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mcogator
Posts: 553
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 11, 2020 9:24 pm

I flew DL LAX-SJC last week, and I had first class to myself with my partner. There were 8 ppl in Y. My DL LAX-MCO flight for the beginning of June was changed to LAX-ATL-MCO, and it shows 5 available seats in Y on the ATL flight, and 12 available seats on the MCO flight, both on the 752.

Disney Springs is reopening on May 20. Its expected Disney World will probably reopen before the July 4th weekend.

My LAX-SJD flight on July 4th weekend, for my friend's postponed wedding, now shows as sold out on dl.com.
“Traveling – it leaves you speechless, then turns you into a storyteller.” – Ibn Battuta
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 11, 2020 10:51 pm

Osubuckeyes wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:

Yes but, as some have pointed out, with such limited capacity in place, there is no way to maintain a 20% compounding growth rate at this point. The growth rate is bound to decrease in the next few weeks, especially with carriers blocking off seats. And future schedules are built off of more flights. Most of the major cuts are being done relatively close in

It's a chicken and the egg problem. Carriers don't want to add capacity back until they see demand, but they can't see demand in some cases until they add capacity. If I can't get from ATL-SEA this week on UA with a reasonable layover for example, that's pretty telling of a broader issue that's going to have to be resolved capacity wise. By far and away WN seems to be in the best position with regards to that, they're the only one I seem to still be able to find a healthy amount of connections on. AA is a close second, but UA/DL lag way behind at this point. Haven't really paid attention to the LCCs/ULCCs on this

When the airlines start to run out of seats they are going to reinstate flights. June already has more flights than may on many carriers and July is basically untouched. There’s really no limitation on advanced bookings further than 3-7 weeks.


Isn't a significant amount of business travel booked <4 weeks out? I think that gets to the krux of his argument. The airlines have to leave enough capacity to gauge whether demand is coming back or not otherwise they are behind the curve... I don't think that is necessarily an issue for May, but could be in June/early July in which flights have been cut to bare bones.


No meeting traffic, no event traffic until at least September. No real International until beyond the first of the year. When that returns, so does the traffic.
NETJETS, XO, Gama and the rest of the 135’s are flying every hour they have the ability to already, and will be for the foreseeable future.
I agree with the previous poster, what you are seeing right now is previous domestic demand, Southwest is set up the best for it, right now, and doesn’t have a huge Int infrastructure to support.

The rea
 
Miamiairport
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 11, 2020 10:58 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Not until the Porn Panic subsides do I see business travel returning. Here in the US the media death orgy will continue until November. Therefore I don’t see business travel returning to any significant level until 2021. Planes will be packed by BE fares but that won’t stem the losses.

I think the importance of business travel is way overstated on this page. Any ticket bought within 2 weeks is called business travel to an airline. It’s impossible to actually differentiate.


What do you mean it's not important at least to legacy airlines, including WN and B6. It's what drives margins, not the people sitting in row 32 with a BE fare. BE fares help to drive cash flow and fill seats but doesn't drive the bottom line.
 
chrisair
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 12, 2020 12:11 am

32andBelow wrote:
People making their once a year visits to friends and family are gonna crush “businessmen”.


They are? If you are unemployed (like 33+ million are currently), and don't have much money to pay for your family's food/utilities, you're not going to fly somewhere to see friends or family. You're going to drive. If your company is out of business, you're not flying anywhere on a "business trip."

Will these TSA numbers go up? They have to. They were so low, they have to. Will they reach peak levels that we saw in January 2020? Not for a long time. Cool to see the seven day average trends in this data. Thanks OP for putting it together.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 12, 2020 5:13 am

Excellent work SumChristianus. Nice to see a consistent increase in traffic over the past couple of weeks.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 12, 2020 6:35 am

32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
I’m just saying it’s overblown and the far majority of passengers are not “business men”. Funny that the airlines with the best margins don’t cater to these dickheads all.

Anyone that buys a ticket with 14 or 7 days at an airline is listed as “business passenger” wether they are or aren’t.

My main point is we can have a large percentage of the passengers back without “bussinessmen”. People making their once a year visits to friends and family are gonna crush “businessmen”.


Anyone who buys a ticket within 14 days is not listed as a business passenger, there are clear ways for airlines to distinguish between different types of passengers.

No there aren’t. Unless they have a contract with the airline.


