from their bank accounts? Can they leave the country at will?


No, pilot and cabin crew are not getting full pay. They are obviously not flying, so no travel allowances, per diems etc. They rely on basic salary, which have been cut 25-50%. In the UAE, employee salaries have two components-basic salary, and "allowances" (living expenses, transportation, skills, etc.). No crew (flight deck or cabin) have been let go. Sir Tim Clark, for example, is taking a 100% basic salary cut, but is almost certainly being paid his allowances. He has a nice end-of-service paycheck coming his way soon as well.
Banking services are operating normally, and there are no restrictions on who leaves-provided they can find a flight to a country that will accept them.
 
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AirIndia
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu May 14, 2020 4:32 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
AirIndia wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

BTW, what are these 106K people doing? Are they getting paid monthly salary or just quarantine and food? Are they allowed to leave the country or no exit visa? Hope to see some leaked vlogs very soon about the living conditions.

Exit visas was never a thing in Dubai. Anyone who can leave UAE is being allowed as long as the destination country borders are open. A lot of Indian tourists and visitors and expats were stranded and are now being repatriated back.


That is a great non-answer answer. My question is not about tourists. Let me rephrase my question.

Are expat pilots and cabin crew are getting full pay? Can they withdraw from their bank accounts? Can they leave the country at will?


As directorguy has already mentioned there is a pay-cut in place 25-50% depending on grade. This is applicable to only basic salary so the allowances are as normal. There is no restriction on taking money out from the banks.

Among non aviation sectors there are various options ranging from unpaid leave to reduced working hours for a period of 3 months till June. What happens post June is something that keeps many up at night!
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu May 14, 2020 12:37 pm

The infection rate across the middle east including UAE looks like its in the exponential phase at this time. So now they have to contend with if people would want to travel through the area as well as risk of origin and destination.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu May 14, 2020 1:21 pm

directorguy wrote:
No, pilot and cabin crew are not getting full pay. They are obviously not flying, so no travel allowances, per diems etc. They rely on basic salary, which have been cut 25-50%. In the UAE, employee salaries have two components-basic salary, and "allowances" (living expenses, transportation, skills, etc.). No crew (flight deck or cabin) have been let go. Sir Tim Clark, for example, is taking a 100% basic salary cut, but is almost certainly being paid his allowances. He has a nice end-of-service paycheck coming his way soon as well.
Banking services are operating normally, and there are no restrictions on who leaves-provided they can find a flight to a country that will accept them.


Thank You. I don't think any airline is paying all allowances to grounded crew. Allegedly, AAB wrote to cabin crew that even terminated crew would get housing and living allowance until such time they can leave the country.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Vio
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Mon May 18, 2020 2:34 am

Vladex wrote:
Vio wrote:
"Sir"... I laugh every time someone uses that... Grown men with titles that are as outdated as those that bestow them.


You don't want to start this , I mean Captain is a military term...


Indeed. They should be called "Pilot" and "Co-Pilot"
Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Mon May 18, 2020 3:35 am

Revelation wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
2 years from now do we know which airlines still plan to have the 380 in their fleet?

Emirates and who else?

SQ and QF already had cabin refresh programs in place when COVID-19 hit, so I think they are the most likely.


NH i believe
 
AvFanNJ
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Mon May 18, 2020 4:08 am

BlueSky1976 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:

B747 is the Queen of the Sky, do you mind?


I do, actually. Queen is dead. B747 IS the Whale of the Sky. Beer keg sitting on top of the plank. At least A380s wings are gracious...


BOTH of them are dead but the A380 loss is all the more tragic because it's going long before it should have, even well before what was expected when its termination was announced. At least the 747 made it through the better part of 50 years in its several design iterations. And both of them are aesthetically pleasing in their own way. But even as the market was moving on, the unexpected viral onslaught hastened and sealed their doom much faster than we had all expected. And though they are now obsolete, we'll miss these quad-engine giants as the engineering marvels they are and because the skies will be emptier and plane spotting will be far less exciting in their absence. RIP to the old Queen and especially the newer King because it seems like we hardly knew you.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Mon May 18, 2020 8:43 am

In the large aircraft, Boeing and Lockheed introduced the 747 and L-1011 in 1968 with Boeing having the first flight. The L-1011 faded out. The DC-10 (later the MD-11) competed with the 747 but never got the upper hand. The A-380 entered the market with the big 777 twin already in service, the 77W launched in 2000 so was the competition as the A380 design was being finalized. This competition with the twin jets got all the more heated with the 787 and A350 being launched right around first flight of the A380. The VLA segment split at that point - prior to a VLA was needed to obtain range as much as capacity, since then range could be achieved by smaller planes comparably efficient. Capacity along doesn't seem to drive airplane size, look how the market is favoring NB's so much, as long as they have the capacity.

