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32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:38 pm

keithvh2001 wrote:
FWIW, we did not hit 600,000 over the Friday, Saturday, Sunday weekend. We came somewhat close (590,456 on Sunday being the highest number).

I'm not trying to be negative, but there may be a cause for concern. For 13 consecutive days, from June 4 to June 16, our week-over-week increase was 21.8% or higher. For the 5 days since, June 17 to June 21, that week-over-week increase has only maxed out at 16.0% (the min was 8.5%). We may be seeing the rate of increase slowing.

Time will tell - back in the 28-May to 2-June time period, we had 5 of 6 days where the week-over-week increase was 6.2% or lower (1 of these days had negative numbers). But that was also comping against the Memorial Day period. That dynamic doesn't seem to be in play as much as regards these last 5 days.

Maybe the other poster was on to something when suggesting we are reaching the current capacity limits. Maybe slower till 1jul?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:10 am

32andBelow wrote:
keithvh2001 wrote:
FWIW, we did not hit 600,000 over the Friday, Saturday, Sunday weekend. We came somewhat close (590,456 on Sunday being the highest number).

I'm not trying to be negative, but there may be a cause for concern. For 13 consecutive days, from June 4 to June 16, our week-over-week increase was 21.8% or higher. For the 5 days since, June 17 to June 21, that week-over-week increase has only maxed out at 16.0% (the min was 8.5%). We may be seeing the rate of increase slowing.

Time will tell - back in the 28-May to 2-June time period, we had 5 of 6 days where the week-over-week increase was 6.2% or lower (1 of these days had negative numbers). But that was also comping against the Memorial Day period. That dynamic doesn't seem to be in play as much as regards these last 5 days.

Maybe the other poster was on to something when suggesting we are reaching the current capacity limits. Maybe slower till 1jul?


None of the US carriers have increased capacity since the first week of June, with the exception of WN.

You can't sustain those growth rates we saw earlier in the month without more capacity. Recall DL & B6 still have no middle seat restrictions, and as a result both are operating well under 20% of their normal seating capacity, UA is only operating at 15% capacity.

https://jettip.net/blog/22-june-weekly- ... fic-report

Image

Growth rates won't be steady, and we'll likely see growth rates rise and fall over the course of the year
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:27 am

We will see a large bump in TSA screening in July as everyone have been adding capacity. What kind of revenue increase we will see is a different story. I fully expect yield to get trashed with NK/F9 bringing back this much Florida capacity.
 
chrisair
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:52 am

keithvh2001 wrote:
I'm not trying to be negative, but there may be a cause for concern. For 13 consecutive days, from June 4 to June 16, our week-over-week increase was 21.8% or higher. For the 5 days since, June 17 to June 21, that week-over-week increase has only maxed out at 16.0% (the min was 8.5%). We may be seeing the rate of increase slowing.


This will not be a linear growth trend. Look at the long range trends, not day over day. Same thing goes for stocks, business, COVID infection rates etc.

What I've been thinking about over the last few days is what happens after the summer period ends and if business travel remains soft. This bump in (mostly) leisure travel probably won't last if kids go back to school.
 
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TheLunchbox
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:06 pm

 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:58 pm

So then we casually break 600k on a Monday. Lol!
 
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admanager
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:19 pm

Thanks for the ongoing update. Giving the thread a bump and to comment June 25 was 23% of 2019. Highest % yet during the crisis.
 
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2nd2none
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:25 pm

admanager wrote:
Thanks for the ongoing update. Giving the thread a bump and to comment June 25 was 23% of 2019. Highest % yet during the crisis.


On June 25 2020 it was down 77 % from a year ago!
 
32andBelow
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:07 pm

2nd2none wrote:
admanager wrote:
Thanks for the ongoing update. Giving the thread a bump and to comment June 25 was 23% of 2019. Highest % yet during the crisis.


On June 25 2020 it was down 77 % from a year ago!

Yah we are following the recovery. Not compare it to the busiest travel year in history.
 
Cedar
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:56 pm

Weekend numbers are as follows:

6/28/2020 633,810
6/27/2020 546,310
6/26/2020 632,984

Cedar
 
Osubuckeyes
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:06 pm

Cedar wrote:
Weekend numbers are as follows:

6/28/2020 633,810
6/27/2020 546,310
6/26/2020 632,984

Cedar


Still close to a 10% growth maintained week over week. I would imagine that is hitting close to the available capacity cap for many major city pairings.

Very interested to see how numbers progress with added capacity in July, combined with upcoming holiday weekend, rising case numbers, and some new state travel restrictions.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:14 pm

Finally broke 25% on Monday, with 25.5% of LYs traffic
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jfklganyc
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:13 pm

I wonder if we take a hit this week with all the news across the sunbelt...

Or are people just going to press on?

It will be interesting to see
 
IAHWorldflyer
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:00 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
I wonder if we take a hit this week with all the news across the sunbelt...

Or are people just going to press on?

It will be interesting to see


Yes. I think it will depend on how much, and where, states shut things down again. I personally have a ticket to southern California for late July. I booked it to do something for a few days this summer. Right now, I'm in wait and see approach. As long as the beaches there are open, and restaurants can do around 50% capacity, I'm going. If those things close, I will need to change my ticket.
 
