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32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 6:21 pm

TommyBahama wrote:
The numbers are going to hit a saturation point soon. With only about 10%-15% of the flights operating, and then those artificially limited to about a 60% load factor due to middle seats being blocked there will soon be a point where there is just not many more seats available.

In addition, the severe cuts have drastically reduced or sometimes eliminated connection availability further hurting demand. Airlines will have to increase the number of flights (and/or gauge) to bump the numbers significantly. Yesterday DL announced a small increase for June, hopefully there is enough demand for others to follow.

No airlines are just going to add sections. They aren’t going to turn people away during this potential realignment. It’s already been pointed out United is adding thousands of seats a day by increasing aircraft size. If the majors don’t add back extra flights then southwest, Alaska and JetBlue certainly will.
 
TommyBahama
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 6:31 pm

I hope so, but I just attempted to book 3different flights for next month. Traveling from a medium size city, only one flight a day on my carrier of choice. All three flights sold out.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 6:42 pm

TommyBahama wrote:
I hope so, but I just attempted to book 3different flights for next month. Traveling from a medium size city, only one flight a day on my carrier of choice. All three flights sold out.

Then vote with your wallet.
 
IAHWorldflyer
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 8:10 pm

I hope in a couple weeks if the passenger numbers keep climbing, the legacies will add some flights back into their schedules. As others have said, it is very hard to do an efficient connection between some city pairs. At my home airport, IAH, United is generally flying non-hub flights only 2x a day, with a very early morning departure ( 6am-7:30am) and one late evening departure ( 7pm-9pm). Basically they are RONing at outstations. I know this might sound whiny, but I prefer not to have to get up at 4am to make one of those early flights, so I'm sorta stuck with the late night action.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 8:23 pm

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alasizon
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 9:11 pm

32andBelow wrote:
TommyBahama wrote:
I hope so, but I just attempted to book 3different flights for next month. Traveling from a medium size city, only one flight a day on my carrier of choice. All three flights sold out.

Then vote with your wallet.

This is ultimately the best thing to do. If you want to go somewhere and your carrier of choice can't get you there, then value the carrier that can. Building itineraries on UA and DL is hard right now, a lot of people are instead choosing WN and AA based purely on that.

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
I hope in a couple weeks if the passenger numbers keep climbing, the legacies will add some flights back into their schedules. As others have said, it is very hard to do an efficient connection between some city pairs. At my home airport, IAH, United is generally flying non-hub flights only 2x a day, with a very early morning departure ( 6am-7:30am) and one late evening departure ( 7pm-9pm). Basically they are RONing at outstations. I know this might sound whiny, but I prefer not to have to get up at 4am to make one of those early flights, so I'm sorta stuck with the late night action.

You're not the only one, there has been a massive loss of connectivity in UA and DL's systems versus WN and AA which prioritized connectivity at the price of higher fixed costs. June schedules are up for both AA and WN (I don't have access to DL or UA to compare) and no signs of July not increasing as well.

Speaking to local TSA managers, they are preparing for a continuing increase and are re-evaluating their staffing after some struggles that were faced on Sunday in quite a few airports.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 9:35 pm

DL hasn't loaded or adjusted their domestic July schedule yet. It is still pretty close to pre-covid levels. I would imagine they are looking at how many bookings they are getting now as well as the existing reservations out there to determine how much they will be pulling down the schedule in specific markets.

If you notice, they did a massive load/pull-down of their June schedule two weeks ago, and then this past week refined the schedule by adding in additional sections particularly on hub-to-hub and some routes out of ATL. Supposedly there will be some additional sections added for June in this weekend's schedule update as well out of JFK and ATL.

We are in this weird timeframe where by and large they have to maintain service to specific markets although you can tell by how the schedule those 1 flights a day in certain places they really don't care about connectivity. Its more about effective tail and crew routing and avoiding crew overnights while sub-optimizing schedule in some of these very small 1x CRJ markets. Its not about schedule in many cases and the traditional business travelers are still grounded.

Up-gauging is also likely to happen going like some of routes to Florida going from A319 or 738 to 739 & A321.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue May 19, 2020 9:40 pm

Southwest is reporting increased demand

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dallas ... utType=amp
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed May 20, 2020 1:27 am

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
I hope in a couple weeks if the passenger numbers keep climbing, the legacies will add some flights back into their schedules. As others have said, it is very hard to do an efficient connection between some city pairs. At my home airport, IAH, United is generally flying non-hub flights only 2x a day, with a very early morning departure ( 6am-7:30am) and one late evening departure ( 7pm-9pm). Basically they are RONing at outstations. I know this might sound whiny, but I prefer not to have to get up at 4am to make one of those early flights, so I'm sorta stuck with the late night action.

You will see the numbers climb T,F,S,M this week. It’s a leisure holiday with pent up demand.
I know United has added several ad-hoc flights in recent days, and I am sure others are doing the same.

It was noted Anet a couple of days ago that UA and DL are upgauging when they can. Makes sense, with aircraft only doing one or two turns a day, and massive numbers of crew sitting minimum pay reserve.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed May 20, 2020 4:12 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
IAHWorldflyer wrote:
I hope in a couple weeks if the passenger numbers keep climbing, the legacies will add some flights back into their schedules. As others have said, it is very hard to do an efficient connection between some city pairs. At my home airport, IAH, United is generally flying non-hub flights only 2x a day, with a very early morning departure ( 6am-7:30am) and one late evening departure ( 7pm-9pm). Basically they are RONing at outstations. I know this might sound whiny, but I prefer not to have to get up at 4am to make one of those early flights, so I'm sorta stuck with the late night action.