Nearly every mid-large company/institution books through 3rd party channels (concur, amex, e.t.c), and that information is then funneled to the airline. Additionally, airlines have data on what companies are flying what routes and at what volume thanks to PRISM data.

If you aren't familiar with PRISM, here is a good intro
https://paullaherty.com/2012/08/03/the-power-of-prism/

Long explanation short, airlines aren't just shooting in the dark when it comes to corporate travel......
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DL
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 12, 2020 10:02 am

Thank you SumChristianus for your work. Very painful to see the raw numbers : over 2.2M down to 87k it's massive!
Fortunately numbers are increasing.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 16, 2020 4:41 pm

Can you add a weekly average to the chart. It definitely helps see a week-over-week comparison? Daily can be hard to compare because of the fluctuations. These are my numbers from your chart, it's an "average day" of that week. Adding up Saturday thru-Friday totals and dividing by 7.

Image
Image
 
ual4life
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 16, 2020 4:45 pm

Yes please!
NNVII
 
IAHWorldflyer
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 16, 2020 5:35 pm

Just my 2 cents, but there's a lot of business travel in the summer months connected to trade shows and conventions. In my industry, you could go to almost 1 a week in July and August. Most of those have been outright cancelled now. There's only one that I usually go to that is in August that is still technically on. What I'm saying is that will squeeze passenger numbers this summer, and also have a huge impact on full service hotels in downtown areas. Those guys are going to get crushed.
Thanks for keeping the charts updated. I think it's some really good data. At some point, I need to go visit my elderly mother. I might make a trip in mid June. Right now the airline capacity is so low, the schedules make it difficult to do a quick weekend turn.
 
tootallsd
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 16, 2020 6:26 pm

There is an increase in raw numbers. I've taken the same data and am comparing 2020 to 2019 based on week number so that we have a common Sun - Sat seven day period relative to the same point of the year. The raw numbers show an increase of 2x in jetmatt777's graph, but on a percentage basis:

Week 14 3/29 - 4/4/20 off by 93.8%
Week 15 4/5 - 4/11/20 off by 95.6%
Week 16 4/12 - 4/18/20 off by 96.0%
Week 17 4/19 - 4/25/20 off by 95.5%
Week 18 4/26 - 5/2/20 off by 94.3%
Week 19 5/3 - 5/9/20 off by 92.8%

The 1.5% change from week 18 to 19 is about 35,000 passengers per day.

So the change is real but we are so far down in the weeds, the improvement is probably not perceptible and would not alter any airlines plans on near-term response.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 16, 2020 7:14 pm

tootallsd wrote:
There is an increase in raw numbers. I've taken the same data and am comparing 2020 to 2019 based on week number so that we have a common Sun - Sat seven day period relative to the same point of the year. The raw numbers show an increase of 2x in jetmatt777's graph, but on a percentage basis:

Week 14 3/29 - 4/4/20 off by 93.8%
Week 15 4/5 - 4/11/20 off by 95.6%
Week 16 4/12 - 4/18/20 off by 96.0%
Week 17 4/19 - 4/25/20 off by 95.5%
Week 18 4/26 - 5/2/20 off by 94.3%
Week 19 5/3 - 5/9/20 off by 92.8%

The 1.5% change from week 18 to 19 is about 35,000 passengers per day.

So the change is real but we are so far down in the weeds, the improvement is probably not perceptible and would not alter any airlines plans on near-term response.

I think we are due for a big jump after Memorial Day. Don’t get it confused with me saying it’s going back to normal. But a lot of people are planning for sticking trips this summer. I think we’ll be up over a million by mid summer. That’s my prediction.

It should also be noted that we are still following the same historical busy travel days so there is some amount of people that are already taking weekend trips. Or mon-Thur/fri business trips.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 16, 2020 8:51 pm

32andBelow wrote:
tootallsd wrote:
There is an increase in raw numbers. I've taken the same data and am comparing 2020 to 2019 based on week number so that we have a common Sun - Sat seven day period relative to the same point of the year. The raw numbers show an increase of 2x in jetmatt777's graph, but on a percentage basis:

Week 14 3/29 - 4/4/20 off by 93.8%
Week 15 4/5 - 4/11/20 off by 95.6%
Week 16 4/12 - 4/18/20 off by 96.0%
Week 17 4/19 - 4/25/20 off by 95.5%
Week 18 4/26 - 5/2/20 off by 94.3%
Week 19 5/3 - 5/9/20 off by 92.8%

The 1.5% change from week 18 to 19 is about 35,000 passengers per day.

