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AvroLanc
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:32 pm

I have sat on flights with pretty stagnant air flow until engine startup, non mask wearers should consider this. Not sure this is true of all airplane types?
707, 717, 727, 732, 734, 737 ,738, 7M8, 742, 744, 767, 773, 789.
DC8, 9,10, MD80 ,L1011 ,HSTrident, BAC111, DHComet.
DH8-100, 400, CRJ100,200,700, EM75,90, A310,319,320,321,333
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:53 pm

Another 22% jump. Monday to Monday. Could hit 500000 this weekend
 
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OA412
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:06 pm

Knock it off with off-topic politics. If you wish to discuss politics, you can do so in non aviation.
Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
 
MIflyer12
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:10 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Another 22% jump. Monday to Monday. Could hit 500000 this weekend


Big percentage increases on small numbers do not mean big numbers. This is elementary-school math. Your 500K may not even be 25% of last year's traffic. Do you think U.S. carriers can make money in a market that's down 75%?
 
jetmatt777
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:14 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Another 22% jump. Monday to Monday. Could hit 500000 this weekend


Big percentage increases on small numbers do not mean big numbers. This is elementary-school math. Your 500K may not even be 25% of last year's traffic. Do you think U.S. carriers can make money in a market that's down 75%?


There we have it folks. We can't discuss any gains until the airlines are profitable again.

As has been said many times - everyone in this hread understands current levels are unsustainable and unprofitable. However it is nice watching the day to day increases in numbers, it will take a while - no one is saying otherwise.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:26 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Another 22% jump. Monday to Monday. Could hit 500000 this weekend


Big percentage increases on small numbers do not mean big numbers. This is elementary-school math. Your 500K may not even be 25% of last year's traffic. Do you think U.S. carriers can make money in a market that's down 75%?

Thanks captain. However we are discussion the current tsa traffic counts and their relation to the low points of corona. Not their relation to the highest traveled year on record.

You have to go through every single number between the low and the high to get back to normal.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:08 am

80,000 more over last Wednesday. I suspect we’ll be approaching 500k this weekend.
 
williaminsd
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:24 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Another 22% jump. Monday to Monday. Could hit 500000 this weekend


Big percentage increases on small numbers do not mean big numbers. This is elementary-school math. Your 500K may not even be 25% of last year's traffic. Do you think U.S. carriers can make money in a market that's down 75%?


Has anyone made that claim? This is elementary school reading...
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:54 pm

Broke 500,000 yesterday. We got to 502,209!
UA DL LH NW AA WN - Hope I don't have to leave WY for a while
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:18 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Broke 500,000 yesterday. We got to 502,209!

It’s increasing rapidly now.
 
Seat1F
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:12 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Broke 500,000 yesterday. We got to 502,209!

I'm shocked. I can't image why anyone would voluntarily choose to travel right now. Go figure.
 
williaminsd
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:34 pm

Seat1F wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
Broke 500,000 yesterday. We got to 502,209!

I'm shocked. I can't image why anyone would voluntarily choose to travel right now. Go figure.


Aren't you glad it's your choice and no one forces you either way? You get to stay home and I get to travel. Win-win!
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:14 pm

Seat1F wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
Broke 500,000 yesterday. We got to 502,209!

I'm shocked. I can't image why anyone would voluntarily choose to travel right now. Go figure.



It has probably never been safer from a virus standpoint then it is right now. Not to mention months of shut in and less crowds making the travel experience much more enjoyable. Aside from money I can't imagine anyone not traveling right now.
 
tphuang
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:15 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
Seat1F wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
Broke 500,000 yesterday. We got to 502,209!

I'm shocked. I can't image why anyone would voluntarily choose to travel right now. Go figure.



It has probably never been safer from a virus standpoint then it is right now. Not to mention months of shut in and less crowds making the travel experience much more enjoyable. Aside from money I can't imagine anyone not traveling right now.


In the sunbelt states, the daily cases are rising and the death are rising.

Outside of northeastern states, which have shutdown the longest, it's really hard to say "it has probably never been safer for a virus standpoint". It's more like people are just tired of staying at home.
 
luckyone
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:34 pm

tphuang wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
Seat1F wrote:
I'm shocked. I can't image why anyone would voluntarily choose to travel right now. Go figure.



It has probably never been safer from a virus standpoint then it is right now. Not to mention months of shut in and less crowds making the travel experience much more enjoyable. Aside from money I can't imagine anyone not traveling right now.


In the sunbelt states, the daily cases are rising and the death are rising.

Outside of northeastern states, which have shutdown the longest, it's really hard to say "it has probably never been safer for a virus standpoint". It's more like people are just tired of staying at home.