A sea change was occurring right as the A380 entered the market. The MD-11 stopped in 2000, the A300/310 stopped in 2007, the 757 stopped in 2004, and the A340 stopped in 2011 as the new efficient twins killed off 4 older models. There was too much of the older generation in the A380 coupled with a number of decisions discussed to their death on a.net. Most airplane models after production stops still will be in service 20 years after. I am unsure if there will be more than 20 A380s flying in 15 years.

Boeing 707 1957-78 865 Built over 21 years
Boeing 727 1962-84 1,832 Built over 22 years.
Boeing 737 1966-current 10,577 Built over 54 years so far
Boeing 747 1968-current 1,557 Built over 52 years so far
Boeing 757 1981-2004 1,050 built 23 years.
Boeing 767 1981-current 1,186 built over 39 years so far
Boeing 777 1993 - current 1,634 built over 27 years so far
Boeing 787 2007-current 1,000 built over 13 years so far

Airbus A300 1971-2007 561 built over 38 years
Airbus A310 1983-1998 255 built over 15 years
Airbus A320 1986-current 9,355 over 34 years
Airbus A330 1992-current 1,497 over 28 years
Airbus A340 1991 - 2011 380 over 20 years
Airbus A350 2010-current 362 over 10 years
Airbus A380 2003-2021 242 over 18 years
 
brindabella
Posts: 620
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Mon May 18, 2020 1:02 pm

hongkongflyer wrote:
Revelation wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
2 years from now do we know which airlines still plan to have the 380 in their fleet?

Emirates and who else?

SQ and QF already had cabin refresh programs in place when COVID-19 hit, so I think they are the most likely.


NH i believe


Good point! Gotta keep the gigantic turtles flying!

:D

However I would worry a bit about the future propensity of the Japanese people to fly into (possibly) unsafe destinations,
no matter how beautiful the beaches may be ...
:headache:

cheers
Billy
 
Dave05
Posts: 44
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:09 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:51 am

I slept like a baby while flying on the A380 from Guangzhou to LAX in economy class.... Is the A380 has a lower cabin pressure like the 787 and A350 too? Most comfortable, quiet and smoothest flight ever......
 
jetawayusa
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:00 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:53 am

FlyHossD wrote:
OzarkD9S wrote:
The Whale killed by a microscopic virus. Among other factors of course...


The real whales - the 747s - are still alive as the cargo versions are busy, in part due to the virus.

I've never referred to the A380 as a whale - if forced into using a nickname, I'd call it Uncle Fester.


UA's 747 Whale commercial:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOBnfR9WHSk
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3583
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:43 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
In the large aircraft, Boeing and Lockheed introduced the 747 and L-1011 in 1968 with Boeing having the first flight. The L-1011 faded out. The DC-10 (later the MD-11) competed with the 747 but never got the upper hand. The A-380 entered the market with the big 777 twin already in service, the 77W launched in 2000 so was the competition as the A380 design was being finalized. This competition with the twin jets got all the more heated with the 787 and A350 being launched right around first flight of the A380. The VLA segment split at that point - prior to a VLA was needed to obtain range as much as capacity, since then range could be achieved by smaller planes comparably efficient. Capacity along doesn't seem to drive airplane size, look how the market is favoring NB's so much, as long as they have the capacity.

A sea change was occurring right as the A380 entered the market. The MD-11 stopped in 2000, the A300/310 stopped in 2007, the 757 stopped in 2004, and the A340 stopped in 2011 as the new efficient twins killed off 4 older models. There was too much of the older generation in the A380 coupled with a number of decisions discussed to their death on a.net. Most airplane models after production stops still will be in service 20 years after. I am unsure if there will be more than 20 A380s flying in 15 years.

Boeing 707 1957-78 865 Built over 21 years
Boeing 727 1962-84 1,832 Built over 22 years.
Boeing 737 1966-current 10,577 Built over 54 years so far
Boeing 747 1968-current 1,557 Built over 52 years so far
Boeing 757 1981-2004 1,050 built 23 years.
Boeing 767 1981-current 1,186 built over 39 years so far
Boeing 777 1993 - current 1,634 built over 27 years so far
Boeing 787 2007-current 1,000 built over 13 years so far

Airbus A300 1971-2007 561 built over 38 years
Airbus A310 1983-1998 255 built over 15 years
Airbus A320 1986-current 9,355 over 34 years
Airbus A330 1992-current 1,497 over 28 years
Airbus A340 1991 - 2011 380 over 20 years
Airbus A350 2010-current 362 over 10 years
Airbus A380 2003-2021 242 over 18 years



You say the new efficient twins killed off 4 older models. If you list the A340 as a separate model you have to do the same for the A300/A310. Especially as the A300. A310 & A340 all had different wings. Thus they replace the 5 older models.
Is interesting the 757 production ran for 23 years and replaced the 727 that had 22 years production though.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3583
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:50 am

jetawayusa wrote:
FlyHossD wrote:
OzarkD9S wrote:
The Whale killed by a microscopic virus. Among other factors of course...