So the change is real but we are so far down in the weeds, the improvement is probably not perceptible and would not alter any airlines plans on near-term response.

I think we are due for a big jump after Memorial Day. Don’t get it confused with me saying it’s going back to normal. But a lot of people are planning for sticking trips this summer. I think we’ll be up over a million by mid summer. That’s my prediction.

It should also be noted that we are still following the same historical busy travel days so there is some amount of people that are already taking weekend trips. Or mon-Thur/fri business trips.


Completely agree with this, I have been reading about Florida hotels recently, and many are already expecting 50%+ occupancy for next weekend (outside of South Florida). This at least shows travelers willingness to travel for leisure, although obviously many will still likely chose to travel by car initially.

We are still far from normal, but if traffic can continue to increase by 1.5% for the rest of the year, traffic would "only" be around 40% off YOY which would be a "win" compared to some of the scenarios being thrown about.

The weekend piece is true as well, as even in late April/early May, there was still sizable weekend occupancy at many destinations.

Image
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 16, 2020 9:04 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
tootallsd wrote:
There is an increase in raw numbers. I've taken the same data and am comparing 2020 to 2019 based on week number so that we have a common Sun - Sat seven day period relative to the same point of the year. The raw numbers show an increase of 2x in jetmatt777's graph, but on a percentage basis:

Week 14 3/29 - 4/4/20 off by 93.8%
Week 15 4/5 - 4/11/20 off by 95.6%
Week 16 4/12 - 4/18/20 off by 96.0%
Week 17 4/19 - 4/25/20 off by 95.5%
Week 18 4/26 - 5/2/20 off by 94.3%
Week 19 5/3 - 5/9/20 off by 92.8%

The 1.5% change from week 18 to 19 is about 35,000 passengers per day.

So the change is real but we are so far down in the weeds, the improvement is probably not perceptible and would not alter any airlines plans on near-term response.

I think we are due for a big jump after Memorial Day. Don’t get it confused with me saying it’s going back to normal. But a lot of people are planning for sticking trips this summer. I think we’ll be up over a million by mid summer. That’s my prediction.

It should also be noted that we are still following the same historical busy travel days so there is some amount of people that are already taking weekend trips. Or mon-Thur/fri business trips.


Completely agree with this, I have been reading about Florida hotels recently, and many are already expecting 50%+ occupancy for next weekend (outside of South Florida). This at least shows travelers willingness to travel for leisure, although obviously many will still likely chose to travel by car initially.

We are still far from normal, but if traffic can continue to increase by 1.5% for the rest of the year, traffic would "only" be around 40% off YOY which would be a "win" compared to some of the scenarios being thrown about.

The weekend piece is true as well, as even in late April/early May, there was still sizable weekend occupancy at many destinations.

Image

2 big ones are the quarantine restrictions in Hawaii and Alaska which won’t help this summer.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 16, 2020 9:26 pm

I think we will see a sharper than expected ramp up in demand. I don't think projections are accounting for the fact that this initial rise in demand may be a litmus test for many on the sidelines. Once they see a friend or family member fly but not get sick, they will be more likely to do it themselves. There could be a flood gate effect.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 16, 2020 9:28 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
I think we will see a sharper than expected ramp up in demand. I don't think projections are accounting for the fact that this initial rise in demand may be a litmus test for many on the sidelines. Once they see a friend or family member fly but not get sick, they will be more likely to do it themselves. There could be a flood gate effect.

I know more people than not that have travel booked for July and august. The question is are we going to have a giant outbreak this summer.
 
Cedar
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun May 17, 2020 4:49 am

jetmatt777 wrote:
I think we will see a sharper than expected ramp up in demand. I don't think projections are accounting for the fact that this initial rise in demand may be a litmus test for many on the sidelines. Once they see a friend or family member fly but not get sick, they will be more likely to do it themselves. There could be a flood gate effect.


:thumbsup: :thumbsup: You hit the nail on the head. Word of mouth is huge, and it will be like the saying goes, mokey see monkey do.

I live right under the flight line of a major northeastern airport - and I can tell you that it went from a handful of flights a day (mainly cargo), to now a flight every 15 min like clock work. And 90% of them are not cargo. I know Pilots need to stay current, but I highly doubt all of these are training or mandatory flights. It's every single Arline I'm seeing - B6, Alaska, AA, DL, UA.