The reality is the genie is out of the bottle, and at this point there is little we can do to stop the virus short of a full blown shutdown for weeks that literally means nobody goes anywhere or does anything, no food is processed, etc etc. We all know that is not going to happen in the US even if it didn't negatively impact the economy. Hopefully, by this point, testing capacity is on some level adequate and hospital protocols have been at least considered. On the plus side, it now takes a matter of hours to get a COVID result vs. the weeks it took in late February/early March, and we now have a better understanding of the illness course and epidemiology, and we're now seeing that pretty much no matter where you live, the virus can hit.
 
Seat1F
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:41 pm

tphuang wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
Seat1F wrote:
I'm shocked. I can't image why anyone would voluntarily choose to travel right now. Go figure.



It has probably never been safer from a virus standpoint then it is right now. Not to mention months of shut in and less crowds making the travel experience much more enjoyable. Aside from money I can't imagine anyone not traveling right now.


In the sunbelt states, the daily cases are rising and the death are rising.

Outside of northeastern states, which have shutdown the longest, it's really hard to say "it has probably never been safer for a virus standpoint". It's more like people are just tired of staying at home.

You are right of course. Other people just want to pretend things are safe and that travel is no problem. Meanwhile Arizona and some parts of Texas are close to declaring COVID emergencies due to increased hospitalizations in the last few days.
 
twinotter
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:09 am

williaminsd wrote:

No, it's called refusal to obey the lying State and to question authority, which people in your generation USED to do.


LOL, anyone want to bet whether or not he would grab an oxygen mask during a rapid decompression? Or if he would instruct his surgical team to forego masks and sterilization of instruments? Partisans are odd.
 
williaminsd
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:57 am

twinotter wrote:
williaminsd wrote:

No, it's called refusal to obey the lying State and to question authority, which people in your generation USED to do.


LOL, anyone want to bet whether or not he would grab an oxygen mask during a rapid decompression? Or if he would instruct his surgical team to forego masks and sterilization of instruments? Partisans are odd.


Meh... with every passing day, more people believe as I do, the impotent shaming attempts notwithstanding. Just flew SMF-SAN this evening: even with middle seats blocked on the E175, 38 on board, effectively sold-out (five on stand-by). Enjoy your day (at home).
 
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qf789
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:42 am

Could we please just discuss the topic without all the off topic comments, leave those out of the discussion
Forum Moderator
 
Cedar
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 5:15 am

Next milestone is 1 million - call out your dates and let's see who gets it.

Cedar
 
DylanHarvey
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 5:40 am

Cedar wrote:
Next milestone is 1 million - call out your dates and let's see who gets it.

Cedar

I’ll say July 17th. Wild guess. I can see 750k in 2.5-3 weeks
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 5:55 am

Cedar wrote:
Next milestone is 1 million - call out your dates and let's see who gets it.

Cedar

I’ll see what Sunday’s numbers are. I think we could hit 600 Sunday. I wasn’t expecting 500 on Thursday. That’s for sure.
 
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spinotter
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:39 am

twinotter wrote:
williaminsd wrote:

No, it's called refusal to obey the lying State and to question authority, which people in your generation USED to do.


LOL, anyone want to bet whether or not he would grab an oxygen mask during a rapid decompression? Or if he would instruct his surgical team to forego masks and sterilization of instruments? Partisans are odd.


The lying state? Which state is it that lies? All of them? And what is the content of their lies? Are we not in the middle of the worst pandemic in a century? Is that a lie too?
 
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spinotter
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:48 am

twinotter wrote:
williaminsd wrote:

No, it's called refusal to obey the lying State and to question authority, which people in your generation USED to do.


LOL, anyone want to bet whether or not he would grab an oxygen mask during a rapid decompression? Or if he would instruct his surgical team to forego masks and sterilization of instruments? Partisans are odd.


The lying state? Which state is it that lies? All of them? And what is the content of their lies? Are we not in the middle of the worst pandemic in a century? Is that a lie too? I understand that this is an aviation website and people are cheering on the rising numbers, and eventually we will equal and surpass pre-pandemic figures, but the lying state? Is that necessary? Salutary?
 
MrBretz
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:29 pm

I am not exactly sure where this article goes but I thought here might be a good spot. An LATimes travel writer talks about his experience during 2 recent short airline flights. Apparently, the new normal is to keep your mask on, your head staring at your phone, and ignoring everyone.

https://www.latimes.com/travel/story/20 ... o-friendly
 
incitatus
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:38 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Another 22% jump. Monday to Monday. Could hit 500000 this weekend


Big percentage increases on small numbers do not mean big numbers. This is elementary-school math. Your 500K may not even be 25% of last year's traffic. Do you think U.S. carriers can make money in a market that's down 75%?