You will see the numbers climb T,F,S,M this week. It’s a leisure holiday with pent up demand.
I know United has added several ad-hoc flights in recent days, and I am sure others are doing the same.

It was noted Anet a couple of days ago that UA and DL are upgauging when they can. Makes sense, with aircraft only doing one or two turns a day, and massive numbers of crew sitting minimum pay reserve.

We need the resorts to start offering packages and this things gonna light off
 
747fan
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed May 20, 2020 7:30 am

This week on AA, a number of flights scheduled on A319 equipment are being upgraded to A321's. Also the evening DFW-LAX/morning LAX-DFW flight that's scheduled on the 788 is regularly getting upgraded to the 789.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed May 20, 2020 5:43 pm

I posted this in the AA thread also, but today John Gustafson VP Cust Exp at briefing stated what AA is seeing that its a narrow 20-30-year-old segment booking and being more opportunistic with low fares that are flying.
Unfortunately, they cant term this a broad improvement since its such a narrow customer segment.
Simultaneously AA announced they would pause all general marketing, instead focus on more direct messing to customers about safety.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu May 21, 2020 11:52 pm

For those looking for a database on travel recovery, BCG put together a portal with booking & search trends, & it will be updated weekly

This graphic does a great job of really showing the time period where airline call centers were overwhelmed
Image

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https://public.tableau.com/profile/the. ... ublish=yes
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SumChristianus
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri May 22, 2020 1:01 pm

WOW! Never thought I'd be excited about 11.9% of normal traffic but yesterday (Thursday), as some on here had predicted was a humdinger: 318,449 screened and up 36% over a week ago. Hope today's is even better!
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tootallsd
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri May 22, 2020 2:47 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
WOW! Never thought I'd be excited about 11.9% of normal traffic but yesterday (Thursday), as some on here had predicted was a humdinger: 318,449 screened and up 36% over a week ago. Hope today's is even better!


For sure, but it is still 90% of year-over-year and roughly in line with a 'normal' day of boarding passengers, not TSA screened passengers, in Atlanta. Just perspective, not shade.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri May 22, 2020 5:22 pm

How many times are people going to comment and say it's not back to normal?

No kidding, I think most here can do basic arithmetic and deduce that 11.9% is roughly a 90% drop.

Passing 10% is an important milestone.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri May 22, 2020 5:23 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
How many times are people going to comment and say it's not back to normal?

No kidding, I think most here can do basic arithmetic and deduce that 11.9% is roughly a 90% drop.

Passing 10% is an important milestone.

We also should compare it to last year which was like the all time high.
 
CMHSRQ
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri May 22, 2020 7:52 pm

I’m sitting on an Allegiant flight, I would estimate is 85-90% full from LCK-CHS
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 23, 2020 1:55 am

I didn’t fly today but headed up north (northern Michigan) on I-75 To our family’s cabin and traffic was as heavy as any holiday weekend as before.
 
DEN1895
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 23, 2020 2:08 am

For an idea of what it looks like at an airport, DEN usually has about 220,000+ passengers a day during the summer or holidays, based off of yesterday and today's numbers here is what it looks like:

Thursday: ≈34,000 pax, 15% of normal
Friday: ≈37,000 pax, 17% of normal

Flights Friday: 590, normal 1800, 33% of normal
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 23, 2020 1:03 pm

348,673 on Friday. 12.5% of normal and taking us back to March 22nd numbers.

There have been some comments on Airliners.net here about some carriers doing much better than others as to % or normal but I also wonder how that varies across airports. If DEN is tracking above the rest of the country there must be some airports (New York?) doing far worse and perhaps some (Atlanta, Charlotte?) that are doing better because carriers haven't cut as much or demand is popping back up due to reopening.

DEN1895 wrote:
Thursday: ≈34,000 pax, 15% of normal
Friday: ≈37,000 pax, 17% of normal


Are any other airports reporting daily trends in all this?
UA DL LH NW AA WN - Hope I don't have to leave WY for a while
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 23, 2020 1:26 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
348,673 on Friday. 12.5% of normal and taking us back to March 22nd numbers.

There have been some comments on Airliners.net here about some carriers doing much better than others as to % or normal but I also wonder how that varies across airports. If DEN is tracking above the rest of the country there must be some airports (New York?) doing far worse and perhaps some (Atlanta, Charlotte?) that are doing better because carriers haven't cut as much or demand is popping back up due to reopening.

DEN1895 wrote:
Thursday: ≈34,000 pax, 15% of normal
Friday: ≈37,000 pax, 17% of normal


Are any other airports reporting daily trends in all this?


West coast of Florida airports are tracking above average, RSW is 25% of normal currently, & expects to be only down 15% by the end of the year.

https://www.news-press.com/story/news/l ... 243987002/

ECP is 30% of normal & growing
https://www.mypanhandle.com/news/the-no ... ars-later/
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freakyrat
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat May 23, 2020 11:50 pm

At my hometown airport SBN American has pretty much kept their pre Covid19 schedule to DFW and CLT. Delta has pulled down their Atlanta and Minneapolis flights and only has one daily flight to DTW where they originally had 4. United has one Morning and One evening flight to Chicago where they were planning 8 flights pre Covid including 2 with E175's. So the only airline that has kept their connectivity is American.

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