And I know that UA has carried more pax in the first 15 days of May than all of April.

Perhaps someone from UA can chime in.

Cedar
Last edited by Cedar on Sun May 17, 2020 4:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun May 17, 2020 5:45 am

Cedar wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
I think we will see a sharper than expected ramp up in demand. I don't think projections are accounting for the fact that this initial rise in demand may be a litmus test for many on the sidelines. Once they see a friend or family member fly but not get sick, they will be more likely to do it themselves. There could be a flood gate effect.



:thumbsup: :thumbsup: You hit the nail on the head. Word of mouth is huge, and it will be like the saying goes, mokey see monkey do.

I live right under the flight line of a major northeastern airport - and I can tell you that it went from a handful of flights a day (mainly cargo), to now a flight every 15 min like clock work. And 90% of them are not cargo. I know Pilots need to stay current, but I highly doubt all of these are training or mandatory flights. It's every single Arline I'm seeing - B6, Alaska, AA, DL, UA.

And I know that UA has carried more pax in the first 15 days of May than all of April.

Perhaps someone from UA can chime in.

Cedar


UA is currently upgauging 35-40 flights a day. Typically we are doing 320's in place of 319's and 800's in place of 700's. Not adding any flights to the schedule though except for international cargo charters on widebodies. Wait and see approach. If trends continue I could see a few select hub-to-hub flights increase in frequency towards the end of the month as those are about the only flights that are consistently full (well closer to 70% LF).
 
KFTG
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 2:35 am

500k by 01Jun. Quote me.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 2:36 am

KFTG wrote:
500k by 01Jun. Quote me.


I really hope you are right!
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 2:54 am

KFTG wrote:
500k by 01Jun. Quote me.

I’m going 1mil by Labor Day. Yours is a bit agressive but I could see it.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 3:07 am

32andBelow wrote:
KFTG wrote:
500k by 01Jun. Quote me.

I’m going 1mil by Labor Day. Yours is a bit agressive but I could see it.


How does 1.5 for around Thanksgiving sound?
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 3:37 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
KFTG wrote:
500k by 01Jun. Quote me.

I’m going 1mil by Labor Day. Yours is a bit agressive but I could see it.


How does 1.5 for around Thanksgiving sound?

I’m gonna be hungry for some turkey by then!
 
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lightsaber
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 3:38 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
KFTG wrote:
500k by 01Jun. Quote me.

I’m going 1mil by Labor Day. Yours is a bit agressive but I could see it.


How does 1.5 for around Thanksgiving sound?

I could believe Thanksgiving at 60% of traffic.

However, yhe current slow growth is painful.
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 4:06 am

lightsaber wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
I’m going 1mil by Labor Day. Yours is a bit agressive but I could see it.


How does 1.5 for around Thanksgiving sound?

I could believe Thanksgiving at 60% of traffic.

However, yhe current slow growth is painful.

Memorial Day baby. It’s all gonna kick off like a 102 fever.
 
KFTG
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 6:42 am

32andBelow wrote:
Memorial Day baby. It’s all gonna kick off like a 102 fever.

Yep, people have had enough of the BS. It's coming back. Bigly.
https://twitter.com/virginianpilot/status/1261842154122608640
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 1:57 pm

I agree with some of what you are saying but there are few big chunks of demand that are not likely to come back as quickly.
DL's current projections being thrown around are saying:
2020 Q4 - 25%
2021 Q2 - 50%
2021 Q3 - 70%

1) International travel - going to be extremely down for the next 3-6 months
2) Alaska / Hawaii - ongoing quarenteens for at least the next 2-3 months
3) Cruises - not coming back online to any extent anytime soon, probably fall at best; none of the summer Alaskan cruise season
4) Non-essential, corporate business travel - most large companies still under travel bans, road warriors still grounded; probably going to start seeing this ease back in starting in July but will be depressed the rest of the year also due to budget / austerity measures
5) Conventions, training, trade shows - most events cancelled through the end of 2020; due to no large gatherings, logistical issues, and economic budget/austerity measures
 
Cedar
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 2:28 pm

Definitely agree with all the optimism here & the rapid increase in passenger numbers. I've been saying this from day one. Just in my circle alone - people are trying to book flights or looking flights to book.

The demand is there and just itching to get up & go. Watch this space.