Big and steady percentage increases on small numbers mean big numbers. This is middle-school math - compound interest - but we need not to patronize anyone.

I do not expect the 25% growth rate to stick. But even sustained increases at lower rates can mean airlines are on a viable footing before the end of the year. By all means, 25% increase over a week is to be celebrated and deserving of headlines.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:50 pm

Anyone have Friday’s numbers?
 
williaminsd
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:59 pm

According to an informed poster on the SMF thread, on Thursday, the TSA processed over 5000 pax @ SMF for the first time since March 18th. My own flight to SAN yesterday had 37 booked on Alaska's 76-seat E175, plus six on stand-by. That's effectively a 99% LF when accounting for the 32 blocked seats, and >56% LF if using total capacity.

Despite the hopes of some, the industry, and the economy are on the way back and vigorously so.

While it's important to remember that 2019 was a record year for air travel and is unlikely to be matched in near future, airline viability and a return of prosperity seem to be on a pace unimaginable a couple of months ago.

Most people consider that good news...
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 5:26 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Anyone have Friday’s numbers?

They are only posting mom-fri now. Unless someone has a connection.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 5:26 pm

williaminsd wrote:
According to an informed poster on the SMF thread, on Thursday, the TSA processed over 5000 pax @ SMF for the first time since March 18th. My own flight to SAN yesterday had 37 booked on Alaska's 76-seat E175, plus six on stand-by. That's effectively a 99% LF when accounting for the 32 blocked seats, and >56% LF if using total capacity.

Despite the hopes of some, the industry, and the economy are on the way back and vigorously so.

While it's important to remember that 2019 was a record year for air travel and is unlikely to be matched in near future, airline viability and a return of prosperity seem to be on a pace unimaginable a couple of months ago.

Most people consider that good news...

I think the seat blockages are going to be short lived at this rate.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 5:41 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Cedar wrote:
Next milestone is 1 million - call out your dates and let's see who gets it.

Cedar

I’ll see what Sunday’s numbers are. I think we could hit 600 Sunday. I wasn’t expecting 500 on Thursday. That’s for sure.


Next Friday & Monday should be a sizable increase with Father's day weekend, probably a decent amount of VFR travel
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 13, 2020 8:05 pm

Predicting 530,000 for yesterday and 430,000 for today based on trends. Unfortunately I don't think we pass 1,000,000 until middle July though. We seem to be doubling about every four weeks but further increases might not necessarily follow the current trend (either increasing if states open up faster and people get more comfortable travelling or decreasing growth if there's a de-facto lockdown and many people simply won't travel at all).

I want to be an optimist and hope for ~75% of normal by end of summer (~September). With lower load factors that might get us close in capacity to where we were at before all this (maybe ~85% or so) although revenue will of course be down for a while.

I again apologize, but I will be out of internet access for several days and unable to update this spreadsheet until around the 20th - sorry about that but I appreciate all who are posting updates here in the thread and I will get the sheet updated as soon as possible after I get back
UA DL LH NW AA WN - Hope I don't have to leave WY for a while
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
williaminsd
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jun 14, 2020 12:58 am

More good news on recovery as US airlines bring hundreds of jets back into service. As SumChristianus and others have noted, at this rate, we'll see a million a day well before August 1.

That is nothing short of spectacular.

The aviation industry, and the American economy, are recovering at a pace unimaginable just two months ago.

https://www.flightglobal.com/us-airline ... 20.article
 
Cedar
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jun 14, 2020 4:25 am

32andBelow wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
According to an informed poster on the SMF thread, on Thursday, the TSA processed over 5000 pax @ SMF for the first time since March 18th. My own flight to SAN yesterday had 37 booked on Alaska's 76-seat E175, plus six on stand-by. That's effectively a 99% LF when accounting for the 32 blocked seats, and >56% LF if using total capacity.

Despite the hopes of some, the industry, and the economy are on the way back and vigorously so.

While it's important to remember that 2019 was a record year for air travel and is unlikely to be matched in near future, airline viability and a return of prosperity seem to be on a pace unimaginable a couple of months ago.

Most people consider that good news...

I think the seat blockages are going to be short lived at this rate.


The seat blockages (not meant in any negative way towards carriers) are nothing but a PR stunt. There is no way to sustain this. They knew the flights wouldn't be full and and used that to their advantage. Once the flights get full, this will quickly change. That's why UA & some of the LCC's had the right idea in saying there was no guarantee, but they would try. Not to mention, for those concerned - that middle seat being empty only left maybe a 1 foot gap between you and the next person. Unless you are in the middle section of a widebody with 4 seats & 2 middle being empty.