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2nd2none
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:29 pm

TSA June 30 2020 500,054 (21,3 % of same day 2019 2,347,767)
 
tphuang
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:39 pm

We should get pretty good bump for this weekend. Will be interesting to see where the numbers are after that.
 
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2nd2none
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:11 pm

TSA July 1 2020: 626,516 (24,6 % of same day 2019 2,547,889)

and New Covid19 cases in the US July 1 2020 +51,097
 
KFTG
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:11 pm

If you’re going to start including case count in your thread, may want to track deaths as well, which are still continuing to decline.
In before someone says “yeah but wait two weeks”. How many two weeks do we have to wait until we collectively acknowledge that?
 
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2nd2none
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:23 pm

KFTG wrote:
If you’re going to start including case count in your thread, may want to track deaths as well, which are still continuing to decline.
In before someone says “yeah but wait two weeks”. How many two weeks do we have to wait until we collectively acknowledge that?


They are not relevant, new cases are because they may result in US domestic lockdowns and less need for flights.
 
joeblow10
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:44 pm

2nd2none wrote:
KFTG wrote:
If you’re going to start including case count in your thread, may want to track deaths as well, which are still continuing to decline.
In before someone says “yeah but wait two weeks”. How many two weeks do we have to wait until we collectively acknowledge that?


They are not relevant, new cases are because they may result in US domestic lockdowns and less need for flights.


I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.
 
tphuang
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:05 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
KFTG wrote:
If you’re going to start including case count in your thread, may want to track deaths as well, which are still continuing to decline.
In before someone says “yeah but wait two weeks”. How many two weeks do we have to wait until we collectively acknowledge that?


They are not relevant, new cases are because they may result in US domestic lockdowns and less need for flights.


I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.


If some of these states continually sees 20 to 40% positive rate, hospital system completely overwhelmed and existing measures not working, then they will shutdown. Frankly, people/businesses will stay at home before the governors announce these things.
 
joeblow10
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:10 pm

tphuang wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
2nd2none wrote:

They are not relevant, new cases are because they may result in US domestic lockdowns and less need for flights.


I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.


If some of these states continually sees 20 to 40% positive rate, hospital system completely overwhelmed and existing measures not working, then they will shutdown. Frankly, people/businesses will stay at home before the governors announce these things.


I think people will stay home on their own, no doubt, but I doubt the governors will be enacting another stay at home order. Frankly - nobody is going to listen. I read an interesting analysis yesterday, can’t remember where for the life of me, but it talked about how even this seemingly massive surge hails in comparison to the true number of new, undetected cases the US was seeing in March/April, at least thus far. AZ and FL may be hard hit given the elderly slew of the population, but outside of those, I don’t see people rushing back in their homes. And how many times have we heard “hospitals are going to be overwhelmed” in the past 4 months, only to never see it come to fruition outside of NYC.
 
tphuang
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:18 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:

I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel.


If some of these states continually sees 20 to 40% positive rate, hospital system completely overwhelmed and existing measures not working, then they will shutdown. Frankly, people/businesses will stay at home before the governors announce these things.


I think people will stay home on their own, no doubt, but I doubt the governors will be enacting another stay at home order. Frankly - nobody is going to listen. I read an interesting analysis yesterday, can’t remember where for the life of me, but it talked about how even this seemingly massive surge hails in comparison to the true number of new, undetected cases the US was seeing in March/April, at least thus far. AZ and FL may be hard hit given the elderly slew of the population, but outside of those, I don’t see people rushing back in their homes. And how many times have we heard “hospitals are going to be overwhelmed” in the past 4 months, only to never see it come to fruition outside of NYC.


We are at the start of surge in Arizona and Florida right now. It took time for tri-state area hospital to get overwhelmed and it stayed that way for weeks. We will see what happens in 2 or 3 weeks.

Back to the topic, we should see quite large increase in TSA numbers this week and next as all the additional capacities will bring additional travelers through TSA. Would be interesting to see what happens later this month since bookings have apparently leveled off now.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:26 pm

I have some thoughts, on these stats. Those that die seem to be about 4-6 weeks after infection. At this time with more resources it is likely that people are being found sooner after infection than at the beginning for the US, therefore the difference between rise in infections and rise in deaths will take longer. Secondly two of the states that currently are having high daily positive rates (Texas and Florida) also have had much lower death per infection that most other parts of the country and it has been very noticeable for months now. The possibilities than I can come up with are 1) they have a very good testing program and finding nearly everyone infected 2) There is a different demographic being infected than in other states 3) Deaths not being attributed to COVID that would have been in other states. You can choose which one you think is correct and maybe we will see data later which will answer that question.

So even with an out of control infection I do not expect the deaths to dramatically rise, yet.

The shutdown is done, when a few people die it was shocking, when a lot of people die it becomes normalized and we are just going to ignore it I guess. This is fairly normal I can quote many examples. I suspect that the demographic that can more afford to fly are also the ones who will be less likely to want to (Older, more educated, higher payed). So even if the economy opens up a lot of potential business will be sitting on the sideline. Air transport was never shutdown, the decline was through a drop in demand, (some of which was due to other things being shutdown to be fair)
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:52 pm

This thread has gone way off topic. Virus discussion, be it aviation based or non aviation based, belongs in those respective threads. This thread exists for TSA screening numbers. Please discuss that here, or the thread may be locked.

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