Cedar
 
dcaproducer
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 2:42 pm

I agree with several of the comments demand will surge for leisure travel. Especially to CONUS beach destinations. I think there will be a lot of road trips this summer too, but air travel will bounce. I Think WN, NK, F9 will see a good response from this. I saw a AA regional pilot post a video of CLT on Instagram yesterday with a very full B concourse.

International, especially long haul, won't rebound this year. It's going to be a really slow comeback. (my opinion)

On the business travel side, many of my clients have banned non-essential travel through July. I expect this to go even longer.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 3:30 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I agree with some of what you are saying but there are few big chunks of demand that are not likely to come back as quickly.
DL's current projections being thrown around are saying:
2020 Q4 - 25%
2021 Q2 - 50%
2021 Q3 - 70%

1) International travel - going to be extremely down for the next 3-6 months
2) Alaska / Hawaii - ongoing quarenteens for at least the next 2-3 months
3) Cruises - not coming back online to any extent anytime soon, probably fall at best; none of the summer Alaskan cruise season
4) Non-essential, corporate business travel - most large companies still under travel bans, road warriors still grounded; probably going to start seeing this ease back in starting in July but will be depressed the rest of the year also due to budget / austerity measures
5) Conventions, training, trade shows - most events cancelled through the end of 2020; due to no large gatherings, logistical issues, and economic budget/austerity measures
Alaska is going to open in about 2 weeks I think. They just extended it and they only extended it for 2 weeks.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 4:03 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I agree with some of what you are saying but there are few big chunks of demand that are not likely to come back as quickly.
DL's current projections being thrown around are saying:
2020 Q4 - 25%
2021 Q2 - 50%
2021 Q3 - 70%

1) International travel - going to be extremely down for the next 3-6 months
2) Alaska / Hawaii - ongoing quarenteens for at least the next 2-3 months
3) Cruises - not coming back online to any extent anytime soon, probably fall at best; none of the summer Alaskan cruise season
4) Non-essential, corporate business travel - most large companies still under travel bans, road warriors still grounded; probably going to start seeing this ease back in starting in July but will be depressed the rest of the year also due to budget / austerity measures
5) Conventions, training, trade shows - most events cancelled through the end of 2020; due to no large gatherings, logistical issues, and economic budget/austerity measures


We need to separate this from domestic travel

Domestic travel is going to come back in a big way, then close in islands.

If you are an airline dependent on US to Asia or Europe you’re screwed for a while
 
joeblow10
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 4:09 pm

32andBelow wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I agree with some of what you are saying but there are few big chunks of demand that are not likely to come back as quickly.
DL's current projections being thrown around are saying:
2020 Q4 - 25%
2021 Q2 - 50%
2021 Q3 - 70%

1) International travel - going to be extremely down for the next 3-6 months
2) Alaska / Hawaii - ongoing quarenteens for at least the next 2-3 months
3) Cruises - not coming back online to any extent anytime soon, probably fall at best; none of the summer Alaskan cruise season
4) Non-essential, corporate business travel - most large companies still under travel bans, road warriors still grounded; probably going to start seeing this ease back in starting in July but will be depressed the rest of the year also due to budget / austerity measures
5) Conventions, training, trade shows - most events cancelled through the end of 2020; due to no large gatherings, logistical issues, and economic budget/austerity measures
Alaska is going to open in about 2 weeks I think. They just extended it and they only extended it for 2 weeks.


Correct - now expires June 2. But there is still another mandate prohibiting in-state travel except for critical infrastructure needs, and I believe that one is indefinite as of now. I could see that expiring 6/2 as well, but perhaps not. There are so many small villages with little to no health infrastructure that would be ravaged by COVID if it got there.

Alaska is definitely more conservative than Hawaii though - and it's got an oil problem too. Both states are seeing an economic apocalypse from this, but I would guess AK will lift their restrictions before HI.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 4:40 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I agree with some of what you are saying but there are few big chunks of demand that are not likely to come back as quickly.
DL's current projections being thrown around are saying:
2020 Q4 - 25%
2021 Q2 - 50%
2021 Q3 - 70%

1) International travel - going to be extremely down for the next 3-6 months
2) Alaska / Hawaii - ongoing quarenteens for at least the next 2-3 months
3) Cruises - not coming back online to any extent anytime soon, probably fall at best; none of the summer Alaskan cruise season
4) Non-essential, corporate business travel - most large companies still under travel bans, road warriors still grounded; probably going to start seeing this ease back in starting in July but will be depressed the rest of the year also due to budget / austerity measures
5) Conventions, training, trade shows - most events cancelled through the end of 2020; due to no large gatherings, logistical issues, and economic budget/austerity measures
Alaska is going to open in about 2 weeks I think. They just extended it and they only extended it for 2 weeks.