Cedar
 
KFTG
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jun 14, 2020 5:33 am

Glad to see things progressing as they are. Based on the latest Rt numbers, 33 US states have "contained" COVID-19 (Rt must be less than 1.0, see https://rt.live/).
The "coronavirus industrial complex" (including their stalwarts in the US media and those who consume the talking points hook-line-sinker) will fight hard to keep us "boxed in" for as long as they can.
We must resist this and return to normal while keeping the Rt below 1.0.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:18 pm

Surpassed 20% of last years passengers on Sunday, ~544k

At least 20% growth each day (vs same day previous week) for the past 11 days, or an average growth of 25% over those 11 days.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
CRJ5000
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:25 pm

Cedar wrote:
Next milestone is 1 million - call out your dates and let's see who gets it.

Cedar


I'm being optimistic here, but I think we could see 1 million sometime over the 4th of July weekend. Multiple airlines have heavier schedules for July so there's significantly more capacity, and the holiday weekend will help. I've looked at loads on a few different airlines and they are already promising a few weeks out.
However, if the spike in cases throughout the USA causes a few places to go back into lockdown, then I don't think there's a chance to even get close to a million anytime soon.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:38 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
Cedar wrote:
Next milestone is 1 million - call out your dates and let's see who gets it.

Cedar


I'm being optimistic here, but I think we could see 1 million sometime over the 4th of July weekend. Multiple airlines have heavier schedules for July so there's significantly more capacity, and the holiday weekend will help. I've looked at loads on a few different airlines and they are already promising a few weeks out.
However, if the spike in cases throughout the USA causes a few places to go back into lockdown, then I don't think there's a chance to even get close to a million anytime soon.

Two weeks ago I would have said no, the trend is for about 825,000 on July 4th.

Today the trend is for about 950,000/day by then. So maybe.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
KFTG
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:22 am

544,046 for 6/14
Let 'er rip

Also, LA county re-opened on 12Jun.
 
KFTG
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:05 am

If current trend continues, we will see ~1.1 million by 2nd week of July (if not earlier, due to holiday travel).
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:49 pm

576.5k for Thursday, should hit 600k sometime between today & Monday.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:47 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
576.5k for Thursday, should hit 600k sometime between today & Monday.

We’ll see it tomorrow for sure. Another huge jump over last Thursday.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:56 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
576.5k for Thursday, should hit 600k sometime between today & Monday.

We’ll see it tomorrow for sure. Another huge jump over last Thursday.
 
flight152
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:13 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
576.5k for Thursday, should hit 600k sometime between today & Monday.

We’ll see it tomorrow for sure. Another huge jump over last Thursday.

They haven’t been updating the numbers on the weekends now, unfortunately.
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:31 pm

flight152 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
576.5k for Thursday, should hit 600k sometime between today & Monday.

We’ll see it tomorrow for sure. Another huge jump over last Thursday.

They haven’t been updating the numbers on the weekends now, unfortunately.

But tomorrow I meant today I forget we are always talking about the day before. Yes we won’t validate it till Monday.
 
Cedar
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:50 am

EWR has fully opened concessions due to the increase in pax, and airtrain has resumed normal operations.
NJ entered phase 2 last Monday, this Monday will see even more reopening
NY will be entering phase 2 Monday as well

Expect to see alot more travel

Cedarg
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:08 pm

I think we will see growth slow down for a bit, until carriers switch over to their July schedule.

There isn't much capacity being added week over week, outside of WN, and most carriers are getting close to LF caps.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:11 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
I think we will see growth slow down for a bit, until carriers switch over to their July schedule.

There isn't much capacity being added week over week, outside of WN, and most carriers are getting close to LF caps.

That’s what I thought after Memorial Day but we’ve just been going and going.
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:19 am

Sorry about the delay in updating the chart while I was out of access and thanks for those who commented on the numbers in the meantime.

Once again it's at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Chart just updated and I'm also like others looking and hoping for 600,000 to have been hit on Friday or over the weekend.
UA DL LH NW AA WN - Hope I don't have to leave WY for a while
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
keithvh2001
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:24 pm

FWIW, we did not hit 600,000 over the Friday, Saturday, Sunday weekend. We came somewhat close (590,456 on Sunday being the highest number).

I'm not trying to be negative, but there may be a cause for concern. For 13 consecutive days, from June 4 to June 16, our week-over-week increase was 21.8% or higher. For the 5 days since, June 17 to June 21, that week-over-week increase has only maxed out at 16.0% (the min was 8.5%). We may be seeing the rate of increase slowing.

Time will tell - back in the 28-May to 2-June time period, we had 5 of 6 days where the week-over-week increase was 6.2% or lower (1 of these days had negative numbers). But that was also comping against the Memorial Day period. That dynamic doesn't seem to be in play as much as regards these last 5 days.
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