The real whales - the 747s - are still alive as the cargo versions are busy, in part due to the virus.

I've never referred to the A380 as a whale - if forced into using a nickname, I'd call it Uncle Fester.


UA's 747 Whale commercial:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOBnfR9WHSk


The 747 was not called the whale that I've heard, but a lot of A380's have been termed the whaleJet.
 
KingOrGod
Posts: 154
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:24 pm

Vio wrote:
"Sir"... I laugh every time someone uses that... Grown men with titles that are as outdated as those that bestow them.


The*only* time I use "sir" with a pilot on freq is to let him know he has screwed pooch. So if I am on the radio, and you're laughing because you were referred to as "sir", then you're laughing for the wrong reason LOL

Back to topic, The A380 will still see a lot of service at EK. It sure won't be ordered anymore obviously, but it also won't be gone tomorrow...
 
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Revelation
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:56 pm

rbavfan wrote:
The 747 was not called the whale that I've heard, but a lot of A380's have been termed the whaleJet.

I agree. You can make some suggestions that 747 could take that name because of its size and to a degree its shape, but the A380 is IMO much more whale like. Big flat forehead, slab sided, huge in size.

KingOrGod wrote:
The A380 will still see a lot of service at EK. It sure won't be ordered anymore obviously, but it also won't be gone tomorrow...

It's not like they have much choice. Clearly they wanted to get out of A380, they canceled 38 orders, are trying to cancel five more, and have ordered A350 and 787. CV19 has made the need to downsize even more obvious but has taken away the ability to do so. For now they make do with what they have. In the end I think the true need for A380s is a few dozen, but since they have 115 they will just keep rotating the ones they have to avoid costly maintenance till it's time to retire the fleet.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
mcg
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:49 am

Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:45 pm

Airlinerdude wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
I wonder what aviation finance community thinks about his comments. Those are not his frames, or even Emirates frames. These are owned by banks and lessors who bet their farms on his misadventures. Now making it sound like Airbus couldn't sell enough or other airlines didn't buy enough to save the program. Such comments only reduce resale potential and value further.


Lessors and banks made their own risk calculations when they elected to take on the burden of owning/financing EK's 380 fleet. Lessors hopefully calculated being able to make a return with the assumption of disposing of the aircraft at the end of their lease term. If not, that's their fault, not the fault of Tim Clark or Emirates.


I wonder how much A380 related residual risk is out there and where it resides.
 
mcg
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:50 pm

Vio wrote:
Vladex wrote:
Vio wrote:
"Sir"... I laugh every time someone uses that... Grown men with titles that are as outdated as those that bestow them.


You don't want to start this , I mean Captain is a military term...


Indeed. They should be called "Pilot" and "Co-Pilot"


"Pilot" and "Co-Pilot" sound Soviet to me.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 508
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:00 pm

My 2cents: The A380 should never be deemed a failure, but should be considered a marvel. There are risks to every great invention. This may be the last large, uniquely different, non-derivative concept in the skies for awhile. Next time you see it in its natural habitat, think of it has a living legend. It deserves nothing less!
Last edited by TYWoolman on Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 5631
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:01 pm

rbavfan wrote:
jetawayusa wrote:
FlyHossD wrote:

The real whales - the 747s - are still alive as the cargo versions are busy, in part due to the virus.

I've never referred to the A380 as a whale - if forced into using a nickname, I'd call it Uncle Fester.


UA's 747 Whale commercial:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOBnfR9WHSk


The 747 was not called the whale that I've heard, but a lot of A380's have been termed the whaleJet.


The 747 has been “the Whale” forever, at least since I got in the business 36 years ago.
 
Breathe
Posts: 662
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:06 pm

Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:11 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
My 2cents: The A380 should never be deemed a failure, but should be considered a marvel. There are risks to every great invention. This may be the last large, uniquely different, non-derivative concept in the skies for awhile. Next time you see it in its natural habitat, think of it has a living legend. It deserves nothing less!

I look at the A380 as the 21st Century version of Concorde. Quite an impressive piece of technology, but an economical disaster.

Concorde only saw 27 years of passenger service, I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if the A380 sees more than 20 years, but hopefully a few of them will keep flying for a while longer.
 
Noshow
Posts: 1514
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:21 pm

If you look how long and how many generations the 747 needed to become reliable, established and successful there was not enough stamina to bring the A380 into the market. All those Emirates sales were on top of what had been expected. So why do they stop it after such a short time? And even with John Leahy as the sales chief Airbus never really figured out how to sell big numbers to India and China. Both countries have modern airports and some market for the A380.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:53 pm

Thread went off topic and will be locked.

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