Correct - now expires June 2. But there is still another mandate prohibiting in-state travel except for critical infrastructure needs, and I believe that one is indefinite as of now. I could see that expiring 6/2 as well, but perhaps not. There are so many small villages with little to no health infrastructure that would be ravaged by COVID if it got there.

Alaska is definitely more conservative than Hawaii though - and it's got an oil problem too. Both states are seeing an economic apocalypse from this, but I would guess AK will lift their restrictions before HI.

I think they’ll continue to allow villages to set their own rules. But they are going to let the state open for fisherman and hunters and general tourists. It’ll still be way down. My parents are planning on coming up in august so I hope it’s open by then.
 
MaxTrimm
Posts: 258
Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2015 2:43 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 4:53 pm

BREAKING: On Sunday, May 17th, 253,807 people came through @TSA checkpoints nationwide. Exactly one year earlier, 2,620,276 people were screened at security checkpoints across the country. As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, it will be interesting to see what happens this week.

From TSA spokesperson Lisa Farbstein on Twitter.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7938
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 5:08 pm

Domestic travel coming back in a big way?

Like I've said in other postings, domestic travel to visit family/friends/relatives is going to come back first, and some amount of domestic leisure over the summer months. Leisure travel to beach, mountain, and to family-owned vacation properties - yes. Leisure to big city destinations NYC, DC, Vegas, not so fast. Hard to say how much is regional in nature or requires air travel.

Most business are on travel bans at least through end of June.

Again it will come back but its a slow-ramp, not step-function increases.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4804
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 5:10 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Domestic travel coming back in a big way?

Like I've said in other postings, domestic travel to visit family/friends/relatives is going to come back first, and some amount of domestic leisure over the summer months. Leisure travel to beach, mountain, and to family-owned vacation properties - yes. Leisure to big city destinations NYC, DC, Vegas, not so fast. Hard to say how much is regional in nature or requires air travel.

Most business are on travel bans at least through end of June.

Again it will come back but its a slow-ramp, not step-function increases.

I know my union move both their conferences to q4 of this year. They are going to start again at some point.
 
User avatar
madpropsyo
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:02 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 5:40 pm

I wouldn't count on Memorial Day or even July 4th leading to marked increases in leisure air travel. People typically fly around those summer holidays to go to big events or to kick off their summer activities because it's a nice 3-day weekend that they can turn into a week off. But most people just had 2 months "off" and all the normal events and activities they would travel for are still closed or heavily restricted.

I don't think leisure air travel will start to tick back up until sometime in mid-to-late summer. By that point some events will be back on, amusement parks, restaurants, etc. will be allowed to marginally increase their capacities, weddings rescheduled, and people will be allowed to recreate with generally fewer restrictions. The winter holiday season will be the more interesting one to watch. I mean we're 2 full months into this now and we've seen throughput numbers hold steady around ~4% at the bottom to a plateau of ~9% for the last couple weeks. It's a marathon, not a sprint.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 776
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 5:54 pm

MaxTrimm wrote:
BREAKING: On Sunday, May 17th, 253,807 people came through @TSA checkpoints nationwide. Exactly one year earlier, 2,620,276 people were screened at security checkpoints across the country. As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, it will be interesting to see what happens this week.

From TSA spokesperson Lisa Farbstein on Twitter.


Flights will be BUSY this weekend, starting Thursday. All leisure demand, the weather hasn’t yet broken in the Upper Midwest, people are going to flee to the beaches.
The numbers will definitely spike, there are some add-on trips, but let’s see what happens when the traffic normalizes in 10 days.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4804
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 6:00 pm

madpropsyo wrote:
I wouldn't count on Memorial Day or even July 4th leading to marked increases in leisure air travel. People typically fly around those summer holidays to go to big events or to kick off their summer activities because it's a nice 3-day weekend that they can turn into a week off. But most people just had 2 months "off" and all the normal events and activities they would travel for are still closed or heavily restricted.

I don't think leisure air travel will start to tick back up until sometime in mid-to-late summer. By that point some events will be back on, amusement parks, restaurants, etc. will be allowed to marginally increase their capacities, weddings rescheduled, and people will be allowed to recreate with generally fewer restrictions. The winter holiday season will be the more interesting one to watch. I mean we're 2 full months into this now and we've seen throughput numbers hold steady around ~4% at the bottom to a plateau of ~9% for the last couple weeks. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

What platue? The boarding shave been climbing steadily. We hit 200000 last week. Will prolly hit 300000 this weekend.
 
N766UA
Posts: 8315
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 1999 3:50 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 7:23 pm

32andBelow wrote:
madpropsyo wrote:
I wouldn't count on Memorial Day or even July 4th leading to marked increases in leisure air travel. People typically fly around those summer holidays to go to big events or to kick off their summer activities because it's a nice 3-day weekend that they can turn into a week off. But most people just had 2 months "off" and all the normal events and activities they would travel for are still closed or heavily restricted.

I don't think leisure air travel will start to tick back up until sometime in mid-to-late summer. By that point some events will be back on, amusement parks, restaurants, etc. will be allowed to marginally increase their capacities, weddings rescheduled, and people will be allowed to recreate with generally fewer restrictions. The winter holiday season will be the more interesting one to watch. I mean we're 2 full months into this now and we've seen throughput numbers hold steady around ~4% at the bottom to a plateau of ~9% for the last couple weeks. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

What platue? The boarding shave been climbing steadily. We hit 200000 last week. Will prolly hit 300000 this weekend.


Wow, 300,000. Somebody pinch me.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4804
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 11:12 pm

N766UA wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
madpropsyo wrote:
I wouldn't count on Memorial Day or even July 4th leading to marked increases in leisure air travel. People typically fly around those summer holidays to go to big events or to kick off their summer activities because it's a nice 3-day weekend that they can turn into a week off. But most people just had 2 months "off" and all the normal events and activities they would travel for are still closed or heavily restricted.

I don't think leisure air travel will start to tick back up until sometime in mid-to-late summer. By that point some events will be back on, amusement parks, restaurants, etc. will be allowed to marginally increase their capacities, weddings rescheduled, and people will be allowed to recreate with generally fewer restrictions. The winter holiday season will be the more interesting one to watch. I mean we're 2 full months into this now and we've seen throughput numbers hold steady around ~4% at the bottom to a plateau of ~9% for the last couple weeks. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

What platue? The boarding shave been climbing steadily. We hit 200000 last week. Will prolly hit 300000 this weekend.


Wow, 300,000. Somebody pinch me.

It’s a big increase from 50,000. We’re looking for growth.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5122
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon May 18, 2020 11:20 pm

32andBelow wrote:
N766UA wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
What platue? The boarding shave been climbing steadily. We hit 200000 last week. Will prolly hit 300000 this weekend.


Wow, 300,000. Somebody pinch me.

It’s a big increase from 50,000. We’re looking for growth.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/airli ... 2020-05-18

Wall Street airline analysts are liking what they are seeing growth wise...
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
N766UA
Posts: 8315
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 1999 3:50 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 12:41 pm

32andBelow wrote:
N766UA wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
What platue? The boarding shave been climbing steadily. We hit 200000 last week. Will prolly hit 300000 this weekend.


Wow, 300,000. Somebody pinch me.

It’s a big increase from 50,000. We’re looking for growth.


We never hit 50,000. And yes, an increase is good, but right now it’s still hovering around 10% (numbers actually went down yesterday, to 9.2%) which still equates to certain doom for many thousands of jobs. Call me when we break a million...
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4804
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 3:07 pm

N766UA wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
N766UA wrote:

Wow, 300,000. Somebody pinch me.

It’s a big increase from 50,000. We’re looking for growth.


We never hit 50,000. And yes, an increase is good, but right now it’s still hovering around 10% (numbers actually went down yesterday, to 9.2%) which still equates to certain doom for many thousands of jobs. Call me when we break a million...

Ok well we are on an aviation forum In a thread about the daily tsa numbers so we are just discussing them increase on a daily basis.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 7773
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 4:04 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
MaxTrimm wrote:
BREAKING: On Sunday, May 17th, 253,807 people came through @TSA checkpoints nationwide. Exactly one year earlier, 2,620,276 people were screened at security checkpoints across the country. As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, it will be interesting to see what happens this week.

From TSA spokesperson Lisa Farbstein on Twitter.


Flights will be BUSY this weekend, starting Thursday. All leisure demand, the weather hasn’t yet broken in the Upper Midwest, people are going to flee to the beaches.
The numbers will definitely spike, there are some add-on trips, but let’s see what happens when the traffic normalizes in 10 days.


Want to put some numbers on that call for BUSY?
 
TommyBahama
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:16 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 5:18 pm

The numbers are going to hit a saturation point soon. With only about 10%-15% of the flights operating, and then those artificially limited to about a 60% load factor due to middle seats being blocked there will soon be a point where there is just not many more seats available.

In addition, the severe cuts have drastically reduced or sometimes eliminated connection availability further hurting demand. Airlines will have to increase the number of flights (and/or gauge) to bump the numbers significantly. Yesterday DL announced a small increase for June, hopefully there is enough demand for others to follow.
 
ethernal
Posts: 295
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 5:23 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Not until the Porn Panic subsides do I see business travel returning. Here in the US the media death orgy will continue until November. Therefore I don’t see business travel returning to any significant level until 2021. Planes will be packed by BE fares but that won’t stem the losses.

I think the importance of business travel is way overstated on this page. Any ticket bought within 2 weeks is called business travel to an airline. It’s impossible to actually differentiate.


That's not true at all. Maybe for small business travel but any large corporation has special coding and corporate contracts with at least the legacies. There are discount/rebate programs offered by the legacies. Delta even identifies such trips as "Business Travel" on their page. Even for those not booked with those codes, I can guarantee you that airlines have good enough analytics to properly classify trips as leisure versus business based on various factors.

And.. you really think business travel is overstated? Maybe for the NK and F9s of the world, but for the major legacies business travel is incredibly important. Even if overall the majority of passengers are leisure, business travelers help margin significantly. The Monday morning flights out of the hubs essentially print money. Every legacy loses money every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Saturday because there isn't a lot of business travel on those days. Friday and Sunday mix in a good bit of leisure with business, but Monday and Thursday is profitable entirely because of business travel.
 
Silver1SWA
Posts: 4672
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2004 6:11 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 5:47 pm

I’m tired of people trying to kill all positivity and hope by reminding us how bad things are year over year. We know it’s still bad! The point is things are improving and you don’t get back to “normal” without hitting these small improvements first. States are slowly reopening, many only opening in limited capacities. Others still have strict restrictions. We are only in the initial stages of restarting the economy and the slightly improved travel demand reflects that. It’s small but it’s noticeable. Airport terminals are noticeably more lively, loads are improving, airlines are talking about adding flights, etc. It’s still only May. Confidence will build and things will (hopefully) trend up and even if we aren’t close to normal by October or the end of the year, if the trend is up and it’s improving significantly month over month then it could help mitigate the damage coming October 1. Things are changing daily and airlines will need to be just as swift and nimble on the way up.

I’m tired of the doom and gloom. I’m planning for the worst but hoping for the best.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
TommyBahama
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:16 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 5:56 pm

Agreed. These piecemeal closures with no or flexible ending dates depress demand. Groups will not plan conventions if they cannot be assured hotels and restaurants will be open. Businesses will not schedule meetings if their employees cannot leave the hotel. Families won’t plan vacations if amusement parks and entertainment venues are closed.

Demand will return when there is stuff to do.
 
ethernal
Posts: 295
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 6:14 pm

TommyBahama wrote:
Agreed. These piecemeal closures with no or flexible ending dates depress demand. Groups will not plan conventions if they cannot be assured hotels and restaurants will be open. Businesses will not schedule meetings if their employees cannot leave the hotel. Families won’t plan vacations if amusement parks and entertainment venues are closed.

Demand will return when there is stuff to do.


Agreed, but at least a segment of business travel (events/marketing) will be busted until at least Summer '21. RSA - for example - just punted from February/early March to May of next year in hopes that if a second wave occurs it will be back under control by May. And even then, they expect to have a major virtual component. Every major conference in 2020 is cancelled (or will be cancelled if it hasn't already). Dreamforce, Black Hat, and so on - some of the largest conferences in the world are not happening this year.

Sales and professional services travel (which, in addition to internal corporate travel for meetings, makes up most business travel by volume) will recover in piecemeal, but ask any large consultancy or audit firm and they'll tell you that they're projecting travel at significantly depressed levels for at least the next 6-12 months.

The big question is what happens in the winter. I expect that there will be a bit of return to normalcy for leisure by September (if not for business) but I think certainty falls off a cliff starting in the holiday season (Nov/Dec) of this year.
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